BNP Paribas Open Men's Betting: Out of form Querrey worth taking on in Indian Wells

"Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately."

Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5

The tennis action in the Californian desert begins in earnest on Thursday, with the start of the men's first round at the BNP Paribas Open and Sean Calvert selects the best bets...

There are 16 first round matches scheduled for today at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, with play beginning at 7pm UK time.

Conditions here always play on the slow side for a hard court due to the gritty, Plexipave surface that fluffs up the balls and leads to the kind of high bounce that Rafa Nadal loves to encounter.

There's no Rafa today, but there are several opportunities for punters on Thursday, starting with a chance to take on the out of form Sam Querrey.

Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately.

He also dropped a set to world number 647 Tigre Hank in Acapulco in his only win since Melbourne and he faces Alex Kuznetsov at around 5am UK time tomorrow, who defeated Querrey in their most recent meeting on a hard court in Dallas a couple of years ago.

Kuznetsov is coming off the back of a good run in Memphis on indoor hard where he beat David Goffin and Mikhail Kukushkin and the +3.5 games on the handicap or lay of Querrey 2-0 look the options here.

At the more palatable time of around 9pm in the UK there's another clash of two American's between Michael Russell and Donald Young and I like the idea of backing the veteran vest-wearer in this one.

Russell has a pretty good record of 7-4 here at Indian Wells and the lack of pace in the courts should suit the more consistent player and Young's flashy style may not the best in these conditions.

The older American has won four of the last five and seven of their 11 match-ups and after a good run in Memphis, where he beat Lleyton Hewitt, Russell has endured tough three set losses to Radek Stepanek and John Isner and this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Finally I like the idea of taking a chance on Dusan Lajovic at a tempting 2.56/4 against the often wildly errant Lukas Rosol when they meet for the first time at around 10.30pm UK time tonight.

The 23-year-old Serbian has broken into the top-100 recently and is on the upgrade, which he proved again in qualifying here with two wins achieved without dropping serve once and Rosol may also find it tough to break him.

Rosol is currently 68th on the list of return games won in 2014 - one ahead of John Isner - so he's unlikely to break often against a man in a good serving groove so the +2.5 games on Lajovic at 1.8 appeals here, as does the outright on the Serb.

As far as shorter-priced favourites are concerned today I like Santiago Giraldo and Lleyton Hewitt as the most reliable-looking two on Thursday.

Recommended Bets
Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5
Back Russell to beat Young at 1.9520/21
Back Lajovic +2.5 games to beat Rosol at 1.8

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Gordon Elliott: My views on High Net Worth at Gowran today

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Timeform Radio Tip: Barron sprinter worth waiting for.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see further progress from him this season, and an entry in the Group 3 Sapphire Stakes suggests that the shrewd Yorkshire handler thinks the same. With an excellent draw, an ideal stalking run-style and a jockey riding with renewed confidence, everything looks in place for a huge run from Long Awaited."

It's Derby day, and Rory Delargy has several fancies on the Epsom card. 

David Barron did this column a favour when winning the Zetland Gold Cup during the week, and he's taken to repeat that feat courtesy of Long Awaited in the Investec Dash at Epsom today (15:15). The gelding has improved significantly since joining Barron from Roger Varian, and while he was well held after being hampered in this race last season, that disappointment was forgotten when he won over C&D later in the summer, and he showed further improvement when placed in contrasting ground conditions at Haydock on his final 2 starts last season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see further progress from him this season, and an entry in the Group 3 Sapphire Stakes suggests that the shrewd Yorkshire handler thinks the same. With an excellent draw, an ideal stalking run-style and a jockey riding with renewed confidence, everything looks in place for a huge run from Long Awaited, granted that little bit of luck in running which is crucial in such races.

