March 31, 2012

2012 WSOP: "The Big One" Getting Even Bigger

Poker News RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"The Big One for One Drop" will be the largest buy-in event in WSOP history, and likely will award the largest prize ever at the Series, too.

Should The Big One reach its 48-player cap, the top nine finishers will cash with 43% of the prize pool going to the winner. That would mean a whopping $18,346,668.96 first prize, crushing the previous WSOP all-time high of $12 million won by Jamie Gold at the 2006 WSOP Main Event.

We are less than two months away from the start of the 2012 World Series of Poker in Las Vegas. Starting May 27th a record 61 bracelet events will be contested through mid-July, plus a 62nd bracelet awarded in the WSOP National Championship culminating the 2011-2012 WSOP-Circuit series. And on July 1st -- just before the Main Event -- will come the biggest buy-in tournament in poker history, the much-heralded $1 million tourney appropriately tagged "The Big One."

First announced at the start of last summer's WSOP, The Big One for One Drop is the brainchild of Cirque du Soleil founder Guy Laliberté. The part-time poker player approached Caesars Interactive Entertainment CEO Mitch Garber -- like Laliberté from Montreal -- regarding the possibility of staging a $1 million tournament at the WSOP in which a portion of the buy-in would go to the One Drop Foundation, a charitable organization Laliberté founded that aims to fight poverty worldwide by increasing access to safe water.

Garber and the WSOP agreed to the idea, with $111,111 of the buy-in designated to go to One Drop. By last December, 22 players had already committed to play in the event. A few months later it appears as though considerably more players will be participating in the The Big One (Event No. 55 on the 2012 WSOP schedule), thus ensuring what will likely be the biggest single first-prize in WSOP history.

WSOP Communications Director Seth Palansky appeared on the Two Plus Two Pokercast last month (the 2/14/12 episode) where among other topics he talked about The Big One. There Palansky noted that when the event was first added to the schedule, it was decided that at least 22 players would have to participate for it to become an official WSOP bracelet event. That total was decided upon as 22 was the field size for the 1976 WSOP Main Event, the first won by Doyle Brunson.

On the show, Palansky spoke of a 48-player cap being put on The Big One, and suggested that there is a great likelihood the event will in fact reach that cap. If that were to happen, the payout schedule for the tournament indicates that with 48 players the top nine finishers will make the money, with 43% of the prize pool going to the winner.

That would mean a whopping $18,346,668.96 first prize, crushing the previous WSOP all-time high of $12 million won by Jamie Gold for finishing first at the 2006 WSOP Main Event. According to the payout schedule, a minimum of 29 must play The Big One for that first prize to trip up over $12 million.

Back in December we learned that 22 players had confirmed their intention to play, a group including Laliberté, Patrik Antonius, Bobby Baldwin, Andy Beal, Johnny Chan, Jonathan Duhamel, Tom Dwan, Bertrand Grospellier, Tony Guoga, Gus Hansen, Daniel Negreanu, Phil Ruffin, and Dan Shak.

palansky.pngOn the podcast, Palansky also tossed out a few other interesting items regarding who will be participating in The Big One. There he said we should expect to find people from the sports world, lottery winners, hedge fund managers, and some Macau businessmen among the participants. Palansky also indicated at least one woman would be playing as well.

I had a chance this week to ask Palansky a few follow-up questions regarding The Big One and expectations regarding it.

Short-Stacked Shamus: On the Two Plus Two Pokercast you mentioned that there was a good chance The Big One would reach its cap of 48 players. Is there any chance that cap might be lifted if needed?

Seth Palansky: The cap at 48 will stay in place. The only possible exception is due to a guaranteed Mega Satellite ($25,300) we're running at the Rio on June 30. We'll award one seat per 40 entries there, thus all those winners would be guaranteed seats.

SSS: What percentage of the field will be familiar to most of the poker world (e.g., well-known pros, Laliberté, Ruffin, etc.) and what % will be those largely unknown to a lot of us?

SP: I think you will recognize 60-70 percent of the names/faces, but a large percentage will be unfamiliar to most. There is a lot of interest from the business community.

SSS: There was a bit of hubbub over the last week regarding a player attempting to recruit backers to participate in the event. Any thoughts on such arrangements?

SP: Yes, I heard the most recent creative way to get into this event. It isn't the first. A gentleman in the U.K. is/was trying something similar. Our thoughts are that we applaud the creativity, however we prefer this event to be looked at through its intended charitable light and for those who can afford the buy-in themselves. There are also a host of legal and regulatory challenges in soliciting monies and we certainly don't recommend or encourage that approach, despite perhaps the good intention.

Regarding Palansky's latter point about The Big One's charity component, should 48 players participate that will mean the event will ultimately raise more than $5.33 million for the One Drop Foundation, not to mention increase the charity's profile and thus encourage more to contribute.

Of note, all donations to One Drop go to support its many projects designed to get water to those in need as well as increase awareness regarding water shortages worldwide, with all of the foundation's administrative expenses covered by Laliberté. You can find out more about One Drop at the foundation's website.

It appears even before the first hands of The Big One have been dealt that the tournament will have been a success. And once the tourney does begin on July 1 there will be a great deal of attention on the event to see who among the players walks away with the biggest-ever prize in poker. For more details on the tournament, including the structure (in which players will start with 3 million chips!), click here.

Much thanks to Seth Palansky for taking the time to answer questions about The Big One.

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Premier League Previews: Villa and Chelsea to share the spoils

Premier League RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish

Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish

"Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa’s three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation."

Chelsea have played almost three times as many games as Aston Villa in the month of March and that could be a factor in deciding the outcome this weekend says Feizal Rahman, with the draw his recommended bet.


Aston Villa v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [4.9], Chelsea [1.88], The Draw [3.7]

Villa continue to show the sort of regressive form that has left them three places above the drop zone. Alex McLeish's side have managed just two victories in 2012, with four draws and four losses. The Claret and Blue have six defeats in their last ten at Villa Park, with just one win in eight.

Under the lead of Roberto Di Matteo, Chelsea have progressed in the FA Cup and Champions League. However, in the league, Opta state that they have only two wins from nine and, on the road, they have lost their last three and picked up maximum points just once since the turn of the year.

Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa's three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation. The Blues will also not be encouraged by a poor record against Villa recently.

Opta note that Chelsea have won just once in their last 12 visits to Villa Park, otherwise losing four and drawing seven. Consequently, Chelsea look a lay at [1.88] in the Match Odds market with more appeal about the [3.7] on offer for the Draw.

Villa have struck just five times in their last eight at home, however, Chelsea have found the net only twice in their last five away games. Under 2.5 Goals should attract at [1.85] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score available at [12.0] and [8.0] respectively.


Everton v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Everton [1.9], West Brom [4.7], The Draw [3.7]

Everton have finally kicked into gear after their traditional slow start to the season and the Blue half of Merseyside are now just two points off neighbours, Liverpool - who they will go on to play in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley next month.

Back-to-back away wins in the league and cup will boost the confidence of David Moyes' men who have suffered just two league defeats in their last 10. A loss to Arsenal ended a run of three straight victories at Goodison Park, each over sides in the top five.

Having previously won three on the spin themselves, West Brom have picked up just a point from their most recent three in the league. However, Opta state that Roy Hodgson's side have suffered only two losses in the last nine away trips. Yet, Everton have won three of the five Premier League meetings between the two at Goodison with West Brom's sole victory coming in November 2010.

