BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Raonic's superb tie break form to continue against Berdych

"Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today."

Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

It's semi final Saturday at the BNP Paribas Masters and after landing a big-priced winner yesterday, Sean Calvert is back with his selections for today...

It was a profitable day of tennis betting on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters nice and early when Kevin Anderson won the opener of his match against Tomas Berdych.

My 3.7511/4 chance landed when Anderson won set one on the tie break and that proved to be the right wager to side with the South African in, as he rather predictably went on to lose from a break up in the decider.

That meant that Berdych qualified for the World Tour Finals and also qualified on the day were Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who surprisingly defeated Roger Federer in straight sets.

We start at 1.30pm UK time on Saturday, with an intriguing fourth career meeting between Berdych and Raonic.

This pair met here last year in the third round, when Berdych was a 7-6, 6-4 winner, but Raonic was a winner in the two before that and is a 1.845/6 favourite today.

Both players should be a fair bit more relaxed today having qualified for the O2 and as the odds suggest it's a tight one to call, with the winner likely to be the one who serves the better.

Raonic was very good yesterday against Federer in arguably the performance of his career, hitting 21 aces and winning 65 percent of points on his second serve - stats that will surely see him win today if he manages to repeat them.

Berdych has been scratchy all week, doing just enough each round to get through and not impressing in any of them, so I'm leaning towards the Canadian in this one.

The Czech may well show better form with the pressure of O2 qualification behind him though and it could pay to go with a tie break opening set here at a bigger price.

Raonic is much more likely to win it if it does reach a breaker, with Berdych weighing in with a really poor 9-16 (36%) win mark in tie breaks this year and he's lost the two he's played in Bercy this week.

Milos has been very good in breakers this week, winning all three and holding a 39-12 (76%) win mark in them in 2014.

Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today.

The 6.5n/a that's available about a 7-6 set one win for Raonic looks the one here, or the 1.845/6 about the Canadian winning for more circumspect punters is the other option.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

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Players Championship Tips: Masters man Scott one of four three-ball selections on day one at Sawgrass

"Nick Watney took a little while to adjust to his new Nike clubs but has hit upon a real consistent run of results in recent months."

Back Nick Watney @ 2.77/4 

Golf's Fifth Major begins at Sawgrass on Thursday and what better way to get in the mood than a sprinkling of three-ball bets? Dan Geraghty has picked a quartet to follow on day one...

Experience is key at TPC Sawgrass and recent Masters winner Adam Scott has it in abundance. The Australian fulfilled his potential in devastating fashion at Augusta. With that confidence boost it would be no surprise to see him put in a strong performance this week at a venue where he became the youngest winner of the Players Championship in 2004 (at 23 years old). Scott tees off in the first round with Rory McIlroy, who says Sawgrass doesn't suit him and Steve Stricker who may be the danger at a big price.

Tim Clark is another former Players champion and is perhaps a worthy favourite for his three-ball. However, Kevin Streelman has been in superb form this season and he too has some good rounds at the Players on his CV. The American rates the bet at a nice price. D A Points makes up the trio - in three appearances here his form figures read M/M/WD.

Boo Weekley has bounced back to form with a bang this year and in a weak three-ball stands out as a strong pick against first round opponents Andres Romero, who is again struggling for form, and David Lingmerth who is making his debut in this event. Weekley was 21st here in 2008 when last in this kind of form.

Nick Watney took a little while to adjust to his new Nike clubs but has hit upon a real consistent run of results in recent months. The American's form figures at Sawgrass are at least as good as three-ball favourite Lee Westwood's, if not better. Ian Poulter makes up the trio, the Englishman has some fine rounds here to his name but has been struggling for form this year.

Recommended Bets 
Back Adam Scott @ 2.47/5 
Back Kevin Streelman @ 2.75n/a 
Back Boo Weekley @ 1.910/11 
Back Nick Watney @ 2.77/4 
*Follow me on twitter: @dangeraghty10

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US Masters 2013 > Acca Insurance

Place a 2/3 ball multiple fourfold (or above) on the US Masters 2013 and if one leg let's you down, we'll refund your FULL stake up to a maximum of £/€50!

Place a 2/3 ball multiple fourfold (or above) on the US Masters 2013 and if one leg let's you down, we'll refund your FULL stake up to a maximum of £/€50!

Augusta National is NOT a catch-up course and a fast start is imperative. Mistakes will always happen and you need a good start. The first four names on the day one leaderboard last year were Lee Westwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Peter Hanson and Bubba Watson and they filled four of the first six places at the finish. Mickelson, who opened with a disastrous 74 and Matt Kuchar, who shot 71 on day one, were the other two in the top-six.

Tiger and Phil repeatedly buck the trends at Augusta and they're the only two men to win the event having finished day one outside of the top-ten since Mark O'Meara won from tied 25th and five off the pace in 1998.

The draw has thrown up some intriguing 3 ball pairings and here are the pick of the tee-off times on Thursday;

14:06 Lee Westwood / Jim Furyk / Mike Weir
14:39 Charl Schwartzel / Peter Hanson / Webb Simpson
15:34 Bubba Watson / Ian Poulter / Steven Fox
15:45 Tiger Woods / Luke Donald / Scott Piercy
17:57 Adam Scott / Sergio Garcia / Angel Cabrera
18:30 Phil Mickelson / Louis Oosthuizen / Martin Kaymer
18:41 Rory McIlroy / Keegan Bradley / Fredrik Jacobson

Who will you put in your acca? Check the latest prices here.

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, 7.00pm on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday and 6.00pm Sunday.

Live on BBC 2 over the weekend - 7.30pm on Saturday and 6.30pm on Sunday

Can I take part?

Only customers from the UK, Republic of Ireland and Spain can benefit from this promotion. You can only take part using one account.

What do I need to do?

Place at least £/€5 on a 2/3-ball multiple fourfold (or above) on the US Masters 2013.

How does the Promotion work?

If your multiple has exactly one losing result, we will refund your full stake up to a maximum of £/€50. If you get two or more results wrong, or your bet wins, you will not receive a credit.

Only your first bet placed per round counts. Should a player in the 2/3 ball not tee-off, then all bets in that 2/3 ball will be void. Any player who withdraws or is disqualified having played a stroke in that round will be settled as a loser providing at least one other player completes that round. Should all players fail to complete the round then all bets will be void.

If any of the matches selected as part of your qualifying multiples bet are postponed or any selections made void, leaving you with fewer than four active selections in your qualifying bet, then you will not be eligible for this promotion. 72 hole match-bets do not qualify.

When will I be credited?

You will be credited within 72 hours of the end of the applicable round.

Betfair Standard Terms & Conditions apply.

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US Masters Betting: 101 reasons why Westwood is Major value for the win at Augusta

"Westwood now has the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he’s now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling."

Lee Westwood has come close at Augusta in two of the last three seasons. Ralph Ellis says this could be the year when an improved short game means he's ready to be measured up for the Green Jacket...

By his own admission Lee Westwood once had more than 100 putters stored in his garage. While Tiger Woods took the same battered old implement from one winning tournament to the other for years, Worksop's finest was always looking for the magic stick which would sort out the one big weakness in his game.

It's the oldest adage in golf that you drive for show and putt for dough, and Westwood has long been its biggest example. Brilliant from tee to green (his ex caddy Billy Foster claims he's always been the world's best), his short game has never quite matched up.

Take last year's Masters, for example. Around four days at Augusta he took 128 putts, a total exceeded by only three others who played all 72 holes, and yet still finished just two shots short of a play-off. It was probably the most glaring example of his problems in a year when he stayed in the world's top ten despite being ranked 189th for scrambling and 174th in strokes gained/putting on the PGA tour. It doesn't take a genius to work out what needed to be solved to take the last step and actually win a Major.

