German Football 
/ Matthew Walton / 25 January 2012 / 1 Comments 
Robert Lewandowki's goals can keep Dortmund in the title race
"If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown."
Bayern Munich are involved in a four-way tussle for the Bundesliga title but are still the overwhelming favourites at 1.66. What does recent history tell us about that price, asks Matthew Walton.
For backers of Bayern Munich at prices as low as [1.14]... these are worrying times.
In the midst of 'Oscar season' all isn't going quite so well for FC Hollywood.
And for Jupp Heynckes's star-studded team, who have previously swept the board with 22 domestic championships, the route to No.23 is proving no stroll up the red carpet.
Bayern's return to the Bundesliga after Germany's mid-season break was welcomed with a 3-1 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach and that result, along with some worrying pre-Christmas form has made the title race exactly that... a race!
Bayern P18 (W12 D1 L5) are now joint leaders of three on 37 points along with Borussia Dortmund (W11 D4 L3) and Schalke 04 (W12 D1 L5). The resurgent Mönchengladbach (W11 D3 L4) are just a point back with the next team, Werder Bremen, a further six points adrift.
But, many will say, Bayern always come on strong in the second half of the season. They have the money, the players, the experience... more than enough to get the job done.
Well, to a point.
There are five good reasons to question the claims of Die Bayern at their current market price of [1.66].
(i) Germany's most trophied club have only won the Bundesliga title twice in the last five years (2009/10 and 2007/08).
Last season Borussia Dortmund won the league. Jurgen Klopp's side finishing 7 points clear of second-placed Bayer Leverkusen with Bayern, a full 10 points back, just making the tri-cast.
In 2008/09 it was Wolfsburg who beat the Bavarians to the title and back in 2006/07 VFB Stuttgart claimed the title with Bayern, again a full 10 points behind the eventual champions, only coming fourth and ending up in the UEFA Cup/Europa League!
(ii) Bayern's current form isn't the best... W5 D0 L3 of their last eight matches has seen their early season lead disappear, allowing others (like Dortmund W6 D1 L1) to make up ground. Munich need to find their form... and fast!
(iii) 18 games played so far in the Bundesliga. Bayern have played nine at home and nine away, whilst Dortmund have played 10 away but just eight games at home. Slight advantage there to the main challengers. Bayern must also travel to the Westfalenstadion later in the campaign (having already lost at home to Dortmund earlier in the season).
(iv) Champions League activity could also be a distraction as the title race hots up in March/April. Bayern would expect to get past Basle in the R16... which will mean at least four more matches to squeeze into their end of season schedule (even if they go out in the QFs).
(v) and let's not forget, aside of all the above points (added to fatigue, injuries, suspensions etc) that Bayern have still only won the Bundesliga in five of the last 10 years. Odds-on quotes before the season starts (let alone midway) still represent questionable value.
Should we be happy, therefore, to lump on the favourites at a pretty short price?
Dortmund have seven previous national titles to their name, most recently winning the Bundesliga in 2010/11.
They're a very big threat indeed. More so as they possess a very in-form goalscorer...young Polish striker, Robert Lewandowski. With 14 goals in 18 matches he's a highly-rated performer, even by Bayern.
Schalke 04 certainly aren't serial winners (last victorious way back in 1958) but Huub Stevens has a side who have been runners-up three times in the last six seasons. They're not easily discounted as a result.
It's only Borussia Mönchengladbach who lack any recent pedigree (their 1976/77 league win was their last of three consecutive titles in the mid-70's).
But they, along with the other two, make for a chasing pack that has both strength and depth.
If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown. And that's the matter which is in hand... are they value?
The logical play, given the points raised, is to take a 'value' position on their nearest (and biggest) threat, Dortmund, even considering a back-to-lay strategy.
Key Statistic
Bayern only have the sixth best record in the Bundesliga against their nearest rivals (i.e. sides in the top half of the table). Dortmund, Shalke and Mönchengladbach all have better results against the better teams.
Recommended Bets
Back Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga at [3.45]
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