The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rose and Woods dominate the early Arnold Palmer market

“Justin Rose was very impressive, especially with the putter, and he leads the way on -7 but I can’t believe he can putt like he did yesterday for all four days and I’m more than happy with Tiger’s start.”

Steve's happy with his picks so far this week but he's quite keen for Kiradech Aphibarnrat to slow-up and slow-up soon. Read his early thoughts here...

12:30 - March 22, 2013
For the second day running, thunderstorms struck Kuala Lumpur and play has had to be suspended at the Maybank Malaysian Open. They failed to resume at all yesterday but today they were able to get back out and play eight or nine holes. They've now finally finished for the day and they'll be back first thing in the morning.

My only pre-event wager, Charl Schwartzel, has completed two rounds and he's tied for second with China's Ashun Wi, one behind Thailand's Kiradech Aphibarnrat on -10, who still has eight holes to play of round two.

In theory, Schwartzel should be favoured by the two breaks. Although he had a very long day today, finishing up round one before playing round two in its entirety, I fancy all the players on his side of the draw, i.e. those that started in the afternoon on day one, have life a little easier. The fact that Schwartzel hasn't had to do any waiting around today and that he'll get a nice lie-in tomorrow should be in his favour.

Those drawn in the morning on day one will have to come back first thing tomorrow to finish-up round two and then they'll then have to wait around for their tee-time in round three. Not ideal at all.

Schwartzel has already traded as short as 1.784/5, when he held a three shot lead, but a scruffy finish to round two (two bogeys in his last four holes) has seen his price drift back out to 2.809/5, with Aphibarnrat looking his biggest danger.

I backed the burly Thai, who's apparently also known as Anujit Hirunratanakorn (one mammoth mouthful of a name not enough?), three years ago in this event at a huge price, as well as in the 2011 renewal, so if he were to win this week, it would certainly grate but I stopped backing him after last year's Avantha Masters when he put in yet another poor effort in-contention.

He's a talent for sure but his record in-the-mix isn't great and he still has only one Asian Tour title to his name. That said, I can't pretend his presence isn't an annoyance and if he is going to mess up again I wish he'd get on with it!

I could wake up tomorrow and find Schwartzel's a long way back and that the event has been reduced to just 54 holes but I don't think there's much I can do about it. With the benefit of hindsight, I should have input a lay back of my stakes at odds-on but it's always easy afterwards and I'm just going to leave things alone for now.

Over in the States, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, according to the betting, it looks like a straight fight between just two players already, my man, Tiger Woods, now trading at 3.7511/4 and England's Justin Rose 3.9n/a.

Playing in the same morning three-ball yesterday, the pair opened their accounts for the week handsomely. Woods made three bogeys but still ended the day on three under-par, having played the par fives in five under, and as highlighted in the preview, that appears to be the key to success here.

Rose was very impressive, especially with the putter, and he leads the way on -7, two clear of John Huh and three ahead of both John Rollins and Brad Fritsch.

As the afternoon starters began tardily yesterday, I assumed that the advantage was with the early starters but as it transpired the late starters averaged a score of 73.15, compared to 73.85 in the morning. With barely any wind forecast today, Woods and co, playing in the afternoon today, shouldn't be inconvenienced and given how hard it is to make up ground in this event, the market could be right.

I can't believe Rose can putt like he did yesterday for all four days and I'm more than happy with Tiger's start, so for now, I'm leaving things alone here too.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-Event Selection:
Charl Schwartzel @ 7.413/2

Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Tiger Woods @ 4.216/5
Bubba Watson @ 38.037/1

* You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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US Masters Betting: Is it time to back resurgent Woods for the Masters?

"12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time."

After a stunning victory at Doral, Tiger Woods is all the rage with punters to land a fifth US Masters title next month. The odds are falling fast, but Paul Krishnamurty argues there's still plenty of way to go...

Its that special time of the punting year again, and I don't just mean the Cheltenham Festival. With less than a month before the season's first major, serious golf punters are trying to get ahead of the game by grabbing the early US Masters value. There is always trading mileage in predicting which way the market will move about each player as interest heightens.

Normally that would involve finding big-priced candidates likely to be gambled down, especially if they're fancied to perform well in the few events before Augusta. This time, however, the market dynamics may well result in most of the field drifting out as confidence builds behind the favourite.

Numerous thoughts whizzed around my brain over the weekend, watching Tiger Woods win his 17th WGC title. First, there was the most obvious cliche that form is temporary while class is permanent. On a more personal note, it was hard not to berate myself for not sticking to my own golden rules. Last year I'd successfully followed a plan to ignore Tiger outside his favourite events. Last month I abandoned it with disastrous effect at his second home, Torrey Pines. Having missed that boat, I couldn't bring myself to back him at Doral, even at tempting double-figure odds.

