Players Championship Tips: Masters man Scott one of four three-ball selections on day one at Sawgrass

"Nick Watney took a little while to adjust to his new Nike clubs but has hit upon a real consistent run of results in recent months."

Back Nick Watney @ 2.77/4 

Golf's Fifth Major begins at Sawgrass on Thursday and what better way to get in the mood than a sprinkling of three-ball bets? Dan Geraghty has picked a quartet to follow on day one...

Experience is key at TPC Sawgrass and recent Masters winner Adam Scott has it in abundance. The Australian fulfilled his potential in devastating fashion at Augusta. With that confidence boost it would be no surprise to see him put in a strong performance this week at a venue where he became the youngest winner of the Players Championship in 2004 (at 23 years old). Scott tees off in the first round with Rory McIlroy, who says Sawgrass doesn't suit him and Steve Stricker who may be the danger at a big price.

Tim Clark is another former Players champion and is perhaps a worthy favourite for his three-ball. However, Kevin Streelman has been in superb form this season and he too has some good rounds at the Players on his CV. The American rates the bet at a nice price. D A Points makes up the trio - in three appearances here his form figures read M/M/WD.

Boo Weekley has bounced back to form with a bang this year and in a weak three-ball stands out as a strong pick against first round opponents Andres Romero, who is again struggling for form, and David Lingmerth who is making his debut in this event. Weekley was 21st here in 2008 when last in this kind of form.

Nick Watney took a little while to adjust to his new Nike clubs but has hit upon a real consistent run of results in recent months. The American's form figures at Sawgrass are at least as good as three-ball favourite Lee Westwood's, if not better. Ian Poulter makes up the trio, the Englishman has some fine rounds here to his name but has been struggling for form this year.

Recommended Bets 
Back Adam Scott @ 2.47/5 
Back Kevin Streelman @ 2.75n/a 
Back Boo Weekley @ 1.910/11 
Back Nick Watney @ 2.77/4 
*Follow me on twitter: @dangeraghty10

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Manchester United v West Brom: Fergie will get a response from players

Manchester United / Soccer Widow / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Valencia could be back for United

"United’s form has dipped since the injury to Antonio Valencia and last Sunday’s 0-3 win away at White Hart Lane flattered the Red Devils."

Soccer Widow crunches the numbers ahead of Manchester United's match against West Brom as the champions bid to bounce back from their Europa League defeat...

Manchester United's demise on Thursday night, accurately predicted by Soccer Widow in the Betfair Germany blog, is probably bad news for West Bromwich Albion, even though they have won their last three Premier League matches, a feat they last performed almost 10-years ago. However, it has never won four Premier League games on the bounce before.

Sir Alex Ferguson has already admitted that his team is struggling to balance the unusual calendar of Thursday-Sunday games, but a backlash must surely follow in the wake of the unexpected 'surrender' to Athletic Bilbao. He will know that United's form has dipped since the injury to Antonio Valencia and last Sunday's 0-3 win away at White Hart Lane flattered the Red Devils.

Speaking of Tottenham, the warning letter received this week by Ferguson from the FA not to talk about potential candidates for the England job (at the bequest of the Lilywhites) has been met with incredulity at Old Trafford. However, this can surely be only mock astonishment as Ferguson's comments are never to be taken lightly. Another set of mind games perhaps and, it is obvious that he would be only too delighted to see one of his strongest managerial rivals 'removed' from the Premier League competition and thrown to the 'Three Lions'.

The bad news for West Bromwich is that Valencia could be back for this game and, as the only 11 previous encounters at Old Trafford in the Premier League era have produced nine United victories and two draws, the statistics are also not exactly in favour of the Midland outfit. However, backing United to win holds no mathematical 'value' as Soccer Widow shows.

