Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Parma’s attacking midfielder Sebastian Giovinco
"I fully expect Franco Colomba’s team (Parma) to turn four home wins from six into five from seven."
After a disappointing loss in the Coppa Italia last week, Parma need to get back to winning ways in Serie A as soon as possible, and Dave Farrar believes Sunday night is the perfect time to start.
Parma v Palermo, KO: Sunday 19:45, live on ESPN, Match Odds: Parma [2.18], Palermo [4.2], The Draw [3.2]
Given the strong side that they put out against Serie B Verona last week, Parma were clearly keen to have a go at winning this season's Coppa Italia. A shock defeat meant that the focus for the rest of the season at the Ennio Tardini will be on finishing as high in the league table as they can.
Parma are [2.18] to get back to winning ways on Sunday against Palermo, and I think that rates as a bit of value. Palermo are strong at the Renzo Barbera, but dreadful on the road. They're yet to score a goal away from home, and while Parma's oddly leaky defence will give Devis Mangia's team a chance of netting, the home side should be too strong.
Sebastian Giovinco is the key man for Parma: the OPTA statistics show that he has been involved in nine of the fifteen goals that his team have chalked up, scoring seven and providing two assists. With Palermo likely to set up defensively, he will have to find a way to get into space, but the former Juventus man is adept at doing that and I expect him to hurt Palermo. The Rosanero have, after all, conceded 31 goals in their last 16 away games. I fully expect Franco Colomba's team to turn four home wins from six into five from seven.
Recommendation: Back Parma to beat Palermo at [2.18]
Fiorentina v Roma, KO: Sunday 14:00, Match Odds: Fiorentina [2.44], Roma [3.4], The Draw [3.3]
Delio Rossi is still looking for his first win since he took over at Fiorentina, and as an ex Lazio man, I'm sure that he'd be delighted if it arrived against Roma. Rossi had a good record against the city rivals on the Lazio bench, winning three derbies, but he may struggle to inspire this average La Viola team to hit those sort of heights.
Discipline would appear to be a problem at Fiorentina, with Alessio Cerci and Andrea Lazzari fined for staying out too late after last week's Coppa Italia win, and with the former Roma player Cerci likely to be left out of the side against his old club, Fiorentina could be struggling for any kind of creativity. It's now three games in a row in which Fiorentina have failed to score, and it's shocking that a team with their tradition should be one of the least productive teams in Serie A. Only Lecce and Cesena have scored fewer goals.
Roma are no great shakes either - recent victories over some of the lower lights in the division have papered over the cracks, but the fact remains that this Roma team doesn't pass the ball at pace and lacks incision.
The draw at [3.4] looks tempting, but I'll go a little further than that and take the risk that Roma will fail to get on the scoresheet for just the third time in their last twenty one away games. The [9.2] which is available about the game finishing 0-0 looks too big, as does the [2.8] about the game being goalless at half time. We should take advantage of both prices.
Recommendation Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [9.2]
Back 0-0 Half Time Score @ [2.8]
Finally, a word on what looks like a tempting treble this weekend. Juventus are [1.29] to beat Cesena at home, Lazio are [1.4] to beat Novara, and Napoli [1.4] to prove too good for Lecce.
This might look like a steal (as a couple of people have already told me this week) but I'd be careful: Napoli have an awful record in their matches immediately before a Champions League game, Juventus looked out on their feet after that classic against Napoli, and a strong Lazio team couldn't win at Vaslui in the Europa League on Thursday night. I think that one of the legs of this "certainty" looks like it might fail, and I'll continue my policy of avoiding bets like this.
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