Premier League: Manchester City's tranquil summer proves a successful one

"City’s best business was done in-house, with the contract extensions for Sergio Agüero, Samir Nasri, Vincent Kompany, Edin Dzeko, David Silva and Aleksandar Kolarov."

Andy Brassell tells us why Manchester City's relatively quiet summer in the transfer market looks set to be reap rewards with the club extending the contracts of some of their major stars and the improved form of Stevan Jovetic...

No longer are Manchester City dominating the headlines when it comes to transfer speculation. Now, the fireworks are on the pitch, with Monday night's win over Liverpool continuing what has been an engaging and satisfying beginning to the Premier League champions' title defence. The noisy neighbours, it appears, have piped down at last.

There is always a hint of concern when reigning champions have a quiet summer in the transfer market. With a position of strength the best one from which to strengthen, there is the feeling of laurels being rested upon, of decompression and dropping of intensity, and lack of a clear next objective going forward.

Witnessing the positivity of City's display against last season's runners-up, it is clear that none of these accusations could be levelled at them. Set two distinct and contrasting challenges in their pair of opening games, Manuel Pellegrini's side have responded well. They snuffed out the threat of an ambitious and new Newcastle side, before mastering Liverpool with far greater assurance than they did on The Reds' last visit to the Etihad.

Besides, City's board has hardly been idle between seasons. As Jamie Jackson pointed out in Tuesday's edition of The Guardian, City's best business was done in-house, with the contract extensions for Sergio Agüero, Samir Nasri, Vincent Kompany, Edin Dzeko, David Silva and Aleksandar Kolarov. Their few, select signings - notably Fernando and Eliaquim Mangala - fulfil very specific needs and suggest complementarity with the existing group of players.

This suits the coach. Pellegrini, as was apparent during his best work at Villarreal and Malaga, is infinitely happier having a core of trusted players to work with than having stars thrown at him to subsequently incorporate. Clearly, the quality available to him is far greater than it was at either of those two rather more modest clubs, but the club are happy for the Chilean to create fairly similar working conditions for himself.

It works for the club too, with their initial plan to attract Pep Guardiola involving the presentation of a less sprawling, opulent squad and its replacement with a tight group. Clearly players to supplement and improve the excellent level that exists requires significant investment, which would also put City further at odds with UEFA's Financial Fair Play principles.

The rare signings have been notable, and will continue to be so. Fernando was the only new boy to start, but he showed just how vital he will be as the team's fulcrum. His accurate passing helped City grab a firm hold on midfield, and he was rarely called upon to make any interventions like the one which denied Ayoze Pérez an equaliser at Newcastle last week. Fernando can do containment just as well as destruction.

Mangala will grow into being a dominating presence alongside Kompany, and Willy Caballero - one of the most accomplished goalkeepers in La Liga over the last few seasons - will look a bargain at £6m even if his only function is to keep Joe Hart performing at a high level.

Pellegrini's sanguine nature is also a key attribute in making sure City make the most of everything they have. Plenty of coaches would have ditched Stevan Jovetic after his tough opening year in English football. Instead, Pellegrini persevered, and got his immediate reward against Liverpool. The Montenegrin's regular role with City may end up being a deeper one but for now, his form means no risks need to be taken with Agüero as he attains optimum condition.

City are still second favourites at 3.02/1 to retain their crown, behind Chelsea, 2.427/5. It is hard to choose between the two at the moment but Pellegrini's men make a persuasive case, and are unlikely to go out much longer in the coming weeks.

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The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2013/14: Round 30

"Opta tell us that Southampton are in pretty rotten form overall: they've won just four of their last 17 Premier League games and are likely to lack real motivation now their Premier League status is secure and they have no chance of European qualification."

Luke Moore: Back Crystal Palace to beat Southampton at 3.8514/5

A dramatic weekend saw Dan Thomas lose his lead to Joe Dyer while another win for Mike Norman means the top three in this season's Betting Battle are separated by less than £20. Here are this week's selections...

Joe Dyer
Back an Arsenal clean sheet @ 2.727/4 vs Everton
Saturday, 12:45
Live on ITV

I'll know my fate early on this weekend as it's the Saturday lunchtime kick-off between Arsenal and Everton for me where I'm swayed by the clear trends for a tight match. 

Everton are doughty opponents for any side but they have come up short on their last three away days, failing to score in each. Those tests came against top Premier League sides (Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea) and they face another on Saturday against Arsenal. 

For both clubs this game represents a key moment in their seasons - at 23.022/1 to back the Gunners' title hopes look gone, and Everton surely won't finish top four either - so the chance of making it to Wembley will be huge for everyone at the two teams. 

When Everton went to Arsenal earlier this season, we saw two goals in the last 10 minutes with the visitors pegging the home team back with a late Gerard Deulofeu equaliser. I think this will be similarly close with the potential for a single goal to settle matters.

Rather than back under 2.5 goals - a winning bet for me in the last two weeks - I will take a chance on Arsenal keeping the visitors out for the full 90 minutes this time. The backline has kept 12 clean sheets in the league and with Everton proving shot-shy in recent weeks I think 2.727/4 is a fair price for them to record another clean sheet.  

Joe Dyer 2013-14 P/L: + £18.50

Dan Thomas
Back Both Teams To Score in West Brom v Manchester United at 1.9110/11
Saturday, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

The Baggies have been pretty dreadful this season, with just four wins in the entire campaign - the lowest in the league - leaving them one point off relegation (it's only the league high 13 draws that have kept them out of the bottom three).

They haven't picked up three points since beating Newcastle on New Year's Day and questions have already been raised about the tenure of Pepe Mel, who hasn't seen his team win since taking over on January 9.

The one bright spark for Albion has been their performances against the big boys, picking up creditable 1-1 draws against Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton, all after going behind, and I can see them at least getting on the scoresheet when United come to town this weekend.

David Moyes' men kept a clean sheet in winning at Palace last time out, but they have conceded at the likes of Hull, Sunderland and Stoke this season and West Brom should have enough in the locker to score at least once, while Van Persie and Rooney et al will be looking forward to playing a side that has kept one clean sheet in 2014. 

Dan Thomas 2013-14 P/L: + £16.99

Mike Norman
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0621/20 in Cardiff v Fulham
Saturday, 15:00

So, after 29 rounds of battle I'm back to where I started with a zero profit. Crucially though I'm now the closest I've been to the lead since the first week of the season and I know that the rest of the lads are in fear that I'm timing my run to perfection. I am, so let's crack on with this week's winner.

A clash between the Premier League's two bottom clubs has seemingly made layers cautious about offering a generous price on Over 2.5 Goals. I completely understand why, but I'm still going to take a chance on it.

The need for a victory here, for both sides, is absolutely crucial. The beauty of which is that we know both sides can't win at the same tme whereas a draw won't suit neither. And in my opinion there's no chance in this world that Cardiff and Fulham will set out for a draw and play defensively. At least I hope not.

