The Betfair Contrarian: Why Ireland will beat France

General / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ireland need Jonathan Sexton to be at his best if the Contrarian's bet is to come in

"Ireland reacted to all of their previous five Six Nations reverses (and nine of their last ten ) with victories; France and England (twice) were among those to feel their wrath in that stretch."

After success last week backing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, the Contrarian is confident of following it up with a rugby triumph. He's spotted Ireland at a massive [4.6] to win away to France in the Six Nations on Saturday, and thinks that there's a formidable case for backing them despite their poor record in Paris...

France are without their kicking king

Ireland couldn't have asked for a bigger boost in the build-up to Saturday's encounter than the news that France's chief kicker Dimitri Yachvili will sit it out with a back injury. The experienced scrum-half was their top points scorer at last year's World Cup, racking up an impressive tally of 39, and carried that form into their Six Nations opener against Italy, in which his ten-point haul accounted for a third of their overall total in the match. The Biarritz star is indeed so prolific that he was flagged up by Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood as his pre-tournament fancy to be top points scorer, so his likely replacement on kicking duties, Morgan Parra, has some hefty boots to fill.

Their World Cup hangover is yet to kick in

The Contrarian has discussed before the frequency with which Europe's top World Cup performers follow the feat with a shambolic Six Nations campaign, and after reaching the final in New Zealand, this France side are on course to become the latest high-profile flops. The last time that Les Bleus were World Cup runners-up was in 1999 and a few months later they lost two Six Nations home games, one of which as you've probably guessed came against Ireland. New coach Philippe Saint-Andre was victorious in his first match last week, though little can be read into that win given that it came at home to Italy, who have finished bottom of the last four editions and tasted defeat in 14 of their last 16 outings in the competition.

Might trick me once...

Whereas France got their Six Nations challenge off to a much-anticipated winning start, Ireland were beaten 21-23 by Wales in Dublin in a tie that they were leading with two minutes to go. However, don't expect them to dwell on that setback or give up on top spot with four fixtures still to play. Ireland have taken the title just once this century, compared to France's five, England's four and Wales' two, but they have the second best overall record in that period, thanks in part to their ability to recover from any setback. They reacted to all of their previous five Six Nations reverses (and nine of their last ten ) with victories; France and England (twice) were among those to feel their wrath in that stretch.

Ireland prefer life on the road

That potentially costly defeat to Wales was Ireland's third in four Six Nations home games, the move to the Aviva Stadium evidently not having had the desired effect. The flip side of that alarming trend is that a lot of their most inspiring work is produced on their travels, where they have won six of their last eight in the Six Nations. Recent results away to Les Bleus haven't been as uplifting, though encouragement can be found in the fact that they are getting closer. Declan Kidney's team restricted them to only one try last year in Bordeaux compared to a combined 24 on their six prior visits. They suffered a 19-12 loss on that occasion, but a whopping 14 of those French points were provided by absentee Yachvili.

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Round one of the Six Nations is over, so what have we learned about the sides and how should results inform next weekend's bets? Richard O'Hagan reports....

Dream start for Stuart Lancaster's inexperienced team as Scotland are left to rue errors and indecisiveness once again......

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Tiger Woods will miss the cut at the Frys.com Open

Golf Bets / The Betfair Contrarian / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Prepare to see Tiger grimacing plenty on Thursday and Friday

"Tiger no longer backs up his confidence on the fairways, going two years without a win, and if anything the results are getting worse rather than better."

The greatest golfer of this generation is fit, in form and ready to go - or so we were told - but after a string of poor performances we say he won't even make it to the weekend at the Frys.com Open

There's hope that Tiger Woods has finally completed his seemingly endless run up to the comeback trail after hiring a new caddy in Joe LaCava and setting a new course record of 62 practising at the Medalist Golf Club in Florida. This isn't the first time that the Contrarian has been warned that Tiger is back though. In fact, he has heard it so often over the last year or two that he is now immune to all of the excitement. He's advising you to treat his latest attempt to bounce back with similar disdain, especially as there are odds of [3.75] available on him failing to make the cut...

