BNP Paribas Open Men's Betting: Out of form Querrey worth taking on in Indian Wells

"Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately."

Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5

The tennis action in the Californian desert begins in earnest on Thursday, with the start of the men's first round at the BNP Paribas Open and Sean Calvert selects the best bets...

There are 16 first round matches scheduled for today at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, with play beginning at 7pm UK time.

Conditions here always play on the slow side for a hard court due to the gritty, Plexipave surface that fluffs up the balls and leads to the kind of high bounce that Rafa Nadal loves to encounter.

There's no Rafa today, but there are several opportunities for punters on Thursday, starting with a chance to take on the out of form Sam Querrey.

Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately.

He also dropped a set to world number 647 Tigre Hank in Acapulco in his only win since Melbourne and he faces Alex Kuznetsov at around 5am UK time tomorrow, who defeated Querrey in their most recent meeting on a hard court in Dallas a couple of years ago.

Kuznetsov is coming off the back of a good run in Memphis on indoor hard where he beat David Goffin and Mikhail Kukushkin and the +3.5 games on the handicap or lay of Querrey 2-0 look the options here.

At the more palatable time of around 9pm in the UK there's another clash of two American's between Michael Russell and Donald Young and I like the idea of backing the veteran vest-wearer in this one.

Russell has a pretty good record of 7-4 here at Indian Wells and the lack of pace in the courts should suit the more consistent player and Young's flashy style may not the best in these conditions.

The older American has won four of the last five and seven of their 11 match-ups and after a good run in Memphis, where he beat Lleyton Hewitt, Russell has endured tough three set losses to Radek Stepanek and John Isner and this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Finally I like the idea of taking a chance on Dusan Lajovic at a tempting 2.56/4 against the often wildly errant Lukas Rosol when they meet for the first time at around 10.30pm UK time tonight.

The 23-year-old Serbian has broken into the top-100 recently and is on the upgrade, which he proved again in qualifying here with two wins achieved without dropping serve once and Rosol may also find it tough to break him.

Rosol is currently 68th on the list of return games won in 2014 - one ahead of John Isner - so he's unlikely to break often against a man in a good serving groove so the +2.5 games on Lajovic at 1.8 appeals here, as does the outright on the Serb.

As far as shorter-priced favourites are concerned today I like Santiago Giraldo and Lleyton Hewitt as the most reliable-looking two on Thursday.

Recommended Bets
Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5
Back Russell to beat Young at 1.9520/21
Back Lajovic +2.5 games to beat Rosol at 1.8

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WTA Indian Wells betting: Final

"Sharapova really looks like a player on a mission, and I love the way she is hitting the ball and right now I don't think anyone could, or would want to, stand in her way, and I think a straight sets victory is the most likely outcome tonight"

It is time for the Final at Indian Wells and the guys at Abelson take a closer look.

Second seed Maria Sharapova overcame 13th seed and compatriot Maria Kirilenko 6-4 6-3 to advance to her first final of the year. In just over 1hr and 20 minutes she produced a masterclass of serving saving all six break points and posting and remarkable 83% win percentage on first serve points. At one point during the second set she held to love on three consecutive occasions without having to rely on a second serve, leading the commentator to exclaim, "seriously...when was the last time that has happened" For all her fight and determination, Kirilenko had no answer to the powerhouse that is Sharapova, but she can still walk away with her head held high. Sharapova's coach Tomas Hogsted has made remark on her drive and motivation this week, saying that there are no doubts about her focus and determination to get back to winning ways. Three from Nine in finals last year including 0 for 2 in finals at Indian Wells and Miami (next week's Masters event), Sharapova is clearly chomping at the bit to justify her coaches belief in her. If she performs like she did yesterday, she will have no problem fulfilling that desire.

In the other semi-final, Wozniacki dug deep to pull out a come-from-behind victory over Angelique Kerber. Trailing 6-2 2-0, and with Kerber knocking in winner after winner, there appeared to be no hope for the Dane. But an encouraging word from father Piotr gave her the motivation she needed, and after taking the second set 6-4, Kerber started to unravel at the seams. What was a winner in the first set became an error into the net in the final set, as she capitulated. In the blink of an eye Wozniacki was up 4-1 in the final set and, not before a little stutter where Kerber got it back to 4-3, she finally closed it out 7-5. Her exclamation on match point was poignant, as we saw the joy, relief, and satisfaction of a player who has recently had doubts about her own game, doubts about the coaching she was receiving, and as I have said before, constant pressure and media intrusion into her private life with golfer Rory McIlory. In this match we saw signs of the old Wozniacki, the player who in became World No.1 in 2010 and held that ranking for 67 weeks.

With a 6-2 head-to-head record, Sharapova comes into this final with a superior statistical advantage. Wozniacki however will not be deterred by this. Having made three finals in four years at Indian Wells, she clearly loves playing here. It was two years ago that she routed Sharapova 6-1 6-2 in the semi-finals en route to the title that year, but Sharapova will be buoyed by the fact that she has won their last two meetings, on the clay courts at Rome in 2011, and at Miami a year ago. What is interesting is that while Sharapova clearly loves it fast, she has proven she can defeat Wozniacki on slower surfaces. With the exception of a few double faults (which Sharapova is never going to be able to fix), her service stats have been near-perfect. The same cannot be said for Wozniacki, who was broken seven times by Kerber and only posted a 56% win rate on first serve points. Tonight Wozniacki will be the more consistent player in the rally, that is without question. Her ability to never miss the line is uncanny at times. With a mixture of moonballs and dropshots she successfully upset Kerber's rhythm in the semi-final, but Sharapova won't fall for the same trap.

