Showing posts with label looks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label looks. Show all posts

March 8, 2013

Value Alert: Reading game looks ripe for over 2.5 goals

"Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up."

It's that time of the week where Christian Crowther looks for potential value in the upcoming Premier League fixtures...

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices. This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goal markets, identifying potential back or lay value.

Occasionally, one has to put one's hands up and admit a defeat. Last week was an instance where value didn't translate to profit, as demonstrated by Wigan's failure to produce the form that hoisted them out of the relegation zone when entertaining Liverpool.

West Brom, however, did run Chelsea close in their visit to Stamford Bridge in keeping with the widget's prediction that there was more in it than the price suggested for the Baggies.

Still, there's no point dwelling as there are plenty more alerts worth a look in the forthcoming fixtures.

According to the Value Finder, Tottenham's odds of winning at Liverpool, priced by Betfair at 4.216/5, could actually be shaved quite drastically, with a difference of 1.9 in the offing for potential Spurs' backers.

Tottenham have made themselves particularly tricky customers for Liverpool in recent times too. The Lilywhites have not lost to the Reds in their last five Premier League meetings, winning three of those, including a 2-0 victory at Anfield two seasons ago.

This upcoming collision sees both teams in great form, but recent history points to more touchline-sprinting from AVB come Sunday.

Meanwhile, Swansea's trip to West Brom is worthy of a closer look. The Swans banished any notion of a Capital One Cup hangover by beating a resurgent Newcastle last time out and, the Value Finder suggests their price of 3.259/4 may be a little on the generous side.

Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up.

When you consider that every one of Reading's last 11 games have breached the 2.5 mark, squeezing out 0.37-worth of value by backing this game to follow suit at 1.865/6 should prove worthwhile.

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April 5, 2012

Irish National preview: Fringe looks a cut above Fairyhouse rivals

Ante-post RSS / / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

JP McManus looks set to hold a strong hand in the Irish National on Monday.

JP McManus looks set to hold a strong hand in the Irish National on Monday.

"On The Fringe is already established as one of the top hunters, fourth in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in 2010/11 and third to Salsify at Leopardstown on his reappearance..."

The Irish National is the highlight of Fairyhouse's prestigious Easter Festival, and this year's renewal looks set to prove a typically competitive affair...

Four Commanders made steady progress throughout the campaign, winning a maiden chase at Down Royal in November and making the frame every outing since. He again impressed with his jumping when third to Teaforthree in the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival and his straightforward style of racing (tends to be ridden prominently) means that he should avoid traffic problems, but he may just prove vulnerable to speedier sorts.

Groody Hill progressed in leaps and bounds before the turn of the year, finishing with a flourish to nail Ad Idem close home in the Troytown at Navan and complete the hat-trick, before finishing an excellent third an ultra-competitive race at Leopardstown over Christmas, likely to have finished closer but for a mistake two out. He's been freshened up since that busy spell and should give a good account.

Cross Appeal is another to have gone the right way this campaign and doubled his tally over fences in the aforementioned contest at Leopardstown. He scrambled home by three-quarters of a length in the end, though, having been around four lengths clear at the last, so his stamina for this longer trip is by no means copper-bottomed.

Ninetieth Minute took advantage of a straightforward task in a maiden chase at Fairyhouse last time and seems sure to get a lenient mark in relation to the pick of his hurdles form. That came back in 2009/10, though, so it remains to be seen whether he is quite the force of old, while his attitude has long been a cause for concern. With stamina doubts and lack of chasing experience further negatives, he looks opposable at the current prices [13.5].

Alfie Sherrin returned to form in first-time cheekpieces to land a Cheltenham Festival handicap last time, doing so in the manner of one who will be suited by this sort of trip, and still looks feasibly weighted judged on his strong hurdling form of a couple of years ago. He has been let down by his jumping before, but was far better in that department last time and has to be accorded respect.

Allee Garde didn't look well beforehand and got no further than the twelfth in the four-miler at Cheltenham last time, but his form on this side of the Irish Sea prior to Cheltenham reads quite well, third in graded races at Leopardstown and Naas and shaping as if a marathon trip would be right up his street. He seems well suited by a sound surface.