The Baggies have failed to score in just four of their 15 away games so far this season. However, the Toffeemen remain stingy at home and - as Opta reveal - they have conceded only once in their last four, with 10 of the last 12 fixtures at Goodison producing two goals or fewer.

Everton should get back to winning ways and are [1.9] for the victory. Under 2.5 Goals looks reasonably priced at [1.94] but Under 1.5 Goals could appeal more at [3.7] , with a 1-0 Correct Score on offer at [8.6].


Fulham v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Fulham [1.75], Norwich [5.4], The Draw [4.0]

Fulham have lost their last three games, failing to score in each, as Opta inform us. Yet, the solid home record of Martin Jol's men has kept them out of trouble and ahead of a 3-0 defeat to Swansea last time out, they had six wins from eight at Craven Cottage, with a whopping 18 goals scored.

Inconsistency has been Norwich's problem all season, only able to put together a short run of point-winning form before a string of defeats. Away from home, the Canaries have three losses from their last four though were undefeated in their four prior to that.

According to Opta, Norwich's record against Fulham will offer them scant hope with not a single win in nine meetings since 1986. Three of the last four trips to Craven Cottage have resulted in defeat, the most recent a 6-0 hiding seven years ago.


Fulham should be good for the win at [1.75], while Over 2.5 Goals looks a safe bet at [1.8] with just one of the last seven at Craven Cottage failing to deliver at least three goals. Yet, the West Londoners have led at the break just four times all season so it may pay to back the Half Time Draw at [2.4].

Meanwhile, Clint Dempsey has nine goals on home turf this term while on-loan Pavel Pogrebnyak - who has indicated a desire to stay on at Fulham - has four strikes from three starts at the Cottage. The duo are [2.7] and [2.5] to score respectively.


Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Back The Draw @ [3.7]
Everton v West Brom - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Fulham v Norwich - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]

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Soulier Leads EPT Campione Final Table, Busquet 2nd

RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Fabrice Soulier looks to add to his $3.6 million-plus lifetime earnings with a win at EPT Campione (Photo: Neil Stoddart)

Fabrice Soulier looks to add to his $3.6 million-plus lifetime earnings with a win at EPT Campione (Photo: Neil Stoddart)

A sequence of knockouts early on Friday helped catapult Fabrice Soulier into the chip lead, but a late surge by Olivier Busquet helped position him close to Soulier with eight players remaining.

A relatively quick day at the European Poker Tour Campione Main Event on Friday saw the field of 24 swiftly whittled down to eight, with the Frenchman Fabrice Soulier ending the day in front to begin tomorrow's final table as leader. Soulier amassed a stack of 3.48 million by day's end, putting him ahead of a tough group including Olivier Busquet (2nd, 3.011 million) and Jannick Wrang (3rd, 2.882 million).

When play began on Friday, Jannick Wrang led the 24 who'd survived from the starting field of 570 players. Early action saw the short stacks quickly exiting, including Jose Manuel Nadal (24th), Andrea Benelli (20th), and Jean-Philippe Rohr (17th), all among the group earning €15,000 back from their €5,300 buy-in.

With 16 left they redrew for the final two tables, and soon Soulier began his climb up the counts by eliminating Alessandro Minasi in 16th (€20,000). Primoz Adamie followed Minasi to the rail in 15th, also earning €20,000, then Soulier knocked out both Giuseppe Biancouiso (14th) and Alexandre Andermatt (13th), both of whom earned €25,000 for their efforts.

By the time Ramin Hajiyev (12th) and Pasquale Vinci (11th) had been eliminated -- both taking away €30,000 -- Soulier had surged to the top of the counts to battle start-of-day leader Wrang and Balazs Botond for the lead.

However, Olivier Busquet would be the star of the final stretch, scoring the final two knockouts before play concluded.

First Busquet knocked out David Vamplew in 10th (€41,000) in a hand in which all of the latter's chips went in on the turn with the board showing 8s-5d-Qd-Ks. Vamplew had Kh-Jh for kings, but Busquet had Qh-8h for two pair, and after the Ah river Vamplew was out.

After that one, Busquet and Simeon Naydenov got into a preflop raising war that resulted in Naydenov all in with Jc-Jd against Busquet's Ah-Kc A king flopped, and Naydenov was unable to catch up, eliminated one spot shy of the final table in ninth (€41,000).

Here's how the final eight will stack up for Saturday's final day of play:

1. Fabrice Soulier -- 3,480,000
2. Olivier Busquet -- 3,011,000
3. Jannick Wrang -- 2,882,000
4. Balazs Botond -- 2,080,000
5. Koen De Visscher -- 1,856,000
6. Stefano Puccilli -- 1,450,000
7. Mario Nagel -- 1,210,000
8. Robin Ylitalo -- 1,153,000

First out tomorrow earns €54,000, while the winner will pick up a cool €640,000 plus the Shamballa Jewels winner's bracelet worth €10,000 more.

Join Betfair Poker Now.

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Serie A Previews: Parma and Lazio to end all square

Italian Football RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Edy Reja deserves more recognition for his achievements as Lazio boss

Edy Reja deserves more recognition for his achievements as Lazio boss

"Lazio haven’t drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome."

Dave Farrar previews this weekend's Serie A action and believes Parma and Lazio will share the spoils, whilst there'll be plenty of goals in Siena to make the 'Overs' bet a decent-price winner.


Parma v Lazio

When these two teams met here on Valentine's Day 2010, Edy Reja was starting his Lazio managerial career after the sacking of the maverick Davide Ballardini. For all of his occasionally difficult relationship with the board at the Olimpico, Reja has done a pretty remarkable job, and his efforts in steering Lazio to third place in the league aren't attracting the credit that they deserve.

Francesco Guidolin will win many awards, but maybe it's Reja who deserves them. Reja's big problem this time at the Tardini is the absence of Miroslav Klose. It's not just the German's 12 goals that have made him key to the team, but the impact that he has on Lazio's all round play. He holds the ball up for energetic runners, and his five match injury absence really couldn't have come at a worse time.

It seems that the line will be led by the veteran Tommaso Rocchi and the low impact new signing Emiliano Alfaro, and even though Parma have been leaky at the back this season, they'll feel that they can keep out a team that needed a late winner to beat Cagliari last week and failed to score against Catania the week before.

Recent history is against Parma, who haven't beaten Lazio here since 2004, but they're priced at [2.68] to get the win here, with Lazio at [3.1] . That seems short enough, as I'm unconvinced by Roberto Donadoni and Parma's struggles in front of goal mean that they're by no means certain to find a way through what might look like a defensive Lazio.

Reja knows that, with games against Napoli and Juventus to come, they could do with three points here to give their end of season push some momentum, but I think that he and Donadoni are likely to be disappointed. Lazio haven't drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome.

Recommendation: Back Draw in Parma v Lazio @ [3.2]


Siena v Udinese

This is one of those odd Serie A fixtures. There's no overwhelming reason why games between Siena and Udinese should produce goals, but since Udinese won 2-0 at the Friuli in 2007 there have been 18 goals in the six matches involving these teams.

If you believe in the theory of reversion to the mean, then you'll be keen to take a look at Under 2.5 Goals which is available at [1.66]. 'Overs' are [2.34], and that seems a little big given the likely nature of the game that we'll see.