I can not go against the way Sharapova is playing right now. With the same premise that I put forth in my semi-final preview, I maintain that Sharapova's serving ability will see her through tonight. Wozniacki's elegant and varied counter-punching style works against the majority of WTA player because they make too many mistakes, but I don't think this will be the case today. She has beaten Sharapova in the past, but Sharapova really looks like a player on a mission, and I love the way she is hitting the ball and right now I don't think anyone could, or would want to, stand in her way, and I think a straight sets victory is the most likely outcome tonight.

Recommended Bet:
Maria Sharapova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 1.251/4

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ATP Indian Wells Betting: Federer and Nadal set for another tough battle in the desert

"I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games.."

Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

Sean Calvert has seen a fair few Roger Federer versus Rafa Nadal matches over the years and he'll be up late again tonight for the latest instalment. He fancies this one to go long...

A fairly awful choke from Milos Raonic against an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga cost me my bet on Wednesday at the BNP Paribas Open. 

Not for the first time this week one of the men let a good lead slip away and it looked all over a Raonic win when Tsonga went a set down and had treatment on his knee, but Raonic handed the Frenchman a lifeline with an awful service game in set two and then gave him the match in a similar style in set three, ending on a double fault. 

That will be a painful loss for the Canadian, who normally possesses a more reliable temperament and Tsonga goes through to face Novak Djokovic, who had a 2am finish local time against Sam Querrey last night.

That match is for tomorrow though and today it's my outright tip Tomas Berdych taking on Kevin Anderson and if you're staying up late counting your Cheltenham winnings (or losses) then it's Rafa Nadal versus Roger Federer at 2am UK time.

Part 29 of this match-up is probably one of the toughest to predict, with both players not at their best physically. 

Rafa still has issues with his knees and it's in the lap of the gods how well he is able to move on any given day. He was hampered last night against Ernests Gulbis, but was still able to edge that one and similarly Federer struggled again with his back and crept past Stan Wawrinka.

Obviously the match-up favours Nadal, who has won 18 of their matches lifetime to Fed's 10 and we can expect the same tactics again tonight, as Rafa will try and get the ball up high to Roger's backhand and control the point from there.

That said, Federer won here 12 months ago on a very windy day and Nadal has only played two competitive matches on a hard court since that day, so all things considered it's far from easy to pick a winner in this one.

If I were going on the outright match odds market I would favour the underdog purely on the match-up at around 2.166/5, but I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games at 1.865/6.

Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

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WTA Indian Wells Betting: Kerber and Stosur likely to go the distance...

'Stosur has spent more time on court this week, played more sets, and, whilst still winning, has had to come from behind a number of times. Given the head-to-head record Stosur usually would be favourite, but I think Kerber will take her the distance tonight'

It's the last two Women's Quarter finals tonight; Kerber versus Stosur in what should be a tight affair and that's followed by two former champions facing off as Azarenka takes on Wozniacki.

First up we have German Angelique Kerber against Australian Sam Stosur. Kerber came into this tournament on the back of two first round losses in a row. This minor drop in form can however be put down to a back strain which came to light at the Australian Open when she was put to the sword by Ekatarina Makarova. To anybody who saw that match it was clear she was not fit but she appears to have got over this now, her three victories at Indian Wells so far show she's back to the level we all expect of her.

Stosur and Kerber have met twice before with Stosur winning each time. To Kerber's credit both matches have been competitive, and I see no reason why it won't be the same tonight. Kerber is an exciting player who is not afraid to go for her shots; she has a wicked forehand and is able to chase down a lot of balls. 

Stosur has spent more time on court this week, played more sets, and, whilst still winning, has had to come from behind a number of times. Given the head-to-head record Stosur usually would be favourite, but I think Kerber will take her the distance tonight. It's certainly worth a look at the Total Games Market for this one in what should be a highly entertaining match.

In the last Quarter Final match we see two players that have tasted success at Indian Wells before. It was exactly two years ago that Victoria Azarenka slumped to her fifth defeat in seven meetings with Caroline Wozniacki as the then world number one went on to take the Indian Wells title that year. 

How the tables have turned since then! Now, Azarenka has two Grand Slam titles under her belt and is arguably the most consistent player on the Tour. She boasts a perfect 17 match winning record this year and very much justifies her pre-match price of 1.261/4. 

Wozniacki on the other hand, troubled by a difficult relationship with her on-off coach and father Piotr, and burdened with the task of keeping a lid on media intrusion has seen her ranking slump outside the Top 10 for the first time in five years.

All that being said, it is Wozniacki who I like tonight. She made short work of Petrova in the previous round and in-form Russian Vesnina in the round before. Noted for her defence, Wozniacki has always possessed an uncanny ability to minimise mistakes. She hardly every serves a double-fault (something Azarenka cannot boast) and seldom hits the net. Moreover with Azarenka hampered by a troublesome ankle injury, this is a perfect opportunity for Wozniacki to re-start her 2013 campaign and redeem herself after an embarrassing loss to little known Qiang Wang two weeks ago.

Wozniacki was the darling of the WTA Tour and was world Number One long before Azarenka had even thought about winning a Grand Slam. She possesses too much ability for this to be an easy match for Azarenka and I think the +5.5 Games for Wozniacki tonight is the way to go.

