Premier League Tips: Newcastle to struggle in London

"Alan Pardew managed to lift his players to earn a point at West Ham following the embarrassing 6-0 thrashing by Liverpool at St James’ Park, but they still only have a three point cushion over Wigan."

Back a QPR v Newcastle draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

It's the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season and Paul Robinson casts his eye over some crucial fixtures that affect both the top and bottom of the table. Here are his selections from Betfair's Sportsbook:

Norwich v West Brom  

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5) 
Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)  

Norwich and West Brom come into this match on the back of successive defeats and I can see the spoils being shared on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Hughton will have breathed a huge sigh of relief after Wigan threw away victory against Swansea on Wednesday. The Canaries still have a three point cushion to the relegation zone and as they have to travel to Man City on the final day, they won't want to have to go into that match needing a result.

Norwich are going to find it tough against West Brom though and I think their win price of a shade above evens is just too short to back. They've only won twice since the 15th of December and they've drawn five of their last eight at Carrow Road.

The Baggies put up a creditable performance at the Etihad on Tuesday but they lost 1-0 and that follows on from the disappointing home defeat to Wigan at the weekend. Prior to that, Steve Clarke's side had thrashed Southampton at St Mary's to end a four match winless run, and I think they should have enough about them to cause Norwich plenty of problems.

Romelu Lukaku is proving a handful against any opposition and he has scored 14 Premier League goals this term. Defensively, aside from the three they conceded at Upton Park, WBA have conceded no more than one in their last half dozen away from the Hawthorns so as well as backing the draw, I think backing a 1-1 correct score at 6.5 (11/2) would be a sensible bet.

Sunderland v Southampton  

Back Sunderland @ 2.7 (17/10)  
Back Sunderland to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)  

Sunderland have a suspension and injury crisis heading into their match with Southampton on Sunday but their match odds of 2.7 (17/10) simply can't be ignored against a Saints team who have picked up just two points from a possible 12.

Paulo Di Canio's side earned a much needed point at home to Stoke on Monday but it came at a cost as Craig Gardner was sent off and he now joins Stephane Sessegnon on the suspended list. The Black Cats are also missing the likes of Steven Fletcher and Wes Brown through injury so the Italian manager doesn't have many options to choose from.

Sunderland do have one thing in their favour though and that is their goal difference. As it is so superior to their relegation rivals, they know that victory at the weekend will almost certainly see them safe for another year. That should prove a huge motivation for the fans and players alike and The Stadium Of Light will be rocking.

Southampton had looked set for a mid-table finish but two draws followed by two defeats has left them on the edge of a relegation scrap. Mauricio Pochettino also has suspensions to worry about as both Danny Fox and Gaston Ramirez are out following red cards against West Brom. 

Rickie Lambert has 14 goals to his name this season but he hasn't scored in five and his goals are vital to The Saints' success. They've won just once on the road in their last eight and failed to score in three of the last four.

A home win is a great value bet at 2.7 (17/10) although I can see Southampton scoring a goal, so a 2-1 correct score at 9.5 (17/2) is my other selection.

QPR v Newcastle  

Back the draw @ 3.4 (12/5)  
Back a 1-1 correct score @ 6.5 (11/2)  

Newcastle are another team in the relegation mix and I can seem them only being able to get a point at rock bottom QPR. 

Harry Redknapp's side look set to finish bottom of the pile after picking up just two points from a possible 21. They haven't been thrashed in any of their recent matches but their lack of quality, especially in front of goal, has been there for all to see.

Rangers haven't scored in over 360 minutes of football and the likes of Loic Remy almost seem a touch disinterested now that their fate has been sealed. 

Newcastle have had an appalling campaign, domestically at least, and while there have been mitigating circumstances - European football and terrible luck with injuries - they simply haven't been good enough.

Alan Pardew managed to lift his players to earn a point at West Ham following the embarrassing 6-0 thrashing by Liverpool at St James' Park, but they still only have a three point cushion over Wigan. 

Victory at Loftus Road should see them safe but they haven't won away since January and the draw seems the value bet here at 3.4 (12/5). QPR may be struggling in front of goal but the Magpies have shipped an astonishing 66 goals this season so a 1-1 correct score looks good at odds of 6.5 (11/2).

Recommended Bets
Back a Norwich v West Brom draw @ 3.4 (12/5)  
Back a 1-1 correct score in Norwich v West Brom @ 6.5 (11/2)  
Back Sunderland @ 2.7 (17/10)  
Back Sunderland to win 2-1 @ 9.5 (17/2)  
Back a QPR v Newcastle draw @ 3.4 (12/5)  
Back a 1-1 correct score in QPR v Newcastle @ 6.5 (11/2)  

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Midweek League One Betting: Carlisle to struggle at table toppers Rovers

Blues boss Greg Abbott hailed Saturday's 2-0 win over Brentford as his 'best result since I have been at the club', and they worked extremely hard to keep the Bees quiet by closing them down. I am slightly wary of that result as it was their first win in seven games. Donny are solid at the moment, and are far more consistent.