Statistics in more detail:

Head-To-Head (Manchester United home, West Bromwich Albion away, 6 matches since 2002, all competitions):
• Full time: Manchester United four wins (67%), two draws (33%); Last six (most recent first): D-H-H-H-D-H
• Half time: Manchester United four wins (67%), two draws (33%); WBA has not scored in the first half of any of these last six matches
• Manchester United clean sheet: three times (50%); WBA no clean sheets in these last six matches
• Both teams scored in three matches (50%) and United only in the other three (50%)
• All six games finished with less than 4.5 goals (100%)
• Goal numbers in these last six matches (most recent first): 4-4-3-4-2-1

Manchester United's last 25 home games in the Premier League
• Full time: 22 wins (88%), one draw (4%), two defeats (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-L-W-W
• Half time: 16 wins (64%), seven draws (28%), two defeats (8%)
• Manchester United scoring and keeping a clean sheet: 12 (48%)
• Both teams scored in 13 matches (52%)
• 17 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (68%)
• Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 3-2-3-5-5-5

West Bromwich Albion's last 25 away games in the Premier League
• Full time: nine wins (36%), six draws (24%), 10 defeats (40%); Last six (most recent first): W-D-W-L-W-W
• Half time: five wins (20%), nine draws (36%), 11 defeats (44%)
• West Bromich Albion clean sheet: once (4%)
• Both teams scored in 17 matches (68%)
• 20 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (80%)
• Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 6-2-3-1-5-3

Summary:

On paper, this game looks likely to be decided in United's favour, although bettors should be wary that the statistics show a win probability of only 65.3%, whilst Betfair's current price of [1.32], calculates the likelihood of victory at 75.8%. These odds are therefore almost 40% 'under-valued' and United should be priced more accurately at 1.53 to win this game.

Value Bet Recommendations:

• Back draw at full-time (odds [5.9], 'true' odds 4.23, value 51.9%, probability: 23.67%)

• Back over 1.5 goals at full-time (odds [1.2], 'true' odds 1.17, value 20%, probability: 67.33%)

• Back under 4.5 goals at full-time (odds [1.27], 'true' odds 1.15, value 80.7%, probability: 87%)

• Dutch-lay half-time correct scores (weighted stakes) on 1-1/2-1/0-1/Any Unquoted
(Combined odds [2.20], combined 'true' odds 6.67, value 303.7%, probability: 85%)

Both Manchesters lost in the Europa League tonight but whereas City are still favourites to progress despite their 1-0 loss in Lisbon, United have it all to do after a 3-2 defeat at home to Athletic Bilbao....

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The stats are out, the numbers have been crunched and the percentages compared to the odds on the betting markets. What does Soccer Widow recommend for us this week?...

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Scott Baumstein Leads WPT Bay 101 As Only 20 Players Remain

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Scott Baumstein (Photo: WPT / Francesco Rizzo)

Baumsteim, like his fellow Americans, lost his right to play online poker in the aftermath of Black Friday and was forced to turn his attention to live poker and so far it seems to be working out more than okay for him

One of the most popular stops on the World Poker Tour is without a shadow of a doubt the Bay 101 Shooting Stars Main Event in San Jose. The tournament is always one of the best attended each season, which means it has some huge prizes on offer but its unique format makes it fun and exciting to both watch and participate in.

Each year a number of prominent poker players are selected to become Shooting Stars for the duration of the event and each of these so-called Shooting Stars has a $5,000 bounty placed on their head. Whoever eliminates a Shooting Stars picks up their $5,000 bounty and a personalised T-shirt. It is all good fun and has always been received well. Along with these bounties the chip leaders from Day 1a and Day 1b also receive a $10,000 bonus which means it can be quite a profitable trip even if a player does not make it into the money.

Yesterday saw 149 players and 19 shooting stars return to their seats in the Bay 101 Casino in San Jose, California for Day 2 of the Main Event and by the time the tournament director Matt Savage called time on proceedings only 20 players has chips to bag up, amongst them just two Shooting Stars. They were JC Tran who bagged and tagged 145,000 and former World Series of Poker Main Event champion Jonathan Duhamel who ended the day with a much healthier looking stack of 751,000 chips. However, both bounty-laden players were massively outchipped by Scott Baumstein who will start Day 3 later today armed with little ceramic discs worth 1,301,000.

