Paul Nicholls: The views on my three runners in France and Ireland today

15:05 Down Royal - Wonderful Charm

"This has been the plan for him for a while, and hopefully he will go well in a race that has cut up, though he meets three in-form rivals and he doesn't have that much in hand of two of them on official ratings."

Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls sends one raider to France and two to Ireland this afternoon for a couple of races that he has a great record in. Read the Ditcheat handler's exclusive thoughts on their chances here...

14:30 Down Royal - Rocky Creek

We have been lucky enough to win this race four times in recent seasons but this looks the hottest renewal for a long while. The likes of Gold Cup runner-up On His Own, Boston Bob and First Lieutenant are proven Grade 1 horses, while Nicky's Ma Filleule clearly has to be respected after running away with the Topham off a mark of 150 last season.

But hopefully Rocky Creek can take the step forward up to that level this season. He had his niggles and setbacks last season but he still delivered excellent performances in the Hennessy and Argento and - despite getting a case of ringworm before the race - he got us a bit excited when running so well for a long way in the Grand National, I can tell you!

But I just wondered that he wasn't finishing off his races, so we checked him out and gave him a breathing operation in the summer. It is a long season ahead and this is a proper race, but he is in good nick, he went well in a racecourse gallop with Silviniaco Conti at Chepstow last week, and does go well fresh, and this will tell us whether we go to the Hennessy with him or maybe aim higher.

14:45 Auteuil - Zarkandar

Take out Gemix and this Grade 1 lacks strength in depth, so for nearly £140,000 to the winner, we will happily take our chances. After beating The New One in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle in 2013, it was a little disappointing that he didn't get his head in front last season but he ran some excellent races, not least first time up at Ascot when failing by only five lengths to give Annie Power 11lb and when fourth in the World Hurdle.

And he ran ok in his two runs here over the summer. But he has had a good rest since and at one stage we were considering going for the Cesarewitch with him. However, that race came a touch too soon for him but he is in good order here. He runs in blinkers again and the services of Vincent Cheminaud, who is a good young French jockey who I think leads their jockeys' title by 20 or so winners.

Gemix is clearly the one to beat, and you'd have to give last year's winner Reve De Sivola a fair shout if he is at his best, but I think Zarkandar has a big chance. Three miles in heavy ground will be fine for him, he has a strong form chance and we recauterised his palate in the summer, which will hopefully help, too.

15:05 Down Royal - Wonderful Charm

If we have a good record in the JNwine.com Champion Chase then we have a pretty formidable one in this, as we have been lucky enough to win this race for the past six seasons. And we know that we are coming here with a fit and in-form horse with Wonderful Charm after his reappearance win in a good race at Newton Abbot.

I thought that I had him straight enough there, but it was still pleasing to see him get the job done, and I would have thought that would have brought him on again. This has been the plan for him for a while, and hopefully he will go well in a race that has cut up, though he meets three in-form rivals and he doesn't have that much in hand of two of them on official ratings.

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Six Nations Betting: Will Greenwood on France v Ireland

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Greenwood does not have fond memories of this lot

"I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14]."

Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday.

Ireland are really up against it this Sunday. It's impossible to legislate for last minute postponements and, while both France and Ireland are now involved in four consecutive grueling match weekends, the away side face a gargantuan task in Paris.

Perhaps Declan Kidney's men played too much in their own half last weekend but that's the way to beat Italy. France and England both had to be patient before breaking down the Azzurri and Ireland took their opportunities well after the break. Their 42-10 win blew away a few cobwebs.

But it's backs against the wall time on Sunday. Paris is a horrible place for visiting teams. I admire French rugby, on its good days at least, they've made an inestimable contribution to club competition and Philip Saint-Andre has the makings of a very good team. However, while I appreciate that these are delicate times for Anglo-French relations, there are several reasons why playing in Paris is, frankly, merde.

Never underestimate the disorientating effect of competing in a foreign culture. Minor details, such as the food, driving on the wrong side of the road, put you ill at ease. Stade de France is a strange, enervating arena, where 90,000 French fans look at you as though you're not worthy of being on the pitch. Fair play to them, they know how to undermine opponents, but banter in the stands and on the touchline gets lost in translation and the atmosphere is cold, cold, cold.

You might have guessed that I never won in Paris. I was part of an England team that lost there on three occasions - 24-17, 20-15, 24-21 - and I was out injured when we silenced the French fans in 2000. That same year, incidentally, Ireland achieved their last win in the City of Light as Brian O'Driscoll scored a hat-trick in a 25-27 thriller.

In those days, teams scored points even when losing to France. Italy managed 12 here in round one and Scotland scored a couple of tries against France last weekend but Les Bleus were in second gear in both matches. I anticipate ruthlessness from France. There's been absolutely nothing wrong with their attack so far but I sense that they would relish a big victory. The loss of Maxime Medard is a blow but the march to Cardiff for what should be a Grand Slam decider would benefit from momentum. I expect Wesley Fofana and Vincent Clerc to come flying out of the blocks on Sunday so I'll back an early try.