Much has been made of Westwood's decision to leave his Nottingham roots and move his family to Florida. It's been part of a drastic change, with sacked caddies, coaches and other specialists left in his wake.

But one side effect of living in America was the chance to do something about his short game, and not only the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he's now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling. The chip shots are going close enough to the hole that he hasn't had to rely on putting.

Living in the States also allowed him to spend some time at Ping's headquarters in Arizona to have his putting stroke put under high-tec analysis with HD cameras establishing that he was cutting slightly across the ball from outside to inside. If you're bothered about the technical side he will now use a Counterbalanced Ping Scottsdale TR Anser B. If you're not, all you need to know is that it has a longer, 38 inch shaft and a higher mass to keep the face more square to the target. He used it in anger for the first time in the Shell Houston Open and the result was a top ten finish. In his opening round he took just 26 putts.

Now I know Augusta's lightning fast greens are a different matter, but that does tend to make Westwood's current price of 3.45n/a for a top ten finish in the Masters rather tempting. Come to that he's got the pedigree to think that backing him at 3433/1 to be the winner will give you a very good run for your money. You're talking about a player who has been in the top three in two of the last three seasons, so sort out his most glaring fault and it could be time to take the final step.

He once had 100 putters. Could it be that the 101st will be the one that Westwood prizes most?

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US Masters: Top five Augusta memories ... and accompanying bets!

"Faldo was unpopular for his single-minded commitment and sometimes miserable demeanour, but I loved his determination to be the best. Choose from Justin Rose, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter or David Lynn as the Top English player this year." 

Augusta serves up classic moments year after year so we sent Ralph Ellis to Youtube to pick us five of the best...

Tradition says the sound of the first cuckoo is the sign that spring is arriving. When I was little it was more the smell of cut grass for the first time at the cricket field where my dad ran the club. But now the sure sign that summer is finally on its way is the Thursday night when you sit up and watch the start of the action from Augusta.

If you didn't already love golf, watching The Masters would drag you in and make you hopelessly enchanted by the sport. Maybe it's the beautiful backdrop, the sumptuous colour of the flowers around Augusta National, the sound of birdsong, punctuated by the swish of a club. But mostly it's the compelling drama that gets played out on that stage - the fascinating fight of mind over matter watching top players deal with the challenge of the course and its lightening fast greens, while trying to handle the pressure to succeed.

Those greens. Downhill putts that roll, and roll, and roll some more. Peter Alliss once described them as "like putting down the bonnet of a car and trying to get the ball to stop an inch before it falls on to the bumper." 

Here are my top five Masters memories. Will the 2013 tournament serve up some similarly classic moments? You couldn't bet against it. 

Jack Nicklaus in 1986
This was the one that got me hooked on the Masters. Nicklaus, The Golden Bear, aged 46 and so far off the pace that even when he birdied the 9th nobody really noticed. But then came the greatest finish the Masters had produced as he took just 30 to play the final nine holes. An eagle at the 15th set up his challenge, and by the time he rolled in a putt on 17 to take the outright lead it was clear that history was happening. A compelling performance by the man who still holds the most Majors - and is still the oldest to wear the Green Jacket.

The Bet: In 2012 Fred Couples led after two rounds at the age of 52 - he's 120.0119/1 to be the first round leader this time.

Poulter's hole-in-one at the 16th in 2008
I love Ian Poulter's story. I'd love him to win at Augusta, just to put a final chapter on the tale of a boy who sold Mars bars and collected balls on a public driving range but found time to practise so hard he became one of the top players in the World. I've walked the course behind him at The Open and at Ryder Cups and I love his energy and his competitive instinct - even if the explosive temperament does seem to cost him when it comes to trying to win big tournaments for himself instead of a team. This was one of those moments where you are settled on the sofa, watching the action unfold, and then suddenly sit up and go "wow".

The Bet: It's 1.9620/21 there will be a hole-in-one at some time in this year's tournament. 

The last Englishman to win, Nick Faldo in 1996
Golfing history has this down as the year Greg Norman crumbled, losing a six shot lead as the nerves bit deeper. I remember it as the year Faldo won, watching with pride as a home player showed guts and grinding determination to take his chance for a third Green Jacket. Faldo was a winner when winning wasn't fashionable for Brits. He was unpopular for his single-minded commitment and sometimes miserable demeanour, but I loved his determination to be the best. 

The Bet: Choose from Justin Rose, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter or David Lynn as the Top English player this year. 

Tiger announces himself to the world in 1997
A year after The Great White Shark got eaten alive by Augusta National, along came a slimly built American kid called Tiger Woods. We got so used to him winning everything for years after that it's hard to put into context just how dramatic was his first Major. At 21 it seemed ludicrous that he was the pre-tournament favourite, all the more so when he was four over after his first nine holes. But then he shot 30 for the back nine and we all sat up. It was his driving distances that we'd barely seen before - his average for the four days was 323 yards. Nine shots ahead of the field on Sunday morning, the last day wasn't even a contest but the procession was brilliant viewing as the young Tiger played stunning shot after stunning shot to wrap up the title.

The Bet: Is Tiger back to his best? He's 5.49/2 favourite to be this year's winner. 

McIlory's meltdown
Oh dear. This was car crash TV, but you just had to sit and watch, even at times you felt like hiding behind the sofa. Rory McIlroy, a smiling, boyish 21-year-old, played three days of stunning golf to take a four shot lead into Sunday. Half way round he still led by one - and then came the hook that bounced off a tree into some cabins, a recovery that hit another tree, and a triple-bogey seven at the tenth. Hold yourself together, and he did with two shots to the 11th green, only for a three putt. By the time he'd four-putted on the 12th it was all over, and the drive into Rae's Creek on the 13th just piled up the agony. Sport hurts. Maybe you can't be physically injured playing golf, but this was mental torture.

The Bet: Is this the year McIlroy puts that misery behind him? He's 11.010/1 second favourite. http://www.betfair.com/exchange/golf/market?id=1.107077980

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US Masters Betting: Rose and Westwood to fight out Top European honours

"I will be very surprised if the Englishman (Justin Rose) doesn’t finish in the top 10 this week and therefore he has to be a contender in this market."

Back Justin Rose @ 7.413/2

There's a plethora of side markets to get involved in at this week's US Masters, and here Mike Norman tells us who he believes are the best bets in the Top European market...

It's been 14 long years since a European golfer donned the famous Green Jacket, and on recent evidence it will take a big effort for one to win the first Major of the season come Sunday evening.

I've explained in more detail here as to why I believe the Europeans are worth opposing at this week's US Masters. It's nothing to do with them becoming bad players overnight, more the fact that the rest of the world are fighting back so to speak. And sure, some Europeans are bound to play well at Augusta during the course of the four competition days.

But the beauty of having a wager in the Top European market is that it doesn't matter where your selection finishes, as long as he's above everyone else from the same continent then you're a winner.

A total of 28 Europeans will tee off on Thursday, and although at least 20 of them have the ability to contend if at their very best, realistically we should be concentrating on the top echelons of the market for the most likely winner.

Not surprisingly Rory McIlroy heads the market at 5.49/2 to back, but despite a decent finish (and it was no more than decent given the strength of the field) at the Texas Open last week it seems the young Ulsterman has a lot to prove.

Since becoming the world number one at the end of last year McIlroy has had a lot to deal with. He has changed his equipment, has signed a mega-bucks sponsorship deal with Nike (and with that surely comes added pressure to succeed), and his private life is under more scrutiny than ever before. It seems in the early part of the season all this has had an affect on his game, and even last week his short game looked way off the standard required to contend at Augusta. He's not for me.

