Follow The Money: Make it an Amazing day

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Amazing Blue Sky win under an amazing blue sky?

"Amazing Blue Sky won at Haydock over 10 furlongs in May with today’s jockey on board and the forecast good to firm should be suitable."

Today's FTM bets come from the meetings at Pontefract and Wolverhampton

Starting at Pontefract in the 14:15 Handicap (Class 5) over 1m2f Amazing Blue Sky has been heavily backed from [12.5] in to [5.3]. The 6yo gelding finished sixth last time out at Thirsk, however he now drops down to 10f, and that looks to be a more suitable trip. He won at Haydock over 10 furlongs in May with today's jockey on board and the forecast good to firm should be suitable. With so many runners this looks a reasonably competitive race.

Over to Wolverhampton in the 14:30 Maiden (Class 6) over 1m 4f Hidden Valley has been supported in to [1.93] from [2.72]. The 3yo filly ran in a Listed race and finished second in a class 5 maiden at Kempton last time out. This is her easiest task to date, with her main market rival being A Boy Name Suzi. She steps up in trip today, and though she has under achieved so far, she looks the most likely winner in the field today.

Finally at the 14:45 Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) over 1m (Class 5) over 1m Qeethaara has drifted out to [4.6] from [3.45]. The 7yo mare won last time out at Warwick last time out and she escapes a penalty for that win and should have a reasonable chance of success today. Her win came as rather surprising given that she finished last in her two previous starts, and that was her first win for three years and punters may be put off by her low win rate.

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Matthew Jarvis Wins First WSOP Bracelet

World Series of Poker 2011 / Matthew Pitt / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Matthew Jarvis (Photo credit: WSOP.com/PokerNews)

Matthew Jarvis has become the $5,000 No Limit Hold'em Six-handed Champion after outlasting a star-studded field of 732 to win his first World Series of Poker bracelet and boost Canada's haul to five wins at this year's WSOP.

Jarvis should be a familiar name to you poker aficionados and rightly so as just seven months ago he reached the final table of the $10,000 WSOP Main Event to become a "November Niner." He eventually finished in eighth place, good for $1,045,743 but was still bitterly disappointed not to have really challenged for the bracelet but he has now more than made amends by winning one of the toughest live fields on record.

Seventy-two players made it to the money including Nenad Medic, Daniel Alaei, Shaun Deeb, Isaac Haxton, Faraz Jaka, Daniel Negreanu, Shane Schleger and reigning WSOP Main Event Champion, Jonathan Duhamel. A number of British players also made it into the money places, the one going the deepest being Martins Adeniya who was eliminated in 19th place, worth $24,942.

The six-handed final table was reached late into Day 3 after Dan O'Brien was eliminated in seventh place and the players were seated and chipped up as follows:

Seat 1: Matt Vengrin: 760,000
Seat 2: Wesley Pantling: 1,880,000
Seat 3: Robert Merulla: 2,550,000
Seat 4: Justin Flitz: 3,625,000
Seat 5: Matt Jarvis: 1,680,000
Seat 6: Tore Lukashaugen: 720,000

Matt Vengrin had taken a few hits to his stack from the start of the final table and was down to 250,000 chips and with blinds of 12,000/24,000/4,000a he looked down at QcJd and open-shoved from the cutoff. Wesley Pantling, on the button, made the call with As5d and it was off to the races, with Pantling holding the advantage. His lead was soon almost unassailable as the flop came down Ac-7s-8c and when the turn and river were the 4c and 8s respectively it was game over for Vengrin.

Shortly afterwards and Tore Lukashaugen was following Vengrin to the rail after clashing with Justin Flitz. The latter opened to 70,000 on the button (blinds had risen to 15,000/30,000/5a) and when the action was on Lukashaugen he moved all in for what turned out to be 530,000. Flitz made the call and turned over AhQs, which was up against the QhQd of Lukashaugen. The final board ran out 2s-As-3h-Td-9c, which meant Lukashaugen was eliminated in fifth place and Flitz continued to chip up.

The fourth place finisher was Robert Merulla who went from hero to zero in record time. At the time of Lukashaugen's elimination Merulla was the chip leader but after taking a few hits to his stack he found himself having to do battle with just 1,300,000 chips. He opened on the button to 70,000 and when Flitz three-bet to 195,000, Merulla moved all in for the rest of his stack. Flitz asked for a count and when he was informed of the amount he made the call. Merulla held Ah8s but Flitz had him crushed with a dominating AsQh. By the river the five community cards read 5s-9d-Js-7s-2s, gifting Flitz the nut flush and sending Merulla to the cashier's cage.

Pantling was the man who came third to leave Jarvis and Flitz to do battle heads up for the title. Pantling was down to 1,200,000, or 30 big blinds, and these found there way into the middle when he initially opened with a raise to 95,000 only to see Jarvis move all in afterwards. Pantling quickly called and revealed his AdJc, forcing a sheepish looking Jarvis to turn over Qd8d. The Kc-6h-5c flop failed to alter anything but the Qh on the turn propelled Jarvis into the lead. The 6s on the river was not what Pantling was looking for and he left the final table $317,136 richer than when he had started. Not a bad day in the office by anyone's standards.

Going into heads-up Jarvis lead by 7,105,000 to 3,795,000 and the stacks stayed the same for almost four hours. Then, towards the very end of play, the pair sprung into action and Flitz managed to double up with 9d9s against Jarvis' pocket fours and then even took a 2,500,000 chip lead, but a huge hand at the end of the night saw Jarvis catapulted back into a commanding lead. A preflop raising war broke out that saw the AsTh of Jarvis taking on the 7c7h of Flitz. The dealer burned and put out the 8d-Qh-Js flop, giving Jarvis outs to double gutshot straight. The dealer burned another card and put out the Td on the turn, improving Jarvis to a pair of tens. The river was the 3c and with that Jarvis had retaken the lead in emphatic style, a massive 8,150,000 to 2,750,000 lead.

The one-on-one battle had to be paused as ten-levels of play had been completed so the duo returned to the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino on Sunday afternoon to finish their battle. Quite ironically it only lasted five hands before it was all over. With blinds now 50,000/100,000/10,000a Flitz open-shoved with Kd9d and Jarvis snap-called with As8h. Neither player improved as the board ran out 5h-3h-6d-2s-3d but Jarvis had the best hand thanks to his ace-kicker, and just seven months after falling at the last hurdle in the Main Event Jarvis had become a WSOP champion.

An overwhelmed Jarvis had this to say about scooping his first bracelet, "You dream of a moment like this from the first time you start playing poker. To win and event like this with as tough a field as this was, is an amazing feeling."