Betfair have got it spot on with their 12.5 margin line and I'm struggling to choose which side to put my money on. I was right to back Ireland to go over and France under last week but I may have to swerve this market. Three weeks ago, I thought France would win by a big score but I sense that Ireland could be more resolute this time. I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14].

Recommended Bets
3pts Back France-8.5 @ [2.14]
3pts Back France/France in the half-time/full-time market @ [1.81]
1pt Back 11-20 mins first try odds @ [2.54]

Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors......

Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ......

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Six Nations Stat Attack: France v Ireland

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Vincent Clerc has a superb record against Ireland

"France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4]... "

Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors...

Stat attack

• Since the IRB world rankings were launched in 2003, France have never enjoyed a greater margin of superiority in the rankings when hosting Ireland in Paris.

• Ireland have won just once in Paris since 1972 and of those 21 matches in the French capital Ireland would have been losers with a seven-point start 15 times. A Brian O'Driscoll hat-trick set up a famous Irish victory in 2000 but the centre is out injured.

• France have led at half-time in seven of their last eight matches in all competitions in Paris against Ireland. You have to go back to 2009 when New Zealand played in Paris in the autumn for the last time Les Bleus trailed at half-time at home.

• France have scored the first try of the match in the last seven matches against Ireland.

• France have won nine consecutive games at the Stade de France, a run of wins stretching back to their 24-13 defeat at the hands of England in 2008

• Ireland have been losers in the main match handicap in five of their last six road matches in the Six Nations.

• Vincent Clerc represents France's most potent attacking threat against Ireland, having scored five times in his six Championship appearances against them.

• France coach Philippe Saint-André has made two changes to the side that defeated Scotland 17-23 at Murrayfield. Clement Poitrenaud makes a timely return to the full back spot after injury ruled Maxime Medard out of this weekend's clash. Meanwhile Clermont Auvergne flanker Julien Bonnaire is named at blindside wing-forward, with Imanol Harinordoquyswitching to No.8. He replaces Toulouse No.8 Louis Picamoles, who drops to the bench.

• Declan Kidney has adopted to keep the same starting line-up who beat Italy 42-10 at the Aviva Stadium, and the same XV that was originally picked to face France for the postponed game three weeks ago.

Preview

France were considered favourites over Ireland by nine to ten points before the farcical situation which saw the match called off at the 11th hour three weeks ago. Now, after Ireland's thumping win over Italy and France's victory in Edinburgh, the layers have shaved a point or two off the match handicap with France enjoying just a seven-point deficit with some layers in the betting village.

Form is obviously subjective, but according to the IRB rankings system, Ireland have not been this poor since Declan Kidney picked up the pieces from Eddie O'Sullivan before moulding the squad into a Grand Slam winning side in the 2008-09 season.

France enjoy one of their biggest advantages since the Six Nations was formed in 2000 with regards to the IRB rankings and in my database I have found 70 matches of a similar nature which have taken place in that time frame.

There are 46 home teams that won by more than seven points in that sample, with the average points differential standing at 14 in the 70 matches overall. France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4] on Betfair, which filters down to the subsidiary markets.

France have an exceptional record against Ireland at home, scoring the opening try in the last seven encounters and although Kidney's side are one of the better teams in the tournament away from home, France look too strong and should be in front at half-time and full-time.

Ireland continue to operate without the ageing magic of Brian O'Driscoll, but France's most potent attacking weapon still takes the field.

The trend in this year's tournament is that backs are scoring all the tries - Tom Court, Rory Best and Sergio Parisse are the only forwards to have scored so far - and Wesley Forfana, the France centre, has confidently taken the step up from Heineken Cup rugby to international level. His tries and all-round game have helped France immeasurably and he can take some of the attention off team-mate Vincent Clerc, who has a sublime scoring record against the Irish over the years, scoring over half of his tries in the tournament against Ireland.

Recommended Bet
3pt Back France @ [1.4]
2pts Back France to win half-time/full-time @ [1.89]
1pt Back Vincent Clerc to score a try @ [2.46]

Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday....

Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ......

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Ireland will beat France

General / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ireland need Jonathan Sexton to be at his best if the Contrarian's bet is to come in

"Ireland reacted to all of their previous five Six Nations reverses (and nine of their last ten ) with victories; France and England (twice) were among those to feel their wrath in that stretch."

After success last week backing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, the Contrarian is confident of following it up with a rugby triumph. He's spotted Ireland at a massive [4.6] to win away to France in the Six Nations on Saturday, and thinks that there's a formidable case for backing them despite their poor record in Paris...

France are without their kicking king

Ireland couldn't have asked for a bigger boost in the build-up to Saturday's encounter than the news that France's chief kicker Dimitri Yachvili will sit it out with a back injury. The experienced scrum-half was their top points scorer at last year's World Cup, racking up an impressive tally of 39, and carried that form into their Six Nations opener against Italy, in which his ten-point haul accounted for a third of their overall total in the match. The Biarritz star is indeed so prolific that he was flagged up by Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood as his pre-tournament fancy to be top points scorer, so his likely replacement on kicking duties, Morgan Parra, has some hefty boots to fill.

