BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Raonic's superb tie break form to continue against Berdych

"Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today."

Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

It's semi final Saturday at the BNP Paribas Masters and after landing a big-priced winner yesterday, Sean Calvert is back with his selections for today...

It was a profitable day of tennis betting on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters nice and early when Kevin Anderson won the opener of his match against Tomas Berdych.

My 3.7511/4 chance landed when Anderson won set one on the tie break and that proved to be the right wager to side with the South African in, as he rather predictably went on to lose from a break up in the decider.

That meant that Berdych qualified for the World Tour Finals and also qualified on the day were Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who surprisingly defeated Roger Federer in straight sets.

We start at 1.30pm UK time on Saturday, with an intriguing fourth career meeting between Berdych and Raonic.

This pair met here last year in the third round, when Berdych was a 7-6, 6-4 winner, but Raonic was a winner in the two before that and is a 1.845/6 favourite today.

Both players should be a fair bit more relaxed today having qualified for the O2 and as the odds suggest it's a tight one to call, with the winner likely to be the one who serves the better.

Raonic was very good yesterday against Federer in arguably the performance of his career, hitting 21 aces and winning 65 percent of points on his second serve - stats that will surely see him win today if he manages to repeat them.

Berdych has been scratchy all week, doing just enough each round to get through and not impressing in any of them, so I'm leaning towards the Canadian in this one.

The Czech may well show better form with the pressure of O2 qualification behind him though and it could pay to go with a tie break opening set here at a bigger price.

Raonic is much more likely to win it if it does reach a breaker, with Berdych weighing in with a really poor 9-16 (36%) win mark in tie breaks this year and he's lost the two he's played in Bercy this week.

Milos has been very good in breakers this week, winning all three and holding a 39-12 (76%) win mark in them in 2014.

Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today.

The 6.5n/a that's available about a 7-6 set one win for Raonic looks the one here, or the 1.845/6 about the Canadian winning for more circumspect punters is the other option.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

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Against All Odds: Independiente and Velez to keep us entertained

"Their last outing at home to Arsenal went over 2.5 and there’s a good chance that this one will follow suit."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Independiente v Velez @ 1.574/7

South America is the venue for Paul Robinson tonight as he is predicting at least three goals when Independiente take on Velez.

Independiente v Velez Sarsfield
Sunday August 24, 00:30 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Independiente are dining at the top table of Argentinian football once again following a one season spell in the second tier. Given that they are one of the traditional 'Big 5' in the country, their relegation in 2013 was somewhat of a shock. While they didn't win Primera B as expected, finishing third was enough to see them back in the top flight.

Despite the promotion, the Avellaneda based club have a new man in charge for this campaign and that person is former Godoy Cruz boss, Jorge Almirón. He began in excellent fashion with a 3-0 home victory over Atletico Rafaela, before falling to a 1-0 defeat at Estudiantes last weekend. 

It's the goal-side of things we're interested in here though and while there isn't much recent data to go on, there are reasons to believe that this game see goals. Firstly, their sole fixture at Estadio Libertadores de América this season went over 2.5 goals and the fact that they scored all three themselves in a good sign. It is also worth considering that five of their last eight in front of their own fans in all competitions have now gone over 2.5.

Velez Sarsfield are riding high at the top of the table following two successive wins in their opening couple of games. After narrowly missing out on topping the Torneo Inicial last year, they faltered in the second semester and ended up down in sixth place.

The main reason for their decline was their defensive record as with 26 conceded, only three other teams shipped more. Things went well at the other end - 34 scored was the highest total in the entire division - and that led to their matches averaging 3.16 goals each time. Their last outing at home to Arsenal went over 2.5 and there's a good chance that this one will follow suit.

We haven't had much luck lately but that's how it goes sometimes and a winning streak is often just around the corner. This looks like a solid selection at a decent price, which is why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.574/7 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Independiente v Velez @ 1.574/7

Wagered: 225 pts
Returned: 227.89 pts
P/L: + 2.89 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Bluebirds and Black Cats to go wild

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Against All Odds: Time to lay Sao Paulo again

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Against All Odds: The White Feather to thwart Rennes

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Against All Odds: Snoozefest for the Mattress Makers

"The Blanquillos have failed to score in two of their last three and of their 18 matches at home so far this term, they have scored one goal or less on 12 occasions – eight of which were blanks."

