Overs or Unders: Goals to flow at St James' Park

"Indeed the goals continue to flow at both ends, with nine of the Eagles’ last 10 games in all competitions having been high scoring. And that’s a run I expect to continue."

Verdict: Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35/4

Neil Harvey returns with his popular column looking at four weekend fixtures in the Premier League in which he tries to determine whether they'll go Over, or Under the 2.5 Goals mark...

Saturday

Newcastle United v Crystal Palace - 15:00

Both teams have had disappointing starts to the season. Newcastle mustered just a draw from their opening two games, while Palace suffered back to back defeats.

Unable to find the net so far, Newcastle will surely be focusing on creating more up front. I doubt there is cause for genuine concern though. Those two matches aside, United have scored in their previous 10 games. And now they are presented with an ideal opportunity to get back on the goal trail, as they host a Crystal Palace side that's temporarily lost its mojo.

Five goals conceded in two matches will be a big concern to new Palace manager Neil Warnock. Not that he's had sufficient time to address that defensive problem. Last week's 3-1 home loss to the Hammers would be relegation form if maintained. But Palace, shaken as they were by the departure of their guru Tony Pulis, didn't become a bad side overnight. So I'm expecting a quick improvement from the team that finished 11th last season.

The positive news for Palace, is that they are still finding the net, having scored against both Arsenal and West Ham. Indeed the goals continue to flow at both ends, with nine of the Eagles' last 10 games in all competitions having been high scoring. And that's a run I expect to continue.

Verdict: Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35/4

Everton v Chelsea - 17:30

Everton's improvement under Roberto Martinez's demands they now be considered among the top teams in the country. Last season's fifth place was a laudable achievement. And it was built largely on a solid defence that ranked third in the Premier League. On average, the Toffees conceded exactly one goal per game at Goodison Park. And this made them a tough team to beat at home, as they suffered just three losses there all season.

The prize for the best defence though, went to Chelsea, with Jose Mourinho's side conceding less than a goal a game, even when playing away from home. Of course, both clubs were able to rack up goals against the lesser sides. But when it came to the bigger games, it was noticeable how often defence came to the fore. And it's perhaps a mark of just how seriously these teams take each other, that only one goal was scored in each of their two encounters last season.

That respect between the clubs remains and I'm anticipating another watchful approach from both managers this Saturday.

Verdict: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.834/5

Sunday

Tottenham v Liverpool - 13:30

Last season, Liverpool were as close as you're ever likely to get to having a license to print money. Anyone who consistently backed 'overs' on their matches would have finished the year with an extremely handsome profit. Since Brendan Rogers arrived as manager, the Reds have been a joy to behold, both for fans and goal backers. And the early indications from this season are that the Anfield goals juggernaut isn't slowing down.

A 2-1 win at home to Southampton and a 3-1 loss at Man City suggest we are looking at a similar Liverpool side to that which almost snatched the title last season - one that's potent up front, yet vulnerable at the back. And while the departure of Luis Suarez may have left some goal backers concerned, the arrival of proven marksmen Rickie Lambert and Mario Balotelli guarantees there'll be no let-up in the action.

Tottenham meanwhile have been surprisingly potent under new boss Mauricio Pochettino, whose two striker approach has seen Spurs net 26 times in just nine games in all competitions since he took over. And that kind of positivity, when employed against Liverpool, can surely only result in yet more goals.

Verdict: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.728/11

Aston Villa v Hull - 13:30

Four points from the available six for both sides make this a game where neither team is under any particular pressure. Both can afford to be patient and employ the same caution that served them so well in their opening two games. For Villa, that produced a 1-0 win at Stoke followed by a 0-0 draw at home to Newcastle. While Hull were equally unexciting in their 1-0 win at QPR and 1-1 draw at home to Stoke.

With this watchful approach having served both clubs so well until now, there's no reason to suspect anything will change this week. Moreover, there's evidence that this miserly approach is the style both sides adopt naturally anyway. For example, Villa's last five matches have all been low scoring. They produced just three goals in total and included two goalless draws! Meanwhile Hull have been only marginally more productive, with seven of their last ten games in all competitions ending up 'unders'.

With Christian Benteke still injured, Villa manager Paul Lambert remains without his main source of goals. And Steve Bruce's recent signing of defender Michael Dawson shows where Hull's immediate priorities lie.

Verdict: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.511/2

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Two And a Half Goals: Back masses of goals at the Bernabeu for Jose's last game in charge

"Yes, England did beat Brazil 2-1 back in February, but that was at home. This time they’ll be at the Maracana in Rio, where the game is sure to be played at a very different tempo and produce a very different result."

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5

The Inside Man is predicting fireworks in Madrid this weekend, but can't see there being many goals in the Maracana as Brazil entertain England...

Saturday

Real Madrid v Osasuna

Jose will no doubt be on his way after this match. It's been a tumultuous time in the Spanish capital for Mourinho and despite enjoying many successes during his three year tenure, I'm sure he'll want to fire a significant parting shot.

