Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts

November 1, 2014

BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Raonic's superb tie break form to continue against Berdych

"Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today."

Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

It's semi final Saturday at the BNP Paribas Masters and after landing a big-priced winner yesterday, Sean Calvert is back with his selections for today...

It was a profitable day of tennis betting on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters nice and early when Kevin Anderson won the opener of his match against Tomas Berdych.

My 3.7511/4 chance landed when Anderson won set one on the tie break and that proved to be the right wager to side with the South African in, as he rather predictably went on to lose from a break up in the decider.

That meant that Berdych qualified for the World Tour Finals and also qualified on the day were Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who surprisingly defeated Roger Federer in straight sets.

We start at 1.30pm UK time on Saturday, with an intriguing fourth career meeting between Berdych and Raonic.

This pair met here last year in the third round, when Berdych was a 7-6, 6-4 winner, but Raonic was a winner in the two before that and is a 1.845/6 favourite today.

Both players should be a fair bit more relaxed today having qualified for the O2 and as the odds suggest it's a tight one to call, with the winner likely to be the one who serves the better.

Raonic was very good yesterday against Federer in arguably the performance of his career, hitting 21 aces and winning 65 percent of points on his second serve - stats that will surely see him win today if he manages to repeat them.

Berdych has been scratchy all week, doing just enough each round to get through and not impressing in any of them, so I'm leaning towards the Canadian in this one.

The Czech may well show better form with the pressure of O2 qualification behind him though and it could pay to go with a tie break opening set here at a bigger price.

Raonic is much more likely to win it if it does reach a breaker, with Berdych weighing in with a really poor 9-16 (36%) win mark in tie breaks this year and he's lost the two he's played in Bercy this week.

Milos has been very good in breakers this week, winning all three and holding a 39-12 (76%) win mark in them in 2014.

Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today.

The 6.5n/a that's available about a 7-6 set one win for Raonic looks the one here, or the 1.845/6 about the Canadian winning for more circumspect punters is the other option.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a


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Eredivisie Betting: Clean sheet to aid Feyenoord ascent

"Feyenoord have claimed four successive Eredivisie victories, keeping three clean sheets and only being breached from the penalty spot on the other occasion."
Recommended Bet: Back Feyenoord to win to nil against Zwolle @ 2.6213/8

With three big favourites in the Eredivisie TV games, Michael Lintorn looks to other markets for the best bets...

Ajax v Dordrecht
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Match Odds: Ajax 1.162/13, Dordrecht 22.021/1, The Draw 9.417/2

After a promising beginning, it is looking increasingly likely that Dordrecht's Eredivisie stay following their surprise promotion last term won't be especially long. Since winning 2-1 at Heerenveen on the opening weekend, they have gone nine games without success, losing the most recent four.

Ajax meanwhile have recovered from their standard sloppy start to emerge as the joint-best team in the division over their past six matches alongside Vitesse courtesy of four wins and two draws.

Frank de Boer's claimants of the last four titles haven't been dominant though, scoring two goals or fewer in three of their last four home league fixtures, while five of their previous seven at any venue had under 3.5 goals. The same has been true of four of Dordrecht's five top-flight road trips to date.

Recommended Bet: Back under 3.5 goals @ 2.166/5


Feyenoord v Zwolle
Saturday, 18:45
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Match Odds: Feyenoord 1.412/5, Zwolle 9.617/2, The Draw 5.39/2

Fred Rutten's routine in his three years as PSV coach and one campaign with Vitesse was to start sprightly and burn out, but he has adopted a different trajectory at Feyenoord, who were adapting to the loss of key figures like Ronald Koeman, Stefan de Vrij, Daryl Janmaat and Graziano Pelle.

Last season's runners-up were fourth-bottom after six games with just five points before improving to claim four successive Eredivisie victories. They have been very strong defensively in that time, keeping three clean sheets and only being breached from the penalty spot on the other occasion.

Zwolle, having loaded their trophy cabinet by beating Ajax to the Dutch (KNVB) Cup in April then the Johan Cruyff Shield in August, are currently winless in three league outings and often find it difficult to score in their trickiest away encounters.

They have been shut out at AZ Alkmaar and Ajax in 2014/15 following blanks when visiting four of the top seven in 2013/14, and failed to fire on either of their latest two ventures to De Kuip.

Recommended Bet: Back Feyenoord to win to nil @ 2.6213/8


PSV v ADO Den Haag
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Match Odds: PSV 1.251/4, ADO Den Haag 13.012/1, The Draw 7.06/1

PSV have been here so many times before. Despite last lifting the title in 2008, this is the fourth time in six seasons that they will spend part of November top of the table. Phillip Cocu's men are four points clear of Ajax in second and seven ahead of Feyenoord in third at the ten-match checkpoint.