Recommend Bets:
Back Caroline Wozniacki +5.5 Games vs Victoria Azarenka @ 1.768/11
Back Over 21.5 Games in Angelique Kerber vs Sam Stosur @ 1.814/5

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ATP Indian Wells Betting: Matosevic value against Querrey and Murray may have to work again

"Matosevic is striking the ball well and Querrey doesn’t have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue.."

Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

Sean Calvert was back to winning ways at Indian Wells yesterday and he's identified another tempting wager at the BNP Paribas Open this evening...

Kevin Anderson more than justified my faith in him yesterday with a thoroughly convincing straight sets win over Jarkko Nieminen to make my straight sets wager a winner at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

The big South African was in rare form again and after his win over David Ferrer the previous round and the Finn had no answers in a 6-3, 6-1 stroll in which Anderson lost just one point on his first serve.

Elsewhere, Jerzy Janowicz produced the kind of performance against Richard Gasquet that I was expecting when he faced David Nalbandian in the previous round. The Pole managed just 41% of first serves in play, which was never likely to get the job done against the Gasman.

It was easy for Roger Federer and even easier for Rafa Nadal, whose opponent withdrew and probably the highlight of the day was a typically barmy performance from Ernests Gulbis, who showed his full repertoire in a tight three set win over Andreas Seppi. 

Andy Murray is in action tonight against the man who memorably stunned him at the 2008 Olympics Yen Hsun Lu, but that match won't be on until 2am. For those staying up late marking their cards for Cheltenham I would be inclined to side with Lu with a 5.5 game start at around 1.9520/21. 

Murray recovered from a slow start against Evgeny Donskoy, but he's not the same player in Masters compared to Slams and I doubt that he'll take Lu apart tonight. 

Also in action today are Novak Djokovic who should have few problems getting past Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who should take care of a very rusty Mardy Fish. Juan Martin Del Potro also looks to have a pretty routine task against diminutive German Bjorn Phau.

But Marin Cilic versus Milos Raonic should be competitive and probably quite long, with the overs looking good there and I like Nico Almagro to edge it against Tommy Haas, but perhaps better value comes in the match between Marinko Matosevic and Sam Querrey.

Big Sam has had a pretty average year so far and is perhaps best known for a shocking choke against Gulbis in Delray Beach so far in 2013 and he has been beaten by Matosevic already this season. 

The Aussie has eased into the third round stage by beating Tommy Robredo and Juan Monaco in straight sets, which shows that he's striking the ball well and Querrey doesn't have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue. 

The 3.259/4 about a Matosevic win is worthy of consideration, but the 3.5 game handicap start at 1.834/5 looks a good bet in this one, as surely at least one and probably all sets of this one will be close. 

Recommended Bet
Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

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WTA Indian Wells Betting: Tough Test for stuttering Kvitova

"There's no reason why Tsurenko can't be the player that Kvitova has become in the next couple of years."

Back Lesya Tsurenko +5.5 Games vs Petra Kvitova

Even with the absence of the Williams sisters there is still plenty of quality tennis to be seen as eight of the current top ten in the women's game remain in the draw. Of those eight, Petra Kvitova could be in the most amount of trouble tonight...

While Petra Kvitova is undoubtedly an exceptional talent, there are reasons to oppose her tonight.

Firstly she didn't appear to be firing on all cylinders in her last match, serving ten double-faults and letting her head drop in the second Set. Secondly she has in the past openly confessed to not enjoying playing in North America because the humidity affects her asthma, and finally she is facing a young girl, Lesya Tsurenko, who is showing plenty of belief and self-confidence.

Tsurenko has reached her highest ever ranking of 74, the young Ukranian has had an impressive start to the year with notable wins over Hantuchova, Pavlyuchenkova, and Shvedova. She hits the ball with power and she's aggressive from the backcourt. She's clearly moving in the right direction and tonight is another opportunity for her to shine. There's no reason why Tsurenko can't be the player that Kvitova has become in the next couple of years.

Another youngster to keep an eye on is American Mallory Burdette. Like Tsurenko she also came through qualifying for this tournament, and her recent form suggests she has a lot going for her. Her service stats are impeccable, with very few double faults, and few break point opportunities offered. 

One tennis rule of thumb that is generally accepted is not to oppose Americans in America; there's something about the US crowd, they really know how to get behind their players. Kirilenko will be a very tough test, but with the home support, Burdette's rising star, and Kirilenko's poor record at this tournament (she's only gone past the third Round twice), Burdette can do enough here to win the match or at least cover the Handicap of +4.5.

The Cirstea v Radwanska match will be a big hitting aggressor versus an elegant, tricky counter-puncher. In their last two meetings the total has gone over both times. Cirstea's powerful serve will win her cheap points, and with her glorious forehand that she frequently unleashes with devastating effect, she can keep Radwanska pegged back on the baseline.

Last year was a stellar one for Radwanska as she made her first ever Grand Slam final. Cirstea on the other hand has not done anything of note since she made the quarter-finals of the French back in 2009. Nevertheless she is a solid performer, and while her ranking has slid since then she looks to be getting her form back.

Having played each other many times these two know each other's games very well. It will be an amicable affair and most likely closer than the odds suggest. +6.5 Games for Cirstea and Over 17.5 is the play here for me.