In total contrast to Rory, Justin Rose doesn't have a single question mark hanging above his head going into this week. He rarely puts in a bad performance these days, and his excellent second place finish at Bay Hill last time was his fifth runner-up spot in a big event since winning the WGC Cadillac Championship 13 months ago.

Rose's Masters record isn't too shabby either, recording four top-20 finishes in the last five years including a fifth place finish in 2008 and a top-10 finish last year.

In fact Rose ticks all the right boxes if you're looking for an Outright Winner (for which he is 22.021/1 to back) never mind someone to finish as the Top European. I do think a few Americans and South Africans hold just as strong claims as Rose to win however, and can be backed at better odds, but I will be very surprised if the Englishman doesn't finish in the top 10 this week and therefore he has to be a contender in this market at 7.413/2.

You can make a case for a number of star Europeans playing well this week - should Luke Donald be as big as 12.5n/a (and 44.043/1 to win outright) on the back of a relatively poor start to the season for example?

And should we dismiss Ian Poulter (18.017/1) - who has never missed a cut at Augusta - and last year's third Peter Hanson (20.019/1) lightly?

And what about Sergio Garcia (15.014/1), a back-to-form Henrik Stenson (23.022/1), and last week's impressive winner Martin Laird (40.039/1)? All can be top European on their day, but my other selection is going to be an old favourite of mine.

Lee Westwood has slipped down the world rankings in the last year, and he's not being talked up as much as he has at recent US Masters. Hopefully that will all play in to Westwood's hands because there's no doubt in my mind that the pressure does get to him from time to time.

True, Westwood is a dreadful putter, but I've said it before and I'll say it again; while his tee-to-green game is so good all it will take for him to win one of these events is an above average week with the flat stick. When you consider how many short putts he missed last year, yet he still finished in a tie for third just two shots off the winner, then you start to struggle to find a way to dismiss him.

And there was evidence in Houston a fortnight ago that his putting is much better, especially during the third round where he rolled in countless 10-footers.

Yes, he did miss some short ones too, but doesn't he always - you just accept (through gritted teeth admittedly) that with Westwood he'll always miss a short one from time to time. But he loves Augusta having finished second and third here in the last three years, and he could easily put up another strong challenge this week, especially in this market at odds of 9.89/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Justin Rose @ 7.413/2
Back Lee Westwood @ 9.89/1

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US Masters Betting: Is it time to back resurgent Woods for the Masters?

"12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time."

After a stunning victory at Doral, Tiger Woods is all the rage with punters to land a fifth US Masters title next month. The odds are falling fast, but Paul Krishnamurty argues there's still plenty of way to go...

Its that special time of the punting year again, and I don't just mean the Cheltenham Festival. With less than a month before the season's first major, serious golf punters are trying to get ahead of the game by grabbing the early US Masters value. There is always trading mileage in predicting which way the market will move about each player as interest heightens.

Normally that would involve finding big-priced candidates likely to be gambled down, especially if they're fancied to perform well in the few events before Augusta. This time, however, the market dynamics may well result in most of the field drifting out as confidence builds behind the favourite.

Numerous thoughts whizzed around my brain over the weekend, watching Tiger Woods win his 17th WGC title. First, there was the most obvious cliche that form is temporary while class is permanent. On a more personal note, it was hard not to berate myself for not sticking to my own golden rules. Last year I'd successfully followed a plan to ignore Tiger outside his favourite events. Last month I abandoned it with disastrous effect at his second home, Torrey Pines. Having missed that boat, I couldn't bring myself to back him at Doral, even at tempting double-figure odds.

Then on Friday afternoon, ahead of the second round, I had a conversation with my esteemed colleague Steve Rawlings about the merits of his in-running bet on Tiger. I disagreed with him, citing numerous failures in contention from the post-scandal Tiger. Moreover, I just couldn't get poor performances at the World Matchplay, Abu Dhabi and Honda Classic out of my head. Needless to say, Steve was spectacularly right and I was wrong!

Of course, rather than cry over spilt milk, the plan must be to move forward and learn the lesson. I felt Tiger's performance at Doral may well have been his best and was certainly his most significant display since his personal life and career unravelled in 2009. He looked his old self, without weaknesses in any department.  Clearly at the very least the rules of last season should still apply.

Therefore, the next step is to restate which those favoured tracks and events are. Augusta must be on the shortlist, although in fairness I wouldn't bracket it with Torrey Pines, Firestone or St Andrews as courses where a Woods playing at 75% of his best is basically unbeatable. After all, if that were the case, he would have won there more recently than 2005. Nevertheless Tiger's Masters record is pretty awesome, winning four times and registering ten top-five finishes. Significantly, he didn't need to be anywhere near his best to make the top-six in every renewal between 2006 and 2011.

One course which must be listed alongside the aforementioned of ideal layouts is the one place where we'll see him before now and the Masters. Even last year, despite struggling to find form most weeks, Tiger landed a seventh title at Bay Hill, finishing seven shots ahead of third place. On all that historical evidence and last week's Doral form, Woods must be considered a good thing for next week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

If and when he wins an eighth title there, expect a further plunge on Tiger's odds for Augusta. In recent days, his Masters odds have shortened from 10.09/1 to 6.411/2 and there is plenty of way to go. 12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time. 

Recommended Bet (Back to Lay)

US Masters

Back Tiger Woods @ 6.411/2 to win the US Masters 

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The Omega European Masters: Wiesberger value to make it three, says The Punter

“Berndt Wiesberger is an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he’s far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.”

Flushed with success after Paul Lawrie's win in Scotland, Steve takes a look at this week's European Tour action from Switzerland. Could our man pick back-to-back winners on the Race to Dubai?

Tournament History
With an illustrious list of champions that includes Bob Charles, Nick Price, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros (three times), José María Olazábal, Sergio Garcia, Ernie Els, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, to name but a few, the Omega European Masters has a rich history dating right back to 1923.

It's been a European Tour event since 1972 and it's a bit disappointing to see a relatively weak field this week, thanks to its current slot in the schedule - opposite the second PGA Tour playoff event, the Deutsche Bank Championship, which starts on Friday. The tournament has been co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour since 2009.

Venue
Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland

Course Details
Par 71, 6822 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 70.55

Winding its way through the beautiful mountains of Crans Montana, Crans-sur-Sierre is a visually stunning venue. At way below 7,000 yards, it's very short by modern standards and the last three winners have all achieved a total of at least 20 under-par.

With small upturned-saucer like greens, accuracy is most certainly the key attribute and Greens In Regulation and Scrambling are the two main stats to concentrate on. Three of the last four winners ranked 1st or 2nd for GIR and the three winners between 2007 and 2009 all topped the Scrambling stats.

Although a neat and tidy short game is what usually gets the job done here, the longer hitters can take advantage of the scoring holes. The par five opening hole, measuring just 540 yards, always ranks the easiest on the course, holes 6 and 7 are drivable par fours and the back-to-back par fives, 14 and 15, also offer great birdie/eagle chances.

Useful Sites
Tournament Site
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days - 10.30am and 3.30pm on Thursday and Friday and 12pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Thomas Bjorn -20
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -21
2009 - Alexander Noren - 20
2008 - Jean-Francois Lucquin -13 (playoff)
2007 - Brett Rumford -16 (playoff)

Is there an identikit winner?
As mentioned, accurate iron-play and good scrambling pay dividends - the players will be hitting an awful lot of wedges into the greens this week, setting up plenty of birdie chances so a great short game is key but its also worth noting that in-form players have fared well in recent years too.

Last year's winner, Thomas Bjorn had won the Johnnie Walker Championship seven days earlier and Edoardo Molinari finished second in 2010 after winning in Scotland the week before. And both Bjorn and Miguel Angel Jimenez in 2010 were winning their third event of the year.