There are no legitimate signs of improvement
Woods talks a good game before each tournament that he enters, but then that has never been a problem for the 14-time major champion. The issue is that he no longer backs up his confidence on the fairways, going two years without a win, and if anything the results are getting worse rather than better. He has missed the cut of three competitions in the last 27 months, having fared that badly just three times in almost 12 years prior to that, and whereas in 2010, he was a frequent fixture in the top-25 of events, he has placed that highly in only three of the eight he has completed in 2011.

He was cut last time out
You have to go back just two months to find the last example of Woods heading into a tournament with high hopes of a return to greatness, targeting victory in the PGA Championship. However, on that occasion it proved woefully misguided as his participation was ended prematurely after two rounds of 77 and 73 left him ten over par. That was the first time in his career that he was forced to put his clubs in the boot halfway through the final major of the year, in his 14th entry in the competition.

It can take a while to gel with a new caddy
Woods will be aware that in LaCava he is getting an experienced and well-regarded caddy following his triumphs with friend Fred Couples, but relationships between golfers and bagmen can be slow off the mark. Indeed, LaCava endured high-profile early disappointments with Couples, failing to make the cut at the 1990 US Open, and Dustin Johnson, missing it at this year's PGA Championship. Clearly, the Frys.com Open isn't on anywhere near the same level as those majors, indeed it's an event Woods wouldn't even be involved in were it not for his slump. However, it a hugely significant moment in his season, the chance to show that the personnel change has had a positive impact on his form and bid to end his drought in a competition that he is surprisingly the [7.0] favourite to win.

His Medalist success is almost irrelevant
The aforementioned feat of the former world number one - now 51 in the rankings - in setting a new record at the Medalist Golf Course was no doubt encouraging, but there is a big difference between performing in a non-competitive environment at your home course and delivering in a tournament, especially one that you have never played in before. The Contrarian made the mistake of reading too much into his practice displays, which were earning rave reviews, before last year's Masters and US Open, yet on the key weekend when it mattered most, he was unable to meet expectations both times.

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Alberto Contador won't win the Tour de France

Tour De France / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Contador's off field problems give him a mountain to climb if he is to win a fourth Tour

"Andy Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador’s 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event."

The latest super Spaniard in the saddle is odds-on to beat the near 200-strong field home but that's a price you should be laying, says the Betfair Contrarian

Back when Lance Armstrong was in his pomp the Contrarian was instead busy predicting that DJ Pied Piper would be the best thing to happen to music since Spandau Ballet, and so never had the slightly intimidating pleasure of writing "Juan Pelota" off. This latest assignment feels just as daunting, however, as Alberto Contador has triumphed on the last three occasions that he has contested the Tour de France, yet the Contrarian reckons you should lay him for a fourth title at [1.71]. Here's why...

Contador has a monumental distraction...
For years, the Tour de France's appeal has been tarnished by doping suspicions and the problem won't be eradicated any time soon given that the Tour's holder is competing in the shadow of a failed drugs test in last year's edition. He was later banned because his sample was found to contain traces of clenbuterol, only to be controversially cleared by the Spanish authorities, who accepted his claim that the low concentration levels made food contamination the likely source. The Union Cycliste International were understandably furious and turned to the Court of Arbitration, though in a twist that does the sport's credibility no favours, the case was put back from June, allowing him to compete. Yet while Contador gets the opportunity to fight for a fourth win, the whispering campaign that will accompany his involvement and worries about the upcoming court showdown are sure to compromise his performance.

...and has shown signs of suffering
Contador's performance in the Volta ao Algarve and Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, two events that he won in 2010, provide further evidence that off-road troubles are affecting his cycling. This time round he finished a distant fourth in Portugal and all the way back in 24th in his homeland, where he was hampered by several punctures.

Schleck is a worthy adversary
Now that they no longer enter the Eurovision Song Contest, in which they impressively remain the joint-second most successful nation, Luxembourg need to look elsewhere for opportunities to shine on a global stage. The Tour de France is an obvious substitute, given that they have provided four winners in the highlight of the cycling calendar. The last of those was Charly Gaul in 1958 but it looks to be a matter of time before 26-year-old Andy Schleck becomes the fifth, and there is no reason why this won't prove to be his year at [3.5]. He fared better in his first appearance in the race than his main rival, ranking 12th to the Spaniard's 31st, and has built on that with two second-placed finishes, claiming the white jersey that is awarded to the best young rider on all three occasions.

