Showing posts with label views. Show all posts
Showing posts with label views. Show all posts

November 1, 2014

Ryan Moore at the Breeders' Cup: The views on my four rides on Saturday night

22:22 Santa Anita - Telescope

"And he showed what he is capable of over this trip on fast ground when beating Hillstar by seven lengths at Royal Ascot. He comes here in really good nick, and is poised to run a big race."

Ryan Moore has four rides on the second night of the Breeders' Cup including two for his boss Sir Michael Stoute, and here you can read the Betfair Ambassador's exclusive thoughts on his own chances plus those of his main rivals...


To be honest, I'd be lying if I said I've had a good look at the races that I am not riding in. I concentrate on my job, not those of others. Toronado is the form horse in the Mile but it is a very competitive race and he will need luck in running with 14 in the field.

And while Shared Belief is the most likely winner of the Classic, the vibes that I have been hearing have not been overly-positive and he did have a hard race last time.

Here are my views on my mounts and the races I ride in:

19:43 Santa Anita - Dank

This looks a pretty competitive Filly & Mare Turf, with a fair bit of depth to it, so I am pretty surprised to see that Dank is only about a 2-1 chance to win this. Don't get me wrong, I think she is the one to beat on form but the fact is that she came back wrong after finishing well beaten in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Ascot, and she has needed time to get her back on song.

But this is where the boss comes into his own. And when he readies a horse for an international prize from a long way out, then it takes a brave man to bet against him, as we saw again with Hillstar in Canada recently. And he would have had this race in mind for this filly ever since he started nursing her back to health and form, and she certainly appears in real good order at the moment.

She obviously won this race last season but to a large extent I think that we got away with it there, as it was coming to the end of a long campaign, and she had been on the go since May. But we can at least be sure that she comes here a fresh horse, and she felt a very good filly indeed when winning the Beverly D last year. She has a nice stall and has a class edge on these.

But there are no end of serious rivals as Flower Bowl winner Stephanie's Kitten and the progressive Dayatthespa look to pose a decent home challenge, and Just The Judge, Secret Gesture and Fiesolana have chances, too. Just The Judge needs to step up again on her EP Taylor win but clearly has to be respected, while Fiesolona could be troublesome if returning to the form of her Matron Stakes win and lasting home over this longer trip. But I am pretty happy with my filly, and she'd be my best chance of a winner.


21:05 Santa Anita - Dimension

I don't know too much about him to be honest, as he has clearly come a very long way since I rode him to win a Kempton maiden three years ago. But he has obviously developed into a pretty classy sprinter in the States, running well from a wide draw when fifth in this race last year and tuning up for this with a win in Kentucky last time. It looks as if he can be slowly away, which won't be ideal round here, but he appears to have an outside place chance, though he does have a lot to find on form I must admit.

Others look to have more obvious chances, including last year's Morny winner No Nay Never, Reneesgotzip and Undrafted, who ran a great race when fourth in the July Cup. But, in truth, you can give most of these a chance - as is the case in most sprints, I find - and Caspar Netscher looked pretty decent when winning the Nearctic last time and this 6 1/2f could be his trip. But no firm opinions here.

21:43 Santa Anita - The Great War

Given this is on dirt, the Europeans don't have that bad a record in this race, with three winners in the last 12 years or so, but it is obviously a guessing game as to how horses will act on the surface.

I think it is probably fair to say that The Great War hasn't fulfilled early expectations just yet, but he looked good when winning over 6f at the Curragh last time and being a War Front gives you hope that he will handle the surface. But as well as the dirt he has to prove that he stays this trip, as he certainly has a lot of pace. But his pedigree does give you some hope on that score. It's clearly a big ask though, and that is why he is the only European horse in here.

And the home team do look exceptionally strong this year. American Pharoah may be out of the race but the likes of Daredevil and Carpe Diem look above-average juveniles coming into this, as does Upstart, so I'd probably be delighted with a place. Of the two favourites, I would favour Carpe Diem, and he could well be favourite for the Kentucky Derby after this.

22:22 Santa Anita - Telescope

This is one race that the Europeans have tended to dominate, but I'll be honest and say that I think Flintshire is the one to beat. I think 1m4f on fast ground is what he needs, he probably ran a career best in the Arc last time, and he is trained by a genius in Andre Fabre.

Luckily, so is Telescope, and the boss produced Conduit for back-to-back wins in this race, and he resisted the temptation to take this horse to the Arc, so he has been tuning him up for this ever since.

To be straight up, I was a little disappointed by his third in the Juddmonte at the time, but on reflection it probably was a pretty decent run against faster horses over a trip short of his best at York. And he showed what he is capable of over this trip on fast ground when beating Hillstar by seven lengths at Royal Ascot. He comes here in really good nick, and is poised to run a big race.