Who wants to be a millionaire

Baumstein was one of only three players to end the Day 2 with more than one millions chips, the others being Andrew Badecker (1,106,000) and Moon Kim (1,016,000), and he is now in pole position to take down this tournament. Baumstein may not be a household name just yet but he is an extremely talented poker player indeed and it is only a matter of time before he becomes better known in the live poker world; maybe this could be his springboard to stardom?

The American is a high-stakes heads-up sit 'n' go specialist and like some of his peers, Olivier Busquet springs to mind, he has been able to transfer his online skills into the live arena. Baumsteim, like his fellow Americans, lost his right to play online poker in the aftermath of Black Friday and was forced to turn his attention to live poker and so far it seems to be working out more than okay for him. In 2011 he cashed twice at the World Series of Poker including reaching the final table of the $5,000 Shootout event, he also finished fourth at WPT Amneville where he busted out in fourth place and in November he won a star-studded €10,000 buy-in High Roller event at the Amsterdam Masters for a career best score of €129,500. In total Baumstein has won just under $745,000 from live poker tournaments but that amount will be dwarfed if he goes all the way in this event as there is $960,900 awaiting the eventual winner, plus the possibility of two $5,000 bounties of course.

Standing between Baumstein and the win are the aforementioned players but also a sprinkling of talented and famous players including WSOPE bracelet winner Erik Cajelais, former WPT champion Taylor von Kriegenbergh and WSOP bracelet winner Amir Lehavot. Play resumes at 12:00 Pacific Time (20:00GMT) and we believe the plan is to play down to the six-handed final table. At which point each player will be guaranteed $128,200 and will be just five eliminations away from becoming a World Poker Tour champion.

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Lee Dixon Video: Man City players will forgive Tevez

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Tevez and Mancini kiss and make-up?

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Fulham Players: Cottage in order with Murphy at the helm

Players Under The Microscope / Paul Moon / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Danny Murphy bosses the Fulham midfield and chips in with a few goals a season

"Fulham have enjoyed their most successful period in their history with Murphy as captain, something that has largely passed unnoticed. Once he leaves the club via a transfer or eventual retirement, his true value will be recognised."

He's not one of the Premier League's more fashionable players nor is the club he plays for but the stats don't lie and Danny Murphy's worth to the cause is immense, says Paul Moon.

Poor technique is the major reason why very few British footballers and midfielders in particular, are successfully able to play for a top team on the continent. Danny Murphy is a rare product of the English game in that he could have played there and flourished. More so than most of his domestic colleagues, he has a decent first touch, a fine range of passing and understands the importance of ball retention.

Statistics composed by Opta and posted on Sky revealed an astonishing fact - Murphy had completed the most passes in the Premier League (2329) last season. What is both remarkable and surprising is that he accomplished the feat with a mid-table football club, which is what Fulham are. One imagined a player in a top tier club would have completed those numbers and with a team normally associated with mastering the art of possession. These statistics look even better when you discover he also came fifth in making the most tackles behind Lucas (Liverpool), Vaughan (Blackpool), Alcaraz (Wigan) and Parker (West Ham).

Looking at the reaction on the forums, the suggestion is that a lot of those passes were irrelevant or sideways. There is no such thing. Keeping the ball is an art form and something at odds with the British public psyche. You cannot fluke those Opta statistics and I prefer Mark Hughes's evaluation of the player when he acknowledged 'Murphy works at the coal face of the game.'

His career has generally been described as 'solid' but that particular word falls short of describing his value. There are negatives attached to his career though, of course. As a player we can accuse him of not being ambitious enough and consequently, he has under-achieved. He has resigned himself to being a big fish in a small pond and has quipped on a couple of occasions that he has 'no intention of sitting on a bench and taking the money' and this philosophy has shaped his career. It could be something he regrets later in life when he's hung up his boots.

When he left Liverpool at 27-years old and approaching his peak he downgraded and played for three somewhat average sides in Chartlon, Tottenham (average at the time 2006/07) and Fulham. His detractors talk about a lack of pace and this is fair comment, but like all class players of that mould, his sound positional play easily compensates for any lack of speed.

He played nine times for England, scoring once ,and was due to play in the 2002 World Cup before falling victim to the dreaded metatarsal injury; that obviously hindered his career at a crucial stage. Had he the opportunity to showcase his talents to the world that year it is doubtful his path would have led to Craven Cottage and he may yet have secured a big move where he could have played a starring role in a trophy-winning spell.