Udinese were awful in Palermo last week, but they did well to salvage a point late on, and I think that we'll see the approach that led to that equaliser from the start in Tuscany. Francesco Guidolin's team will play at a high tempo, and Antonio Di Natale will enjoy the space that Siena are likely to give him. He has scored six career goals against them, and could add to that here.

Sice the league resumed in January, five of Udinese's eight away games have featured at least three goals, while four of Siena's seven have done likewise. That makes [2.34] a price that I'm happy to take, and I certainly wouldn't put you off the [2.88] that's available for an Udinese win. They are too good a side, and Guidolin too astute a coach, to simply let their season fizzle out. Over 2.5 Goals though, is the bet.

Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 goals in Siena v Udinese @ [2.34]


Elsewhere this weekend, it will be interesting to see how the top two cope with awkward looking fixtures.

Milan are [1.39] to win the title with Juventus [3.55], and one thing I expect to continue developing is the dominance that both of these teams are showing over the rest of the division.

Juve are at home to Napoli, and I expect them to take advantage of their recent resurgence and put the southerners away at [1.88] while Milan go to Catania, who are performing so well for Vincenzo Montella. Milan are [2.18] to win, and I think that they're a little overpriced.

Too much is being made of Catania's good recent run: they're good, but not in the same league as Milan. Juve and Milan will be worth supporting over coming weeks, but I still feel that the Rossoneri will do just enough to hang onto the title.

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La Liga Weekend Matches: Los Leones to submit quickly at Camp Nou

Spanish Football RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bully boys: Osasuna's combative style could make trouble for Real Madrid

Bully boys: Osasuna's combative style could make trouble for Real Madrid

"Mendilibar’s been beaten only three times in 23 at the Reyno de Navarra, and only once was the margin of defeat more than an odd goal"

Osasuna will have their claws out for Real Madrid, says Tobias Gourlay, but the Lions of Athletic Bilbao will not roar in Barcelona

Osasuna v Real Madrid
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Osasuna [8.6] Real [1.45] draw [5.0]

After running with the bulls, visiting the Reyno de Navarra is about the next toughest thing you can do in Pamplona. Even the Big Two don't often have it easy: Barca lost 3-2 there last month and Opta reports that Real have scored just once in failing to win any of their last three games away to Osasuna (W0-D1-L2).

Osasuna are having an unusually good season too. Jose Luis Mendilibar's men are unbeaten in six at the moment and nose-bleedingly close to the Champions League places.

Mesut Ozil returns from suspension this weekend, but Real's recent record also suggests it will be a close game. Although Jose Mourinho's men have taken 13 points from 15 on the road, they have won none of those games by more than a single goal.

Mendilibar's been beaten only three times in 23 at the Reyno de Navarra, and only once was the margin of defeat more than an odd goal. What's more, the Big Two between them have only won one of their last ten matches there by a couple of goals or more. The Asian Handicap's the place to go.

Recommended Bet: Back Osasuna +1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ [1.80]

Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Barcelona [1.13] Athletic [26.0] draw [11.0]

Barcelona have won this fixture in each of the last seven seasons and the teams' 2-2 draw in a sodden Bilbao last November stands alone as a reason to suppose they won't emerge victorious once again on Saturday.

Traditionally unable to compete with Barca and Real Madrid for an entire season, Athletic tend to commit their more limited resources to cup competitions. The Basques have an excellent Copa del Rey record - they've won it more times than Real and are in the final again this season - and it seems that a rare dedication to the Europa League is damaging their league performances.

Athletic have impressed the rest of Europe with their performances around the continent - most recently they beat Schalke 4-2 in Germany on Thursday - but Marcelo Bielsa's game-plan demands huge commitments of energy from his players and since beating Manchester United at Old Trafford early this month los Leones have taken one point from 12 in La Liga.

Barca's nine-game winning streak came to an end in Milan on Wednesday, but the performance was good and, with Real's lead at the top down to six points, the motivation to win this match is strong.

Athletic are safe from relegation, have already qualified for Europe next season via the cup and have hardly stepped off the return flight from Germany. Pep Guardiola might rest a couple of players, but Messi should start, all will be keen to put this game to bed early ahead of next week's return match with AC Milan and Barcelona/Barcelona has paid out in nine of their last ten.

A word about the main man: in all competitions, he's scored in 15/18 at the Camp Nou this season, and on each of his last ten appearances. He's scored at least twice in 11 of those games, including five of the most recent six. And he's fired hat-tricks - or better - in 6/18, including each of the last three.

These numbers are without precedent in the history of exchange betting and some of the layers seem to have trouble adjusting to the heightened reality of the little man. Prices around [1.5] To Score, [2.3] To Score 2 Goals or More and [8.0] To Score a Hat-trick are possible and all would be generous.

Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona/Barcelona @ [1.50]

Malaga v Real Betis
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports Xtra)
Malaga [1.7] Betis [5.6] draw [4.0]

Space for just a few words about Saturday's other televised game, but no matter, because the stats say it all: Malaga have won five in a row at La Rosaleda; Real Betis have lost 10/12 on the road.

Recommended Bet: Back Malaga @ [1.7]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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Evening Market Movers: Friday March 30

Market Movers RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Wolverhampton and Dundalk

Wolverhampton
17.55
Elshabakiya 1.37 in to 1.13

18.25
Bilidn 5.13 in to 3.7
Den machine 2.85 out to 4.4
Who Loves Ya Baby 11.72 in to 7.0

18.55
Eshaab 1.98 in to 1.6
Cloudy Spirit 5.4 out to6.6

19.55
Winter Hill 3.9 in to 2.04
Ghost Train 3.3 out to 5.5
Derivatives 4.1 out to 7.2
Chesterslittlegem 10.5 in to 7.8

20.25
Waabel 4.21 in to 3.0
Methaaly 6.53 out to 7.8
Whipphound 11.18 in to 8.8

20.55
Avonrose 8.0 in to 3.9
April Fool 4.6 out to 6.2
Fleetwoodsands 7.8 out to 11.0


Dundalk
18.15
Gathering Power 2.98 in to 2.1
Tiger Sunset 6.0 in to 4.9

18.45
Akasaka 3.2 in to 2.54

19.15
Sharalam 4.0 in to 2.92

19.45
An Cat Dubh 5.1 out to 7.4
Flashy Falcon 18.0 in to 8.2

20.15
Kanes Pass 4.33 out to5.5

20.45
Charismas Birthday 5.2 in to 4.2
Noble Four 14.5 in to 9.4

21.15
Peggarty 7.2 in to 5.2
Waterloo Sunrise 8.2 in to 6.8

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IPL Outright Betting: Go out with a Bang

Indian Premier League - IPL RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mohammed Kaif (left) and Dirk Nannes (right) enjoy themselves for Bangalore last year

Mohammed Kaif (left) and Dirk Nannes (right) enjoy themselves for Bangalore last year

"The days of the smaller franchises shocking their big-city rivals seems to have passed.The IPL has settled down into a groove where the small fry get gobbled up."

Ed Hawkins, SJA Betting Writer of the Year, analyses the outright market and marks your card with two selections

The Indian Premier League is becoming something that it was not supposed to: predictable. Corruption scandals and rows over franchises - Kochi no longer exist - are the norm while, perhaps most surprisingly of all the same team, Chennai Super Kings, keep winning the thing.