So I'm backing goals here, and encouragingly the last seven meetings between the Bluebirds and the Cottagers have resulted in both teams getting on the scoresheet and at least three goals being scored. Ok, only one of those meetings was in the last 15 years but I'll take it.

Mike Norman 2013-14 P/L: -/+ £0.00

Luke Moore
Back Crystal Palace to beat Southampton at 3.8514/5
Saturday, 15:00

I think this is a very generous price on a Crystal Palace home win - the Eagles are in decent form at the moment (they may have lost at home to United but they won their previous three at Selhurst Park, conceding only one goal) and Southampton are at best inconsistent on the road.

In fact, Opta tell us that Southampton are in pretty rotten form overall: they've won just four of their last 17 Premier League games and are likely to lack real motivation now their Premier League status is secure and they have no chance of European qualification.

Tony Pulis knows how to set his teams up at home and there is absolutely no reason they can't beat a team with nothing to play for who were turned over quite handily by West Ham on their last away trip. It may only be by the odd goal, but that'll be enough to bank me some much-needed winnings.

Luke Moore 2013-14 P/L: - £108.30

A £10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

1. Joe Dyer: + £18.50
2. Dan Thomas: + £16.99
3. Mike Norman: +/- £0.00
4. Luke Moore: - £108.30

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Premier League: Logic-defying West Ham target tenth

"West Ham’s chances of finishing above halfway for the second straight season will depend on how quicklythey can ascend to the famed 40-point platform."
Recommended Bet: Back-to-lay West Ham for a top-half finish @ 5.59/2

Michael Lintorn admires West Ham's rapid rise up the table during a campaign of contradictions at the Boleyn Ground...

West Ham are undergoing the most surreal of seasons.

They are relegation candidates who keep a clean sheet every other game and boast two more than anyone else in the division: a side who hadn't won successive Premier League matches under Sam Allardyce before just delivering three in a row.

Goalkeeper Adrian hadn't played in the league before December 21 yet less than two months on is the overwhelming crowd favourite. Record signing Andy Carroll's suspension has inspired their most clinical finishing of the campaign.

Star centre back Winston Reid is on the bench during their longest ever Premier League clean sheet streak, while Mohamed Diame, Ravel Morrison and Antonio Nocerino can't get a start because left winger Matt Taylor - who started none of the first 16 - is bossing things in the centre of the park.

However, the greatest oddity of all is that two victories in four days against Aston Villa and Norwich have launched them from the relegation zone to the top half, with the ongoing potential to yo-yo between either realm. The Irons are 5.59/2 to secure a top-ten finish, compared to 9.617/2 to go down.

Which is more likely? The fact that there is only one top-half vacancy - ninth-placed Newcastle are nine points ahead with a home game in hand against Tottenham - compared to three for a spot in the Championship means that there is little in it.

West Ham's chances of finishing above halfway for the second straight season will depend on how quickly - if at all, of course - they can ascend to the famed 40-point platform. Stationed on 28 with 12 fixtures to snare the required four wins from, it sounds simple, but isn't quite.

They face seven of the top eight in that final 12, including four of the supposed Big Six in their closing six, and Spurs are the only top-ten team that they have beaten.

The helpful recent habit of defeating the clubs around them - something that they struggled with previously - must therefore be retained, with Hull and Crystal Palace at home and Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom away the key clashes.

The biggest indicator though could be how they fare in their next two encounters against the least intimidating of the top eight - Southampton at home and Everton away.

Four points from that double header would really put them in the frame, whereas failure to win either would relaunch their relegation battle. It is consequently vital that momentum is maintained over the upcoming FA Cup-inflicted 11-day game break before hosting Southampton.

Recommended Bet: Back-to-lay West Ham for a top-half finish @ 5.59/2

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Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Stick with the Toffees for another easy win

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Premier League: Festive season unlikely to solve Title puzzle

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Big Saturday Multiple: MTK eyeing final Europa League place

Jonno Turner casts his eye over action across the continent as he bids to select three value picks to make up his Big Saturday Multiple - at odds of 7s...

We're off to Scandinavia for our first pick of this three team multiple - and Landskrona host IK Brage at the Landskrona IP, looking to extend some impressive home form.

The home side line up for this clash sitting ninth in the Superettan,  but their recent results on their own patch somewhat belie that position - and they have lost just one of their last seven outings in front of their own fans.

Jorgen Pettersson's side have managed three clean sheets from five at home, and will be keen to maintain that strong defensive record as they face second bottom Brage.

The visitors go into this clash in miserable form, and have lost six of their last seven encounters home and away.

Conny Karlsson's charges are already a little but cut adrift from the rest of the division - and just five points from their opening five games this campaign suggests that the Borlange side could be in for a long, hard season.

They will be desperate to avoid recording a fourth consecutive defeat away from the Domnarvsvallen, but I reckon their hosts' momentum will be too much for them to handle.

Bet 1: Landskrona @ 1.75

Switching our attentions to Hungary now, and MTK Budapest welcome Debrecen to the Stadion Hidegkuti Nandor.

The hosts are in mixed form of late, and just two wins from their last eight sees them priced slightly bigger than usual here.

But their results on their own patch have been consistently impressive, and five wins from their last half a dozen in front of their own fans stands them in good stead this afternoon.

Four clean sheets from five at home indicates that Jozsef Garami's newly promoted side are adjusting well to life in the top tier, and they currently sit fifth in the table - just three points off third place, which would qualify them for European competition.

That makes this final home clash even more important for the Blue and Whites, and they'll be looking to burst out of the traps in this game.

Visitors Debrecen travel to Budapest sitting just one place behind their hosts, but suffering from inconsistency on the road, as is underlined by two wins from eight.

Elemer Kondas' won the title last year, but have struggled to repeat that success this year, and have missed out on the Europa League places this time around - which suggests that they may not have the motivation to match their hosts.

Bet 2: MTK Budapest @ 2.1

To the Swedish top tier now, and the Allsvenskan - as in-form Mjallby line up against bottom side Halmstads at the Strandvallen.

Anders Torstensson's side go into this clash sitting fifth in the table, and will be desperate to secure another three points in order to heap further pressure on the top four.

And four unbeaten on their own patch, consisting of three wins and a draw, will give the Hallevik side much confidence ahead of this encounter.

They have notched a whopping 10 goals in their last three games in front of their own fans, and that suggests that much of their their threat lies in the final third - particularly the likes of key attacking figures Kristian Haynes and Markus Ekenberg.

Visitors Halmstads travel to Blekinge County having won just one of their last 10 games, and that leaves them propping up the rest of the division - having accumulated eight points in that time.

Boss Jens Gustafsson will be feeling the pressure of life in the top tier following their promotion from the Superettan last campaign - and six without a win away from home suggests that HBK might struggle in this one.

Two 1-0 defeats on the bounce will have knocked confidence in the away dressing room, and a trip to free-scoring Mjallby would not be the choice of the visitors at the moment.