Most of the fancied horses are drawn high, and that's where the race should develop, but there's a chance that congestion will result from such a scenario, and if there's one horse I'd want to save on, it would be Judge 'n Jury. Ron Harris' gelding checked out very tamely at York last time, which may be indicative of a problem, and makes him a risky proposition, but he has the speed to lead in the early stages, and if back in the groove would be capable of going close. At odds around 30, he's worth a tickle, and should at least trade short after a couple of furlongs, even if he does fold like he did on the Knavesmire.

However Thomas Brown fares on Judge 'n Jury, he looks to have a decent chance in the 6f handicap at 17:25, for which Robert Cowell's Compton looks to have been laid out. In need of his return at Newbury, he showed up much better at York last time, while still fading late as if short of peak fitness. Likely to be cherry-ripe now, he has the requisite low draw to take a good position, and can make it third time lucky for his new yard. He's just 3 lb above his last winning mark, and Brown looks exceptional value for his 5 lb claims.

Recommendations:

All at Epsom

Back Long Awaited @ 7.613/2 in the 15:15 (NAP)
Back Judge 'n Jury @ 28.027/1 in the 15:15 (Lay stake back at 10.0)
Back Compton @ 10.09/1 in the 17:25 (NB)

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Cheltenham Gold Cup Result: Bobs Worth floors Gold Cup rivals

"...Geraghty never looked unduly fazed and, upon presenting Bobs Worth to lead between the last two fences, the result never looked in serious doubt."

The 11/4 favourite Bobs Worth has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in a thrilling renewal at a soggy Prestbury Park.

Ridden by Barry Geraghty for Nicky Henderson, Bobs Worth was initially held off the early pace, which was set by 2011 winner Long Run with last year's Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster in close attendance. 

Long Run, who seemed to benefit from the widely talked-about fitting of cheekpieces, jumped and travelled better than usual in front, but was joined by Sir des Champs (ridden by late replacement AP McCoy) early on the final circuit, with Silviniaco Conti and The Giant Bolster stalking and Bobs Worth not seeming to go as fluently as some others.

As they raced down the hill, the quintet of Long Run, Sir des Champs, Silviniaco Conti The Giant Bolster and Bobs Worth started to pull away. Silviniaco Conti departed three out when landing too steeply, hindering Bobs Worth in the process and leaving him a handful of lengths off the pace as Sir des Champs and Long Run went hell-for-leather turning in.

However, Geraghty never looked unduly fazed and, upon presenting Bobs Worth to lead between the last two fences, the result never looked in serious doubt. He ran out a seven-length winner from a tired Sir des Champs, with Long Run another two and three-quarter lengths behind. The Giant Bolster was fourth.

Afterwards, Geraghty's was quick to give his thoughts to JT McNamara, the amateur jockey seriously injured on yesterday's Cheltenham card. 

Bobs Worth returned at a BSP of 3.76, and can be backed at 6.25/1 for the 2014 renewal.

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Davis Cup Semi-Finals: Much-changed Spanish side worth opposing

"The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there."

Fresh from his daily US Open tipping exploits Sean Calvert is back to preview the weekend's Davis Cup semi-finals, and our man fancies the USA to put up a good fight against Spain...

The ATP Tour takes a break this week following the US Open, but it's still a big week for tennis as attention switches to the Davis Cup.

It's the World Group semi finals and the World Group play offs this weekend and the big matches are Spain vs USA and Argentina vs Czech Republic in a familiar-looking semi final line-up.

Argentina and Spain were last year's finalists, while the USA have won the Davis Cup on 32 occasions and the Czech Republic have been regulars in the latter stages in recent years.

The Spain vs USA tie is a fascinating one, with the Spanish hosts an obvious pick on the clay of Parque Hermanos Castro in Gijon, but they are without the injured Rafa Nadal and soon to be retired Juan Carlos Ferrero, plus there's no Fernando Verdasco or Feli Lopez.

So they go with David Ferrer and Nico Almagro in the singles and Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez in the doubles, which is still a strong-looking side, but far from unbeatable.

