/ Alex Steedman / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Imperial Commander on his way to winning the 2010 Gold Cup
"Form, sense, age and logic say forget it but if Kauto triumphs expect scenes like never before."
Does Kauto have one last great race in him? Can Denman finish an up and down few years by reclaiming his crown? Can Imperial Commander win consecutive Gold Cups? Alex Steedman assesses the field for the biggest race of the Cheltenham Festival....
In March 2007, the month Kauto Star was sprinting away from a crowded pack to land the first of his two Cheltenham Gold Cups, the BBC released a DVD of luminaries such as Bill Oddie and Lesley Garrett discovering their past during the hit series Who do you think you are? In recent months racing fans have been concerned less with previous and more with the present in regard to this year's Gold Cup contenders. The question of them is; 'Who are you now?"
At 11-years-old both Kauto Star and Denman appear in the dusk of sparkling careers but do the former Champs have one last great fight in them?
Denman's monumental weight-carrying third place in the Hennessy has him solid in the market though not apparently convincing at [7.8]. The 2008 Gold Cup winner has been on one hell of a Bill & Ted in a two year period that has seen him treated for a fibrillating heart, fall at Aintree, unseat the 15 times Champion jockey, undertake breathing surgery again and in between all of that, win a second Hennessy under 11-12 and take silver in the last Gold Cup. Never out of the money at Cheltenham, Denman's form at the festival reads 2/1/1/2/2 which includes a win and two seconds in the big one. Would you lay him for a place at (2.68)?
Kauto Star's [8.6] position in the discussion is a little more delicate. Like mega stars of the past such as Ali or Frank Sinatra, all that he has done before casts a possessive shadow over where he is now. Falling when looking beaten last year and stretching the legs at Down Royal is not the stuff punters are looking for, nor is that unusual third in the King George. But having suffered bleeding and infection around Christmas, Kautoholics among us have the incentive to believe he has one last great performance in him. Remember, it is seven long years since Kauto last failed to finish first, second or third when completing and Ruby is back. Form, sense, age and logic say forget it but remember Ali hurrahed against Spinks and Frank wowed New York one last time; if it happens, expect scenes like never before.
Imperial Commander's position as favourite is assured at [5.4] but his absence has not made punters fond of him. Given the doubts or questions surrounding almost all of his rivals, the truth is he should be shorter in the market. Cut and injured when winning the Betfair Chase in November, the reigning champ was forced to miss the King George but that is the only deviation from last season's schedule. I take that as positive. The Commander won on his point-to-point and 'bumper' debuts and scored reappearance wins in 2007, 08 and 10 while only a nose separated him and Kauto in 09. With five wins from six Cheltenham chase starts, he is made for this place and this race. He is probably close to who he was last year and that ought to be enough.
Of all the main protagonists, Diamond Harry and Long Run have the most upwardly mobile CV's. Diamond Harry [10.5] has to improve around a stone which is easily conceivable and though he disappointed in the RSA, his hurdles form round Cheltenham is strong. He has the profile you look for and hails from a yard with craft yet there is something of the work in progress about him and this may come a year too soon.
Long Run (7.4) has achieved a great deal in double quick time over here yet he is harshly considered by both pundits and punters alike. In five British runs the French gelding has won two Grade 1's and though finishing third in an RSA and a Paddy Power is somehow labelled as not Cheltenham material. My beef was with his jumping technique but that is improving as he acclimatises and I think Long Run is a horse who is simply finding himself, just like Bill Oddie and Lesley Garrett. Remember the Henderson star is still only six-years-old. Stamina is not a given for Liberthine's half-brother but if he stays, Long Run will be a major threat to the favourite.
It may unfold that Long Run or Kauto are the descendants of Cornish field dwellers or that Denman's great, great, great grandfather was a circus clown carrier but I'm inclined to think that most recent Gold Cup history is what matters here. He may be rubbing shoulders with equine Gods of his time but come the day, Imperial Commander can underline why he will be remembered with interest in centuries to come.
Does Kauto have one last great race in him? Can Denman finish an up and down few years by reclaiming his crown? Can Imperial Commander win consecutive Gold Cups? Alex Steedman assesses the field for the biggest race of the Cheltenham Festival.......
Our resident blogger Simon Rowlands points out the shortcomings of some types of conventional trends analysis......
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