Showing posts with label teams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label teams. Show all posts
December 24, 2013
March 6, 2013
The Big Wednesday Multiple: British teams in an 8/1 shot
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Bristol Rovers v Exeter @ 1.85 (17/20);
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Notts County v Leyton Orient @ 1.65 (13/20);
The Multiple pays approximately 9.2 (8/1)"
It's Wednesday, so that means it's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:
Bet 1: Juventus (HOME) @ 1.4 (2/5) - Live on Sky Sports Two at 19:45
We start in Turin as Juventus should record a relatively straightforward win over Celtic.
The Old Lady won 3-0 at Celtic Park and while the scoreline probably flattered them, their extra class and streetwise players proved the difference. Obviously they don't need to win tonight to progress, but it's almost unfathomable that they'll fail to do so given their continued strong form in front of their own fans.
Antonio Conte will also want to take some momentum through to their Serie A clash with Catania at the weekend as they are only six points clear of Napoli in the league, so any slip up could prove costly.
Celtic have exceeded expectations in this competition this year, with the undoubted highlight being the victory over Barcelona in Glasgow. Neil Lennon's side have performed with real credit but this will be more of a respectability mission.
Their odds are short at 1.4 (2/5) but that still looks like value to me and it should give us a comfortable home victory.
Bet 2: St Mirren (AWAY) @ 2.2 (6/5)
Our away leg comes from Scotland as St Mirren travel to rock bottom Dundee in the Clydesdale Bank Premier Division. The Saints aren't doing much better themselves but they've already won at this ground this season and their odds are just too big to refuse.
Dundee have found it tough going back in the top flight and John Brown's men have only managed to amass 15 points from a possible 84. They haven't won a league game since November - a run of 14 matches - and their draw last time out was their first point since January.
Their stats don't read much better at Dens Park as of the 13 fixtures they've played there this term, nine have ended in defeat, including a 2-0 loss against tonight's opponents back in August.
St Mirren may well be second from bottom but they are 17 points clear of Dundee and only seven points adrift of the top half with a game in hand. Victory this evening would see them move up to 10th and still give them an outside shot of qualifying for the Championship Round.
Danny Lennon's team put successive defeats behind them by beating Hearts 2-0 in their last league outing and while they may have won just twice away from Paisley this season, they have an excellent shot of gaining a third in this one.
Bet 3: Bristol Rovers v Exeter (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.85 (17/20)
Our hunt for goals takes us to England's League Two as Bristol Rovers take on the in-form Exeter City.
Rovers are 15th in the table but they're still not quite safe from relegation as they only have a six point cushion over Plymouth and Wimbledon. Conceding too many goals has been their main problem as with 56 in the against column, only two teams have a worse defensive record.
John Ward's side did manage to keep a clean sheet last time out at home to Burton, but even then they scored three goals themselves so the game went over the required 2.5 goals. In fact, nine of their last dozen at the Memorial Stadium have had three or more, and their matches this year are averaging 2.89 goals each time.
Exeter were relegated from League One but they're making a decent push to go straight back up. Paul Tisdale has his team in the final play-off place, seven points clear of Southend in eighth, while only three points adrift of Cheltenham in third, with two games in hand.
The Grecians have won four of their last five, scoring 12 goals in the process, while five of their last eight on the road have gone over 2.5. This season's average is similar to their opponents, currently standing at 2.83, so the statistics would point to plenty of goals going in tonight.
Bet 4: Notts County v Leyton Orient (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.65 (13/20)
We finish in England's League One as Notts County and Leyton Orient do battle in what I hope will be somewhat of a dour encounter.
County are in 10th place but if they win their game in hand tonight then they will move to within five points of Tranmere in sixth and keep their slim promotion hopes alive. Winning has been a bit of an issue for them though this term as while they've only lost nine, they've drawn a few too many matches.
