The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Ben Crane - Can he cheer up The Punter?
“It’s been a typically frustrating event to bet on with TV coverage revolving around an out of contention Phil Mickelson, an uncompetitive Greg Norman and an ex-president in Bill Clinton.”
Els and Colsaerts just fall short for Steve but it's time to move on. What's the plan for tonight's final round at the Humana Challenge?
18.15 - January 22, 2012
Having seethed for a good hour or more, following the conclusion of the Volvo Golf Champions, it's time to move on. Much to my surprise and disappointment, Branden Grace has gone back-to-back and followed up last week's success in Joburg, beating Retief Goosen and Ernie Els in a play-off.
At one point, both my in-running plays, Ernie Els and Nicolas Colsaerts, looked to have the event between them but it wasn't to be. Ernie Els hit the front when he eagled the 13th but he failed to pick up another shot until the last. Several birdie efforts grazed the hole but agonisingly, none dropped.
Colsaerts, not for the first time this week, suffered with his nerves and every time he looked in pole position his play off the tee was abysmal. He eventually missed a short par putt on the last hole to miss out on the playoff. It felt inevitable and it wasn't a shock.
Mercifully, Els traded heavy odds on and I was able to lock in some profit. He was matched at as low as [1.5] and I layed him at [1.94] but a win for him or Colsaerts would have been so much better.
High winds caused havoc at the Humana Challenge yesterday and the players have had to come back and finish off round three today. Mark Wilson has moved into a three shot lead, over Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, who birdied his last six holes of round three, my man Ben Crane and one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner picks, Robert Garrigus.
Garrigus has already had a remarkable tournament. Playing with a long putter for the first time, he was six over par through just eight holes but something must have clicked, he's played the next 46 holes in 24 under par!
It's been a typically frustrating event to bet on with TV coverage revolving around an out of contention Phil Mickelson, an uncompetitive Greg Norman and an ex-president in Bill Clinton. It was unwatchable yesterday and I gave up way before the suspension of play when there had been no sign of those leading the event after a good hour of watching.
Coverage begins again on Sky at 8.00pm and they should concentrate on the leaders tonight. I'm going to look to trade a bit in-running, with an eye to laying anyone that goes odds on. I'll be back tomorrow with the De-Brief.
16.35 - January 21, 2012
A trio of experienced Americans have put a little daylight between themselves and the field at the Humana Challenge and fortunately for me, one of them is Ben Crane, who I backed after the first round at [29.0].
Alongside Crane on -16 are David Toms and Mark Wilson and it looks like a Bob Hope leaderboard of old. Over the last couple of years the big-hitting young guns have started to dominate this event (formally the Bob Hope) but prior to that experienced pros usually came to the fore come Sunday afternoon.
There's a gap of three back to the remainder and I've added one of those on -13 to the portfolio. As an up-and-coming big hitter, Harris English, is the player that matches the profile of recent winners the closest and at a generous price of [44.0] he looked worth taking a chance on.
With low scoring the order of the day, it's hard to be bullish about anyone here. Bill Haas trailed by seven shots at this stage last year but made the play-off and he came from five back to win two years ago. Other recent winners to come from off the pace with two rounds to play include Charley Hoffman (six back in 2007), Justin Leonard (eight back in 2005) and Jesper Parnevik (seven back in 2000). And who can forget David Duval's final round 59 to come from seven back on the final day in 1999.
Given those stats, I'm going to leave it at that for now and cheer on Crane.
Links golf fans were in clover watching the third round of the Volvo Golf Champions today as the wind whipped up and the cream rose to the top.
The halfway leader, Branden Grace, looked shaky at times but a birdie at the final hole means he still retains a share of the lead with Nicholas Colsaerts, who looked much more comfortable playing from off the pace today. After that it's major winners all the way. The next seven on the leaderboard have all won at least one biggy. The pressure will be on the youngsters tomorrow for sure and I'm not particularly confident of collecting on Colsaerts.
Charl Schwartzel, currently a shot out of the lead and alongside Retief Goosen, heads the market and I'm not surprised. He's been slowly improving since returning to action last week at the Joburg Open and his price of [3.75] looks far more appealing than the [4.5] currently available on Grace.