Final table payouts

1.) Matthew Jarvis: $808,538
2.) Justin Flitz: $499,855
3.) Wesley Pantling: $317,136
4.) Robert Merulla: $208,281
5.) Tore Lukas haugen: $141,125
6.) Matt Vengrin: $98,567

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The Punter's De-Brief: The BMW International and the Travelers Championship

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Pablo Larrazabal – The deserved winner of the BMW International

"Punters need to remember the four bogeys Garcia made in five holes. In short, he blew it... again. It’s great to see El Nino returning to form but on this evidence, he’s still going to find it hard to cross the line."

For the second time in three weeks our man just misses out on a monster-priced winner in Europe...

Pablo Larrazabal eventually claimed the BMW International title after a lengthy play-off with compatriot Sergio Garcia. It took five holes and a three-putt by Sergio on the 18th hole to separate the pair. Both have now secured a place in next month's Open Championship and because Martin Kaymer only finished in a tie for 18th, Rory McIlroy moves up a place to third in the world rankings.

At the Travelers Championship, Fredrik Jacobson finally won on the U S Tour. Having won three titles in Europe, the Swede joined the PGA Tour in 2003 and this was his 189th attempt to break his duck.

My Bets

I never got close to backing the winner at the Travelers and my final in-running play of the week, on Hunter Mahan, pretty much summed the event up for me. Hunter has an impressive bank of form at TPC River Highlands but he put in a woeful display yesterday, making just one birdie on his way to a desperately disappointing 72. The 2011 Travelers Championship is an event to forget, and quickly!

Having came close to a big win on a big-priced pick in Gary Boyd at the Italian Open two weeks ago, it was another case of close but no cigar again this week, this time with George Coetzee - backed at [290.0] before the off.

George didn't play terribly yesterday but it was a frustrating day. He missed a few lengthy putts by millimetres and a great chance to get within one of the lead on the 14th, when he missed form around six feet for birdie on what is the hardest hole on the course. Had he made that, I may well have managed to get some profit out of my modest wager but it wasn't to be and he eventually missed out on the play-off by just two shots.

Player to watch

Ross Fisher came into the event in only fair form and he started very slowly, failing to break 70 in either of his first two rounds, but he still managed to climb up into the top-ten. He finished runner-up last year, obviously enjoys the venue, and he'll be on the shortlist next year for sure.

Player to swerve

At the risk of repeating myself and for the benefit of those that didn't see any of yesterday's final round, my player to swerve this week has to be Sergio Garcia...again.

The market loves Sergio but caution is advised in no uncertain terms. After a steady start, he went on a stunning run from the 6th hole -shooting three birdies and two eagles in a six hole stretch. He'd seemingly taken control of the tournament and was matched at just [1.25] but it all went pear-shaped after that.

He's quite rightly drawing positives from his up-and-down for par on 17 and birdie up the last to get into the play-off but us punters need to remember the four bogeys he made in the five holes before then. In short, he blew it... again. It's great to see El Nino returning to form but on this evidence, he's still going to find it hard to cross the line.

What have we learnt for next year?

I'd written in my preview for the BMW International that Golfclub München Eichenried was a generous venue where scoring is always low but with no particular stats standing out, sighting Driving Accuracy as arguable just about the most important. Given that only Martin Wiegele hit more fairways from the tee than Larrazabal this week, that argument has been borne out.

As Sergio showed with his spectacular little run yesterday, birdies and eagles are out there in abundance but you need to be attacking the greens from the fairway. All four par-5's are reachable in two, but not from the rough. Having watched Coetzee closely this week, it was his inaccuracy from the tee that cost him. Ranked 55th for that stat he repeatedly failed to find the fairway on the par-5's and every time he did fail, he made par at best. Whenever he found the short grass with the big stick he made birdie at least.

There's another two great events to enjoy this week, with Bubba Watson making an appearance on the European Tour at the Open de France and there's a strong field lining-up across the pond at the AT & T National. I'll be back tomorrow, or on Wednesday morning, with a preview of both events.

Steve hasn't given up hope of a monster win in Germany, as he continues to hunt out the winner in the Connecticut......

Our man looks to the young guns in Germany and the veterans in Connecticut at this week's two events......

Awesome Rory delivers in style but where was the American challenge again?...

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Premier League Summer Transfers: When the Board men pick the players

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Fabio Cannavaro is a World Cup winning captain and a class act but can his 37 year-old legs still handle the pace of the Premier League?

"The story from Italy has leaked this morning that Italy’s World Cup winning captain Fabio Cannavaro could be recruited at Loftus Road. The stylish centre back, the most capped player in Italy’s history, is available on a free after turning down a lucrative coaching role at Qatar club Al Ahli, where he’s been since leaving Juventus."

Gone are the days when it was solely the Manager who decided which players his club should sign. Ralph Ellis looks at which Premier League Chairmen and Board Members like to meddle when it comes to raiding the transfer market.

We all think we know about football. We've all got an opinion. And that's fine when it's you and me discussing what to have a bet on, or what went wrong with England's Under 21s. It doesn't really do that much harm either when it's random punters ringing in to the local radio station to air their daft views, however much that might add to the pressure on the guy who's running the team.

When it really causes problems is when football club directors start thinking they can spot a player. All the more so, when they reckon they know more than their manager. Then you've got a recipe for disaster.

The trend in football for chairmen and chief executives to get involved in transfers began when they took responsibility from managers for the task of negotiating fees and contracts. What happened next, in many clubs, was that they tried to take over choosing the players to buy as well. Agents saw the signs, and cosied up to the blokes who signed the cheques.

It's ended up with the ridiculous situation that Birmingham's acting chairman put out a statement over the weekend insisting he didn't meddle in the transfer decisions of former boss Alex McLeish; and he justified the claim by giving a list of players he'd wanted to sign that McLeish wouldn't have. It struck me it actually proved the board did interfere - otherwise why were they spending time finding players in the first place?

There's a similar row brewing, you sense, at Queen's Park Rangers. The story from Italy has leaked this morning that Italy's World Cup winning captain Fabio Cannavaro could be recruited at Loftus Road. The stylish centre back, the most capped player in Italy's history, is available on a free after turning down a lucrative coaching role at Qatar club Al Ahli, where he's been since leaving Juventus.

Now I know that Hoops boss Neil Warnock seemed to have changed his lifetime of pragmatic football philosophy last season by finding a role for maverick Moroccan Adel Taarabt. But I somehow can't see that his idea of how to shore up a defence ready for the Premier League is to sign a 37-year-old, whose legs have gone. The man behind the move is clearly co-owner Flavio Briatore, whose passion to interfere in the running of the team caused so many problems for the ten managers and 47 players who came and went in four years of his control previously.

Ominously, in the last few weeks QPR have also been linked with 37-year-old Marco Matterazzi (who has been freed by Inter Milan) as well as Nicola Legrottaglie, who is 34 and just been let go by AC Milan.

Warnock has hitherto been adept at handling the politics of the QPR boardroom, but the higher profile of a place in the Premier League will re-open the whole can of worms. Briatore is now back in charge of football operations, backed by Bernie Ecclestone's money, since Amit Bhatia and Ishan Saksena, the men behind the recruitment of Warnock, stood aside.

