Find Me A 100 Winner 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Allenby can shine again on a course he loves
"Greens in regulation are at an absolute premium around this layout, and Allenby is usually very reliable in that department, topping those stats on his penultimate start."
Three players who share some important characteristics make Paul's shortlist of big-priced players to follow at Sawgrass
Last year's Players Championship was a heartbreaking affair for this column, with [130.0] pick Robert Allenby trading at odds-on before being reeled in down the stretch. Back then, these 100 winner picks were recommended as win only selections, but had the new trading system been followed, a substantial profit would have been guaranteed long before that frustrating finish.
Allenby once again makes the staking plan, because that performance confirmed long-held suspicions that he is ideally suited to Sawgrass. Greens in regulation are at an absolute premium around this layout, and Allenby is usually very reliable in that department, topping those stats on his penultimate start. Equally top-six finishes at Redstone and Riviera suggest he isn't so far off his best. I see no good reason why he should again be available at [100.0].
The other positive with Allenby is that he's precisely the type of vastly experienced, older player that tends to do well at Sawgrass, due to the emphasis on accuracy and course knowledge, rather than power. Indeed the shortest hitter on the tour, Fred Funk, won this title at the age of 48. Scott Verplank was tied for second on that occasion in 2005, and if recent evidence is a guide, remains just as competitive now as he was then. Verplank could be considered unlucky to have run into a peak-form Mickelson when runner-up at Redstone, and also made the top-ten on another Pete Dye layout last time at the Heritage.
I can't make a similar argument for my third pick on recent form, but Stephen Ames has such strong Sawgrass credentials that odds of [250.0] are simply too big to ignore. Ames won this title by six shots in 2006, and was one of the unluckiest ever losers in 2002, when finishing second to [500.0] rag Craig Perks who seemingly holed everything. The Canadian also made the top-five in 2008, again confirming his liking for this accuracy test. Granted, he hasn't set this year's PGA Tour alight, but Ames has at least managed a top-three in Puerto Rico, and ranked inside the top-ten for greens in regulation on his penultimate start, finishing mid-division at the Heritage.
The plan is to lay out a total of 5 units, and then place two lay orders on each player at [12.0] and [3.0], ensuring that we at least double our money if any single lay target is hit.
Recommended Bets
2.5 units Robert Allenby @ [100.0]
1.5 units Scott Verplank @ [160.0]
1 unit Stephen Ames @ [250.0]
Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [12.0]
Place order to lay each player 20 units @ [3.0]
Updated 2011 Stats: -19.5 units
Paul Krishnamurty discusses the merits of trading on players who have the ability to get in front but rarely finish the job. This week he's backing one such man in Spain......
Paul Krishnamurty believes the layers are offering silly odds on a certain Ryder Cup star......
A handful of Masters notables are making the long trip to Malaysia but their presence only serves to inflate the prices of others, giving Paul Krishnamurty reason to back a trio of three-figure competitors...