Recommended Bets
Lesya Tsurenko +5.5 Games vs Petra Kvitova
Mallory Burdette +4.5 Games vs Maria Kirilenko
Sorana Cirstea +6.5 Games vs Agnieszka Radwanska
Over 17.5 Games - Sorana Cirstea vs Agnieszka Radwanska

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ATP Indian Wells Betting: Ramos to make things tricky for Cilic while Murray may struggle against Donskoy

"The highest ranked player that Cilic has ever beaten at Indian Wells is Florent Serra, who was ranked number 73 when Cilic beat him here in 2011 and Ramos should have enough about his game to give the Croat a hard time again tonight.."

Back Ramos +3.5 games to beat Cilic at 2.01/1

Any Murray supporters beware! It's been an unpredictable start to proceedings at Indian Wells, so can Sean Calvert find some winners in today's second round matches?

The 2013 BNP Paribas Open continued to confound on Saturday, with no less than seven seeded casualties in the men's draw and another tough loss for my recommended bet.

David Nalbandian lost a tight one to Jerzy Janowicz and resorted to his time-honoured tradition of booting the advertising hoardings. Thankfully there wasn't a line judge sitting behind them this time, but the well-backed Nalbandian's supporters could empathise with the Argentine.

But there was a bright spot amongst the carnage, as David Ferrer's defeat to Kevin Anderson has opened the draw up nicely for my two outright recommended bets Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon.

The latter came back from 5-1 and match points down to defeat Paulo Lorenzi yesterday, while Berdych's chances of making at least the semi-finals look good with Ferrer's loss.

So, there's plenty to play for and Andy Murray begins his Indian Wells campaign tonight against improving Russian Evgeny Donskoy, but it would be a huge surprise if he were able to push the Scot close.

That said, Murray has lost in the first round here for the last two years in a row and it's certainly not his favourite venue. His Masters 1000 form hasn't been great lately and you have to go back to Shanghai 2011 for his last Masters title.

It could be worth an interest to side with Donskoy +6.5 games on the handicap in this one, as Murray hasn't played since the Australian Open and might be rusty enough to allow the Russian enough games to cover that quite generous allowance.

But one I prefer on the handicap is for Albert Ramos to cause Marin Cilic enough problems to beat the Croatian with a 3.5 game start at around 2.01/1.

The left-handed Spaniard defeated Cilic in their only hard court meeting in Shanghai at the end of 2011 and last year he took down Richard Gasquet in this tournament, so the conditions here suit Ramos.

They don't really suit Cilic though, as his record here is poor, with just three wins at this venue in total in his career. The highest ranked player that Cilic has ever beaten at Indian Wells is Florent Serra, who was ranked number 73 when Cilic beat him here in 2011 and Ramos should have enough about his game to give the Croat a hard time again tonight.

Recommended Bet
Back Ramos +3.5 games to beat Cilic at 2.01/1

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WTA Indian Wells Betting: First Round Tips

'If you are looking for a classic match-up then go no further than the all Italian clash between Pennetta and Schiavone'

The start of the '5th Major' and Abelson Info serve up the choice cuts from the Women's first round...

It's a star-studded field that welcomes tennis fans to Indian Wells for the BNP Paribas Open. The first round action is full of easy pickings for some of the big names but there's plenty of opportunity for a big run from others looking to improve their ranking.

British hope Heather Watson has a pretty tough opening encounter against Romanian Irina Camelia Begu. There are only fourteen spots between them in the rankings but you have to give a big edge to Watson - 1.538/15 isn't the biggest price but it is a winning one. Begu has some weapons but they just aren't firing at the moment.

The same can't be said of Bethanie Mattek Sands. She was in super form last week as she got beaten in a tight final in Malaysia. That run will work against her and you are strongly advised to side with her fellow American Jamie Hampton in an easy 2-0 sets romp.

If you are looking for a classic match-up then go no further than the all Italian clash between Pennetta and Schiavone. It is fair to say neither of these two are anywhere near the heights of the last few years. It is a question as to who has fallen further from grace. Pennetta is a better player on hard courts so you should see a slight upturn from her recent form but it won't be enough to get past a still incredibly resilient Schiavone. This could be a long one and the value has to be on Over 22.5 Games at 2.26/5 in the Total Games market.

We can't let these first round encounters go without a mention for the young star Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino. She's showed big promise but will be the outsider to beat Sesil Karatantcheva. With a good steady game the young Spaniard can take this in straight sets at attractive odds of 3.3512/5.

Don't forget that in first round matches in big events like this there are a lot of mid to low ranked players facing each other. One thing these players lack is confidence as they do not win a lot of matches. You can take advantage of this with some smart in-play betting. If the outsider at the start of the match takes the first set then you won't go far wrong with backing the loser of that first set at that stage.

Recommended Bets:
Back Over 22.5 Games in the Pennetta v Schiavone match at 2.26/5
Back Hampton to beat Mattek Sands 2-0 Sets at 1.9210/11

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Indian Wells Tips: Nadal to extend winning record against Fed

Events / Sean Calvert / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The outdoor courts favour Nad

"I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer’s more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now."

It's men's semi-final day at the BNP Paribas Open with the headline act being another instalment of Nadal v Federer and Sean Calvert is backing the Spaniard to extend his good record against the Swiss master

It was a tale of two Argentines on Friday at the BNP Paribas Open.

My recommended bet resulted in a disappointing loss for Juan Martin Del Potro, but those who were on my advice of backing David Nalbandian to take the opening set against Rafa Nadal were rewarded with a [4.6] winner.