Then on Friday afternoon, ahead of the second round, I had a conversation with my esteemed colleague Steve Rawlings about the merits of his in-running bet on Tiger. I disagreed with him, citing numerous failures in contention from the post-scandal Tiger. Moreover, I just couldn't get poor performances at the World Matchplay, Abu Dhabi and Honda Classic out of my head. Needless to say, Steve was spectacularly right and I was wrong!

Of course, rather than cry over spilt milk, the plan must be to move forward and learn the lesson. I felt Tiger's performance at Doral may well have been his best and was certainly his most significant display since his personal life and career unravelled in 2009. He looked his old self, without weaknesses in any department.  Clearly at the very least the rules of last season should still apply.

Therefore, the next step is to restate which those favoured tracks and events are. Augusta must be on the shortlist, although in fairness I wouldn't bracket it with Torrey Pines, Firestone or St Andrews as courses where a Woods playing at 75% of his best is basically unbeatable. After all, if that were the case, he would have won there more recently than 2005. Nevertheless Tiger's Masters record is pretty awesome, winning four times and registering ten top-five finishes. Significantly, he didn't need to be anywhere near his best to make the top-six in every renewal between 2006 and 2011.

One course which must be listed alongside the aforementioned of ideal layouts is the one place where we'll see him before now and the Masters. Even last year, despite struggling to find form most weeks, Tiger landed a seventh title at Bay Hill, finishing seven shots ahead of third place. On all that historical evidence and last week's Doral form, Woods must be considered a good thing for next week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

If and when he wins an eighth title there, expect a further plunge on Tiger's odds for Augusta. In recent days, his Masters odds have shortened from 10.09/1 to 6.411/2 and there is plenty of way to go. 12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time. 

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Woods v McIlroy: Tiger has his claws out for Rory at Augusta

US Masters / Romilly Evans / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

McIlroy and Woods - a burgeoning rivalry

"McIlroy is more settled both professionally and personally. He's learned to trust his ability under the gun. This time round he won’t panic if he lets a stroke or two slip away."

Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?

A few months ago, many hacks were saying there was no way back for Tiger Woods and no stopping Rory McIlroy. Now, as the US Masters looms in to view, most of those same hacks are saying the only man who can stop Rory McIlroy is Tiger Woods. Golf can be a fickle game - and it seems to have fostered a press corps which reflects its very nature.

The truth, of course, is that Tiger has been on the way back for a while. All you had to do was look at his steadily improving game since the back-end of last year and the progress reports. Admittedly, the progress reports from the great man himself were subjective, but his fellow pros and practice partners all suggested he was on the verge of something great.

Those players included Arjun Atwal, Robert Allenby, Ernie Els and even Phil Mickelson - expert witnesses for the defence. All Woods needed was a win. And after a couple of near-misses, it came a fortnight back at Bay Hill where he blitzed a stellar field by five shots. The prosecution's case quickly folded and Woods was acquitted on charges of masquerading as the game's greatest.

Tiger was free to roam around his natural habitat of Augusta National. He was even re-installed as a firm favourite (currently available at [6.2] to back). However, a return to the good old days among these green Georgia pastures is by no means assured. The golfing landscape has changed and that's largely due to the emergence of McIlroy ([7.4] to back) a successful and hungry predator who has been stealthily stalking, waiting on the return of a healthy Tiger.

This time last year, McIlroy still had much to prove. His final-round implosion at Augusta was one of the biggest falls from grace in Masters history - and even left him languishing outside the top-ten. Rather than an Aladdin on the threshold of The Cave of Wonders, he was a young street rat struggling for survival and composure.

After the breakdown, though, came the breakthrough. And it arrived in quite spectacular fashion with his crowning procession at Congressional, leading from flag-fall to win by eight shots. The wunderkind had grown up. He hasn't looked back since, winning twice and finished no lower than third in nine of his last 12 events. His win at the Honda Classic, where he coolly staved off a charging Woods even handed him the number one ranking - making him its second-youngest incumbent (at 22) behind Tiger (21).

True, Luke Donald has borrowed top-dog status in the interim (as McIlroy took his now annual sabbatical to prepare for the Masters). But like Easter weekend itself, it's only lent. And speaking of Easter weekend, there can be no ignoring its propensity for comebacks from the dead. McIlroy, for his part, now has to deal with the Tiger's second coming. Not that the Ulsterman sounds concerned. "It's great for the game. I want to test myself against the best, at their best. And for me, that means going down the stretch with Tiger." Bring it on.

Of course, Woods' renaissance does provide the neat side-effect of deflecting some of the attention away from McIlroy. "I'm going in with a lot more scrutiny because of what happened last year," he continued. "It's just something that I'll have to deal with but Tiger's win certainly helps." In any case, McIlroy is a totally different proposition this term after a milestone 2011 campaign. He is more settled both professionally and personally and has learned to trust his ability under the gun. This time round he won't panic if he lets a stroke or two slip away.

Nevertheless, Woods remains the consummate and proven major performer with four Green Jackets and numerous close shaves. Which is probably why he can afford to sound the more phlegmatic of the pair. "Listen, I've gone into Augusta with wins and without wins. You're looking for one week, that's all. I understand how to play Augusta National. It's just a matter of executing the game plan."