Their World Cup hangover is yet to kick in

The Contrarian has discussed before the frequency with which Europe's top World Cup performers follow the feat with a shambolic Six Nations campaign, and after reaching the final in New Zealand, this France side are on course to become the latest high-profile flops. The last time that Les Bleus were World Cup runners-up was in 1999 and a few months later they lost two Six Nations home games, one of which as you've probably guessed came against Ireland. New coach Philippe Saint-Andre was victorious in his first match last week, though little can be read into that win given that it came at home to Italy, who have finished bottom of the last four editions and tasted defeat in 14 of their last 16 outings in the competition.

Might trick me once...

Whereas France got their Six Nations challenge off to a much-anticipated winning start, Ireland were beaten 21-23 by Wales in Dublin in a tie that they were leading with two minutes to go. However, don't expect them to dwell on that setback or give up on top spot with four fixtures still to play. Ireland have taken the title just once this century, compared to France's five, England's four and Wales' two, but they have the second best overall record in that period, thanks in part to their ability to recover from any setback. They reacted to all of their previous five Six Nations reverses (and nine of their last ten ) with victories; France and England (twice) were among those to feel their wrath in that stretch.

Ireland prefer life on the road

That potentially costly defeat to Wales was Ireland's third in four Six Nations home games, the move to the Aviva Stadium evidently not having had the desired effect. The flip side of that alarming trend is that a lot of their most inspiring work is produced on their travels, where they have won six of their last eight in the Six Nations. Recent results away to Les Bleus haven't been as uplifting, though encouragement can be found in the fact that they are getting closer. Declan Kidney's team restricted them to only one try last year in Bordeaux compared to a combined 24 on their six prior visits. They suffered a 19-12 loss on that occasion, but a whopping 14 of those French points were provided by absentee Yachvili.

Ralph Ellis was mightily impressed by the way Stuart Lancaster's young England held off Scotland on Saturday. Now our man is backing the Red Rose to triumph over Italy......

Round one of the Six Nations is over, so what have we learned about the sides and how should results inform next weekend's bets? Richard O'Hagan reports....

Dream start for Stuart Lancaster's inexperienced team as Scotland are left to rue errors and indecisiveness once again......

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Wake up to the prospects of Morning Ireland

Tipping / Stuart Jones / 25 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

There's quality Flat action at the Curragh this afternoon.

"Rodriquez and Summersinerrill set the standard of those with hurdlng experience, but neither appear to be any better than modest, and this race looks Morning Ireland's to lose on his hurdling bow"

Two jumpers at Clonmel and one on the Flat at the Curragh make up Sunday's selections.

Morning Ireland's (14.55) below-par effort at Roscommon last time can easily be excused given the extremely testing conditions and the form of his previous bumper runs make him the one to beat in what appears to be a weak maiden hurdle. He showed fairly useful form when in the frame both starts for Jim Bolger and that form is far superior to anything achieved by these rivals. Rodriquez and Summersinerrill set the standard of those with hurdlng experience, but neither appear to be any better than modest, and this race looks Morning Ireland's to lose on his hurdling bow.

Rebel Fitz (15.25) didn't have things go his way when runner-up to Earls Quarter in a novice at Galway last time and is expected to resume his progression in what looks a weaker contest. The presence of Bleakfield Lady and Ontheground should ensure that this a run at a proper gallop, something that will help bring out the best in Rebel Fitz, and he can put his hurdling experience to good use to get the better of Mississippi River.

Harrison's Cave (17.25) may still be a maiden after nine starts, but he remains unexposed at middle-distances and has shaped much better than the result suggests in handicaps on his last two starts, caught on heels turning in before finishing strongly when third to Whatever It Takes at Roscommon on the latest occasion. Few of the newcomers stand out on breeding, and Harrison's Cave can put his experience to good use in getting the better of Ansaab.

Recommendations

Back Morning Ireland in the 14.55 at Clonmel
Back Rebel Fitz in the 15.25 at Clonmel
Back Harrison's Cave in the 17.25 at the Curragh

Three bets as ever in this popular column and no prizes for guessing the format. Two backs and one lay based on price movements it is then....

This handicap over an extended mile looks one of the most interesting races on a good card at Epsom......

Two backs and a lay are the the way the Follow The Money boys roll. Here are their selections on this busy Saturday afternoon....

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Euro 2012 Betting: Rep of Ireland v FYR Macedonia

Euro 2012 / Mike Norman / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Robbie Keane will be looking to add to his all-time record goalscoring tally for the Rep of Ireland on Saturday night

"The Irish have scored in eight of their last nine internationals, and with Aiden McGeady and Robbie Keane in their starting line-up they should find the net once more against a Macedonia side who have won just one of their last eight internationals."