Lay Over 2.5 goals in Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid @ 1.9620/21 

Real Zaragoza welcome Atletico Madrid to La Romareda this evening knowing that they will surely have to win at all costs, however Paul Robinson thinks the away side will keep them at bay in a low scoring affair.

Real Zaragoza didn't start the season too badly but things have turned sour in 2013. They've won just two of 20 matches in this calendar year - losing 12, including their last two. Manolo Jiménez's men did have a brief rally a few weeks ago as they recorded back to back wins over Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano, but they weren't able to build on that and they look destined for the Segunda Division.

The Blanquillos have failed to score in two of their last three and of their 18 matches at home so far this term, they have scored one goal or less on 12 occasions - eight of which were blanks.

Atletico Madrid have had a fine campaign under Diego Simeone and while they'll be disappointed with their relatively early exit from the Europa League, they have comfortably finished third in La Liga and will be pitting their wits against the cream of European football next season.

It remains to be seen if Radamel Falcao will still be at the club for that though as he's been heavily linked with a move away - possibly to Monaco. The Colombian has netted 28 goals in the league this year for Atletico and while I'm sure he'll be trying his best to reach 30 - in what could be his final start for Simeone - he's scored just two in his last five appearances.

The Mattress Makers have conceded only one goal in their last seven on the road with five of those fixtures going under 2.5. Their defence is resolute and while Zaragoza need to go for the win, they should have enough quality to keep them out. All things considered, over 2.5 goals is just too short at around the 1.9620/21 mark and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid @ 1.9620/21 

Wagered: 151 pts
Returned: 137.11 pts
P/L – 13.89 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Stephen Kenny to get revenge at old club

"The Lilywhites have amassed 24 points from 13 fixtures to date, losing just three times."

Lay Shamrock Rovers v Dundalk @ 1.794/5 

Dundalk have made a bright start to their campaign in Ireland and Paul Robinson is backing them to continue their good form by avoiding defeat during the 90 minutes in their EA Sports Cup tie at Shamrock Rovers this evening.

Shamrock Rovers could only finish in fourth place last year and that meant a change of manager for the Hoops. Trevor Croly was appointed as boss in 2013 and the former assistant had his first job as a number one. It's been a slow beginning for him though as Rovers are only sixth in the table after 14 games with just three victories to their name.

In defence of the manager, his side have only lost twice, but an astonishing nine draws has hindered their progress and they already trail Sligo at the top by 12 points having played a game more. Things have been a bit better away from the league though as they lifted the Setanta Cup 10 days ago, beating Drogheda 7-1 in the final.

Dundalk also have a new manager at the helm and in a twist of fate, the man in charge is Stephen Kenny. Kenny was sacked by Shamrock Rovers last September after a 1-0 home defeat to Bohemians.

He is doing much better at the moment though as he has his side up in fourth place - a quite remarkable feat considering that they had to come through a relegation play-off tie to keep their top flight status last year.

The Lilywhites have amassed 24 points from 13 fixtures to date, losing just three times. One of those defeats was at Tallaght Stadium and Dundalk do have a terrible head to head record with Shamrock, but this is the cup and they will be highly motivated to exact revenge.

Dundalk have been the better team this season and although Shamrock Rovers do appear to have the Indian sign over them, I think they have to be opposed to get the job done in 90 minutes at around the 1.794/5 mark. That's why, at the prices, I'm making them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Shamrock Rovers v Dundalk @ 1.794/5

Wagered: 140 pts
Returned: 128.41 pts
P/L – 11.59 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Bilbao to finish with a flourish

"Now that Manolo Jiménez’s side are clear of the drop zone it will be interesting to see if they still play with the same intensity and desire that they did in their last two at La Romareda."

Lay Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao @ 1.865/6 

Zaragoza are odds-on for their Spanish Primera Division clash with Athletic Bilbao this evening but Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune in to Sky Sports Interactive at 18:00 could be in for a surprise result.

Real Zaragoza have climbed out of the relegation zone thanks to two wins and a draw in their last three. They recorded back to back victories at home over Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano before earning a point at Levante last time. That run came just at the right time and it ended an incredible spell of 15 without victory.

