Wayne Mardle: England should beat Japan in Quarter Finals but Belgium are the real threat

"Finland v Germany will be close, but I can see Jani Haavisto being the deciding factor.

Back Finland to beat Germany at 2.01/1

Wayne Mardle predicts an easy win for England against Japan, but thinks Belgium are the pair to look out for.

Well, what a day of darts yesterday! In what was a complete surprise to me and many others, five of the eight seeds went tumbling in the second round. It really did show what I touched on in my first column, namely that, in this short format, you're never far away from a shock or two.

Today is quarter final day and the format will now change slightly: We'll now see two singles matches (best of seven legs) and then a deciding pairs match if needed.

This new format will play into the hands of the English, in my view. They step up to the oche to face Japan in a game I think they'll win 2-0. Japan are as big as 13.5n/a to cause an upset but I just can't see that happening.

Similar to the England v Japan game, Spain against Wales is another game in which the format means the favourites will emerge victorious. If it was just a pairs setup Spain may well have been a threat, but Wales will be too strong and should also emerge 2-0 winners. Wales are currently 1.330/100 to record a win.

Finland face hosts Germany in their quarter final and will also of course have the obstacle of a home crowd to contend with. This one will be close but I can see Jani Haavisto being the deciding factor here. He's done the damage for Finland when needed and a bit of magic from him should see the Finns through.

First up though we've got Belgium taking on Croatia. The Belgians destroyed the Australians in the last round with a 101 average, the highest of the competition so far. Croatia have done well but this is where the tournament will end for them. 

And one thing's for sure, the Huybrechts brothers from Belgium are a real threat to win the whole tournament.

Recommended Bet

Finland to beat Germany @ 2.01/1

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ODI Betting: Jayawardene can steer Sri Lanka to the finals

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jayawardene can lead the way to the finals

"Sri Lanka have already beaten Australia twice and they are quite capable of doing so again, particularly given that the Aussies do not need to win in Melbourne."

There's a simple equation for Sri Lanka in Melbourne: win the game to reach the finals and Andrew Hughes thinks they can do it.

March 2, Australia v Sri Lanka, Melbourne, Live on Sky Sports 1, 03:20 GMT

Team News
Australia's main selection dilemma is whether to risk captain Michael Clarke as he recovers from a hamstring injury. The signs are that he will be fit, but selectors may decide to give him an extra couple of days rehabilitation. Quick bowler James Pattinson is back in the squad and should come into the side for Ryan Harris.

Sri Lanka had been going well in this competition until their shock defeat by India on Tuesday, so they will not want to change things too much. They will though have to replace the injured Fervez Maharoof and are likely to go with another seam bowler such as Dhammika Prasad rather than a second spinner.

Venue and Conditions
The MCG surface should offer something for quick bowlers prepared to bend their backs but, based on what we saw in the opening game at the venue when Australia raced to 216 in 32 overs, this will be a batting-friendly pitch, with the true bounce enabling the more expansive strokeplayers to express themselves. There will be some cloud around on Friday, but no rain is forecast.

Match Odds
Tuesday's result has turned this final game from a gentle formality to a nail-biting eliminator. Sri Lanka's inability to defend a total of 320 against India will also have dented their confidence. The way that Virat Kohli was able to score at will from the bowling of Lasith Malinga was particularly worrying and both Mahela Jayawardene's use of the Powerplays and his bowling changes have been criticised

But I don't think punters should overreact on the basis of one result. Sri Lanka have played well throughout this tournament and it is in the nature of limited overs cricket that one brilliant performance like Kohli's can decide a game. Sri Lanka have already beaten Australia twice and they are quite capable of doing so again, particularly given that the Aussies do not need to win in Melbourne. At odds of [2.6] I'll be backing the wily Jayawardene to take his team to the finals.

Top Australian Batsman
Shane Watson struggled in his brief innings last Sunday and there have to be doubts over whether Australia will risk their captain for this game, so there aren't too many options in this market. David Hussey scored another half-century, but now that he finally seems to have discovered his touch, the tentative selection is David Warner, who should be suited by the MCG pitch and can be backed at [4.75] or better.

Top Sri Lankan BatsmanI
t was good news for Sri Lanka that Kumar Sangakkara finally got amongst the runs on Tuesday and he can be backed at [4.5] but the men to rely on in this market are the openers. Tillakaratne Dilshan hit a stunning 160 against India, but I'll be siding with Jayawardene. I'd expect him to respond to criticism of his captaincy with a solid batting performance and he is worth backing at [4.5] or better.

Featured Market
With a good batting surface expected at the MCG and some big hitters like Warner and Dilshan in form, the scene is set for plenty of runs. Backing 'Over 82.5' in the Highest Individual Score market at [2.0] is the way to go.

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Back Sri Lanka to beat Australia at 2.6

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ATP World Tour Finals Stats: Fish and Tsonga to go the distance

ATP Tour Finals Betting / Ben Caudell / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga pushed Federer all the way in his opening match

"The Frenchman has gone over the 23.5 total games mark sixteen times from his last twenty six matches indoors. Fish has exceeded this same total game line nineteen times from his last thirty."

Ben Caudell has identified two bets based on stats ahead of this afternoon's action at the O2 arena. Over to you. Ben...

4 Reasons to Back Federer -3.5 Games @ [2.0] (Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal - 20:00 Match)

•Roger Federer's last victory over the Spaniard came at this event a year ago in the final of the end of season finale at the O2. This will be only their fourth meeting indoors; with all the previous head-to-heads coming at the season finale (2006-07 and last year. Federer has won all of them.