The USA team has problems of its own without the retired Andy Roddick and Mardy Fish, who has health issues, so they rely on John Isner and Sam Querrey in singles and the world number one doubles team the Bryan brothers.

Isner has an excellent record in Davis Cup, winning his last four ties in a row all on clay against the likes of Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Gilles Simon, plus he took Novak Djokovic to five sets on clay as well.

Every Davis Cup match that Isner and Querrey have played so far has been on clay, so they know their way around the red dirt courts and won't be phased by facing a potentially jaded Ferrer and an Almagro that still has it all to prove in really big matches.

The Bryan brothers have only ever lost two Davis Cup doubles matches and the last one was back in 2008, so the USA side will surely take at least one point into Sunday.

The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there.

The Argentina vs Czech Republic tie hinges largely on the fitness of Juan Martin Del Potro, who has been advised by doctors to rest his injured wrist for two weeks, but who is desperate to play and has said that he will.

The hosts have Leonardo Mayer standing by, but if Delpo is either below par or unable to play both singles rubbers the hosts could be vulnerable to their first ever defeat at the Parque Roca.

David Nalbandian, who usually forms a crack doubles team with Eduardo Schwank in Davis Cup is also out injured and so Carlos Berlocq comes in for his debut in this competition.

The Czechs, as ever, will rely on Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek, presumably in doubles as well as singles, as they have Lukas Rosol and Ivo Minar as their other two nominations and they have never played a Davis Cup doubles tie.

Berdych and Stepanek have a fine Davis Cup doubles record as a partnership and they should be too good for the rookie Argentine pair and Berdych has a 6-0 record over Juan Monaco, so this will probably come down to the Berydch v Delpo clash.

And let's not overlook Stepanek, who has a 3-1 career head-to-head record over Del Potro and 4-2 over Monaco, who he also beat in Cincy recently.

Monaco did take care of Steps easily on clay though in Rome this year and you would expect him to do so again, but the value for me lies with the Czechs.

This should be another very close match and the back to lay value is with the Czech Republic at around 2.89/5.

Recommended Bets

Lay Spain at 1.152/13 with a view to trading
Back to lay Czech Republic at 2.89/5

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Going for Knockouts in Tournaments: Is It Worth It?

Poker Strategy / Short-Stacked Shamus / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Knocking out an opponent in a tournament sure feels good, but does it always pack that much of a punch to do so?

In a bounty tournament, it might seem worth going out of our way in certain instances to try to score a knockout. But in a non-bounty tournament should we ever be going out of our way to eliminate someone?

So-called "bounty" or "knockout" tournaments have become increasingly popular over recent years, especially when it comes to online poker. These are tourneys for which part of the prize pool is set aside to reward players with a certain amount for eliminating an opponent along the way, with the remainder going to the top finishers as in non-bounty tourneys. Evidence of the increasing popularity of such events is the addition of a non-bracelet "bounty" tourney to the 2012 WSOP schedule in which cash prizes will be awarded to players eliminating opponents who have won WSOP bracelets in the past.

Such a format often will affect a player's strategy, perhaps encouraging one to seek opportunities to eliminate opponents where one wouldn't otherwise in order to secure bounties. After all, depending on how the payouts are scheduled, it is often possible to collect enough bounties to turn a profit in a bounty tournament without even surviving into the money.

The emergence of these bounty tourneys invites us to think about the inherent value of eliminating opponents even when there are no bounties for doing so. We know there exists some value for us whenever a player is knocked out in a tournament, as that occurrence always moves us one step closer to the cash or, if the bubble has already burst, one spot higher on the payout schedule. But how valuable is it, really, to eliminate an opponent during the pre-bubble -- i.e., early and middle stages -- of a tournament?

In a bounty tournament, it might seem worth going out of our way in certain instances to try to score a knockout. But in a non-bounty tournament should we ever be going out of our way to eliminate someone?