It is no wonder that there is an argument that the IPL, which is now in its fifth edition, is losing its lustre. Television viewing figures are down and attendances are not what they were. Still, it remains a cash cow for the players and for the punters prepared to tie their money up until May 27.

Inevitably, our main concern as gamblers has to be how straight the competition is. There are bookies in India who insist that the whole thing is rotten but there is a consistency in team's performances which give us confidence.

Chennai, for example, will go for their third consecutive victory. With a win percentage of 58 since the tournament's inception they are the most successful side and have never failed to qualify for the semi-finals. They are worthy favourites at [4.90].

Mumbai Indians are the next best with a win-rate of 55, although they are the nearly men of the IPL, or the chokers if you want to be harsh. They are the pretenders. All the gear, no idea. Well, not how to close out a competition anyway.

With Sachin Tendulkar as their leader they often go off like the proverbial rocket in the group stages, only to falter when the pressure is on in the knockouts. Last year they finished third and in 2010 they were the runners-up.

At [5.20] they are second favourites and they make little appeal. Their record is a concern and although they have Kieron Pollard to blast late runs, they have an oddly balanced squad. Mumbai have cherry picked some of the best bowlers - Lasith Malinga, Mitchell Johnson, RP Singh, Munaf Patel - but forgotten to bolster their batting. Odd.

It is a wonder why Royal Challengers Bangalore are not closer to the Indians in the betting for they are similar in style: fast starters only to fall at the last. Runners-up last year they made the semis the previous year.

But Bangalore do have a more eye-catching squad than Mumbai. Chris Gayle, the top runscorer last term with 608, is teamed up with AB De Villiers and Tillakaratne Dilshan. This is all well and good but what is most pleasing is the presence of natives Zaheer Khan, Virat Kohli and Saurab Tiwary.

Delhi Daredevils, under the questionable stewardship of Virender Sehwag, are [6.80] but have flattered to deceive since IPL 1. They always look a dispirit, preening, individualistic outfit, which is saying something for this circus. Kevin Pietersen is this year on their roster but they appear to be a team on the wane.

Kolkata Knight Riders are an improving outfit and could be worth a back-to-lay at [9.00]. Gautam Gambhir is a feisty leader and they have the brand of players for success. A fast opener in Brendon McCullum, a middle-order hitter in the shape of Eoin Morgan and lower-order class with Yusuf Pathan and Shakib Al-Hasan. Brett Lee is an experienced death bowler, too.

Otherwise, the days of the smaller franchises shocking their big-city rivals seems to have passed. The IPL has settled down into a groove where the small fry get gobbled up.

Rajasthan, led by Rahul Dravid, and winners of the inaugural tournament, are [18.0]. They have notable performers in Shane Watson and Sreesanth but must unearth more young talent like Ravi Jadeja, who is this year's most expensive purchase, by Chennai, to have a chance.

Deccan look to have the worst squad by far while Pune will be led by Sourav Ganguly. These two could be cut adrift. King's XI have an aged squad, handing out last pay cheques to Dimitri Mascarenhas, Romesh Powar, Azhar Mahmood and Adam Gilchrist.

Recommended bets
Bangalore to win IPL at [6.6]
Kolkata to win IPL at [9.0]

Andrew Hughes gives us the low down on the top tournament run scorer market and picks out a couple of players to have on your side.

There will be some new faces and some notable absentees in this year's IPL. Andrew Hughes brings us up to date with all the personnel changes.

Despite a few issues concerning Yuvraj Singh's replacement as skipper of Pune, the IPL field has been finalised. Chris Gayle is back for the Royal Challengers Bangalore but a return to international cricket for him still seems unlikley at the...


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Betfair withdraws Kettering sponsorship after expulsion threat

Non-league RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kettering will not be wearing the retro kit after the Conference Premier and Blue Square issued the club with a 'stark ultimatum'

Kettering will not be wearing the retro kit after the Conference Premier and Blue Square issued the club with a 'stark ultimatum'

"Our intention was to make a donation and raise awareness of their plight. We feel as though we’ve done that."
Betfair's Alex Bake

Kettering Town won't be wearing a one-off retro seventies kit made especially by Betfair on Saturday after all. Here's why...

Betfair have regrettably withdrawn their one-off shirt sponsorship of Kettering Town FC after the cash-strapped club were threatened with expulsion from the Conference Premier following a challenge by league sponsors Blue Square.

However, Betfair will keep their word and make the full five-figure donation in a show of good faith.

The club, in dire need of a cash injection to avoid going out of business, had agreed to play Saturday's game against Stockport County in a kit specially designed by Betfair. The 1976 inspired strip was to mark the Poppies' pioneering status as the first UK club to carry a shirt sponsor.

On Thursday afternoon Blue Square, in conjunction with the Conference Premier, issued the club with a stark ultimatum - wear the shirts and be kicked out of the division. The move by the league sponsors echoes the problems faced by the club in 1976 when the FA ordered them to remove their first sponsor Kettering Tyres.

The fans are also set to miss out as season ticket holders were due to receive a rebate to attend the match for just £1 - the cost of entry in 1976.

Betfair's Alex Bake said: "Our intention was to make a donation and raise awareness of their plight. We feel as though we've done that.

"I'm surprised that the league sponsors have taken such an aggressive stance given that we're trying to ensure the survival of one of their teams. We've agreed to make the donation in full regardless of Saturday's activity."

Kettering Town acting Chairman George Rolls said: "It's frustrating that we've had to pull the sponsorship. On behalf of everyone at Kettering Town I'd like to thank Betfair for their generous donation."

Way back in the 70s Kettering Town were the first English club to adopt a shirt sponsor, so to celebrate the fact that Betfair will be the club's shirt sponsors this weekend we asked 70s crooner Alex Lee to tell...

Sponsorship is a great source of revenue for football clubs and players these days which is why Betfair have agreed a one-off money-spinning shirt deal with Kettering Town. Here Mike Norman takes a look at some of the best and...

Betfair shows solidarity for Kettering Town with one-off, money-spinning shirt sponsorship...


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Timeform Daily: Lincoln Handicap, Saturday, Doncaster 15:15

Race of the Day RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Fury (grey) bounce back and again lead home a big field?

Can Fury (grey) bounce back and again lead home a big field?

"Fury lost his way towards the end of 2011 but is potentially well treated as a result and, having been gelded, is worth siding with..."

Timeform take a look at the runners for a typically competitive Lincoln Handicap, run over Town Moor's straight mile...

Edinburgh Knight thrived in 2011, signing off with success in 1m listed race at Kempton. Strong traveller who may do even better this year and has good record fresh.

Eton Forever ran away with Spring Mile here on last year's reappearance. Fine efforts in strong handicaps last 2 starts, behind Man of Action over C&D second occasion. Still unexposed and leading claims.

Smarty Socks won 2 big-field 7f handicaps last summer but just as effective over 1m. Has won fresh, but needs a career best to land this on return.

Man of Action improved again upon joining Godolphin, winning competitive C&D handicap at the St Leger meeting. Not at best in 2 runs at Meydan this year, however, and change of headgear needs to do trick.

Start Right was a useful performer for Luca Cumani, making frame in competitive events on 3 of 4 starts in 2011 and carried on in similar vein for Godolphin at Meydan in recent months. Visored first time here.