Mike Norman takes a brief look at Rep of Ireland's crucial home qualifier against FYR Macedonia and predicts a good night for the Irish and Robbie Keane.

Rep of Ireland will look to get back on the winning trail in Group B by taking all three points against FYR Macedonia when the two sides meet at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday night.

Giovanni Trapatonni's men started their qualifying campaign with back-to-back victories against Armenia and Andorra, but they've since lost at home to group leaders Russia and taken what could prove to be a vital point from their away trip to Slovakia. The Irish are well-positioned in Group B, three points ahead of Macedonia who they now play in consecutive qualifying games.

Having already lost Shay Given, John O'Shea and Seamus Coleman to injury Trapatonni is sweating over the fitness of centre-back Sean St Ledger and experienced winger Damien Duff. If St Ledger doesn't make it then Aston Villa defender Ciaran Clark should line-up alongside his fit-again club teammate Richard Dunne at the heart of the defence. Macedonia coach Mirsad Jonuz has an experienced squad to choose from with star striker Goran Pandev and talented left-back Goran Popov returning to action after missing the last series of qualifiers through injury.

The Republic can be backed at [1.52] in the Match Odds market, and although a home victory is the most likely outcome better value definitely lies elsewhere.

The Irish have scored in eight of their last nine internationals, and with Aiden McGeady and Robbie Keane in their starting line-up they should find the net once more against a Macedonia side who have won just one of their last eight internationals. But with Macedonia failing to score in each of their last four outings (including friendlies) then splitting your stake between the 1-0 - available to back at [6.8] - and 2-0 ([6.6]) options in the Correct Score market is my best bit of advice in this encounter.

Under 2.5 Goals should be landed, but the odds on offer of just [1.74] are a bit on the skinny side for my liking so a chance is instead taken on Keane at [2.2] in the To Score market. The Republic's all-time record goalscorer has netted four times in his last six games at the Aviva Stadium and will be on penalty duty on Saturday night. He will be available to back at around [5.5] once the First Goalscorer market materialises and I wouldn't put anyone off that bet either.

Recommended Bet: Back 1-0 @ [6.8] and 2-0 @ [6.6] in Correct Score market

England did enough to beat Wales this afternoon and are closing in on qualification for Euro 2012....

An injury to Wales' star player and plenty of mutterings about the England captaincy have dominated the build-up to this match but the busines of making money from it now takes centre stage, says Jamie Pacheco....

Jack Houghton thought he had an edge on the market when first with the news of John Terry's return to captaincy - but Betfair customers were unmoved and it seems they were entirely right......

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Six Nations Betting Preview: Wales v Ireland

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 11 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey believes that Declan Kidney's dressing down will have the desired effect on his team

"Ireland have picked the right side for the clash in Cardiff, where, amazingly, they have not lost since 1985."

Never mind the wisdom of Wilko, Geoffrey Riddle believes that stats could hold the key to finding the value in Saturday's big match at the Millenium.

For those gamblers out there who rely on statistics, don't. That's the belief system of Jonny Wilkinson, the World Cup winner.

The Toulon and England fly-half has been talking himself down this week, saying that the England team are better without him. "People refer to statistics because it is an easy way to create a comparison," said the world's record points scorer. "When you play for a team, however, you realise they mean absolutely nothing. It means nothing that I have scored all of those points because they tell you nothing of how those points were scored, which kicks went over that were not that great and the great kicks that missed. It doesn't tell anything."

For those of you who do not subscribe to the Wilkinson-Benjamin Disraeli train of thought, there are a few statistics that standout this weekend which, on the face of it, look of significant interest when punting on Wales' clash with Ireland on Saturday at the Millennium Stadium. Sorry Jonny.

Handicap punters will have realised by now that Ireland have been poor value lately, with Declan Kidney's men falling short of the high street bookmakers' estimation ten times in their last 14 matches.

If recent failure to cover the handicap means expectation of Ireland is lower then it's interesting that, on the initial lines on Betfair, Brian O'Driscoll and co. are favourites in the betting, receiving a 2.5-point start. This arises from the high street layers' handicap, which is generally scratch.

For what it's worth, I made Ireland three-point favourites when I priced up the match earlier this week.

Ireland have made a habit of getting on the scoreboard early. They have scored the first try of the match in their last six matches, and early, too, with four inside the 20 minute mark. In contrast, Wales have scored the first try just four times in their last 15 matches. It may be hard for Wales to peg them back if the sequence continues.

Kidney has played it safe by naming Ronan O'Gara in the No.10 jersey again this week after he was in the saddle when Ireland scored three tries against Scotland at Murrayfield last time out. For the purposes of Saturday's match, there is scarcely a better choice than the Munsterman. Anyone who has been keeping an eye on the Super 15 recently will have seen that Jonathan Kaplan, the referee, has allowed the maul to flourish.

