Jonathan Wilson: Why Eto'o's Anzhi might have to wait for Europa glory

This evening, Anzhi face another Dutch side, AZ Alkmaar (they are 1.9420/21 to win; AZ 4.57/2). Given how impressively AZ have begun the season – with a draw at Ajax and then a 3-1 home win over Heracles, that may be a little long on them, and seems to assume the long trip will unsettled them. Laying Anzhi at 1.910/11 may be the call.

In recent years, Russian teams have thrived in the Europa League. All eyes are on are Anzhi Makhachkala this season but Jonathan Wilson reckons Guus Hiddink's big spenders might be thwarted this time...

One of the issues with the Europa League is that nobody is quite sure how seriously to take it. Once upon the time, the UEFA Cup was probably harder to win than the European Cup, featuring - as it did - all the best teams in Europe who hadn't won either the league or the cup. That created an odd situation in which the continent's premier competition was actually lesser than a supposedly secondary competition and so, while the present situation, in which the Champions League has primacy, is clearly more logical, it also seems to have provoked a nostalgia-driven revulsion for the new tournament.

The modern Europa League may not be of the same quality as the old UEFA Cup and, as Brian Phillips pointed out in The Blizzard Issue Four, it suffers from people not quite being able to define what it is: "The Second-Tier Distribution of Teams as Apportioned by Mathematical Coefficients Cup" just doesn't sound right. That is what it is, though, and you can't help but think everybody would be a lot happier if they could just accept it on those terms. It's not a competition for the likes of Real Madrid and Manchester United: rather it's for the big teams from slight smaller nations (in a football sense) - the giants of Portugal, Ukraine and Russia, for instance - and the smaller teams from the big nations - the likes of Atletico Madrid, Athletic Bilbao and Fulham.

In Russia and Ukraine, the successes of CSKA Moscow in 2005, Zenit St Petersburg in 2008 and Shakhtar Donetsk in 2009 were seen as major breakthroughs, evidence they could compete again against sides from the west. They helped dispel an inferiority complex that was always a slightly odd feature of Soviet football and that had intensified as state funding ran out following the break-up of the USSR in 1991.

The UEFA Cup was seen as giving a club validity and it's for that same reason that Anzhi Makhachkala will be taking the Europa League seriously. The club was founded in 1991 and, although it progressed from Dagestani local leagues to the Russian Premier League in only a decade, it is only since the billionaire Suleiman Kerimov took over in 2011 that it has become a major player. The signings of Roberto Carlos and Samuel Eto'o and the appointment of Guus Hiddink as coach have won headlines but the issue now is to convert investment into achievement on the pitch.

Anzhi finished a disappointing fifth last season. Domestically they have begun this season with a stutter, a draw at Rostov and a defeat at CSKA leaving them fifth after five games, despite becoming the first side to take points off the champions Zenit with a 1-1 home daw at the weekend. In Europe, they have been a little more impressive, beating Honved 5-0 on aggregate in the second qualifying round of the Europa league before securing their place in the play-off round with 2-0 wins in both legs against Vitesse Arnhem.

This evening, Anzhi face another Dutch side, AZ Alkmaar (they are 1.9420/21 to win; AZ 4.57/2). Given how impressively AZ have begun the season - with a draw at Ajax and then a 3-1 home win over Heracles, that may be a little long on them, and seems to assume the long trip will unsettled them. Laying Anzhi at 1.910/11 may be the call.

Jozy Altidore has been in superb form, scoring four of AZ's five goals in those two matches. He presents the sort of mobile, muscular threat not often found in Russian football and to which, strangely, Hiddink teams have often been susceptible (think of Alan Shearer's performance against Holland at Euro 96, or Emile Heskey's against Russia at home in qualifying for Euro 2008). Christopher Samba, of course, is as well-equipped as any centre-back to deal with a physical threat but if AZ can isolate Altidore against Joao Carlos, Anzhi may struggle. The other option is to sit Georgy Gaboulov and Jucilei very deep in midfield to pick up knockdowns, but that would seem to hand the initiative to AZ.