That said, Tiger hasn't executed his gameplan since the 2008 US Open, marooned on 14 majors - four short of Jack Nicklaus' record haul. Time was when passing that mark was simply a matter of time. Now the man with time on his side isn't Woods but McIlroy. Tiger's very urgency could be the one thing that undoes his challenge this week.

Does that leave the door ajar for McIlroy? Well, yes and no. The trouble with contests billed as two-horse races is that a dark horse often arrives to spoil the party. Take this year's Gold Cup for example, a supposed straight duel between Kauto Star and Long Run. The result: one pulled up, the other finished third. Phil Mickelson, who can lay claim to the best course form of anyone in the field, is always a threat and will be popular with those who like to back the outsider of three. Then there's the small matter of the other 94 runners, many of whom are decidedly in-form.

However, what is for certain is that fans can rejoice in a burgeoning new rivalry that we looked set to miss out on. The express train to major greatness had asked Tiger to hop off at Platform 14 and picked up Rory in his place. It was a sliding doors moment. Praise be that the driver had a change of heart and let Tiger back on. Next stop: Augusta.

What will it take to win the year's first major? Our man takes a look at past results and key trends at Augusta National and he also gives the reasoning behind his eight selections......

A trio of American golfers make appeal in the top-10 finish market, says Paul Krishnamurty...

Many will contend, only one will win. Here are five players who can finish up the field to reward an investment in the top 20 finish market...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Woods looks the value now

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tiger Woods - a value price now, according to The Punter

“The [5.5] Tiger Woods trades at now looks better value than the [9.2] he started the week at but given he’ll feature in tonight’s live broadcast, it makes sense to wait and see how he’s playing. “

Our man's off to a poor start in Morocco, where they've only just started playing round two, but it's better news in Florida where both his picks start well, and he's got his eye on Tiger Woods too now...

15:10 - March 23, 2012

I thought I'd better post again, as I wouldn't want to put anyone away with my earlier comment about the draw bias in Morocco. Most surprisingly, the wind has dropped away to nothing and those on the course now are faring quite well.

14:10 - March 23, 2012

After yet another pants start by my picks at a European Tour event, I took the decision to go to the gym this morning and it was the best decision I've made so far with regards to the Trophee Hassan II. High winds suspended play all morning so I didn't miss a thing.

Best of my pre-event picks so far is Hennie Otto, who on -3, is four shots off the early pace set by Damien McGrane. It looked as though he was going to be in a much better place at one point though. With a hole to play his score read -6 but he made double-bogey on the 18th and had one of his earlier birdies changed to a par. An error on the European Tour website's leaderboard! Whatever next? I am, of course, being sarcastic. No doubt, next will be yet more scoring errors. I can't stress enough how careful you have to be when trading in-running on the European Tour, score changes are commonplace on their website.

To make matters worse with my picks, I'd written in my preview that I may well back Alex Noren if he continued to drift. Unfortunately he did just that and I added him to my portfolio at [60.0]. He shot two over par. And I can't say I'm too chuffed to see last week's fancy, Alejandro Canizares, bang there a week late either!

It looks likely that those drawn early - late are going to have a huge advantage now. Play has just restarted and the afternoon starters of yesterday, who should have played this morning, are out there now battling what's still a strong breeze. Those that played yesterday morning and that should have been out there now, are not likely to see any action today. Instead they'll start round two in the morning, where they're almost certain to encounter easier conditions.

I'm going to wait and see how things develop in Morocco now and focus my attentions on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where thankfully I fared a bit better on day one. It hasn't been without its frustrations though.

As I write, Bubba Watson, one of my two picks, has just missed a birdie putt from within four feet, and that's the third time he's missed from that distance already this week. That really doesn't bode well at all.

Watson and my only other pick, Sean O'Hair, both finished day one inside the top-10 after shooting three under par. Jason Dufner and Charlie Wi held the early lead after shooting three better. Tiger Woods equalled my guys' and with an afternoon start, I'll be keeping a very keen eye on him this evening. The [5.5] he trades at now looks better value than the [9.2] he started the week at but given he'll feature in tonight's live broadcast, it makes sense to wait and see how he's playing.

Trophee Hassan II Pre-Event Selections:
Rhys Davies @ [60.0]
Alex Noren @ [60.0]
Hennie Otto @ [70.0]
Julien Quesne @ [85.0]
Michael Hoey @ [85.0]
Eduardo De La Riva @ [130.0]

Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Bubba Watson @ [32.0]
Sean O'Hair @ [95.0]

Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, looks forward to the year's first major, highlighting trends to follow and pitfalls to avoid at the US Masters...

With so little course form to go on, Steve looks to last week for the bulk of his five selections at this week's Race To Dubai event......

The Punter takes a look at this week's PGA Tour event, where Tiger Woods bids to win his seventh Arnold Palmer Invitational......