As luck has it, the Special One has been gifted the perfect opportunity to do just that, as his side take on 15th placed Osasuna. Safe from relegation, and with nothing to play for, they look the perfect cannon-fodder to allow Jose to go out on a high.

Osasuna managed a credible 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture. But away from home they are a different creature, and have suffered defeat by three goals or more in almost a quarter of their road games.

Real have scored 23 goals in their last five at home and should have all the motivation in this match. Mourinho is sure to have them fired-up to send a message to fans and Chairman alike, while the players themselves will be playing for their futures, as they look to impress their new boss.

For the first time ever in this column, I'm recommending we break the rules, and back over FOUR AND A HALF GOALS. After all, it's the last day of the season...and it's the Special One.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 4.5 goals @ 1.845/6

Real Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid

By contrast, there's every reason to expect a tight encounter in Aragon when relegation-threatened Zaragoza go looking for the win they need, against Atletico Madrid.

Real must win, but will be wary of being too adventurous against the third best team in the division. Their biggest problem though will be to overcome the stubborn Madrid defence. With just 18 goals conceded from as many matches, Atletico boast the number one away defence in La Liga.

One positive though for Zaragoza fans, is that their lofty opponents have nothing to play for, having already secured their Champions League place. Another, is that the Madrid side score almost as few goals on their travels as they concede. And a third positive, is that Atletico's by-far most prolific striker, Radamel Falcao, is unlikely to play a significant part given his pending transfer to Monaco.

With two nil-nil draws in their last four matches, there's evidence to suggest Atletico have already packed up for the season, mentally at least. But they should still have enough about them to make life difficult for a Zaragoza side who rank as the joint-3rd lowest scorers in La Liga, and who are sure to be nervous as they play for their survival.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5

Sunday

USA v Germany

June looks set to be make or break time for Jurgen Klinnsman's USA team, as they enter a phase in which they'll play three World Cup qualifying games in the space of just 11 days.

It's been a nervy start to the World Cup trail for the U.S., who sit just third in their group after three matches. It's created a pressure on Jurgen Klinsmann that's been tangible of late. But if there is great expectation heading into those upcoming qualifiers, it isn't showing in the build-up. A 4-2 loss to Belgium in midweek could have been disappointing. But it was seen for exactly what it was meant to be, a chance for Klinsmann to experiment and look at new things. Expect more of the same when they face Germany.

Germany of course, like to win whatever the occasion, and are one of the few international teams you can bank on for goals even when the occasion doesn't matter. A 4-2 win over Ecuador in midweek was preceded by a 2-1 Friendly win over France in February. Goals, and lots of them, are simply how the Germans roll.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.768/11

Brazil v England

If there's one team you wouldn't want to rely on though for goals, you'd be hard pushed to find a better choice than England.

England were much berated for their stale performance against the Republic of Ireland in midweek. Much like they were berated for their stale, and lacklustre, and unadventurous performances during Euro 2012.

In their last 14 matches of any kind, nine have been low-scoring. And it's easy to understand why, with Roy Hodgson's policy of getting as many players behind the ball as possible whenever his side lose possession. This of courses stymies his side's attacking intentions as well, as they then have to attack from deep.

Yes, England did beat Brazil 2-1 back in February, but that was at home. This time they'll be at the Maracana in Rio, where the game is sure to be played at a very different tempo and produce a very different result. Brazil are certain to be out for revenge, but having not played for a couple of months, might not have the vigour to go too hard on hapless England. They are though guaranteed to dominate possession and eat up plenty of the clock in the process.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.166/5

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Against All Odds: AZ v PSV = Goals

"It’s all about goals, goals, goals with AZ and all five of their cup matches have gone over 2.5, with four going over 3.5."

Lay Under 3.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar v PSV @ 1.814/5

It's the final of the Dutch Cup this evening and Paul Robinson thinks we should be in for plenty of goals between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven.

AZ have had a really poor league campaign and with just one game to go, they look set to miss out on the Europa League play-off places. They had a miserable middle-part of the season but they have at least come good towards the end and have won four of their last six in the Eredivisie.

Gertjan Verbeek's side have done well in the Dutch Cup though and after being aided by some kind draws in the earlier rounds, they showed their quality by thrashing newly crowned league champions Ajax by three goals to nil in the semis.

It's all about goals, goals, goals with AZ and all five of their cup matches have gone over 2.5, with four going over 3.5. It's a similar story in the league as their last four results have been 6-0, 1-3, 4-0 and 4-0. 

PSV will have been disappointed to lose out to Ajax in the Eredivisie but they can at least gain some consolation by winning their 10th KNVB Cup. Dick Advocaat's men warmed up for the final by winning their last three, and like their opponents, they are also all about goals.