Saturday is men's semi-final day at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden and first up at around 6pm UK time is Novak Djokovic v John Isner with the world number one priced up at around [1.13] to advance to the final.

This will be the third meeting between the pair, with Djokovic holding a 2-0 lead so far in their series, but they haven't played each other since 2010.

Djokovic looks like he's just coming into form at the right time in this event after a sluggish start, while Isner should have no shortage of confidence after making his second successive Masters 1000 semi.

He also comes into this match with additional self belief after recording his first win over a top four player when he defeated Roger Federer in the Davis Cup recently, so he'll have the right mindset when he steps on court tonight.

I can't see it being quite enough against Djokovic, but the big man should be able to take the match over the 20.5 total games mark if he serves well, which he'll have to against arguably the best returner in men's tennis at the moment.

Nole should have too much variety and a little extra class in this one, but my bet would be the overs at around [1.8].

The second semi final will be part 28 of the Federer v Nadal series, with Rafa holding an 18-9 advantage in competitive matches against the Swiss maestro.

This will be their first ever meeting at Indian Wells and Rafa is priced up at around [1.75] for the win, which is pretty reasonable considering that he's won four of their last five competitive matches and hasn't lost to Federer on an outdoor hard court since Miami in 2005.

Indeed, Rafa leads their series on outdoor hard courts by 5-1 in competitive matches and 7-1 overall, so on the face of it the Spaniard looks a pretty good bet at the current price.

An interesting wager in this match could be the 'second set winner' market, as Rafa has won the second set in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions. If you can get around [1.8] that could be worth an investment.

I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer's more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now.

Del Potro was hugely disappointing yesterday against Fed and admitted to mentally checking out after a bad call cost him the chance to break in the first game of the match, which is a shocking admission from a top-10 player.

Nadal on the other hand had to dig deep against Nalbandian and was a couple of points away from losing, which should have sharpened him up and I expect his usual tactic of wearing Federer's backhand down until it breaks will be victorious again tonight eventually.

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal to beat Federer at [1.75]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Sean Calvert continues a week of tipping with a look at this intriguing quarter-final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer......

Big-serving John Isner and Sean's nemesis Gilles Simon go head-to-head tonight and though Isner looks the more likely winner, the better bet is that it will be a pretty long match os it's time to turn to the total games...

Sean Calvert found some winners yesterday and on a day where the favourites should mostly prevail, the best bet is the in-form Ryan Harrison. He's up against a player in Gilles Simon with a suspect record here at Indian Wells...

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Indian Wells Tips: Simon and Isner in for a long one

Events / Sean Calvert / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Isner will need that towel if as expected, his match goes the distance

"Simon will be tired after that late one with Harrison last night and Isner should prevail but the Frenchman will make it tough and a three setter is expected."

Big-serving John Isner and Sean's nemesis Gilles Simon go head-to-head tonight and though Isner looks the more likely winner, the better bet is that it will be a pretty long match os it's time to turn to the total games market.

Wednesday at the BNP Paribas Open proved to be an ultimately disappointing one when, after making a great comeback, Ryan Harrison was beaten by Gilles Simon.

The Frenchman is proving to be an unlikely nemesis in this tournament and he next faces John Isner.

Thursday at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden sees a reduction in the number of matches with only Isner/Simon and Novak Djokovic v Nico Almagro to choose from on the men's side.

Djokovic was made to struggle by Spaniard Pablo Andujar yesterday, after winning the opening set 6-0, and he'll need to improve on his patchy (by his standards) performances this week against Almagro, but I expect him to do just that.

Almagro is more likely to put in the necessary effort in a best of three than he was when he faced the world number one in Melbourne a year ago, the result being a simple straight sets win finished off by a final set bagel for Nole.

The handicap mark of plus 5.5 games is tempting at around [1.9] and that would probably be my bet in that one. But do you trust Almagro not to throw in the towel if he's taking a beating? I'm not sure that I do.

A better bet looks to be the overs in Simon v Isner with over 23.5 games looking highly likely at a price of around [1.96].

I watched the match between these two at the US Open last year and tipped Isner to win it in this column, which he ultimately did after four tough sets, but there wasn't a great deal in it that day.

Isner hasn't been involved in a tie break so far this tournament, which is a surprise but there's a good chance that this pair will create at least one today and that might be worth an interest as well.

Simon will be tired after that late one with Harrison last night and Isner should prevail but the Frenchman will make it tough and a three setter is expected.

On the women's side I like the chances of Marion Bartoli at around [1.9] to inflict a second Indian Wells defeat in two years upon Ana Ivanovic, who probably won't push on after defeating Caroline Wozniacki in the previous round.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 23.5 games in Isner v Simon at around [1.96]

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Sean Calvert found some winners yesterday and on a day where the favourites should mostly prevail, the best bet is the in-form Ryan Harrison. He's up against a player in Gilles Simon with a suspect record here at Indian Wells...

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Indian Wells Betting: Azarenka to keep the winning streak going

Events / Guy McCrea / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Victoria Azarenka has become mentally and physically stronger and is starting to manage her workload better

"Throughout her Australian Open title run, Azarenka exhibited emotional stability she had never shown before at the Slams – even when she got understandably nervous during her semi-final win over defending champion Kim Clijsters."

She's the Australian Open champion, the new World Number One and is on an unbeaten run spanning 17 matches. But what is it that's all of a sudden clicked in Victoria Azarenka's game that's made her the one to beat, asks Guy McCrea.