Bet 3: Mjallby @ 1.9

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Premier League Tips: Newcastle to struggle in London

"Alan Pardew managed to lift his players to earn a point at West Ham following the embarrassing 6-0 thrashing by Liverpool at St James’ Park, but they still only have a three point cushion over Wigan."

Back a QPR v Newcastle draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

It's the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season and Paul Robinson casts his eye over some crucial fixtures that affect both the top and bottom of the table. Here are his selections from Betfair's Sportsbook:

Norwich v West Brom  

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5) 
Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)  

Norwich and West Brom come into this match on the back of successive defeats and I can see the spoils being shared on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Hughton will have breathed a huge sigh of relief after Wigan threw away victory against Swansea on Wednesday. The Canaries still have a three point cushion to the relegation zone and as they have to travel to Man City on the final day, they won't want to have to go into that match needing a result.

Norwich are going to find it tough against West Brom though and I think their win price of a shade above evens is just too short to back. They've only won twice since the 15th of December and they've drawn five of their last eight at Carrow Road.

The Baggies put up a creditable performance at the Etihad on Tuesday but they lost 1-0 and that follows on from the disappointing home defeat to Wigan at the weekend. Prior to that, Steve Clarke's side had thrashed Southampton at St Mary's to end a four match winless run, and I think they should have enough about them to cause Norwich plenty of problems.

Romelu Lukaku is proving a handful against any opposition and he has scored 14 Premier League goals this term. Defensively, aside from the three they conceded at Upton Park, WBA have conceded no more than one in their last half dozen away from the Hawthorns so as well as backing the draw, I think backing a 1-1 correct score at 6.5 (11/2) would be a sensible bet.

Sunderland v Southampton  

Back Sunderland @ 2.7 (17/10)  
Back Sunderland to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)  

Sunderland have a suspension and injury crisis heading into their match with Southampton on Sunday but their match odds of 2.7 (17/10) simply can't be ignored against a Saints team who have picked up just two points from a possible 12.

Paulo Di Canio's side earned a much needed point at home to Stoke on Monday but it came at a cost as Craig Gardner was sent off and he now joins Stephane Sessegnon on the suspended list. The Black Cats are also missing the likes of Steven Fletcher and Wes Brown through injury so the Italian manager doesn't have many options to choose from.

Sunderland do have one thing in their favour though and that is their goal difference. As it is so superior to their relegation rivals, they know that victory at the weekend will almost certainly see them safe for another year. That should prove a huge motivation for the fans and players alike and The Stadium Of Light will be rocking.

Southampton had looked set for a mid-table finish but two draws followed by two defeats has left them on the edge of a relegation scrap. Mauricio Pochettino also has suspensions to worry about as both Danny Fox and Gaston Ramirez are out following red cards against West Brom. 

Rickie Lambert has 14 goals to his name this season but he hasn't scored in five and his goals are vital to The Saints' success. They've won just once on the road in their last eight and failed to score in three of the last four.

A home win is a great value bet at 2.7 (17/10) although I can see Southampton scoring a goal, so a 2-1 correct score at 9.5 (17/2) is my other selection.

QPR v Newcastle  

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5)  
Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)  

Newcastle are another team in the relegation mix and I can seem them only being able to get a point at rock bottom QPR. 

Harry Redknapp's side look set to finish bottom of the pile after picking up just two points from a possible 21. They haven't been thrashed in any of their recent matches but their lack of quality, especially in front of goal, has been there for all to see.

Rangers haven't scored in over 360 minutes of football and the likes of Loic Remy almost seem a touch disinterested now that their fate has been sealed. 

Newcastle have had an appalling campaign, domestically at least, and while there have been mitigating circumstances - European football and terrible luck with injuries - they simply haven't been good enough.

Alan Pardew managed to lift his players to earn a point at West Ham following the embarrassing 6-0 thrashing by Liverpool at St James' Park, but they still only have a three point cushion over Wigan. 

Victory at Loftus Road should see them safe but they haven't won away since January and the draw seems the value bet here at 3.4 (12/5). QPR may be struggling in front of goal but the Magpies have shipped an astonishing 66 goals this season so a 1-1 correct score looks good at odds of 6.5 (11/2).

Recommended Bets
Back a Norwich v West Brom draw @ 3.4 (12/5)  
Back a 1-1 correct score in Norwich v West Brom @ 6.5 (11/2)  
Back Sunderland @ 2.7 (17/10)  
Back Sunderland to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)  
Back a QPR v Newcastle draw @ 3.4 (12/5)  
Back a 1-1 correct score in QPR v Newcastle @ 6.5 (11/2)  

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Champions League: Back Bayern to go to the Nou Camp and win

"It doesn't bode well for Barcelona. Nor did their performance at Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. Like in the second leg of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain, they required Lionel Messi to come off the bench to rescue them from a goal down with a moment of inspiration."

Bayern to win 3.9n/a

James Horncastle thinks Bayern can complete an historic double over Barcelona when the two teams meet at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night...

"There is a lot of catching up to do. I don't think it has ever happened in the history of the Champions League but we will do our best," Barcelona assistant coach Jordi Roura said after watching his team receive a 4-0 "drubbing," as Gerard Pique called it, from Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena. 

Roura's instinct was correct. In the 155 cases of a team losing the first leg away from home by a 4-0 scoreline in this competition since the 1970-71 season, no one has ever contrived to go through. True, there's always a first time, but considering the state Barca are currently in and how formidable their opponents are, a miracle looks unlikely.

Barca, it must be said, have made a habit of launching successful comebacks this season. 

After losing 2-0 to Milan at San Siro in the Round of 16, they then won 4-0 at the Camp Nou. That would be enough to take things to extra-time on Wednesday night and serves as an example of what they're still capable of. 

Bayern, at the same stage of the competition, also displayed a complacency that might give Barcelona a feint hope. After beating Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates, they found themselves 2-0 down at the Allianz Arena. Laurent Koscielny's 85th minute goal made the close of that game unnecessarily nervy.  

You suspect Bayern will have learned from that experience. So dominant were they in the first leg, imposing themselves on Barca, cowing them into submission with their physicality like no one else in the last four and a half years, that while they're likely to still be respectful, you'd think they're unlikely to be scared on taking the field at the Camp Nou. 

Bayern won again at the weekend to set a new record points-total in the Bundesliga. Freiburg were beaten 1-0 even though Bastian Schweinsteiger, Philipp Lahm and Thomas Müller were in the stands and Arjen Robben, Dante, Manuel Neuer and David Alaba left on the bench. Mario Gomez and Frank Ribery played the final 15 minutes and Javi Martinez the last six. All are fresh for the trip to Catalunya. 

It doesn't bode well for Barcelona. Nor did their performance at Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. Like in the second leg of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain, they required Lionel Messi to come off the bench to rescue them from a goal down with a moment of inspiration. Eight minutes after replacing Xavi he equalised with a sensational goal. Alexis Sanchez then gave Barcelona the lead, but they couldn't hold on. Ander Herrera levelled in the 90th minute.