Mia's Boy is a hold-up performer who won 2 of last 3 starts in 2011, adding to good record here first occasion. Ran a blinder and not beaten far at Wolverhampton last time and place claims at big price.

Field of Dream has not won since days with Luca Cumani in 2010. Respectable effort for new yard at Meydan on return but way more needed to prevail here.

Cocozza won 7f Cork maiden at 2 yrs for John Oxx and signed off last season with 2 good efforts over 1¼m. Been well backed ahead of return/handicap debut for new trainer and unexposed.

Pintura was placed 4 times in valuable turf handicaps last season. Weighted to the hilt now, though, and poor effort behind several of these on reappearance at Wolverhampton.

Fury was unbeaten at 2 yrs, landing valuable sales race. Nose second to Tazahum highlight of disappointing 2011, but no surprise to see him prove different proposition this year having been gelded.

Askaud won class 3 fillies handicaps at Goodwood and Haydock (10.5f) last summer. Found listed company too strong final 2 starts and this looks too tough on reappearance.

Lowther was kept busy by Alan Bailey last year, winning twice at Wolverhampton and generally holding form well. Shown nothing in 2 runs at Dubai Carnival for current yard, though.

Clockmaker won twice at end of 2011 and solid efforts in defeat on polytrack since, third in listed race last time. Weighted right up to his best on return to a handicap, though.

Mull of Killough often shaped well for Richard Fahey and opened account for new yard at first attempt in 1m Lingfield handicap in January. Interesting on his third off current mark in this in 2010.

Brae Hill is a tactically versatile sort who raced alone on the stands' side when capturing the 7f Bunbury Cup last summer. Disappointing after, but second on return in this last year off same mark.

Don't Call Me signed off 2011 with success in 1m Ayr handicap on soft ground, responding well to refitting of tongue tie. Returns on career-high mark and others more persuasive.

Light From Mars won last year's Newbury Spring Cup (1m) for David Nicholls. 2 lb below that mark now and shaped encouragingly on return at Wolverhampton. Conditions will suit and an interesting contender.

Stevie Thunder's victories in 1m handicaps last summer preceded second in Cambridgeshire. Ran well in minor event when last seen in October but career best needed to make successful return in this.

Shavansky is a slow starter who posted couple of good efforts after taking 1m Chepstow handicap last summer. Not too harshly treated on return but would be surprise winner.

Amitola was as good as ever when making all in 1m Lingfield handicap in February, but come up short off revised mark twice since and this is even tougher.

Barren Brook won at York (9f) and here (1¼m) last summer and couple of creditable runs after. Seemingly hiding nothing from handicapper on return, though, and needed reappearance last season.

Dubai Dynamo ran well off higher marks in some competitive handicaps last season and some promise to take from 2 runs on polytrack in recent weeks. Not hard to make stronger case for others, though.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Fury
2. Cocozza
3. Eton Forever

Timeform View: A typically competitive Lincoln. Fury lost his way towards the end of 2011 but is potentially well treated as a result and, having been gelded, is worth siding with to continue his yard's fine record in the race. The unexposed Cocozza is interesting on debut for Marco Botti, while the likes of Eton Forever, Mull of Killough, Light From Mars and Mia's Boy should all go well.
...........
Racehorses of 2011 is out now and contains essays on the top performers, over 300 photos, Timeform Top 100s and much more. Click HERE to secure your copy.

The world's richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31, has attracted a star-studded fourteen-runner field. Timeform give you their assessment of the race, runner by runner.......

It's all about quality on Turffontein's day-night card on Saturday as the SA Classic (due off 16:20 BST), the continent's richest race for three-year-old's, takes place over the track's tough 1800m. Here is a guide to the runners......

Timeform provide a runner-by-runner guide to a a fascinating handicap hurdle at Wetherby on Friday......


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Donald McCain: Ballabriggs bang on course for Aintree

Donald McCain RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ballabriggs is on course to defend his Grand National crown.

Ballabriggs is on course to defend his Grand National crown.

"as well as Overturn, I would think that the likes of Absinthe, Sud Pacifique, Constant Contact and Bourne will all end up running on the Flat at some stage....."

Another steady week for the McCain team as attentions turn to Aintree......and, whisper it, the Flat season.

There's a bit of a lull between Cheltenham and Aintree and we have a quiet weekend lined up, albeit there are a couple who look to have decent chances.

Things have carried on nicely this week with a few more winners and the horses seem to be holding their form very well, despite some of them having been kept very busy.

We're up to 137 winners for the year now which is certainly beyond any expectations I had at the start of the season.

We look to have a strong team building up for Aintree, even with Cinders And Ashes now missing the meeting, and it's a track at which I am obviously very keen to do well at.

Ballabriggs was the star of the show last year and things are ticking over nicely with him at home. I had been keen to give him another racecourse gallop between Kelso and the National but, with the weather as it has been, there haven't really been any suitable opportunities.

He's doing plenty of work at home though and I couldn't be happier with him in the build up - we'll just keep chipping away and hopefully we will get him there in the same form as last year.

I was asked the other day if I was likely to be keeping many going on the Flat through the summer. It's not something I have tended to do in the past - I know Overturn has been a star - but we have quite a few 85+ rated Flat horses and, reluctantly, I might have to have more of a look this time round!

There will be a few of them kept on the go - as well as Overturn, I would think that the likes of Absinthe, Sud Pacifique, Constant Contact and Bourne will all end up running on the Flat at some stage.

They won't be running for the sake of running, but if the right race pops up at the big meetings, they will be there to take their chance.


Cheltenham Festival winner Cinders And Ashes will bypass Aintree....

Donald has one of his leading juvenile hurdlers in action at Hexham on Sunday....

Donald has a strong team in action at his local track on Saturday....


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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four RSS / / 31 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Carlisle striker Lee Miller

Carlisle striker Lee Miller

Back Bolton @ [3.25]; Lay Leeds @ [1.9]; Back The Draw in Carlisle v Huddersfield @ [3.4]; Back Crewe @ [2.16]; The Multiple pays approximately [50.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.


Wolves v Bolton, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Wolves [2.4], Bolton [3.25], The Draw [3.6]

Two matches stick out like a sore thumb as incorrectly priced this weekend. One is Newcastle v Liverpool. How the Reds are [2.46] favourites to win that game is beyond me. Newcastle are eight points above them in the league table, are in better form, and have home advantage. Liverpool, need you reminding, have lost five out of their last six league games.

I will be backing Newcastle in that game obviously, but it is played on Sunday however so it is no good for inclusion in this column. The onus falls on Bolton instead, and I have to say that I'm equally surprised that they are [3.25] outsiders to beat hapless Wolves.

Terry Connor's men have lost six consecutive league games at Molineux and have conceded a staggering 20 goals in that time. They haven't won in front of their own fans for four months and they look absolutely drained of any confidence, which is obviously having a major impact on how they perform. Bolton meanwhile have won two league games on the bounce, and because of events off the pitch in the last fortnight they appear to have found some belief and fight which could well see them avoid the drop.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Bolton @ [3.25]


Leeds v Watford, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Leeds [1.89], Watford [4.6], The Draw [3.8]

It's certainly not game over for Leeds in terms of a play-off place, but with the teams from 6th to 14th only separated by six points, they have chosen the wrong time to hit an indifferent patch. New manager Neil Warnock has not been able to work the oracle so far, and United have won only two of their last seven. One home win in six attempts is the sort of stat that will stand between Leeds and a place in the top six come the end of the season, and they may well be running into Watford at just the wrong time.