The Peasants have scored an incredible 102 league goals this season and with 40 conceded, their fixtures have averaged a huge 4.3 goals each time. They also seem to produce the goods against AZ as the last six meetings between the pair have all gone over 3.5 goals, with two going over 4.5 and their match in September going over 5.5.

Dutch football is usually good for high scoring affairs and tonight should be no different. That's why, with under 3.5 goals trading at around the 1.814/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar v PSV @ 1.814/5 

Wagered: 128 pts
Returned: 125.01 pts
P/L – 12.99 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Goals anticipated in most Saturday games

"The Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term."

Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5

Jaymes Monte works through the Opta stats for this weekend's Premier League games and picks out his best bets...

Arsenal 1.261/4 v Norwich 14.5n/a: The Draw 6.86/1

A fortnight on from being priced at 1.261/4 to beat Reading on home soil, Arsenal are the same price to defeat Norwich at the Emirates as their preferable list of remaining fixtures becomes increasingly apparent.

Arsene Wenger's men are unbeaten in four Barclays Premier League home meetings with the Canaries (W2 D2), averaging four goals per game over the last three.

Only league leaders Manchester United have taken as many points from their last six Premier League games as Arsenal (both 15), while Norwich City are without a win in seven away league games (D2 L5). So the short odds on a home win are justifiable and not worth taking on.

Considering Arsenal's scoring record in this fixture and that the Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term, betting on Over in the goals markets is the way forward.

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5

Aston Villa 2.3211/8 v Fulham 3.55/2; The Draw 3.45n/a

Amazingly, Fulham have never won a Barclays Premier League game at Villa Park, mustering just four points from 33 available at the West Midlands venue. And given that the Villans come into this game on the back of three wins from their last four there's plenty of reason to back the hosts at 2.3211/8.

Fulham, however, are also in good form. But for that last-gasp winner from Papiss Cisse at St James' Park last week they'd be unbeaten in six and, regardless, have won three of their last five.

Instead of looking at the Match Odds I'd suggest a play on Over/Under 2.5 goals. The Cottagers have scored just five times in their 11 league visits to Villa Park and failed to score in three of their last four.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9210/11

Everton 1.454/9 v QPR 8.415/2; The Draw 5.04/1

Harry Redknapp billed last week's game against Wigan as a must-win for his side. Given that they didn't go on to pick up three points the conclusion must be that even those within the club now realise that they will be playing Championship football next season.

Everton, on the other hand, still have plenty to play for after taking a point from their game with Spurs last weekend, but welcome the Rs having won only won two of their 11 previous Barclays Premier League meetings.

The R's have scored 24 times in these 11 games against Everton; against no other side have they scored more than 17 in the Premier League. While Kevin Mirallas has netted in three of his last four league games and Loic Remy has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances. The statistics suggest that goals are on the agenda.

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Reading 7.613/2 v Liverpool 1.51/2; The Draw 4.84/1

Like Rangers, Reading's Premier League fate was all but confirmed last weekend, when losing 2-0 at home to Southampton. The Royals have now lost seven successive Premier League games, just one short of their top-flight record of eight straight defeats.

Add into the mix the Opta stat that Liverpool have won four of their previous five league meetings with the Royals and it's difficult to see Reading not equalling that unwanted record.

In nine previous clashes with the Reds in all competitions, Reading have never managed a clean sheet, while Nigel Adkins' inherited side have the worst defensive record in the top flight.

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.6213/8

Southampton 1.9210/11 v West Ham 4.47/2; The Draw 3.814/5

West Ham are the only Premier League team to have lost every game they have fallen behind in (10 matches) away from home in 2012-13, so the first rule for betting on this game is that if Saints score first get on them In-Play.

Mauricio Pochettino's side have won their last three Premier League games with Jay Rodriguez scoring in each of them. The first time that he has scored in three successive top-flight games in his career.

Best Bet: Back Soton/Soton @ 3.39/4 in HT/FT

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Serie A: Back goals in the Rome derby and Atalanta to spring a surprise

"Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend’s Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price."

Italian football expert Dave Farrar expect goals in the big derby of the weekend, and Atalanta to upset Inter at the San Siro...

Fiorentina v Milan

Having backed Fiorentina for a Top Four finish at the start of the season, it's becoming agonising to see them throw away points in the manner that they did last week against Cagliari. Analysis of La Viola's season shows that they could be in with a real chance of finishing second, and already have a Champions League place sewn up. They have dropped 17 points against teams in the bottom half of the table so far, and that's something that's worth remembering when you look at their "easy" run in. It will only be as comfortable as they make it for themselves.

Sunday morning's match at the Artemio Franchi will be well worth watching: Fiorentina beat Milan at San Siro back in November, and the Rossoneri will be out for revenge. Max Allegri's side have their sights set firmly on second place, and they too will look back at the end of the season and consider the points that they threw away in its early stages. The defining moments of Milan's season start here, with Napoli and Juve to come in the next two weeks, and they will be looking to win. A draw will cede ground to Napoli, and they can't afford that given the nature of their next two challenges. Fiorentina are priced at 3.02/1 for the win, with Milan 2.68/5 and I don't see too much wrong with those prices. Given how closely matched the teams are, in fact, the draw at 3.412/5 may be the smartest play of all.