Seventeen straight match wins. Three titles, including a first Grand Slam crown at the Australian Open. World number one for the first time. It's definitely been the stuff of dreams so far in 2012 for Victoria Azarenka, currently priced around 2.98 favourite on Betfair to win the BNP Paribas Open.

Assessing Azarenka's rise, I like to think back to almost a year ago in Miami. There, Azarenka ripped through a slew of top names to lift her second Sony Ericsson Open title. Entry to the top 5 for the first time and then a maiden Grand Slam semi-final appearance at Wimbledon soon followed. Azarenka later ended her 2011 season with a runner-up finish at the year-end WTA Championships.

My point is that these first couple of months of 2012 - particularly her maiden major title in Melbourne - are simply the culmination of what was likely for some time. And thanks largely to that Grand Slam success, Azarenka already holds a greater acceptance of her status from most general tennis followers than Caroline Wozniacki ever did during her 67 week stay at the WTA summit.

For me, the key factor behind Azarenka's rise is that she is just so much more mentally strong than in the past, when she would often implode and lose matches that should have been won. Throughout her Australian Open title run, Azarenka exhibited emotional stability she had never shown before at the Slams - even when she got understandably nervous during her semi-final win over defending champion Kim Clijsters.

There have also been a couple of key changes in Azarenka's game. She has markedly improved her movement around the court and also hits her groundstrokes with much greater margin now than earlier in her career. Azarenka does still have weapons - her first serve and backhand can be extremely potent - but these changes have allowed her to fully prosper, particularly on the slow hardcourt surfaces which dominate modern professional tennis.

Add to this Azarenka's improved fitness record and you understand why she's reached the top. The Belarusian is clearly stronger and there is also evidence that she and her team are looking to better manage the demands of her playing schedule. Remember, this is a player who retired hurt from almost a third of the tournaments she played during the 2010 season.

Azarenka's withdrawal from Dubai two weeks ago is a good example. Fresh off winning the title in Doha, where she picked up an ankle knock - Azarenka decided she wasn't fit enough to go straight into playing another event the following week. In the past Azarenka's record suggests she may well have played, would have then struggled through a match or two before pulling out, having aggravated the problem.

Now fully fit again and still full of confidence, Azarenka is out to continue her winning streak at Indian Wells, one of the sport's most prestigious events. It is tough to bet against Azarenka on current form. After an opening round bye, she is unlikely to have too much trouble with Mona Barthel in their second round clash. The German is also a young woman on the rise, but she isn't good enough yet to entertain the upset. It has to be Azarenka [1.32] in straight sets.

Beyond that, it is true the world number one is still to show that she can consistently beat her good friend Caroline Wozniacki [11.5] and Petra Kvitova [5.4]. Both have had Azarenka's number in the past - not least Kvitova who beat the Belarusian three times in 2011, including at the WTA Championships final.

But far from being fearful of the prospect, I think Azarenka would fancy the challenge of playing one, or both of them should they meet in the latter stages in California. Kvitova hasn't played since reaching the Australian Open semi-finals and also hasn't proven yet that she can play her best tennis on American hardcourts. There is huge pressure too on Wozniacki, who is defending champion in Indian Wells. The Dane could crash out of the WTA top 5 for the first time since September 2009 if she can't produce another deep run in the desert.

Outside of those two, it is tough to see who else can really challenge Azarenka - especially in the absence of both Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams. Along with her sister Venus, the American has boycotted Indian Wells every year since a controversial incident back in 2001.

Maria Sharapova [7.0] is in decent form, but Azarenka thrashed the Russian in the Australian Open final and thrives in their match-up. There is also Agnieszka Radwanska [13.0] who Azarenka could meet in the quarter finals. The Pole has enjoyed an excellent past six months on the WTA, most recently winning in Dubai to crack the WTA top 5 for the first time. But tellingly, all her three losses so far in 2012 have come at the hands of Azarenka.

Who knows how long she can keep her streak going? But for the moment at least, everything points to a fourth straight WTA title of 2012 for Azarenka next weekend.

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Indian Wells Betting: Igor to slay the giant

Events / Ben Caudell / 25 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

John Isner may feel the heat today at the hands of Igor Andreev

"The Russian owns a 1-0 head-to-head series lead over Isner, winning their only match in 2008 at the Cincinnati Masters event 3-6 7-6 7-5."

Ben Caudell looks ahead to tonight's clash between Igor Andreev and John Isner.

Igor Andreev (Rus) v John Isner (USA)

There's strong support amongst the tennis betting fraternity today for Igor Andreev to dispatch of John Isner in tonight's late night game. Currently onsite at [2.50] in the match odds, this price represents value, seeing as there is a strong possibility that these odds will shorten before the start of the match.

This support could be partly due to the extremely slow hard-courts in Miami that favour base-line players such as Andreev more so than the giant big servers like Ivo Karlovic (who lost to Florian Mayer last night) and John Isner, who both rely heavily on their powerful service games to win cheap points.

The fact that Crandon Park lies practically on the water's edge of a marina, unlike Indian Wells, means there is no desert air to speed things up. The environment here is heavy and humid, therefore the bounce of the ball is pretty low. That, allied with the windy conditions, can only hamper the 6'9" American's movement, ground strokes and serve.

Igor Andreev, who is starting to regain some much needed form after a disastrous South American clay court swing earlier in the year, defeated Kei Nishikori in three sets at Indian Wells and then went on to put in a dogged performance against Roger Federer.