In-Play Tactics
A fast start is important at Crans. Its 14 years since any winner was worse than five strokes off the lead after day one or three back at halfway, so it makes sense to concentrate on the front of the leaderboard from early on.

The harder holes come in three sets of three - the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, the 11th, 12th, and 13th and the final three. If your pick has hit the front after playing the reachable par five pair of 14 and 15, it might make sense to take some profit before they encounter the long par 3 16th, which always ranks the toughest hole on the course.

Market Leaders
Favourite Peter Hanson makes very little appeal. His 7th placed finish at the US PGA Championship last time out was impressive but he has no course form to speak of and it's now two years since his last success.

Last week's winner Paul Lawrie is bidding to emulate Bjorn of last year and achieve the unique Qatar Masters, Johnnie Walker Championship and Omega European Masters treble. That really would be quite bizarre and I can't see him doing it. His form at Crans isn't great, although he did finish second ten years ago, and he's often a slow starter, something that will really hamper him here. I imagine he's celebrated his latest success and that won't help either.

Former winners Bjorn and Alex Noren are both respected but both are a shade short for my liking and I liked Matteo Manassero at first glance but he also looks a bit short given his poor form of late.

Selections
Nobody in the field has a more solid bank of course form than 2010 winner Miguel Angel Jimenez and he looked a more than fair price at 36.035/1. He hasn't had the greatest of seasons but he turned the corner in no uncertain terms at last month's Open Championship, where he finished in the top-ten - ranking 1st for putting. Next time out, he finished 27th at the US PGA Championship, where he ranked 4th for both Driving Accuracy and GIR and 16th for putting. A missed cut at Gleneagles last week wasn't ideal but was he only there to support his Ryder Cup captain anyway?

Miguel will be buoyed by last week's announcement that he's Olazábal's fourth and final vice-captain at the fast-approaching Ryder Cup and given he's finished inside the top-ten in each of the last four years here, it would be no surprise whatsoever if he featured again this time around.

As previously mentioned, the last two winners were winning their third event of the season when they found success here; could lightening strike for a third time? Considering he was beaten in a playoff there 12 months ago, I was quite surprised that Austria's Berndt Wiesberger wasn't in the field at last week's Johnnie Walker Championship and I did wonder if there might have been a slight problem with the recent Austrian Open winner. It seems not, he was actually acclimatising himself well for this week's event, winning the Zurich Open pro-am with two rounds of 67.

Berndt missed the cut here on his only appearance but that came off the back of that disappointing playoff defeat last year and I'm happy to dismiss it. The Austrians an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he's far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.

Argentines often prosper at mountain venues and I've decided to make a small play on the only two in the field this week. Ricardo Gonzalez won this event in 2001 and he'd love to emulate his fellow countryman Eduardo Romero and win it twice.

Tano Goya zipped over to Switzerland after missing the cut in Scotland last week and very nearly won. A triple-bogey at the 15th hole in the second and final round of the Zurich Open stopped him in his tracks but he still finished second to Wiesberger.

Selections:
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 36.035/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 60.059/1
Ricardo Gonzalez @ 200.0199/1
Tano Goya @ 400.0399/1

The week's other event, the Deutsche Bank Championship doesn't start until Friday but I'll be back tonight or early tomorrow with a preview.

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Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Djokovic faces test as Berd takes off

Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

Sean Calvert explains why he believes Andy Murray's conqueror can cause the world number one a few problems in today's semi-final. Meanwhile, Rafa should win comfortably against Gilles Simon...

Friday was another good day at the Monte Carlo Masters after a tough start to the week, as both of the wagers I suggested were winners.

Andy Murray's match went the way I predicted - to a decider - and it was Tomas Berdych who took a deserved win after being the more forceful of the two players on the day.

It was one of those frustrating displays from Murray, who forced Sky commentator, Barry Millns, into several apologies as the expletives flew with regularity from the Scot's mouth in front of a stern faced Ivan Lendl.

And Gilles Simon's straight sets win over a misfiring Jo-Wilfried Tsonga brought further reward to those who were on the 2.56/4 available on Simon pre-match.

Saturday is semi-finals day and first up is Novak Djokovic versus Berdych and I think if there is ever a time at the moment to take the world number one on it could be now.

His performance against Robin Haase on Friday was patchy and he admitted that "it's tough to play tennis with the way I feel" after hearing of the passing of his grandfather a few days ago.

The other view is that he'll want to go on and win this event and dedicate it to his relative, so he may well be putting everything into the next couple of days.

So, there's his emotional state to consider as well as the usual form and statistics, which tell us that Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

I've always thought that Berdych should be a real contender on clay, but it's hard to believe in him completely with his often erratic and frustrating displays.

He certainly has it in him to beat Djokovic today and the 4.1n/a is a tempting price based on the Czech's best form and the emotional question mark over Nole.

The Berdman was excellent against Murray, but I don't trust him to produce back-to-back performances and consequently I think the best play in this one is to lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6.

The other bet to consider in my view is the 4.3100/30 about Djokovic taking this one by two sets to one, as I think the Serb will have the odd dip and Berdych should be able to cash in - at least long enough to take a set.

The other semi-final features Rafa Nadal taking on Gilles Simon for the sixth time, with Rafa leading 4-1 overall and this will also be their first meeting on clay.

This should be pretty much a perfect match-up for Rafa, who won't be coughing up anywhere near as many unforced errors as Tsonga did against Simon on Friday.

The Frenchman is going to have to play a much more aggressive game than he's comfortable with to have a chance today, although Nadal hasn't been at his best this week.

Rafa is around 1.071/14 to win, which is far too short considering the knees are still troubling him and the only bet I would consider in this is taking Simon on the handicap with a 5.5 games start at around 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet
Lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6

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Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Djokovic can edge Nadal in dream final

The bet that appeals most is in the total games market where the mark is 22.5 games. I will be on overs at around 2.021/1.

Sean Calvert followers prospered on Saturday so can our man provide more Monte Carlo moolah as the King of Clay meets the world number one in Sunday's final?

It was another good day at the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday, as my recommended bet and my other advice were successful on semi finals day.

As soon as Tomas Berdych took the first set against Novak Djokovic we were in the money and hopefully a few were on the 2-1 Djokovic win and Gilles Simon +5.5 on the handicap as well.

So, Sunday brings the final that most would have wanted to see, which is Djokovic and Rafa Nadal facing off for the first time on clay since Rome last year.

Nole won that day and I must say that I'm slightly surprised that the market has Rafa as the 1.784/5 favourite for this one.

Neither player has been at their best in this tournament so far - Djokovic understandably so in the circumstances - but the world number one has still won their last seven matches on the bounce and should probably be the favourite in my eyes.

I would imagine that Nole's tactics of hammering the Nadal two-handed backhand and hitting as hard as he can to the Spaniard's forehand to open up the weaker backhand wing will be the same today and unless Nadal goes for his shots a bit more then the result should be the same. In theory.

Rafa needs to serve at his US Open 2010 best and vary his play more than he has done in their recent meetings to take the win today and I'm not sure he's at that level just at the moment.

He still seems to be troubled by his knees and I certainly won't be touching the 1.784/5 about a Nadal win at the outset.

Of course, there are still question marks lingering over Djokovic after what has doubtless been a tough week for him on and off the court and with neither player at their peak I think the tactic in this one is to look at the alternative markets to the straight match odds.

The one that appeals most to me today is the total games market where the mark is 22.5 games and I will be on the overs at around 2.021/1.

I'm expecting highs and lows from both players this afternoon - particularly Djokovic - and I have a feeling that this one will go to a decider.

A riskier play would be to back Djokovic 2-1 at around 4.94/1 and trade in-play from there, but I'll be baking the overs and hoping that the Monte Carlo crowd will be treated to a three set classic.

Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games at 2.021/1

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The Punter's US Masters De-Brief: Blubbing Bubba bags a biggy

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bubba gets a hug from Ben Crane after his emotional win

“The back-nine is where you make your score. Once through the tricky 12th birdie opportunities are there on almost every hole. The 17th and 18th are tough but not impossible and the last two winners have both made four straight birdies on the back nine.”

Steve looks back on yet another fantastic Masters tournament. What lessons have we learnt for next year?

It really is quite remarkable how year after year this event produces so much drama and this time around, three shots grabbed the headlines.

First there was Louis Oosthuizen's second to the par five 2nd, which incredibly found the bottom of the cup to propel the South African to the top of the leaderboard. Then there was Phil Mickelson's horror tee-shot on four that ricocheted unluckily off the grandstand and into a virtually unplayable spot to cost him his chance of a fourth Green Jacket. And finally there was a magic moment from Bubba Watson on the second extra hole. Presumable affected by just missing a ten-footer for the title, Bubba smacked his tee-shot on the 10th hole deep into the trees, right of the fairway, from where he hit a 50-yard hook, setting up a birdie opportunity. As it transpired, Oosty failed to make par and Bubba was able to two-putt for the title.

My Bets
They say fortune favours the brave. Well I was brave last night and ill-fortune favoured me. With a substantial wager on Lefty from the start, after much deliberation, my plan was to lay back my stakes and a wee bit more should he go odds on and had Oosthuizen not made that miraculous albatross, he would have done.

With a five-footer for par on the 1st hole, Phil was around [2.3] when Oosty struck. Had the South African not made his astonishing two, and once Phil had safely made the par on the 1st and then found the fairway on the 2nd, he almost certainly would have gone odds on.

And then there were the horrors of the 4th hole. Yes he hit a terrible shot but boy was he unlucky with the outcome. Still, I've no regrets, a couple of freak occurrences robbed me of a profitable tournament but I wouldn't do anything differently given the same set of circumstances. I think it was just bad, bad luck.

Observations and lessons for next year

You need a good start.
Phil Mickelson didn't just lose the event on the 4th hole yesterday, he lost it on Thursday. A fast start at the Masters is imperative. Mistakes will always happen and you need a good start. A cushion if you like. The first four names on the day one leaderboard were Lee Westwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Peter Hanson and Bubba Watson. Mickelson's opening round of 74 left him a mountain to climb.

Who to back in 2013?
Nobody has ever won the Masters having made a triple-bogey, yet Lefty very nearly pulled it off having made two! Add to that his very poor start and it's quite incredible how close he came to winning. Nobody prepares for, or plays, Augusta National better than Phil Mickelson and although the years are ticking by, I still think he has at least one more victory in him.

Lefty apart, as I just think he's so well suited to the test, it may be worth opposing those in the mix this year. Eight players hit the front on day four in 2011 and none of those eight, despite many of them being quite well fancied, featured this year. It could just be a coincidence or there could be something in it. Could players that figure one year, expect too much of themselves, and therefore heap too much pressure on themselves, the following year?

Course experience is vital
With three straight missed cuts, Louis Oosthuizen hardly had course form to boast but he does have the game for Augusta. He's far from the first to suddenly get it and I wouldn't give up on someone just because their previous course form is poor - providing they have the right game.

What skills are needed to win the Green Jacket?
Length is a big advantage - Louis ranked 2nd for Driving Distance and Bubba 4th. And Westwood, Hanson and Mickelson can get it out there too.

Scoring on the par fives is vital. It's all about hanging on elsewhere and making hay at the long holes but yet again, the most important stat is putting...

Bubba is an unusual winner, in that he didn't rank very highly with the putter this week. In fact, his poor performance with the flat-stick when I backed him last time out at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was the only reason I didn't back him here - just to add to my frustrations! Mickelson was the best putter on the week but Hanson and Oosthuizen weren't far behind him, ranking 3rd and 5th respectfully.

In-running angle
The back-nine is where you make your score. Once through the tricky 12th, birdie opportunities are there on almost every hole. The 17th and 18th are tough but not impossible and the last two winners have both made four straight birdies on the back nine. And both may have felt their chance had gone when they did.

Adam Scott looked the winner last year until Charl Schwartzel followed a frustrating run of pars with birdies at each of the last four holes. This time around, Bubba made four off the bat after bogeying the 12th. I just wonder if both players had thought their chances of glory may have passed and as a result they relaxed slightly.

Hole-in-one
Geoff Ogilvy very nearly aced the 16th yesterday. Bo Van Pelt and Adam Scott did. I highlighted this angle before the off and no doubt I shall be doing so again next year.

I'm sure there are plenty of other little snippets and angles in and if anyone has their own, please feel free to comment. Paul gave us a cracker on this year's preview when he posted that every winner, apart from Tiger Woods in 1996, has made the cut the year before they won since Fuzzy Zoeller won here on debut in 1979 - though Louis came very close to blowing that one!

Getting over the Masters hangover isn't going to be too hard this week, we've a pair of cracking events kicking off on Thursday - the Maybank Malaysian Open on the Race to Dubai and the RBC Heritage on the PGA Tour. I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday with previews for each.

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls...

What will it take to win the year's first major? Our man takes a look at past results and key trends at Augusta National and he also gives the reasoning behind his eight selections......

It's live on TV and it'll make for a pleasant aperitif before the main event but Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, advises caution and the application of a pin! Read his thoughts on Wednesday's Par Three Contest here......

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US Masters Tips: Outright and two-ball bets for the final day

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Bubba come from off the pace to win?

"Bubba Watson strikes me as being the heir to Mickelson in many respects and it's easy to imagine him donning the Green Jacket one day."

There's a whole host of drama to come at Augusta and Paul Krishnamurty has picked out a variety of ways to keep you that little bit more interested in the Augusta action with these four bets...

Golf's most famous in-running trend states that the Masters winner will come from the final group and if that golden rule delivers for the 20th time in 22 renewals, Peter Hanson or Phil Mickelson will never forget their magnificent third round performances that set up the chance. On a quite extraordinary day that also saw many stars including Rory McIlroy humbled by this famous old course, Hanson and Mickelson tore up Augusta's back-nine with rounds of 65 and 66 respectively.

Everything looks perfectly set up for Mickelson to land his fourth Masters title in nine years. One can only marvel at this ultimate course specialist's performance over the past two days to recover from a dire first round position. While he knows the Augusta final day drill inside out, Hanson has never experienced anything like this. Without taking anything away from his achievements so far, victory for the hardly prolific Swede would represent a huge shock.

Mickelson's chance, however, is reflected by odds of just http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103455189&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013 [2.72] so value-hunters will be looking towards the chasing pack. Former Open champ Louis Oosthuizen also played well again yesterday and is close enough from two off the pace, while recent dual winner Hunter Mahan is bound to be a popular pick, especially given his good record from off the pace.

Rather than any of those solid candidates though, I'm going for a man who's been there or thereabouts all week without ever really catching fire. Bubba Watson strikes me as being the heir to Mickelson in many respects and it's easy to imagine him donning the Green Jacket one day. He has the same mix of power, waywardness and spectacular talent that makes Augusta the ideal venue. Critics will point to Watson's flop when taking the final day lead into the WGC event at Doral last month, but from three shots back, the pressure is off this time. Moreover at [10.0], there is plenty of trading value. My plan is to back at [10.0], then lay if he shortens to [3.0].

Recommended Bet
5u Bubba Watson @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [3.0]

Two-balls
6u Tiger Woods @ [1.69] (vs Singh) (Starts 16.30)
Backing Tiger and opposing Vijay paid off yesterday and I see no reason to abandon the strategy. Besides the fact these two old rivals are leagues apart nowadays, Tiger has saved face from bad positions time and again over the years, whilst Singh is totally unsuited to a drying Augusta.