Anzhi are a coming side, and will take the Europa League seriously, but given how difficult their play-off round is 30 looks far too short. AZ at 46.045/1, in fact, probably offer better value.

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Jonathan Wilson: Crucial night for teams from the East

Jonathan Wilson / Jonathan Wilson / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rubin Kazan are one of a number of Russian teams in action tonight

"If Spartak's young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.0] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous... "

Jonathan Wilson looks at a clutch of Europa League ties which involved refreshed sides from Eastern Europe who could cause a few surprises...

The theory of the winter break runs as follows. The sides whose effective playing seasons run from March to November (that is, most of Scandinavia, Russia and Ukraine, even if they declare their champion in June) tend to struggle in the autumn as fatigue takes its toll and they play sides from elsewhere in Europe who are at the peak of their fitness a couple of months into their season.

Conversely, come the spring, once they have shaken off the rustiness of three months without playing competitive football, they are fresh and enjoy the same advantage over the rest of Europe that the rest of Europe enjoys in the autumn. That is why eastern European teams have tended comparatively to underperform in the group stages of the Champions League, and to overperform once they have reached the knockout phase of the Europa League.

The 2005 champions CSKA Moscow - [16.0] to win the Europa League - became the first side through when they beat PAOK on Tuesday, while Metalist Kharkiv are almost certainly out after their 4-0 first leg defeat to Bayer Leverkusen [16.5]. For other sides from the east, though, tonight's matches are crucial.

Despite losing the first leg against Young Boys 2-1 in Bern, Zenit St Petersburg are strong favourites to make it through tonight. They are [1.35] to win the leg and are [11.5] fourth-favourites for the Europa League itself behind Manchester City [5.8], Porto [7.8] and Liverpool [8.0]. They were highly impressive winners of the Russian League last season, and won all six of their Europa League group matches, but they will be without the forwards Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Aleksandr Bukharov, the winger Vladimir Bystrov and the defenders Tomas Hubocan and Nicolas Lombaerts.

The goalkeeper Vyacheslav Malofeev , though, seems not merely confident, but keen to get playing competitively again after the winter. "We are finally home after some long training camps and have been relaxing with our families and friends, so we are in a good mood," he said. "We have put the loss in Bern behind us. We are ready. We just need to score as many as possible and everything will be fine."

Spartak Moscow also face Swiss opposition, but with an advantage from their first leg in Basel, where they came from 2-0 down to win with a late striker from the brilliant Georgian teenager Jano Ananidze.

Spartak are [1.97] to win the game, with a draw [3.7]. Spartak have lost five of their last seven home games in Europe, but they feel an understandable frustration at their failure to progress from the Champions League group having begun so well, and if their young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous, even with a view to trading out in the last four.

The other Russian side in the competition, Rubin Kazan, are surely out after a limp 2-0 home defeat to Twente in the first leg. They are [12.0] to go through, but there was little sign of them having the sort of firepower that would bring them the goals they need to mount a comeback. Alejandro Dominguez and Bukharov both left last year, and neither has really been replaced.

Dynamo Kyiv beat Besiktas 4-1 in Istanbul, and will surely complete the job at home as they readjust to life under Yury Semin. BATE Borisov have a chance of progression [6.0] after a 2-2 draw against PSG in Belarus, but it would require them to end the French side's 13-game unbeaten run in European competition, or to secure a high-scoring draw.

If they are to eliminate Liverpool, Sparta Prague's task - either a scoring draw or a win at Anfield - is only slightly less formidable, and they are [4.1] to progress after a 0-0 draw in the first leg. Lech Poznan's unlikely success story, though, goes on. They may only be two points above the relegation zone in the Polish league, but having beaten Manchester City and eliminated Juventus in the group stage, they take a 1-0 lead to Braga and are [1.75] to go through.

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