He will be most remembered for his career at Liverpool that included a most unique cup treble in 2001 - League Cup, FA Cup and UEFA Cup. There he developed an uncanny knack of scoring the deciding goal in tight matches. At Old Trafford he scored the only goal in three wins over Manchester United in four consecutive seasons and one can only imagine what was said in those forums in Lancashire at the time.

Surprisingly and considering the football knowledge of the Anfield faithful, most did not mourn his exit and this was at odds with his major contribution. He never played regularly in his best position and this was proven when he rose another level after his departure. Fulham have enjoyed their most successful period in their history with Murphy as captain, something that has largely passed unnoticed. Once he leaves the club via a transfer or eventual retirement, his true value will be recognised.

At 34-years old he is coming to the end of his playing career and has made no secret of his desire to go into coaching where he has all the credential to do well. He is intelligent, clearly understands the game and has man-management skills. Dario Gradi of Crewe rated his football intelligence so highly as a youngster that he sent him on scouting missions. He is still regarded as a legend at that club and would be welcomed with open arms should he wish to be manager somewhere down the line.

Judging by his keen interest in football management this could well be Murphy's last year and he would hope that Fulham replicate their eighth place from last year. But after looking at the candidates in that's an odds-against chance. Prices show: Man Utd [1.01] Chelsea [1.02] Man City [1.03] Arsenal [1.04] Liverpool [1.04] Tottenham [1.09] Everton [1.34] Sunderland [1.63] Aston Villa [1.93] Fulham [2.42] Newcastle [2.88] Stoke [2.92] Bolton [3.3] West Brom [3.6] Blackburn [4.4] Bar [6.6].

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Premier League Summer Transfers: When the Board men pick the players

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Fabio Cannavaro is a World Cup winning captain and a class act but can his 37 year-old legs still handle the pace of the Premier League?

"The story from Italy has leaked this morning that Italy’s World Cup winning captain Fabio Cannavaro could be recruited at Loftus Road. The stylish centre back, the most capped player in Italy’s history, is available on a free after turning down a lucrative coaching role at Qatar club Al Ahli, where he’s been since leaving Juventus."

Gone are the days when it was solely the Manager who decided which players his club should sign. Ralph Ellis looks at which Premier League Chairmen and Board Members like to meddle when it comes to raiding the transfer market.

We all think we know about football. We've all got an opinion. And that's fine when it's you and me discussing what to have a bet on, or what went wrong with England's Under 21s. It doesn't really do that much harm either when it's random punters ringing in to the local radio station to air their daft views, however much that might add to the pressure on the guy who's running the team.

When it really causes problems is when football club directors start thinking they can spot a player. All the more so, when they reckon they know more than their manager. Then you've got a recipe for disaster.

The trend in football for chairmen and chief executives to get involved in transfers began when they took responsibility from managers for the task of negotiating fees and contracts. What happened next, in many clubs, was that they tried to take over choosing the players to buy as well. Agents saw the signs, and cosied up to the blokes who signed the cheques.

It's ended up with the ridiculous situation that Birmingham's acting chairman put out a statement over the weekend insisting he didn't meddle in the transfer decisions of former boss Alex McLeish; and he justified the claim by giving a list of players he'd wanted to sign that McLeish wouldn't have. It struck me it actually proved the board did interfere - otherwise why were they spending time finding players in the first place?

There's a similar row brewing, you sense, at Queen's Park Rangers. The story from Italy has leaked this morning that Italy's World Cup winning captain Fabio Cannavaro could be recruited at Loftus Road. The stylish centre back, the most capped player in Italy's history, is available on a free after turning down a lucrative coaching role at Qatar club Al Ahli, where he's been since leaving Juventus.

Now I know that Hoops boss Neil Warnock seemed to have changed his lifetime of pragmatic football philosophy last season by finding a role for maverick Moroccan Adel Taarabt. But I somehow can't see that his idea of how to shore up a defence ready for the Premier League is to sign a 37-year-old, whose legs have gone. The man behind the move is clearly co-owner Flavio Briatore, whose passion to interfere in the running of the team caused so many problems for the ten managers and 47 players who came and went in four years of his control previously.