Until relatively recently, it was sometimes suggested by tourney pros and other strategists that in freeze-out tourneys with standard payout schedules, eliminating an opponent was always to be considered a positive play. Such thinking would encourage players with above-average stacks to call all-in shoves by short-stacked opponents even with so-so holdings in the hopes of reducing the field by one.

However, as multi-table tournaments grew into the most popular form of poker over the last decade a more sophisticated approach to such a question developed, with the resulting advice often suggesting that in fact it often is not worth it to go out of our way to try to eliminate an opponent, particularly during the early stages but also later on as well.

By "going out of our way" I mean playing a hand in a way that is different than how we would normally play it if not for the prospect of eliminating a player. Say the blinds are 100/200 (no antes yet) and a late-position player shoves for 1,000. It folds to us in the big blind where we have a hand like Qd-7c.

Normally we'd toss such a hand away in the face of a 5x raise without a second thought, but say we have a healthy stack of 7,500 and find ourselves considering whether or not to gamble, with the possibility of knocking out the short-stacked player having entered into our thinking as another factor worth considering.

Now every situation is unique -- perhaps that's Jason Mercier doing the shoving and knocking him out would be an especially positive play in terms of improving our chances of succeeding at the table. Then again, giving Mercier a "courtesy double-up" would be especially bad not just for us but for everyone else, too.

But looking at the situation in a less specific way, calling in such spots is overall a very poor play and should generally be avoided. Mike Caro once made this point by quantifying the reward for eliminating a player and comparing that to what we're risking to make the call. The risk is easy to determine -- in my example, it would be committing 800 more chips to call. The reward of adding 1,300 chips for taking that risk is easy to calculate, too. But what extra reward is there for eliminating an opponent, too?

According to Caro, not much. Especially if we are early in the tournament, but really even later, too. That's because the reward we get for knocking out a player isn't just ours -- it is also shared by everyone else in the tournament!

As Caro points out, "whatever value eliminating this player adds to the expectations of all players, you... will profit only the same as the others will." In other words, if there are 51 players left, you're splitting the "reward" of knocking out your opponent with everyone else -- i.e., you're getting only 1/50th of whatever value that has.

Thus if you weren't normally going to call a 5x raise with Qd-7c, the fact that you might knock out an opponent by doing so shouldn't be encouraging you to act otherwise.

All is situation-dependent, of course, and oftentimes a late-position push by a short stack can indicate an especially wide range that might make calling with an average starting hand correct. But if this isn't a bounty tournament, don't make a marginal call just to try to reduce the field by one, particularly early on. Because while knocking someone out might feel good, the extra benefit for doing so usually doesn't translate into much more value for us.

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Champion Chase: Big Zeb worth chance to bounce back at odds

Ante-post / Adam Brookes / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

2010 Champion Chase hero Big Zeb

"...owing to the current disparity in prices, it’s Colm Murphy’s runner who makes most appeal as an ante-post back proposition."

With current prices in mind, Timeform's Adam Brookes believes he's found the value bet in the second-day feature of this year's Cheltenham Festival, the Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Sizing Europe's 15-length victory over Big Zeb in the recent Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown has seen the reigning champion chaser establish a 7 lb edge over his rival on Timeform ratings, the 172 figure he achieved matching his winning effort in last year's main event. It's not surprising that trainer Henry de Bromhead has been quoted as saying how the horse is like a child to him, Sizing Europe's record since being sent chasing aged seven quite staggering (yet to finish out of the places, winning four Grade 1s, three Grade 2s and a Grade 3) and, judged on his latest authoritative victory, the trainer can look forward to a few more big days yet. A seemingly bombproof sound jumper/strong traveller, Sizing Europe is undoubtedly the one they will all have to beat at Cheltenham in five weeks' time.