Lastoftheleaders represents last year's winning trainer and has a similar sort of profile to Organisedconfusion, having been campaigned at significantly shorter trips all season, as well as having his final prep run over hurdles. He's certainly done enough to suggest he's in good heart in recent outings, his latest run over fences saw him rout the field in a seventeen-furlong handicap at this track. With plenty of stamina in his pedigree he looks a major player.

Quiscover Fontaine ran well in this race last year, patiently ridden and meeting some trouble before keeping on well, eventually finishing fourth to Organisedconfusion. He's set to race off 1 lb lower here, having been campaigned exclusively over hurdles this time round, and has solid each-way prospects.

Glam Gerry has gone the right way since switched to handicaps in this sphere, landing a gamble at Leopardstown over Christmas and unlucky not to get closer when third in a typically competitive Cheltenham handicap last time, left with plenty to do the way things panned out before flying home. His strong finish that day bodes well for his prospects of staying this far and he could be a threat to all if his jumping holds up.

On The Fringe is very lightly raced under Rules but is already established as one of the top hunters, fourth in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in 2010/11 and third to Salsify at Leopardstown on his reappearance, shaping as if the run would bring him on. His initial mark looks lenient and he is definitely one for the shortlist.

Aigle d'Or is presumably quite a fragile sort given his profile, but he has done enough this season to suggest he could be up to landing one of these big handicaps when things fall his way, unlucky not to finish closer when sixth at Leopardstown over Christmas. He rounds off what looks a potentially strong challenge for JP McManus.

This isn't an easy race to assess with confidence at present, as several runners also hold entries in the Aintree Grand National the following Saturday, so it could pay to look for a bit of value. One who seems likely to take part and give a good account is On The Fringe, who looks well handicapped and is currently trading around [44.0]. With a relatively quick surface seeming likely after a dry spell, stamina won't be tested as it sometimes can be in this race and Lastoftheleaders is another to consider.

Recommendations
Back On The Fringe at [44.0]
Back Lastoftheleaders at [16.5]

Saturday March 31 sees the seasonal return of British Turf Flat racing, with Doncaster's Lincoln Handicap being the traditional curtain raiser that urges Flat racing fans to wake up from their winter hibernation. Timeform's Matt Gardner searches through the field in the hope of unearthing a spot of ante-post value......

There are three meetings in Ireland this weekend but the one that stands out is at the Curragh, as it signals the start of the Irish Flat season proper. Timeform look at the pick of the action........

With temperatures predicted to hit 20°C it isn't going to feel much like the cold season at Lingfield on Saturday, where the Winter Derby head's a quality card. Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at the ten-furlong Group 3 feature and warms to the claims of one horse in particular......


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March 24, 2012

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Woods looks the value now

The Punter RSS / / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tiger Woods - a value price now, according to The Punter

Tiger Woods - a value price now, according to The Punter

“The [5.5] Tiger Woods trades at now looks better value than the [9.2] he started the week at but given he’ll feature in tonight’s live broadcast, it makes sense to wait and see how he’s playing. “

Our man's off to a poor start in Morocco, where they've only just started playing round two, but it's better news in Florida where both his picks start well, and he's got his eye on Tiger Woods too now...

15:10 - March 23, 2012

I thought I'd better post again, as I wouldn't want to put anyone away with my earlier comment about the draw bias in Morocco. Most surprisingly, the wind has dropped away to nothing and those on the course now are faring quite well.


14:10 - March 23, 2012

After yet another pants start by my picks at a European Tour event, I took the decision to go to the gym this morning and it was the best decision I've made so far with regards to the Trophee Hassan II. High winds suspended play all morning so I didn't miss a thing.

Best of my pre-event picks so far is Hennie Otto, who on -3, is four shots off the early pace set by Damien McGrane. It looked as though he was going to be in a much better place at one point though. With a hole to play his score read -6 but he made double-bogey on the 18th and had one of his earlier birdies changed to a par. An error on the European Tour website's leaderboard! Whatever next? I am, of course, being sarcastic. No doubt, next will be yet more scoring errors. I can't stress enough how careful you have to be when trading in-running on the European Tour, score changes are commonplace on their website.

To make matters worse with my picks, I'd written in my preview that I may well back Alex Noren if he continued to drift. Unfortunately he did just that and I added him to my portfolio at [60.0]. He shot two over par. And I can't say I'm too chuffed to see last week's fancy, Alejandro Canizares, bang there a week late either!