The Hornets were as low as 22nd in mid-October, but Sean Dyche has steered his side to safety with a run of seven wins and three draws in 12 games since the end of January. With Watford currently unbeaten in six, and having lost just one of their last half dozen away fixtures, they could take something home with them.

Andrew French's selection: Lay Leeds @ [1.9]


Carlisle v Huddersfield, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Carlisle [3.4], Huddersfield [2.44], The Draw [3.4]

Carlisle's impressive home form has been the bedrock of a fine season, which has enabled their assault on the play-offs to remain on course. The Foxes are unbeaten at Brunton Park since September and have enjoyed a profitable March.

On-loan striker Jordan Cook netted both goals in Carlisle's 2-1 win over fellow promotion chasers the MK Dons on Tuesday, in what was an open and at times, breathless game. Cook is a good addition, but their best player is fellow forward Lee Miller. His hold-up play and aerial threat suits the team formation superbly.

Meanwhile, Huddersfield's own goal machine Jordan Rhodes netted his 35th of the season against Charlton last weekend to secure a vital 1-0 win over the league leaders. But looking at their away form, the Terriers have drawn far too many games - which was always the problem under Lee Clarke and it might be worth taking a chance on the bigger priced draw for two in-form teams.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back The Draw @ [3.4]


Crewe v Northampton, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Crewe [2.16], Northampton [3.9], The Draw [3.5]

Crewe have had a great run and are unbeaten in eight games, young and highly-rated forward Nick Powell always prominent. Just three defeats since the turn of the year have left them wondering if they can reach the play-offs. They need to beat Northampton if they are to continue that surge but that will be no easy task.

The Cobblers have been greatly improved under Aidy Boothroyd, their strong run waning a little with defeat to Accrington, a narrow and late win - perhaps undeserved - at desperate Burton and a goalless draw with fellow strugglers Plymouth. The Cobblers need a few more points to be sure of staying up, but that might have to wait.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Crawley @ [2.16]


Recommended Multiple

Back Bolton @ [3.25]; Lay Leeds @ [1.9]; Back The Draw in Carlisle v Huddersfield @ [3.4]; Back Crewe @ [2.16]; The Multiple pays approximately [50.0]


*Last week's Multiple was successful and was available to back at combined odds of just over [20.0] prior to kick-off

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....


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March 30, 2012

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Lefty still in the mix

The Punter RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson - Bang there in Houston

Phil Mickelson - Bang there in Houston

“I’ve been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm and I’ve just about had enough for one day. It’s been worth the effort though.”

It's been a long day for the players in Houston and it's been a long day for Steve too, but has it been a good one?

22:05 - March 30, 2012

It's been a long, boring and tiring day spent almost entirely tied to the laptop but it's been worth the effort.

I started out this morning with three pre-event picks in fair positions after day one of the Sicily Open. Day two ended with precisely no pre-event picks in-contention. Not that I'm moaning. It just goes to show how fickle this game is. In stark contrast, after day one in Morocco last week I thought I was out of the game completely, yet Michael Hoey recovered from a seemingly impossible position to win the event - swings and roundabouts and all that.

We've reached halfway in Sicily now and I've just about conceded defeat, for now anyway. With six players tied for the lead on -8, seven a shot back in a tie for 7th and a full dozen sitting on -6, it's nigh on impossible and discretion looks likely to be the better part of valour - though I have had a couple of very small in-running wagers. I've had small win bets on both Garth Mulroy and Richard Green. Both players are amongst the group on -7.

At the Shell Houston Open I've been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm. He came back to finish off round one, which he did very well, and now he's finishing up round two and I've just about had enough for one day. It's been worth the effort though.

Lefty tied for the lead after round one and although, like me, he appears to be running out of steam for the day now, he's still right up there and I've managed to lay back my stake on him at an average of [3.80], which was pretty decent considering the lowest he's been matched at is [3.25], and for money of any sort of note, [3.45].

I've also added Louis Oosthuizen now, who's just hit the front on -11. At [10.5], I haven't got a great price considering I've been watching him move menacingly into the mix for the last couple of hours. I've sort of been hoping he'd go away but I eventually came to the conclusion he wasn't going to. Of course, he probably will now!

Play should go on until the small hours (UK time) but I'm going to call it a day now, I'm shattered. I'll have another look in the morning and see where I stand. Keep going Phil, even if I can't!


14.55 - March 30, 2012

Phil Mickelson is making a nice early move at the Shell Houston Open. He's now four-under par through eight holes and his price for next week's US Masters might just be about to go.

If you were intending to back Lefty for a fourth win at Augusta, now might be the time to do so.


12:05 - March 30, 2012

You really do have to laugh. Guess who bogeyed two holes straight after I'd written "Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see."


11:55 - March 30, 2012

I'll start with events across the pond first, where play was suspended thanks to some pretty nasty weather. Thunder stopped play at around 1.30pm (7.30pm UK time) and flooded fairways following heavy rain prevented any further action.

Only one of my three picks managed to get finished and that was Stuart Appleby, who shot +2. Graham DeLaet has been most unlucky; he has to set his alarm to return to the track early, at 7.30am (1.30pm UK time) to negotiate a three foot par putt on the 9th, his final hole of round one. At least he's on a decent score though, should he tap that in, he'll be just two out of the lead - set jointly by Carl Pettersson and Angel Cabrera, who both shot -7.

My only other pick, Phil Mickelson, has only played three holes so far but at least he's under par having birdied the 1st. It's going to be a long day for those that started yesterday afternoon, or were due to. Nine groups haven't even started round one yet and a couple of groups have only just teed off.

There's a distinct possibility that those that have finished round one already, won't play at all today and they may have had a bit of a result. The organisers are going to be hard-pressed to get this finished on time now. With the US Masters starting on Thursday, the plan remains to get the event done and dusted by 5.00pm on Sunday so the players can get to Augusta in good time. They won't want anymore interruptions.

It's been a curious start to the Sicily Open where, with the wind switching and the weather warming, the afternoon starters shot an average of 1.3 strokes less than the morning guys on day one. Then, for much of this morning, playing in what appear benign conditions, nobody seems to be kicking on.

Day one ended with Peter Lawrie in front on -8, one ahead of Jamie Donaldson, Soren Kjeldsen and Tano Goya and as I write, the first of the morning starters are ending their rounds and the lead is still only -8.

The best of my picks so far is James Morrison, who was on -7 when the coverage ended last night before he bogeyed the last and then this morning, he's only level par for round two so far. That's more than a little disappointing but at least he traded short enough to reach the first lay-back target set in the Find Me a 100 Winner column. Albeit only just.

Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see. It's going to be a busy day, so I'll probably post again at some point.

Sicilian Open Pre-Event Selections:
Tommy Fleetwood @ [70.0]
Scott Jamieson @ [70.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Play bets
Richard Green @ [16.0]
Garth Mulroy @ [38.0]


Shell Houston Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Stuart Appleby @ [250.0]

In-Play bets
Layed Phil Mickelson @ [3.80]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [10.5]

Steve takes a look at this week's PGA Tour action from Texas, where he fancies Phil Mickelson could very well defend his title...