As far as the goals go, their matches are averaging 2.49 per 90 minutes, with 20 of their 35 going under 2.5, and four of their last five at Meadow Lane suffering the same fate.
Leyton Orient are only two points behind their opponents but even a victory tonight would probably still leave them a bit too far back to make the play-offs. Russell Slade's men broke a four match winless streak last time out by despatching Bournemouth 3-1, but four goals in one game is a rarity with The O's as their matches are only averaging 2.29 goals each time, with 21 of their 35 having two or less.
Recommended Multiple
Back Juventus @ 1.4 (2/5); Back St Mirren @ 2.2 (6/5); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Bristol Rovers v Exeter @ 1.85 (17/20); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Notts County v Leyton Orient @ 1.65 (13/20); The Multiple pays approximately 9.2 (8/1)
Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
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April 30, 2011
Serie A Betting: Don't underestimate teams with little to play for
Italian Football 
/ Dave Farrar / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Palermo boss Delio Rossi
"Parma may have improved lately, but they’re still not as good a side as Palermo, and I’ll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price."
In years gone by a club that needed to win against a club that had nothing to play for meant just one outcome, but perhaps not anymore says Dave Farrar.
Parma v Palermo
A few weeks ago, Parma's fans were getting used to the fact that they'd be supporting a Serie B side again next season, but in the last two weeks the team has dredged up a couple of remarkable performances to beat both Inter at home and then Udinese away, and now Parma find themselves three points above the drop zone with others fading fast. The job isn't done yet, though, and another resurgent team in the shape of Palermo will provide stern opposition on Sunday.
Parma are [2.02] to win, and it's easy to see why that price is as short as it is; the home team have it all to play for, the away team are safely in the top 10, and so, as the Serie A way goes, Parma will be gifted the win. We'd do well to remember that, at the start of the month, Parma welcomed a Bari team here which had pretty much already been relegated. It was a marriage of convenience if ever there was one but Bari won 2-1 and the cynics had discovered that the ground had moved beneath them. And trust me, if this match is to be a fix in favour of the home team, then Parma would be [1.3] to win, not [2.02].
Parma may have improved lately, but they're still not as good a side as Palermo, and I'll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price. Despite their relatively static position in the table, Palermo's players have good reason to be motivated. The club's maverick President, Maurizio Zamparini, has said that Delio Rossi will be in a job next season, but given the respect that the players have for Rossi, and the trigger happy nature of Zamparini's stewardship so far, they'll want to make sure that they finish as high up the table as possible and give Zamparini no cause whatsoever to sack Rossi for a second time in the calendar year.
I'm tempted by the [4.6] about a Palermo win, and those of you who like to split your stakes and lay one team while backing the other should take advantage of that price. I'm not getting greedy though, and will lay a Parma team for whom a draw wouldn't be a disaster.
Recommendation: Lay Parma against Palermo @ [2.02]
Fiorentina v Udinese
Another team with absolutely everything to gain from a victory, Udinese, travel to Florence, and the men from the Friuli are being priced up far shorter than an away side would normally be for a trip like this. The reason for that, of course, is once again the perception that Fiorentina aren't at all bothered about winning, while Udinese are desperate to. That's why we're able to back Fiorentina at [2.6] and that's well worth doing.
Udinese will very possibly have to do without their three best players on Sunday; Gokhan Inler is definitely out through suspension, Alexis Sanchez has probably played his last game for the club after picking up a muscle injury, and Antonio Di Natale is struggling after reporting that he's feeling unwell.
While the excellent Udinese coach Francesco Guidolin must try and make the best of the players that he has available, it's somehow hard to see the Fiorentina coach Sinisa Mihaijlovic sending out a team and allowing them to play at anything other than their best. There are players with points to prove, most notably Adrian Mutu, and with Riccardo Montolivo and Valon Behrami rejoined by Juan Vargas in a powerful looking midfield, there's every reason to suspect that Fiorentina's front three could have a fun afternoon.