Kidney has clearly taken this into account, and with Ireland's vastly superior eight, it may well come down to a game plan as simple as O'Gara playing for position and Ireland rumbling over the whitewash.

Purists will be aghast, especially when the Welsh backline including James Hook, Jonathan Davies, Lee Byrne and Leigh Halfpenny oozes class and has the ability to conjure up tries off limited possession.

Although Ireland have given away 35 penalties so far in the Six Nations, the quietly-spoken Kidney gave the squad an uncharacteristic dressing down earlier this week. The starting XV are unlikely to make similar mistakes again.

Warren Gatland, the Wales coach, included Halfpenny in his run-on side partly because the Cardiff wing can bisect the posts from a penalty 60 metres out. Wales, however, have conceded 36 penalties in the tournament and O'Gara is sure to get his opportunities, too.

Rugby is not like most sports. When a side is totally out-pointed up front it can be very difficult to make an impression, especially if your back-row is up against it and cannot turn over ball for the counter-attack.

I believe that Ireland have picked the right side for the clash in Cardiff, where, amazingly, they have not lost since 1985. The statistics say Ireland, the way the game might pan out also indicates the visitors have the upper hand. Whether you believe Wilkinson or not, Kidney's side look fair value.

Never mind the wisdom of Wilko, Geoffrey Riddle believes that stats could hold the key to finding the value in Saturday's big match at the Millenium....

Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?...

Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team....

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Cricket World Cup Betting: West Indies v Ireland

World Cup Betting / Ed Hawkins / 10 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

William Porterfield and Niall O'Brien are key players for Ireland with the bat

"Ireland are a bit of an obvious pick at [6.00] for this contest. They have to win to keep their qualification hopes alive but the injury to Johnston and the importance of the toss makes us less confident. The Irish will become value, however, if they bat first."

We've seen what Ireland can do already in this competition and they're more than capable of springing another upset here against an ever-vulnerable West Indies side. Even despite a couple of setbacks that have marred the Irish preparations...

Ireland are perspiring over the fitness of key allrounder Trent Johnston. The 36-year-old picked up a knee injury in the defeat to India on Sunday.

"He bowled a couple of overs in the nets today. He ran in hard as well. We will wait and see how he reacts," captain Will Porterfield said of Johnston, who is their leading bowler with six wickets.

Johnston's place could go to Andre Botha or Gary Wilson. West Indies captain Darren Sammy said the dramatic Dhaka stoning of their team bus - after they humiliated hosts Bangladesh - and the bitter war of words which followed, has strengthened the squad's World Cup bonds.

Venue and conditions

There has been only one game played at the PCA stadium, Mohali so far: South Africa's 231-run hammering of Holland. We can't garner much from that so it is necessary to delve into the collection of past scorecards. The first trend to mention is that batting last is tough. There have been two successful chases in the last eight and three in
the last 10. The average first-innings score in the last 10 is 274.

Match odds

Ireland are a bit of an obvious pick at [6.00] for this contest. They have to win to keep their qualification hopes alive but the injury to Johnston and the importance of the toss makes us less confident. The Irish will become value, however, if they bat first. They have the bowlers capable of causing panic in a West Indies dressing room who
have yet to be tested in the competition, bar the thrashing they were handed when up against South Africa in their opening match.

Top batsman - Ireland

Niall O'Brien, the pugnacious wicketkeeper, had his bats go missing so will have to borrow someone else's. He is [5.50]. Ed Joyce, at [5.70] has disappointed while Porterfield looks bad value at [5.00]. Kevin O'Brien is [6.40].

Top batsman - West Indies

Chris Gayle is terribly short at [4.00] so, as ever, Shiv Chanderpaul and Ramnaresh Sarwan make greater appeal at [7.00] and [6.00] respectively.

Featured market

If Ireland do pin down West Indies - and they managed to do that against India - then Chanderpaul will relish it. He looks a good bet for 50 at [2.00].

Best bet: back Ireland at [6.00] if they bat first

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Cricket World Cup Betting: India v Ireland

Match Previews / Andrew Hughes / 05 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

The other O'Brien brother in action

"The way that Kevin O’Brien demolished the English on this very pitch would not have been pleasant viewing for one or two of the Indian bowlers..."

Having frightened Bangladesh and toppled England, the Irish have flown the flag for the Associate nations. Can they go one better and beat the tournament favourites?

London Start Time: 09:00

Venue and Conditions
Not a venue that many bowlers will regard with affection, Bangalore features a flat surface which offers no assistance whatsoever and a lightning fast outfield. In two games here in this tournament, England nearly overhauled 338 and Ireland reached 327 comfortably, so any score of less than 340 will be vulnerable.

Team News
Virender Sehwag has been treated for a minor rib problem in Delhi but isn't considered a serious doubt. India's bowling has looked weak so far, but will they be bold enough to play a fifth specialist bowler, in the form of Ashish Nehra, putting extra pressure on their batsmen? Ireland will almost certainly be unchanged.