4u Webb Simpson @ [2.16] (vs Garcia) (Starts 17.40)
Prone to moodswings and losing confidence, Sergio Garcia has never been one to back when struggling off the pace on Sunday and yesterday's struggle is unlikely to have improved his mood. In contrast, his opponent is making a good fist of his Augusta debut. The consistent and reliable Webb Simpson will be pleased to be placed in the top-20 after just three rounds on a course that penalises debutants and it would be no surprise to see him move further forward today.

6u Phil Mickelson @ [1.61] (vs Hanson) (Starts 19.40)
The arguments for Mickelson and against Hanson are laid out above and given my doubts about the latter, it makes more sense to take [1.61] about Phil just to win their two-ball, compared to [2.72] from one behind Hanson in the outright market, not to mention all the other chasers.

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls...

Phil Mickelson is a [2.72] shot to win the Masters for a fourth time, ahead of third round leader Peter Hanson and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen....

An intriguing Masters leaderboard awaits us this morning with any one of 30 players in with a chance of winning the tournament. Saturday is traditionally classed as moving day so who does Paul Krishnamurty expect to be rising up the...

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Latest Masters Odds: Big Phil heads betting before final round

US Masters / Joe Dyer / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson enjoys himself on moving day

"Mickelson put in a real show of class on 'moving day', shooting six under on the back nine after parring the first nine holes to launch himself up the leaderboard to second place."

Phil Mickelson is a [2.72] shot to win the Masters for a fourth time, ahead of third round leader Peter Hanson and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen.

Phil Mickelson is [2.72] on Betfair to make it Masters win no.4 with a tournament victory at Augusta tonight.

The pre-tournament third favourite put in a real show of class on 'moving day', shooting six under on the back nine after parring the first nine holes to launch himself up the leaderboard to second place.

He stands one shot back from Sweden's Peter Hanson - the 2010 Ryder Cup performer hitting a 65 to head the field at -9. Hanson is [5.2] to still be top of the pile at the conclusion of tonight's action.

If fending off Mickelson wasn't daunting enough, Hanson will also have to repel the challenge of former Open champion Louis Oosthuizen. Two shots off the lead, the South African can be backed at [6.8] to add the Masters to his collection of Majors won.

Big-hitting Bubba Watson has the tools to go very low at Augusta and the market clearly thinks the three shots separating him from Hanson are not insurmountable. Watson is [10.0] to win the 2012 Masters.

Fellow American Matt Kuchar is one shot back of Watson and trades at [20.0], one tick shorter than Lee Westwood. The first round leader has stalled since his wonderful oening round and sits on -4, tied for sixth place with Hunter Mahan ([27.0]), Padraig Harrington ([36.0]) and surprise package Henrik Stenson (44.0]).

The gap beyond looks too big and no other player trades at under [100.0].

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls...

There's a whole host of drama to come at Augusta and Paul Krishnamurty has picked out a variety of ways to keep you that little bit more interested in the Augusta action with these four bets......

An intriguing Masters leaderboard awaits us this morning with any one of 30 players in with a chance of winning the tournament. Saturday is traditionally classed as moving day so who does Paul Krishnamurty expect to be rising up the...

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Masters Tips: Three-ball bets for the opening day in Augusta

US Masters / Dan Geraghty / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Does Charl offer first day value?

"Angel Cabrera [4.3] has seen a flood of support following his early showing at the Shell Houston Open (opened with a 65), but the former Masters champion is really up against it on day one playing with wonder boy Rory McIlroy and the mercurial Bubba Watson."

Can Charl get his Masters defence off to a strong start? Will Louis produce the goods at Augusta? Does Rickie have a chance against Rose and Immelman? Is Cabrera going to find either Rory or Bubba too strong? For Dan Geraghty the answer to all of the above is yes!

There is something of a bandwagon forming for Keegan Bradley, his price has been steadily contracting for weeks now. He's certainly a player with a lot of nerve and a bright future but I'm surprised he is available at the same price in his three-ball as defending champion Charl Schwartzel [2.14]. This is Bradley's debut at Augusta, Charl's extra experience will be hard to match on day one. No disrespect to amateur Kelly Kraft (the third member of the three ball) but this one looks a match.

Charl's great friend Louis Oosthuizen [2.86] suffered an unfortunate collapse on Sunday last week when leading the Shell Houston Open, however, he bounced back well towards the end of his round to finish solo third. That event is seen as a great warm-up for Augusta, it's a fairly similar test so I'm happy to overlook Oosthuizen's three missed Augusta cuts. He's clearly coming into this week in good form and it's his second Masters as a Major champion. His playing partners are Mark Wilson (who has a disappointing record in Majors) and Graeme McDowell who has also missed his last two cuts at the Masters.

I really like the look of Rickie Fowler's price [3.3] in his day one three ball. He played well without scoring great in Houston last time out, this was backed up by this quote from him afterwards "Embarrassing score on the weekend but my main goal this week was to get ready for Augusta... didn't show but I feel really good about my game". Fowler finished 38th on debut last year, look for him to improve on that this time around. He has a tough grouping for the first two days, with past champion Trevor Immelman and Justin Rose, but the price is right!

Angel Cabrera [4.3] has seen a flood of support following his early showing at the Shell Houston Open (opened with a 65), but the former Masters champion is really up against it on day one playing with wonder boy Rory McIlroy and the mercurial Bubba Watson, who has been in the top 20 on every single start this season (seven appearances). It's hard to see him finishing the day on top and is worth a lay at [4.3].

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Charl Schwartzel @ [2.1]
2pts Back Louis Oosthuizen @ [2.86]
1pt Back Rickie Fowler @ [3.3]
1pt Lay Angel Cabrera @ [4.3]

*All the above bets are available in-play on betfair

Season Profit / Loss: -14.22

*Follow me on twitter @dangeraghty10

From Tea Olive to Holly - all the holes at Augusta rated for you...

Rory McIlroy tees off alongside the man who got the best view of his 2011 meltdown at Augusta. The in-form Irishman shouldn't be fazed but, whether Ralph Ellis is backing him to claim the Green Jacket, is another matter......

Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?...

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Masters 2012: Rory can beat his demons but Englishman appeal

US Masters / Ralph Ellis / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Rory be squeezed out by the likes of Donald and Westwood?

"If you’re feeling patriotic you can back an English winner at between [4.0] and [6.8] in the Winning Nationality market."

Rory McIlroy tees off alongside the man who got the best view of his 2011 meltdown at Augusta. The in-form Irishman shouldn't be fazed but, whether Ralph Ellis is backing him to claim the Green Jacket, is another matter...

If there's one thing worse than having a nightmare day on a golf course, it's playing with somebody who's having a nightmare day. There are only so many times you can mutter "bad luck" to them when another tee-shot curls its way into the trees, or a two-foot putt lips the hole and runs six feet down the slope.

If you're playing well yourself there's a danger you start to feel guilty at your own good shots. And even if you are Mr Ruthless, the disruption to the rhythm of the game inevitably takes its toll on your score too.

Yet while everybody focused last year on Rory McIlroy's meltdown at The Masters, few showed much sympathy for his playing partner Angel Cabrera as they went round Amen Corner together and the young Northern Ireland star fell apart. Maybe the coverage was different in Argentina, but back here we barely noticed the burly guy with the ringside view of arguably the most spectacular collapse in golfing history. The second story was that Tiger Woods almost made a challenge. The fact that Charl Schwartzel won was almost an afterthought.

Yet Cabrera was just as badly affected. Don't forget the reason he was in the final pairing with McIlroy was because at the start of that fateful Sunday he was the closest contender, just four shots behind the lead. And at one point the Argentinian even shared top spot before he too couldn't sustain the pace and he finished up seventh.