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US Masters: Why Tiger Woods remains overrated

General / Ralph Ellis / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ralph won't be backing Tiger at Augusta

"In the Tiger Specials market he’s [1.27] to go through 2012 without getting any closer to his dream of catching the 18 majors of his boyhood idol Jack Nicklaus."

Tiger Woods has enjoyed a mini-resurgence of late and remains a popular in the Betfair markets. However, Ralph Ellis doesn't believe the former-world number is worth backing this spring...

Often it seems we enjoy knocking down the heroes we have so lovingly built up. But that theory doesn't apply to Tiger Woods.

It is more than two years now since the fateful Friday night when the life of the greatest golfer of the 21st century began to unravel, yet still most people can't accept that he has returned to the ranks of the mere mortals.

His game probably hit rock bottom last year when he dropped out of the world's top 50, and since then he's been slowly and solidly rebuilding. He won the World Golf Challenge - his own charity event - shared third at Abu Dhabi at the start of the 2012 season and was then second in the Honda Classic after shooting a 62 on Sunday. Yesterday he was producing a decent round alongside Justin Rose in the Tavistock Cup on behalf of the Albany Golf community in the Bahamas that he helped to build and finance.

He has climbed back to number 18 in the latest rankings, and it's a decent enough run of form, but that's about the right word: 'decent'. You could find other adjectives like 'solid', 'respectable', 'promising', or 'reasonable'. But they are the sort of way that somebody like Bo Van Pelt in 25th place is used to being described. For a man like Woods, who has lived his life with superlatives, none of them have the resonance of the way the Tiger of old was spoken of in exalted terms.
Yet the Woods aura remains. He is [9.2] favourite to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. And he's second favourite at [9.6] behind Rory McIlroy in the betting for The Masters. For the life of me I can't understand why.

He's only just recovering from yet another injury, and while the latest Achilles problem might have come and gone relatively quickly it is still a sign that his overall physical fitness isn't right. He's going from one minor problem to another and that's no shape to be in ahead of a gruelling four day walk round Augusta.

What's worse there's another storm about to break across his personal life, with revelations from a kiss and tell book by former coach Hank Haney about some of the reasons behind his failed marriage. It brands him selfish and arrogant, a man so isolated from others that if he went to the fridge to get an ice pop he'd never get one for his coach at the same time.

The advance publicity suggests it will be a pretty tawdry volume. Having seen some exerts I'm not sure I'd bother to get Haney an ice pop either. Tiger has already said he 'won't waste my time reading it'. That's as may be, but he will find himself having to waste his time answering questions about some of the stories the book contains, and none of that is going to help a man trying to win his first Major since that amazing US Open in 2008.

Betfair's punters know that really. In the Tiger Specials market he's [1.27] to go through 2012 without getting any closer to his dream of catching the 18 majors of his boyhood idol Jack Nicklaus. But still the hope lingers that the old magic will return. It seems we know we will wait in vain - but we still won't stop waiting.

Five things you might not know about Bo Van Pelt

1. Born May 1975 in Richmond, Indiana, his father Bob was drafted for the NFL by the Philadelphia Eagles after a successful college American Football career

2. As a college golfer at Oklahoma State he got bored with the game and gave away his clubs - thankfully after three months he had a change of heart and the college coach Mike Holder found him some new ones.

3. He always insists on marking his own ball rather than letting his caddie do it - but always uses the ball marker on his glove because he hates to carry nickels in his pocket.

4. He's only ever won one PGA Tour event - in Milaukee in 2009 - but his career earnings top 13 million dollars.

5. He promotes a new range of clothing branded Alial Fital and designed by his friend retired NFL quarterback Gibran Hamdan.

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Romilly Evans muses over the apparent difficulty in closing out golf events from the final-round lead....

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Donald out. Woods to follow?

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tiger Woods and Nick Watney - who will have the last laugh today?

“Jason Day wasn’t on the ropes, he was on the canvas and the count was fast approaching ten!”

Our man gets five out of eight through to day two, after Jason Day is matched at 999-1! But who does he fancy to make it through to day three?

11.20 - February 23, 2012

A pretty typical WGC Match Play day one really, all wrapped up in unfathomable TV coverage.

There were countless shots of play by one player only, with no reference to their opponents whatsoever. For example, in the Adam Scott - Robert Rock match we saw Scott tee off on the 15th, we saw him chip out of the desert, chip onto the green and even attempt his par putt but what Rock was up to remained a mystery. It made for frustrating viewing.

I know it must be really tough to keep tabs on 32 different ties but some of their match choices were very odd. Obviously, we saw much of the Tiger Woods - Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano match but for some bizarre reason we kept being shown coverage of the Freddy Jacobsen -Robert Karlsson tie, which was as good as all-over before they reached the turn anyway. My guess is that Sky was receiving the Swedish TV feed in error!

