Carling Cup 
/ Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Kenny Miller has struck ten times since his summer move to Cardiff
"Saturday’s 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees Cardiff enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine."
A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver...
Cardiff v Crystal Palace, Tuesday 19:45 BST, BBC2, Match odds: Cardiff [1.77], Crystal Palace [5.5], The Draw [3.8]
There aren't many instances in which fickleness can be viewed as an asset but the ability to switch loyalties as frequently, decisively and effectively as Craig Bellamy moves teams is a positive when it comes to betting on Carling Cup semi-finals.
That's why, a mere fortnight after successfully backing Crystal Palace to triumph 1-0 in the first leg of their jostle with Cardiff for a Wembley place, this writer is changing sides and planning a celebratory Ayatollah in expectation of them overhauling the deficit.
One of the reasons for favouring Palace in the initial tie was the frequency of home victories in Carling Cup semi-finals, and they are even more common in second legs. The last six have all been won by the hosts, with five of those - including each of the last four - progressing to the final.
Further cause for backing the Bluebirds both to win at [1.79] and qualify at [2.1] is provided by the way that both have performed since the clash at Selhurst Park, with Cardiff taking four points from two Championship fixtures while Palace gained only one.
It is arguable no doubt that the difference owes much to the Londoners' position in the middle of the table enabling them to focus on the cup, going through the motions in the meantime, whereas their Welsh opponents are battling to sustain a promotion challenge.
However, those results have helped Malky Mackay's men rebuild the momentum that was dwindling slightly ahead of their first-leg loss. Saturday's 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees them enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine.
It isn't just the home win rate that is high in Carling Cup semi-final second legs, as each of the last six have produced three goals or more [[2.26]], with half of those producing over 3.5 goals too, a massive [4.5] prospect on this occasion.
Cardiff have scored eight in their last three outings at their Cardiff City Stadium, conceding six in the process. With Dougie Freedman's visitors sure to fancy their chances of an away goal having fired in five of their last seven on the road, both teams to score shouldn't be discounted either at [2.12].
The Bluebirds' last two matches in front of their fans saw them net three times to prevail despite leaking at the other end and it is [17.0] for that trend to be maintained by virtue of a 3-1 success.
Best Bet: Cardiff to qualify @ [2.1]
Other Recommended Bet: Cardiff to win 3-1 @ [17.0]
Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final....
Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield......
There are rumours that Liverpool are about to purchase one of the most hyped stars in the Football League, in the process weakening a side who they might face at Wembley......
No comments:
Post a Comment