It looks likely that those drawn early - late are going to have a huge advantage now. Play has just restarted and the afternoon starters of yesterday, who should have played this morning, are out there now battling what's still a strong breeze. Those that played yesterday morning and that should have been out there now, are not likely to see any action today. Instead they'll start round two in the morning, where they're almost certain to encounter easier conditions.

I'm going to wait and see how things develop in Morocco now and focus my attentions on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where thankfully I fared a bit better on day one. It hasn't been without its frustrations though.

As I write, Bubba Watson, one of my two picks, has just missed a birdie putt from within four feet, and that's the third time he's missed from that distance already this week. That really doesn't bode well at all.

Watson and my only other pick, Sean O'Hair, both finished day one inside the top-10 after shooting three under par. Jason Dufner and Charlie Wi held the early lead after shooting three better. Tiger Woods equalled my guys' and with an afternoon start, I'll be keeping a very keen eye on him this evening. The [5.5] he trades at now looks better value than the [9.2] he started the week at but given he'll feature in tonight's live broadcast, it makes sense to wait and see how he's playing.

Trophee Hassan II Pre-Event Selections:
Rhys Davies @ [60.0]
Alex Noren @ [60.0]
Hennie Otto @ [70.0]
Julien Quesne @ [85.0]
Michael Hoey @ [85.0]
Eduardo De La Riva @ [130.0]


Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:

Bubba Watson @ [32.0]
Sean O'Hair @ [95.0]

Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, looks forward to the year's first major, highlighting trends to follow and pitfalls to avoid at the US Masters...

With so little course form to go on, Steve looks to last week for the bulk of his five selections at this week's Race To Dubai event......

The Punter takes a look at this week's PGA Tour event, where Tiger Woods bids to win his seventh Arnold Palmer Invitational......


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March 18, 2012

Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Dressedtothenines looks good at Limerick

Tipping RSS / / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

J P McManus owns Dressedtothenines

J P McManus owns Dressedtothenines

"That form is already the best on offer in the novice hurdle at Limerick and Dressetothenines is open to further improvement".

Plenty of runners in Ireland this Sunday and Timeform's Irish team have win selections from Limerick and Navan.

The well-bred Dressedtothenines (14:55) wasted little time in improving on her hurdling debut when landing a five-runner mares novice at Clonmel and progressed again when a very good second to subsequent Ballymore runner-up Felix Yonger. That form is already the best on offer in the novice hurdle at Limerick and Dressetothenines is open to further improvement.

Charles Byrnes has a great record with horses he gets from other trainers and Whiskey Hall (15:25) looks a fascinating recruit for the shrewd handler. He benefited from the step up to three miles when winning at Clonmel in 2010/11 and was unlucky to catch a tartar in Fahamore here over Christmas. He failed to back that effort up next time, but a break and a change of yard is expected to have done the trick.

Shinrock Paddy, Action Master, Mister First and Ballyburke are all towards the head of the market in the novice handicap chase at Navan, but none look to have the chance their price suggests at this stage and Marble House (16:35) looks the value at around [17.0]. Marble House was still going well in behind the leaders when falling four out in a competitive handicap at Punchestown won by Portrait King last time and the form of that race is working out really well. He's still unexposed at staying distance over fences and is worth taking a chance on at a big price.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Dressedtothenines in the 14:55 at Limerick
Back Whiskey Hall in the 15:25 at Limerick
Back Marble House in the 16:35 at Navan
...........
Race Passes subscribers already enjoy access to our ratings, form & in-play data. And now there's more - we've added a list of Horses In Focus, last 3 runs on the meeting summary & coverage of big races abroad. And all for the same price!

New Timeform Radio signing John O'Connell makes the picks today - will it be a winning debut? We'll find out after the 15:45 at Newton Abbot...

Timeform's US team highlight a trio of SmartPlays for Sunday evening in North America.......

Today's Follow The Money Movers come from the meetings at Newton Abbot and Carlisle....

Can Nick pull out a winner from today's Newton Abbot card?...


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August 4, 2011

Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Jamsie Hall looks very well treated

Tipping RSS / Stuart Jones / 02 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Roscommon gets underway at 17:10

Roscommon gets underway at 17:10

"The form of that latest outing has been franked since, with the third winning next time out, and Jamsie Hall has been given a real chance by the handicapper with a mark of just 109".