Barcelona are 1.9620/21 to win on Wednesday night. Considering the vibe around them at the moment and how good their opponents are, that seems flattering. Sure, Bayern haven't won at the Camp Nou since the group stages back in 1998 when they came back from behind to beat the hosts 2-1 with goals from Alexander Zickler and Hasan Salihamidzic. But their first victory there in 15 years appears closer, certainly than it did in 2009, when they lost 4-0 during the height of the Pep Guardiola era. 

Barcelona aren't as good as they were then and Bayern are better. Back them to win at 3.9n/a. 

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Bayern to win 3.9n/a

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Premier League: Back QPR to hit rock bottom again

"On paper at least, it's Redknapp's overpaid flops who have the toughest looking schedule, playing Arsenal and Liverpool with a game against relegation-fighting Newcastle sandwiched in between."
Recommended Bet: Back QPR to finish rock bottom @ 2.56/4

As the bottom two prepare for their long awaited Premier League departures, Christian Crowther assesses the 'Rock Bottom' market...

The race for the top flight wooden spoon is on! In the blue and white corner, we have Reading and in the, erm, blue and white corner also, it's Harry Redknapp's QPR.

If you support a team that wear Hoops in the Premier League this season, you'll no doubt be thinking twice before renewing your season tickets.

After a roundly depressing Sunday lunchtime showing on the box, which summed up two miserable campaigns perfectly, the 0-0 draw at the Madejski seemed a fitting way to end months of putting off the inevitable by sending the two teams into the Championship for the start of next season.

If it had been a boxing match, any referee worth his salt would have ended the contest at half-time.

As it stands, both sides are down with just 25 points apiece and only one goal the difference, keeping QPR just a whisker in front with three left to play.

Reading are favourites at 1.68/13 to finish rock bottom with QPR rated at 2.56/4 to return to the position they kept warm for most of the season.

This is the time to assess both clubs' respective form and run-ins then to search for clues. The form book does little to separate things as that Sunday stroll made it two draws and two defeats from their last four Premier League outings for both.

However, on paper at least, it's Redknapp's overpaid flops who have the toughest looking schedule, playing Arsenal and Liverpool with a game against relegation-fighting Newcastle sandwiched in between.

Arsenal are finishing the season strongly as they strive for a Champions League place and wounded Liverpool have clearly been galvanised by the Luis Suarez affair.

It's difficult to see QPR cultivating much success from these fixtures and a point looks about the best they could hope for as the reverse fixtures with all three opponents
produced none at all.

In comparison, Nigel Adkins' Royals have a slightly gentler looking list with trips to Fulham and West Ham split by a chance to host the outgoing champions Manchester City at the Madejski.

Although strong at home, West Ham represent one of the only five teams Reading have beaten in the league this season, while they also took a point off Fulham earlier in the campaign.

Recommended Bet: Back QPR to finish rock bottom @ 2.56/4

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Premier League: Newcastle should stay loyal to Pardew

"While Pardew is far from beyond criticism for the Magpies' miserable league campaign, certain circumstances out of his control have contributed heavily to it."

After a humiliating 6-0 defeat to Liverpool, the knives are out for Alan Pardew but this is no time to give up on their boss writes Christian Crowther...

Newcastle's second embarrassing home defeat on the spin, in which they were smashed for six by Liverpool, has seen the Toon dip their toe into Premier League relegation quicksand.

However, although the Magpies are now back in danger of the plunge - rated at 12.011/1 to go down - owner Mike Ashley should not be tempted into a reactionary squeeze on the trigger.

The man he would be firing, Alan Pardew, signed an eight-year contract off the back of Newcastle's best finish in the Premier League since 2003/04 last campaign, so it would make owner and club the laughing stock should he cast his man aside now.

It's no coincidence that Newcastle's wildly differing fortunes over recent years have been underpinned by one of the hottest managerial seats in the land.

Inadvertently, Pardew's biggest mistake at Newcastle so far was probably leading the Toon to that fifth-place finish last season. This highly commendable achievement has actually ended up causing Pardew a painful headache.

He's not only raised the bar of expectation to an unsustainable height, but with such a tight squad at his disposal, their resulting Europa League commitments have stretched things to breaking point.

While Pardew is far from beyond criticism for the Magpies' miserable league campaign, certain circumstances out of his control have contributed heavily to it.

For a start, his squad has been ravaged by injury since the very beginning of this campaign, especially in those vital defensive positions.

Ryan Taylor, Tim Krul, Fabricio Coloccini, James Perch, Mike Williamson, Danny Simpson and latterly David Santon have all missed many games due to injury.

Meanwhile, two of their most creative talents in French duo Yohan Cabaye and Hatem Ben Arfa were sidelined for lengthy spells, adding to the inconsistency of team selection.

Although Pardew targeted certain players in the summer, it wasn't until January - after the gruelling group stages of the Europa League had already taken place and ground had been lost in the Premier League - that he was able to capture the likes of Mathieu Debuchy.

He was also helpless in losing his top scorer Demba Ba to Chelsea in the same month and, while Papiss Cisse has notched a few latterly, Ba's compatriot is nothing like as reliable a source of goals.

For a while, the influx of French talent in January looked like it would turn the Toon's season around but they have since dropped off, something Pardew must shoulder some blame for.

Still, it would be foolish to sack the man who bought all these players to the club. Pardew must be backed not sacked and, if they stay up by the skin of their teeth, then next season should be much better for Newcastle.

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Premier League Betting: Reading v QPR

"It’s really no wonder that Reading are bottom of the league when you consider that they have conceded the first goal in 21 of their 34 games."

Reading and QPR meet in the last chance saloon on Sunday, with both teams needing a win to have a chance of survival. Dan Fitch picks out the value bets...

Reading v QPR
Sunday, KO 13:13, Live on Sky Sports 1

I'm sure that when the good folk at Sky decided to televise this match, they envisaged that at least one of these teams would still be in with a shot of survival. 

Instead we are left with a scenario where any loser will be relegated, while the only reward for the winner is to survive for another week or two. The worst result for all concerned is the draw, which could see both teams relegated if Aston Villa were to get a point on Monday.

All of which suggests a game where both teams will go at it with reckless abandon. The chances are that they will both get relegated anyway, so why not go down swinging?

Both sides teams are in shocking form considering that they're meant to have been fighting for survival. In Reading's defence, they at least have the excuse that their players really aren't good enough for the Premier League. Just one point from the last 27 is surely confirmation of this.

QPR have talent within their squad, but the ill-considered way that it has been put together has not been conducive to producing a team. They started March with back-to-back wins, but have since lost four and drawn one of their next five games.

Where both teams have been consistent is the amount of goals that their games have produced. Some 11 of Reading's last 14 games have produced over 2.5 goals, while QPR have done likewise in four of their last seven matches. 

With so much on the line it would be disappointing if both sides weren't throwing the kitchen sink at each other, so over 2.5 goals at 1.9210/11 and the 1.715/7 for both teams to score, look like shrewd investments. 