There is no reason why the roadblock that history suggests will almost inevitably surface will reveal itself this weekend though, as the leaders have comfortably won all five Eredivisie home games and ten out of 11 in all competitions, with the sole blemish a Europa League draw against Panathinaikos.

They have netted three times or more in four of the five league clashes and should be able to maintain their formidable strike rate against ADO Den Haag, who have leaked three or more in three of their past seven Eredivisie fixtures, including two of the last four.

Recommended Bet: Back PSV to score three goals or more @ 1.824/5


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August 30, 2014

US Open Women's Betting: Azarenka to storm past Vesnina

"The Belarusian is undoubtedly still working her way back to top form and fitness, but her winning pedigree hasn’t left her and she is showing signs of getting back to somewhere near her best."

The third round concludes on Saturday but with more top seeds crashing out of the tournament, Abelson Info take a closer look at the remaining pack...

Friday produced its fair share of upsets with Simona Halep, Angelique Kerber and Venus Williams all losing much earlier than expected.

Add that to the top seeds that we have already lost and suddenly the field is becoming a little more interesting, with a realistic prospect of seeing a surprise package emerge in the quarter-finals.

Nevertheless, world number one Serena Williams will be in no mood to join those big names on their way home, as she looks ahead to her next test against Varvara Lepchenko.

The top seed has coasted through her opening two matches, dropping just one game last time out against Vania King, and she now faces another fellow American en route to defending her crown.

The two-time defending champion is a huge favourite to emerge from her quarter of the draw, and with her only real test expected in the semi-finals, she will be hoping to continue to do a professional job against inferior opposition.

She has won both her previous meetings with Lepchenko with minimal fuss, and we envisage this encounter going the same way so the games market is worth investigation.

Elsewhere, Victoria Azarenka continues on her comeback trail as after struggling in the opening round, she produced a solid performance to overcome Christina McHale.

The Belarusian is undoubtedly still working her way back to top form and fitness, but her winning pedigree hasn't left her and she is showing signs of getting back to somewhere near her best.

Having made the final in New York last year, she will be desperate to produce a repeat performance, but while it will get tougher soon enough, she will be confident of her chances against Elena Vesnina.

Azarenka has won all five of their previous meetings, the last two at Grand Slams last year, and perhaps the most telling statistic of all is that all five victories have come in straight sets.

This isn't a vintage version of Azarenka, but she clearly has the beating of her rival and as she continues to display signs of improvement, back her to get the job done.

Meanwhile, we expect Flavia Pennetta to also come through in straight sets against American youngster Nicole Gibbs, particularly as the latter has already come through back-to-back gruelling three-set matches.

The Italian will be the fresher of the two and she can use her experience to get the better of her opponent which will result in a favourable looking fourth round clash against either Casey Dellacqua or Karolina Pliskova.

Following Pennetta into the fourth round will be Eugenie Bouchard, as the Canadian ace continues to show an ability to produce her best at the majors.

Despite struggling in the build up to this tournament, the world number eight is back doing what she does best, winning matches.


Recommended Bets:
Back Under 16.5 Games in Williams-Lepchenko @ 1.9520/21
Back Azarenka to beat Vesnina 2-0 @ 1.75/7
Back Bouchard to beat Strycova 2-0 @ 2.186/5


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August 26, 2014

Financial betting: What's going to move the markets this week?

"There will be plenty of interesting activity on the financial markets linked to all sorts of industries over the coming days."

A short week thanks to the bank holiday weekend but a busy one nonetheless, with plenty of trading statements and reports on the way...

This week's company reports

Plenty of trading statements are scheduled for publication over the next few days, so spread bettors with a Tradefair Plus account should keep an eye out to see how they will affect how their bets pan out.

On Tuesday, Antofagasta Holdings, Bunzl, Regus and WPP publish their Q2 results, while statements from Stagecoach and Petrofac are also lined up.

Wednesday sees the release of second quarter statements from Cape and Kenmare Resources, while interim results will come from John Laing Infrastructure Fund and Talvivaara Mining Company.

In addition, half-year results from 888 Holdings and annual results from Air New Zealand will also be published. Other names issuing trading statements tomorrow include Cambian, APR Energy, Chime Communications, Evraz, Grafton, Foxtons, Polymetal International and Hansteen.

Thursday is a particularly busy day, with the likes of Melrose Industries, Arrow Global, Gulf Marine Services, IP Group, Hays, Marshalls and Lamprell lifting the lid on their recent performances.

Trading statements from Nostrum Oil & Gas, Paddy Power, Playtech, Petropavlovsk, Salamander Energy, SOCO International, STV Group, Servelec, UNITE and Xaar also lined up for publication.