La Viola won this fixture 4-1 last season, and while I can't see that kind of scoreline, the home side should certainly be backed at a price which is based on motivation, rather than reality.
Recommendation: Back Fiorentina to beat Udinese @ [2.6]
Dave Farrar believes both his featured games will provide plenty of goals this weekend, but perhaps the best bet could be for Lazio to grab a famous victory at Inter....
After this weekend's action we're closer to knowing who will be winning the major European leagues and that includes Serie A, after Napoli lost at home to Udinese. It's now AC Milan's to lose, says Ben Lyttleton....
Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......
February 23, 2011
Jonathan Wilson: Crucial night for teams from the East
Jonathan Wilson / Jonathan Wilson / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment Rubin Kazan are one of a number of Russian teams in action tonight
"If Spartak's young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.0] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous... "
Jonathan Wilson looks at a clutch of Europa League ties which involved refreshed sides from Eastern Europe who could cause a few surprises...
The theory of the winter break runs as follows. The sides whose effective playing seasons run from March to November (that is, most of Scandinavia, Russia and Ukraine, even if they declare their champion in June) tend to struggle in the autumn as fatigue takes its toll and they play sides from elsewhere in Europe who are at the peak of their fitness a couple of months into their season.
Conversely, come the spring, once they have shaken off the rustiness of three months without playing competitive football, they are fresh and enjoy the same advantage over the rest of Europe that the rest of Europe enjoys in the autumn. That is why eastern European teams have tended comparatively to underperform in the group stages of the Champions League, and to overperform once they have reached the knockout phase of the Europa League.
The 2005 champions CSKA Moscow - [16.0] to win the Europa League - became the first side through when they beat PAOK on Tuesday, while Metalist Kharkiv are almost certainly out after their 4-0 first leg defeat to Bayer Leverkusen [16.5]. For other sides from the east, though, tonight's matches are crucial.
Despite losing the first leg against Young Boys 2-1 in Bern, Zenit St Petersburg are strong favourites to make it through tonight. They are [1.35] to win the leg and are [11.5] fourth-favourites for the Europa League itself behind Manchester City [5.8], Porto [7.8] and Liverpool [8.0]. They were highly impressive winners of the Russian League last season, and won all six of their Europa League group matches, but they will be without the forwards Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Aleksandr Bukharov, the winger Vladimir Bystrov and the defenders Tomas Hubocan and Nicolas Lombaerts.
The goalkeeper Vyacheslav Malofeev , though, seems not merely confident, but keen to get playing competitively again after the winter. "We are finally home after some long training camps and have been relaxing with our families and friends, so we are in a good mood," he said. "We have put the loss in Bern behind us. We are ready. We just need to score as many as possible and everything will be fine."
Spartak Moscow also face Swiss opposition, but with an advantage from their first leg in Basel, where they came from 2-0 down to win with a late striker from the brilliant Georgian teenager Jano Ananidze.
Spartak are [1.97] to win the game, with a draw [3.7]. Spartak have lost five of their last seven home games in Europe, but they feel an understandable frustration at their failure to progress from the Champions League group having begun so well, and if their young side clicks into some kind of consistency, the [48.] on offer for them to win the tournament looks extremely generous, even with a view to trading out in the last four.
The other Russian side in the competition, Rubin Kazan, are surely out after a limp 2-0 home defeat to Twente in the first leg. They are [12.0] to go through, but there was little sign of them having the sort of firepower that would bring them the goals they need to mount a comeback. Alejandro Dominguez and Bukharov both left last year, and neither has really been replaced.
Dynamo Kyiv beat Besiktas 4-1 in Istanbul, and will surely complete the job at home as they readjust to life under Yury Semin. BATE Borisov have a chance of progression [6.0] after a 2-2 draw against PSG in Belarus, but it would require them to end the French side's 13-game unbeaten run in European competition, or to secure a high-scoring draw.