Alan Dudman previews a full set of League One fixtures this Tuesday evening, with Doncaster and Yeovil the home bets to side with. Meanwhile Coventry's new boss Steven Pressley faces his first game at the Ricoh Arena.

Doncaster Rovers 1.875/6 v Carlisle United 4.707/2, the draw 3.7011/4

With the ever-changing position at the top of the table, one wonders how long Doncaster will stay at the summit? Saturday's 2-1 win at Bournemouth installed Rovers as the division leaders, but that position has been like a relay race this term and they are still available to back at 4.2016/5 in the League One winner market.

Donny have the best away record in the division but have lost only once at The Keepmoat in their last seven matches. During that run on home soil, they have conceded just five in their last six and look more efficient than stylish. They have some towering players and look for the diagonals.

Carlisle have ditched their passing style and diamond formation after the 3-0 defeat to Walsall two weeks ago, and have most certainly tightened up since that loss. All three of their most recent games have been under 2.5 goals, which is some turnaround for one of the worst defences in the division.

Blues boss Greg Abbott hailed Saturday's 2-0 win over Brentford as his 'best result since I have been at the club', and they worked extremely hard to keep the Bees quiet by closing them down. I am slightly wary of that victory as it was their first win in seven games. Donny are solid at the moment, and are far more consistent.

Recommended bet:
Back Doncaster to win @ 1.875/6

Yeovil Town 2.206/5 v Crawley Town 3.7011/4, the draw 3.505/2

Yeovil are four points from the league leaders Doncaster and yet are still available to back at odds-against at Huish Park this Tuesday. Not only are the Glovers keeping clean sheets (five from their last eight games), but they score too, and only Bournemouth and Swindon have netted more at home.

The Greens may have lost a bit of their cutting edge up front in their last couple of matches - drawing 0-0 on Saturday with Hartlepool, and last week's 1-0 win over Tranmere, but they are still one of the form teams in the division.

There are not many games in which Yeovil record a 'nil', and their pace and power has been the highlight of an exceptional run of form.

Crawley will pose a different sort of threat to Yeovil's recent opponents, as they like to pass the ball. However, they could be a mid-table team that could just fizzle out with nothing to play for. Six of their last eight matches have been under 2.5 goals, whilst two wins from nine games is hardly sparkling.

I would look to trade a low-scoring scoreline, whilst using the under 1.5 goals and 2.5 goals markets to get the stake for that bet. The safer play is to stick with a home win, as Yeovil should have enough quality to break down the visitors and according to Opta, have a league high 11 victories on their own patch.

Recommended bet:
Back Yeovil to win @ 2.206/5

Oldham Athletic 2.0621/20 v Hartlepool United 4.003/1, the draw 3.45n/a

This is the game that both dare not lose. With four points difference between the relegation strugglers, this might be an encounter in which the two teams will be very tentative and nervous, with neither wanting to over-commit.

On the plus side, Pools have been in fairly decent form of late and are keeping clean sheets. They are showing great desire and determination at the moment, and are definitely playing for their manager John Hughes. The north east outfit looked a little tired on Saturday, but a 0-0 scoreline against Yeovil represents a decent result.

Hartlepool don't score many on the road, whilst Oldham have failed to find the net in their last two outings. Giant striker (and FA Cup hero) Matt Smith won't feature having picked up an injury on Saturday. His aerial presence will be a huge blow.

The Boundary Park pitch is poor, and it might be a case of neither being able to break each other down. Pools went with a midfield 'three' against Yeovil, but Hughes might be a touch more defensive this Tuesday. Again using Hartlepool as a trade, I would play the 0-0 correct scoreline, with a poke at the unders looking the best bet. Opta stats would back this up if you are trading in the first 45 minutes, as the Latics have scored just 13 goals in the first-half of matches (a league low).

The draw In-Play would appeal most as an outright result pick.

Recommended bet:
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.804/5

Coventry City 1.804/5 v Colchester United 5.204/1, the draw 3.8014/5

New Coventry City boss Steven Pressley faces his debut home game at the Ricoh in midweek, fresh from his first win as boss on Saturday with a 2-1 win at Scunthorpe. Leon Clarke scored again (his 21st of the season), and he should be fit for an important match to keep the Sky Blues' play-off hopes alive.

Colchester played quite well at the weekend, only to lose 2-1 at home to Crewe. Prior to that they had kept three successive clean sheets and were showing a bit of fight.

The angle into this game is Colchester's lack of away goals, only 14 in total and the league's most impotent attack. With suspensions and injuries up front, Us boss Joe Dunne isn't overly blessed in the attacking options. A dart at correct scorelines involving the visitors not scoring would be my idea of a couple of trades. But the strongest bet is sticking with the hosts, who according to Opta stats, are unbeaten in their last six meetings with the Essex side (winning five).