And I was on tenterhooks over the K.J Choi-Kyle Stanley match as it approached its conclusion but I didn't get to see the finish. The result just came up on screen. Mercifully, it went my way with Stanley winning 2 & 1, but why we didn't see any of the play on 17 instead of watching Karlsson go five up with six to play is anyone's guess?

Anyway, that's more than enough moaning about the TV coverage; I'm starting to irritate myself now!

It was, as it invariable is each year, a day which contained a few first round shocks, with Ernie Els' thrashing of Luke Donald (5 & 4) arguably the biggest. Ian Poulter crashing out to Sang-Moon Bae was certainly unexpected too but the day will be remembered more for the amount of turnarounds.

Jim Furyk let Dustin Johnson off the hook, messing up the last in regulation when one up, before making a right pig's ear of the 2nd in extra time after Dustin had driven into the desert! And Bill Haas lost his match against Ryo Ishikawa after being thee up with five to play but the biggest turnaround came in the Jason Day - Rafael Cabrera-Bello match...

I confess, having already seen Zach Johnson and Justin Rose get beat, and with Ben Crane about to join them I was a bit fed up to say the least at one stage last night. Kyle Stanley was on the ropes, having gone from two up to one down in his match and Jason Day wasn't on the ropes, he was on the canvas and the count was fast approaching ten! It looked highly likely that my two main fancies were going out and that of my eight picks I was going to be left with just three but then Stanley turned his match round and Cabrera-Bello choked big style.

Three down with three to play was a desperate situation for Day to be in and he was matched at the maximum of [1000.0], albeit only for a couple of quid. There was more available and I looked and looked at it without taking any but I'm not moaning. I am grateful though - Cabrera-Bello saw the winning line and dodged it, bogeying the last three to relinquish his lead and there was an air of inevitability about Day's birdie on the first extra hole to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

I've had two in-running plays so far and I'm waiting for a third to be matched. I've now got Nick Watney onside at [32.0]; as I fancy he could well get past Woods and Stanley's section has opened up nicely with Donald and Scott both going out so I've had a modest top-up on him. I'm also trying to back Y.E Yang. I'm partially matched at [65.0] and hopeful that I'll get the rest matched before kick-off.

Rory McIlroy [11.5], who himself very nearly mucked up his first round match against George Coetzee, now heads the market, narrowly over Lee Westwood at [12.5]. Martin Kaymer is [14.5] and so is Tiger Woods. After an unconvincing performance against Gonzo, Woods is merely a point shorter than he was before the off.

The two eye-catching ties of round two are Tiger Woods against Nick Watney and Kyle Stanley against Brad Snedeker. The Watney -Woods match up looks really tight but I quite fancy Watney to prevail, especially if Tiger performs as poorly as he did yesterday. The Stanley - Snedeker match is interesting as it's a chance for Stanley to avenge his playoff defeat to Snedeker at the recent Farmers Insurance Open. Fingers crossed.

Getting five of eight pre-event picks through to day two is more than acceptable, with the Day turnaround being the big obvious plus. I'll be hoping for a similar sort of day today and I'll back tomorrow with a look at where to go next.

WGC Match Play pre-event picks:
Jason Day @ [38.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [60.0]
Justin Rose @ [80.0]
Ben Crane @ [85.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [95.0]
Zach Johnson @ [120.0]
Francesco Molinari [130.0]

In-running plays:
Kyle Stanley @ [30.0]
Nick Watney @ [32.0]
Y.E Yang @ [65.0] (only partially matched as at 11.00am Thursday)

It may not be topping the bill this week but The Punter thinks the Mayakoba Classic offers up a great bet. Read his preview here......

With a strategy involving finger crossing, The Punter's not overly confident as he looks at this week's matchplay extravaganza......

Golf fans were treated to an exciting finale to the Northern Trust Open but was the result any good for The Punter?...

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The Punter's De-Brief: Woods fades as Lefty shines

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson after his fourth Pebble Beach success

“As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable. “

Phil Mickelson wins the AT & T Pebble Beach National as Tiger Woods falters in the mix once more. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's events here...

It all came down to putting at the Dubai Desert Classic - Raphael Cabrera-Bello rolled in the vital ones, particularly for birdie on the 17th, whilst Lee Westwood missed chance after chance and the Spaniard prevailed by one to win his second title, following his win at the Austria Open in 2009.

In the States, Phil Mickelson played some inspired stuff to claim his third AT & T Pebble Beach title in eight years and his fourth in total. For the third week in-a-row on the PGA Tour someone had entered the final round with a substantial lead, only to let it slip. This week it was the turn of Charlie Wi. The Korean four-putted the first green to make double-bogey and was always up against it after that. To his credit, he rallied to claim second place, birdying the last three holes.

My Bets
I entered the weekend with very high hopes in Dubai with both Thomas Bjorn and Martin Kaymer right in the thick of it but by the time they'd played three holes on Sunday I knew I had no chance. In stark contrast, I entered the final round at the AT & T with very little hope of turning the week's fortunes around and then up popped Lefty - backed before the off at [26.0].