I'm more interested in the goals markets, though. Since Ezequiel Schelotto scored the equaliser in the derby, Milan have gone 379 minutes without conceding a goal in Serie A, and that must be the main reason why over 2.5 goals is available at 2.0621/20. Given the way that the game is likely to be played, that's an attractive proposition. Although Fiorentina will be without Stefan Jovetic, Vincenzo Montella will look to use the pace in his team to unsettle Milan, and I think that he'll have some success. At the other end of the field, Milan can cause La Viola problems, and I actually fancy the Rossoneri to edge this, but the best bet is on the overs at odds against.  

Recommended Bet

Back over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Milan @ 2.0621/20

Roma v Lazio

The Rome derby on Monday night rounds off a brilliant weekend of TV fixtures, and this is a tough one to call. There have been seven red cards in the last five runnings of this fixture, and while that doesn't necessarily lead you to lump on 'Yes' in the Sending Off? market, it does make you realise that anything could happen here. Roma MUST beat Lazio to rekindle any hopes that they have of a Top Four finish, and they know that a win would draw them level on points with their city rivals. The identity of the Top Four will be the glue that binds the rest of the Serie A season together. Roma are justifiably favourites, but they look a little short to me at 2.021/1.  

I can't support a team that lost in Palermo (and failed to score) at that kind of price in a game of this magnitude, especially given the fact that Lazio have won the last three derbies. All season long we have seen that Lazio are a better team with Miroslav Klose, and even though he's on his way back, he still won't be fit to start. Roma are missing the suspended Pablo Osvaldo, and that creates a conundrum in terms of the Match Odds market: Roma are justifiably favourites, but are short enough at 2.021/1. I think that Lazio will score at least once, and we know that Roma, even after the departure of Zdenek Zeman and without Osvaldo, are capable of producing goals at home (3 and 2 in the first two post Zeman games).    

Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend's Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price.
Recommended Bet

Back over 3.5 Goals in Roma v Lazio @ 3.412/5

Inter v Atalanta

A couple of weeks ago, we profitably supported Bologna at a price to win at Inter. Something similar may happen this weekend as Atalanta visit San Siro. Atalanta are priced at 5.14/1 to win against Inter, and with the home team's striking issues reaching crisis point, Stefano Colantuono's side can cause a surprise this weekend. Atalanta have already beaten Inter once this season, in a brilliant game, and they've already won at San Siro, when they frustrated Milan, and caught them on the counter with a Luca Cigarini goal.

In their last two away games, Atalanta have won in Siena, and then caused Napoli a world of pain before being beaten.  They were unable to break down Samp last week, but there's a big difference between having to break down a rock solid defence at home, and playing on the counter attack away, and given Inter's problems in forward areas, Atalanta may have enough about them to keep a clean sheet, and grab a prize at the other end. Rodrigo Palacio has been Inter's only threat in recent weeks, scoring 5 of their last 6 Serie A goals, and his injury means that Andrea Stramaccioni is down to Antonio Cassano plus one other.

Whatever the combination, it won't strike fear into Atalanta, and, at the risk of going to the well one time too many, I'll be supporting German Denis and Inter loanee Marko Livaja to inspire an away win. If you think that Atalanta look safely midtable, and that this could be one of those bloodless performances that we can see in late season, I wouldn't worry: they have a tough run of games to come, and won't want to take any chances. 

Recommended Bet

Back Atalanta to beat Inter @ 5.14/1 

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Against All Odds: Keen as mustard for goals at Dijon

"Dijon’s matches have been averaging dead on 2.5 goals this term, with 13 of their 28 having had three or more, including three of their last five at home."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dijon v Nantes @ 1.684/6 

Dijon and Nantes meet tonight in France's Ligue Two and while the Betfair market is cautious about the chances of there being goals, Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for at least three.

Dijon are seventh in the table after 28 games played and that must be considered a slight disappointment for a club who were relegated from the top flight last year. They are now eight points off the promotion places - although they do have a game in hand - and that's largely thanks to the fact that they've picked up just three points from a possible 12 recently.

While Olivier Dall'Oglio's team only lost one of those games, three draws in a row isn't good enough, especially the two against Niort and Clermont who are both battling relegation. It's goals that we're more interested in here though and Dijon's matches have been averaging dead on 2.5 goals this term, with 13 of their 28 having had three or more, including three of their last five at home.

Nantes are flying this season and they find themselves in second place, just four points behind leaders Monaco with a game in hand. They are the third top scorers in the division and have the joint best defensive record so it's easy to see why they're doing so well. They come into this match on the back of three successive victories and with Monaco dropping points again on Friday, their incentive to win has got even bigger.

