Manchester United v West Brom: Fergie will get a response from players

Manchester United / Soccer Widow / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Valencia could be back for United

"United’s form has dipped since the injury to Antonio Valencia and last Sunday’s 0-3 win away at White Hart Lane flattered the Red Devils."

Soccer Widow crunches the numbers ahead of Manchester United's match against West Brom as the champions bid to bounce back from their Europa League defeat...

Manchester United's demise on Thursday night, accurately predicted by Soccer Widow in the Betfair Germany blog, is probably bad news for West Bromwich Albion, even though they have won their last three Premier League matches, a feat they last performed almost 10-years ago. However, it has never won four Premier League games on the bounce before.

Sir Alex Ferguson has already admitted that his team is struggling to balance the unusual calendar of Thursday-Sunday games, but a backlash must surely follow in the wake of the unexpected 'surrender' to Athletic Bilbao. He will know that United's form has dipped since the injury to Antonio Valencia and last Sunday's 0-3 win away at White Hart Lane flattered the Red Devils.

Speaking of Tottenham, the warning letter received this week by Ferguson from the FA not to talk about potential candidates for the England job (at the bequest of the Lilywhites) has been met with incredulity at Old Trafford. However, this can surely be only mock astonishment as Ferguson's comments are never to be taken lightly. Another set of mind games perhaps and, it is obvious that he would be only too delighted to see one of his strongest managerial rivals 'removed' from the Premier League competition and thrown to the 'Three Lions'.

The bad news for West Bromwich is that Valencia could be back for this game and, as the only 11 previous encounters at Old Trafford in the Premier League era have produced nine United victories and two draws, the statistics are also not exactly in favour of the Midland outfit. However, backing United to win holds no mathematical 'value' as Soccer Widow shows.

Statistics in more detail:

Head-To-Head (Manchester United home, West Bromwich Albion away, 6 matches since 2002, all competitions):
• Full time: Manchester United four wins (67%), two draws (33%); Last six (most recent first): D-H-H-H-D-H
• Half time: Manchester United four wins (67%), two draws (33%); WBA has not scored in the first half of any of these last six matches
• Manchester United clean sheet: three times (50%); WBA no clean sheets in these last six matches
• Both teams scored in three matches (50%) and United only in the other three (50%)
• All six games finished with less than 4.5 goals (100%)
• Goal numbers in these last six matches (most recent first): 4-4-3-4-2-1

Manchester United's last 25 home games in the Premier League
• Full time: 22 wins (88%), one draw (4%), two defeats (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-L-W-W
• Half time: 16 wins (64%), seven draws (28%), two defeats (8%)
• Manchester United scoring and keeping a clean sheet: 12 (48%)
• Both teams scored in 13 matches (52%)
• 17 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (68%)
• Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 3-2-3-5-5-5

West Bromwich Albion's last 25 away games in the Premier League
• Full time: nine wins (36%), six draws (24%), 10 defeats (40%); Last six (most recent first): W-D-W-L-W-W
• Half time: five wins (20%), nine draws (36%), 11 defeats (44%)
• West Bromich Albion clean sheet: once (4%)
• Both teams scored in 17 matches (68%)
• 20 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (80%)
• Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 6-2-3-1-5-3

Summary:

On paper, this game looks likely to be decided in United's favour, although bettors should be wary that the statistics show a win probability of only 65.3%, whilst Betfair's current price of [1.32], calculates the likelihood of victory at 75.8%. These odds are therefore almost 40% 'under-valued' and United should be priced more accurately at 1.53 to win this game.

Value Bet Recommendations:

• Back draw at full-time (odds [5.9], 'true' odds 4.23, value 51.9%, probability: 23.67%)

• Back over 1.5 goals at full-time (odds [1.2], 'true' odds 1.17, value 20%, probability: 67.33%)

• Back under 4.5 goals at full-time (odds [1.27], 'true' odds 1.15, value 80.7%, probability: 87%)

• Dutch-lay half-time correct scores (weighted stakes) on 1-1/2-1/0-1/Any Unquoted
(Combined odds [2.20], combined 'true' odds 6.67, value 303.7%, probability: 85%)

Both Manchesters lost in the Europa League tonight but whereas City are still favourites to progress despite their 1-0 loss in Lisbon, United have it all to do after a 3-2 defeat at home to Athletic Bilbao....

Join Tobias Gourlay to find out whether Spurs can end an 11-year winless streak against United...

The stats are out, the numbers have been crunched and the percentages compared to the odds on the betting markets. What does Soccer Widow recommend for us this week?...

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Premier League Talking Point: Why Fergie still has lots to learn about tact

Premier League / Richard Aikman / 06 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

A law unto himself?

