English Football League 
/ Ian Lamont / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
James Constable wasn't keen on moving to Oxford's rivals Swindon
"On form, the leaders would tinker as only Paolo Di Canio seems to know best – it keeps the players on their toes - and their quality would shine through. But Oxford also have strength in depth, Scott Rendell and Medhi Kerrouche competing for places."
Ian Lamont picks the best bets from League Two this weekend, including why table-toppers Swindon and promotion-chasers Oxford will both probably be happy to settle for a draw.
Accrington [2.42] Port Vale [3.1] draw [3.35]
Odds-makers are often slow to catch up with form trends. Often, that has applied to Accrington. But the picture has changed after John Coleman's departure. Under him, odds-against meant time to back Stanley, odds-on time to lay off. Not any more. They are in freefall. Paul Cook's time could be short, if the board lose patience and Stanley slip towards being the relegation cannon fodder the pre-season pundits always wanted them to be. For this game, the odds haven't caught up with Port Vale's good form. Accrington lost their last home game 4-0 to Plymouth - and have failed to score in six of their last seven. Micky Adams' men have steamed up the table, unbeaten in six with 14 points. Thus there is little reason to make the hosts favourites. The respective victory prices should be swapped, in my book. Another strike for 11-goal top scorer Marc Richards is overdue. Vale can win despite administration pending, because their fine form has come amid a swirl of rumours of difficulties.
Back Port Vale to win at Accrington @ a huge [3.1]
Plymouth [2.62] Gillingham [2.82] draw [3.4]
Plymouth, for all their changes and new-found battling verve as they battle the drop, don't score enough to build a convincing case they could actually beat a Gillingham. A side who are performing below par and who had to come back from 4-2 down to beat a poor Hereford side 5-4. The fact they did so - with Hereford missing a penalty to go 5-4 up themselves - tells you more about Hereford's defending, fragile confidence and lack winning habit than indicating the Gills' ability to come from behind. They would find it more difficult to do so if they went a goal down at Home Park, where Argyle have only been beaten by Swindon and Torquay in their last 12 home games. Carl Fletcher's men have spirit. The hosts may not win, but this represents a chance of a positive result. Therefore the draw appeals if you find Gillingham too long to lay.
Back Under 2.5 goals and the draw at [3.4]
Oxford [3.1] Swindon [2.42] Draw [3.35] (noon kick-off)
Swindon have extended their club record to 10 straight wins. Where will it end? Derby rivalry has a habit of upsetting form and James Constable's refusal to contemplate a move to Oxford's Wiltshire rivals adds spice. Poor Michael Duberry can't do anything right - scoring a third own goal in a month on Tuesday. On form, the leaders would tinker as only Paolo Di Canio seems to know best - it keeps the players on their toes - and their quality would shine through. But Oxford also have strength in depth, Scott Rendell and Medhi Kerrouche competing for places. Despite the fact the Swindon loanee won't be eligible and Jon-Paul Pittman is unlikely to be rushed back from a hamstring injury, Oxford simply won't want to lose the momentum of five wins and seven draws in the last 13.
Aldershot [2.1] Morecambe [3.85] Draw [3.45]
As a tipster, there's nothing worse than feeling your team won't win. But it's my gut feeling Aldershot are layable. Five straight wins they may have, while conceding just twice. Guy Madjo seems in great touch. I'd be delighted if Dean Holdsworth's men could prove me wrong and continue to narrow the gap to an unlikely play-off charge. The manager's shake-up has undoubtedly worked.
The backline is looking solid. There is much to like. But my hunch - which doesn't mean I think they will lose, just that one of the other two results seems more likely, particularly the draw - is based on Morecambe's away record - just three away defeats. After a great start to the season, Jim Bentley men made their expected fall, but have rallied. The last time they lost away was at the turn of the year. They attack particularly well down the left, through Kevin Ellison, with Jason Price, Danny Carlton and youngster Jordan Burrow battling hard for attacking spots. Poor home form should not distract from fine form on the road.
Lay Aldershot at home to Morecambe at [2.1]
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