Now that Manolo Jiménez's side are clear of the drop zone it will be interesting to see if they still play with the same intensity and desire that they did in their last two at La Romareda. It's hard to ignore their dreadful form in 2013 and they aren't at full strength due to injuries and suspensions - the loss of Glenn Loovens in particular being a blow.

Athletic Bilbao haven't been able to hit the dizzy heights of last season where they reached the Europa League final and came a respectable 10th in La Liga. They just haven't been able to score the goals that they did last term and even Fernando Llorente has only managed four in all competitions. 

Nevertheless, Marcelo Bielsa's men are four unbeaten and they won their previous match last weekend. The Lions are in 14th place so with just three games to go they don't have anything to play for as such, although given their poor season thus far, they'll at least want to finish on a high. They've drawn their last two away from San Mamés Stadium and they should have enough quality to keep that undefeated record going today.

Zaragoza are very short for a team in their predicament, so at around the 1.865/6 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao @ 1.865/6 

Wagered: 138 pts
Returned: 126.31 pts
P/L – 11.69 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: AZ v PSV = Goals

"It’s all about goals, goals, goals with AZ and all five of their cup matches have gone over 2.5, with four going over 3.5."

Lay Under 3.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar v PSV @ 1.814/5

It's the final of the Dutch Cup this evening and Paul Robinson thinks we should be in for plenty of goals between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven.

AZ have had a really poor league campaign and with just one game to go, they look set to miss out on the Europa League play-off places. They had a miserable middle-part of the season but they have at least come good towards the end and have won four of their last six in the Eredivisie.

Gertjan Verbeek's side have done well in the Dutch Cup though and after being aided by some kind draws in the earlier rounds, they showed their quality by thrashing newly crowned league champions Ajax by three goals to nil in the semis.

It's all about goals, goals, goals with AZ and all five of their cup matches have gone over 2.5, with four going over 3.5. It's a similar story in the league as their last four results have been 6-0, 1-3, 4-0 and 4-0. 

PSV will have been disappointed to lose out to Ajax in the Eredivisie but they can at least gain some consolation by winning their 10th KNVB Cup. Dick Advocaat's men warmed up for the final by winning their last three, and like their opponents, they are also all about goals.

The Peasants have scored an incredible 102 league goals this season and with 40 conceded, their fixtures have averaged a huge 4.3 goals each time. They also seem to produce the goods against AZ as the last six meetings between the pair have all gone over 3.5 goals, with two going over 4.5 and their match in September going over 5.5.

Dutch football is usually good for high scoring affairs and tonight should be no different. That's why, with under 3.5 goals trading at around the 1.814/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar v PSV @ 1.814/5 

Wagered: 128 pts
Returned: 125.01 pts
P/L – 12.99 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Lee Dixon: Newcastle to inch towards safety with Saturday stalemate against Liverpool

"Like Newcastle, Liverpool sit below their local rivals in the table and it's hard to see how Brendan Rodgers is going to motivate his men for the final four games.

Back the draw @ 3.613/5 

Liverpool go to St James' Park without their talisman and Newcastle have a good chance of securing the points they need for survival - but will a faltering Toon produce a winning performance?

The threat of relegation continues to haunt Newcastle - from a distance admittedly - but they have a big chance to banish those fears for good on Saturday evening against a Liverpool side lacking their talisman, Luis Suarez.

Any team would miss a 30-goal striker, but Suarez has made so many vital interventions in Liverpool's season that they will be significantly weakened by his absence. The furore over Suarez's actions at Anfield last Sunday and the accompanying reaction from the club threatens to overshadow the entire season. For me, Liverpool must take the punishment and move on. Ten games is an entirely appropriate penalty for what was a piece of utterly outrageous behaviour which has no place in the game. 

The most amazing thing for me was how Branislav Ivanovic took it without retaliating. I think the surprise took him more than anything. If it had happened against Martin Keown I doubt Suarez would have been around to score a 96th minute equaliser anyway!
So will Newcastle take advantage of an under strength Liverpool? Doubtful, I'm afraid. 

The Toon's home record isn't particularly special, having suffered seven league defeats at St James's Park this season, while current form is nothing to write home about either with seven points from the last 18 available. Alan Pardew's men looked nervous at WBA last time out despite taking the lead and they need to conquer that during the run-in.  