Another modern day Irish legend, Moscow Flyer, was the last 11-year-old to win the race when regaining his crown in 2005 and Big Zeb aims to achieve an identical feat this time round having found Sizing Europe five lengths too good last year. Big Zeb finished runner-up (to Golden Silver) in the Tied Cottage a year ago too, the first of two verdicts he has over Sizing Europe (the current head-to-head score is 2-2) and, although he ran to a figure some 12 lb below his Timeform master rating in the race this time round, he was travelling as well as the winner for most of the race and might just have got bogged down in the ground (the second time he hasn't been at his best on heavy going).

With a Master Minded-shaped hole in this year's Champion Chase, and a field size that will probably fail to match the 10 runners averaged since 2000, stiffest opposition to the 'Big Two' is highly likely to come from Finian's Rainbow. Last year's Arkle runner-up produced a tremendous turn of foot when getting back up to beat Wishfull Thinking and Oiseau de Nuit having made a bad mistake four out on his seasonal return at Kempton, and he showed himself a high-class chaser when finding only Somersby too good in the VC Chase at Ascot just under a month later. However, while admitting that similar comments could have been applied to Sizing Europe before his Champion Chase win, he remains with a bit to prove at the highest level, and there's also the possibility that he'll struggle to get his own way in front with Sizing Europe in opposition.

Somersby is currently second in on Timeform ratings but he also holds the same status for the Ryanair and, with him being having been beaten at the shorter option at all of the last three Cheltenham Festivals, that race should be his preferred target. The Ryanair could also be the preferred destination for Gauvain, I'msiningtheblues, the Irish pair Realt Dubh and Blazing Tempo, and Paul Nicholls' Kauto Stone.

With that in mind, and the strong likelihood that both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof will go for the Arkle, the champion trainer could well have a live contender for the Champion Chase frame in the shape of Hold Fast. Graham Wylie's eight-year-old impressed with his jumping when readily taking a Sandown handicap on just his second start for Nicholls and, though he has a fair bit to find with the form principals, he's already rated higher than the David Pipe duo I'm So Lucky and Dan Breen, and he has the potential to leapfrog the likes of stablemate Ghizao (lost his way), Forpadydeplaster (hasn't won since 2009 Arkle), Wishfull Thinking (seemingly has breathing issues), and Oiseau de Nuit (has been let down by jumping) as the most interesting outsider.

While Sizing Europe clearly deserves his place as strong favourite in his bid to emulate the likes of Badsworth Boy, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again and, more recently, Master Minded by winning the Champion Chase for two years in succession, it is worth remembering that he was somewhat advantaged by a positive ride last year and there's the overriding feeling that the market's reaction to the Tied Cottage was excessive. It would be no surprise were Big Zeb to finish much closer to him next month and, owing to the current disparity in prices, it's Colm Murphy's runner who makes most appeal as an ante-post back proposition, with him likely to be trading at a shorter price come March 14. With dangers thin on the ground, it may even pay to also back Big Zeb for a place nearer the time, when anything over [1.7] would be considered value.

Recommendation

Back Big Zeb @ [7.6] in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

The highlight of the weekend is the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown on Sunday which features a clash between champion chaser Sizing Europe and the horse whose crown he took at Cheltenham last March, Big Zeb.........

With the Cheltenham Festival only six weeks away, Timeform's Adam Brookes previews the Ryanair Chase on Thursday March 15 and highlights a runner he believes to be value at the current prices......

Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at one of the betting features of the weekend, Saturday's three-mile Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster......

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PDC World Cup Betting: English foes are worth opposing

Darts / Jaymes Monte / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Burnett can help Webster and Wales go one step further.

"Despite an obvious respect for each other’s game and their eagerness to suppress any suggestions of a conflict, Lewis and Taylor are not bessie mates."

England are the strong favourites, but fell at the first hurdle last time. Can Taylor and Lewis make amends? Jaymes Monte doesn't think so...