Ominously, in the last few weeks QPR have also been linked with 37-year-old Marco Matterazzi (who has been freed by Inter Milan) as well as Nicola Legrottaglie, who is 34 and just been let go by AC Milan.

Warnock has hitherto been adept at handling the politics of the QPR boardroom, but the higher profile of a place in the Premier League will re-open the whole can of worms. Briatore is now back in charge of football operations, backed by Bernie Ecclestone's money, since Amit Bhatia and Ishan Saksena, the men behind the recruitment of Warnock, stood aside.

QPR are [1.96] to be the top promoted team in a new Betfair market, and I'm tempted to lay that. Warnock has been telling his local papers how he's "hoping the board will clarify that I can sign" players he's been looking at. It's fair to assume that none of them are ageing Italian World Cup legends.

The toughest task for any newly promoted manager is strengthening his squad. Players are reluctant to sign up to a club that promises them little more than a struggle against relegation, and want to wait to see if they can do better.

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The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Players Championship and the Iberdrola Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 15 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gregory Bourdy - Could he be the one to benefit if Wood slips up?

"Yesterday’s 67 was a great bounce-back after Friday’s horrific 77 and I can see Bourdy shooting somewhere in the mid-60’s today. If Wood does fail to deliver, the Frenchman could just be the one to capitalise."

Rain stops play at the Players and Wood looks poised for success in Spain...

09.55 - May 15, 2011

Entering the final round with a four shot lead, Chris Wood looks on the verge of breaking his European Tour duck but you only have to look back to round two when Gregory Bourdy, Rhys Davies and Danny Willet all lost their way to realise that no lead here is big enough.

What a story a win for Jose Maria Olazabal would be (currently on -4 and five behind Wood) but for my money the value looks to be in first round leader Bourdy who sits on -3. Yesterday's 67 was a great bounce-back after Friday's horrific 77 and I can see him shooting somewhere in the mid-60's today. If Wood does fail to deliver, the Frenchman could just be the one to capitalise.

I've done nothing further at the Players where a weather delay has resulted in the leaders still having most of their third rounds to play.

11.40 - May 14, 2011

With Gregory Bourdy, and to a lesser extent, Rhys Davies and Danny Willet, all collapsing in a heap yesterday afternoon my Levet wager doesn't look too bad now. Chris Wood bucked the trend of poor afternoon play though, with a quite superb 65 and he now leads by three from Darren Clarke.

Can Wood emulate recent winners Thomas Aiken and Nicolas Colsaerts and secure his maiden win? He won't get too many better chances than this now and he'll surely draw inspiration from that pair but at just [2.60] he makes no appeal at all. Sooner or later he'll get it done but until then I can't get out of my mind how wobbly he's been when in the mix previously and I fancy he's a shade too short.

At the Players Championship, I experienced one of those delightful second rounds you get now and again whereby the picks that were so bad on day one that they were already out of it played well, whilst those that had played well on day one, played pants - rendering all your picks in no man's land.

In truth, only Ben Crane and in-running play Y E Yang were firmly in-contention after day one but their matching 76's have seen their chances gone. Crane just made the cut by a shot and Yang has a weekend off.

It's been a poor show to say the least and the best of my pre-event picks now is Bubba Watson, who shot a brilliant 66 - fully ten shots better than his day one effort!

I could have just called it a day, especially given I'm highly likely to be otherwise engaged tonight after the F.A Cup final, but I have had a number of further plays at big odds. As Paul Krishnamurty points out here, huge swings are possible at Sawgrass and I could see plenty of value last night and again this morning.

I topped up on Bubba at [1000.0] when he had three to play last night and that would have been massive had he made the two birdie putts on 16 and 18 from under ten feet.

I got Aaron Baddeley, currently on -7 and trailing halfway leader David Toms by three, onside last night at [30.0] and then this morning I've added K J Choi (-6) at [34.0], Rory Sabbatini (-6) at [48.0], Alvaro Quiros (-4) at [170.0], Brian Gay (-4) at [260.0], and Phil Mickelson (-2) at [120.0].

