Events 
/ Sean Calvert / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
The outdoor courts favour Nad
"I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer’s more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now."
It's men's semi-final day at the BNP Paribas Open with the headline act being another instalment of Nadal v Federer and Sean Calvert is backing the Spaniard to extend his good record against the Swiss master
It was a tale of two Argentines on Friday at the BNP Paribas Open.
My recommended bet resulted in a disappointing loss for Juan Martin Del Potro, but those who were on my advice of backing David Nalbandian to take the opening set against Rafa Nadal were rewarded with a [4.6] winner.
Saturday is men's semi-final day at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden and first up at around 6pm UK time is Novak Djokovic v John Isner with the world number one priced up at around [1.13] to advance to the final.
This will be the third meeting between the pair, with Djokovic holding a 2-0 lead so far in their series, but they haven't played each other since 2010.
Djokovic looks like he's just coming into form at the right time in this event after a sluggish start, while Isner should have no shortage of confidence after making his second successive Masters 1000 semi.
He also comes into this match with additional self belief after recording his first win over a top four player when he defeated Roger Federer in the Davis Cup recently, so he'll have the right mindset when he steps on court tonight.
I can't see it being quite enough against Djokovic, but the big man should be able to take the match over the 20.5 total games mark if he serves well, which he'll have to against arguably the best returner in men's tennis at the moment.
Nole should have too much variety and a little extra class in this one, but my bet would be the overs at around [1.8].
The second semi final will be part 28 of the Federer v Nadal series, with Rafa holding an 18-9 advantage in competitive matches against the Swiss maestro.
This will be their first ever meeting at Indian Wells and Rafa is priced up at around [1.75] for the win, which is pretty reasonable considering that he's won four of their last five competitive matches and hasn't lost to Federer on an outdoor hard court since Miami in 2005.
Indeed, Rafa leads their series on outdoor hard courts by 5-1 in competitive matches and 7-1 overall, so on the face of it the Spaniard looks a pretty good bet at the current price.
An interesting wager in this match could be the 'second set winner' market, as Rafa has won the second set in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions. If you can get around [1.8] that could be worth an investment.
I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer's more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now.
Del Potro was hugely disappointing yesterday against Fed and admitted to mentally checking out after a bad call cost him the chance to break in the first game of the match, which is a shocking admission from a top-10 player.
Nadal on the other hand had to dig deep against Nalbandian and was a couple of points away from losing, which should have sharpened him up and I expect his usual tactic of wearing Federer's backhand down until it breaks will be victorious again tonight eventually.
Recommended Bet
Back Nadal to beat Federer at [1.75]
Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1
Sean Calvert continues a week of tipping with a look at this intriguing quarter-final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer......
Big-serving John Isner and Sean's nemesis Gilles Simon go head-to-head tonight and though Isner looks the more likely winner, the better bet is that it will be a pretty long match os it's time to turn to the total games...
Sean Calvert found some winners yesterday and on a day where the favourites should mostly prevail, the best bet is the in-form Ryan Harrison. He's up against a player in Gilles Simon with a suspect record here at Indian Wells...
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