It's a rich twist of fate that when McIlroy begins his 2012 Masters at 06:42 our time tomorrow afternoon, he'll have Cabrera alongside him again, together with Bubba Watson. (Rory, incidentally, is [2.1] favourite to win the three ball). If you'd wanted a test of how he would handle his Augusta demons, it couldn't have been organised any more fiendishly than if a red guy with a tail and a pitchfork had turned up to make the draw. Not only does he have to wait all day to start, he then gets to meet the man who shared his agony.

The hope for McIlroy is that he has said and done all the right things in the run up to this Masters, and is in magnificent form. He looks relaxed, and his putting has improved beyond recognition thanks to his work with Dave Stockton. Whether that makes him worth backing at [8.0] to win the tournament is another matter.

I'm more inclined to look at the claims of Luke Donald, who doesn't get the same huge publicity but has quietly worked his way back to the top of the world rankings. Prices of [4.5] for a top five finish and [17.0] to win the Green Jacket both look attractive. Lee Westwood, at [5.7] and [23.0], offers value too. If you're feeling patriotic you can back an English winner - which also gives you the option of Justin Rose who is in good form - at between [4.0] and [6.8] in the Winning Nationality market.

Five things you might not know about Angel Cabrera

1. Born September 1969 in an impoverished part of Cordoba, Argentina, he was three years old when his handyman father Miguel split from his mother who worked as a maid, and he was left in the care of Miguel's mother.

2. He started caddying at the age of ten at the Cordoba Country Club as a way of helping put some food on the family table, and then learned to play golf by competing for money against the other caddies.

3. He has two sons who are both excellent golfers - the oldest, Federico, caddied for him at last year's Masters and was also on his bag when he won the Cordoba Open in Argentina.

4. He's known as 'El Pato', the duck - a reference to his huge feet which leave him walking with a waddle like gait (and not Chris Waddle!).

5. He used to smoke heavily and said that while others had a sports psychologist, he had a packet of Marlboros. He gave up three years ago and now chews gum instead.

From Tea Olive to Holly - all the holes at Augusta rated for you...

Can Charl get his Masters defence off to a strong start? Will Louis produce the goods at Augusta? Does Rickie have a chance against Rose and Immelman? Is Cabrera going to find either Rory or Bubba too strong? For Dan...

Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?...

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US Masters Tips: Augusta lover Scott the top Aussie bet

US Masters / Romilly Evans / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Adam Scott, pictured during practice this week, loves Augusta

"If there is to be a surprise, it could come from John Senden (an attractive [10.0] to back) whose distance control should allow him to find the right shelves of these notorious greens."

Adam Scott gets good vibes from Augusta and that's giving Romily Evans good vibes as he studies the Top Australian market for the 2012 Masters

Greg Norman, for so long the standard-bearer of Australian golf, always came up a whisker shy of Masters glory. And at first glance the generation which followed him appears similarly doomed. Just take last year at Augusta where Adam Scott, Jason Day and Geoff Ogilvy all came up agonisingly short in the final analysis.

Scott and Day played together in that final round and inspired each other to the giddy heights of second place. Trouble was: they ran into the best closing finish in Masters history from Charl Schwartzel, who made birdie on the final four holes. No crime there.

More worrying, perhaps, is their combined lack of recent form. Day hasn't been better than 20th in any of his stateside outings this season, while Scott has only played nine competitive rounds and has taken the last three weeks off. Still, the latter move was a premeditated attempt by Scott to practice and peak for the Masters, following the lead of Rory McIlroy.

It's a tournament which offers the 31-year-old his best chance of a major. And Scott himself concurs: "Every time I walk out on the course, I feel I can shoot a good score no matter how I'm hitting it."

Those are bold words but they were adeptly backed up in 2011 when for the first time, he truly looked comfortable on the greens with his broomhandle putter (his only three-stab came at the first hole). Scott is prohibitively priced for this market (trading at [3.05] to back) but it's a fair price when you consider his lack of opposition.

The next three in the market - Messrs Day, Ogilvy and Aaron Baddeley - are all putting machines whose ball-striking sometimes lets them down. The flatstick is a real weapon on Augusta's speedy surfaces but if you can't put the ball in position with your iron-play, it's rendered a redundant skill.

Therefore, if there is to be a surprise, it could come from John Senden (an attractive [10.0] to back) whose distance control should allow him to find the right shelves of these notorious greens.

Recommended Bet
Back Adam Scott @ [3.1]
Back John Senden @ [10.0]

There's some serious quality in the Top US Player market with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson dominating matters. But with the punters focused on those two, could there be value backing another American at a massive price?...

A small stakes wager on two of the forgotten men of British and Irish golf might just yield a profit in the top UK & Ireland market, suggests Romily Evans...

There are five Spanish players in the Masters lineup and the favourite is a justifiably short price to finish above his compatriots, says Romily Evans...

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US Masters Tips: Casey and Clarke can surprise in Top UK&Ire

US Masters / Romilly Evans / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Casey spring a surprise in the Top UK&Ireland betting?

"Casey is now back up to speed for a course tailor-made to his strengths. 'Team Casey' has recorded three top-11s since his debut sixth in 2004 and his Augusta return should generate the warm and fuzzies he needs to rekindle his desire for cut-throat contention."

A small stakes wager on two of the forgotten men of British and Irish golf might just yield a profit in the top UK & Ireland market, suggests Romily Evans

In a microcosm of the Top American betting, Rory McIlroy and Luke Donald bestride this betting landscape. Lee Westwood isn't far behind at [5.8] to back, but if pressed I'd rather take a bigger price about one of the big boys donning the Green Jacket with a bet in the winner market or placing outright, than these more miserly quotes.

Trawling further down the lists, Paul Casey ([38.0] to back) and Darren Clarke ([80.0] to back) take my eye at some huge double-digit odds. Of course, these exaggerated prices are not without reason - Clarke's form has dipped dramatically since his emotional win at Royal St George's, while Casey is only just getting his career back on track after a protracted period of emotional and physical torment.

In short, though, both men have suffered from motivational issues and taking their eyes off the ball. Clarke has refocused and is practising hard again (if his ISM blog is to be believed at any rate), while Casey is now back up to speed for a course tailor-made to his strengths. "Team Casey" has recorded three top-11s since his debut sixth in 2004 and his Augusta return should generate the warm and fuzzies he needs to rekindle his desire for cut-throat contention. Small-acorns-to-big-oaks is the staking plan here.

Recommended Bets
Back Paul Casey @ [38.0]
Back Darren Clarke @ [80.0]

There's some serious quality in the Top US Player market with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson dominating matters. But with the punters focused on those two, could there be value backing another American at a massive price?...

Adam Scott gets good vibes from Augusta and that's giving Romily Evans good vibes as he studies the Top Australian market for the 2012 Masters...

There are five Spanish players in the Masters lineup and the favourite is a justifiably short price to finish above his compatriots, says Romily Evans...

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US Masters Tips: DJ or CH3 to steal top US honours?

US Masters / Romilly Evans / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Charles Howell III would be a huge priced winner in the top US betting

"Johnson’s unique blend of club-head speed and bullseye putting may not come together every week, but when it does he’s near enough unbeatable."

There's some serious quality in the Top US Player market with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson dominating matters. But with the punters focused on those two, could there be value backing another American at a massive price?

Because this category houses so many fancied players, finding the Top American is often as hard as finding the tournament winner. Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, the two pre-eminent figures in recent annals with seven Green Jackets between them, accordingly dominate the market. But if they are to take a false step, who is most likely to step into their Footjoys and take advantage?