The gap is narrower than ever
On Schleck's Tour de France debut in 2008, he finished over 11 minutes behind champion Carlos Sastre (Contador didn't participate in the race) despite topping the Young Riders' Classification, yet 12 months later he was within five minutes of Contador as the latter claimed his second title, before trailing by only 39 seconds as El Pistolero completed his hat-trick last July. Those figures illustrate that Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador's 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event. It is no surprise therefore that Schleck's Leopard Trek manager Brian Nygaard is confident of his star turn delivering.

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why England will win the European Under-21 Championship

Under 21 European Championships / The Betfair Contrarian / 06 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can this man lead England to glory in a major football competition?

"England have two players with 25 or more games under their belt, whereas Spain’s longest server is Diego Capel with 20, while there is also more stability at the top with Pearce now in his fifth year in charge. Spanish coach Luis Milla took over just last summer."

Arise Sir Stuart of Pearce! Psycho's knighthood is in the bag according to the Contrarian who is backing England to win a tournament in the sport known as soccer, is he off his rocker?!!! Judge for yourself by reading these four finely crafted arguments...

England's Under-21s haven't won the European Under-21 Championship since 1984, when incidentally they overcame the country perceived to be standing in their way on this occasion, Spain, in the final. However, after missing out on glory so narrowly in Sweden in 2009, the Contrarian is confident of a successful return to Scandinavia as they head to Denmark. Here's why he recommends that you should snap up the [5.3] on Stuart Pearce putting himself in contention for a knighthood...

England came so close last time
It's not unheard of for the runners-up of the previous European Under-21 Championship to claim victory in the final of the following tournament, with it proving a more frequent occurrence than in either the senior equivalent or the World Cup. England's chances of becoming the fourth side to go from losing finalists to winners in the space of two years have to be fancied even more because holders Germany and semi-finalists Sweden and Italy all failed to qualify.

Surprise champions are a rarity
While the presence of Iceland and Belarus in the competition's final eight will shock many, the likelihood of either actually taking the trophy is incredibly slim given the regularity with which the European Under-21 Championship is won by one of the continent's traditional power players. There have been ten instalments over the last 20 years, with Italy winning five, Holland two and Spain and Germany one. The one slight surprise was Czech Republic in 2002, though that was a bit of a freak as they triumphed in only two of their five matches, while they had an unusually strong squad, with Petr Cech, Zdenek Grygera and Milan Baros among those at their disposal. Of this year's participants, just Spain and England are in the top 20 of FIFA's senior world rankings, so the rarity of underdog success indicates that one of them will be crowned champions.

The Young Lions are a well-oiled unit...
At a level where the pool of players changes at an alarming rate, it is difficult to get a team operating as a cohesive unit because of the constant need to rebuild, so the fact that the England players have more experience of working in tandem than their main rivals is a considerable boost. Eleven of the 23 players named in the Young Lions' squad are in double figures when it comes to caps, compared to eight for favourites Spain [3.1] and Group A's shortest-priced nation Switzerland [8.8]. England also have two players with 25 or more games under their belt, whereas Spain's longest server is Diego Capel with 20, while there is also more stability at the top with Pearce now in his fifth year in charge. Spanish coach Luis Milla took over just last summer.

...and their big guns are more established than Spain's
Top-level experience is a rare commodity when it comes to the age range of players involved in this competition so those that have it undoubtedly possess a huge advantage. Prior to Michael Mancienne's recent switch from Chelsea to Hamburg, England were being represented by seven players that are on either Manchester United or Chelsea's books, and five of those made at least 16 Premier League appearances, with three making 25 or more (Tom Cleverley, Daniel Sturridge and Danny Welbeck). By contrast, the Spain party features no Real Madrid players and five from Barcelona, but they averaged nine top-flight outings to the English starlets' 15 and not one of them, even Bojan Krkic, reached double figures in terms of La Liga starts.

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why France won't win Eurovision

Eurovision Song Contest / The Betfair Contrarian / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

You heard it here first - Amaury Vassili will not be smiling on Saturday night

"France haven’t won since 1977 and haven’t even hit the podium positions since 1991, while their results have grown progressively worse, with just one top-ten finish in eight years and three of their last six attempts landing in the bottom four."