"Ferguson clearly feels that he can bring his own pressure to bear on the appointment of referees by speaking out."

Sir Alex is up to his old tricks - lambasting referees in order to divert attention from his team, trying to influence officials and shunning the media - but Richard Aikman wants to know if the powers will stand up to the Manchester United manager or do sweet FA...

We all know that football managers are biased. They will inevitably view the performances of match officials through one eye, because their livelihood can hinge on the decision of the men in black, or green or whatever colour it is they wear these days.

They certainly don't wear red. Not as far as Arsene Wenger is concerned anyway. The Arsenal manager labeled Anthony Taylor's decision to rule out Andrey Arshavin's goal for a non-existent offside on Saturday as "disgusting" and "disappointing" but at least he had the good grace to say, "What can we do about it? We must take it on the chin". As a result of that decision - and Arsenal's poor finishing - the Gunners are now three points behind Manchester United and out to [3.8] form [2.72] to win the title.

Blackburn boss Steve Kean was also restrained - unlike his players - when discussing the contentious late penalty that condemned his side to a 3-2 defeat at Fulham, admitting that "technically, he [referee Mark Clattenburg] is probably right that there was a bit of contact. But if that happens you would have to give ten penalties a match." As a result of that decision - and Rovers' bad defending - Blackburn are now just two points above the relegation zone and [4.8] to go down. Kean's response was disgruntled, but dignified.

Sir Alex Ferguson, on the other hand has shown no such tact. He is up on his latest FA charge for questioning the integrity of referee Martin Atkinson, after he awarded Chelsea a soft penalty against Manchester United at Stamford Bridge and sent off Nemanja Vidic for repetitive fouling. "You hope you get a strong referee in games like this," said Ferguson. "It was a major game for both clubs. You want a fair referee - or a strong referee, anyway - and we didn't get that. I don't know why he has got the game. I must say, when I saw who the referee was I did fear it. I feared the worst." As a result of Atkinson's display, and United's poor finishing, the Red Devils's odds lengthened to [1.78], though they are now [1.56] following Arsenal's stalemate with Sunderland.

The first thing to say about Ferguson's comments is that he contends that a match like Chelsea v United should be treated differently to any other match, which is a flagrant insult to other clubs. He also clearly feels that he can bring his own pressure to bear on the appointment of referees by speaking out.

Of course, the main reason behind Ferguson's comments was to divert attention away from his side's unexpected defeat - an age-old technique that has become his trademark. He feels that he can get away with it too because he has been slapped on the wrist so many times that he has become a law unto himself.

Ferguson had every right to be frustrated. David Luiz could have been dismissed for his foul on Wayne Rooney, but the 69-year-old's reaction to the foul was risible when you consider that Rooney should not have been playing in the first place after elbowing Wigan's James McCarthy the previous Saturday. The former Aberdeen manager even suggested the incident would result in the press "raising a campaign to get [Rooney] hung or electrocuted" - yet another example of Ferguson pressurising the notoriously weak FA into doing nothing about the incident.

So it will be interesting to see how the FA reacts to Ferguson's decision to appeal his charge for his Atkinson outburst. According to reports, the Scotsman has rejected legal advice to accept the charge - which would have resulted in a three-match touchline ban, starting with today's trip to Anfield. By doing so he could receive an extended suspension for repeat offending and wasting everyone's time.

But Ferguson knows that the FA is loath to alienate him and he has calculated that when the hearing takes place (probably 25 March) his side will have already played Liverpool, Arsenal (FA Cup) and Bolton anyway, by which time they might have built up enough leeway to cope with the absence of their magus from winable games against West Ham (a), Fulham (h), Newcastle (a) and Everton (h).

The next fixture in the calendar after that is Arsenal (h) in the league and it will be interesting to see whether or not the FA stands up to Ferguson by invoking its right to extend his punishment to a five-match ban.

With perfect timing Kenny Dalglish has waded into the debate. "It is impossible for officials not to make mistakes," he said. "But there is a respect campaign in football and I want to know whether we are going to be the only ones who adhere to it." In other words, are you going to act or do sweet FA?

It will be interesting to see what Ferguson does in the unlikely event that the FA does mete out a five-match ban. Maybe he'll refuse to talk to them. After all, he's not talking to the BBC and he's not talking to MUTV. He's probably not even talking to his wife at the moment. But then how will he exert any influence with the hairdryer turned off?

Sir Alex is up to his old tricks - lambasting referees in order to divert attention from his team, trying to influence officials and shunning the media - but Richard Aikman wants to know if the powers will stand up...