Finally, Friday will see releases from Chesnara, Berendsen, Bwin.party, Headlam, Computacenter, Lavendon, Stobart and The Restaurant Group.

So it looks as if there will be plenty of interesting activity on the financial markets linked to all sorts of industries over the coming days.

Housing market data to be issued

A few upcoming reports should help us get a good idea of what conditions in the housing market are like now - which might offer an insight into how well the wider economy is doing at the moment.

On Wednesday, the Council of Mortgage Lenders releases its Regional Lending Trends report for London, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which contains figures for the second quarter of 2014.

Meanwhile, the Land Registry publishes its market trend data for July 2014 and its monthly house price index.

Wednesday also sees the release of the Nationwide Building Society's latest house price figures for August 2014.

Of course, the summer is traditionally a quiet time for the housing market, so the figures might not necessarily be entirely reflective of conditions in the market and the prevailing mood among consumers right now.

Nevertheless, they could still offer some valuable pointers as to which way the sector is likely to go as we move into autumn.

Other reports set for release

A number of other reports that are scheduled for publication this week could be useful for spread bettors who are monitoring conditions in certain industries, as well as the wider economy.

For example, the CBI will release its Quarterly Distributive Trades Survey on Thursday. On the same day, BEA publishes its second quarter estimates of gross domestic product, while the European Central Bank will issue its national balance sheet of euro area monetary financial institutions, excluding the eurosystem, for July 2014.

The week rounds off with the Office for National Statistics publishing its provisional results for business investment in the second quarter of the year, as well as an economic briefing report from the British Retail Consortium.

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US Open 2014 Men's Betting: Back Karlovic to defeat Nieminen in battle of the veterans

"Nieminen has a 6-15 record on outdoor hard courts against the big servers in my list of players and he's lost 11 of the last 15 on all surfaces."

Back Karlovic to beat Nieminen at 1.625/8

It was a great start to the fortnight in New York for tennis expert Sean Calvert, who made a substantial profit from his tips on Monday. He's back to pick the best bets in the US Open on Tuesday...

The US Open began in profitable fashion yesterday, as all three of my bets were winners, plus Nick Kyrgios from my 'potential upsets' article.

Novak Djokovic starred for me by winning the opener 6-1 over Diego Schwartzmann at odds of 5.04/1, while Michael Llodra was an odds-against winner and Andreas Seppi also won comfortably.

Llodra and Seppi were drifters in the market too, which made it even better and for my first bet today I have to side with Ivo Karlovic over Jarkko Nieminen.

Amazingly, for two gnarly tour veterans nearing the end of their careers this pair have never met, but the Finn does struggle against big servers and he looks like he hasn't got that much longer left on tour to me.

Nieminen has a 6-15 record on outdoor hard courts against the big servers in my list of players and he's lost 11 of the last 15 on all surfaces.

His serve isn't powerful enough and second serve is weak, which puts him at a disadvantage in tie breaks and tight moments in matches and I think the 1.625/8 about Karlovic is fair enough in hot and quick conditions.

Two at bigger prices that I like today are Andreas Haider-Maurer and Borna Coric against Roberto Bautista Agut and Lukas Rosol respectively.

RBA has been in no sort of form since a very hectic summer and he may be feeling the effects of that at the moment after poor showings in both of his hard court events in North America.

Haider-Maurer sprang a surprise here last year by beating Ernests Gulbis and although he's more at home on clay he can test out RBA and see if there are any weaknesses and injury/fitness concerns there.

Rosol is on a high right now after winning the title in Winston-Salem, despite appearing to not fancy it at all in his first match, but he's never won a match at the US Open so far in his career.

Today he faces a young player I really like in Coric, who can go places and perhaps surprise a few people here with his game.

Rosol is not one to trust by any means and he looks short today to me, with the 3.55n/a about Coric a potentially decent investment on a Cash Out basis.

Elsewhere, Wayne Odesnik takes on Kei Nishikori in the only one of my 'upsets' playing today and much of the value has gone in that one, but Cash Out backers have already made some money, with Odesnik a 4.03/1 shot now from 6.05/1.

Recommended Bets
Back Karlovic to beat Nieminen at 1.625/8
Back Haider Maurer to win a set at 2.26/5

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Coric to beat Rosol at 3.55n/a

Profit based on £10 stake per bet = + £984.60


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March 6, 2014

BNP Paribas Open Men's Betting: Out of form Querrey worth taking on in Indian Wells

"Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately."

Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5

The tennis action in the Californian desert begins in earnest on Thursday, with the start of the men's first round at the BNP Paribas Open and Sean Calvert selects the best bets...

There are 16 first round matches scheduled for today at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, with play beginning at 7pm UK time.