The Russian owns a 1-0 head-to-head series lead over Isner, winning their only match in 2008 at the Cincinnati Masters event 3-6 7-6 7-5. He has stats of 5-5 against big servers and is 6-4 in Miami, with the Russian's best tournament performance taking place again in 2008, where Andreev reached the Quarter Final stage.

Isner has lost four of his last five matches in America and is yet to make it past the second round in three attempts at this Master Series event. His three loses have been against Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer and Gael Monfils, attacking base-liners in a similar mould to Andreev. The fact that the Russian has a powerful serve to compliment his ground strokes gives me more reason to take the value and back Igor to make it through to the third round.

Recommended Bet:

Back Igor Andreev @ [2.50] to win match

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Indian Wells Betting: Somdev to have some day

Events / Sean Calvert / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Somdev Devarmann is pretty much in the form of his life

"Devvarman and Malisse have met twice, with the Belgian losing both as favourite, so the [2.2] about Devvarman continuing that streak looks worth taking."

Sean Calvert identifiies the best bets from Monday's action including why it could pay to side with in-form Indian star Somdev Devvarman.

Stan Wawrinka rewarded us yesterday with a battling win over Nikolay Davydenko on day four at the BNP Paribas Masters, while Julien Benneteau just lost out in the decider against Jurgen Melzer after taking the lead.

It's day five at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden today and I'm going on the hunt for a bit of value with a couple of odds-against shots.

First up is the in-form Indian player, Somdev Devvarman, who is playing some great stuff at the moment with nine wins from his last 12 matches, including wins over Janko Tipsarevic and Marcos Baghdatis already in this tournament.

Indeed, Devvarman's only losses in that spell came at the hands of Roger Federer, Viktor Troicki, and in Johannesburg to event winner Kevin Anderson, so he's right at the top of his game and a third round clash with Xavier Malisse won't scare him.

Devvarman and Malisse have met twice, with the Belgian losing both as favourite, so the [2.2] about Devvarman continuing that streak looks worth taking.

The world number 87 won 85% of his first serve points against decent returner Baghdatis in round two and broke the Cypriot five times, so both the serve and return games are working well right now.

Malisse had a great win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in round two, but he's never won more than two matches in a row here in seven attempts and his body tends to let him down too often for my liking these days.

Back Devvarman to keep his fine run of form going against an opponent whose game clearly suits his.

Other odds-against shots that have a chance in today's third round matches are Alexandr Dolgopolov at [3.4] against Juan Martin Del Potro whilst I think Phillip Kohlschreiber will take a set off Robin Soderling.

There's something about the German's game that the Swede struggles with and even though Sod broke a four match losing streak against him the last time they met, he had to come from match point down to do it.

Kohlschreiber will fancy his chances again and it's worth laying the
2-0 Sod win at around [1.75].

Recommended bets:

Back Devvarman at [2.2] to beat Malisse
Lay Soderling to win 2-0 over Kohlschreiber at [1.75]

Saturday saw upsets galore at Indian Wells where Andy Murray went down when heavy odds-on against Donald young. Sean Calvert think it'll be a little more predictable today and has a pair of men to follow...

Sean Calvert has found three sure things and recommends you back them in an acca...

Sean Calvert picks the best bet from today's action at Indian Wells....

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Indian Wells Betting: Back an in-form trio

Events / Sean Calvert / 12 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ferrer should despatch big serving Ivo Karlovic

"Ferrer takes on Ivo Karlovic and has a 2-0 head-to-head record over the Croatian, who broke the world’s fastest serve record last week in Davis Cup. But Ivo still didn’t win either of his Davis Cup games and hasn’t beaten anyone of note since his comeback from a long term foot injury."

Sean Calvert has found three sure things and recommends you back them in an acca

Yesterday's defeat for Japan's Kei Nishikori was hardly surprising given the news that shocked the world a matter of hours after I made the Day Two picks.

Day Three at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden sees some of the big guns begin their singles campaigns, with Andy Murray among them.

The Scot tries to get his year back on track against Donald Young and he couldn't have hoped for a much easier draw.

Once quoted by a certain high street bookmaker as low as [2.5] to win Wimbledon in his career after an incredible amount of hype as a teen star, Young is yet to break the top-75 and is currently at 143.

Murray should win this at a canter, but at [1.04] and in a slump with a dodgy wrist, I won't be touching that one.

Instead, I fancy a treble today that pays around [2.26] which involves David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro and Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Ferrer takes on Ivo Karlovic and has a 2-0 head-to-head record over the Croatian, who broke the world's fastest serve record last week in Davis Cup. But Ivo still didn't win either of his Davis Cup games and hasn't beaten anyone of note since his comeback from a long term foot injury.

Karlovic couldn't take a set off Ferrer when he was at his best, so I can't see him winning today against the Spaniard, who has a 14-2 record this season, with two titles and is back up to number six in the world.

The Croatian also has a poor 4-7 record at Indian Wells and Ferrer is a confident selection.

Ferrer's doubles partner this week, Almagro, is in rare form at the moment, also with two titles and an 18-3 record in 2011 and he should have far too many weapons for journeyman Michael Russell.

The 32-year-old American has beaten Almagro before and had a good win over Kevin Anderson in the first round here, but the Spaniard is at the peak of his powers and should be too classy for him this time with confidence at a high.