•All three of Federer's indoor victories over Nadal have been won by more than 3.5 games (Shanghai 2006 6-4 7-5, Shanghai 2007 6-4 6-1, London 6-3 3-6 6-1)

•Federer has far superior career stats when it comes down to playing on indoor hard courts. The number four ranked player in the world has won seventeen matches in a row, 88% of all matches played on this surface compared with 69% for Nadal, 72% of service points won and 92% of service holds, compared with 66% and 83% respectively for Nadal.

•Since the World Tour Finals event in London 2009, Federer has recorded 25 wins out of a possible 29 by more than 3.5 games on indoor hard courts and is in much better shape than his opponent coming into this match holding a grander surface rating and match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player, taking head-to-heads into account.)

4 Reasons to Back Over 23.5 Games @ [2.0] (Jo Wilfired Tsonga v Mardy Fish - 14:00 Match)

•Both players went over the 23.5 games line in their opening World Tour Finals matches. Mardy Fish lost to Rafael Nadal in a final set tie-break and Tsonga to Federer 6-4 in the third.

•Tsonga triumphed in a five set epic at this year's US Open in their only head-to-head match to date.

•The Frenchman has gone over the 23.5 total games mark sixteen times from his last twenty six matches indoors. Fish has exceeded this same total game line nineteen times from his last thirty.

•Eight tie breaks have taken place in Tsonga's last thirteen matches and seven from twelve matches for Mardy Fish.

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NBA Conference Finals Betting: Bulls and Mavs can pull clear in game three

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Man in form - Derrick Rose is leading the Bulls charge

"Chicago is trading at a generous [2.92] to win the game."

In the East and the West, four teams are battling it out to reach the biggest series in basketball. But who will get there? Nick Shiambouros selects the best bets.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat v Chicago Bulls - Series Tied 1-1

The Miami Heat won Game 2 85-75 in determined fashion at the United Center on Wednesday night. This defensive battle was won in the fourth quarter when Miami held Chicago to just 10 points.

The Heat looked in trouble for most of the game but LeBron James made some huge buckets in the closing stages to seal the victory and square the series.

The Bulls left the floor in disbelief after this tough loss. They had a real chance of taking control of the series but their offense let them down badly. They only managed to shoot 34 percent from the field and 60 percent from the line. These numbers will not get the job done against a team like the Heat.

The action moves to Miami on Sunday for Game 3 of this compelling series. The Heat will once again rely heavily on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to put points on the board. These two players have provided most of the offense for Miami but they have played with very little rest.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra will try to give his two superstars as much rest as possible in Game 3 but he does not have a strong bench to rely on.

The Bulls come in to this game in good order. They have matched Miami in almost every department and this young team will not go down easily.

Point guard Derrick Rose is playing extremely well and is confident his team will make it to the NBA Finals. Forward Luol Deng is growing in stature and is imposing himself in the series. He is beginning to see more of the ball and is shooting well.

Chicago is trading at a generous [2.92] to win the game. There is very little to choose between these two teams but the Bulls have a much deeper bench which could make the difference here.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder v Dallas Mavericks - Series Tied 1-1
The Oklahoma City Thunder levelled the series with a 106-100 victory on Thursday night in Dallas. The Thunder came to play and thoroughly deserved the victory in this entertaining affair.

Kevin Durant was on fire for the Thunder scoring 24 points. The young forward played virtually the whole game without a rest and barely looked out of breath as he left the floor.

Dallas only trailed by one point with seven minutes to go but the Thunder pulled away with an 11-2 run to put the game beyond doubt.

Game 3 of the series moves to Oklahoma on Saturday. Dirk Nowitzki is having a fantastic series for Dallas and will be tough to contain again. This experienced forward has scored a total of 77 points in the first two games. He's bound to add substantially to this impressive number on Saturday night.
The Mavs are trading at [2.22] to win Game 3 which is more than fair in my opinion. They did not play all that badly in Game 2 and are still the team to beat.

I have not changed my mind about Dallas. They are the deeper team and I fully expect them to prevail in this pulsating series.

Recommended Bets
Saturday back Dallas in Game 3 in the Match Odds market at [2.22]
Sunday back Chicago in Game 3 in the Match Odds market at [2.92]

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Players Championship Finals Tips: Pile into Pieman

Darts / Jaymes Monte / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

An in-form Smith represents value.

"Smith’s form has been progressive over the past six months"

With Taylor available at odds-against prices for the season's opening premier event, this promises to be one of the most exciting seasons in recent darts history. Watch the action on Betfair Live Video

We've been here before and Phil 'The Power' Taylor has come back to prove everyone wrong, and he may well do so again. However, things are different this time around. Not only has the 15-time world champion's form deteriorated but the chasing pack have also improved dramatically. The Power asked them to raise their game and, collectively, they have responded.

Andy 'Pieman' Smith beat Taylor in the fourth round of a Players Championship event on Saturday to continue the run of good form that he showed at Alexandra Palace. But he's been handed a tough opening round draw at Doncaster Dome this evening when he faces the winner of Sunday's Players Championship event Ronnie Baxter.

The head-to-head record between the two strongly favours Baxter who has 11 wins to Smith's five. However, Smith has won three of the last four including a 6-3 victory for Pieman the last time that the two crossed paths.

Smith's form has been progressive over the past six months and although Baxter is clearly also in very good form there is plenty of value to be had in backing the outsider here at odds of [2.5] over such a short format.

Recommended Bet:
Back Andy Smith to beat Ronnie Baxter @ [2.5]

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