I don't blame punters for making England their odds-on favourite for the 2012 PDC World Cup. They certainly tick all the boxes that an odds-on favourite should. Their team of two is made up of the current World Champion and the current world number one, they've won the last four PDC World Championship titles between them and their combined prize money for the last 24 months is well in excess of £1 million. They are Phil Taylor and Adrian Lewis.

But, as Taylor found out last year, this unfamiliar format can throw up its fair share of shocks. Camaraderie, companionship and solidity within a team can get you far in this tournament.

When it was last played, in 2010, three of the four semi-finalists could certainly put a large part of their success down to team ethics. Spanish duo Antolin Alcinas and Carlos Rodriguez are nowhere near being amongst the best eight players in the world, but saw off England and Scotland, amongst others, en route to the semis.

The rapport between Barrie Bates and Mark Webster was enough to see the former reach only the second major final of his career, while the calming effect that Co Stompe had on Raymond van Barneveld's game has been highlighted by Barney's continued downward spiral since the Netherlands' success.

So, rather than taking the traditional approach and looking at form lines, head-to-heads, etcetera; we need to look a little deeper into this one and to the relationships within teams.

Firstly, we'll dismiss England at odds of around [1.7]. Despite an obvious respect for each other's game and their eagerness to suppress any suggestions of a conflict, Lewis and Taylor are not bessie mates. They're each too fiercely competitive for their relationship to be classified as anything other than purely professional. Maybe they don't hate each other, any more, but I doubt either man will be inviting the other round for dinner any time soon.

Paul Nicholson and Simon Whitlock are the only nation in the top six of the betting that are represented by the same two men as last time. For that reason they should be respected, but I'm not convinced that The Asset is a real team player, and so at odds of [4.5] we'll swerve the Aussies too.

Scotland are third favourites in the betting at [9.0] and are the first to turn my head. Peter Wright, born and raised in England but with Scottish grandparents, will partner Gary Anderson in this year's World Cup. Anderson often looks like he needs an arm around his shoulder, a kick up the backside or someone to tell him a joke. Snakebite can provide all three, but can also fling a fair arrer himself. They're not my main selection, but I will be taking some of that [9.0] on the Scots.

Fourth in the betting are defending champions Netherlands at odds of [10.0]. Quite frankly, I wouldn't touch them at that price with someone else's money. Without Stompe by his side I feel Barney would need someone of equally calming and jovial demeanour to successfully defend this trophy. Unfortunately Vincent van der Voort does not posses any of those characteristics. Quite the opposite in fact, and, far from them winning the thing, I'm worried about an early round exit for the Dutch.

Now, onto my bet of the weekend. Last year's runner-up Mark Webster is this year joined by his PDC World Championship first round conqueror, and good friend, Richie Burnett to make up the Wales team.

Both players are in good form, as we saw at Alexandra Palace and was reiterated by solid performances at the recent Benidorm Players Championships. But, more importantly, they are the type of player that can thrive in this format. Each man often needs a little gee-up and each one can beat any other player in the game when on form. Webster's relationship with Bates helped them to the final in 2010; his relationship with Burnett, and the extra quality the 1995 World Champion possesses, can take them one step further this time around.

Best Bet:
Back Wales to win PDC World Cup of Darts @ [13.0]

Recommended Bets:
Lay England to win PDC World Cup of Darts @ [1.7]
Back Scotland to win PDC World Cup of Darts @ [9.0]

Drama enveloped Lakeside on Saturday but we're not done just yet as Jaymes Monte picks out his best bet for the BDO World Championship final......

Jaymes Monte looks at the Lakeside semi-finals and picks out his best bet of the day......

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Golf News: Tiger bets are still worth bagging

General / Ralph Ellis / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wililams and Woods in happier times

"Williams may be off the Woods bag now, but somebody else will pick it up and start collecting those ten per cents."

Tiger Woods has parted company with his long serving (suffering?) caddy but, as Ralph Ellis explains, it's still too early to write off the former-world number one.