As far as the goals go, five of their last seven have gone over 2.5, with their last three scorelines on the road reading 0-3, 2-1, 1-2. Michel Der Zakarian's team may only have had 11 of their 28 fixtures go over this season, but as you can see, that is becoming a much more common trend in recent weeks.

Both of these two sides have huge motivation to win this game so I'm hopeful that they won't settle for a draw, especially if the scores are tied going into the final 20 minutes as happens in many French matches. I'd argue that the recent stats show that there could be goals in this game, so with under 2.5 trading as low as 1.684/6 I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dijon v Nantes @ 1.684/6 

Wagered: 76 pts
Returned: 71.30 pts
P/L – 4.70 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Serie A Betting: Expect goals as Conte's Juventus visit Bologna

"In the last 22 head-to-heads, Juve have recorded 13 victories, with eight games ending all-square and Bologna triumphing just once."

Italian football expert Dave Farrar thinks Juve's visit to Bologna could provide entertainment, but he doesn't expect the same at Pescara...

Bologna v Juventus

Juventus moved nine points clear at the top of Serie A with their 1-0 win at home to Catania last weekend and it's difficult to see second-placed Napoli or anyone else catching them with just 10 games left to play.

This weekend's opponents Bologna hardly looked equipped to trip up Juve, either. Bologna sprung a surprise by winning 1-0 at Inter last weekend - although it won't have been a surprise to readers of this column, as we backed Bologna at 5.2 - but it would be asking too much to expect Stefano Pioli's side to claim two major scalps in a row.

The historic stats also suggest a win will be beyond Bologna. In the last 22 head-to-heads, Juve have recorded 13 victories, with eight games ending all-square and Bologna triumphing just once. Opta also reveal Juventus are unbeaten in their last 10 Serie A visits to Bologna (W6-D4-L0) and La Vecchia Signora's formidable away form - just two defeats in their last 32 Serie A games on the road - also tells you which way this encounter is likely to go.

The 1.72 on Juventus will hold little appeal for many bettors, so you might prefer to focus on the Over 2.5 Goals market. Ten of Bologna's 14 home games and six of Juventus' 13 away games have featured over 2.5 goals. Overs is my selection.

Recommended Bet

Bologna v Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02

Fiorentina v Genoa

Fiorentina made it three wins from four when they won 2-0 at Lazio last weekend, moving above Lazio and Inter into fourth place in the standings.
La Viola's games are generally entertaining - 16 of their 28 league fixtures have featured three goals or more - and home fans at the Artemio Franchi are likely to enjoy what they see this weekend.

Fiorentina have won four and drawn two of their last six meetings against Genoa, keeping clean sheets in each of those wins. They have netted at least once in each of the last 10 meetings between the sides, with Genoa failing to record a victory on their last 14 trips to Florence (W0-D5-L9) and losing on each of their last six visits. Genoa's away form generally is a concern, too - they are winless in their last seven.

The stats all suggest the 1.4740/85 on Fiorentina is justified. If that's too short I would recommend backing Fiorentina -1.0&-1.5 Asian Handicap. With that selection, you'll make a profit if they win by two goals or more, something they're entirely capable of doing - seven of Fiorentina's 10 home wins this season have come by two goals or more.

Recommended Bet

Fiorentina -1.0&-1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02

Pescara v Chievo

Right now, Pescara are unbackable. They're stuck in the relegation zone, and a run of just one point from their last nine league games makes it easy to see why. They have lost their last four home games so home advantage appears to be no advantage at all at the moment.

Not that I have much faith in Chievo, either. They have lost their last three Serie A fixtures on the road and had managed just one point from five games before last weekend's surprise 2-0 win over Napoli. Their longer-term form and league position (16th) make it clear that win over second-placed Napoli was the exception rather than the rule.

Most bettors would understandably swerve this game altogether but the one market worth considering is Under 2.5 Goals. Sixteen of Pescara's 28 games have had under 2.5 goals. The same applies to 17 of Chievo's 28 games.

Unders is therefore my selection, although traders out there may like to wait until after kick-off as bigger prices may become available once the game is under way. These two sides have conceded the most goals of any teams in Serie A in the opening 15 minutes of games: nine for Pescara, eight for Chievo.

Recommended Bet

Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.70

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Against All Odds: Rome to the capital of goals

"The Reds need at least two goals to have any chance of progress so the manager will no doubt set up an attacking team."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Lazio v Stuttgart @ 1.834/5 

Lazio and Stuttgart meet in the second leg of their Europa League tie this evening and Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a few goals.

Three winners from four selections has got us back on the front foot and I'm hopeful of finishing the week in style.

Lazio were sent off at a tasty price in Germany last week and they duly delivered with a 2-0 victory to put them within touching distance of the quarter-finals. They were beaten in Serie A on Sunday though, conceding two goals at home to Fiorentina and that must be a slight concern for Vladimir Petkovic.