QPR are [1.96] to be the top promoted team in a new Betfair market, and I'm tempted to lay that. Warnock has been telling his local papers how he's "hoping the board will clarify that I can sign" players he's been looking at. It's fair to assume that none of them are ageing Italian World Cup legends.

The toughest task for any newly promoted manager is strengthening his squad. Players are reluctant to sign up to a club that promises them little more than a struggle against relegation, and want to wait to see if they can do better.

Swansea, not surprisingly, are the [4.8] outsiders to be best of the new boys. The play-off winners always start at a disadvantage with less time to prepare, and that was reduced even more as Brendan Rodgers took himself off to climb Mount Kilimanjaro for charity and then took a holiday after Wembley was over.

Of the three that went up it seems Norwich, priced at [3.3], have best got the ball rolling so far, with James Vaughan from Everton, Welsh international striker Steve Morison from Millwall, and Brighton's promising Elliott Bennett all putting pen to paper for Paul Lambert. I'm betting that Delia Smith never said a word about any of them. Well possibly except "Let's be 'avin you". But only after Lambert told her who he wanted.

Manchester United's decision to spend in excess of £15 million on both Phil Jones and Ashley Young was a rather significant show of faith, given that the Red Devils have only spent such sums on four English players in the...

Chelsea could improve offer for midfielder this week while United monitor Bale and Milner contemplates Villa return. Meanwhile, if you've heard a rumour let us know at the bottom of the article....

Thiago Alcantara, the man of the match as Spain overcame Switzerland in the European Under-21 Championship Final, has allegedly attracted the interest of Manchester United....

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Timeform US Tips: Monday June 27

US 1-2-3 / Timeform / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Two lays and a win bet for Monday from Timeform's US team...

Finger Lakes race 1 (18:10 BST) #2 UNSUNG SONG win lay at [3.5] or shorter

Suffolk Downs race 4 (19:08 BST) #4 TERRINIQUA win lay at [3.75] or shorter

Finger Lakes race 8 (21:19 BST) #5 DOUGIE win back at [2.0] or longer

Get a free form guide for racing in the US & Canada at http://bit.ly/dP3Uvj.

Two to back and one to lay tonight from Timeform's US tipping service......

Timeform's US team have come up with two plays and a lay for Friday's US racing......

One to back and two to lay on on Thursday from Timeform's US team......

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Windsor Placepot: Monday June 27

Daily Placepots / Harry Bowles / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Monday Night = Windsor

"After two starts Royal Red's form is just as good as that of likely favourite Amis Reunis, however, and she looks the one with more scope to progress."

It's almost too hot to think, and personally I fancy watching the tennis over some humdrum Flat racing today. Never mind, Windsor gets underway this evening and, by then, a speculative double on Marion Bartoli and Sabine Lisicki will have gone west, so maybe my heart will be back in it.

18:40 - A triumvirate of Richard Hannon-trained runners complicates matters no end in the opening two-year-old maiden. After two starts Royal Red's form is just as good as that of likely favourite Amis Reunis, however, and she looks the one with more scope to progress. She's a banker to get us underway.

19:10 - Dear Maurice looks best off at the weights and will win if turning up in form, with a sound record fresh adding confidence. That said, he's dipping into selling company for the first time, perhaps pointing to a problem of some kind, so it would be dangerous to take him alone, and Anjomarba rates as sound insurance. She built on a creditable run here last month to win at Folkestone last time, and is fully entitled to go well again.

19:40 - News has just come in that Aristeia is a non-runner in the following maiden, and she had been banker material. Annoying to say the least. Passing Stranger is a most interesting newcomer and appears to be odds-on on Betfair. We need to be dealing with form, however, and Midnight Feast and Rafaaf have enough of it to imagine one, if not both, will hit the three.

20:10 - Always try and side with three-year-olds against their elders in races such as the fourth leg. Aldwick Bay makes that bit more appeal than Canaveral, enough for him to be a stand-alone choice, as things stand anyway. If putting your placepot on closer to time, just check there haven't been any non-runners, as a seven-runner field will mean just two places and, in that case, it may prove prudent to stick Brian Meehan's runner in there as well.

20:40 - A very tricky fillies' handicap makes for the fifth leg, and I'm taking three to be on the safe side. I backed Undulant Way at Bath last time and got the impression she didn't handle the track. Keep the faith. It's a similar case with Miss Topsy Turvy. She left her chance in the stalls when a warm favourite at Nottingham last time, rearing and losing all hope. Her previous success at Salisbury suggests she can take a progressive path for a while to come. Alongside that pair, Diverting is also worthy of consideration after returning from a break at Lingfield last month with a run which suggests she's yet to show all of which she's capable.

21:10 - The lightly-raced Foxley is liable to prove popular in the finale, but he hasn't looked in any way progressive in three starts to date, and I'd much rather take the in-form Prince of Sorrento. He slashed up over course and distance three weeks ago and didn't get the run of things when bidding to follow-up seven days later.

Selections: 12 lines

18:40: 7
19:10: 3,4
19:40: 3,4
20:10: 4
20:40: 8, 10, 12
21:10: 1

While the Irish Derby at the Curragh provides the Sunday highlight, Uttoxeter's Summer National meeting gets the nod for the day's Timeform 'pot....

Plenty of cards to choose from on a busy Saturday, but Newcastle gets the nod as there's likely to be a good dividend.......

Plenty of races and plenty of runners today and though Folkestone is just about the least glamorous venue for the placepot, it looks just about the most gettable and it won't take many lines, either......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: You Bute-y?!

Timeform Radio Tip / Terry Norman / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Kyle do it in style?

"The opportunity has arisen for Kyle of Bute to take advantage of his tasty handicap mark."

There's not a huge amount of racing to get stuck into today, but Terry Norman has found a runner of interest at Wolverhampton...

Only two meetings today and plenty of tough handicaps but there is a horse which has been catching the eye without hitting the net.

Kyle Of Bute (17:30 Wolverhampton) hasn't won for a year, has yet to score in ten starts on the polytrack and needs things to drop just right. Yet, the opportunity has arisen to take advantage of his tasty handicap mark.

Brian Baugh, his handler, is very astute and has skilfully got his rating down to below 60 by running him over too far on his last two outings on grass. It prompted Baugh to go for a touch on his latest start.

Having travelled well, Kyle of Bute failed to get past Goal (subject of a major gamble) and went down by less than a length. Losses may be only lent, though, as the handicapper has left the selection on 59.

Pie Poudre (blinkers rather than visor) will attract money and Dannios is looking to build on a victory at Yarmouth, his first run in 16 months, but expect Baugh to have his betting boots strapped on again

Recommended Bet
Back Kyle Of Bute @ [5.4] in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton

David Clearly has come up with a pair of selections that stand out on a terrific Sunday afternoon......