Aidan has suffered a blow with last year's winner Magician ruled out of this race but the rest of the field should be relieved; he possessed brilliance on his day, and I'd go as far to say that if he had run up to his best in this race, he would have won.

I travelled over to the Woodbine International with Michael Owen, and I felt for him when Brown Panther had to be withdrawn there. That experience wasn't great and, more importantly, these conditions won't ideally play to the horse's strengths and bigger dangers could be Main Sequence, Hardest Core and maybe even Chicquita if they can harness her undoubted, if wayward, talent.

But for me I think Flintshire is the one to beat - he does have the best recent form, for all that he seemingly finds it hard to win - and Fabre successfully trod the same path with Arc fourth and Turf winner Shirocco at Belmont in 2005. I hope that I am wrong though. But whatever way you look at it, it is a pretty competitive race even without Magician, and one likely to be truly-run, too.


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Paul Nicholls: The views on my five runners at Ascot and Wetherby today

15:15 Wetherby - Silviniaco Conti

"This won’t be easy as he has a 10lb penalty today, and I’m sure others in here have targeted this race more and will be fitter than us, but he is a three-time Grade 1 and King George winner and theclass horse of the race and hopefully that will see him through."

It's a busy Saturday for Paul Nicholls with runners at no less than four meetings, and here the Betfair Ambassador talks exclusively about his five chances at Ascot and Wetherby...


13:30 Wetherby - Solar Impulse

Rounded off last season with a good win at Chepstow and I was pleased with his chasing debut at Newton Abbot. Okay, he was beaten at odds-on in a three-runner race, but the outing would have done him the world of good in terms of fitness and experience. That would have been the first time that he had jumped a fence on grass. So while a mark of 135 is plenty high enough on the bare form of that second, I'd hope that he can progress and be competitive here.


13:45 Ascot - Keltus

Proved himself a decent juvenile hurdler last season but hopefully he will develop into a better chaser, and I was certainly encouraged by his second to Court Minstrel on his debut at Newton Abbot, where he jumped nicely. The winner is clearly a smart horse, following up at Cheltenham next time, and I think a mark of 131 is fair. And the step up in trip will suit him, too, as will the ground. Has a good chance.


14:20 Ascot - Ulck Du Lin

Has won over course and distance but that was in heavy ground and I think that he may just struggle today on this faster ground over this trip. But at least he came down the weights last season and has Sean taking 7lb off - and he had his palate cauterised in the summer, too - so you never know.  


15:15 Wetherby - Silviniaco Conti

He is fit enough to do himself justice and he tends to go pretty well when fresh anyway, as he showed when winning this race two years ago. But, with bigger prizes ahead, he will obviously be better for the run and last year showed us that we want to be going into the Betfair Chase with an outing under our belt.

This won't be easy as he has a 10lb penalty today, and I'm sure others in here have targeted this race more and will be fitter than us, but he is a three-time Grade 1 and King George winner and the class horse of the race and hopefully that will see him through.

Even though he clearly enjoyed a very successful time of it, his runs at the back-end puzzled me a bit, and we did find that he was suffering from ulcers when we scoped him after Aintree. But, regardless, he is the one they have to worry about here. I suspect we will see a much fitter Taquin Du Seuil than we saw at Newton Abbot and he could the one for us to beat, though two or three in here will probably be fancying their chances against us first time up.


15:35 Asco - Black Thunder

Needed the run pretty badly on his reappearance at Newton Abbot and will strip a lot fitter today. But in my opinion I still feel that he is handicapped up to the hilt, and ideally he wouldn't want the ground to dry up too much more. You clearly can't write him off, as he is a very smart chaser on his day. but I suspect that he may need to come down in the weights and softer ground to be seen to better effect. Maybe in something like the Hennessy, but we will see.


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Paul Nicholls: The views on my three runners in France and Ireland today

15:05 Down Royal - Wonderful Charm

"This has been the plan for him for a while, and hopefully he will go well in a race that has cut up, though he meets three in-form rivals and he doesn't have that much in hand of two of them on official ratings."

Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls sends one raider to France and two to Ireland this afternoon for a couple of races that he has a great record in. Read the Ditcheat handler's exclusive thoughts on their chances here...


14:30 Down Royal - Rocky Creek

We have been lucky enough to win this race four times in recent seasons but this looks the hottest renewal for a long while. The likes of Gold Cup runner-up On His Own, Boston Bob and First Lieutenant are proven Grade 1 horses, while Nicky's Ma Filleule clearly has to be respected after running away with the Topham off a mark of 150 last season.

But hopefully Rocky Creek can take the step forward up to that level this season. He had his niggles and setbacks last season but he still delivered excellent performances in the Hennessy and Argento and - despite getting a case of ringworm before the race - he got us a bit excited when running so well for a long way in the Grand National, I can tell you!