They're the [2.96] favourites but the stats say Europe will deliver a stern 'non' to the French on Saturday night, says the Betfair Contrarian

The Eurovision Song Contest in the 21st century has largely been a tale of first-time winners and Big Four (United Kingdom, Germany, France and Spain) failure, but Germany's 2010 victory appears to have changed the landscape. Indeed, the top of this year's winner market looks most unfamiliar, with France, Ireland (Jedward) and the UK (Blue) leading the way. The Contrarian wisely steered punters away from last year's favourites Azerbaijan though, and this year recommends giving operatic French entry "Sognu" the elbow this time at [2.98]...

"Sognu" is certain to divide opinion
Twenty-one-year-old tenor Amaury Vassili's "Sognu" has received huge support from Betfair punters, currently trading at [2.96] to triumph having at one point been backed at [250.0]. It's expected to be a big hit with the judges that have a 50 per cent weighting in the vote for each nation, however the other half is determined by the viewing public, and how they will respond to a highbrow submission which varies drastically from the standard Eurovision fare is unclear, with the majority of modern winners either being simple ballads, high-tempo pop and occasionally rock that doesn't take itself too seriously.

It's a good song, but it's still France!
Several recent French Eurovision Song Contest entries have quite rightly been derided, however there is no disputing that this year's offering is their most promising in ages, with the decision to go down the opera route ensuring that it will stand out from the crowd. Even so, a good track is no guarantee of success, especially when your record in the competition is as dire as France's. They haven't won since 1977 and haven't even hit the podium positions since 1991, while their results have grown progressively worse, with just one top-ten finish in eight years and three of their last six attempts landing in the bottom four.

And the draw has been very unkind
France's call to pick a song that differs from almost everything else on the show is perhaps influenced by the belief that something unique is more likely to be remembered, so their strategy has been clearly compromised by the draw forcing them to be the 11th of the 25 challengers on stage, and perform right before equally left-field Italian choice "Follia d'amore". The last six finals have all been won by one of the eight closing acts, while the middle of the pack is the worst place to be, with only one of the 90 acts drawn in positions nine to 17 over the last decade finishing first.

They've got the language decision all wrong
Sebastien Tellier's 2008 effort "Divine" was a solid Eurovision song produced by Daft Punk's Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo, yet it divided opinion in France due to the inclusion of some English lyrics. Much to French vexation, English is undeniably now the language of Eurovision, having been the tongue adopted by 11 of the last 12 winners. In 2010, all of the seven highest scorers sung in English, while the finalists that opted for another dialect wound up in an average place of 13th. So though the decision to abandon French seems shrewd, singing in Corsican on "Sognu" might not be the wisest of choices.

There are safer options available at bigger prices
Female solo stars have claimed top spot in six of the last eight years so the absence of any in the top four of the market is begging to be exploited. Last year's champion Lena - tipped by the Contrarian at [5.8] on that occasion - is back to defend her crown on home soil for Germany [21.0] and while "Taken by a Stranger" isn't as catchy as "Satellite", she has a huge fanbase and was clearly liked by the judges. Another intriguing contender is Getter Jaidi of Estonia [14.0], whose song "Rockefeller Street" should breeze through the second semi-final.

For an alternative take on this year's Eurovision Song Contest please follow @betfairpoker twitter feed.

We will be running Eurovision themed free roll this Saturday at 7pm UK time (Password: Big Carlos)

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Sebastian Vettel won't win the Drivers' Championship

Formula One / The Betfair Contrarian / 07 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will hostilities between Vettel and Webber scupper the German's chances?

"The Drivers' Championship is tougher to retain than ever... "

Sebastian Vettel who took the chequered flag in Australia, prompting many to predict a successful title defence. The Contrarian isn't buying it though, and thinks the Red Bull driver represents an irresistible lay at [1.92]. Here's why...

There are 18 races to go

Nine of the last 14 winners of the seaon curtain-raiser have gone on to be crowned champion but that statistic alone isn't enough to justify Vettel's price being sliced from [3.4] to [1.92]. There are countless examples of drivers starting a campaign strongly before fading - for example, David Coulthard twice triumphed in the opener and on five occasions made the podium without ever seriously challenging. Last season, Alonso delivered in Bahrain before enduring nine straight races without success, whereas Vettel ended March 25 points off the pace yet still recovered.