Terry Norman provides a pair of promising Saturday afternoon selections......

There's nothing too tempting for David Johnson on the Flat today so it's off to Wales for the Timeform Radio tips...

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Tim Vickery's Copa America: Argentina and Brazil renew rivalry

Copa America Team Profiles / Tim Vickery / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Are Brazil heading for a third consecutive Copa America?

"Sergio Batista’s imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona some times look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Banega links up with Messi much as Xavi does at club level."

They're the stars of South American football, fierce rivals and the top two in Betfair's Copa America market. But will Argentina and Brazil be the teams to beat once again? Tim Vickery reports.

The last two versions of the Copa America have concluded with the dream final, with Brazil ([3.35] to win this time) overcoming Argentina ([2.02]) both times, sneaking a last gasp equaliser to win on penalties in Peru in 2004, and counter-attacking their way to comfortable victory in Venezuela three years later.

If everything goes to form, and the Betfair markets are proved right, they should meet up once more to decide the destiny of the title on July 24 - and this time, of course, Argentina are favourites and will have home advantage.

They also have plenty of other things going for them. Coach Sergio Batista's imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona have moments when they look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Ever Banega links up with Lionel Messi much as Xavi does at club level. Doubts exist as to whether flank strikers Ezequiel Lavezzi and Angel Di Maria are sufficiently incisive in the penalty area, but with Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez, plus Higuain as a target man, there are plenty of attacking options.

The problems come at the other end. Argentina are unlikely to be able to sustain Barcelona-style pressing for the full 90 minutes, and as the game gets dragged back into their half, defensive problems can appear. The current crop of centre backs do not inspire great confidence, the goalkeepers even less so.

Such deficiencies are unlikely to be exposed in the first phase - Argentina have been given the easiest of the three groups - but in the knock out games, with the tension rising, that creaking defence will surely be put to the test - Brazil will certainly give it a thorough examination should they meet in the final or before.

They have a different challenge. Their defensive line looks solid - how Argentina would love a centre back with the speed, quality and quiet authority of Thiago Silva! Since Mano Menezes took over after last year's World Cup, the team have conceded just two goals in eight matches - one of them Messi's last minute winner when they met Argentina in Doha back in November.

Their problem that day - as it has been in the first year of the Menezes reign - has been to find the right attacking blend. The match against Argentina illustrated once more that the current side can struggle in the absence of a genuine centre forward, a penalty area specialist who can act as reference point and provide a platform for the likes of Neymar cutting in from behind. Leading striker Alexandre Pato scored in the first three matches after the World Cup, but is more of a mobile striker than a traditional number nine - and with the surprising omission of Leandro Damiao, the injury prone Fred is the only option of this type available.

Menezes' big hope is that time on the training ground will help his team to click, and that Santos' Paulo Henrique Ganso's recovery from injury gives him a playmaker capable of organising the attack.

His big fear, meanwhile, is that a lack of self-control might lead to red cards - as happened in the fateful World Cup quarter-final, and also in friendlies this year against France and Holland.

But if Brazil [3.3] can retain their emotional balance, then a better balance between attack and defence should make them strong candidates for a third consecutive Copa triumph, and better value than the hosts Argentina [2.02] even if they do meet in the final.

Recommended bet:

Back Brazil to win the Copa America @ [3.4]

Ecuador have failed to claim so much as a point in three of their last four Copa America appearances, but have enough talent to avoid firing another blank....

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Man Utd Transfers: The verdict on their biggest English buys

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rio Ferdinand has set a high standard for new arrival Phil Jones to match

"There is something incongruous about Carrick’s duel role as a fairly frequent starter for the reigning Premier League champions yet struggle to even make the England squad, where the likes of Scott Parker and Gareth Barry are favoured."

Manchester United's decision to spend in excess of £15 million on both Phil Jones and Ashley Young was a rather significant show of faith, given that the Red Devils have only spent such sums on four English players in the past. How did those guys fare? Michael Lintorn investigates...

Rio Ferdinand
The Red Devils paid around £30 million to sign Ferdinand from Leeds in 2002 after he excelled for England at the 2002 World Cup. While there have been a few rough patches in the nine years since, such as his eight-month ban in 2004 for a missed drug test and his hefty demands when negotiating a new contract a year later, his contribution to their performance in that period, which has included five Premier League titles, cannot be underestimated.
Success of signing: 9/10

Wayne Rooney
Rooney was also purchased after a star showing in an international tournament, netting four times in four games at Euro 2004 to earn a move to Old Trafford for a fee in the region of £27 million. Early on, he played second fiddle to first Ruud van Nistelrooy and then Cristiano Ronaldo, but delivered when anointed the main man in 2009-10. That was the sole campaign in seven though in which he scored 20 in the Premier League and averaged more than a goal every two matches.
Success of signing: 6/10

Michael Carrick
There is something incongruous about Carrick's duel role as a fairly frequent starter for the reigning Premier League champions yet struggle to even make the England squad, as the likes of Scott Parker and Gareth Barry are favoured. However, while his impact if often underappreciated, a record of four titles in five seasons under Sir Alex Ferguson's guidance can't be knocked, and has more than covered the £18.6 million shelled out to take him from Tottenham.
Success of signing: 7/10

Owen Hargreaves
Of the quartet, Hargreaves is the one most will judge the biggest flop, despite being the cheapest at £17 million, having made just 18 top-flight starts in four years prior to his release this summer, but he was integral in his debut campaign. He fired the fantastic free-kick that saw off Arsenal in perhaps the decisive match in arguably the toughest of their 12 Premier League triumphs and shone in their only Champions League win this century, to ensure that he will be remembered fondly by fans.
Success of signing: 5/10

Will Jones and Young achieve as much as Ferdinand and Carrick? Manchester United are [3.0] to finish first in 2011-12.

Gone are the days when it was solely the Manager who decided which players his club should sign. Ralph Ellis looks at which Premier League Chairmen and Board Members like to meddle when it comes to raiding the transfer market....

Chelsea could improve offer for midfielder this week while United monitor Bale and Milner contemplates Villa return. Meanwhile, if you've heard a rumour let us know at the bottom of the article....

Thiago Alcantara, the man of the match as Spain overcame Switzerland in the European Under-21 Championship Final, has allegedly attracted the interest of Manchester United....

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Michael Vaughan ODI Preview: Sri Lanka are the better team

ODI preview / Michael Vaughan / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Pietersen loves batting at The Oval

"Whoever wins the toss will surely bat first so a safe bet may be to back the side who gets first digs on a good track. But if that’s Sri Lanka you will have lost the value so it may be just worth taking a bit of a gamble and backing Sri Lanka pre-match at a very attractive 2.4."

Michael Vaughan hasn't forgotten what happened the last time these two met in an ODI and is confident this England side in transition will once again struggle against Lasith Malinga and co.

I saw no reason why England went into the T20 match on Saturday as favourites and I'll say the same about this match.