Match Odds
Ireland's stunning success on Wednesday renders this game more meaningful and will have ensured that India do not take their opponents lightly. The way that Kevin O'Brien demolished the English on this very pitch would not have been pleasant viewing for one or two of the Indian bowlers and there is no doubt that all of the pressure going into this game is on the home side.

But can the Irish pull off an even bigger shock? It would be quite a spectacle, but cricket punters shouldn't believe in fairy tales and realistically, there is very little chance of an Irish win in Bangalore. India's batsmen will have far too much power and could well post a score in the high 300s against some ordinary bowling. Ireland will fight hard, but class will out and that's why India are [1.04] favourites.

Top Batsman
Yuvraj Singh looked good against England and now that he's found his range, he could be worth backing at [9.0] to be India's top batsman. Kevin O'Brien will be full of confidence, but for top Irish batsman, his brother Niall at [5.5] is a more attractive proposition.

Featured Market
There have been three centuries in two games at this venue so far so we are on fairly safe ground by recommending backing 'Over 82.5' in the Highest Individual Score market at [1.75] or better.

Best Bet:

Yuvraj Singh to top score for India at [9.0]

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Cricket World Cup Results: Ireland matched at 400 before shock win

World Cup Betting / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kevin O'Brien almost single-handedly won the game for Ireland

"Things were hardly looking that bright when Ireland were 111-5 either and England traded at 1.01 for £2.7 million, 1.02 for £2.18 million and plenty of other huge sums at prohibitively short prices."

The first upset of this World Cup took place this afternoon and it was England who found themselves on the wrong end of it...

Ireland caused arguably the greatest Cricket World Cup upset of all time this afternoon when they beat England after being matched at [400.0] In-Play. It's not the first-time that a so-called minnow beats a Test side at a World Cup but it was the manner of the defeat that was such a surprise.

The 327 that England posted courtesy of good contributions from Jonathan Trott (92) and Ian Bell (81) would have probably been good enough to beat the very best sides in the world and Ireland got off to the worst possible start when skipper William Porterfield departed for a duck. Things were hardly looking that bright when Ireland were 111-5 either and England traded at [1.01] for £2.7 million, [1.02] for £2.18 million and plenty of other huge sums at prohibitively short prices. But up stepped Nottinghamshire big-hitter Kevin O'Brien who with nothing to lose decided that playing the remaining 28 overs like the back end of a T20 match was the way to go.

It worked and as the burly right-hander continued to strike boundaries the Ireland price contracted, though it was only really in the last fifth of the innings that Ireland went favourites when needing just over a run a ball. There was late drama when O'Brien was run out for 113 off just 63 balls with Ireland still needing 12 at which point their price went out to [1.46]. But two late boundaries saw them over the line and short-odds on backers were left cursing their bad luck and the famous luck of the Irish who made the most of dropped catches and generally poor fielding.

England are still expected to qualify for the quarter-finals but the 1.02 on them making the next round has become [1.46] whilst Ireland are rated a [5.0] chance from 46 at the start of the game. England's performance has unsurprisingly made the layers on the winner market have a re-think and they've been eased to 14.5 to win the competition for the first time. India at [4.1] and South Africa at [5.3] head the market.

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World Cup Betting: England v Ireland

Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Insatiable thirst for runs. Jonathan Trott won't slack off just because he's up against Ireland

"Kevin Pietersen is 4.00 while Jonathan Trott appeals at 4.70. While some of his teammates may subconsciously relax, Trott is so focussed that he is unlikely to miss a chance for easy runs."

Ed Hawkins takes a look the contest in Bangalore on Wednesday as we await our first tournament upset. But there's bad news for lovers of the underdog, it's not likely to happen here.

Team news

England rarely chuck the baby out of the bath water but after two matches of this World Cup it should be clear that they need to shuffle their bowling pack.

And that means if Stuart Broad is fit to play after a stomach upset then James Anderson should make way.

Anderson has been profligate in the extreme so far as first Holland and then India have tucked into some buffet-style bowling. It is always on the menu when Anderson is in India. In his last seven ODIs in the country he has taken one wicket for 393 runs.

Ireland will hope spinners Andre Botha and George Dockrell repeat the form they showed against Bangladesh. Botha took three for 32 at 3.5 an over and Dockrell two for 23 at 2.3

Indeed, Dockrell, who plays for Somerset, is probably a target for England who like nothing more to pinch talent from across the Irish sea. That is, of course, unless your name is Ed Joyce who was unfairly discarded.

Venue and conditions

England will be grateful that this contest is being played at the Chinnaswamy staium. The surface is flat and true. And the batsmen will be confident on a wicket where they came so close to the highest successful World Cup chase against India. If they bat first they should comfortably post more than 275.

Match odds

Ireland are priced at [29.00] for an upset but it is not a wager that appeals considering they really need a slow turner to try to inflictmisery on the England camp.

Still, there is hope that they can get a foothold, or should that be grip. In Botha and Dockrell they have bowlers capable of causing the kind of panic that India's spinners failed to consistently bring to bear on Sunday.

