Manchester United 
/ Soccer Widow / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Antonio Valencia could be back for United
"United’s form has dipped since the injury to Antonio Valencia and last Sunday’s 0-3 win away at White Hart Lane flattered the Red Devils."
Soccer Widow crunches the numbers ahead of Manchester United's match against West Brom as the champions bid to bounce back from their Europa League defeat...
Manchester United's demise on Thursday night, accurately predicted by Soccer Widow in the Betfair Germany blog, is probably bad news for West Bromwich Albion, even though they have won their last three Premier League matches, a feat they last performed almost 10-years ago. However, it has never won four Premier League games on the bounce before.
Sir Alex Ferguson has already admitted that his team is struggling to balance the unusual calendar of Thursday-Sunday games, but a backlash must surely follow in the wake of the unexpected 'surrender' to Athletic Bilbao. He will know that United's form has dipped since the injury to Antonio Valencia and last Sunday's 0-3 win away at White Hart Lane flattered the Red Devils.
Speaking of Tottenham, the warning letter received this week by Ferguson from the FA not to talk about potential candidates for the England job (at the bequest of the Lilywhites) has been met with incredulity at Old Trafford. However, this can surely be only mock astonishment as Ferguson's comments are never to be taken lightly. Another set of mind games perhaps and, it is obvious that he would be only too delighted to see one of his strongest managerial rivals 'removed' from the Premier League competition and thrown to the 'Three Lions'.
The bad news for West Bromwich is that Valencia could be back for this game and, as the only 11 previous encounters at Old Trafford in the Premier League era have produced nine United victories and two draws, the statistics are also not exactly in favour of the Midland outfit. However, backing United to win holds no mathematical 'value' as Soccer Widow shows.
Statistics in more detail:
Head-To-Head (Manchester United home, West Bromwich Albion away, 6 matches since 2002, all competitions):
• Full time: Manchester United four wins (67%), two draws (33%); Last six (most recent first): D-H-H-H-D-H
• Half time: Manchester United four wins (67%), two draws (33%); WBA has not scored in the first half of any of these last six matches
• Manchester United clean sheet: three times (50%); WBA no clean sheets in these last six matches
• Both teams scored in three matches (50%) and United only in the other three (50%)
• All six games finished with less than 4.5 goals (100%)
• Goal numbers in these last six matches (most recent first): 4-4-3-4-2-1
Manchester United's last 25 home games in the Premier League
• Full time: 22 wins (88%), one draw (4%), two defeats (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-L-W-W
• Half time: 16 wins (64%), seven draws (28%), two defeats (8%)
• Manchester United scoring and keeping a clean sheet: 12 (48%)
• Both teams scored in 13 matches (52%)
• 17 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (68%)
• Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 3-2-3-5-5-5
West Bromwich Albion's last 25 away games in the Premier League
• Full time: nine wins (36%), six draws (24%), 10 defeats (40%); Last six (most recent first): W-D-W-L-W-W
• Half time: five wins (20%), nine draws (36%), 11 defeats (44%)
• West Bromich Albion clean sheet: once (4%)
• Both teams scored in 17 matches (68%)
• 20 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (80%)
• Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 6-2-3-1-5-3
Summary:
On paper, this game looks likely to be decided in United's favour, although bettors should be wary that the statistics show a win probability of only 65.3%, whilst Betfair's current price of [1.32], calculates the likelihood of victory at 75.8%. These odds are therefore almost 40% 'under-valued' and United should be priced more accurately at 1.53 to win this game.
Value Bet Recommendations:
• Back draw at full-time (odds [5.9], 'true' odds 4.23, value 51.9%, probability: 23.67%)
• Back over 1.5 goals at full-time (odds [1.2], 'true' odds 1.17, value 20%, probability: 67.33%)
• Back under 4.5 goals at full-time (odds [1.27], 'true' odds 1.15, value 80.7%, probability: 87%)
• Dutch-lay half-time correct scores (weighted stakes) on 1-1/2-1/0-1/Any Unquoted
(Combined odds [2.20], combined 'true' odds 6.67, value 303.7%, probability: 85%)
Both Manchesters lost in the Europa League tonight but whereas City are still favourites to progress despite their 1-0 loss in Lisbon, United have it all to do after a 3-2 defeat at home to Athletic Bilbao....
Join Tobias Gourlay to find out whether Spurs can end an 11-year winless streak against United...
The stats are out, the numbers have been crunched and the percentages compared to the odds on the betting markets. What does Soccer Widow recommend for us this week?...
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