I'm going to hope for the best with Colsaerts but I have added one more, albeit modestly. Paul Krishnamurty had enough faith in the old warrior Ernie Els to side with him from the start. I confess, I was somewhat sceptical, but at [46.0], just four off the lead, he now looks a value play.
Ernies been two-over par through six holes every day so far this week so if he starts a bit better tomorrow he's bound to feel good. Now in the veteran stage, I fancy Ernie wins will be few and far between but this looks like a chance to me. He knows the course intricately and if he gets on a roll he might just post a number that those teeing off behind him struggle to match. And wouldn't that be a fantastic finale to what's been a thoroughly enjoyable tournament.
I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the state of play in the States with a round to go.
18.45 - January 20, 2012
It seems I've vastly underestimated Branden Grace. I thought his win last week was on the lucky side, I could have been wrong...
He had a pretty poor in-contention record prior to that and his opponents were virtually non-existent on the back-nine last Sunday and Grace's level par round, on a course where most players would be disappointed with two or three under, was enough to get the job done.
Moving on to Fancourt this week, even though he lives a mile from the course, I thought his price of under [30.0] was very short. It looks like I was wrong, he's played some scintillating stuff and he takes a four shot lead into the weekend.
Tied for second on -8 are Lee Slattery and Thomas Aiken, who I was supposed to be backing this week! At the end of last year I highlighted Aiken's chance here but he's been so poor over the weekend at his last few events I left him out. A decision I don't regret...yet. I still envisage another Aiken meltdown. They're almost like clockwork.
Of my pre-event picks, Michael Hoey has been pretty hopeless, Thomas Bjorn has ticked along and is currently seven off the lead on -5, and Tom Lewis has today had a shocker.
At one stage yesterday Lewis looked like the only man to serve it up to first round leader Nicholas Colsaerts but it all went pear-shaped as he played the 16th. Colsaerts was in the clubhouse, having shot an incredible nine-under par 64 but with Lewis on -6 with three to play, including two par fives, he looked likely to accompany the Belgian today in the final group but it all changed in seconds. His scorecard was amended, changing an eagle at the 5th hole to a birdie and he double-bogeyed the 16th! He went from challenging to floundering in the time it took me to go and switch the kettle on. I wasn't happy, especially as Colsaerts had come very close to being a pick from the start too!
As disappointing as yesterday was, today has been worse. Lewis recovered to birdie the last two holes of round one yesterday and even with the score change and the double-bogey; he still started today on -5 and tied for second place. He's ended today in a tie for 15th, and he trails Grace by eight.
To make matters worse, I was still keen to get Colsaerts onside and I took a chance on him after he'd bogeyed the third and fourth holes. I knew he was about to play a couple of birdie holes and I fancied he could recover from the poor start and backed him at [11.0]. Oops. He's now available at over [30.0]!
I'm going to let this roll now. I'm tempted to lay Grace at around [2.6] but then I look at his closest challengers, Slattery, Aiken and Jose Maria Olazabal and I'm somewhat put off. At the last tournament played here, the 2006 South Africa Open, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els opened up a considerable gap on the remainder and I fear, if he starts ok tomorrow, that Grace could get away from the field here too. He must know the place like the back of his hand and if he were to end tomorrow four or five clear he may be able to defend that lead on Sunday. Besides, after the start to 2012 that I've had, discretion has to be viewed the better part of valour.
It's still early days at the Humana Challenge but I've already added to my two pre-event bets by backing my old mate Ben Crane at [29.0] after the first round. I thought my woeful form had continued when he bogeyed his first hole of round two but he's bounced back well and is currently leading. Fingers crossed.
It's a funny leaderboard; the majority of fancied players have started very poorly and already look doomed. I'll take a much closer look at this tomorrow morning, while I'm watching events in South Africa, and I'll post again here soon after.
Volvo Golf Champions Selections
Thomas Bjorn @ [42.0]
Tom Lewis @ [50.0]
Michael Hoey @ [85.0]
In-running bet
Nicholas Colsaerts @ [11.0]
Ernie Els @ [46.0]
Humana Challenge Selections:
Scott Piercy @ [110.0]
Jason Kokrak @ [300.0]
In-running bet
Ben Crane @ [29.0]
Harris English @ [44.0]
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