The sides have met three times and in each of them Ireland have been competitive. In 2006 they were in the game after 20 overs of each innings; in the last World Cup in Providence at 116 for three they had a shout of chasing down 267 and in Belfast they were squeezed out by three runs.

Top batsman - England

With 246 runs Andrew Strauss is an unlikely leader in the top runscorer lists. So no prizes for guessing who gets jolly status at [3.75]. Kevin Pietersen is [4.00] while Jonathan Trott appeals at [4.70]. While some of his teammates may subconsciously relax, Trott is so focussed that he is unlikely to miss a chance for easy runs. If we
can get [2.00] that he scores 50, take it.

Top batsman - Ireland

Joyce would dearly love a score to make England pay for jettisoning him during the last World Cup. The left-hander is [4.70] to be top bat although a better wager may be to back for a half century at around [4.0]. Paul Stirling should relish getting stuck into England's wayward bowlers and is one to watch at [6.00].

Featured market

There were 64 fours in the India v England game at the venue. The [1.51] that there are 43 or more is probably not short enough.

Best bet: J Trott to score a 50, ask for [2.00]

Tags: World Cup betting, Ed Hawkins, Ireland cricket, England cricket,
cricket betting, Kevin Pietersen, Andrew Strauss

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Six Nations Betting Preview: Scotland v Ireland

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Andy Robinson get a response from his players?

"Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I’d much prefer to back the unders in the total points market."

Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?

For someone who relies heavily on statistical analysis, Scotland's encounter with Ireland at Murrayfield on Sunday is somewhat tricky. All the analysis in the world will not gain access in to the minds of the Scottish players, who threw away a gilt-edged opportunity to beat Wales a fortnight ago, and my money with it.

I will confess here that I lost a fair chunk on Andy Robinson's men, but having poured over the match statistics it is fair to say that it was simply one of those things that as a punter one has to take on the chin.

Scotland beat twice as many defenders as Wales in their 24-6 defeat. They made more clean breaks, they offloaded three times as often and made twice as many metres with the ball in hand. Although their scrum creaked at the outset, they turned over Wales twice against the head, too. And yet despite this superiority, and a two-man advantage after Lee Byrne and Bardley Davies were sent to the sin bin, they made 19 errors of such horrendous importance that they came off a distinct second best on the scoreboard.

Robinson was rightly livid, and has made seven changes that look to have strengthened Scotland's hand. Chris Paterson, Scotland's most capped player, will bring some much needed calm at full back, as well as some dead-eyed accuracy with the boot. Half backs Mike Blair and Ruaridh Jackson will bring a bit of devil to Scotland's play going forward and the fit again Richie Gray and Johnnie Beattie, who has recovered from shoulder surgery, will ensure the pack does not take a step backwards. Sean Lamont is also brought in, but as the Northampton back went 20 Tests without scoring a try until he crossed in Paris in round one, he makes Mark Cueto look dangerous.

And yet, as is Scotland's lot in the Six Nations, they have been bitterly unlucky. As a Christian, the God-fearing Euan Murray will not feature, and the best player on the park two weeks ago, Rory Lamont, misses out through injury. Joe Ansbro, who was superb against France and laughable against Wales, is also injured.

For their part, I thought Ireland were just as good as France in Dublin. The 25-22 scoreline reflects that, and if Gordon D'Arcy had not missed that tackle on Aurelien Rougerie in the 53rd minute to send over Maxime Medard, Ireland would probably have won. To show how close the margins are between defeat and victory, the Leinster man made nine tackles in that match, and only missed Rougerie.

Declan Kidney, the Ireland coach, has named Ronan O'Gara at fly-half, suggesting heavily that Ireland intend to play for position and put so much pressure on Scotland that they crack once again. As one punter on Twitter pointed out, however, Ireland have conceded far too many penalties recently for that to be totally effective and this looks to have all the ingredients of an arm-wrestle.

Having crunched the numbers, I firmly believe that this should be a scratch match. My database indicates that matches of similar nature to this in past tournaments have resulted in the home side receiving no more than a three-point start, too. Scotland are by no means bomb-proof, however. Under Robinson they have only twice scored more points in the second half than in the first half, strongly suggesting that the English coach needs to stop his squad eating too many deep-fried Mars bars and do more bleep tests.

This is likely to be an edgy contest, decided by two strong goal-kickers. Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I'd much prefer to back the unders in the total points market. That way if Scotland put in another horror show and collapse in the second half through lack of fitness I will not be so deflated.

Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?...

Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the...

Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?...

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Latest News: Indian Daudaie in Ireland - Take Two

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Carling Nations Cup Betting: Rep of Ireland v Wales

Internationals / Jaymes Monte / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Speed is without a number of key players for his first match in charge.

"Both teams have scored in Ireland’s last four matches while Wales have conceded in each of their last six games, including in a home friendly against Luxembourg."

Gary Speed takes charge of his first game as Wales manager for the Carling Nations Cup opener against Republic of Ireland.