Three selections for Tuesday's jumps meeting at Roscommon...

Willie Mullins isn't the dominant training force in Ireland without good reason and it's unusual for one that has switched to his yard to slip under the radar, but Bundle of Fun (18:10) looks overpriced at [4.0] in the second division of the maiden hurdle. A fair maiden chaser for John Joseph Murphy, Bundle of Fun's profile isn't too disimilar to that of Dorset's Square, who improved markedly for the change of yard. This maiden hurdle is particularly weak, and he's expected to make a winning debut for the champion trainer.

Ongenstown Lad (18:40) had been progressing nicely over hurdles prior to a mishap at Downpatrick last time, winning two of his three completed starts this term and looking one to keep onside when scoring readily at Sligo. He's been crying out for this step up to three miles, and although raised a further eight pounds since Downpatrick, he's totally unexposed in staying handicaps and looks worth a chance to regain the winning thread.

Jamsie Hall rates as a confident selection in the handicap chase at 19:50. His form has taken off since joining this new yard, winning a hunter at Downpatrick in May before a very good second on both of his next two starts, likely to have won but for a couple of late mistakes when behind Court Red Handed in a novice at Stratford. The form of that latest outing has been franked since, with the third winning next time out, and Jamsie Hall has been given a real chance by the handicapper with a mark of just 109.

Recommendations
Back Bundle of Fun in the 18:10
Back Ongenstown Lad in the 18:40
Back Jamsie Hall in the 19:50
....................
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Two plays and a lay for Tuesday from Timeform's US team......

Catterick is the venue for today's placepot......

We have got three more win bets for the Bank Holiday action in Ireland......


Betfair website

July 21, 2011

Follow The Money: Garud looks no good

Follow the Money RSS / Follow The Money / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lay of the day runs at Sandown (above)

Lay of the day runs at Sandown (above)

"Garud has been drifting this morning from [3.00] out to [4.10]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Bath and Sandown.


Our first race is the 13:30 at Bath where Interakt has had support to move from [8.40] in to [5.80]. In good form of late, she won on her penultimate start and then ran well in defeat last time out. She will appreciate a strong gallop, and if the race is run to suit she is sure of a bold show in this less than stellar contest.

Over at Sandown in the 16:30, Garud has been drifting this morning from [3.00] out to [4.10]. Although he finished second in a decent maiden first time out, he looked green and will need more today. Looks to be up against a decent type in the favourite Dare To Dance and it wouldn't be a shock to see him runner-up again.

The final selection is in the 16:50 at Bath where What Katie Did has been backed down to [6.20] from [9.40]. He's looking to end a long losing streak and has come into some improved form on his last two starts, including finishing third when backed in to favouritism last time out. He's now down to his lowest ever weight and the strength of the competition gives him a good chance today.

Recommended Bets
Back Interakt @ [5.80] in the 13:30 @ Bath
Lay Garud @ [4.10] in the 16:30 @ Sandown
Back What Katie Did @ [6.20] in the 16:50 @ Bath

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Catterick and Lingfield....

Today's movers come from the meetings at Musselburgh and Yarmouth....

Two backs, one lay, it's Follow The Money's selections for today....


Betfair website

July 9, 2011

Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Black looks Banker material at Tipperary

Tipping RSS / Patrick Jupp / 09 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The action at Tipperary is due to start at 14.10

The action at Tipperary is due to start at 14.10

"The sprint handicap at 16.45 contains the best bet of the day in the shape of Bank On Black. She's had no luck at all since joining Willie McCreery this season, again poorly drawn when fourth at Down Royal last time, but the silver lining is that she's dropped to a very attractive mark"

The action comes from Tipperary today and we've come up with a couple of win bets and a lay....

Taking on unexposed three-year-olds in handicaps at this time of year is always a dangerous policy, and Alnashmy and Great Huzzar warrant the utmost respect in the 15.10. At the likely prices it could be worth siding with Sean Og Coulston instead, however, as he impressed with his strong-travelling style when climbing the handicapping ranks last year, winning three times, and is now back down to a workable mark, despite shaping better than the bare results suggest so far this term (got no sort of run at the Curragh last time).