Going deep in the Europa League clearly affected Newcastle this season and the absence of midweek games will surely help on the closing stretch. With six points between the Toon and 18th placed Wigan (though the Latics have a game in hand) I ultimately expect Pardew to lead his team to safety, but they will want to get to 40 points as soon as possible. Nevertheless, odds of 23.022/1 are a true representation of Newcastle's relegation chances. 

Liverpool's season is fading to an inglorious end - three draws in recent weeks have taken the wind out of their sails and has as good as finished their unlikely dream of a top four finish. Like Newcastle they sit below their local rivals in the table and it's hard to see how Brendan Rodgers is going to motivate his men for the final four games.

Strangely enough they might find some encouragement upfront where goalscoring responsibilities will fall on Daniel Sturridge. The England man must use the next few games to send Rodgers a clear message about his claims for a first XI role next season. I do like Sturridge, but he is inconsistent. Liverpool will hope he shows his best during the run-in. 

Though Newcastle are not in a great state, I don't foresee Sturridge - or any of his team-mates - scoring a winner at St James'. I really don't see much between these two outfits and I fancy a draw on Saturday, and not a particularly entertaining one at that. A goal apiece looks the likely scoreline but I'll play it safe by restricting my bet to the match odds market. 

Recommended Bets 
Back the draw @ 3.613/5 

Prior to the shocking display against Sunderland, Newcastle had won their previous four at St James' and were looking like they would be safe for another season. However, as Lee says a nervy away draw at WBA and Newcastle are right in this relegation battle. With only one away win this season and their last home game against Arsenal on the final day of the season they must be looking to take something out of this game.

Without Luis Suarez this could be a good time to be facing the Reds, but Liverpool are resilient, suffering only one defeat in their last eight (away Southampton), their last three games all ended as draws. I think Newcastle will get something out of this game and I will be backing them with a bit of safety in the DRAW NO BET market at around 2.2.

As Lee mentions, without Luis Suarez, the goalscoring burden will fall on Daniel Sturridge, who was impressive against both Reading and Chelsea in Liverpool’s previous two fixtures. But so much of his good play has been because of fantastic interplay with Suarez – and without that link-up play, I’m not convinced he’ll be a significant goalscoring threat. I can see Liverpool dominating without penetrating, and I like the look of under 2.5 goals at 2.04.

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Against All Odds: A Rafa European special on the way in Switzerland

"It’s hard to see The Blues going wild tonight, especially as Rafa will likely adopt a quite cautious approach."

Lay Over 2.5 goals in Basel v Chelsea @ 1.9720/21 

Chelsea travel to Switzerland to take on Basel in a Europa League semi-final live on ITV1 at 20:05 and Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a low scoring game.

Basel are classed as the outsiders of the remaining four to lift the trophy but they have been excellent in the competition thus far and it would be dangerous to write them off. After coming through a group that contained both Sporting Lisbon and Genk, Murat Yakin's men have knocked out three sides who were all talked about as possible winners. They beat Dnipro 3-1 on aggregate, Zenit 2-1 and saw off Tottenham on penalties after a pair of 2-2 draws.

Marco Streller leads the way with four Europa League goals for the Swiss outfit, but it's Mohamed Salah who has impressed the most with his performances - notably the one he put in at White Hart Lane. That tie might have finished 4-4 on aggregate but I expect this one to be much more like their other matches in this tournament. Seven of their previous 10 this term had gone under 2.5 goals, including all their games in the knockout phase. 

Chelsea edged out Rubin Kazan in the quarter-finals, beating them 5-4 on aggregate over two legs. Prior to that they'd knocked out Sparta Prague and Steaua Bucharest, but again, the margins of victory were hardly convincing. Rafa Benitez is the master of finding a way to win in Europe though and he will love nothing more than to add another major trophy to his CV before departing the club in May.

Fernando Torres will lead the line in the absence of Demba Ba and while his goal record isn't actually as bad as some people make out - he's outscored the likes of Rooney and Tevez this season - it's hard to see The Blues going wild tonight, especially as Rafa will likely adopt a quite cautious approach.

Over 2.5 goals is trading at a shade of odds-on at 1.9720/21 and that seems too short to me as I'm expecting a somewhat tentative affair, especially in the early stages. That's why, at the prices, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Basel v Chelsea @ 1.9720/21 

Wagered: 114 pts
Returned: 100.38 pts
P/L – 13.62 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Juve and Bayern to keep it tight

"The Old Lady face a huge uphill battle to make the last four and their only chance of doing so is keeping a clean sheet."