Our man takes a detailed looked at this week's Race to Dubai event, where there's a brand new venue to ponder. Who's going to be suited to the Kyle Philips designed Verdura Golf & Spa?...

Tiger Woods wins his first official PGA Tour event for 30 months, as he makes it a magnificent seven at Bay Hill. And it's been a good week for Steve too as his pre-event [85.0] pick, Michael Hoey, wins the...


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Timeform Dubai SmartPlays: World Cup Card, Saturday March 31

Tipping RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jeremy Noseda: Trains Meydan nap Western Aristocrat

Jeremy Noseda: Trains Meydan nap Western Aristocrat

"Jeremy Noseda has an excellent record with his runners in Dubai and Western Aristocrat was just beginning to really get his act together towards the end of last year..."

Timeform Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux brings you his SmartPlay selections for the $10 million Dubai World Cup card...

14:10 - African Story will be the strongest favourite of the night in the opening Godolphin Mile but the value lies elsewhere, specifically with Western Aristocrat. Jeremy Noseda has an excellent record with his runners in Dubai and Western Aristocrat was just beginning to really get his act together towards the end of last year, winning a Grade 1 in America and also finishing a fine third in the Hollywood Derby on his final outing. His form has more depth and hopefully he can get us off to a good start.

14:45 - The Dubai Gold Cup looks a match between Fox Hunt and Opinion Poll and that is the order in which I think they will finish. Jockey bookings suggest otherwise but my take on Frankie Dettori riding Opinion Poll is that he is a tricky horse and Dettori knows him well whilst Fox Hunt was a regular ride for Silvestre de Sousa last year so it makes sense to go that way. Fox Hunt has more to offer at this trip and should hopefully confirm form with Opinion Poll from their running in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy last time.

15:25 - Aidan O'Brien sends his strongest ever team to Dubai and Wrote could be the first of potentially at least two winners for Ballydoyle when he takes his chance in the UAE Derby. Wrote progressed with each run last year, culminating in victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and a reproduction of that effort should see him have too much for the likes of Mickdaam and stablemate Daddy Long Legs.

16:00 - The Al Quoz Sprint is hugely competitive and it wouldn't surprise me if the whole field are priced up at double figures on Betfair. I will probably back a couple as I love tackling these sprints and Addictive Dream will be high on the list having really impressed me in Dubai this year. He won both his races on turf and shaped as if still in form on tapeta last time when again trying to slip his field over two furlongs out but having nothing left on the more demanding surface. The other one to throw in the mix is Prohibit, who had valid excuses for his defeat last time and is over-priced as a result.

16:35 - The other sprint on the card, the Dubai Golden Shaheen, is less competitive in terms of depth but just as difficult to solve. The Australiians will be cheering on Sepoy, the Americans Giant Ryan and The Factor whilst old favourite Rocket Man will also have plenty of support, but I prefer Krypton Factor who has really impressed me since reverting to six furlongs. A tough juvenile for Sir Mark Prescott, he has really thrived of late and had plenty in hand when beating Hitchens last time despite enduring a wide trip. He should stalk the pace from stall five and hopefully Kieren Fallon will be able to make his move at the two-furlong marker and prove hard to run down.

17:25 - The Dubai Duty Free regularly eclipses the Dubai World Cup for strength in depth and this year's renewal is no different. The Hong Kong challenge is really strong, to the point of me almost deserting my old mate Mutahadee, but Mike de Kock simply can't not have a winner on this card given his unwavering support for the Dubai Racing Carnival as a whole and Mutahadee could be his best chance. He positively bolted up on his first two starts this season and simply had too much to do when third behind Master Of Hounds in the Jebel Hatta last time, still showing a fine turn of foot to get into a challenging position at all. He has been well backed since the markets for this race opened and hopefully his supporters will be collecting their rand come the finish.

18:00 - Godolphin seem sure to have a winner at some point and I'm hoping that Cavalryman will do the business in the Dubai Sheema Classic. It's easy to forget that Cavalryman finished third in the Arc back in 2009 and it's just as easy to remember that he hasn't really threatened to win a race since then. That might be about to change, however, after an encouraging comeback that saw him run on strongly into second behind Mikhail Glinka in the Dubai City Of Gold recently. He wouldn't be the first horse to revive all of a sudden and whilst Sir Nicholas Abbey and Cirrus Des Aigles will provide stiff opposition, Cavalryman represents the each-way value.

18:40 - My take on the Dubai World Cup can be read HERE and in truth my opinion hasn't changed in the seven days since I wrote that. So You Think was shortened in the aftermath of the barrier draw and it's not hard to see why. As I said, he needs keeping safe in any staking plan whilst I have been encouraged by the confidence surrounding Eishin Flash who is the each-way selection.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Western Aristocrat to win the 14:10 (nap)
Back Fox Hunt to win the 14:45
Back Wrote to win the 15:25
Back Addictive Dream and Prohibit to win the 16:00
Back Krypton Factor to win the 16:35
Back Mutahadee to win the 17:25
Back Cavalyrman to win and place in the 18:00
Back So You Think to win the 18:40, back Eishin Flash to win and place
........
Visit timeform.com to download a race card for Dubai World Cup night.

The world's richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31, has attracted a star-studded fourteen-runner field. Timeform give you their assessment of the race, runner by runner.......

Timeform's Australian team provide you with their three best bets on a Group 1 card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday......

Timeform's North American team give readers three more bets for Friday evening's action......


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Dubai World Cup: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Dubai RSS / / 30 March 2012 / 1 Comments

Who will win the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan?

Who will win the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan?

"So You Think... can add another Group 1 win to his CV."

The world's richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31, has attracted a star-studded fourteen-runner field. Timeform give you their assessment of the race, runner by runner....

Master of Hounds (Mike de Kock/Christophe Soumillon) was just denied in the UAE Derby last year for Aidan O'Brien, and made breakthrough at top level when making all to win Jebel Hatta earlier this month. Unlikely to get his own way here, however.

Eishin Flash (Hideaki Fujiwara/Christophe Lemaire) is a smart performer who won Japanese Derby back in 2010. Continued to run creditably at the top level since, runner-up in Group 1 Arima Kinen on Christmas Day. Could go well at a decent price.

Zazou (Waldemar Hickst/Olivier Peslier) is a smart German-trained runner who beat Rio de La Plata when winning Premio Roma in November. Ended year by finishing third in Hong Kong Cup and claimed scalp of Cirrus des Aigles on reappearance.

So You Think (Aidan O'Brien/Joseph O'Brien) was top class in Australia and won Tattersalls Gold Cup, Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes in first European campaign last year. Should have few problems on this surface and could prove tough to beat.

Smart Falcon (Ken Kozaki/Yutaka Take) is a high-class Japanese front-runner who has won 23 races in his career, including his last 9. Warmed up for this with easy success in listed race in January, and worthy of plenty of respect.

Planteur (Marco Botti/Ryan Moore) looked set for excellent campaign in 2011 when winning first 2 starts, including Prix Ganay. Didn't go on as expected after that, but claims if new yard can get him firing on all cylinders.

Royal Delta (William Mott/Jose Lezcano) was a dual Grade 1 winner in 2011, winning both the Alabama Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic. Not disgraced over inadequate trip on return last month, and should be spot on here.