Kuyt hat-trick earns Liverpool key win and condemns United to second consecutive defeat. Meanwhile, Wolves and Spurs slug out six goal thriller......

Blackpool have pulled off some shock results this season, but with two of their star performers missing, Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch thinks that Chelsea will prove too strong for The Tangerines. Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.54]....

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Manchester United: Blame it all on Fergie

Premier League / Frank Gregan / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Manager, problem-solver, father figure and all-round legend. We give you Sir Alex...

"We now have University lecturers that earn their living answering questions like that. They'll tell you about global brand awareness, historical trends, the importance of momentum and the balance between ambition and expectation. Nonsense - there's a one word answer to the question- Fergie!"

If you're sick of seeing Manchester United somehow managing to overcome every obstacle put in their way year after year to keep up an incredible level of consistency, there's only one man to blame for it all, says Frank Gregan.

A little over a year ago this column predicted that Manchester United would end the 2009/10 season without a trophy. It didn't come to fruition because United picked up the Carling Cup but that did little to sate the thirst that the United faithful have for trophies.

An eventful year has since past. Manchester City have continued to flex their financial muscle, Tottenham have proved that last season was no flash in the pan and Liverpool under new ownership and management have shown with the purchases of Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez that they are back in business. Chelsea were crowned champions but are enduring a painful run at present. In an attempt to get back on track they secured the most-sought after signature in English football when Fernando Torres put pen to paper, a clear signal that they have no intention of downsizing.

Manchester United's investment in the summer was modest. Javier Hernandez, Chris Smalling and Bebe were all bought with an eye on the future. It could be argued that once again Man Utd's financial plight hampered them in the transfer market with their rivals spending larger amounts on better players.

Since the season kicked off Sir Alex hasn't enjoyed a hassle-free season. Wayne Rooney started the campaign as Public Enemy Number One after England's World Cup debacle and revelations about his private life coupled with persistent injury problems fuelled his petulance. It looked as if it would all end in tears when Rooney's desire to leave Old Trafford became public, particularly when he was linked with a move across the city to Eastlands.

Another massive blow to the Reds was the injury sustained by Antonio Valencia against Rangers in the middle of September. The Ecuadorian is the real deal, a class act who has blossomed since the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo and has become one of United's most influential players. His injury added to Rio Ferdinand and Rooney's ongoing problems, an ageing squad and a bitter resentment towards their American owners meant it was all doom and gloom at the Theatre of Dreams.

Six months down the track and all is rosy in the red part of Manchester. They're top of the Premier League, into the quarter finals of the FA Cup and in great nick after their first leg in the round of 16 in the Champions League. They'll be looking forward to a massive end of season party with a possible treble in the offing. Unbelievable! How do they do it?

We now have University lecturers that earn their living answering questions like that. They'll tell you about global brand awareness, historical trends, the importance of momentum and the balance between ambition and expectation. Nonsense - there's a one word answer to the question- Fergie!

It seems no matter what problem is put before him, the great man rises above it. He is the Kenny Rogers of football, he "knows when to hold 'em, knows when to fold 'em!" In the past he has seen David Beckham walk away, lost the services of the best player in the Premier League when Cristiano Ronaldo headed for warmer climates and it looked certain that he would lose Rooney.

He survived the losses of Beckham and Ronaldo, partly because he was able to bring in very decent replacements (let's not forget Ronaldo came in as Beckham went out) but the loss of the former Everton man during such tough financial times for the club would have been a disaster. There were a lot of United supporters at the time who were saying "let him go", such was Rooney's attitude, form and conduct but the master man-manager somehow sorted the situation out.

It was fitting that the problematic England striker then came up with a wonder goal to win the Manchester derby after his side had been outplayed for most of the game. Once again it left the footballing world asking the same question - 'how do they do it?' Odds of [23.0] are available on them to win all three competitions that they are challenging for and the way they keep somehow getting results suggests it's not beyond them.

It was another case of Glory Glory Man Utd yesterday against Wigan but they have two massive challenges this week with away games against Chelsea on Tuesday and Liverpool on Sunday.Those two games could well decide if, at least as far as the Premier League is concerned, the Reds go marching on on on!

If you're sick of seeing Manchester United somehow managing to overcome every obstacle put in their way year after year to keep up an incredible level of consistency, there's only one man to blame for it all, says Frank Gregan....

Stoke host West Brom on Monday night knowing that a win will give them every chance to challenge for a top six finish. Mike Norman previews the game. Best Bet: Back Stoke at [1.96] to beat West Brom....

West Ham host an in-form Liverpool this Sunday lunchtime but could struggle to break down a resolute Reds defence......

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