Conditions here always play on the slow side for a hard court due to the gritty, Plexipave surface that fluffs up the balls and leads to the kind of high bounce that Rafa Nadal loves to encounter.

There's no Rafa today, but there are several opportunities for punters on Thursday, starting with a chance to take on the out of form Sam Querrey.

Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately.

He also dropped a set to world number 647 Tigre Hank in Acapulco in his only win since Melbourne and he faces Alex Kuznetsov at around 5am UK time tomorrow, who defeated Querrey in their most recent meeting on a hard court in Dallas a couple of years ago.

Kuznetsov is coming off the back of a good run in Memphis on indoor hard where he beat David Goffin and Mikhail Kukushkin and the +3.5 games on the handicap or lay of Querrey 2-0 look the options here.

At the more palatable time of around 9pm in the UK there's another clash of two American's between Michael Russell and Donald Young and I like the idea of backing the veteran vest-wearer in this one.

Russell has a pretty good record of 7-4 here at Indian Wells and the lack of pace in the courts should suit the more consistent player and Young's flashy style may not the best in these conditions.

The older American has won four of the last five and seven of their 11 match-ups and after a good run in Memphis, where he beat Lleyton Hewitt, Russell has endured tough three set losses to Radek Stepanek and John Isner and this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Finally I like the idea of taking a chance on Dusan Lajovic at a tempting 2.56/4 against the often wildly errant Lukas Rosol when they meet for the first time at around 10.30pm UK time tonight.

The 23-year-old Serbian has broken into the top-100 recently and is on the upgrade, which he proved again in qualifying here with two wins achieved without dropping serve once and Rosol may also find it tough to break him.

Rosol is currently 68th on the list of return games won in 2014 - one ahead of John Isner - so he's unlikely to break often against a man in a good serving groove so the +2.5 games on Lajovic at 1.8 appeals here, as does the outright on the Serb.

As far as shorter-priced favourites are concerned today I like Santiago Giraldo and Lleyton Hewitt as the most reliable-looking two on Thursday.

Recommended Bets
Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5
Back Russell to beat Young at 1.9520/21
Back Lajovic +2.5 games to beat Rosol at 1.8


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The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2013/14: Round 30

"Opta tell us that Southampton are in pretty rotten form overall: they've won just four of their last 17 Premier League games and are likely to lack real motivation now their Premier League status is secure and they have no chance of European qualification."

Luke Moore: Back Crystal Palace to beat Southampton at 3.8514/5

A dramatic weekend saw Dan Thomas lose his lead to Joe Dyer while another win for Mike Norman means the top three in this season's Betting Battle are separated by less than £20. Here are this week's selections...


Joe Dyer
Back an Arsenal clean sheet @ 2.727/4 vs Everton
Saturday, 12:45
Live on ITV

I'll know my fate early on this weekend as it's the Saturday lunchtime kick-off between Arsenal and Everton for me where I'm swayed by the clear trends for a tight match

Everton are doughty opponents for any side but they have come up short on their last three away days, failing to score in each. Those tests came against top Premier League sides (Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea) and they face another on Saturday against Arsenal

For both clubs this game represents a key moment in their seasons - at 23.022/1 to back the Gunners' title hopes look gone, and Everton surely won't finish top four either - so the chance of making it to Wembley will be huge for everyone at the two teams. 

When Everton went to Arsenal earlier this season, we saw two goals in the last 10 minutes with the visitors pegging the home team back with a late Gerard Deulofeu equaliser. I think this will be similarly close with the potential for a single goal to settle matters.

Rather than back under 2.5 goals - a winning bet for me in the last two weeks - I will take a chance on Arsenal keeping the visitors out for the full 90 minutes this time. The backline has kept 12 clean sheets in the league and with Everton proving shot-shy in recent weeks I think 2.727/4 is a fair price for them to record another clean sheet.  

Joe Dyer 2013-14 P/L: + £18.50


Dan Thomas
Back Both Teams To Score in West Brom v Manchester United at 1.9110/11
Saturday, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

The Baggies have been pretty dreadful this season, with just four wins in the entire campaign - the lowest in the league - leaving them one point off relegation (it's only the league high 13 draws that have kept them out of the bottom three).

They haven't picked up three points since beating Newcastle on New Year's Day and questions have already been raised about the tenure of Pepe Mel, who hasn't seen his team win since taking over on January 9.

The one bright spark for Albion has been their performances against the big boys, picking up creditable 1-1 draws against Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton, all after going behind, and I can see them at least getting on the scoresheet when United come to town this weekend.