The last time these two met was admittedly in Sri Lankan conditions but a ten-wicket defeat in any circumstances represents a huge gulf in quality. England were ok at the last World Cup with inspired performances against both South Africa and India in particular but the brand of cricket they played simply wasn't in the same league as that of Tuesday's opponents or eventual winners India.

The surprise for me is that there doesn't seem to be a definite plan to change the way the team plays. It's almost as if they've decided that there was nothing wrong with the approach at the last World Cup and that, if they carry on doing the same thing again, they'll somehow come good eventually.

The two big areas I think England need to address are in the way they approach their batting. The batsmen have to take more risks in terms of trying to clear the ropes and take more responsibility when it comes to converting good starts into hundreds. Scoring 50 off 70 balls and getting out can be a decent contribution on a low-scoring pitch but, on a wicket where you need to post or chase 300, you need your batsman to turn those good platforms into big scores. We saw Andrew Strauss do it a couple of times over the last year or so before retiring from limited-overs cricket and KP certainly did it when he first broke into the side. But there hasn't been enough of it recently. The best players like Sachin Tendulkar, Jacques Kallis and Kumar Sangakkara don't think a half-century is a job done; they appreciate the need to kick on and make the most of the fact they've played themselves in and always target three figures when they get past 50.

The toss wil be important here because if it's a sunny day at the Oval you can post some pretty big scores. Whoever wins the toss will surely bat first so a safe bet may be to back the side who gets first digs on a good track. But if that's Sri Lanka you will have lost the value so it may be just worth taking a bit of a gamble and backing Sri Lanka pre-match at a very attractive [2.4].

Kevin Pietersen loves The Oval - now his home ground of course - and showed both during the Thirst Test and the T20 the other day that he's in good nick so he's my choice for Top England batsman at around [5.3].

I've had huge trouble picking a top Sri Lanka batsman over the past month or so and that's made even more difficult this time because we don't know if Tillekeratne Dilshan is fit to play. So let's turn to the top Sri Lankan wicket-taker market where Lasith Malinga is around [3.3]. He may not lead the respective charts or rankings for whatever reason but if there's a more feared ODI bowler in world cricket, I'd like to know about him. Especially when it comes to bowling at the death when you're not just trying to keep your stumps in one piece; you're also trying to score quickly. Because of his slingy action the ball comes at you from a very low trajectory and it's difficult to get underneath it. The best way to play him at the death is therefore to aim to hit the ball from where it came from: straight back past him, mid-off or extra cover. That's easier said than done though and I fancy "The Slinger" to be their top wicket-taker on Tuesday at [3.3].

Recommended Bets:

Back Sri Lanka to win @ [2.4]
Back Kevin Pietersen to be top England batsman @ [5.3]
Back Lasith Malinga to be Top Sri Lankan wicket-taker @ [3.3]

Michael Vaughan on why Ian Bell belongs at the top of the order and how Samit Patel needs to start giving something back....

Ed Hawkins previews the first of five one-day internationals between the teams, starting with the contest at The Oval on Tuesday...

A lot has happened in the world of international cricket since Ricky Ponting lifted the Cricket World Cup back in 2007 including a dramatic rise in popularity in something called T20. But this is the real thing and the one...

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Sky Dogs Tips: Ballymac looks Ace for Pall Mall double

Sky Previews / Darrell Williams / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Who will emerge as top dog on another night of Betfair-sponsored action?

"In my mind, because of his defeat the other day, Ballymac Ace now offers plenty of value at around 2.9 and he rates a solid selection"

Loughview Gem's Northern Irish Derby victory was hailed as a shock by many - but not to Darrell Williams - whose six Sky selections at Drumbo on Saturday all won. But the top tipster is expecting few surprises in the Betfair Pall Mall at Oxford where Ballymac Ace is taken to claim the prize.

Not since Fearless Ace achieved back-to-back victories in the first two Oxford runnings of the Pall Mall in 1988/9 has a greyhound successfully defended the title.

Until now that is, as Chris Allsopp's Ballymac Ace has an excellent chance of repeating his 2010 victory.

On that occasion all the pre-race chat revolved around how the sharp railer could muster a run from trap five - but he did - and how, dominating proceedings for a near five length slaughtering of his rivals.

But Tuesday evening's task - live on Sky Sports - will come from the far more familiar surroundings of trap one - a box he has been beaten only once from in five previous red jacket starts at the Cowley track.

That defeat, slightly worryingly happened to be in last week's semi-finals, where a rare missed break ensured the three year old wasn't going to be gifted the race, as he had been when making all in the first round in the fastest time of the year for the 450m trip.

But Ballymac Ace, who came into the event fresh after a recent layoff, battled on well, and although not able to catch improving youngster Pams Tomjo, comfortably qualified in second place.

While I do not envisage 'Ace' missing his start again, he will need to step carefully to avoid his kennelmate and neighbour Brittons Empire, who is awkwardly drawn for the selection in trap two. However I'm hopeful that this equally quick starter will tread a rails to middle route, rather than making a beeline for the fence at traps rise.

The aforementioned Pams Tomjo, the race's only unbeaten finalist, as well as boasting a 3/3 record over the CD, warrants respect, especially with the likelihood of Buzz Doc moving in a little from trap three, while lone wide seed Dromana Max would enter calculations if trapping as he did in the first round.

But in my mind, because of his defeat the other day, Ballymac Ace now offers plenty of value at around [2.9] and he rates a solid selection.

Win machine Union Jak Jakson can take his unbeaten sequence to ten for Kinsley based Andy Clarke in the British Bred race at 21:25 and rates the best bet on the support card. The fact he was sent to Oxford for a minor Open the other week can only be seen as a bonus and he should be backed accordingly.

Oxford have attracted five of the field that contested the Dorando Marathon at Wimbledon on Derby final night, and I expect Lottes Girl to confirm the form (20:50). Stepped up to marathon distances prior to the TV Trophy at Sittingbourne, Heather Dimmock's bitch has won 4/6 over 800m plus, confirming her Wimbledon form with runner-up Killishin Masai at Perry Barr next time - albeit with just a short-head between them on both occasions. Taylors Riviera, spared retirement after a much better run at Wimbledon, is also of interest back in her favourite trap one draw.

Head Iton Jason has a fantastic draw inside slow starting Hee Haws Montana in the 595m race at 21:10 and should complete his own six-timer, although I would have been happier if he'd had a previous look round. Monleek Merc, a brother of Razldazls George and Jayfkay, has been notching up the wins since stepping up to six bends, and is a lively alternative.

Rotar Wing can win an excellent looking sprint (20:00), where his draw inside Sleeping Urban may prove to be key. Derby semi-finalist Fifis Rocket won well enough at Hall Green and rates the logical danger.