Experience looks worth opposing in the feature event on the card half an hour later, the Tipperary Stakes over five furlongs. It's true that she has progressed with each start and won a Group 3 at the Curragh last time, beating a couple who reoppose today (Naseem Sea and Dam Beautiful). She left the impression that a step up to seven furlongs, rather than a drop back to the minimum trip, would be the obvious next step though, and has to shoulder a penalty for that success. Wayne Lordan prefers Requinto, who looked a real speedball when scoring at Cork in a good time in April, and at the likely prices a lay of Experience looks a good option.

The sprint handicap at 16.45 contains the best bet of the day in the shape of Bank On Black. She's had no luck at all since joining Willie McCreery this season, again poorly drawn when fourth at Down Royal last time, but the silver lining is that she's dropped to a very attractive mark, and everything looks in place for a big showing today. She has a competent 7 lb claimer on board and, more importantly, looks to be drawn around plenty of pace, with Ucanchoose in the adjoining stall and Kateeva and Faynita both drawn high as well.

Recommendations

Back Sean Og Coulston in the 15.10
Lay Experience in the 15.40
Back Bank On Black in the 16.45

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register or see the menu.


Today's three recommended bets from Timeform's US team......

We will skip the second day of the July Meeting at Newmarket and go to York for today's Placepot......

We have got one to back and two to lay on a what is a busy night in Ireland......


Betfair website

June 29, 2011

Sky Dogs Tips: Ballymac looks Ace for Pall Mall double

Sky Previews RSS / Darrell Williams / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Who will emerge as top dog on another night of Betfair-sponsored action?

Who will emerge as top dog on another night of Betfair-sponsored action?

"In my mind, because of his defeat the other day, Ballymac Ace now offers plenty of value at around 2.9 and he rates a solid selection"

Loughview Gem's Northern Irish Derby victory was hailed as a shock by many - but not to Darrell Williams - whose six Sky selections at Drumbo on Saturday all won. But the top tipster is expecting few surprises in the Betfair Pall Mall at Oxford where Ballymac Ace is taken to claim the prize.

Not since Fearless Ace achieved back-to-back victories in the first two Oxford runnings of the Pall Mall in 1988/9 has a greyhound successfully defended the title.

Until now that is, as Chris Allsopp's Ballymac Ace has an excellent chance of repeating his 2010 victory.

On that occasion all the pre-race chat revolved around how the sharp railer could muster a run from trap five - but he did - and how, dominating proceedings for a near five length slaughtering of his rivals.

But Tuesday evening's task - live on Sky Sports - will come from the far more familiar surroundings of trap one - a box he has been beaten only once from in five previous red jacket starts at the Cowley track.

That defeat, slightly worryingly happened to be in last week's semi-finals, where a rare missed break ensured the three year old wasn't going to be gifted the race, as he had been when making all in the first round in the fastest time of the year for the 450m trip.

But Ballymac Ace, who came into the event fresh after a recent layoff, battled on well, and although not able to catch improving youngster Pams Tomjo, comfortably qualified in second place.

While I do not envisage 'Ace' missing his start again, he will need to step carefully to avoid his kennelmate and neighbour Brittons Empire, who is awkwardly drawn for the selection in trap two. However I'm hopeful that this equally quick starter will tread a rails to middle route, rather than making a beeline for the fence at traps rise.

The aforementioned Pams Tomjo, the race's only unbeaten finalist, as well as boasting a 3/3 record over the CD, warrants respect, especially with the likelihood of Buzz Doc moving in a little from trap three, while lone wide seed Dromana Max would enter calculations if trapping as he did in the first round.

But in my mind, because of his defeat the other day, Ballymac Ace now offers plenty of value at around [2.9] and he rates a solid selection.

Win machine Union Jak Jakson can take his unbeaten sequence to ten for Kinsley based Andy Clarke in the British Bred race at 21:25 and rates the best bet on the support card. The fact he was sent to Oxford for a minor Open the other week can only be seen as a bonus and he should be backed accordingly.

Oxford have attracted five of the field that contested the Dorando Marathon at Wimbledon on Derby final night, and I expect Lottes Girl to confirm the form (20:50). Stepped up to marathon distances prior to the TV Trophy at Sittingbourne, Heather Dimmock's bitch has won 4/6 over 800m plus, confirming her Wimbledon form with runner-up Killishin Masai at Perry Barr next time - albeit with just a short-head between them on both occasions. Taylors Riviera, spared retirement after a much better run at Wimbledon, is also of interest back in her favourite trap one draw.