David Moyes' men kept a clean sheet in winning at Palace last time out, but they have conceded at the likes of Hull, Sunderland and Stoke this season and West Brom should have enough in the locker to score at least once, while Van Persie and Rooney et al will be looking forward to playing a side that has kept one clean sheet in 2014. 

Dan Thomas 2013-14 P/L: + £16.99


Mike Norman
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0621/20 in Cardiff v Fulham
Saturday, 15:00

So, after 29 rounds of battle I'm back to where I started with a zero profit. Crucially though I'm now the closest I've been to the lead since the first week of the season and I know that the rest of the lads are in fear that I'm timing my run to perfection. I am, so let's crack on with this week's winner.

A clash between the Premier League's two bottom clubs has seemingly made layers cautious about offering a generous price on Over 2.5 Goals. I completely understand why, but I'm still going to take a chance on it.

The need for a victory here, for both sides, is absolutely crucial. The beauty of which is that we know both sides can't win at the same tme whereas a draw won't suit neither. And in my opinion there's no chance in this world that Cardiff and Fulham will set out for a draw and play defensively. At least I hope not.

So I'm backing goals here, and encouragingly the last seven meetings between the Bluebirds and the Cottagers have resulted in both teams getting on the scoresheet and at least three goals being scored. Ok, only one of those meetings was in the last 15 years but I'll take it.

Mike Norman 2013-14 P/L: -/+ £0.00


Luke Moore
Back Crystal Palace to beat Southampton at 3.8514/5
Saturday, 15:00

I think this is a very generous price on a Crystal Palace home win - the Eagles are in decent form at the moment (they may have lost at home to United but they won their previous three at Selhurst Park, conceding only one goal) and Southampton are at best inconsistent on the road.

In fact, Opta tell us that Southampton are in pretty rotten form overall: they've won just four of their last 17 Premier League games and are likely to lack real motivation now their Premier League status is secure and they have no chance of European qualification.

Tony Pulis knows how to set his teams up at home and there is absolutely no reason they can't beat a team with nothing to play for who were turned over quite handily by West Ham on their last away trip. It may only be by the odd goal, but that'll be enough to bank me some much-needed winnings.

Luke Moore 2013-14 P/L: - £108.30


A £10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

1. Joe Dyer: + £18.50
2. Dan Thomas: + £16.99
3. Mike Norman: +/- £0.00
4. Luke Moore: - £108.30


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February 12, 2014

Cricket Betting: If KP's so disruptive why do Delhi want to pay £880,000 to take him back?

"Sunrisers Hyderabad actually won the auction and forced Delhi to use a "right to match" mechanism to keep KP. If he is really that destructive, divisive and downright awkward then why were two teams ready to pay nearly a million pounds for the pleasure of him wrecking their dressing room too?"

Kevin Pietersen's new life as a global bat for hire has earned him a huge Indian Premier League payday after this morning's auction. Ralph Ellis says it is just another reminder that England should not have sacked him...

A week ago Kevin Pietersen was valued at precisely nought pounds by England. Nought pounds and nought pence, not for Test cricket, for One Day cricket, or even for Twenty20.

This morning, having already confirmed a new contract as a Surrey player, KP has been bought for £880,000 by the Delhi Daredevils for this year's Indian Premier League.

He's played for the Daredevils before, of course. And it didn't take long for him to be telling his Twitter followers how pleased he is to be going back. "So happy to be back with the Delhi family! Lovely start to the day" was the verdict.

Now I know you are always warned that the value of an investment can go down as well as up, but not even on the stock exchange can two prices vary so greatly for a share of the business which Pietersen's batting has become. So the question remains - how can somebody judged to be worthless by the mandarins at Lord's have a near million pound price tag put on his head elsewhere?

The answer is that it's the difference between sentiment and cold, hard cash. England have put having a happy dressing room above finding a way to accommodate a hugely talented but sometimes absurdly difficult personality. In the IPL, where money counts, they want the talent first and then it's the captain's problem to fit him into his dressing room. And they take the view that dressing rooms tend to be happier places automatically when you are winning.

All the leaks from Lord's in the last week have been about what a disruptive and nasty influence Pietersen can be. England will have a happy camp going to the ICC World Cup in March even if they are now eighth in the betting to win it at 13.012/1. Just to back up that argument there have been a succession of stories trotted out, going right back to when he first came to play county cricket and Nottinghamshire's captain Jason Gallian famously flung KP's kit from the dressing room balcony.

But it struck me that Delhi wanted him back. In fact Sunrisers Hyderabad, who had him in their side when they were called Deccan Chargers, also wanted him back. They actually won the auction and forced Delhi to use a "right to match" mechanism to keep KP. If he is really that destructive, divisive and downright awkward then why were two teams ready to pay nearly a million pounds for the pleasure of him wrecking their dressing room too?