Recommended bet:
Back Coventry to win @ 1.804/5

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ATP Indian Wells Betting: Ramos to make things tricky for Cilic while Murray may struggle against Donskoy

"The highest ranked player that Cilic has ever beaten at Indian Wells is Florent Serra, who was ranked number 73 when Cilic beat him here in 2011 and Ramos should have enough about his game to give the Croat a hard time again tonight.."

Back Ramos +3.5 games to beat Cilic at 2.01/1

Any Murray supporters beware! It's been an unpredictable start to proceedings at Indian Wells, so can Sean Calvert find some winners in today's second round matches?

The 2013 BNP Paribas Open continued to confound on Saturday, with no less than seven seeded casualties in the men's draw and another tough loss for my recommended bet.

David Nalbandian lost a tight one to Jerzy Janowicz and resorted to his time-honoured tradition of booting the advertising hoardings. Thankfully there wasn't a line judge sitting behind them this time, but the well-backed Nalbandian's supporters could empathise with the Argentine.

But there was a bright spot amongst the carnage, as David Ferrer's defeat to Kevin Anderson has opened the draw up nicely for my two outright recommended bets Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon.

The latter came back from 5-1 and match points down to defeat Paulo Lorenzi yesterday, while Berdych's chances of making at least the semi-finals look good with Ferrer's loss.

So, there's plenty to play for and Andy Murray begins his Indian Wells campaign tonight against improving Russian Evgeny Donskoy, but it would be a huge surprise if he were able to push the Scot close.

That said, Murray has lost in the first round here for the last two years in a row and it's certainly not his favourite venue. His Masters 1000 form hasn't been great lately and you have to go back to Shanghai 2011 for his last Masters title.

It could be worth an interest to side with Donskoy +6.5 games on the handicap in this one, as Murray hasn't played since the Australian Open and might be rusty enough to allow the Russian enough games to cover that quite generous allowance.

But one I prefer on the handicap is for Albert Ramos to cause Marin Cilic enough problems to beat the Croatian with a 3.5 game start at around 2.01/1.

The left-handed Spaniard defeated Cilic in their only hard court meeting in Shanghai at the end of 2011 and last year he took down Richard Gasquet in this tournament, so the conditions here suit Ramos.

They don't really suit Cilic though, as his record here is poor, with just three wins at this venue in total in his career. The highest ranked player that Cilic has ever beaten at Indian Wells is Florent Serra, who was ranked number 73 when Cilic beat him here in 2011 and Ramos should have enough about his game to give the Croat a hard time again tonight.

Recommended Bet
Back Ramos +3.5 games to beat Cilic at 2.01/1

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Premier League Results: United struggle while City thrive without Tevez

Premier League / Maxliu / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Manchester's Reds leave it late before securing home while City show they don't need Carlos with thumping win. Meanwhile, Kenny is king on Merseyside...

Manchester United may have only drifted to [1.74] but their fans experienced an anxious wait before Anderson's () minute goal set them on their way to a 2-0 win.

Two minutes before the Brazilian's goal, Norwich should have gone ahead when Anthony Pilkington broke through on goal. However, the winger shot wide and, as is often the way at Old Trafford, his team were punished shortly afterwards. The impressive Danny Wellbeck scored United's second shortly before full-time.

Unite's title rivals and neighbours Manchester City were far more emphatic as they thumped Blackburn 4-0 at Ewood Park. Supporters held up a banner which read Tevez Out and on this showing the Eastland's club don't need the Argentine. Adam Johnson, Mario Balotelli, Samir Nasri and Stefan Savic were all on target as City poured on the pain for beleagured Rovers. City are 3.7 to win the Premier League while Blackburn are [2.16] for the drop.

Liverpool traded at 2.9 as they came out on top in a lively Merseyside Derby. Playing with ten men following the dismissal of Jack Rodwell, Everton held the Reds at bay until the 71st minute. Dirk Kuyt had a penalty saved by Tim Howard so it was up to Andy Carroll and then Luis Suarez to win the match for Kenny Dalglish's team.

They were up to fourth in the table before Newcastle beat Wolves 2-1 at Molineux. Alan Pardew's team continued their sensational run and are now third, following today's win, for which they were backed at [3.45].

One of the season's other quiet successes so far are Aston Villa and their form continued today with a 2-0 win over Wigan. Gabriel Agbonlahor and Darren Bent scored either side of half-time to ensure that Alex McLeish's men remain unbeaten.

At the Stadium of Light, Sunderland and West Brom played out a lively 2-2 draw which was matched at [7.0] and rewarded those who grabbed the four goal stalemate at [18.5] in the correct score market.

Lee Dixon thinks history suggests a currently out-of-form Arsenal can still salvage something from a match where a goal glut will once again be on the cards....

Third visits last in Sunday's first match of the day and all the stats in the world point towards a comfortable Chelsea win. We simply can't ignore them, says Lee Dixon....

Tactics, team selection, systems and momentum will all play a huge part in the outcome of this match. Lets' make some money from guessing how all these factors will pan out, says Michael Cox....

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