When it comes to who will score, the only player in any sort of form in front of goal is QPR's Loic Remy. Even so, the 2.35/4 on offer for the French striker to find the net looks a bit short. The 6.25/1 for him to score first looks a better bet. 

Reading score a lot of late goals, so it is QPR who are likelier to open the scoring and can be backed to do so at 2.111/10. The home side are priced at 1.9520/21 to score the last goal.

It's really no wonder that Reading are bottom of the league when you consider that they have conceded the first goal in 21 of their 34 games. Given the season these two teams have had it would be no surprise if the produced the result that neither wants - a draw. The half-time QPR/full-time draw double result is available at 15.014/1 and could be worth a small stakes bet.

Perhaps the most pertinent market to examine as these two scrap it out at the foot of the league is Betfair's Rock Bottom market. Reading are the 1.674/6 favourites, with QPR at 2.47/5. While they're both level on points and are separated by just one goal, it is Reading who have the tougher fixtures, with their next home game against Manchester City. Therefore, the odds look about right.

All in all, this game probably has more meaning as a sort of pre-season friendly between two of the contenders for the 2013-14 Championship title, than it does over the relegation battle.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9210/11
Back Loic Remy to score first at 6.25/1
Back QPR half-time/the draw full-time at 15.014/1

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Champions League Betting: Should Wembley already be preparing for a German party?

Following a sensational week of Champions League football, Callum Davis looks at the fallout from the first legs of the semi-inals and casts an eye over the odds for the eventual winner of the tournament.

In a Champions League week which few football fans would have foreseen, Real Madrid and Barcelona find themselves facing the exit door after two resounding defeats to German opponents. The combined score from the two ties stands at 8-1 to Germany on aggregate, and the prospect of an all-German final looks the most likely outcome. Surely there's no way back for either of the Spanish sides?

Barcelona look to be all but out of the running for the final, and although they have a team of world beaters with the potential to perform miracles, the task looks too difficult given the lacklustre form of Lionel Messi and the quality of their opponents.

Bayern have been described as the most in-form side in Europe this season and Barca's inability to create any meaningful chances in the Allianz Arena will not have done anything to persuade punters that they should be backing them to qualify at the price of 2322/1.

In contrast, Real Madrid's away goal gives them the faintest of hopes of being able to overturn their 3 goal deficit and progress through to the final. Madrid are 1.594/7 to win on the night but it will take more than mere victory to ensure that the reigning Spanish champions progress to Wembley, and they are priced out at 12.5n/a to go on and win the final.

With Madrid's firepower up front, featuring the tournament's top goalscorer, Cristiano Ronaldo, the issue will not be whether they are able to score the goals required, but more whether they will be able to stop Dortmund, and Lewandowski in particular, from adding to the aggregate score and putting the tie to bed. You can back Madrid to qualify for the final at odds of 5.85/1.

An all-German final is now priced at 1.241/4 after both sides registered such resounding victories with the superior performances to boot. Bayern are currently favourites to win Europe's biggest prize at 1.715/7 while Dortmund are currently trading at 3.1511/5. Despite the fact that Bayern have run away with the Bundesliga this season, I'd expect an all-German final to be much more closely contested than the current odds suggest. 

Bayern have the edge on Dortmund in their head-to-head record this season with two wins and one draw in league and cup competitions. Saying that, all three of the previous match ups took place in the Allianz Arena so a prospective clash at Wembley may not necessarily adhere to the form guide. 

Dortmund's dominant display against Madrid was arguably more impressive than Bayern's the previous evening, with Graeme Souness lauding the game as the greatest single Champions League showing he has ever witnessed. The Dortmund team have a youthful energy and abundance of pace which the older legs of Bayern will surely be wary of. If any team will be able to match Bayern Munich's work ethic and tenacity it will be Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund side and I will be having a punt on them to win the Champions League at 3.1511/5.

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League One Betting: Rosler's Brentford to get the job done

The Bees have the best home record in League One, and have lost just two games at Griffin Park all season, so they will be pleased to get back on familiar soil having faced five away trips already this month.

With the final round of League One matches this Saturday, Alan Dudman is banking on Bournemouth on securing the title (and his ante-post selection), and Brentford taking the points in the winner-takes-all clash at Griffin Park this weekend.

Brentford 2.021/1 v Doncaster Rovers 3.8514/5, the draw 3.8514/5

Saturday's shoot-out for Championship football is the stand-out game this weekend - with most things settled in the division bar the final automatic promotion place. With Bournemouth already up, the maths are simple - a Brentford win takes them to the second tier. Rovers need a point to secure second place, but can still gain the title if Bournemouth slip up at Tranmere.

The Bees have the best home record in League One, and have lost just two games at Griffin Park all season, so they will be pleased to get back on familiar soil having faced five away trips already this month.

Striker Clayton Donaldson returns for Brentford after a one match suspension, he is part of an attacking troika alongside Marcello Trotta and Bradley Wright-Phillips - all of whom have netted in their last four games. The Londoners have also scored in eight of their last nine matches and are the masters of the late goal too (as I know all too painfully).

Donny have the best away record having collected an astonishing 14 wins on the road, but overall have lost three of their last six games. Their mode is a high tempo early, relying on the long ball and to play in the opponents half. It might look a bit 'land of the giants' at Griffin Park with the visitors, but for me, Brentford are the better footballing team.

Considering the scoring run of the hosts, and their need to go for it in terms of automatic promotion, I am hoping they can deliver - I wouldn't even mind a late goal for once. Opta stats reveal that no side has picked up more points than Brentford (23) from losing positions this season - worth bearing in mind if you are brave enough to place a bigger price order in-running.

Recommended bets:
Back Brentford to win @ 2.021/1

Tranmere Rovers 4.607/2 v Bournemouth 1.865/6, the draw 3.7511/4

I am hoping for a Bournemouth victory this weekend for many reasons. 1) My outright bet for Saturday's game. 2) The Cherries were my ante-post title pick last August at 15.0014/1, and 3) My mate Neil (long time supporter and sufferer) will have no more misery.

It looks fairly simple on paper, Eddie Howe's side have rattled up a sequence of eight successive league wins (a club record). Striker Brett Pitman has found the net in all of his last eight outings, whilst the defence has been the bedrock of this superb run with just two goals conceded in seven games. The Cherries have also won their last four on the road - all with clean sheets.

Tranmere have lost the plot, and have lost their last five clashes 1-0 to make it 12 defeats from their last 16 games. Rovers were flying in the early part of the season, but they have just hit a brick wall and the players' body language recently against Preston was appalling. Opta stats reveal the horror story further, as no side have picked up fewer points than Tranmere (6) in their last 10 matches.

My one worry is that Bournemouth have already sealed promotion so in essence it's 'job done' (the most common used phrase for those who watch horse racing), but one last hurrah will be perfect.