Few things in life give me greater pleasure than watching Mickelson in full flow when I've backed him and his eight under par 64 was a joy to watch. There were par saves from 20 feet plus, a tee-shot to within a few feet, an eagle and birdies aplenty. This was vintage Lefty and not for the first time it came from almost nowhere.

I layed plenty of my wager back, at all rates down from [1.88] to [1.01], but it was a tremendous result and one I'll remember for a long time.

Players to swerve
I'd highlighted Lee Westwood's record when he's right in the mix yesterday and it makes for even worse reading today. Incredibly, he's now zero from twelve when he's either tied for the lead, leading by one, or trailing by one, going into the final round. If he's built up a decent lead, like he did recently at both the Thailand Golf Championship and Nedbank Challenge, he's able to coast home but without clear water between himself and the field, he seems to struggle. As already stated, his putting yesterday was dreadful and I fancy nerves have something to do with that and he remains one to treat with caution when bang in-contention on a Sunday.

Only two weeks ago I wrote "There is a slight chance that the ruthless and clinical closer that Woods once was is a thing of the past and he may just be worth taking on at short odds the next time he finds himself in with a good chance. I fancy he's bound to be shorter than he should be." So who did I fancy as the danger at the AT & T with a round to go? Tiger Woods.

Apart from a short spell on Friday, Mickelson hadn't impressed and I fancied the leaders, Wi and Ken Duke might struggle and that Woods looked a fair price at around [3.85]. Mercifully, I didn't back him because he was quite frankly abysmal. Where's the old Tiger gone? As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable.

I'm sure those that followed Paul Krishnamurty's advice and layed Tiger in both the top-five and top-ten markets had resigned themselves to paying out but the once mighty Woods was so bad yesterday that his three over par 75 saw him slip from third place to 15th to put his layers in clover.

What have we learnt for next year?
Don't back Rory McIlroy over the weekend in Dubai, a pattern has definitely emerged. In each of the last four years he's started off like a rocket but when he gets to the weekend the rocket starts malfunctioning. Even when he won the event in 2009 there were stumbles over the last two days and he's worth taking on if he starts well again next year. As to why it happens? He often starts to tread water when he hits the front early in tournaments but I think there's more to it than that here. The course changes considerably as the week goes on. The smallest change in wind speeds changes the yardages significantly and the greens vary in speed from one day to the next and I'm not sure he's able to adapt as well as he should. We've all seen what he's capable off in benign conditions but I still have my doubts about him when it's not so easy.

The Race to Dubai moves from the Middle East to India this week with the Avantha Masters, where Cabrera-Bello will be attempting to go back-to-back. Whilst in the States, a first-rate field, including world number one Luke Donald, lines up at Riviera for the Northern Trust Open. I'll be back tomorrow with previews of both events.

Steve's out of the game as they close out the event in Dubai so he's taken a good look at the state of play in California where Tiger looks the man to beat......

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?...

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Tiger Woods will miss the cut at the Frys.com Open

Golf Bets / The Betfair Contrarian / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Prepare to see Tiger grimacing plenty on Thursday and Friday

"Tiger no longer backs up his confidence on the fairways, going two years without a win, and if anything the results are getting worse rather than better."

The greatest golfer of this generation is fit, in form and ready to go - or so we were told - but after a string of poor performances we say he won't even make it to the weekend at the Frys.com Open

There's hope that Tiger Woods has finally completed his seemingly endless run up to the comeback trail after hiring a new caddy in Joe LaCava and setting a new course record of 62 practising at the Medalist Golf Club in Florida. This isn't the first time that the Contrarian has been warned that Tiger is back though. In fact, he has heard it so often over the last year or two that he is now immune to all of the excitement. He's advising you to treat his latest attempt to bounce back with similar disdain, especially as there are odds of [3.75] available on him failing to make the cut...

There are no legitimate signs of improvement
Woods talks a good game before each tournament that he enters, but then that has never been a problem for the 14-time major champion. The issue is that he no longer backs up his confidence on the fairways, going two years without a win, and if anything the results are getting worse rather than better. He has missed the cut of three competitions in the last 27 months, having fared that badly just three times in almost 12 years prior to that, and whereas in 2010, he was a frequent fixture in the top-25 of events, he has placed that highly in only three of the eight he has completed in 2011.

He was cut last time out
You have to go back just two months to find the last example of Woods heading into a tournament with high hopes of a return to greatness, targeting victory in the PGA Championship. However, on that occasion it proved woefully misguided as his participation was ended prematurely after two rounds of 77 and 73 left him ten over par. That was the first time in his career that he was forced to put his clubs in the boot halfway through the final major of the year, in his 14th entry in the competition.