In fairness to Lazio though, they have a fantastic record at Stadio Olimpico usually. That defeat at the weekend was only their second in front of their own fans since September. They are usually good for a couple of goals as well and while they have racked up a fair few clean sheets, tonight's opponents will have to throw caution to the wind.

Stuttgart have faltered since the winter break; seven losses from a dozen matches and just three wins. They've lost their last three on the bounce and the 1-0 home defeat to Hamburg on Sunday was not a good way to prepare for their trip to Rome.

Bruno Labbadia will take a bit of hope from the fact that they've won two from their last three on the road. The Reds need at least two goals to have any chance of progress so the manager will no doubt set up an attacking team. An early goal is absolutely vital but given the necessity to push forward, they will be susceptible to the Italians on the counter attack.

This could possibly turn out to be a damp squib, especially if Lazio get a goal up, but I think there is definite value in taking on under 2.5 goals. That's why, at around the 1.834/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Lazio v Stuttgart @ 1.834/5 

Wagered: 72 pts
Returned: 67.12 pts
P/L – 4.88 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Schalke v Galatasaray: Under 2.5 goals is the way to go

"Two of the Turkish side's last three games in this competition have gone under the 2.5 mark, whereas Schalke's previous three went south of the line."
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.3211/8

Christian Crowther previews the Champions League round-of-16 second leg between Schalke and Galatsaray, making a case for a low score...

Schalke v Galatasaray, Tuesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Schalke 1.758/11, Galatasaray 5.39/2, The Draw 4.1n/a

While most of the world's eyes will be transfixed on Barcelona's Camp Nou for their glamour tie against AC Milan, Schalke and Galatasaray have some unfinished business to settle in Germany too.

In contrast to matters over in Spain however, this tie has much finer balance to it, on paper at least.

The first leg in Turkey produced an entertaining affair though the scoreline finished 1-1 to leave the hosts with the slight advantage as they head back to the Veltins-Arena.

With no previous history between the two sides other than their recent meeting, the answers to the identity of eventual winner may well be found in their recent form.

When the sides met a fortnight ago, it was the Germans who were scratching around like chickens in the dirt for a win on the domestic front. 

However, they managed to stay as only one of three unbeaten in this year's Champions League by securing the draw in Turkey and that result appears to have applied the defibrillators to a flat-lining domestic campaign.

Spurred on by the goalscoring exploits of Julian Draxler and Klaas Jan-Huntelaar - who will miss this game through injury - Schalke went on to win their last three Bundesliga games. 

Saturday's triumph over second-placed Borussia Dortmund provided the perfect platform for this encounter and closed the gap on Jurgen Klopp's side to just seven points. 

Meanwhile, Galatasaray slumped to a shock home defeat to Genclerbirligi at the weekend, following up a disappointing stalemate the week before.

Under/Over 2.5 goals

Neither side has been prolific in this season's Champions League games and, judging by the first leg, this one doesn't scream 'goalfest' either.

Galatasaray represent the lowest scorers still involved in the competition and rely far too heavily on Burak Yilmaz, who has scored seven of their eight goals.

Two of the Turkish side's last three games in this competition have gone under the 2.5 mark, whereas Schalke's previous three went south of the line. 

Schalke have only scored more than twice on a solitary occasion in their last eight games in all competitions. 

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.3211/8

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Value Alert: Reading game looks ripe for over 2.5 goals

"Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up."

It's that time of the week where Christian Crowther looks for potential value in the upcoming Premier League fixtures...

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices. This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goal markets, identifying potential back or lay value.

Occasionally, one has to put one's hands up and admit a defeat. Last week was an instance where value didn't translate to profit, as demonstrated by Wigan's failure to produce the form that hoisted them out of the relegation zone when entertaining Liverpool.

West Brom, however, did run Chelsea close in their visit to Stamford Bridge in keeping with the widget's prediction that there was more in it than the price suggested for the Baggies.

Still, there's no point dwelling as there are plenty more alerts worth a look in the forthcoming fixtures.

According to the Value Finder, Tottenham's odds of winning at Liverpool, priced by Betfair at 4.216/5, could actually be shaved quite drastically, with a difference of 1.9 in the offing for potential Spurs' backers.

Tottenham have made themselves particularly tricky customers for Liverpool in recent times too. The Lilywhites have not lost to the Reds in their last five Premier League meetings, winning three of those, including a 2-0 victory at Anfield two seasons ago.

This upcoming collision sees both teams in great form, but recent history points to more touchline-sprinting from AVB come Sunday.

Meanwhile, Swansea's trip to West Brom is worthy of a closer look. The Swans banished any notion of a Capital One Cup hangover by beating a resurgent Newcastle last time out and, the Value Finder suggests their price of 3.259/4 may be a little on the generous side.

Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up.

When you consider that every one of Reading's last 11 games have breached the 2.5 mark, squeezing out 0.37-worth of value by backing this game to follow suit at 1.865/6 should prove worthwhile.