It's easy to think there is money swilling around in India. Pietersen's contract was big but it was dwarfed by the £1.4million paid by Royal Challengers Bangalore to sign Yuvraj Singh. But have a look at some of the people who went unsold.

Ian Bell had put his name down to make a few quid. He wasn't being greedy, his reserve price was the lowest possible at just under £100,000. There were no takers. Alex Hales, who is one of the explosive limited overs batsmen considered a potential replacement to KP in the England set up, was available for a minimum of £180,000. Again, nobody paid up.

Some big foreign names went unsold too.  Australia's Cameron White wasn't wanted, and more surprisingly neither was Sri Lanka's imaginative Tillakaratne Dilshan. When the inventor of the 'Dilscoop' can't get a game in the world's most lucrative T20 competition, then what chance did Bell have anyway?

There are times when money talks, and cold hard cash says today that Kevin Pietersen remains one of the world's top T20 batsmen.

It's a shame that nobody at Lord's is listening.


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June 1, 2013

2nd ODI Betting: England v New Zealand

"We would expect New Zealand to get the win if England's resources are once again stretched."

Recommended bet
New Zealand at 2.73n/a

Ed Hawkins says England are dreadful value at Southampton on Sunday with injury doubts exposing their lack of squad depth...

England v New Zealand
Start time: 10.45BST
TV: live on Sky Sports


England
England's resurgence as a one-day force has been impressive but they remain brittle if they lose key men. The loss of Stuart Broad and Steven Finn to injury - a bruised knee and sore shins respectively - exposed a lack of depth in the squad as replacements Chris Woakes and Jade Dernbach proved expensive. Still, they did not bat well, either. Posting 227 against a New Zealand attack which itself was depleted will have hit hopes of a succes in the Champions Trophy.


New Zealand
A typically gutsy, efficient display by the Kiwis at Lord's has given then edge in the three-match series. And they did it without wise man Daniel Vettori. Tim Southee and Nathan McCullum were superb with the ball, taking three and two wickets respectively at fewer than four an over. But it was Martin Guptill who stole the show. His 103 from 123 balls was a masterclass, particularly as New Zealand had found themselves in the depths of trouble at two wickets down for one run. Ross Taylor, with 54 from 77 balls, also impressed.


First-innings runs
The average score in 13 ODIs at the Rose Bowl (not including the hapless USA against Australia in 2004) is 245. In three of the last five you would have been comfortable winners going long of 260, however. In the eight day matches, there is no toss bias to speak of. England have played only twice there without the lights being on and have won both.


Match odds
New Zealand's five-wicket victory has not impressed the market. England remain short at 1.564/7 with the Kiwis as big as 2.73n/a. The rationale must be that England will return their fast-bowling big guns but we cannot be confident. Indeed, backing the hosts at such odds without knowing the line-up is lunacy. The selectors are concerned enough to have called up Boyd Rankin, the former Ireland seamer, and Alastair Cook, the captain, hinted strongly that Broad and Finn would be absent again. That makes New Zealand a stonking wager. Even if those two are fit, they have the nous to trade as favourites but we would expect them to get the win if England's resources are once again stretched. Man for man they are as good as England in that context. Perhaps better as they certainly have more inspiration in the batting. In Brendon McCullum and Taylor they have hitters which England lack.


Top England runscorer
Ian Bell and Eoin Morgan are the men to follow at this venue. Bell, who has top scored (albeit sharing honours last time out) on his previous two visits, has 392 runs in six innings at an average of 78. Morgan has 301 in five at more than 100. Both men have scored two centuries. Bell will probably go off at 4.507/2 and Morgan 6.005/1.

Top New Zealand runscorer
Guptill should go off favourite following his super show at Lord's and it is a market with narrow options after Luke Ronchi and Kane Williamson both recorded ducks at Nos 1 and 3. Brendon McCullum will be well backed but at No 6 he is no value.


Recommended bets
New Zealand at 2.73n/a
I Bell top England bat at 4.507/2

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May 20, 2013

Open de Nice Cote d'Azur Betting: Top half of the draw the place for Nice value

"With only Querrey and the qualifiers to concern him now that Istomin is out on day one surely 51.0n/a on Roger-Vasselin is too big under these circumstances.."

Back to lay Roger-Vasselin at 51.0n/a

With just a week to go until the 2013 French Open the ATP Tour moves on to Nice and Dusseldorf for a final chance for some clay court match practice. Sean Calvert runs the rule over the contenders in Nice..

Last week's tactic of backing players in the bottom half of the draw in Rome proved to be the right one.

My choices of Juan Martin Del Potro and Richard Gasquet would both have made a profit on that basis, but I'm really disappointed that neither made the semi final and particularly in Delpo.