Monterosso (Mahmood Al Zarooni/Mickael Barzalona) performed creditably in light campaign last year, winning Dubai City of Gold then finishing third in this race. Should be sharper for recent return when fourth to Capponi.

Silver Pond (Doug Watson/Johnny Murtagh) was formerly trained in France by Freddie Head where he won Group 2 at Chantilly last year. Encouraging start for this yard when runner-up to Capponi, but more needed to feature here.

Transcend (Takayuki Yasuda/Shinji Fujita) has a good strike rate and only narrowly denied in this race last year. Since won 2 of his 4 starts, although wasn't at his best when midfield in Group One February Stakes last time.

Capponi (Mahmood Al Zarooni/Ahmed Ajtebi) has continued to progress this year, winning his last 2 starts, latest when beating Silver Pond in Round 3 of Maktoum Challenge. Entitled to a crack at this level.

Prince Bishop (Saeed bin Suroor/Frankie Dettori) has done well since visored, and produced career-best when winning handicap here in January. Only third behind Capponi last time, and difficult to see him proving good enough to win this.

Mendip (Saeed bin Suroor/Silvestre de Sousa) is lightly-raced, but has a good strike rate and won Round 2 of Maktoum Challenge in February. Not in same form when behind Capponi last time, and this tough race in which to bounce back.

Game On Dude (Bob Baffert/Chantal Sutherland) is a consistent performer who won 3 times during 2011 before running best race when second in Breeders' Cup Classic. Tuned up for this by winning Grade 2 at Santa Anita last month.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. So You Think
2. Eishin Flash
3. Smart Falcon

Timeform View: The Japanese-trained Victoire Pisa won this last year and the Japanese are well represented again in a bid to follow-up. The pick of their trio may be Eishin Flash, whilst the prolific Smart Falcon also warrants plenty of respect. However, they may struggle to cope with So You Think, and this globe-trotting star can add another Group 1 win to his CV.

Visit timeform.com to download a race card for Dubai World Cup night.

Timeform Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux brings you his SmartPlay selections for the $10 million Dubai World Cup card......

War, huh, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing apparently. Jamie Lynch takes Edwin Starr to task by suggesting that, rightly or wrongly, war sometimes has its place in framing sporting events, and the Dubai World Cup is one that could benefit from a little extra drama....

"The weather is crap". A direct quote from a Dubai resident as the welcome breeze takes the edge of a temperature soaring into the 30's. Things are also beginning to hot up in advance of the World Cup on Saturday as Timeform's Dubai handicapper, Stephen Molyneux, takes you through some more musings from his days in the desert....


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Gordon Elliott Stable News: Grand National update

RSS / / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aintree beckons for Chicago Grey

Aintree beckons for Chicago Grey

"We schooled Chicago Grey over Grand National-style fences at home this week and we were very pleased with him".

Gordon brings an exclusive update from Capranny, where Chicago Grey has impressed during recent Aintree preparations...

It looks like I'll have two runners in the Aintree Grand National on April 14.

Chicago Grey has long been targeted at the race and we schooled over Grand National-style fences at home this week and we were very pleased with him. Everything seems to be going well in his prep at the moment - touch wood - and we're really looking forward to bringing him to Aintree. Paul Carberry will ride him there.

Tharawaat will get into the race so we're also going to let him take his chance. Davy Condon schooled him over the Grand National-style fences and it also went well for him.

Nedzers Return is being aimed at the Foxhunters' Chase and remains on target for it.

Don Cossack is in very good form at home and he'll go to Fairyhouse on Easter Sunday, provided the ground is safe. I've always said I would be in no rush with him and that's still the case. He could be a bit special so we'll continue to be patient with him, but he'll be ready for the Fairyhouse race, provided the conditions are right for him.

Carlito Brigante had to get eight or nine stitches after being struck into early in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. That's obviously held him up a bit but we'll aim him to have him back for Punchestown. After that, he could go summer jumping, over the larger obstacles.

Cause Of Causes was a bit unlucky not to pick up his maiden hurdle at Downpatrick last weekend but he's come out of the race absolutely fine. I'd say we'll keep him for Punchestown now. We'll also probably keep him on the go through the summer as I think he prefers better ground and he's a horse that could do well on the Flat and over jumps.

Timeform Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux brings you his SmartPlay selections for the $10 million Dubai World Cup card......

Timeform take a look at the runners for a typically competitive Lincoln Handicap, run over Town Moor's straight mile......

The world's richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31, has attracted a star-studded fourteen-runner field. Timeform give you their assessment of the race, runner by runner.......

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Wolverhampton and Dundalk...


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March 29, 2012

Ryan Moore: Good to be on board with Team Betfair!

Industry View RSS / / 29 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ryan guarantees honest opinion throughout his first season blogging for Betfair

Ryan guarantees honest opinion throughout his first season blogging for Betfair

"My column will be starting proper at the start of the Craven meeting but on Saturday morning I will run you through all my rides at the Dubai World Cup meeting and my idea of the likely winners in each race."

Star jockey Ryan Moore is Betfair's latest big name signing. One of Flat racing's finest jockeys, Ryan promises honest verdicts on all his rides and forthright opinions on the main issues in the sport throughout the coming season. Welcome to Betfair, Ryan!

Welcome to my first Betfair column.

Most of you will be aware that I don't have the reputation of being the most talkative and vociferous member of the weighing room but I think I may just surprise a few people in this space this season.

Firstly though, I would like to thank the BHA for relaxing the rules to allow myself, and other jockeys, to write these columns that will hopefully better inform punters.

However, I would like to set expectations here.

If you want to read a jockey criticise all and sundry, then I am not your man. I am not a person to upset anyone for no good reason, or say things for effect.

And I don't think I will shock many people by stating that sometimes a jockey simply cannot say too much, for obvious and various reasons.

I know my fellow Betfair colleague Paul Nicholls is famed for his open approach - and he is a very hard act for me to follow - but trainers often have just themselves to answer to and there are added sensibilities with jockeys in that we deal with agents, owners, racing managers and trainers, as well as other sections of the industry.

The fact is that jockeys juggle more balls than most in this game. And we have to be very careful not to stick one in our own net, as trust can quickly be lost. Everyone riding today will tell you that.

But what you will get from me is my honest analysis of all the horses I ride, and the races they run in.

This will probably get me some stick in the weighing room but I would like to think that I have as good a grasp on the form book as anyone riding today and I take a keen interest in international and US racing, too.

To be successful and make informed choices when riding at big meetings at home and abroad, you have to constantly do your homework and have a world outlook.

And if something needs to be said on industry issues or topics of the day, and I can add to the debate and have something worthwhile to say, then I will not fight shy.

For example, I have my own, strong thoughts on the whip, and doubtless that is a subject I will be focusing on from time to time this season. I still think the rules are a work in progress, but more of that at a later date.

My column will be starting proper at the start of the Craven meeting but on Saturday morning I will run you through all my rides at the Dubai World Cup meeting and my idea of the likely winners in each race.

I have had my injury problems in the past two campaigns, but I start the season very fit and I am raring to go. Let's hope Dubai can set me up nicely for the season ahead.

But more of that next month, starting at the big Newmarket meeting in mid-April.

Come the Craven meeting, I'll be letting you know which horses I'm most looking forward to riding in 2012, my thoughts on the jockeys championship and how I split my time between the big trainers I'm fortunate to ride for.

It's good to be on board, if you pardon the pun.


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