Recommended bet:
Back Bournemouth to win @ 1.865/6
Back Bournemouth to win 0-1 @ 7.807/1

Notts County 2.3411/8 v Coventry City 3.2011/5, the draw 3.505/2

Everyone has a bogey team, Coventry are mine. When I fancy them they stink, when I lay them, they play like the Coventry side of the 90s. I am hoping they perform like the team from the 1890s - who then suffered a record loss to Berwick Rangers 11-2. More relevant historical trends from Opta stats reveal that no side in League One have lost more points from winning positions than Coventry this season (33).

County can still make a top ten finish and manager Chris Kiwomya fielded four youngsters during Saturday's 3-1 win over Colchester United. The Magpies boss faces a tough task in the summer with 15 players out of contract, but at least they have a bit of momentum.

Coventry can't score on their travels either, and have drawn a blank in their last three away games. And with just two scored from their last seven overall, they must be opposed again on Saturday.

Recommended bets:
Back Notts County to win @ 2.3411/8
Back Notts County to win 1-0 @ 8.07/1

Leyton Orient 1.9720/21 v Oldham Athletic 4.407/2, the draw 3.505/2

Orient narrowly failed to make the play-offs, but their manager Russell Slade should be fairly happy with their final league position, which certainly gives him something to build on for next term. At least Slade retained his award for best cap wearer in the division. Graham Westley won the award for v-neck sweater and blazer fashionista.

The Os are in a good run of form at Brisbane Road with five successive victories. Oldham recently secured their League One survival under Lee Johnson, and the rookie manager made eight changes on Tuesday for their midweek clash at Shrewsbury. They lost 1-0, and Johnson described some of the fringe players as 'not being good enough'.

It's a sense of 'job done' for the Latics, as three crucial wins against Bury, Crawley and Yeovil preserved their status in the division, so I am hoping the approach from the Londoners this weekend will be to sign off in front of their home fans in style.

Opta stats back up the chances of Orient, with Bournemouth (24) the only team that have picked up more points than the Os (20) in their last 10 games.

Recommended bet:
Back Orient to win @ 1.9720/21

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Champions League: Lewandowski has world at his feet

"If the papers are to believed, he could well be heading the same way as his outgoing teammate Mario Gotze to Dortmund's biggest rivals Bayern Munich."

After Robert Lewandowski's incredible virtuoso display sinks Real Madrid, Christian Crowther assesses the hottest number nine on the planet...

It's not often that someone scores a hat-trick against Real Madrid in the Champions League. Well, not ever in fact, until Wednesday night that is.

Borussia Dortmund's Robert Lewandowski let the handbrake off in spectacular style, firing in a hat-trick before smashing in a fourth from the spot to cap off one of the most unforgettable number nine performances in recent memory.

Ruud Gullit in the Sky Sports studio could hardly contain his excitement over the hat-trick goal in his analysis. That's hardly surprising given that the Pole displayed extraordinarily nifty footwork before unleashing a thunderbolt into the roof of the net.

Incidentally, those four goals now move Lewandowski within two of current Champions League top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo, with the former 5.24/1 to overhaul Ronny, who is available at 1.232/9.

It is worth noting that Real Madrid's superstar has notched ten in his last ten appearances at the Bernabeu, though Dortmund's ace has scored five in eight appearances against Bayern Munich - including a hat-trick in last season's German Cup final - should they meet in the final.

After such a dynamic first-leg showing from Jurgen Klopp's young team - average age just 23 against Madrid - their price of 1.21/5 to qualify for Wembley seems fairly safe and their odds of 3.1511/5 for glory even more tempting.

So what comes next for Dortmund's destroyer? If the papers are to believed, he could well be heading the same way as his outgoing teammate Mario Gotze to Dortmund's biggest rivals Bayern Munich.

Unfortunately for Dortmund, Lewandowski comes to the end of his current contract in 2014 and, after a performance of such magnitude, the striker's agent will surely be dreaming of what super yacht he'll be ordering off the back of a summer move.

The player himself has refused to put pen to paper with his current club and right now, he could pick anywhere on the planet.

The centre forward has been linked with Manchester United in recent seasons, but rumours in Germany suggest that the red of Bayern is his preference.

After losing Gotze to Bayern's advances, this would represent a real hammer blow for Dortmund, though we've already seen how capable Klopp's powers of rebuilding are after they lost Nuri Sahin and Shinji Kagawa in the previous two pre-seasons.

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Premier League: Back Mancini to leave Manchester City after disastrous season

"If United this season haven’t been genuinely great, their manager yet again certainly has. Which is more than you can say for his counterpart down the road." 

As Betfair launch a new Mancini To Go? market, Luke Moore explains why Roberto Mancini will almost certainly be out of the Manchester City door ahead of the new season...

As the celebrations rang around Old Trafford last night after a convincing Robin van Persie-inspired victory over struggling Aston Villa, more than a penny would have been offered for the thoughts of the wealthy owners of Manchester City. Because, make no mistake about it, this campaign has been a disaster for Roberto Mancini and his team, by any measure you wish to use. 

After the narrowest of title wins last season, their first in 44 years, the temperamental Italian went about adding quality to his squad, wielding his chairman's cheque book with abandon and promptly drafting in midfielder Javi Garcia, wide man Scott Sinclair (trust me, he is still a City player), the latest of England's injury-prone roses Jack Rodwell, an ageing and ultimately semi-retired Maicon and defender Matija Nastasic. 

The Italian also failed to convince several other targets to join his project at City; Robin van Persie, Daniele De Rossi and Eden Hazard all decided against moves to the Etihad for various reasons, and if those facts don't quite make a disastrous transfer window, it certainly pitches it some way short of a good one. Of the personnel Mancini did manage to convince to sign, only Nastasic could legitimately be considered a successful buy thus far. Mancini's 'improvements' were either unrealistic or failed to actually improve anything. 

At time of writing, Manchester City under Mancini have also recorded just 68 points this season, and even if they win all of the five fixtures they have remaining cannot approach anything near the 89 points they totalled last term. Add all that to another disastrous showing in the Champions League where they failed to win a single game and managed just three points, and the facts are there for all to see: Manchester City under Roberto Mancini are not only hugely under-performing with the group of players they have, but they are actually going backwards. Mancini has failed in all three main departments of his job.

There have long been question marks over the fiery Italian's abilities as a manager on the European stage, and he hasn't shown anything to suggest that he has learnt from previous mistakes and poor showings as boss of Internazionale, where he failed to progress beyond the quarter-final stage in his time there despite managing the standout side in Serie A, backed by Massimo Moratti's millions. Yes, if Man City want to make a serious impression on that competition they need to look beyond Mancini, but that is something that could have been reasonably deduced before he took over at the Etihad. It's his domestic failure that will really rankle with the decision makers at the top and make them wonder where they turn next.