The big Argentine had a virtual walkover to the last four, but when you pick loses to an inspired run from Benoit Paire of all players you know your luck is out.

The week before the French Open sees the big names taking a week off, which in the case of the Open de Nice Cote d'Azur has seen number one seed Tomas Berdych withdraw from the tournament.

What Berdych was thinking in entering in the first place I'm not too sure, but he's out and that leaves an opportunity for someone at a handy price to make the final in this ATP 250 clay court event.

The home players always get raucous support here in Nice and Gilles Simon in particular as a Nice-born star is always well-backed by the crowd here and he's likely to go well.

But Simon is in the much tougher-looking bottom half of the draw that also features John Isner, Lleyton Hewitt, Andreas Seppi, Pablo Andujar, Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini and Santiago Giraldo amongst others.

In contrast, the top half has Sam Querrey and Marcel Granollers as the highest ranked players and surely there is a real opportunity here this week if we can find the right player to side with.

Undoubtedly, the draw has been kind to Denis Istomin and Edouard Roger-Vasselin after the bizarre decision to replace Berdych at the head of the draw with Montanes, who gets Berdych's bye through to the second round. Number eight seed Istomin was beaten 6-2, 6-2 by Ricardas Berankis on Sunday though and that section represents an opportunity for Roger-Vasselin.

Others in with chances in that top half of the draw include Albert Ramos and Carlos Berlocq, but once again this par are drawn to face each other early, and surely Paul-Henri Mathieu has to come back to form at some point too.

Granollers should be itching to do better after taking a beating from Benoit Paire in Rome and Querrey can't be advised on clay having not bettered the second round on the dirt since winning Belgrade in 2010.

The bottom half of the draw has a far more competitive feel to it, with Fognini perhaps my favourite given his relatively easier draw, although he may have to face Isner in the last eight, which could be a spoiler.

Andujar will be a popular choice after his good run in Madrid, but he's been priced accordingly and 22.021/1 seems short for a player who hadn't been past the second round of any tournament since Cincinnati last summer prior to La Caja Magica.

Hewitt continues to enjoy wild cards as his career winds down and he hasn't been past the quarter finals of any European clay court tournament since the now defunct Portschach event back in 2007.

Seppi is very up and down at the moment but mainly down and he's won just two matches on the tour this season on clay. A thumping loss to Fognini at home in Rome last week won't have done much for him either and he looks lacking in confidence right now.

Simon should go well this week at home, but he's too short in the betting for my liking and hasn't sparkled at all lately, while Monfils looks to be struggling with his fitness still and will be tired after a run to the final at the Bordeaux Challenger that ends today.

Others that may take advantage of players who don't want to exhaust themselves ahead of Roland Garros are Robin Haase and Paulo Lorenzi, but the big names won't be going all out for this title and I like the idea of siding with Roger-Vasselin this week at around 51.0n/a.

On home soil, the wild card could go well and he's been unlucky in recent weeks on clay being drawn against David Ferrer, Andy Murray, Milos Raonic and even last week in Bordeaux he drew eventual champion Monfils.

This week his draw has been much kinder and with only Querrey and the qualifiers to concern him now that Istomin is out on day one and surely 51.0n/a is too big under these circumstances.

Recommended Bet
Back to lay Roger-Vasselin at 51.0n/a

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May 10, 2013

IPL Betting: Kings XI Punjab vs Rajasthan Royals

"Picking the winner therefore boils down to which side can be better trusted to score a massive total and on that count, it has to be Rajasthan at 1.910/11. Whereas they bat all the way down, Punjab's top and lower order is weak."

From looking down and out, Kings XI Punjab stormed back into the play-off race with a remarkable run chase last time. Paul Krishnamurty, however, reckons their momentum will be stalled by title-challenging Rajasthan...  

Kings XI Punjab vs Rajasthan Royals
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com

Kings XI Punjab

Despite rarely looking like play-off material, Kings XI are far from out of it. They'll need to win four of their last five matches, but that's exactly how many are at home, where their record so far is three from four. The latest victory needed a truly remarkable innings from David Miller, the third fastest century in T20 history, to turn around a game that Bangalore had comprehensively bossed until his arrival at the crease. Miller has been easily their star man but, to make further progress, he'll need better back-up.

Rajasthan Royals

Thanks primarily to a 100% home record, Rajasthan are almost in the play-offs. Using historical comparisons of the points table, one more win should be enough, two more from their last four games would be plenty. Monday's nine-wicket victory over Delhi was as facile as they come in IPL. All the top-three look in fine touch and with Brad Hodge coming in at six, this side has some huge totals in them. 
First Innings Runs
Just how many runs are enough at Mohali? The last two first innings totals of 185 and 190 were chased down, the latter with two overs to spare. Clearly the usual quote around 3.55/2 for 180 and over appeals, although as always, much depends which team bats first. I remain sceptical about Punjab's depth if Miller doesn't perform and would be more inclined towards backing unders when they bat first. If Rajasthan get first crack though, don't hesitate to back 180 and 200 plus because they certainly have enough depth.