It can take a while to gel with a new caddy
Woods will be aware that in LaCava he is getting an experienced and well-regarded caddy following his triumphs with friend Fred Couples, but relationships between golfers and bagmen can be slow off the mark. Indeed, LaCava endured high-profile early disappointments with Couples, failing to make the cut at the 1990 US Open, and Dustin Johnson, missing it at this year's PGA Championship. Clearly, the Frys.com Open isn't on anywhere near the same level as those majors, indeed it's an event Woods wouldn't even be involved in were it not for his slump. However, it a hugely significant moment in his season, the chance to show that the personnel change has had a positive impact on his form and bid to end his drought in a competition that he is surprisingly the [7.0] favourite to win.

His Medalist success is almost irrelevant
The aforementioned feat of the former world number one - now 51 in the rankings - in setting a new record at the Medalist Golf Course was no doubt encouraging, but there is a big difference between performing in a non-competitive environment at your home course and delivering in a tournament, especially one that you have never played in before. The Contrarian made the mistake of reading too much into his practice displays, which were earning rave reviews, before last year's Masters and US Open, yet on the key weekend when it mattered most, he was unable to meet expectations both times.

Tiger returns this week but he doesn't make Dan Geraghty's trio in his Three Against the Field column for the Frys.com Open...

This week's Madrid Masters has yet another new venue, but Mike Norman believes the course will play perfectly into the hands of a trio of big-hitters....

The next four weeks on the European Tour are all about Spain and Portugal which allows Paul Krishnamurty to pick out six players who have played well there in the past or who arrive at the Madrid Masters in particularly...

Two proven performers on the world stage can boost themselves up the money list with a strong showing at the Frys.com Open, denying Tiger Woods and helping us to a handy profit, says Paul Krishnamurty...

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US Master 2011: Should Tiger Woods be favourite?

US Masters / Mike Norman / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments

Tiger Woods is the favourite to win this year’s US Masters and claim his fifth green jacket

"In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger’s stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour – that’s almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning form here."

Mike Norman has been quite vocal in opposing Tiger Woods since he returned to the game, and now he is pleading for your help to explain why the great man is favourite to win next week's US Masters.

There aren't many people who have lived in the world who are instantly recognisable by name to almost every adult human being. Elvis Presley and Michael Jackson were two such people, and perhaps also are Princess Diana and Marilyn Monroe. And from the sporting world we can add the likes of Pele and Muhammad Ali to that list.

And of course, who hasn't heard of Tiger Woods?

Even my girlfriend has heard of Tiger, and she is someone who knows so little about what's going on in the world that she still thinks a Chilean miner is a kid that hasn't wrapped up properly!

Now, unless you were on a different planet a year ago you'll know that Mr Woods went through a pretty traumatic time off the golf course. But what about on the golf course? If you're not an avid follower of golf, but like so many people you love having a punt on the US Masters (it's how I got into golf betting), then Tiger will be the first name that springs to mind. You'll notice that he is still ranked amongst the world's top-five players, you'll remember that he has a fantastic record round Augusta National, and you'll see that he is the current [10.0] favourite to don his fifth green jacket next Sunday evening.

But the picture I've just painted above is very murky; a much clearer picture is painted below.

The Official Golf World Rankings are calculated on a player's previous two years of performances, so in Tiger's case, his five PGA Tour wins (and three second place finishes) between June 2009 and news breaking about his personal life are calculated in the rankings you see today.

Since Tiger returned to golfing action this time last year he has very rarely hit the heights he did pre-scandal. In fact, based on his performances in 2010 alone Tiger ranked number 41 in the world for that calendar year. And it doesn't get any better this year. So far in 2011, more than 75 players have accumulated more ranking points than Tiger. Effectively then, the great man - who is currently ranked number five in the world remember - is languishing somewhere outside the world's top 50 if you compile a list based on everyone's performances from January 2010 onwards.

So what about course form? Some will argue - me included - that course form is vital in golf betting. But the key is that it is only vital when a golfer is playing to a similar standard as at the time when a certain course gave him an edge. Tiger is not playing to the standard he was 18 months ago - nowhere near it in fact - so therefore his previous record at the Masters is easily overlooked. In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger's stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour - that's almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning scores in Georgia.

And remember, Tiger also has an incredible record at Firestone Country Club (seven wins) and at Bay Hill (six wins), but in his current guise he finished 78th and 24th respectively at those venues.

Tiger's personal problems have undoubtedly contributed to his regression, and whether or not he brought those problems on himself, I will never criticise him for that. What many will criticise him for however is his decision to change his golf swing. True, it's not the finished article yet but Tiger is driving the ball appallingly at times. He ranks just 187th in Driving Accuracy, one of the key stats you look at when selecting a likely US Masters winner.

And of the other key stats required next week Tiger ranks just 105th in Putting - for so many years the strongest part of his game - and 135th in Sand Saves.

Put simply, Tiger is normal again. He is about the 50th best player in the world on form shown since early last year; he is averaging close to 12 shots per tournament worse than his previous winning US Masters scores; he has recently played poorly at venues where he was previously brilliant; he hasn't won in 20 competitive tournaments; and his 2011 PGA Tour stats don't inspire any confidence whatsoever.