Nobody ever stays on top

As the Contrarian highlighted recently, the Drivers' Championship is tougher to retain than ever due to the climate of constant rule change and dependence on manufacturers and strategy. The past five seasons have produced five different world champions (Fernando Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen, Hamilton, Jensen Button and Vettel). It's even harder to stay on top in your early years, as shown by the fact that of the eight youngest winners in history, only two managed to do it again the following year. Vettel has now surpassed those eight as the youngest ever driver to establish himself as the sport's finest. He faces an equally daunting task to stay there.

McLaren are stronger than anticipated

McLaren were accused of sandbagging in pre-season testing after exceeding all expectations at the Australian Grand Prix, where Hamilton finished second and Button wound up sixth. The Woking-based team weren't fancied to be anywhere near as high in the standings this early in the campaign after their poor performances over the winter and the fact that they are - regardless of whether it is due to exaggerating the extent of their malaise or making swift progress - is bad news for Vettel and Red Bull, who looked set to have a chance to build a big lead before McLaren achieve top form.

The return of team orders is a blow

One of the most significant of the latest batch of regulation alterations is the return of team orders, allowing constructors to instruct their drivers to let title-chasing team-mates pass them and the like. It's one that might not please the Red Bull bosses too much given that their employees Vettel and Mark Webber had the most trouble of all the leading pairings when it came to working in tandem last year. The veteran Australian became increasingly frustrated with what he perceived to be the favourable treatment towards his younger colleague and may feel that it is his turn to be supported. This year is one of his final opportunities to reach the top.

Petrov is this year's dark horse

Incredibly, each of the last four seasons have provided first-time champions, so don't discount the prospect of an emerging talent threatening the traditional frontrunners. This year's potential surprise package is Renault's Russian driver Vitaly Petrov, who after an unremarkable first season, hit the headlines in the finale at Abu Dhabi after holding off title contender Alonso for sixth place, much to the Spaniard's frustration. He got the better of the two-time champion again in Australia for his first podium and, while Alonso claimed that he wasn't bothered as he doesn't view Petrov as a rival, not all punters agreed with his dismissal, as the 26-year-old's price has shot in from [730.00] to [230.00].

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Chelsea will win the Premier League

Premier League / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

The fact Frank Lampard has found top form is a huge boost for the Blues

"Manchester United are learning as Arsenal did in 2003-04 that the end of a lengthy unbeaten run is a big blow to recover from. They have lost three of their last five games, something that last happened seven years ago during their three-season stretch without winning the Premier League, the longest they have ever suffered. "

It looked an impossible dream a few weeks back but just as Manchester United have lost form, Chelsea have found plenty. Here's why the defending champions will be the new champions come May.

Manchester United and Arsenal's poor results last weekend have suddenly presented Chelsea with a ticket back into the title race, which on the evidence of their 3-1 win at Blackpool they will gleefully accept. The reigning champs are available to back at [9.8] and the Contrarian has found five reasons to fancy them - without even needing to mention the fact that surely Fernando Torres will start scoring soon...

It's an artificial nine-point gap

It would be a mistake to pay too much attention to the nine-point margin, as Chelsea have a game in hand at home to Birmingham and another clash with the [1.82] favourites Manchester United (who Carlo Ancelotti has never dropped a Premier League point against) to come. Therefore, it could theoretically be a three-point gap, with similar goal differences and the Red Devils still to visit Arsenal. So the champions' chances are far greater than odds of [9.8] suggest.

Chelsea are spectacularly strong in spring

While few would dispute that Chelsea are worse on the whole for the 2007 departure of two-time title-winning manager Jose Mourinho, their record in the closing weeks of the season has improved noticeably. Their tallies over the final eight matches of the last three campaigns have been the three highest of their Premier League history and their overall record in that stretch reads 20 victories, three draws and just one loss in 24 encounters. The fact they've had a different manager in each of those run-ins (Avram Grant, Guus Hiddink and Ancelotti) shows that the strength of character in the Chelsea dressing room is a major reason behind their ability to finish strongly, and last year's effort was particularly incredible as not only did they win seven of their final eight, they scored 33 goals, while conceding just four, so there's no danger of them cracking under the pressure.