Match odds

Everything we've seen so far at Mohali suggests this match will be high-scoring. Picking the winner therefore boils down to which side can be better trusted to score a massive total and on that count, it has to be Rajasthan at 1.910/11. Whereas they bat all the way down, Punjab's top and lower order is weak. Fast bowlers often thrive early on at Mohali, so I could see James Faulkner making swift inroads, again leaving Punjab reliant on Miller.

Top Punjab batsman

Miller has now top-scored in four of the last six Punjab's innings so could be due a failure. His partner for Monday's remarkable chase was Rajagopal Sathish so, having showed he's no slouch with the bat, could be worth following regularly around the 15.014/1 mark in a side prone to early collapse and often reliant on the middle order to save them.

Top Rajasthan batsman

It's easy to make a strong case for several Rajasthan batsmen, particularly Rahul Dravid, Ajinkya Rahane or Shane Watson, one of whom is likely to bat through most of the innings. On this occasion, I'll choose Watson for his ability to clear the boundaries, which is usually the criteria at Mohali.
Recommended bet

Back Rajasthan Royals @ 1.910/11

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May 9, 2013

IPL Betting: Pune Warriors v Kolkata Knight Riders

"Last season’s Champions KKR won their opening game so comfortably against Delhi that it seemed certain that Gautam Gambhir’s men would cruise into the top four."

Two sides at the wrong end of the IPL table face off on Thursday and Matt Harris expects the disappointing Knight Riders to restore some pride.

Pune Warriors v Kolkata Knight Riders
Start Time: 15:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and ITV.com

Pune Warriors

Pune are bottom of the IPL pile after twelve games that have yielded just two solitary wins. Incredibly, one of those victories was an emphatic one over league leaders the Super Kings and that is a frustrating indication of what this talented but underperforming squad could have achieved.

One of the issues for the Warriors throughout this competition has been an inability to find a settled team and after skipper Michael Clarke had to withdraw before the tournament had begun, replacement Angelo Mathews took over but his own performances failed to warrant a start.

Unlike other sides, Pune have now tried all their overseas players in an attempt to find a balanced team but they've failed to do so and aside from Aaron Finch, nobody has really shown any form. Currently, Pune look as if they can't wait for IPL 6 to end and it's hard to see the Warriors battling for points on Wednesday.

Kolkata Knight Riders

Last season's Champions KKR won their opening game so comfortably against Delhi that it seemed certain that Gautam Gambhir's men would cruise into the top four. Since then however, there have been just three wins from eleven to put the Knight Riders on the brink of elimination.

Kolkata's campaign wasn't helped by an early injury to Brendon McCullum who has now left the IPL to join up with New Zealand's tour of England. But the real disappointments have been two key players - Jacques Kallis and Yusuf Pathan.

KKR have kept faith in Kallis, despite a poor return with bat and ball while Pathan has been shunted around the batting order with little effect in any position. Kolkata's ultimate elimination is down to a number of additional factors and if they were playing anyone other than Pune, Gambhir's men could expect another defeat.

Venue and Conditions

In five IPL matches at the Subrata Roy Sahara Stadium this year, the average first innings score has been 143 but the lack of quality in the home side makes a par total hard to judge. Within those games, Pune have managed the lowest score of 99 while RCB bludgeoned their way to 187 last week.

However, 150 should be a minimum target for the team taking first knock on a cloudless day where temperatures are expected to peak at around 40 degrees centigrade.

Match Odds

Pune's dismal performances see them installed as the outside bet at 2.26/5 but it's worth remembering that Kolkata have been equally poor at times. Those odds seem quite generous in comparison to KKR's 1.695/7 but Gambhir's side should just have enough quality to edge this.

Pune Top Batsman

Aaron Finch is the only player to show any consistent form so he's an obvious favourite at 3.39/4. Even in Pune's worst defeats, Finch has stood out but he has received great support on occasion from fellow opener Robin Uthappa who is a better bet to top score at 3.7511/4.

Kolkata Top Batsman

Gambhir started the tournament in prolific form and was carrying the side at one point but twelve runs from his last three knocks suggest that the responsibility has drained him. Gambhir remains favourite here at 3.39/4 but in contrast with his skipper, Manvinder Bisla has improved as the tournament has developed and is a better option at 5.04/1.

Recommended Bet
Back Kolkata to win at 1.695/7

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