My tactics today are to enjoy the football, celebrate hard if City win or undertake a pretty determined sorrow drowning effort should Stoke prevail. Hopefully when I make it home the leaderboards will be favourable but if they're not, so be it, it's all about football today for yours truly.

13.00 - May 13, 2011

The big story of day one at the Players was the withdrawal, for the second year in-a-row, of Tiger Woods and it's the first time that I've actually stopped and thought that we could be witnessing the beginning of the end. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that the greatest exponent the game has ever seen has already worn himself out at the age of just 35. Let's hope not because a loss of form due to a disastrous personal life is one thing but being robbed of a fulfilling career because of injury is quite another.

Tiger aside the event's bubbling up nicely and the leaderboard already has a fascinating look about it. First round leader Nick Watney touched [50.0] before the off, a bigger price than he's been in ages but with a poor set of Sawgrass form figures and after a woeful missed cut last week it was understandable.

My lot were on the whole poor with only Ben Crane now trading at a shorter price than I took before the off. Crane tees off this evening and has four shots to make up on Watney.

I've added one more in Korean Y E Yang, who I've backed a few times just lately at skinny odds. He missed two cuts on the Race to Dubai, one in China and one in his homeland and I'd backed him from the off in both. I thought he was best left alone after those efforts but he looked back to his best for most of yesterday. I backed him in-running at an average of a shade under [100.0] so his bogey-par-bogey finish was particularly disappointing but he's still on the premises on -3.

I'm tempted by Martin Kaymer right now, trading at around [13.0] after a first round score of -5, but I'm going to let things roll for now and possibly get further involved this evening.

At the Iberdrola Open, Jaco Van Zyl did well enough for me in the tougher afternoon conditions yesterday - shooting -3. It was a wholly different story this morning though when he shot fully ten shots more and he now misses the cut! That was the only bad news though as I've had a couple of strokes of luck.

Sky's Tony Johnstone said this morning that he could see one of the older more experienced players taking this week's title and I couldn't agree more, and once more, the old head I've got onside has done me proud so far.

I built up a reasonable little bet on Thomas Levet at an average of [50.0] this morning and he looks well poised on -4, just three shots off the current lead. The wind didn't really get up that much yesterday afternoon but the scoring was still nearly a stroke better in the morning and I've played Levet on the hope that the leaders don't get away this afternoon.

My other stroke of luck was not backing Rhys Davies. I very nearly backed him at [10.0], seeing him as the big danger of the afternoon starters but I chose to leave him be and given he's bogeyed the 1st I may well have done the right thing. Heaven knows what Rhys has done since, the wretched European Tour websites leaderboard has stopped working yet again. Odd how it always seems to pack up when there's no TV coverage. Not that I'm of a suspicious nature...

12:55- May 12, 2011

As suspected, the cream is already rising to the top at the Iberdrola Open, with the well-touted 2007 winner Gregory Bourdy making the early running. His play was a little tardy at the end of the round but some great scrambling resulted in him setting a new course record with his seven under-par 63.

As a course winner in pretty decent form Bourdy was easy enough to fancy before the off but at around [16.0] he was also plenty short enough for my liking and given the way he finished today, it's pretty clear he isn't going to run away with it.

Playing in the same three-ball, Danny Willet took just one more stroke and sits in second with Darren Clarke and Rhys Davies hot on the leader's heels.

I've added to my already spent Markus Brier wager (the Austrian shot +1) by backing South African Jaco Van Zyl, who's only just teed off. I toyed with backing him before play started and now I've been reminded of how tricky and tight off the tee this venue is, I've taken the plunge. He recently lost in a play-off in Morocco and his accurate driving should be a great asset here - though bogeying the 1st isn't the greatest of starts!

They've only just started playing at the Players Championship where all bar rag Matteson of my picks have a morning tee-time.