In the talent stakes, it's Nick Watney, Dustin Johnson or Rickie Fowler. In the form department, it's Bubba Watson or Hunter Mahan, who recorded his second win of the year at last week's Houston Open. As for proven-performer criteria, it's Steve Stricker or Jim Furyk who certainly sports the better course form of the two veterans. It's a veritable buffet of possibility and while it's hard to know where to start, if you do make the right choice, you'll be well rewarded (it's [15.0] to back bar the top two in the betting and real liquidity and prices are still to arrive).

For my money, Dustin Johnson is worth taking a flyer on at [24.0] to back. DJ has now had ample time to recover from the knee and back injuries which halted his progress last autumn and is ready to make an impact at Augusta. Johnson's unique blend of club-head speed and bullseye putting may not come together every week, but when it does he's near enough unbeatable. Both those facets are prized commodities at the Masters and, at 28, the time is right for his bloom to stardom after some desperate miscalculations at the 2010 USPGA and last year's Open Championship.

Further down the lists at [75.0] to back and bigger is Charles Howell III. Possessed of a dynamic and repeating swing and an effortless ball-striker, the only missing link from CH3's game is recent years has been putting performance. Those worries have thankfully subsided with the application of the belly putter, and Howell is also ready to contend after some strong showings this year (including a second at the Sony Open).

Howell is Augusta born-and-bred, will draw on enormous home support and even contended here in 2004 (13th) partnering Phil Mickelson on the Saturday. A win may be stretching it for this raw, long-putter-wielding player. Then again, they said the same about Keegan Bradley before last year's USPGA.

Recommended Bets
Back Dustin Johnson @ [24.0]
Back Charles Howell III @ [75.0]

A small stakes wager on two of the forgotten men of British and Irish golf might just yield a profit in the top UK & Ireland market, suggests Romily Evans...

Adam Scott gets good vibes from Augusta and that's giving Romily Evans good vibes as he studies the Top Australian market for the 2012 Masters...

There are five Spanish players in the Masters lineup and the favourite is a justifiably short price to finish above his compatriots, says Romily Evans...

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US Masters Tips: Henrik or Edoardo can be king of Europe

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Is Stenson on his way back?

"A top-15 finish may well be enough to win this market."

A pair of weak favourites head the betting for the top Continental European performer at this year's Masters, says Paul Krishnamurty, and that makes for good value down the field

A solid strategy for finding value in speciality markets is locating the one including weak links, and this 15-runner contest very much fits that bill. The two favourites have appalling recent records at Augusta - Sergio Garcia failing to better 35th since 2004, Martin Kaymer missing all three cuts. The number of realistic winners can also be reduced by discounting old-timers Jose-Maria Olazabal and Bernhard Langer, weak-putting debutant Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and three-time cut failure Anders Hansen.

Even otherwise strong candidates like Robert Karlsson, Alvaro Quiros and Fredrik Jacobson are out of form. Consequently, a top-15 finish may well be enough to win this market.

Two players in good form at decent odds stand out. Henrik Stenson is a class act on the way back from the Doldrums on the basis of five straight top-25s.

Edoardo Molinari is also in good nick, finishing top-11 on his last two starts and after last year's 11th place, we know he likes Augusta. The Italian's strength is his short game, so expect him to build a decent Masters portfolio throughout his career.

Recommended Bets
2u Henrik Stenson @ [12.5]
2u Edoardo Molinari @ [17.0]

There's some serious quality in the Top US Player market with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson dominating matters. But with the punters focused on those two, could there be value backing another American at a massive price?...

A small stakes wager on two of the forgotten men of British and Irish golf might just yield a profit in the top UK & Ireland market, suggests Romily Evans...

Adam Scott gets good vibes from Augusta and that's giving Romily Evans good vibes as he studies the Top Australian market for the 2012 Masters...

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US Masters Trends: Augusta dos and don'ts...

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Charl Schwartzel celebrates his historical fourth birdie in-a-row on the final hole last year

“Year after year, the man that dons the famous green jacket has putted with aplomb - only Luke Donald, who finished tied fourth, putted better than Schwartzel last year.”

Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, looks forward to the year's first major, highlighting trends to follow and pitfalls to avoid at the US Masters

Forget daffodils, snowdrops and birdsong, the Cheltenham Festival hints at the onset of spring and the US Masters announces its arrival.

Its position in the calendar isn't the only reason I await the year's first major so eagerly though. With its famous azaleas, dogwoods and perfectly manicured fairways, Augusta sure is easy on the eye and I can't be the only one who fondly remembers the pre-Sky Sports days when the US Masters was one of the few treats us golf fans got, but the real reason I've warmed to the event so much is that it's a great tournament to bet on.

The magical Masters is less than a fortnight away now, so with the Georgia venue back on my mind, here's a few Augusta Do's and Don'ts.

Do back an outsider if you fancy one. Four of the last five winners have started the week at triple-figure odds. With a superb Masters pedigree, Phil Mickelson surprised no one when he won here for the third time two years ago but very few picked out last year's victor Charl Schwartzel, nor the three that preceded Mickelson. Zach Johnson, Trevor Immelman and Angel Cabrera were all shock winners.

Don't take any notice of the no Aussie winner stat. It's true that no player from Down Under has triumphed yet but there's absolutely no reason why. Greg Norman came closest, famously blowing a six shot lead with a round to go in 1996, and Adam Scott wasn't far away last year either. He traded at a low of [1.39] before Schwartzel's birdie blitz and two fellow Aussies were also placed. Jason Day tied Scott for second and Geoff Ogilvy finished tied fourth. There are plenty of contenders from Down Under again this year and it's not a stat to give any credence to.

Do back a hole-in-one on day four. There have been seven aces in the last eight years and six have them have come on the 16th hole on Sunday. I see no reason for the organisers to end the practice of placing the pin in a favourable spot there and if you wait until the end of play on Saturday before backing Yes in the Hole-In-One market you may well get rewarded handsomely.

Don't back a debutant. Jason Day's 276 total last year was the lowest for a first-timer and a magnificent effort but other than the first two champs (Horton Smith in 1934 and Gene Sarazen a year later), Fuzzy Zoeller, back in 1979, is still the only other player to win on debut.

Do get involved in-running and do concentrate on the leaders. Schwartzel was tied 7th after round one last year and that's the furthest back any winner's been in six years after day one.

Don't back dodgy putters or poor scramblers. It's very hard to nail down exactly what constitutes the perfect Augusta type- hence the big price winners of late! Length off the tee is a distinct advantage but plenty of short hitters have won. Recent champions Zach Johnson and Mike Weir are hardly big bombers and Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O'Meara and Ben Crenshaw weren't renowned for getting it out there off the tee either. Finding the greens with regularity won't harm your cause and when you do miss them, keeping mistakes to a minimum is crucial, so excellent scrambling is key, but most important of all is putting. Year after year, the man that dons the famous green jacket has putted with aplomb - only Luke Donald, who finished tied fourth, putted better than Schwartzel last year.

Do put the radio on if you're serious about trading. It can drive you bonkers trying to watch the event on TV whilst listening to it on the radio at that same time but if you're serious about making it a profitable week, it may just be worth it.

Don't back anyone outside the final pairing on Sunday. Schwartzel benefited from Rory McIlroy's spectacular collapse last year and a Stuart Appleby stumble let in Zach Johnson in 2007 but they're the only two winners not to have started day four in the final two-ball in the last 20 years.

And finally, do enjoy the week. It's a joy from start to finish and it's very nearly here.

Our man's off to a poor start in Morocco, where they've only just started playing round two, but it's better news in Florida where both his picks start well, and he's got his eye on Tiger Woods too now......

With so little course form to go on, Steve looks to last week for the bulk of his five selections at this week's Race To Dubai event......

The Punter takes a look at this week's PGA Tour event, where Tiger Woods bids to win his seventh Arnold Palmer Invitational......

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