Quiz question: Name New Zealand's most successful sportsman. Maybe it would be Richie McCaw or Mils Muliaina who both have 94 caps for the All Blacks? Then again Jonah Lomu would have to be the most iconic rugby player from the Islands. In cricket Richard Hadlee probably comes top of the list.

Wrong all round. The Kiwi who's made the most money from sport is a golfer who has never swung a club in anger at a major competition. Steve Williams has picked up a fortune out of caddying for Tiger Woods - estimated at around £20million as his take from 10 per cent of the former world number one's prize money.

No more. Woods has just ditched the man who carried his bag for 13 of 14 Major wins. It's a split that's been on the cards since Williams, whose wife was close friends with Tiger's ex Elin, made comments last year about his boss's personal life as his world was unravelling.

Williams will now go full time with Australian Adam Scott, for whom he worked at the US Open and The Open. Meanwhile the top caddies are already lining up to see who gets the gig to replace him. Dustin Johnson's caddie Joe LaCava is thought to be the man Woods wants, although ironically the other name in the frame is Scott's former bagman Moline Navarro.

At Sandwich, Scott was full of enthusiasm for the contribution he thought Williams could make. After two days, when the Aussie was one under and in contention, he was telling we reporters: "Steve's got experience and if he can say the right word here, or pick the right club there, it could make all the difference." Sadly it didn't, as he finished up tied 25th and seven over. The conclusion is that however good a caddie Williams was for all those years, it was Tiger's golf that really made the difference!

Betfair's market doesn't fancy their chances at the USPGA either - Scott is an outsider at [70.0]. So the big question remains when Tiger will return and just how good he'll be when that happens. He is now as short as [1.02] in the Specials market to go another year without winning his 15th Major and the people who backed that back in January at even money are sitting pretty.

I'm not sure that even if Woods does return to play in the USPGA he'll be ready to win. But I do fancy laying him to finish the year without a PGA Tour victory at as low as [1.3]. Now down to 20 in the latest world rankings, there's so much pride at stake for him, and the man who will make the biggest difference to Tiger is not his caddy, but his coach Sean Foley who has been remodelling his swing to put less stress on his knees. Foley's been doing that for nearly a year now, and according to his other current star pupil Justin Rose that's about the amount of time it takes for swing changes to take effect.

Williams may be off the Woods bag now, but somebody else will pick it up and start collecting those ten per cents. There could yet be more big money to be earned.

Five things you might not know about Adam Scott

1. Born July 1980 in Adelaide, dad Phil was an ex pro golfer whose career was spoiled by a motorcycle accident when he was 19. He then ran a company called Mascot golf that manufactured wooden drivers, fairway woods and putters.

2. Mum was also a single figure handicap golfer, so Adam got the bug. He was 13 the first time he beat his dad by scoring under 70 at their local club.

3. Greg Norman helped mentor his early career and advised him to play the European Tour before going to America. He lived in London for seven years and developed a passion for architecture and design. Sir Norman Foster is his favourite.

4. Voted in the top five for a magazine poll to find the "sexiest male golfer", he has dated Ana Ivanovic since splitting with long time girlfriend Marie Kojzar and Maria Sharapova has said she has fantasies about him

5. He's got homes on Australia's Gold Coast and in Crans sur Sierre in Switzerland where he's neighbours with Sergio Garcia - although he says they've never both been there on the same day.

We may have seen some recent shocks at the Majors but the Senior British Open tends to be dominated by the game's elder leading lights. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up a stellar field for this week's event....

Ralph Ellis explains why the likes of Lee Westwood will have to put up with questions about his world ranking until he wins at least one Major....

Mr Woods has shown that golf is still his no.1 priority but while he searches for his A-game, Westwood, Donald et al are the best bets for major glory...