Iberdrola Open
Pre event selection

Markus Brier @ an average of [140.0]

In-running picks

Jaco Van Zyl @ [80.0] - Prior to his tee-off on day one
Thomas Levet @ an average of [50.0] - During round two
Gregory Bourdy @ [30.0] - After round three

Players Championship
Pre-event selections

Ben Crane @ [40.0]
Bubba Watson @ [65.0]
Zach Johnson @ [85.0]
Pat Perez @ [190.0]
Stephen Ames @ [250.0]
Heath Slocum @ [360.0]
Troy Matteson @ [620.0]

In-running picks

Y E Yang @ [100.0] - During round one
Bubba Watson @ [1000.0] - During round two
Aaron Baddeley @ [30.0] - After round two
K J Choi @ [34.0] - After round two
Rory Sabbatini @ [48.0] - After round two
Phil Mickelson @ [120.0] - After round two
Alvaro Quiros @ [170.0] - After round two
Brian Gay @ [260.0] - After round two

Our man's struggled to find a fancy in Mallorca but there's plenty of picks at the Players where he's hoping it's going to be fourth time lucky for Ben.......

With a maiden winner in Spain and one of his least favourite players scooping the prize across the pond, it's been a poor week for Steve......

The world of golf is in mourning as Seve passes away but the show goes on in Spain and North Carolina, despite the sad news......

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PGA Tour Betting: Three Against the Field at the The Players Championship 2011

Three Against The Field / Dan Geraghty / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jason Day is a talented golfer on the up

It's the big one in Sawgrass so here is regular PGA Tour watcher Dan Geraghty with a trio to follow at the Players

Jason Day [55.0] made a lot of new fans at the Masters, he followed that up with a fine performance next time out at the Heritage (finishing ninth) - a place where course experience (which Day didn't have) really is essential to win. He arrives at Sawgrass with some big recent results to back up the confident swagger that's often accompanied him. Foreigners have dominated this event for the past three years and Day can add an Australians name to that of a Spaniard (Garcia), a Swede (Stenson) and a South African (Clark).

Francesco Molinari [95.0] took this tournament by the scruff of the neck on his first visit last year but ultimately fell away disappointingly to finish ninth. With that experience under his belt as well a fine win in Shanghai when going head-to-head with Lee Westwood, Molinari is in a stronger position to see out the tournament and claim victory should he find himself in a similar position this week. Word is the course is playing tough, and Molinari's majestic tee to green game will stand him in good stead, the Italian doesn't find himself out of position too often.

Finally, I can't desert last week's selection Martin Kaymer [46.0], perhaps a risky selection as he's currently tinkering with his game a little. However, despite not making many inroads at the top of the leaderboard, I think Kaymer played well enough last week, it should have put him spot on for this and his price has me salivating - it's huge!!! If I didn't know better I'd assume Martin was a non trier at that price.

Dangers: Ben Crane [40.0] is very popular this week, chiefly because he's finished in the top six here in each of the last three years and he looks to be an improved player this year. He should go well again, however, I can't have him in a field of this quality at that price. Phil Mickelson [17.0] stands out of those at the top of the market. Big Phil won this tournament in 2007 and brushed away the cobwebs last week with a fine performance at Quail Hollow. Young Italian Matteo Mannasero [130.0] is a tempting price on a course that should suit, his lack of experience in the States is off putting but he's certainly one to keep an eye on.

Rickie RoundUp: Rickie continues to frustrate and while his numerous top 20s are racking up the $$$ for himself, his silly bogies/doubles/trebles are keeping him out of the places for us. He missed the cut here last year on his debut in the event but surely better awaits this week. He's spent his downtime fishing with Bubba... http://yfrog.com/gyeabhcj

Selections: Jason Day [55.0], Francesco Molinari [95.0], Martin Kaymer [46.0]

Dan Geraghty selects a trio of players who he believes could be in contention in Charlotte this weekend. Meanwhile, watch out for Rory as his post-Augusta rehabilitation continues......

Dan Geraghty has high hopes for 2010's 'nearly man' for this week's Three Against the Field column on the Zurich Classic....

Dan Geraghty picks out some strong performers from The Masters for this week's Three Against the Field column on The Heritage at Harbour Town....