Yet Tiger Woods is the [10.0] favourite to win one of the most hotly-contested golf tournaments of the season. I'm relying on you good people to please tell me why.

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

Dan Fitch takes a look at the golfers who made winning majors into a habit....

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Kaymer v Woods v Westwood: Who will be the desert king?

Golf Bets / Joe Dyer / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

A relaxed Kaymer can beat his faltering opponents

"Of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer."

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?

Golf fans get a breakfast-time treat when the top three in the world rankings tee it up at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning.

It could be a battle royale, it could be a massive letdown, but there is bound to be massive interest at 8:20am UK time when Tiger Woods (no.3), Martin Kaymer (no.2) and Lee Westwood (no.1) compete for bragging rights in the desert heat.

In truth, of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer - and the market reflects that with the rising German star priced at [2.7] to emerge with the best first round score. Woods is next in the betting at [2.98] with Westwood the [3.25] outsider.

The 26-year-old already has a tournament win this year (three weeks ago in Abu Dhabi) while his more experienced opponents have struggled so far - Westwood missing the cut at the Qatar Masters, while Woods laboured to an unimpressive 44th place finish at his favourite Torrey Pines track two weeks ago.

In terms of course form each man has a reason to back him - Woods is a previous winner, Westwood last year's runner-up while Kaymer has finished second, fourth and fourth in the last three years.

The German has shown an aptitude for repeating good performances at courses he enjoys and that, coupled with his current form, make him the bet at [2.7].

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?...

The top three golfers in the world are in action on the European Tour this week and Mike Norman believes Lee Westwood can prove why he's top of the tree....

The big man with a big swing is Dan Geraghty's headline tip in this week's Three Against the Field column...

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Only punters fear Tiger Woods these days...

Tiger Woods / Ralph Ellis / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tiger pictured not enjoying himself during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open

"The only people scared of Tiger now appear to be punters. How else do you explain that, after a year without winning a tournament, he’s already been installed as favourite for every single Major of 2011?"

Tiger's turmoil continued on the weekend with a 44th place finish at a venue, Torrey Pines, where he was previously impregnable. And yet he is still odds on for a major win in 2011, says a shocked Ralph Ellis

On holiday in Spain I once found myself playing what must have been the world's only 13 hole golf course. Unlucky in more ways than one. It wasn't meant to be that way. It had been built, snaking through beautiful orange groves, with 18 challenging holes surrounded by luxury villas.

Sadly for the people who had moved there with promises of a golden retirement the money for maintenance ran out, the developers disappeared, and the only solution had been to leave some of the greens to go wild.

If they are still there, the remaining residents can feel proud of that this morning - or at least compared to the first ever Tiger Woods-designed golfing centre in Dubai. There, it appears, only six holes have been completed on what was meant to be a 1.1billion dollar development. Word is that not only are they abandoning the rest of the plan, but will stop watering what has been built. In six months the desert will take over again.

That's bad news for the people who had already put down deposits to secure the mansions which were designed to overlook the fairways. But it just about sums up how the world of Woods has come crashing down in little more than 12 months since that early hours car accident which blew open the whole charade of his private life.

It seems he's been in therapy, both for his life and his golf swing, ever since. And so far nothing seems to have halted the decline either off or on the course. He's even more surly than ever, this weekend even refusing to answer straightforward questions about his schedule. And after finishing tied in 44th place in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines there's no sign of his ability to win coming back either.

The man who once intimidated everyone who found themselves drawn to play him was even put in the shade by Venezuala's rising star Jhonattan Vegas.

The only people scared of Tiger now appear to be punters. How else do you explain that, after a year without winning a tournament, he's already been installed as favourite for every single Major of 2011? All logic says that's a bargain chance to lay him, and also to take the near even money [1.95] on offer in Betfair's Tiger Specials market for him to win no Majors at all.

Amazingly he's as short as [5.9] for The Masters, while the man who has taken over as world number one Lee Westwood is [15.0]. Last year's winner Phil Mickelson is nearly twice the price at [10.0]. Paul Casey, who picked up his first trophy of the season by calmly holing an eight foot putt on the last in Bahrain, is [34.0].

All the evidence says the Tiger era is over. Sadly his reality is that, just like that unfinished development in the Dubai desert, he doesn't appear capable any longer of putting more than six good holes together.

Five things you might not know about Jhonattan Vegas
1. Born in the Venezualan capital of Maturin in August 1984, dad Carlos and mum Mauritza did the catering on a nine-hole golf course built for American oil workers.
2. He was four years old when his grandfather taught him to play the game using a broomstick and a rock
3. He left home aged 17 to seek his fortune in North America - his father forbade him from attending a baseball game for fear he would be trampled by the crowds
4. He won a golf scholarship to the University of Texas where a local property developer Dick Kemp became his legal guardian to help subsidise his progress. Kemp has now taken the same role for Jhonattan's younger brother Julio who also plays golf at the University
5. He spoke only ten words of English when first moving to America, but has completed his university degree in Kinesiology, the science of human movement

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