Yahoo Jamie pays a first visit to Oxford, but has an excellent record first time up at tracks, and can claim the 20:15 for Charlie Lister,

Selections (in order of preference)
Union Jak Jakson 21:25
Ballymac Ace 21:45
Head Iton Jason 21:10
Rotar Wing 20:00
Lottes Girl 20:50
Yahoo Jamie 20:15

A fortnight after Taylors Sky's riveting Derby victory, Sky Sports cameras pay a first visit to Belfast for the Northern Irish Derby where Darrell Williams thinks Loughview Gem offers a value alternative to hot favourite Leeview Jet....

Taylors Sky can create history by winning the Greyhound Derby final at Wimbledon on Saturday night - live on Sky Sports - and provide legendary trainer Charlie Lister with a record breaking sixth Derby success says Darrell Williams....

The Sky cameras are again at Wimbledon where the remaining 12 will be whittled down to six Derby finalists - find out who The Lord will be opposing on tonight's card...

Betfair website

Market Movers: Monday June 27

Market Movers / Editor / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Pontefract and Wolverhampton

Pontefract
14.15
Amazing Blue Sky 12.5 in to 5.1
Tropical Duke 16.0 in to 10.0

14.45
Qeethaara 3.45 out to 4.8
Alioonagh 6.4 in to 3.85
Wisemans Diamond 8.2 in to 6.2
Minis Destiantion 4.2 out to 7.2

15.15
Sans Loi 2.54 in to 1.97
Princess Banu 2.76 out to 3.75

15.45
Blanche Dubawi 9.2 in to 7.0
Amitola 14.0 in to 10.5
Desert Poppy 8.8 out to 19.5
Favourite Girl 12.5 out to 50.0
Whos Shirl 44.0 in to 22.0

16.15
Bradbury 10.5 in to 6.8

16.45
York Glory 2.68 in to 2.02

17.15
Unknown Rebel 4.0 out to 5.2

Wolverhampton
14.30
Hidden Valley 2.72 in to 1.93

15.00
Piccoluck 12.7 in to 5.8

15.30
Befortyfour 1.68 in to 1.46

16.00
Repeater 4.0 in to 3.3

16.30
Grand Piano 5.5 in to 4.4

17.30
Pie Poudre 7.4 in to 6.0
Kyle Of Bute 5.0 out to 7.4
Smart Step 11.0 in to 7.8

This afternoon's market movers from the UK and Ireland......

This afternoon's market movers from the UK and Ireland......

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing Chester, Newcastle, Newmarket and the Curragh...

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Alberto Contador won't win the Tour de France

Tour De France / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Contador's off field problems give him a mountain to climb if he is to win a fourth Tour

"Andy Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador’s 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event."

The latest super Spaniard in the saddle is odds-on to beat the near 200-strong field home but that's a price you should be laying, says the Betfair Contrarian

Back when Lance Armstrong was in his pomp the Contrarian was instead busy predicting that DJ Pied Piper would be the best thing to happen to music since Spandau Ballet, and so never had the slightly intimidating pleasure of writing "Juan Pelota" off. This latest assignment feels just as daunting, however, as Alberto Contador has triumphed on the last three occasions that he has contested the Tour de France, yet the Contrarian reckons you should lay him for a fourth title at [1.71]. Here's why...

Contador has a monumental distraction...
For years, the Tour de France's appeal has been tarnished by doping suspicions and the problem won't be eradicated any time soon given that the Tour's holder is competing in the shadow of a failed drugs test in last year's edition. He was later banned because his sample was found to contain traces of clenbuterol, only to be controversially cleared by the Spanish authorities, who accepted his claim that the low concentration levels made food contamination the likely source. The Union Cycliste International were understandably furious and turned to the Court of Arbitration, though in a twist that does the sport's credibility no favours, the case was put back from June, allowing him to compete. Yet while Contador gets the opportunity to fight for a fourth win, the whispering campaign that will accompany his involvement and worries about the upcoming court showdown are sure to compromise his performance.

...and has shown signs of suffering
Contador's performance in the Volta ao Algarve and Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, two events that he won in 2010, provide further evidence that off-road troubles are affecting his cycling. This time round he finished a distant fourth in Portugal and all the way back in 24th in his homeland, where he was hampered by several punctures.

Schleck is a worthy adversary
Now that they no longer enter the Eurovision Song Contest, in which they impressively remain the joint-second most successful nation, Luxembourg need to look elsewhere for opportunities to shine on a global stage. The Tour de France is an obvious substitute, given that they have provided four winners in the highlight of the cycling calendar. The last of those was Charly Gaul in 1958 but it looks to be a matter of time before 26-year-old Andy Schleck becomes the fifth, and there is no reason why this won't prove to be his year at [3.5]. He fared better in his first appearance in the race than his main rival, ranking 12th to the Spaniard's 31st, and has built on that with two second-placed finishes, claiming the white jersey that is awarded to the best young rider on all three occasions.

The gap is narrower than ever
On Schleck's Tour de France debut in 2008, he finished over 11 minutes behind champion Carlos Sastre (Contador didn't participate in the race) despite topping the Young Riders' Classification, yet 12 months later he was within five minutes of Contador as the latter claimed his second title, before trailing by only 39 seconds as El Pistolero completed his hat-trick last July. Those figures illustrate that Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador's 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event. It is no surprise therefore that Schleck's Leopard Trek manager Brian Nygaard is confident of his star turn delivering.

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Spartacus won't be defying any odds if he records another victory today, says Tobias Gourlay....

The sprinters think it's their turn at the front now, but there might still be a baroudeur or two with other ideas, warns Tobias Gourlay....

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Michael Vaughan: England batting line-up needs a re-think

ODI preview / Michael Vaughan / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ian Bell needs to face as many balls as possible in the form he's in

"Where I think England need to have a re-think is in the batting order. Ian Bell is the most in-form batsman in the side at the moment so we can’t have a repeat of Saturday afternoon where he was watching from the sidelines. He should definitely play and he should open the innings."

Michael Vaughan on why Ian Bell belongs at the top of the order and how Samit Patel needs to start giving something back.

A new era for England's ODI team starts on Tuesday when Alastair Cook leads the side out for the first time since being appointed the full-time ODI skipper.

Stuart Broad got his own T20 captaincy off to the worst possible start with England's lacklustre display in a heavy defeat on Saturday, as predicted in this column. Both will have wished for a slightly easier opposition than this well-drilled Sri Lanka side that contains a handful of highly-talented match-winners.

The first thing Alastair Cook needs to do is make sure he gets the right balance in the side. My guess is the team will look like this: Cook, Kieswetter, Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Morgan, Patel, Bresnan, Broad, Swann, Anderson. That's a good-looking side on paper and I've got no problems with the bowlers or the all-rounders. Where I think England need to have a re-think is in the batting order. Ian Bell is the most in-form batsman in the side at the moment so we can't have a repeat of Saturday afternoon where he was watching from the sidelines. He should definitely play and he should open the innings.