Mancini's management style also attracts criticism. Happy to berate his players in public and wear his heart on his sleeve (just imagine playing poker against him), his faults are easy to overlook when he is delivering the club their first title in several generations, but when they're floundering 16 points behind their local rivals despite having arguably the biggest playing budget in world football it should and will be a different story. He recently commented that he felt there was no difference in quality between his side and Ferguson's, only United's superior attitude won the day. Surely instilling a winning attitude into a great group of players is the manager's responsibility? 

Much has been made of whether this title-winning Manchester United team is a truly 'great' side or not, but if it isn't, then Manchester City, their closest rivals, should shoulder much of the blame for not running them anywhere near close and really testing how good they could be. What's more, even if United this season haven't been genuinely great, their manager yet again certainly has. Which is more than you can say for his counterpart down the road. 

If City want to kick on and improve next year, it cannot be with Roberto Mancini at the helm, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if City's owners came to the same conclusion.

Recommended Bet

Back Mancini to leave Manchester City in the Mancini To Go? market 

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Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Goals anticipated in most Saturday games

"The Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term."

Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5

Jaymes Monte works through the Opta stats for this weekend's Premier League games and picks out his best bets...

Arsenal 1.261/4 v Norwich 14.5n/a: The Draw 6.86/1

A fortnight on from being priced at 1.261/4 to beat Reading on home soil, Arsenal are the same price to defeat Norwich at the Emirates as their preferable list of remaining fixtures becomes increasingly apparent.

Arsene Wenger's men are unbeaten in four Barclays Premier League home meetings with the Canaries (W2 D2), averaging four goals per game over the last three.

Only league leaders Manchester United have taken as many points from their last six Premier League games as Arsenal (both 15), while Norwich City are without a win in seven away league games (D2 L5). So the short odds on a home win are justifiable and not worth taking on.

Considering Arsenal's scoring record in this fixture and that the Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term, betting on Over in the goals markets is the way forward.

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5

Aston Villa 2.3211/8 v Fulham 3.55/2; The Draw 3.45n/a

Amazingly, Fulham have never won a Barclays Premier League game at Villa Park, mustering just four points from 33 available at the West Midlands venue. And given that the Villans come into this game on the back of three wins from their last four there's plenty of reason to back the hosts at 2.3211/8.

Fulham, however, are also in good form. But for that last-gasp winner from Papiss Cisse at St James' Park last week they'd be unbeaten in six and, regardless, have won three of their last five.

Instead of looking at the Match Odds I'd suggest a play on Over/Under 2.5 goals. The Cottagers have scored just five times in their 11 league visits to Villa Park and failed to score in three of their last four.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9210/11

Everton 1.454/9 v QPR 8.415/2; The Draw 5.04/1

Harry Redknapp billed last week's game against Wigan as a must-win for his side. Given that they didn't go on to pick up three points the conclusion must be that even those within the club now realise that they will be playing Championship football next season.

Everton, on the other hand, still have plenty to play for after taking a point from their game with Spurs last weekend, but welcome the Rs having won only won two of their 11 previous Barclays Premier League meetings.

The R's have scored 24 times in these 11 games against Everton; against no other side have they scored more than 17 in the Premier League. While Kevin Mirallas has netted in three of his last four league games and Loic Remy has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances. The statistics suggest that goals are on the agenda.

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Reading 7.613/2 v Liverpool 1.51/2; The Draw 4.84/1

Like Rangers, Reading's Premier League fate was all but confirmed last weekend, when losing 2-0 at home to Southampton. The Royals have now lost seven successive Premier League games, just one short of their top-flight record of eight straight defeats.

Add into the mix the Opta stat that Liverpool have won four of their previous five league meetings with the Royals and it's difficult to see Reading not equalling that unwanted record.

In nine previous clashes with the Reds in all competitions, Reading have never managed a clean sheet, while Nigel Adkins' inherited side have the worst defensive record in the top flight.

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.6213/8

Southampton 1.9210/11 v West Ham 4.47/2; The Draw 3.814/5

West Ham are the only Premier League team to have lost every game they have fallen behind in (10 matches) away from home in 2012-13, so the first rule for betting on this game is that if Saints score first get on them In-Play.

Mauricio Pochettino's side have won their last three Premier League games with Jay Rodriguez scoring in each of them. The first time that he has scored in three successive top-flight games in his career.

Best Bet: Back Soton/Soton @ 3.39/4 in HT/FT

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Football League Reaction: Five big questions answered

"While the title race remains open, Cardiff's nine-point gap on Watford should at least see the Welsh side secure their automatic promotion target."

Forget the Champions League for a minute; the Football League is where it's all happening, as Christian Crowther discusses...

Does Cardiff's stumble matter?
Cardiff's latest failure to pull away at the top of the Championship will have some Bluebirds fans' curtain twitching once more. Victory against struggling Barnsley would have left the leaders potentially a win away from promotion, but a 97th-minute Tykes equaliser ensured that the gap back to Hull is now an assailable-looking six points, especially with a trip to the Tigers to come on the last day. Despite winning just two of their last eight league games, Malky Mackay's men are still available as the 1.121/8 faves for the title, though Hull at 10.09/1 certainly now have a decent sniff at the Championship crown. While the title race remains open, Cardiff's nine-point gap on Watford should at least see the Welsh side secure their automatic promotion target.

Are Sheffield Wednesday safe now?
With such a concatenated looking table in the second tier, it's still viable that two of around eight teams at the bottom (assuming bottom club Bristol City are a lost cause) could fall through the Championship trapdoor. That said, Sheffield Wednesday's latest win - courtesy of Chris Maguire's last-gasp winner - should now see the Yorkshire club playing their football in this division again next season. That victory elevated Wednesday to the lofty position of 14th, where they join Birmingham and Ipswich on 53 points, six points off the drop. More importantly, their form is good enough to stay up.

Have Sheffield United choked again?
Danny Wilson's side have chosen exactly the wrong time to start back-pedalling in the League One promotion race and, with their record of play-off failure, it's not looking good. Once again, their home form is proving the Blades' Achilles heel as Crawley's 2-0 win made it four straight games at Bramall Lane without victory. The spectre of the play-offs is now looming over the Yorkshire club once more with Bournemouth on a seemingly unstoppable winning march towards automatic promotion, having notched six straight victories. You can currently lay the Blades at 3.39/4 for promotion.

Can MK Dons make the play-offs?
Having made the play-off places in three of their four previous seasons in League One, MK Dons certainly know what it takes. The Dons are currently four points off those hallowed spots and rated at 5.69/2 to penetrate the top six by the time the last balls of the League One season are kicked. With the shape of the play-off picture, Swindon in sixth look just about the only catchable team and, given the Robins are in terrible form, Milton Keynes' momentum could yet see them gatecrash the play-off party.

Are Bradford returning to Wembley?
Having recorded their third straight win in League Two to displace Exeter in seventh, Bradford's promotion ambitions are getting ever closer to being realised. The Bantams are now 1.715/7 for a top-seven finish and, on current form, the Capital One Cup finalists may not be capping their ambitions at a return to Wembley. With a game in hand over third-placed Burton, Phil Parkinson's side can go within three points of Albion and still have them to play at the Coral Windows Stadium in the penultimate game.