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Two And a Half Goals: Expect fireworks at the Etihad on Sunday

"I feel this will be the day City show they are still very much in the title race by putting on a show against Liverpool."

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Man City v Liverpool at 1.75

The Inside Man is back with his Under/Over 2.5 Goals dilemma. Which way will he go this week in his selected matches?

Saturday

Arsenal v Stoke

Attitude plays a huge part in the scoreline of a football match. 

For the bulk of this season, Stoke were consummate professionals, playing to their defensive and combative strengths. And so they chalked up the points as they went, through a long series of hard-fought and low-scoring games.

But since Christmas, that's all changed. Stoke's last six matches have all been high-scoring, yielding 25 goals in total. For me, this difference in results most likely comes from a change in mentality. With 30 points already, the Potters have positioned themselves in midtable, a healthy distance from the relegation battle. With 39/40 traditionally considered the magic number for safety, it appears Tony Pulis's side now want their points to come in big chunks, by going more ambitiously in search of wins.

And Arsenal are just the sort of team who'll relish a more end-to-end encounter, as opposed to the siege-like fixture this usually equates too. The Gunners' last six home games have contained 26 goals. And with 10 of those having been goals conceded, there should be plenty of chances for Stoke to find the net and make this a game to remember.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.758/11

West Ham v Swansea

75 percent of Swansea's away games this season have been low-scoring. And the average number of goals per game is actually dropping, with three of their last four road games having ended 0-0.

There's no doubt the Swans take a defensive approach when on their travels. They boast the Premier League's best away defence, having conceded a goal less than Man City. They've also scored less goals than all the teams above them, as well as quite a few of the sides below them. And the departure of striker Danny Graham to Sunderland means Michael Laudrup now has even less firepower at his disposal.

As for West Ham, they go into this game short on confidence and unlikely to be too attacking themselves. After three heavy beatings on the road recently, the Hammers will be glad to get back to Upton Park. But their last home game saw them held 1-1 by struggling QPR, and unravelling a stubborn Swansea defence could prove even more difficult. But Big Sam is ever the pragmatist. So don't be surprised to see him settle for a sensible point, to stop the rot, and help edge his side further away from relegation.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.0621/20

Sunday

Man City v Liverpool

I'm expecting fireworks at the Etihad on Sunday. I feel this will be the day City show they are still very much in the title race by putting on a show against Liverpool.

Not that their home games are ever boring. 36 goals in 12 home matches tells you that. And now that Sergio Aguero is back fit, and troublemaker Mario Balotelli has departed, that average should rise.

Liverpool will bring plenty to this party though. The Reds away matches have been even more fruitful, bearing 40 goals from their 12 games. Luis Suarez is in rampant form at the moment, while Liverpool are enjoying their most prolific run since the arrival of Brendan Rodgers, having scored in each of their last 11 league games.

City have big defensive problems going into this fixture with the absence of their rock at the back, Vincent Kompany, a massive loss for them. New signing Coutinho is unlikely to debut in time for Liverpool, and so this game looks set to be all about the forwards. With Liverpool's last six away games having all been high-scoring, I can't see any way in which that run won't continue here.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.758/11

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The Big Wednesday Multiple: Goals in El Clasico

"Back Everton @ 1.5 (1/2);

Back Tottenham @ 1.75 (3/4);

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Real Madrid v Barcelona @ 1.4 (2/5);

Back Under 2.5 Goals in Fulham v West Ham @ 1.95 (19/20);

The Multiple pays approximately 7.17 (6/1)"

It's that time of the week for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Everton (HOME) @ 1.5 (1/2)  

Everton take on West Brom in the Premier League tonight and I'm backing them to give us our home victory of the week. 

The Toffees are undefeated in five matches in all competitions and they've only lost one of their last 13. They seem to have got out of their habit of drawing games that they should have won as they've recorded half a dozen victories in their last 10 outings.

At Goodison Park, Everton haven't managed to win either of their last two, but they played very well against Chelsea and before that they beat both Wigan and Spurs.

West Brom have started to slide down the table after their bright start and having picked up just a single point from a possible 12, they find themselves in ninth place. 

The Baggies have recently lost to Manchester United, Fulham and Reading and they had to come from two down to draw with Aston Villa last time out. 

Away from The Hawthorns, Steve Clarke's men have lost four of their last five, with the sole victory coming at rock bottom, QPR. They have  been shipping far too many goals - 21 in 11 away matches this season - and they are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Bet 2: Tottenham (AWAY) @ 1.75 (3/4)  

Tottenham and Norwich were both dumped out of the cup by lower league opposition at the weekend but The Canaries defeat was by far the worse result out of the two and coupled with their poor league form, I think Spurs are a good bet to get back on track here.