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La Liga Betting: Athletic Bilbao and Sevilla worth watching

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Another starry night for Fernando? Llorente will lead Athletic Bilbao's charge at Sevilla's exposed defence

"Athletic Bilbao’s most recent six games at San Mames have each turned up exactly three goals."

Tobias Gourlay has been flat out trying to keep up with all that the Primera Division action this week, but he is still not as stretched as Sevilla's defence.

Real Mallorca v Valencia (Saturday 1700 GMT)

Valencia have won more points from losing positions this season than any other team in La Liga. Unai Emery's team leave their comebacks late too, scoring result-changing goals in eight of their last ten matches. They couldn't do it against Barcelona in midweek, but Real Mallorca are altogether more forgiving opponents.

Barcelona v Real Zaragoza (Saturday 1900 GMT)

Pep Guardiola went into hospital after Barcelona got back from their successful midweek trip to Valencia. The league leaders' coach has had a back problem for a while, but it flared up on Wednesday night and he might well have to miss Saturday evening's match at the Camp Nou.

In theory, they would miss his sharp tactical analysis. In practice, they probably would not need it. Barca have won their last 10 at the Camp Nou and been ahead by half-time in seven of their last nine there. The XI that starts the game should be the one to finish it as a contest against Real Zaragoza.

The visitors have been avoiding defeat on their travels since Javier Aguirre started coaching them (W1-D4-L2) but they are not scoring regularly enough - only five times in the seven games - to trouble the champions.

Barcelona/Barcelona is [1.47] in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Levante v Espanyol (Sunday 1600 GMT)

Luis Garcia did an amazing thing last season, getting Levante promoted. When he took charge in 2008, the club had just been relegated and forced to release more than 90% of the squad. He built a solid, hardworking side, despite being allowed only free transfers and loan signings. Rafa Benitez was impressed and reportedly interested in taking Garcia to Inter with him. If only.

Garcia stayed in eastern Spain and has been defying the odds again this season. The Valencians are 13th in the table, having gone W4-D1-L1 in recent weeks, home and away. They have only been beaten by Real Madrid. At the Ciutat de Valencia they have won 5/7 over a longer period.

Espanyol lost their last away match 4-0 at Osasuna and have been beaten in 4/6 outside Catalonia, conceding 13 goals along the way. Tuesday's home defeat to Mallorca was a fourth in five games anywhere and Mauricio Pochettino's young Parakeets are not as chirpy as they were before Christmas.

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla (Sunday 1800 GMT)

Sevilla's last four away games have produced 20 goals. Gregorio Manzano was not able to sign the central midfielder he needs to shield his defence and must be grateful for an upturn in the potency of his attack.

Athletic Bilbao's most recent six games at San Mames have each turned up exactly three goals. So long as their talismanic striker, Fernando Llorente, is fully recovered from the head injury he received last weekend - a goal in midweek suggests he is - there is no compelling reason to suppose this match will not go the same way. Over 2.5 Goals is an even-money shot.

Racing Santander v Real Madrid (Sunday 2000 GMT)

A week ago, this column called a goalless draw between Deportivo La Coruna and Real Madrid at [23.0]. Will there be another one this weekend?

Possibly. Remember that Racing Santander are not quite so used to all-out defence as Depor, but, if their coach, Marcelino, deploys a man-marker to hassle Xabi Alonso like Juan Rodriguez did last Saturday, Real might struggle to improve a record that shows two goals scored in their last four away games.

Racing are on a nine-match unbeaten at El Sardinero, despite not keeping a clean sheet there this year. Laying Real, who are [1.43] favourites to win, is an option, but some people taking on a team containing Cristiano Ronaldo (if he is fit) and Mesut Ozil will want a greater reward for their bravery.

The market is wising up and you will be lucky to find [20.0] about 0-0 in the Correct Score market on Sunday, so the draw ([5.0]) might be a better bet this week.

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla
Recommended Bet: Back Levante at [2.52] to beat Espanyol

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