But I just wondered that he wasn't finishing off his races, so we checked him out and gave him a breathing operation in the summer. It is a long season ahead and this is a proper race, but he is in good nick, he went well in a racecourse gallop with Silviniaco Conti at Chepstow last week, and does go well fresh, and this will tell us whether we go to the Hennessy with him or maybe aim higher.


14:45 Auteuil - Zarkandar

Take out Gemix and this Grade 1 lacks strength in depth, so for nearly £140,000 to the winner, we will happily take our chances. After beating The New One in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle in 2013, it was a little disappointing that he didn't get his head in front last season but he ran some excellent races, not least first time up at Ascot when failing by only five lengths to give Annie Power 11lb and when fourth in the World Hurdle.

And he ran ok in his two runs here over the summer. But he has had a good rest since and at one stage we were considering going for the Cesarewitch with him. However, that race came a touch too soon for him but he is in good order here. He runs in blinkers again and the services of Vincent Cheminaud, who is a good young French jockey who I think leads their jockeys' title by 20 or so winners.

Gemix is clearly the one to beat, and you'd have to give last year's winner Reve De Sivola a fair shout if he is at his best, but I think Zarkandar has a big chance. Three miles in heavy ground will be fine for him, he has a strong form chance and we recauterised his palate in the summer, which will hopefully help, too.


15:05 Down Royal - Wonderful Charm

If we have a good record in the JNwine.com Champion Chase then we have a pretty formidable one in this, as we have been lucky enough to win this race for the past six seasons. And we know that we are coming here with a fit and in-form horse with Wonderful Charm after his reappearance win in a good race at Newton Abbot.

I thought that I had him straight enough there, but it was still pleasing to see him get the job done, and I would have thought that would have brought him on again. This has been the plan for him for a while, and hopefully he will go well in a race that has cut up, though he meets three in-form rivals and he doesn't have that much in hand of two of them on official ratings.


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April 27, 2013

Paul Nicholls: The views on my four runners on Sunday afternoon

Paul Nicholls on Mcllhatton;

"But my horse is lightly-raced and improving, and ran a good third to African Gold over 2m4f in the soft at Doncaster last time. Today’s expected better ground will suit him just as well."

Incredibly the new national hunt season is upon us which signals a few months of summer jumping, and here Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls talks about his four runners on Sunday afternoon...


14:40 Ludlow - Oscargo

The new season came around bloody quick! And we are all back to zero again! It was only a weak race and he was the 4-9 favourite but he did it well at Chepstow last time and hopefully he can build on that here. But he will need to with the likes of Spirit River and Bold Chief against him, and this looks a much tougher race than Chepstow. Because of his breathing issues, we keep him to good ground.


15:25 Huntingdon - Mcllhatton

This looks quite a competitive little race and Shernando looks the one to beat. But my horse is lightly-raced and improving, and ran a good third to African Gold over 2m4f in the soft at Doncaster last time. Today's expected better ground will suit him just as well. We deliberately kept him as a novice until this season.


15:45 Ludlow - Spock

Won well over this trip on good ground at Worcester in May. Fell next time out when in with every race at Market Rasen, before finding 2m1f too sharp last time. I don't think he is especially well handicapped, but he is a good/fast ground horse, and this is his trip and his time of year. Goes well when fresh.


17:05 Huntingdon - No Loose Change

Bounced back to form with an impressive five length win at Kempton last time but the handicapper certainly was watching, as he has put him up 11lb. That obviously makes life much tougher today but 3m on good ground are his conditions, so let's hope that he hasn't been handicapped out of it.

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March 12, 2013

Gordon Elliott at Cheltenham: The views on my three Tuesday runners

Gordon Elliott on Carlito Brigante

"The better the ground, the better a performance I would be expecting to see from him so I am just hoping that no more rain materialises and the track dries out."

Day one of the Cheltenham Festival sees Cullentra House Stables with three runners at the Prestbury Park venue. Cause of causes runs for the Timeform Betfair racing club in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and we get Gordon's thoughts on all of his runners here...


13:30 Cheltenham - Cause of Causes

We were disappointed with his run in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February, where he finished a well beaten 16th of 21 runners behind today's favourite My Tent or Yours. The tacky ground and the slow pace of that race certainly didn't suit him and with a faster pace and a more suitable surface likely here, I would be hoping for a better performance.

There is no doubt that this is his toughest assignment to date, however I do think that if he can put his experience and the battling characteristics he has shown this season, to good use here he could be very competitive. He ran very well here in the Racing Post hurdle last November finishing third of 18 runners behind Olofi, and he was only beaten 3 ¼ lengths at the finish. We know he handles the track, regular pilot Davy Condon is booked to take the ride and with soft ground forecast I'd be hopeful of a good performance.


