The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment ![Jim Furyk – Good value at [4.6] according to The Punter](/Furyk20at20the20Transitions.jpg)
Jim Furyk – Good value at [4.6] according to The Punter
“Given the record of third round leaders, I quite like Furyk here and I’ve backed him at [4.6].”
It's still too close to call in Spain but Steve likes the chances of Jim Furyk in the States. Can he become the eighth third round leader to win in 12 years?
14:05 - March 18, 2012
The Open de Andalucía still looks nigh on impossible but I've taken a chance in-running on Hennie Otto. I've had a very moderate bet at [8.0].
11:20 - March 18, 2012
With just one round to go, I'm still keeping my in-running powder dry at the Open de Andalucía. The leaderboard is still chock-a-block and almost as bemusing today as it was yesterday. I tried to back Tournament Host Miguel Angel Jimenez at [9.4] overnight but I didn't get matched.
Eduardo de la Riva still has his nose in front on -12 but he's closely followed by Matteo Manassero and Simon Khan on -11, with Mig, Hennie Otto and David Lynn on -10 and then there's a host of others on -9. My pre-event pick, Oliver Fisher is amongst the eight players on -8 and none of those can be discounted either. It's going to be an entertaining day.
I like Mig and I would have backed him at [9.4]- he's the experienced multiple winner in the mix that might just steer a steady ship to the winning line, while everyone else gets jumpy, but there's enough doubts for me to leave him be for now at his current price of less than [9.0]. I have no idea what his hosting duties included yesterday evening but it's just possible it involved more than the odd glass of Rioja and how will he react to pondering how to hand himself the trophy should victory seem likely?
No doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns in-running and I'll be watching and waiting to see how the final day develops. For the record, the two previous winners at Aloha, Lee Westwood and Thomas Levet were bang there with a round to go so a winner from off the pace may not be as likely as the open looking leaderboard suggests. Westwood entered round four leading by one in 2007 and Levet trailed by one a year later. Incidentally, Westwood had been the third round leader in 2008 too and Oliver Fisher, vanquished by Levet in the playoff, had also started the final round one behind Westwood.
Over in the States, I was really disappointed by the finish to round three by my first in-running wager of the week, Kenny Perry. He appeared to be playing nicely and on -8, two under for the day, he was making serene progress up the leaderboard, and he was matched at a lot less than I'd backed him at. But after making the turn he missed a makeable birdie putt at the tricky 10th before failing to birdie the easy 11th and that signalled the beginning of the end. He three-putted the 12th to make bogey and the wheels fell off after that. It was disappointing because the course is clearly getting tougher and the experienced old heads are coming to the fore - it should have suited an old pro like Perry.
Former winners Retief Goosen and Jim Furyk are now tied at the top on -11, with Sang-Moon Bae and Jason Dufner a shot back in a tie for third. John Mallinger and the veteran Ken Duke are a further shot behind on -9, with Chez Reavie, Ernie Els and Luke Donald on -8.
Given the record of third round leaders, I quite like Furyk here and I've backed him at [4.6]. Over the first 11 years of the event, seven winners have led or been tied for the lead (five led outright). Goosen came from one back in 2009 and Gary Woodland two last year. The inaugural winner, John Huston was four off the lead and in 2008, Sean O'Hair came from three back - thanks largely to a Stewart Cink collapse.
Goosen is nursing an injured back and has an appalling final round record nowadays anyway. My doubts over Dufner were aired yesterday and Bae was all over the shop at times in round three and he might not get away with such sloppiness today. Like Dufner and Bae, Mallinger and Duke are also looking for their first PGA Tour wins and Furyk might just get his own way in front.
It's no coincidence that the top two have won here before and that they're both experienced US Open winners. This place gets tougher as the week goes on and a solid and dependable steady round may well be enough for Jim. If this event was played out three times from here I'd have to fancy him to convert at least once and his odds of [4.6] are more than fair.