Having been in the job for less than two months Speed is getting his first taste of the frustrations attached to international management. In typical midweek-international-friendly-style a whole spate of first team regulars have pulled out of the Wales squad.

Aaron Ramsey, David Edwards and Ched Evans have withdrawn from an initial squad that was already without Craig Bellamy, Gareth Bale, Boaz Myhill, Craig Morgan and Danny Gabbidon.

Ireland manager Giovanni Trapattoni isn't without similar problems. Robbie Keane and James McCarthy have both pulled out of the Irish squad due to injury.

Although the participating nations, and Sky, are doing their best to promote the Carling Nations Cup as a worthwhile tournament in its own right, the plethora of withdrawals only serves to highlight that the tournamnet is merely a combination glorified friendlies.

And therefore bettors should treat them as such. Republic of Ireland are made the [1.72] favourites to win this Tuesday's opening fixtures with Wales at [6.6] and the draw at [3.7].

The last time the two sides met in Ireland back in 2007 in a European Championships qualifier the home side won 1-0 courtesy of a Stephen Ireland strike. A late Jason Koumas penalty salvaged a point for the Welsh when rivalries were renewed in Cardiff six months later.

Given the absence of so many key players for Wales any play on the match odds should certainly be leaning towards an Ireland victory.

In the goals betting markets over 2.5 goals is priced at [2.3] with unders around [1.75]. Both teams have scored in Ireland's last four matches while Wales have conceded in each of their last six games, including in a home friendly against Luxembourg.

Both teams to score in this match is priced at [2.0] while the over 2.5 selection certainly looks to hold the value for those interested in punting on the goals markets.

Although Speed's task as manager of Wales is to rebuild the side for future years Republic of Ireland are very much in the hunt for qualification for Euro 2012. Trapattoni's focus will centre around establishing his strongest side for next month's home game against Macedonia.

Best Bet:
Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.3]

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Paul Nicholls: Ever wondered how I get my horses over to Ireland?

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Six Nations Betting Preview: Italy v Ireland

Match Previews / Stuart Jones / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Leonardo Ghiraldini's Italy upset Brian O'Driscoll's Ireland?

"Ireland's offensive work this season has been second to none and, with Jonny Sexton pulling the strings, they should pose the kind of threat that the Italians frequently come unstuck against."

With his side decimated by injury, Declan Kidney has been forced to field some lively youngsters for Ireland's trip to Rome. So will BOD and co. get off to a winning start on Saturday? Stuart Jones selects the best bets.

Italy have propped up the Six Nations table in each of the three years Nick Mallett has been at the helm, but, with 2011 being the South African's last season in charge, he will be keener than ever to see the Azurri avoid the dreaded 'wooden spoon'.

Declan Kidney's Ireland are the first side to visit Rome in this year's competition and the Italians will take confidence from the fact that the visitors are missing a number of key players. Ulsterman Stephen Ferris was the latest to add his name to a casualty list that already featured seven other players, with Tommy Bowe, Shane Horgan, John Hayes, Jamie Heaslip, Andrew Trimble, Rob Kearney and Geordan Murphy all missing.

Kidney has come under fire in the past for not blooding youngsters soon enough, but his hand has been forced on this occasion, and the highly-promising Leinster pair of Fergus McFadden and Sean O'Brien get deserved starts. O'Brien has put in some outstanding performances this season, playing a major part in Leinster's impressive Heineken Cup form, and should prove an able replacement for teammate Jamie Heaslip in the number eight jersey.

The fact that the Irish backline is made up largely of Leinster players bodes well for their chances. Their offensive work this season has been second to none and, with Jonny Sexton pulling the strings in the number ten slot, they should pose the kind of attacking threat that the Italians so frequently come unstuck against. The back three of Fitzgerald, Earls and McFadden have pace to burn and the last-named's already mature style of play will inevitably cause the opposition problems.

Matching the physicality of the opposition is never normally a big problem for Nick Mallett's side. Marco Castrogiovanni and co relish a tussle at the set piece and breakdown, whilst inspirational captain Sergio Parisse is amongst the strongest ball carriers in the world.

However, it's an all too familiar story regarding the lack of quality backs at their disposal. First-choice Craig Gower is a long-term absentee and they simply don't have a specialist fly-half to fill that void. On the plus side, they do have a couple of exciting prospects to call upon; classy centre Tommaso Benvenuti has five tries to his name in the Heineken Cup and the emergence of Edoardo Gori at scrum-half has meant that Mauro Bergamasco can sleep easy at night.

Looking back at the last five encounters between the two sides in Rome, it was rather surprising to see just how high scoring previous games had been. The average number of total points came out at 56, with Ireland's 28-17 win in 2005 the lowest scoring encounter.

It's a big ask to expect two sides to come out firing in their first game of the tournament, but the bookies have a tendency to go low on points in fixtures involving Italy, and a bet on over 43.5 points at [1.91] makes plenty of appeal.

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