If they are to eliminate Liverpool, Sparta Prague's task - either a scoring draw or a win at Anfield - is only slightly less formidable, and they are [4.1] to progress after a 0-0 draw in the first leg. Lech Poznan's unlikely success story, though, goes on. They may only be two points above the relegation zone in the Polish league, but having beaten Manchester City and eliminated Juventus in the group stage, they take a 1-0 lead to Braga and are [1.75] to go through.
Jonathan Wilson looks at a clutch of Europa League ties which involved refreshed sides from Eastern Europe who could cause a few surprises......
The best team in Argentina for the last few years, Estudiantes have lost their coach and a number of key players. Jonathan Wilson wonders if their period of dominance is over and you can watch them kick off their campaign...
Asian Cup quarter-finalists Japan - who play Qatar on Friday afternoon - are 'pass masters' but they need something else if they will ever be better than merely 'solid', says Jonathan Wilson...
January 28, 2011
Michael Vaughan: India and Pakistan the teams to beat
ODI preview / Michael Vaughan / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Virender Sehwag is arguably the most destructive batsman in world cricket
"India are the clear 4.4 favourites and that’s for a reason. I was going to try and identify who I thought their best players were but before I knew it I’d found myself jotting down seven or eight names; they’re that good and their side has that many match winners."
The former England skipper tells us why his money is on India and Pakistan to win the upcoming World Cup.
There's the small matter of the World Cup coming up so we have to think about who we're going to be siding with before the first ball is bowled.
I'll start by saying that I'm almost sure one of the sides from the sub-continent will win it. I'm going to rule out Bangladesh because though they're constantly improving, they're not quite there just yet and I think they lack the power hitters who can score very quickly when they need to. That said, there will be some decent prices about them qualifying for the next stage and as one of the host teams, they've got a great chance of doing that.
Sri Lanka have been one of the class acts of ODI cricket for the last fifteen years but this current crop of players isn't quite as good as some of the other sides they've had in the past. The likes of Mahela Jayawardene, Kumar Sangakkara, Tillakaratne Dilshan and Lasith Malinga are wonderful players but maybe the team is just a little too reliant on them. They'll have a decent tournament in their favourite conditions but I don't think they'll go all the way.
India are the clear [4.4] favourites and that's for a reason. I was going to try and identify who I thought their best players were but before I knew it I'd found myself jotting down seven or eight names; they're that good and their side has that many match winners. If I were to pick just one though it would be that man Virender Sehwag. People talk about him as one of the great entertainers but that only tells half the story. Those big sixes at the top of the order are great to watch but dispatching the opening bowlers to every part of the ground also puts the opposition under huge pressure from very early on. He scores plenty of runs and he scores them very quickly and is probably the player in world cricket who is most capable of winning a match on his own.
One thing that will be very important in this tournament is contributions from the bowlers with the bat. These days in ODI cricket it's not enough to just be able to bowl, unless your name is Muttiah Muralitharan maybe. And that's another area where India excel. Harbajhan Singh has become an incredibly destructive batsman over the last couple of years and Zaheer Khan can clear the fence as well. These two will come in at eight and nine so that gives you an idea of just how deep they bat. They're definitely the team to beat.
Then there's Pakistan. They may be missing three crucial players for the reasons we all know but even without them there's so much talent in this team you just can't write them off. They're yet to announce their captain for the tournament (they're typically the only side not to have done so yet) but I think they'll go with Misbah Ul-Haq who impressed in the recent Test Series out in New Zealand, the first time he's been in charge. The return of Younis Khan after almost a year in the international wilderness is of huge importance and never rule out Shoaib Akhtar either. He's not as young, quick or fit as he once was but he's still a formidable opponent. As for Shahid Afridi, well we'll just have to wait to see which Afridi turns up next month but we all know what he's capable of. At the much bigger price of [13.5] they're certainly worth a bet too.
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