Finally, Dolgopolov is also in fine form, boasting a 13-6 record in
2011 and is at a career high of 23 in the world following a quarter final effort in Melbourne and an excellent Golden Swing on the clay in South America.

His opponent, Victor Hanescu is on his way down the rankings after a couple of years in and around the top-30 or so and hasn't been past the third round of any tournament since New Haven last autumn.

The 29-year-old Romanian has only played five outdoor hard-court matches since the US Open last year and is much happier on clay, with a 19-32 record on hard over the last four years.

Hanescu has a 3-7 record in 2011 and hasn't won a completed match against a top-50 player since beating Michael Berrer on clay last April. And the last time he beat a top-50 player on a hard-court was over Jurgen Melzer in Canada in 2009.

Recommended Betfair Multiple Bet:
Ferrer to beat Karlovic [1.26]
Almagro to beat Russell [1.32]
Dolgopolov to beat Hanescu [1.3]

Sean Calvert has found three sure things and recommends you back them in an acca...

Sean Calvert picks the best bet from today's action at Indian Wells....

It may not be the most high-profile match from today's action but this one provides one of the best betting opportunities......

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Indian Wells Betting: Novak to knock'em dead

Events / Sean Calvert / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Novak Djokovic has shown a greater intensity in his game in 2011

"You've got to feel that the Serbian will get that number two ranking sooner rather than later, particularly with his recent dominance over the Swiss and the fact that Federer hasn’t done well here since the last of his three straight titles in 2006."

Novak Djokovic has started 2011 in fantastic style and there's nothing to suggest Indian Wells will be any different, despite the presence of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the field, says Sean Calvert.

After a few weeks off, the ATP Tour is back in full swing this week with the first Masters 1000 event of the year, the BNP Paribas Open from Indian Wells, California.

Defending champion here is Ivan Ljubicic, who sprung a [600.0] shock last year, but who with 1000 ranking points to defend, will slip out of the world's top-40 with an opening round defeat this week.

The favourite - and rightly so based on recent form - is Novak Djokovic, who has been in irresistible touch in 2011, with 12 wins and no losses so far.

The sub-plot at Indian Wells is that Nole can overtake Roger Federer as world number two in the following scenarios:

If Djokovic wins the title or reaches the final and Federer doesn't.

Or if Djokovic reaches the last four and Federer fails to make the last eight.

You've got to feel that the Serbian will get that number two ranking sooner rather than later, particularly with his recent dominance over the Swiss and the fact that Federer hasn't done well here since the last of his three straight titles in 2006.

The pair have been drawn in the same half and Nole looks to have the more straightforward route to the semis, as he's been drawn with big servers, Andy Roddick, John Isner and Michael Llodra, plus the likes of Richard Gasquet, Viktor Troicki, Jurgen Melzer and Ernests Gulbis.

I don't see any of those beating Djokovic at the moment and it would be a big shock if he didn't make it through that section to the last four.

The interesting one in that part of the draw is wild card Bernard Tomic, who might cause a few problems if he can transfer his Melbourne form to California.

Federer has had problems with lower ranked players here lately, with losses to the likes of Mardy Fish and Marcos Baghdatis blotting his Indian Wells copybook.

Kei Nishikori will be Fed's opener and Fish is in his section again, but this event for me is all about how Milos Raonic does and it would be fascinating to see him play Federer. The Canadian has Fish first up, which the American won't be looking forward to after losing to him in Memphis.

The surface here will be slower than the one in Memphis, but I still fancy Raonic to do well here with his confidence sky high.

Others of note in Federer's quarter are Stan Wawrinka, Nikolay Davydenko, Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic, so it's far from certain that Fed will make the last four.

In the top half, Nadal always does well here and hasn't failed to reach the last four since way back in 2004 and if he's fit, he should get through a quarter that doesn't look overly threatening.

Rafa enjoyed a couple of bloodless wins in Davis Cup last week, which told us little about his form or fitness and the opposition this week will be tougher. It includes Marcos Baghdatis, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Nicolas Almagro, who are all in with half a shout of beating him.

Andy Murray is in the adjacent quarter and the number five seed has once again been drawn with Robin Soderling, plus Fernando Verdasco, Ljubicic and Juan Martin Del Potro.

That's not going to be easy for the Scot, who doesn't have an outstanding record here and he is readily overlooked in favour of the man that beat him here last year, Soderling.

The Swede has an 18-1 record in 2011 with three titles already and he should have reached the final here last year - falling to Roddick in the semis. Roddick needs wins in the next fortnight as well, with big points from here and Miami to defend.

It's great to see Del Potro edging back to his best and he will be another dark horse here along with Raonic. But is he ready to win a Masters Series event yet?

Del Potro has lost both times he's faced top-10 opposition this year and he hasn't enjoyed conditions here in the past, so the last eight would be a good result for the Argentine.

As for the outsiders, Raonic is a bit skinny at around [50.0], but whoever wins out of the Canadian and Fish has a shot - Fish has done well here before and has a puncher's chance at over [100.0], as does Stan Wawrinka at a similarly large price. But I don't think you can look much further than Djokovic for the title at around [4.5] in the
form he's in right now.

Recommended bet:

Back Djokovic at [4.5]
Next best: Soderling at [17.0]

Long shots:

Fish at [150.0]
Wawrinka at [100.0]
Raonic at [50.0]
Berdych at [55.0]

Novak Djokovic has started 2011 in fantastic style and there's nothing to suggest Indian Wells will be any different, despite the presence of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the field, says Sean Calvert....

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