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Find Me a 100 Winner Trading System:The Players Championship at Sawgrass

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Allenby can shine again on a course he loves

"Greens in regulation are at an absolute premium around this layout, and Allenby is usually very reliable in that department, topping those stats on his penultimate start."

Three players who share some important characteristics make Paul's shortlist of big-priced players to follow at Sawgrass

Last year's Players Championship was a heartbreaking affair for this column, with [130.0] pick Robert Allenby trading at odds-on before being reeled in down the stretch. Back then, these 100 winner picks were recommended as win only selections, but had the new trading system been followed, a substantial profit would have been guaranteed long before that frustrating finish.

Allenby once again makes the staking plan, because that performance confirmed long-held suspicions that he is ideally suited to Sawgrass. Greens in regulation are at an absolute premium around this layout, and Allenby is usually very reliable in that department, topping those stats on his penultimate start. Equally top-six finishes at Redstone and Riviera suggest he isn't so far off his best. I see no good reason why he should again be available at [100.0].

The other positive with Allenby is that he's precisely the type of vastly experienced, older player that tends to do well at Sawgrass, due to the emphasis on accuracy and course knowledge, rather than power. Indeed the shortest hitter on the tour, Fred Funk, won this title at the age of 48. Scott Verplank was tied for second on that occasion in 2005, and if recent evidence is a guide, remains just as competitive now as he was then. Verplank could be considered unlucky to have run into a peak-form Mickelson when runner-up at Redstone, and also made the top-ten on another Pete Dye layout last time at the Heritage.

I can't make a similar argument for my third pick on recent form, but Stephen Ames has such strong Sawgrass credentials that odds of [250.0] are simply too big to ignore. Ames won this title by six shots in 2006, and was one of the unluckiest ever losers in 2002, when finishing second to [500.0] rag Craig Perks who seemingly holed everything. The Canadian also made the top-five in 2008, again confirming his liking for this accuracy test. Granted, he hasn't set this year's PGA Tour alight, but Ames has at least managed a top-three in Puerto Rico, and ranked inside the top-ten for greens in regulation on his penultimate start, finishing mid-division at the Heritage.

The plan is to lay out a total of 5 units, and then place two lay orders on each player at [12.0] and [3.0], ensuring that we at least double our money if any single lay target is hit.

Recommended Bets
2.5 units Robert Allenby @ [100.0]
1.5 units Scott Verplank @ [160.0]
1 unit Stephen Ames @ [250.0]

Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [12.0]
Place order to lay each player 20 units @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -19.5 units

Paul Krishnamurty discusses the merits of trading on players who have the ability to get in front but rarely finish the job. This week he's backing one such man in Spain......

Paul Krishnamurty believes the layers are offering silly odds on a certain Ryder Cup star......

A handful of Masters notables are making the long trip to Malaysia but their presence only serves to inflate the prices of others, giving Paul Krishnamurty reason to back a trio of three-figure competitors...

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Players Championship Finals Tips: Pile into Pieman

Darts / Jaymes Monte / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

An in-form Smith represents value.

"Smith’s form has been progressive over the past six months"

With Taylor available at odds-against prices for the season's opening premier event, this promises to be one of the most exciting seasons in recent darts history. Watch the action on Betfair Live Video

We've been here before and Phil 'The Power' Taylor has come back to prove everyone wrong, and he may well do so again. However, things are different this time around. Not only has the 15-time world champion's form deteriorated but the chasing pack have also improved dramatically. The Power asked them to raise their game and, collectively, they have responded.

Andy 'Pieman' Smith beat Taylor in the fourth round of a Players Championship event on Saturday to continue the run of good form that he showed at Alexandra Palace. But he's been handed a tough opening round draw at Doncaster Dome this evening when he faces the winner of Sunday's Players Championship event Ronnie Baxter.

The head-to-head record between the two strongly favours Baxter who has 11 wins to Smith's five. However, Smith has won three of the last four including a 6-3 victory for Pieman the last time that the two crossed paths.

Smith's form has been progressive over the past six months and although Baxter is clearly also in very good form there is plenty of value to be had in backing the outsider here at odds of [2.5] over such a short format.

Recommended Bet:
Back Andy Smith to beat Ronnie Baxter @ [2.5]

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