16:40 Cheltenham - Mae's Choice

She's been in good form at home since finishing a relatively disappointing fifth of eight runners behind Nicky Henderson's Ma Filleule, in a Grade Two mares hurdle at Warwick back in February. Prior to that she had been running well, and she won a Grade Three hurdle at the Punchestown Festival in 2012 under Paul Carberry, who is booked to take the ride again.

I have no doubt that Willie Mullins exceptional mare Quevega will be very hard to beat, and if she could manage to finish in the first five or six I would be very happy. She will need to produce a career best effort and will need to improve significantly on what she has shown to date to get into the frame. However I'd be confident that the trip of 2m4f and the forecast soft ground should suit her, and if she takes to the track I'd be hopeful of a good run.


17:15 Cheltenham - Carlito Brigante

He has been in great form since his recent run on the all-weather at Dundalk, and this race has been the target for him all season. He loves it around here, and seems to come to life when he runs at this track. He won a competitive novice chase here over a similar distance in October beating Paul Nicholls' Domtaline by a short head, and he was a very good winner of the Coral Cup back in 2011 off an OR of 140.

He gets in here off a mark of 137 and he looks well treated on the face of things, and my only worry would be the forecast soft ground. The better the ground, the better a performance I would be expecting to see from him so I am just hoping that no more rain materialises and the track dries out. His regular rider Davy Russell takes the ride, and his experience will count for a lot in a race of this nature. I'd be disappointed if he couldn't go close, but his dependency for good ground will play a large part in any chance he may have.

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March 9, 2013

Gordon Ellliott: The views on my weekend runners at Gowran and Naas

Gordon Elliott on Barneys Honour

"He has to contend with a full 16lbs rise in the weights here and he will have to improve significantly from Navan to overcome that."

The weekend's action sees Gordon with four runners, and after a superb double last Saturday at Navan and his in-form string gearing up for the Cheltenham Festival next week, we get his thoughts on their chances...


Saturday

15.55 Gowran Park - Barneys Honour

I was very pleased with how he won at Navan last Saturday, but unfortunately we couldn't get another run into him before his new chase mark of 118 came into effect, because the ground had gone against him at Downpatrick on Wednesday. He has to contend with a full 16lbs rise in the weights here and he will have to improve significantly from Navan to overcome that.

He came out of the race at Navan very well and he has been in good form since then and thankfully we have Paul Carberry booked to take the ride again. It looks like an extremely competitive race, but there's a big pot on offer and I'd be delighted if he could finish in the money. He ran well here over hurdles in January finishing second of 11 runners behind Rory Anna only beaten 4 ½ lengths, so we know he handles the track, and with soft ground forecast he should have conditions to suit.


17.35 Gowran Park - Rockdown

He finished second on his debut outing in a point-to-point at Nenagh at the end of January, and then he won well next time out at Killaloe on February 24, staying on nicely to land the spoils. He will have to improve on what he has been showing us at home to be competitive and I'm just not quite sure if he will be as well suited to bumpers as I'd like, but the experience will certainly do him no harm.

Both of his point-to-points were over three miles on soft ground, so he will relish the conditions and the extended 2m2f should also be in his favour. Nina Carberry is booked to take the ride on the same day she saddles her first runner as a trainer, and having such an experienced rider will help the horse immensely. He may be one to keep an eye in the future, and I'm just hoping for a good showing from him on his first time under rules.


Sunday

14.10 Naas - Shrapnel

He can be a bit tricky, and his form has been a bit in and out of late. He had an off day when he ran at Clonmel in February finishing a well beaten 30l, fifth of seven runners behind Willie Mullins Inis Island. He had been running very well up to then, winning two on the bounce at Galway and Fairyhouse, and then finishing a very respectable second to Si C'Etait Vrai at Punchestown in January.

I have no doubt he is a very talented horse and if he was on a going day here he would have a good chance. It looks a very competitive race, and he has to give 4lbs to Mullins' talented mare Zuzka. She may be hard to beat on those terms, and with the likes of Clonbannon Lad and Moscow Mannon also in opposition he will have to be at the top his game to land this. Davy Russell is booked to take the ride, and if he can return to the same for he was showing at the end of last year I would be quite hopeful.


15.35 Naas - Tarquinius

He's been in good form since finishing a head second to Jandanli in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park towards the end of January. He was ready to run in the Eider Chase at Newcastle on February 23 but unfortunately the card was abandoned on the day. He was due to run off an OR of 136 that day, but gets in here off a mark of 129 so he is definitely a better handicapped horse on this side of the water.

He's gone up 6lbs in the weights since the Thyestes but he is ultra-consistent and is as tough as they come, and if he can reproduce the form he has been showing of late he should be in the mix. He will relish the forecast soft ground and he stays all day so three miles will be right up his street, and with Davy Condon booked to take the ride I'd be looking for another solid effort.

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