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Premier League Injuries: Tottenham sweating on Bale

"With Aaron Lennon injured as well, Tottenham's goal threat is severely dampened, especially as Bale is responsible for eight of Spurs' last 13 league goals."
Best Bet: Lay Tottenham to score two or more goals @ 2.47/5

Gareth Bale, Matija Nastasic and Ciaran Clark will all be big misses for their clubs this weekend...

Ciaran Clark - Stoke v Aston Villa (Saturday, 15:00)
So precarious is Aston Villa's current position in the relegation places that they can ill afford to be without any if their first-choice starters at present. Even though Irish international Clark is still tender in years at just 23, he is still one of the more senior figures among this over youthful Villa side - making 34 appearances for his club this season. Most tellingly, Clark's recently rekindled partnership at centre back with Ron Vlaar, himself returning from a lengthy injury, produced Villa's first successive league wins of the entire season. His replacement Nathan Baker is prone to a mistake, as we have already seen against both Reading and Liverpool.
Recommended Bet: Back Stoke to win @ 2.1411/10

Gareth Bale - Tottenham v Everton (Sunday, 14:05, ESPN)
A thoroughly testing night for Tottenham fans against Basel on Thursday turned into a nightmare in the dying seconds when Gareth Bale's right ankle buckled underneath him in an innocuous looking incident. Spurs will have to wait until scan results come back to find out the extent of the damage but television replays suggest he'll be missing at least the next few weeks and possibly longer. With the battle for Champions League places blazing and an extremely tricky quarter-final second leg still to play, the timing couldn't be worse. With Aaron Lennon injured as well, Tottenham's goal threat is severely dampened, especially as Bale is responsible for eight of Spurs' last 13 league goals.
Best Bet: Lay Tottenham to score two or more goals @ 2.47/5
Matija Nastasic - Man City v Man United (Monday, 20:00, Sky Sports 1)
Man City's young defender has surely been one of the finds of the season. The 20-year-old Serbian has been so assured at the back for the champions and has not only displaced England defender Joleon Lescott, but he's started each of Serbia's World Cup qualifiers. Nastasic has made 18 Premier League appearances for Roberto Mancini's side so far but picked up an injury playing for his country in the last international break that renders him a derby doubt. Man United managed to score three goals in the reverse league fixture and, although City kept a clean sheet at home to Newcastle on Saturday, the last time the Serbian missed an away match, City let in three against Southampton. 
Recommended Bet: Back Man United to score two or more goals @ 2.111/10

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League One Betting: Crewe an interesting lay on Monday

Under Guy Whittingham, the Fratton Park outfit are far better organised, and having a much more settled side has helped. Jed Wallace's recent goals have been a bonus, but this an encounter they'll have to take hold of defensively.

Alan Dudman returns to hopefully make the start of a new month a winning one, and is looking to lay Crewe Alexandra, whilst also taking on Tranmere Rovers this Bank Holiday Monday.

Portsmouth 2.829/5 v Tranmere Rovers 2.789/5, the draw 3.45n/a

Both clubs haven't got the biggest of squads, which will prove to be a test of their collective strength for Monday's game. The market is finding it hard to split the sides, and this is usually the case when two teams are fairly evenly matched, and the draw is often the best trading option.

Pompey are six points away from safety, and gained another point in their unlikely quest for survival on Friday with a really hard fought draw against Preston. Portsmouth battled and were very dogged in their defensive work, and withstood everything North End threw at them.

Under Guy Whittingham, the Fratton Park outfit are far better organised, and having a much more settled side has helped. Jed Wallace's recent goals have been a bonus, but this is an encounter they'll have to take hold of defensively.

Tranmere are a big threat from set-plays and rely on balls into the area. They are a big, strong side and have just signed Manchester United defender Sean McGinty. He'll fit in well, as he is (you've guessed it) big and strong.

Rovers were simply shut out two days ago when defeated 1-0 against Sheffield United. The 90 minutes showed
their inexperience, as the Blades were up to using the 'dirty tricks' better - according to Rovers boss Ronnie Moore.

My in-and-out play is definitely the draw, which will hopefully get to around 2.01/1 in-running. And the price is short enough to take on the visitors.

Recommended bet:
Lay Tranmere @ 2.789/5

Leyton Orient 1.9010/11 v Bury 4.507/2, the draw 3.8014/5

I mentioned Orient's potential nosebleed recently in reference to their usual wobbling anytime they get near the play-off positions. And true to form, Orient were beaten on Friday at Scunthorpe 2-1 to end their recent seven match unbeaten run.

On the plus side, they haven't become a bad team overnight. The pitch is really poor at Glandford Park, and despite Os manager Russell Slade going with three forwards, they could never quite get going. Their defending wasn't great either - but Scunny are fighting for their lives.

I prefer Orient in a 4-4-2, and they have been playing well recently at home. Two of their three games at Brisbane Road last month were over 2.5 goals, and I think they'll have to go for it here.

Bury's plan will be to press hard and harass as much as possible. Manager Kevin Blackwell recently revealed that defender Joe Skarz had to leave as they simply couldn't afford to pay him. Harry Redknapp often uses the phrase 'bare bones'. Blackwell has gnawed past the bones with not much left.

The Shakers are physical and will make the game messy and bitty. But Orient have some decent creative players, in particular out wide. And as long as Kevin Lisbie starts instead of the unimpressive David Mooney, they look a good bet this Monday. Bury have conceded 35 on their travels too, which makes the overs very interesting aswell.

Recommended bets:
Back Orient to win @ 1.9010/11
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5
Back Orient to win 3-1 @ 19.018/1

Crewe Alexandra 2.6813/8 v Preston North End 2.8615/8, the draw 3.3512/5

Two of my old friends do battle in Staffordshire this Bank Holiday, and I will go with the tried and trusted formula of laying the home team. The Alex have their JPT final at Wembley a week away, and this is the match before that big day.

Crewe have been chronically inconsistent this term, and are a better side than their current league position. They have won nine on home soil, but only one of three in March. Friday's 2-2 draw against Bury was agony for manager Steve Davis, as Crewe conceded a last minute penalty. But for me, the Shakers deserved that point as they created plenty of chances.

Davis has highlighted a lack of goals recently (which was obviously rectified two days ago), but now has a problem with his defence dealing with the ball from wide areas.

Preston still have something to play for. Survival firstly, but also new contracts under the new manager Simon Grayson. Their last three away games have been 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1 - which gives you an idea where I am going. All eight of North End's last matches have been under 2.5 goals. I perhaps was too brave in plumping for the under 1.5 goals on Friday.

North End will keep plugging away and defensively will give very few chances. Granted they had enough opportunities on Friday against Pompey to win the game (finished 1-1), and they will be strong enough to make the Alex a lay again.

Recommended bets:
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.784/5
Lay Crewe @ 2.6813/8

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