Weight-adjusted Timeform ratings suggest three-year-olds could regain their dominance this afternoon with Dear Demi rated marginally ahead of Flying Snitzel and Bennetta in what is a very evenly graded field, making value the key for any punter wanting a wager...
The Group 1 Coolmore Classic for fillies and mares over 1500m at Rosehill has assembled the usual strong line up of the fairer sex, headed in the quality handicap by multiple Group 1-winning mare Streama...
First run in 1973, the Coolmore Classic has been won by some of Australia's finest female gallopers, including the mighty Sunline who won the feature twice (2000/2002), Typhoon Tracy, Alverta, Bounding Away and Emancipation.
The race was once considered the domain for three-year-old fillies, but in the last three years the older mares have had the edge with Ofcourseican (2012), Aloha (2011) and Alverta (2010) scoring, Typhoon Tracy the last three-year-old to win in 2009 with the youngsters winning five of the previous ten renewals including that win.
Weight-adjusted Timeform ratings suggest three-year-olds could regain their dominance this afternoon with Dear Demi rated marginally ahead of Flying Snitzel and Bennetta in what is a very evenly graded field, making value the key for any punter wanting a wager. Owned by John Singleton, Dear Demi will be aiming to give the popular owner of Strawberry Hill Stud a second win in the race, Singleton having already won the race in 2007 with another three-year-old Tuesday Joy ridden by Darren Beadman.
In fact there are similarities between the two fillies coming into the Coolmore. Tuesday Joy had won the Wakeful Stakes and was runner up in the VRC Oaks in Melbourne during the spring and was second in the Surround Stakes prior to her storming win the Coolmore. On the other hand, Dear Demi was unlucky in the Wakeful Stakes before winning the VRC Oaks as well as the Surround Stakes last start. Both rated similarly with Timeform on 118.
Singleton also owned Gentle Genius who started at 200-1 when narrowly beaten in a close finish by Sunline in her second Coolmore win in 2002. As for Dear Demi this afternoon, I believe she can improve further as she currently sits around four pounds below her peak rating and could not have been more impressive last start winning the Surround Stakes from Driefontein, showing a great turn of foot in the closing stages after settling second last early.
So quickly did she arrive at the finish that race rider Jim Cassidy half eased her down to win by a neck. That was Cassidy's second win aboard the filly having been atop her in the VRC Oaks. Today he hopes to post a third win in the Coolmore having already been successful on Shamekha (2004) and Flitter (1995). On paper, there should be good speed in the race with three or four go forward types. Cassidy should be able to settle Dear Demi worst than midfield early and produce her when the front runners start gasping for air.
Last start impressive Flemington winner Flying Snitzel, Timeform rated 114, is hard to overlook as a genuine improver. After an even effort when resuming in the Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill, trainer Gerald Ryan sent the filly to Melbourne for the G2 Kewney Stakes at Flemington over 1400m.
Coming off a 21 day break since her first up run she did not disappoint. Ridden far more patiently by Craig Williams than had been the case to that time, Flying Snitzel unleashed a devastating burst of acceleration taking her from 10th place 200m from home to an idling length and a quarter win.
Clearly the gear change of removing the blinkers and putting winkers on combined with a more patient ride led to a new peak performance. Craig Williams stays atop the filly today and a similar ride combined with an additional 100m in distance should see her right in the finish.
The lightly-raced filly Bennetta is deserving of another chance. Up until last start she had carried all before her in three previous runs culminating in an impressive Light Fingers Stakes victory from Ichihara, a form line that now looks substantial after that filly's win in last Saturday's Eskimo Prince Quality under a big weight. However, running as an even money favourite in the Surround last time out Bennetta was never a winning hope getting home meekly after a wide run facing the breeze at Warwick Farm.
It would be wise to overlook that run by Bennetta. She has a Timeform rating of 115 and with crack rider Glen Boss to take over pilot duties combined with a four kilo weight drop she certainly has a winning weight if she can reproduce her best. The fact Glen Boss who shares the mantle with Cassidy as the most successful Coolmore riders in the race is no burden for her either, the three-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey has already won the Coolmore aboard Aloha (2011) and Typhoon Tracy (2009).
The history of the Coolmore is definitely against those horses highly weighted. Apart from Sunline who was a freak, no winner has carried more than 56 kgs to win in the last 20 years. Early favourite Steps In Time, Streama and Red Tracer are all handicapped above 56kgs and more importantly all were unplaced last year carrying less weight than today.
Older mares Appearance and Zurella loom as prospects along with the Gai Waterhouse trained three-year-old Driefontein. All are must includes for multiple players.
Appearance from the Guy Walter stable scored an upset win in the G1 Myer Classic over 1600m at Flemington on Derby day in the spring. She comes into the race today third up from a spell - the same state she was in on Myer Classic day. That is a significant lead for punters, Walter aiming to repeat a winning formula. Both her fresh runs were sound and a return to her peak Timeform rating of 114 keeps her under notice.
New Zealand mare Zurella is an interesting one to assess. Timeform rated 111, she did not train on in the spring when set for a Caulfield Cup campaign. Runner up in the New Zealand Oaks at three, she came to Melbourne at four winning the G2 Let's Elope Stakes over 1400m at Flemington in impressive fashion but then lost form. Here she is second up after an equally eye catching fresh up run in the G1 Waikato Draught Sprint over 1400m, flashing home from near last in the 13 horse field to take third place behind Final Touch.
The biggest problem for her today is the 1500m around Rosehill which may be a shade short in distance. That said she is a quality mare and cannot be dismissed entirely.
Driefontein, Timeform rated 115, is on trial at 1500m but she has been steadily working up to a win, just failing to hold out Dear Demi in the Surround Stakes last time out. With no weight on her back and the ability to race handy, it would come as no surprise to see her in the frame at the finish.
Off Time: 05.10BST
Recommendation:
Back Dear Demi @ 7.50n/a in the Coolmore Classic
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