The best ODI openers fall into two categories. Firstly, guys like Adam Gilchrist or Virender Sehwag who hit big from the word go and can clear the ropes. And secondly, players like Sachin Tendulkar and Mark Waugh, who are masters at finding gaps in the field through sheer timing and throughout their careers perfected the art of building an innings; a little more cautious at the start and then accelerating as they start to really get their eye in. Ian Bell is very much in the latter category of course and England need to juggle the order around somehow so that he does open the batting.

I also think Kevin Pietersen needs to bat at three. A top three that contains Cook and Jonathan Trott is perhaps a little too pedestrian for my liking. They'll get you runs because they're both fantastic players but the rate at which they get them is a bit of a concern and if they eventually get out, it puts pressure on the middle-order to have to score very quickly before they've had a chance to really get themselves in. Few players in the world can score as quickly as KP when he's on-song and England need him at the crease during those crucial first 15 overs.

Samit Patel is a super prospect and I've spoken in this column before about how he has all the talent in the world to be anything he wants in this game. His weight and general fitness has been the only thing that has so far stopped him from achieving his ambitions so it was slightly disappointing that, in his first match back in the side, he lost his wicket by virtue of being lazily run out. The selectors have been patient with Patel but he needs to put in a couple of eye-catching performances throughout the series to reward the faith they've put in him.

Michael Vaughan hasn't forgotten what happened the last time these two met in an ODI and is confident this England side in transition will once again struggle against Lasith Malinga and co....

Ed Hawkins previews the first of five one-day internationals between the teams, starting with the contest at The Oval on Tuesday...

A lot has happened in the world of international cricket since Ricky Ponting lifted the Cricket World Cup back in 2007 including a dramatic rise in popularity in something called T20. But this is the real thing and the one...

Betfair website

Timeform 1-2-3 Tips: Monday June 27

Timeform 1-2-3 / Sam Randall / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Pontefract is the scene of a couple of today's best bets.

"Mick Channon has two of the remaining three runners in the third race on this afternoon’s Pontefract card, but neither have the potential of Sans Loi. "

Selections for Pontefract and Windsor make up Monday's trio of bets...

Mick Channon has two of the remaining three runners in the third race on this afternoon's Pontefract card, but neither have the potential of Sans Loi. Alan McCabe's juvenile created a big impression when justifying strong market support in a maiden at Nottingham over this trip earlier in the month, quickening clear in good style, and he's a confident selection to bounce back after finding the Group-race intensity of the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot just too much for him last time.

The next race is a different scenario, with a bigger field of sprint handicappers, but the case is just as compelling for the Sir Michael Stoute's Entitled, who makes plenty of appeal at [3.25]. She's up against several progressive rivals, not least James Fanshawe's Mosaicist, but the manner in which Ryan Moore's mount cut through the field at York (after a slow start) to catch the thriving Collect Art suggests she's well capable of following up from today's 8 lb higher mark.

Miss Topsy Turvy was still green when staying on powerfully to score at Salisbury last month, the style of that success suggesting she was a three-year-old to keep on side, but things went awry at Nottingham last time when the John Dunlop-trained runner lost all chance with a slow start. Clearly after that there is a certain element of risk attached with supporting her at Windsor tonight, but if she breaks on terms this time she'll soon be trading a lot shorter than [5.8].

Recommendations

Back Sans Loi @ [2.02] Pontefract 15.15
Back Entitled @ [3.25] Pontefract 15.45
Back Miss Topsy Turvy @ [5.8] Windsor 20.40

Selections from each of the three meetings in Britain on Sunday from the Timeform Free Form Website....

With loads of racing for you to get your teeth into today, Timeform's Adam Brookes believes he's found three at tasty prices......

Three bets for Friday from Timeform's Free Form Site......

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Two More Brits Make WSOP Final Tables

World Series of Poker 2011 / Matthew Pitt / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

The 2010 World Series of Poker was labelled the Year of the Brit after our boys and girls played out of their skins and ensured British players had their best WSOP on record. That year Brits won five bracelets, 23 final tables, 275 cashes and winnings of $8,679,918 but with 19 events and the Main Event still left to play at this year's series British players look set to smash that record.

At time of writing up to Event #38 has been completed and Brits are still running hot and playing even better. So far Jake Cody, Matthew Perrins and Darren Woods have won a bracelet and there have been a total of 18 final table appearances and a massive 136 cashes, for winnings of around $5,100,000! An amazing achievement and long may it continue.

Last night two more Brits came close to bringing home the bacon but fell just short after terrific runs. The first was Tom Middleton, a young online pro from Leeds who is currently ranked 62nd in the world for online poker tournaments. Online he has won more than $2,700,000. Before reaching the final table of Event #35, the $2,500 No Limit Hold'em event, Middleton's best cash was for £22,150, which he was awarded for winning the 2008 Gala Casinos Poker Tour final in Bristol. Now he has smashed that amount by winning $305,015 after finishing third this event.

He played superbly throughout the tournament and was unlucky to lose a vital coinflip to eliminate him, if he had won this particular hand there is no doubt he would have been brining home a bracelet. In the hand in question he got into a raising war preflop with eventual winner Mikhail Lakhitov that resulted in Middleton being all-in and at risk of elimination. His ThTd were in front of the AsKd of his Russian opponent but fell way behind as the flop came down 5d-Ks-9s. The Js gave Middleton extra outs to a gustshot straight but the 5s was not one of them and the Brit was sent to the rail where he was met by an army of drunken, boisterous supporters.

The second British player to make a WSOP final table last night was Paul Nash, better known as brummieboy when he is plying his trade as an online poker professional. Nash's biggest score of his career came in 2009 when he finished second in the PokerStars Sunday Million, a result that netted him $165,555. Despite winning close to $880,000 from online tournaments, Nash had not been able to reproduce the same form in the live arena, though he did have four cashes in UKIPT events prior to this result, his best being a sixth place finish in Manchester that scooped him £12,600.

Nash entered Event #38, the $1,500 No Limit Hold'em tournament, along with 2,191 others and after three long days and nights of poker found himself on the final table of nine, albeit seventh in chips. Unfortunately for Nash, and his legion of railbirds, he could not gain the momentum he needed to bring home a bracelet and was eliminated in fifth place. The final hand saw the flop come down 7s-3s-8h and with 250,000 already in the pot Nash bet 160,000. Arkadiy Tsinis raised to 365,000 and after a brief pause Nash moved all in for 970,000. Getting close to three-to-one pot odds Tsinis shrugged his shoulders and made the call, turning over Ac8d. Tsinis' pair of eights were the best hand as Nash revealed AdJs and in desperate need of help. The Qs on the turn gave him extra outs to the spade flush but they failed to materialise as the river was the Ah, sending the popular Brit to the rail disappointed to not win a bracelet but with $123,028 to console himself with.