Lay Over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Bayern Munich @ 1.8810/11 

Juventus and Bayern Munich meet in the Champions League this evening and while the Betfair markets are predicting plenty of goals, Paul Robinson thinks the value could be in opposing them.

Juventus lost the first leg in Germany 2-0 and in truth, they were outclassed for the majority of the 90 minutes. The Germans got an early lead and then never looked back, producing an authoritative performance. The Italians best chances fell to Arturo Vidal but he picked up a booking at the Allianz Arena and is suspended tonight, along with defender Stephan Lichtsteiner.

The Old Lady face a huge uphill battle to make the last four and their only chance of doing so is keeping a clean sheet. If they concede then they will need to score four goals and Bayern haven't conceded that many in the Champions League since a 4-0 hammering at Barcelona in 2009.

FCB have their domestic league sewn up so they can 100% focus on avenging their penalty shoot-out final loss to Chelsea last year. They have looked good in this competition for the most part this season, although it's mildly concerning that after securing a 3-1 lead over Arsenal in the last 16, they ended up scraping through after losing the second leg 2-0. 

Jupp Heynckes will no doubt remind his players of that before kick off tonight and while they will surely try and get that all important away goal, keeping a clean sheet for as long as possible will be the main objective. Munich have been defensively excellent this term, especially in the Bundesliga as they have conceded just 13 times in 28 matches.  

There is plenty of goal threat on show but I'd argue that each sides' defence is the strongest part of their team. The Germans will set out to stifle the Italians and I can see this staying 0-0 for quite a long time. That's why, with over 2.5 goals trading around the 1.8810/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Bayern Munich @ 1.8810/11 

This match is live on Sky Sports Four at 19:45

Wagered: 99 pts
Returned: 88.95 pts
P/L – 10.05 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Crawley to blunt The Blades

"Sheffield United need to start winning games if they want to secure promotion back to the Championship but they just don’t seem to have the creativity to put teams to the sword, especially at home."

Lay Sheffield United v Crawley Town @ 1.794/5 

Sheffield United are odds-on for their League One clash with Crawley Town this evening but with just one home win in their last seven, Paul Robinson thinks they have to be opposed.

The Blades were the pre-season favourites for the League One title and while they're still in with a chance of achieving it, the play-offs are looking more and more likely. They are currently fifth in the table, eight points off top spot and six adrift of the second automatic promotion place. They do have games in hand though, which if they won, they'd go second.

Danny Wilson's side have only lost six times this term - the lowest amount in the entire division - but they have drawn far too many, especially at home. At Bramall Lane, United have drawn their last three 0-0 and the 3-0 win over Colchester in February is their only league victory in front of their own fans since Boxing Day. In fact, they have won just seven of 19 at home this season, a win percentage of 37%.

Crawley Town have risen through the divisions in recent years and after finishing third in League Two last time, they were fancied in some quarters to earn another promotion to the Championship. Things haven't quite worked out after a bright start though and with just five games to go, they are in 13th place with 58 points.

In fairness to Richie Barker's men though, they haven't been losing too many recently. Similarly to their opponents, they have been drawing most of their matches, which would do us just fine tonight. The Reds have been defeated only once in their last nine and once in their last half dozen away from Broadfield Stadium.

Sheffield United need to start winning games if they want to secure promotion back to the Championship but they just don't seem to have the creativity to put teams to the sword, especially at home. Crawley are a resilient outfit and I feel they have been underestimated by the Betfair market for this one. Therefore, with United trading around the 1.794/5 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Sheffield United v Crawley Town @ 1.794/5 

Wagered: 98 pts
Returned: 86.74 pts
P/L – 11.26 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: PSV 's title hopes to be dented by Roda JC

"The 0-1 loss to Feyenoord ended a run of five unbeaten at Parkstad Limburg Stadion for the club from Kerkrade."

Lay PSV v Roda JC @ 1.422/5 

Title chasing PSV are long odds-on for their trip to Roda JC in the Dutch Eredivisie this morning but Paul Robinson thinks they could suffer a surprise setback.

Roda JC are down in 16th place in the league, which is the final remaining relegation play-off place. This is obviously disappointing for a club who finished 10th last year, but it's quite tight down at the bottom and they are only four points behind PEC Zwolle who are 13th. 