Head Iton Jason has a fantastic draw inside slow starting Hee Haws Montana in the 595m race at 21:10 and should complete his own six-timer, although I would have been happier if he'd had a previous look round. Monleek Merc, a brother of Razldazls George and Jayfkay, has been notching up the wins since stepping up to six bends, and is a lively alternative.

Rotar Wing can win an excellent looking sprint (20:00), where his draw inside Sleeping Urban may prove to be key. Derby semi-finalist Fifis Rocket won well enough at Hall Green and rates the logical danger.

Yahoo Jamie pays a first visit to Oxford, but has an excellent record first time up at tracks, and can claim the 20:15 for Charlie Lister,

Selections (in order of preference)
Union Jak Jakson 21:25
Ballymac Ace 21:45
Head Iton Jason 21:10
Rotar Wing 20:00
Lottes Girl 20:50
Yahoo Jamie 20:15

A fortnight after Taylors Sky's riveting Derby victory, Sky Sports cameras pay a first visit to Belfast for the Northern Irish Derby where Darrell Williams thinks Loughview Gem offers a value alternative to hot favourite Leeview Jet....

Taylors Sky can create history by winning the Greyhound Derby final at Wimbledon on Saturday night - live on Sky Sports - and provide legendary trainer Charlie Lister with a record breaking sixth Derby success says Darrell Williams....

The Sky cameras are again at Wimbledon where the remaining 12 will be whittled down to six Derby finalists - find out who The Lord will be opposing on tonight's card...


Betfair website

May 25, 2011

Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Space Race looks out of this world

Tipping RSS / Patrick Jupp / 25 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jessica Harrington and Barry Geraghty look to have a good chance with Space Race in the 19.10 contest

Jessica Harrington and Barry Geraghty look to have a good chance with Space Race in the 19.10 contest

"Space Race has proved consistent and tactically versatile up to a mile and a half for James Leavy in the past couple of seasons, has an eye-catching jockey booking in the form of Barry Geraghty, and represents a yard who are enjoying a good time of things at present."

Another Wednesday night meeting at Punchestown where big fields are the order of the day, but the racing isn't as competitive as it would appear at first glance and we've come up with three selections...

The maiden hurdle for colts and geldings over two miles is due off at 19.10, and the maximum field can quickly be whittled down to just a handful of realistic contenders. Jessica Harrington looks to hold a particularly strong hand with both Seader and Space Race in the line up and it's the latter who makes more appeal, even though this will be his hurdling debut. He's proved consistent and tactically versatile up to a mile and a half for James Leavy in the past couple of seasons, has an eye-catching jockey booking in the form of Barry Geraghty, and represents a yard who are enjoying a good time of things at present.

Backing a horse like Won In The Dark (19.40) may not be everyone's cup of tea given his undoubted quirks, while his best recent efforts have come over considerably further than today's trip of two miles. However, all of the above means we should get a fair price about a horse who has easily the best form in the race and boasts a reasonable strike rate on the rare occasions when he's not been faced with a stiff task. Another positive is the the booking of Davy Russell, who has partnered Won In The Dark to his last three victories.

The handicap hurdle half an hour later looks a decidedly ordinary affair given the big-field and Bobby John rather stands out. He won a similar event at Cork in March in battling fashion before doing enough to suggest this revised mark isn't beyond him when fourth at Sligo, meeting trouble and storming home. This longer trip and stiffer track look right up his street and it would be a surprise were Bobby John to be out of the frame.

Recommendations

All at Punchestown

Back Space Race in the 19:10
Back Won In The Dark in the 19:40
Back Bobby John win and place in the 20:10

Click here to download a FREE TIMEFORM RACECARD for tonight's meeting at Punchestown.

Some of the fasted juvenile fillies seen out so far are on show in the Hillary Needler Trophy, which often has a major impact on the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot......

An above-average Beverley card is the target for tonight's placepot....

In a Royal wedding year, will the crowds at Epsom be cheering home a Derby winner owned by the reigning monarch? Timeform run the rule over the main contenders for the Blue Riband on June 4......


Betfair website