By the time the weekend is done and dusted we could have a few more Brits on final tables and winning bracelets. The $5,000 No Limit Hold'em Six-handed event is down to the last 20 and both Jude Ainsworth (From the Republic of Ireland but we'll steal him) and Martins Adeniya are both still in with a shot at glory. Good luck ladies and gents!

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While luck certainly plays a role in deciding which players make it to the final tables of World Series of Poker events, more often than not those who have outlasted the field to put themselves in position to claim the...

Thursday's World Series of Poker hand of the day comes from Event #36, the $2,500 No-Limit Hold'em event that played down to a final table before stoppping with five players remaining. Thomas Middleton, supported with great fervor by many of...

The WSOP Main Event begins on July 7 in Las Vegas and like every year Betfair Poker qualifiers will be out in force all hoping to bring back the coveted bracelet...and a few million dollars....

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Tim Vickery: Copa America 2011 could be a classic

Copa America / Tim Vickery / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Brazil and Argentina will be key contenders in 2011

"History indicates that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief."

The Copa America, which gets underway on July 1, is one of the world's greatest football tournaments and, with more teams than ever capable of winning, Betfair's new columnist Tim Vickery believes this one could be a cracker.

Football's oldest continental tournament, the Copa America has had an uneven history, at times held annually, at others falling into neglect.

One of the major points of interest at this year's tournament is that the Copa has found a perfect slot. Now staged every four years, the competition kicks off a new cycle of competitive action. After a year of friendlies, blooding new coaches and boosting the bank balance, the Copa is swiftly followed by the next set of South America's marathon World Cup qualifiers. This means that the teams will look to emerge from Argentina with a line up ready to battle for a place in Brazil in 2014.

All over the continent, coaches have been stressing that the Copa is primarily a warm up tournament. But, injuries aside, the 10 South American teams are at full strength - unlike the two teams invited from CONCACAF, Mexico and Costa Rica, who are bringing young, experimental squads - and once the action kicks off and the adrenalin kicks in then thoughts of using the Copa for mere preparation purposes will be put aside. More sides than ever before will be dreaming of lifting the trophy aloft on July 24.

This is the other aspect that makes the 2011 Copa so fascinating - the current strength in depth of South American international football. History shows that we can certainly think of a traditional big three in the Copa - between them Argentina [2.02], Brazil [3.35] and Uruguay [12.5] have won 36 of the 42 versions of the tournament - and it is worth noting that as far as the Copa is concerned, Uruguay have never been anything but a giant. Winners in 1995, finalists in 1999, the sky blues have reached the semis in each of the last three tournaments. Given their current strength, one conclusion here is that Uruguay [13.0] are worth backing.

Outside the big three, Peru [260.00], Paraguay [38.0], Bolivia [390.00] and Colombia [32.0] share the other six titles - either on home ground or in the period when the Copa had no fixed host (the sole exception is Paraguay's 1953 win in Peru, but officially it was the Paraguayan FA who organised the competition).

A look at the past, then, would seem to indicate that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief. All look strong; hosts Argentina are under pressure to end a run of 18 years without a senior title. Brazil want to take advantage of their most serious competitive test before staging the next World Cup. Uruguay were semi-finalists in South Africa last year and have a settled side spearheaded by a phalanx of dangerous strikers.

But it would be unwise to overlook the lessons of the World Cup. Uruguay, for example, only qualified through the play-offs after finishing fifth in qualification. The evidence would seem clear; the introduction in 1996 of the marathon format of World Cup qualifiers has led to a dramatic improvement in the level of the less traditional teams. For the first time they have enjoyed the type of calendar that European teams take for granted - regular competitive games with guaranteed income, allowing them to hire top quality coaches and build a side.

The most dramatic example of this progress is Ecuador, three decades ago a South American version of Luxembourg, but part of the best 16 in the world in 2006. Venezuela's rise is no less spectacular - in the last round of the 2010 qualifiers they even managed a draw away to Brazil - who they beat comfortably in a 2008 friendly.

Chile thrilled the neutrals in the World Cup, and have a group of players who are both battle hardened and still with their best years ahead of them. The ever resilient Paraguay gave world champions Spain their toughest test in South Africa.

And countries who sat out South Africa are anxious to get back on track. Colombian football has such potential, which will come closer to being fulfilled if they can get the best out of a promising group of strikers. Peru have been in the doldrums for a while, but the signs are that in Sergio Markarian they have a top class coach capable of making them much more competitive.

So there could be some surprises along the way. Over the next few weeks the limbs will freeze through the fierce Argentine Winter. But with the strength in depth on display in the Copa, the blood will be aflame.

Despite winning four of the last five Copa America tournaments, Brazil are second favourites to be victorious in Argentina, primarily due to doubts over coach Mano Menezes....

It has been decades since Paraguay last seriously threatened in the Copa America, however last year's World Cup quarter-finals run offers hope of a sustained challenge....

1997 finalists Bolivia have achieved almost nothing in the Copa America since, but the appointment of promising coach Gustavo Quinteros gives them hope of a win at least....

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Timeform Daily: The Irish Derby, Sunday 15:50, the Curragh

Race of the Day / Timeform / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Carlton House gain compensation for his Epsom defeat?

"Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings."

Epsom Derby second and third Treasure Beach and Carlton House are set to renew rivalry at the Curragh on Sunday, but who will come out on top?...

Carlton House is an exciting prospect who was too strong for Seville in the Dante before finishing third in Epsom Derby, showing potent turn of foot 3f out but unable to sustain that effort. Compensation awaits.

Dunboyne Express won twice at 2 yrs, including runaway victory in Group 3 here only try on ground softer than good. Overall level of form some way off required standard though, and this trip is an unknown.

Memphis Tennessee won AW maiden in 2010 and built on that good impression in no uncertain terms this year, fourth in Derby last time under well-judged ride. Hard to see him reversing placings with Carlton House.

Native Khan landed Craven Stakes before creditable efforts in 2000 Guineas (third to Frankel) and Derby (fifth to Pour Moi). Will probably continue to come up short at highest level but could get placed.

Notable Graduate landed odds in maiden at Tipperary and minor event at Gowran in April/May. Unsuited by test of speed when only second last time and could go well at a price. Attitude looks a major asset.

Roderic O'Connor usually goes from the front and bounced back to his 2-y-o form when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas under an astute ride, but didn't see out 10.5f in France last time and now races over even further.

Seville was fast-tracked to top table when runner-up in Racing Post Trophy last backend. Behind Carlton House in Dante and then ran no sort of race at Epsom, but could bounce back on more galloping track.

Treasure Beach took Chester Vase on return (beat Nathaniel) and then fared best of this field in the Epsom Derby, beaten only by a head. Enjoyed a tactical advantage over the third that day, however.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Carlton House
2. Seville
3. Notable Graduate

Timeform's View: Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings. Aidan O'Brien's best chance could be Seville, who clearly wasn't himself at Epsom but chased home Carlton House earlier in the campaign, while at bigger odds Notable Graduate should give a good account if it becomes a slog.

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