The international break came at a good time for Ruud Brood's men as they had just lost back to back games for the first time since November. In fairness to Roda, both defeats were by a single goal margin and prior to that they hammered Groningen 4-1.

The 0-1 loss to Feyenoord ended a run of five unbeaten at Parkstad Limburg Stadion for the club from Kerkrade. It was also the first time in four that they'd failed to score a goal as before that blank, they had treated their fans to 11 in 360 minutes of home football.

PSV are looking to reclaim the crown that they last won in 2008. They are currently second in the league, just a single point behind leaders Ajax, with a far superior goal difference. They got back to winning ways in their last match by beating RKC Waalwijk 2-0 but they are prone to the odd slip up, as highlighted by the 2-1 defeat at Heerenveen at the beginning of March.

Dick Advocaat's side have struggled on the road of late, and in truth, they haven't been that great away all season for a team in their position. The Peasants have won just six of 13 away from home and they've picked up only one point from a possible nine since the end of January.

A further concern for Advocaat is that Luciano Narsingh remains sidelined through injury and Dries Mertens is suspended, and he's netted 15 goals for PSV this season.

Clearly PSV are the most likely team to win this match and they are the worthy favourites. I just feel their odds of 1.422/5 are just too short though, especially given their recent away form. That's why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay PSV v Roda JC @ 1.422/5 

This match is live on ESPN and Betfair Live Video at 11:30

Wagered: 89 pts
Returned: 83.48 pts
P/L – 5.52 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Scotland to start the Rhodes to redemption

"To put it bluntly, Serbia are far too short at around the 1.635/8 mark to win this match and I have to make them my lay of the day."

Lay Serbia v Scotland @ 1.635/8 

Scotland have been written off by almost everyone and they travel to Serbia tonight as huge outsiders, but Paul Robinson thinks that they can restore some pride in the Balkans.

Serbia are fourth in Group A, and like their opponents, they won't be qualifying for Rio 2014. Former star player, Siniša Mihajlovic is the current head coach but he has hardly pulled up any trees in his time as boss. His reign began with three friendly defeats and he didn't get his first win until his sixth game, where the Serbs hammered a depleted and out of form Wales side.

Things took a turn for the worse as they were thrashed at home by Belgium and followed that up with a 1-0 defeat away at minnows Macedonia. Mihajlovic's men did then win a couple of friendlies but they were against Chile and Cyprus, and they were comfortably beaten on Friday in Croatia. 

The point I'm trying to make is that Serbia just aren't very good, despite having the services of Premier League stars like Branislav Ivanovic and Matija Nastasic at their disposal. They lack a bit in the forward areas, which is illustrated by the fact that aside from the Welsh battering, they have failed to score in their other two home games under Mihajlovic.

Scotland are bottom of Group A with two points and they could really do with finishing higher up than that so their UEFA coefficient doesn't drop for the next qualifying tournament. Gordon Strachan has replaced Craig Levein and despite edging past Estonia in his opening match in charge, they were beaten and largely outplayed by Wales on Friday.

Steven Fletcher went off injured in that game and he is likely to be replaced by Jordan Rhodes this evening. I think that could prove vital for the Scots as the Blackburn Rovers player looks like a real prospect and scores goals for fun. 

Robert Snodgrass is suspended after his red card and Scotland are missing some first choice defenders but I just have a feeling that The Tartan Army will brave the snowy conditions and pick up a positive result.

To put it bluntly, Serbia are far too short at around the 1.635/8 mark to win this match and I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Serbia v Scotland @ 1.635/8 

This match is live on ESPN & BBC Scotland at 19:30

Wagered: 84 pts
Returned: 83.48 pts
P/L – 0.52 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Johnson to sink on debut against Pools

"Prior to defeats at Doncaster and Coventry, Jeff Stelling’s favourite club hadn’t lost in five on the road, including a victory at Sheffield United."

Lay Oldham v Hartlepool @ 1.9620/21 

Oldham are odds-on for their huge relegation six pointer with Hartlepool in League One tonight but with four defeats in a row in all competitions, Paul Robinson feels they have to be taken on.

Despite reaching the last 16 of the FA Cup, including a victory over Liverpool, Oldham are battling the drop in League One, two points adrift of safety. They do have a couple of games in hand over their rivals but given their form you wouldn't be confident of them hauling themselves out of the relegation zone. 