Norwich are in a right slump at the moment; knocked out of the FA Cup as mentioned above and just one point from a possible 18 in the league. Chris Hughton had appeared to turn things around as they went on a 10 match unbeaten run, but since that ended, they've been pretty poor and got progressively worse.

Last time out in the league they put in a pitiful display at Anfield, losing 5-0 in a scoreline that probably flattered them. Their home form has dipped as well, and although losing to Chelsea and Manchester City isn't too bad, they were held by Newcastle and couldn't even muster a goal against a team that have conceded 42 times this term.

Spurs have started to catch Chelsea in third after going seven matches undefeated in the league. That record was in danger last weekend but a late Clint Dempsey equaliser earned them a point.

Away from White Hart Lane, AVB's side have won three, drawn one and lost one since the 5-2 loss at the Emirates. The sole defeat could quite easily have been a win as well as they led 1-0 at Goodison Park before conceding two goals in injury time.

New signing Lewis Holtby is available for selection and him, Gareth Bale and the in-form, Aaron Lennon, could prove quite the creative force.

Bet 3: Real Madrid v Barcelona (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.4 (2/5) - Sky Sports Three at 20:00

El Clasico usually means goals and I'm counting on Real Madrid and Barcelona to give us three or more in their Copa del Rey match this evening.

This is the first leg of their semi-final tie and although two legged cup ties can often be tight early on, the amount of firepower on show negates that in this instance. The two principal players - Ronaldo and Messi - come into this match on the back of hat tricks (four goals in the Argentine's case) and it's set to be another mouth-watering clash.

The last nine matches between these pair have all gone over 2.5 goals, with six going over 3.5 and two going over 4.5. There hasn't been a clean sheet since their Champions League meeting in April 2011 and both sides are better offensively than they are defensively.

Given the league positions of the two, I'd say that this tie was slightly more important to Real that Barcelona, so with the daunting trip to the Nou Camp to come, I'd imagine Jose Mourinho will get his team on the front foot from the off to try and build some kind of lead.

This game just screams goals to me and despite overs being fairly short, it's still decent value and worth including in a multiple.

Bet 4: Fulham v West Ham (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.95 (19/20)  

We conclude back in the Premier League as Fulham take on West Ham in what I expect to be a low scoring London derby.

Fulham are having a poor campaign after a bright start and they've now won just two of their last 15 in the league. This has seen them drop to 14th place, only five points above the dreaded relegation zone. Their usual strong home form has deserted them lately; six points from a possible 21, and they have only scored more than once in one of their last half dozen at the Cottage.

West Ham are beginning to slide down the table as well and after recording just the single Premier League victory in eight, they have dropped to 12th place. Scoring goals has been a problem away from  Upton Park as before the one they managed at the Emirates last time out, they had fired blanks at Manchester United, WBA, Reading and Sunderland. 

This is an important match for both clubs, neither of whom can afford to lose. I expect it to be quite a tight affair and under 2.5 seems overpriced at 1.95 (19/20).

Recommended Multiple
Back Everton @ 1.5 (1/2); Back Tottenham @ 1.75 (3/4); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Real Madrid v Barcelona @ 1.4 (2/5); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Fulham v West Ham @ 1.95 (19/20); The Multiple pays approximately 7.17 (6/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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Against All Odds: Edinburgh derby to give us goals

"As far as the goals go, Hibs’ matches have been averaging 2.86 goals per 90 minutes so far this term, with 14 of their 21 games having had three or more."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Hearts v Hibernian @ 1.8810/11

It's the Edinburgh derby in Scotland tonight and despite the Betfair markets predicting few goals, Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a high scoring game.

Hearts are ninth in the SPL after picking up 25 points from their opening 20 fixtures. They will be looking to improve on that position and it should be quite possible as not only do they have a game or two in hand, the league is quite tight bar the top and bottom clubs. They would be higher already if they could just put the ball in the net a bit more often, as with 20 scored, only Dundee have netted fewer.

John McGlynn's side have been fine for the most part at home though. They've won four of their last six at Tynecastle Stadium, scoring two goals in three of the last five. The Jam Tarts can sometimes be a bit vulnerable at the back, highlighted by the fact that they conceded four at home to Celtic recently, and two against the lowly Ross County at the end of October.

Hibernian are having a fantastic season compared to last year's 11th place finish. Pat Fenlon's men are up in fourth place and if they win tonight they will go level on points with the second placed, Inverness. They picked up a confidence boosting victory over Celtic last time after losing three of their previous four.

As far as the goals go, Hibs' matches have been averaging 2.86 goals per 90 minutes so far this term, with 14 of their 21 games having had three or more. Away from Easter Road, eight of their 10 have gone over 2.5, with three of their last six actually going over 3.5.

While this match should be a hard fought contest, I can still see a few goals going in, so with under 2.5 trading around the 1.8810/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Hearts v Hibernian @ 1.8810/11

Wagered: 2 pts
Returned: 2.15 pts
P/L + 0.15 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: 9.60 pts)

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