Jonathan Wilson 
/ Jonathan Wilson / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment Rubin Kazan are one of a number of Russian teams in action tonight
"If Spartak's young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.0] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous... "
Jonathan Wilson looks at a clutch of Europa League ties which involved refreshed sides from Eastern Europe who could cause a few surprises...
The theory of the winter break runs as follows. The sides whose effective playing seasons run from March to November (that is, most of Scandinavia, Russia and Ukraine, even if they declare their champion in June) tend to struggle in the autumn as fatigue takes its toll and they play sides from elsewhere in Europe who are at the peak of their fitness a couple of months into their season.
Conversely, come the spring, once they have shaken off the rustiness of three months without playing competitive football, they are fresh and enjoy the same advantage over the rest of Europe that the rest of Europe enjoys in the autumn. That is why eastern European teams have tended comparatively to underperform in the group stages of the Champions League, and to overperform once they have reached the knockout phase of the Europa League.
The 2005 champions CSKA Moscow - [16.0] to win the Europa League - became the first side through when they beat PAOK on Tuesday, while Metalist Kharkiv are almost certainly out after their 4-0 first leg defeat to Bayer Leverkusen [16.5]. For other sides from the east, though, tonight's matches are crucial.
Despite losing the first leg against Young Boys 2-1 in Bern, Zenit St Petersburg are strong favourites to make it through tonight. They are [1.35] to win the leg and are [11.5] fourth-favourites for the Europa League itself behind Manchester City [5.8], Porto [7.8] and Liverpool [8.0]. They were highly impressive winners of the Russian League last season, and won all six of their Europa League group matches, but they will be without the forwards Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Aleksandr Bukharov, the winger Vladimir Bystrov and the defenders Tomas Hubocan and Nicolas Lombaerts.
The goalkeeper Vyacheslav Malofeev , though, seems not merely confident, but keen to get playing competitively again after the winter. "We are finally home after some long training camps and have been relaxing with our families and friends, so we are in a good mood," he said. "We have put the loss in Bern behind us. We are ready. We just need to score as many as possible and everything will be fine."
Spartak Moscow also face Swiss opposition, but with an advantage from their first leg in Basel, where they came from 2-0 down to win with a late striker from the brilliant Georgian teenager Jano Ananidze.
Spartak are [1.97] to win the game, with a draw [3.7]. Spartak have lost five of their last seven home games in Europe, but they feel an understandable frustration at their failure to progress from the Champions League group having begun so well, and if their young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous, even with a view to trading out in the last four.
The other Russian side in the competition, Rubin Kazan, are surely out after a limp 2-0 home defeat to Twente in the first leg. They are [12.0] to go through, but there was little sign of them having the sort of firepower that would bring them the goals they need to mount a comeback. Alejandro Dominguez and Bukharov both left last year, and neither has really been replaced.
Dynamo Kyiv beat Besiktas 4-1 in Istanbul, and will surely complete the job at home as they readjust to life under Yury Semin. BATE Borisov have a chance of progression [6.0] after a 2-2 draw against PSG in Belarus, but it would require them to end the French side's 13-game unbeaten run in European competition, or to secure a high-scoring draw.
If they are to eliminate Liverpool, Sparta Prague's task - either a scoring draw or a win at Anfield - is only slightly less formidable, and they are [4.1] to progress after a 0-0 draw in the first leg. Lech Poznan's unlikely success story, though, goes on. They may only be two points above the relegation zone in the Polish league, but having beaten Manchester City and eliminated Juventus in the group stage, they take a 1-0 lead to Braga and are [1.75] to go through.
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