Lampard has made and will make a difference

He's taken a while to hit top form and arguably still isn't quite there, but one of the main factors in Chelsea escaping their winter slump has been the return of Frank Lampard, who has fired eight goals in his last ten appearances. The England midfielder has the proud record of having hit 20-plus in each of the last five seasons, which he'll try and extend. And while his lengthy injury absence makes that a tough task, it's not impossible given the number of goals Chelsea are capable of scoring when at their best. Last year, he struck ten times in the Premier League from mid-March onwards.

Their rivals are faltering

Manchester United are learning as Arsenal did in 2003-04 that the end of a lengthy unbeaten run is a big blow to recover from. They have lost three of their last five games, something that last happened seven years ago during their three-season stretch without winning the Premier League, the longest they have ever suffered. Arsenal are yet to lose in the league in 2011 and are in similar form to Chelsea with five triumphs in seven, but whereas the Blues' stumbles have come in understandable circumstances - facing a Liverpool side fired up by the sale of Fernando Torres - and in a derby at improving Fulham, Arsenal's have been less excusable. Setbacks occurred against Newcastle and Sunderland in matches with no great pressure attached and illustrated their inexperience in this environment.

Chelsea have the most favourable run-in

As shown above, Chelsea are masters at keeping cool as the tension rises and they'll be more confident of doing so than ever, with six of their remaining ten fixtures at home, compared to five in nine for Manchester United and four in ten for Arsenal, especially as they were solid at Stamford Bridge even while struggling. Their final four away outings meanwhile take place at three grounds they won at last time out and another where they drew, indicating ten points from 12 as a realistic target.

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Sarah Palin will win the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination

US Politics / The Betfair Contrarian / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Palin v Obama in 2012?

"Their 2012 campaign will focus on Obama’s shortcomings and promote an alternative, and there’s nobody better suited to that than Palin, who has been on his case at every setback."

Who will take on Barack Obama for the 2012 Presidential election? Betfair punters expect Mitt Romney to get the Republican nomination while some have even speculated that Donald Trump could have a crack at the White House. The Betfair Contrarian explains why everybody's favourite Alaskan is his choice...

The Contrarian has proven in the past that he's even more adept at making money out of politics than an expense-fiddling MP, his latest triumph coming when opposing David Miliband at [1.43] in last year's Labour leadership battle. He's spotted another big opportunity - backing Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for the 2012 election at the huge price of [10.0]. Wondering why you should put your money on someone with as many critics as fans? Let the Contrarian explain...

"The Republican Party leadership vacuum"

This was a term coined by Washington Post journalist Dana Milbank in reaction to billionaire Donald Trump [46.0] tearing down the house at last month's Conservative Political Action Conference when he delivered a speech hinting at an unlikely push for the presidency. Milbank concluded that the positive reaction to a figure as politically uninvolved as Trump, whose views far from mirror those of the Republican party, demonstrates the lack of credible leaders. Such a situation lends itself to opting for a candidate that, while potentially divisive, has the strength of character and conviction in their beliefs to win voters round, boxes that even Palin's enemies would concede that she emphatically ticks.

There are lessons in the Democrats' 2008 success

Barack Obama's landslide victory illustrated that a relatively inexperienced, charismatic politician with a touch of celebrity status is sometimes more likely to capture the imagination of the public than uninspiring establishment veterans. The Republicans' 2008 choice John McCain was dubbed "McSame" and dismissed as a George W Bush clone, while the current 2012 favourite Mitt Romney [4.5] has fallen victim to nicknames like Mittbot in reference to his perceived robotic delivery.

Palin is the antithesis of Obama

Obama's landslide surge to the White House and subsequent rather flat performance has left the electorate underwhelmed, and opened the door for the Republicans' unprecedented mid-term gains, for which Palin earned much credit. Their 2012 campaign will focus on Obama's shortcomings and promote an alternative, and there's nobody better suited to that role than Palin, who has been on his case at every setback of his tenure. She also has the invaluable experience of having been a key player in the team that opposed him last time. That defeat will have been hugely educational, much as Richard Nixon benefitted from the lessons of his 1960 loss to JFK to see off George McGovern by record-breaking margins in 1972.