Lee Johnson was appointed as their new permanent manager on Monday making him the youngest manager in the football league. This is his first ever managerial role and I'm not sure it was the right way for Oldham to go as I would have thought they'd need an experienced man to get them out of trouble and then maybe appoint a younger guy in the summer.

He certainly has a huge job on his hands as the Latics have lost their last three in the league without scoring a goal - two of which were at home. In fact, Oldham have won just five of 18 at Boundary Park this term, drawing three and losing 10. 

Hartlepool were written off by many earlier in the campaign as they won just one of their first 23 games. John Hughes took over the managerial reigns towards the end of 2012 and while it took him a little time to turn things around, he's now started to get a tune out of his players and they've lost only four of their last 15 - winning six of them.

Admittedly the Monkey Hangers have picked up just two points from a possible 12 in March, but three of those games were against teams in the top eight. Prior to defeats at Doncaster and Coventry, Jeff Stelling's favourite club hadn't lost in five on the road, including a victory at Sheffield United.

One place and four points separate these two sides but you feel that it's a must win for Hartlepool given that they have played two extra games. While three points would be a huge boost to Oldham, a draw wouldn't be the end of the world. Their current form just doesn't warrant their odds of 1.9620/21, no matter the opposition, and that's why I have to make Oldham my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Oldham v Hartlepool @ 1.9620/21 

Wagered: 77 pts
Returned: 73.70 pts
P/L – 3.30 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Keen as mustard for goals at Dijon

"Dijon’s matches have been averaging dead on 2.5 goals this term, with 13 of their 28 having had three or more, including three of their last five at home."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dijon v Nantes @ 1.684/6 

Dijon and Nantes meet tonight in France's Ligue Two and while the Betfair market is cautious about the chances of there being goals, Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for at least three.

Dijon are seventh in the table after 28 games played and that must be considered a slight disappointment for a club who were relegated from the top flight last year. They are now eight points off the promotion places - although they do have a game in hand - and that's largely thanks to the fact that they've picked up just three points from a possible 12 recently.

While Olivier Dall'Oglio's team only lost one of those games, three draws in a row isn't good enough, especially the two against Niort and Clermont who are both battling relegation. It's goals that we're more interested in here though and Dijon's matches have been averaging dead on 2.5 goals this term, with 13 of their 28 having had three or more, including three of their last five at home.

Nantes are flying this season and they find themselves in second place, just four points behind leaders Monaco with a game in hand. They are the third top scorers in the division and have the joint best defensive record so it's easy to see why they're doing so well. They come into this match on the back of three successive victories and with Monaco dropping points again on Friday, their incentive to win has got even bigger.

As far as the goals go, five of their last seven have gone over 2.5, with their last three scorelines on the road reading 0-3, 2-1, 1-2. Michel Der Zakarian's team may only have had 11 of their 28 fixtures go over this season, but as you can see, that is becoming a much more common trend in recent weeks.

Both of these two sides have huge motivation to win this game so I'm hopeful that they won't settle for a draw, especially if the scores are tied going into the final 20 minutes as happens in many French matches. I'd argue that the recent stats show that there could be goals in this game, so with under 2.5 trading as low as 1.684/6 I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Dijon v Nantes @ 1.684/6 

Wagered: 76 pts
Returned: 71.30 pts
P/L – 4.70 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Benfica just too short for Primeira Liga clash

"Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven’t lost to them in the league at home for two seasons."

Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5

Benfica are long odds-on for their trip to Guimaraes in the Primeria Liga this evening and while they are the most likely winners, Paul Robinson thinks their price is just too short and has to be opposed.

Guimaraes are up to sixth in the league after back to back victories and after just missing out on European qualification last term, they have a great shot of making amends this time around. Pacos de Ferreira may be out of sight in fourth place, but they are level on points with Rio Ave in the last remaining qualifying spot, with only goal difference splitting them.

After a bit of a shaky start to their campaign at home, Rui Vitória's side have won three of their last five at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, losing just one to the reigning champions Porto. All those victories came with clean sheets and when they played Benfica at home last season, they beat them 1-0.  

Benfica are flying at the moment - unbeaten in the league and through to the quarter-finals of the Europa. They've won their last four Primeira Liga matches to nil, scoring a total of 10 goals. They really are in red-hot form, with Oscar Cardozo leading the way with 25 goals in all competitions.