I've also had a small wager on Ernie Els at [38.0]. Another veteran US Open winner, Els is desperate to get his head in front in order to qualify for the US Masters. Coming from slightly off the pace here might just aid the Big Easy and if the leaders struggle he could be the one to profit.
I'll be back tomorrow with the De-Brief.
10:35 - March 17, 2012
We've reached the halfway stage of both this week's events, the Open de Andalucía and the Transitions Championship and I have to confess, having been engrossed with the Cheltenham Festival, I've barely seen any of the action so far.
After a torrid week's punting at Prestbury Park I was hoping to get stuck into the golf this morning in an attempt to claw back some losses but having been through the halfway leaderboard in Spain umpteen times I think the County Hurdle was easier!
On a jam-packed leaderboard, Eduardo de la Riva holds sway by a single stroke over a bunch of five, with another eight players all tied for seventh, a further shot back. It's very tight and crammed with quality.
Paul Krishnamurty has done it yet again with his Find Me A 100 Winner column. Tommy Fleetwood, advised at whopping [170.0], is one of those tied for second. Alongside Tommy is first round leader Matteo Manassero, tournament host Miguel Angel Jimenez, Damien McGrane and Pablo Larrazabal. Amongst those two off the lead are fairly recent winners Michael Hoey, Hennie Otto and Robert Rock, as well as a couple of class acts on the comeback trail in Edoardo Molinari and Oliver Wilson. It looks too tough to call at this stage and I'm hanging fire for now.
My main fancy, Alejandro Canizares has been a disappointment. He started the event poorly before recovering well on day one and then yesterday he looked as though he might just tag himself on to the leading bunch but then finished disastrously. James Morrison started well but it didn't last and he ended up missing the cut and Oliver Fisher has fared best so far. He starts round three on -4 - four off the lead.
Over in the States, my sole pick, Jonathan Byrd, has made the cut but only just, so it's a case of back to the drawing board there too.
Jason Dufner has started well again (he led after day one at last week's WGC Cadillac Championship) and on -10, he leads first round leader, Padraig Harrington and William McGirt by two. Luke Donald and last week's Puerto Rico Open champ George McNeil are amongst those on -7 and tied for ninth on -6, there's a quality quartet made up of Sergio Garcia, previous winner Jim Furyk, pre-event fancy John Senden and Champions Tour star Kenny Perry. This one doesn't look any easier than the Open de Andalucía but I have at least found one I felt worth backing.
Dufner is bogey-free so far this week but he just can't be trusted to keep that up. He will win an event sooner or later and he came mighty close last year, losing in playoffs at both the WM Phoenix Open and the PGA Championship but until he does win one, I just don't want to back him. And I suspect when he does break his duck it won't be from the front. McGirt has never been in such a lofty position and can't be fancied, whilst Harrington hasn't won on either of the main tours since he took the 2088 PGA Championship. Yesterday's over-par effort (following a career best course record 61 on Thursday) wasn't exactly encouraging either.
Luke Donald is my idea of the likeliest winner but there's no value in his price of [5.6]. McNeil looks fairly priced at around [28.0] and confidence must be sky high but can he really go back-to-back? I looked at Senden closely before the off but felt given how hard he finds it to win he looked too short and at [24.0] now, he still does but one who looks worth taking a chance on is Kenny Perry.
KP is more than capable of low scoring and he could easily put in a low one today and move right into the mix. This time last month he was breaking the 36-hole scoring record on the Champions Tour (in Florida) at the ACE Group Classic, where he opened up with rounds of 64 and 62 before coasting home by five on the final day. He's always been a streaky player, who can get hot and stay hot and he's a multiple winner who shouldn't be a triple-figure price.
I'll be back either tonight or tomorrow with another look at the state of play. I'm hoping to see an opportunity arise in Spain this afternoon but I'm going to be cautious. After Cheltenham, I need to be!
Transitions Championship Pre-Event Bet
Jonathan Byrd @ [60.0]
In-Running Plays
Kenny Perry @ [100.0]
Jim Furyk @ [4.6]
Ernie Els @ [38.0]
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