Allegations of widespread unpopularity are unproven

Palin constantly complains about biased reporting from what she labels the "lamestream media" and her supporters are adamant that the press portrayal of her as widely disliked is inaccurate. There could well be substance to that theory, with a national poll at the time of the last election showing that just 19.6 per cent of citizens trust most news media reporting. Evidence of this is her daughter Bristol's showing in the 2010 series of Dancing With the Stars, in which she exceeded expectations to finish third, surviving on five separate occasions despite registering the lowest score, progress that was credited to many Americans warming to Palin senior and therefore voting for the daughter.

Running mates often go on to be presidential candidates

If reality TV voting patterns aren't enough to convince you, there are a fair few examples of running mates, as Palin was for McCain in 2008, going on to stand for the presidency further down the line. Some, like Lyndon Johnson and George Bush I, succeeded victorious candidates, but it is not unheard of for running mates in unsuccessful campaigns to later earn a chance to stand for the big job, with Bob Dole a recent Republican example, battling with Bill Clinton in 1996 having previously been part of a failed Gerald Ford bid.

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Liverpool will finish in the top four

Premier League / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

My main men. Luis Suarez, Kenny Dalglish and Andy Carroll will be doing their best to get Liverpool in next seasons' Champions League

"The greatest proof that Liverpool have nothing to fear and plenty of time to make up the ground required with a dozen fixtures remaining is that in their last four outings alone they have already recovered six points, having been 12 points shy of the Champions League positions following their 2-2 draw with Everton at Anfield on January 16."

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Liverpool will finish in the top four

Four weeks ago, the Contrarian ignored Kenny Dalglish's losses to Manchester United and Blackpool in his first two games back in charge at Anfield to recommend backing Liverpool to finish in the top six at [3.9]. Five matches and 13 points later, the Reds are in to [1.42] in that market and progressing at an even faster rate than the notorious champion of the underdog expected. So swiftly in fact, that he is now tipping them to qualify for the Champions League at [7.0]. Here's why...

The gap is only six points...

A team six points behind the Premier League leaders at this point in the season having played a game more might have their title credentials doubted - Manchester City find themselves in a similar position now - but it's not a decisive margin in the battle for a top-four finish, as has been proven frequently in recent campaigns. Arsenal recovered a four-point deficit with just four left to play when battling with Tottenham in 2005-06, while they trailed Aston Villa by seven points on this date two years ago. Liverpool also have experience of chasing, having clawed their way back from seventh at the start of February 2008 to eventually end up a whopping 11 points clear of fifth-placed Everton.

...and they have already recovered six

The greatest proof that Liverpool have nothing to fear and plenty of time to make up the ground required with a dozen fixtures remaining is that in their last four outings alone they have already recovered six points, having been 12 points shy of the Champions League positions following their 2-2 draw with Everton at Anfield on January 16.

Liverpool have an undaunting run-in

Chelsea have a game in hand on Liverpool but there's no guarantee that they'll pick up any points against table-topping Manchester United, who they still have to face twice. Tottenham have a game in hand too, however the worry for them is that just one of their final 13 matches is against a club placed between eighth and 14th, the ones likely to have the least to play for in the closing weeks, and therefore more favourable opponents than those fighting relegation, of which Spurs clash with seven to Liverpool's four. Encouragingly, Dalglish's side meet only four of the ten teams that have already beaten them in their closing 12 ties, and each of those encounters takes place at Anfield.

The Suarez and Carroll partnership is still to come

Liverpool defeated two top-half Premier League sides last week without departed top goalscorer Fernando Torres and big-money January acquisitions Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll in the starting line-up. A key reason for that success is the defensive improvement under Dalglish, with four successive clean sheets obtained, and Raul Meireles in form, but it begs the question that if they can achieve so much without a proven goal-getter, how much better will they get with two? Carroll's price tag can be questioned, yet he has scored more goals this season than any top-flight player besides Dimitar Berbatov and Carlos Tevez. This despite an injury absence and playing for a promoted team, while Suarez netted 49 times for Ajax last year, showing it was no fluke by delivering at the World Cup too.

They did the double over Chelsea

How about this for a promising omen? Since Roman Abramovich took over at Chelsea in 2003, rapidly turning them from top-six regulars that never looked capable of finishing first into regular title contenders, Liverpool had only once done the double over the Blues - in 2008-09 - and that was the only one of the first seven seasons of Abramovich's reign in which the Reds outperformed their west London rivals. Last weekend's 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge allowed them to replicate the feat.

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