They aren't completely infallible though as Braga managed to knock them out of the Taca da Liga on penalties at the end of February and another concern I have is that they had a hard game in France on Thursday against Bordeaux. 

It's quite clear that Jorge Jesus' men are the worthy favourites for this clash, but they are far from nailed on. Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven't lost to them in the league at home for two seasons. Add in the fact that Benfica have had less than 72 hours since their last match and it makes me believe that their odds of 1.392/5 are just too short and have to be opposed. That's why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5 

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 20:30

Wagered: 75 pts
Returned: 71.30 pts
P/L – 3.70 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Posh to have a jolly up at the seaside

"The one thing Peterborough have in their favour over a lot of the teams around them is that they can score plenty of goals."

Lay Blackpool v Peterborough @ 1.9210/11

Peterborough travel north to Blackpool this afternoon and Paul Robinson thinks they can upset the odds at Bloomfield Road.

Blackpool began life back in the Championship in quite a promising fashion and up until Christmas time they were in the play-off mix. It's been downhill in 2013 though and while they have excuses - losing Ian Holloway towards the end of the year and then losing his replacement in January - their current position of 13th can't quite be considered good enough at this level.

Paul Ince is the new man in charge and while he's lost just one of his five games in the hot seat, he's only won one of them. That victory came last time out at high flying Watford, which on the face of it would signify a possible revival for The Seasiders, but I'd treat it with caution as Watford were missing a couple of key players and largely underperformed. My enthusiasm is further tempered by the fact that Blackpool have won just two of their last 15 at home and they haven't scored in either of their last two.

Peterborough are fighting relegation - 22nd in the table and two points adrift of safety having played a game more than Barnsley above them. Darren Ferguson's men are in decent form at the moment though, and in truth, they have been since the middle of December. 

Posh ended a run of one point from a possible 24 by beating Cardiff in Wales and since then they've only lost four of their next 15. They're undefeated in four; winning at Blackburn, drawing at Elland Road and holding both Charlton and Ipswich at home. 

The one thing Peterborough have in their favour over a lot of the teams around them is that they can score plenty of goals. This could prove crucial in their quest for survival and it's helped them get some good results on the road. They've netted 17 times in their last eight away fixtures and as Blackpool haven't been too prolific lately, that could be the difference today.

On current form I can't have Blackpool at odds-on, so with their price trading around the 1.9210/11 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Blackpool v Peterborough @ 1.9210/11 

Wagered: 74 pts
Returned: 69.27 pts
P/L – 4.73 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Rome to the capital of goals

"The Reds need at least two goals to have any chance of progress so the manager will no doubt set up an attacking team."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Lazio v Stuttgart @ 1.834/5 

Lazio and Stuttgart meet in the second leg of their Europa League tie this evening and Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a few goals.

Three winners from four selections has got us back on the front foot and I'm hopeful of finishing the week in style.

Lazio were sent off at a tasty price in Germany last week and they duly delivered with a 2-0 victory to put them within touching distance of the quarter-finals. They were beaten in Serie A on Sunday though, conceding two goals at home to Fiorentina and that must be a slight concern for Vladimir Petkovic.

In fairness to Lazio though, they have a fantastic record at Stadio Olimpico usually. That defeat at the weekend was only their second in front of their own fans since September. They are usually good for a couple of goals as well and while they have racked up a fair few clean sheets, tonight's opponents will have to throw caution to the wind.

Stuttgart have faltered since the winter break; seven losses from a dozen matches and just three wins. They've lost their last three on the bounce and the 1-0 home defeat to Hamburg on Sunday was not a good way to prepare for their trip to Rome.

Bruno Labbadia will take a bit of hope from the fact that they've won two from their last three on the road. The Reds need at least two goals to have any chance of progress so the manager will no doubt set up an attacking team. An early goal is absolutely vital but given the necessity to push forward, they will be susceptible to the Italians on the counter attack.

This could possibly turn out to be a damp squib, especially if Lazio get a goal up, but I think there is definite value in taking on under 2.5 goals. That's why, at around the 1.834/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Lazio v Stuttgart @ 1.834/5 

Wagered: 72 pts
Returned: 67.12 pts
P/L – 4.88 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

There are no comments on this article.

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