Men's US Open Betting: Djokovic has the draw but Federer the man to beat

"As far as betting strategy is concerned the outright market offers little in the way of real value with Djokovic having a very obvious favourites chance, but I can’t be on him at 2.68/5 at the moment and Federer is a better option at 3.7511/4."

Sean Calvert discusses the best betting angles ahead of the season's final major, and he believes Roger Federer is slightly better value than Novak Djokovic to lift the title...

The draw has been made for the final major of the year in what looks set to be a fascinating 2012 US Open Championship.

With Rafa Nadal ruling himself out due to a knee injury the draw has opened up and Britain's Andy Murray finds himself in the same half as a certain Swiss player, while Novak Djokovic's price has come in as news of his comfortable draw broke.

Djokovic is down to a best priced 2.68/5 to retain his Men's Singles title and with Juan Martin Del Potro the only one looking capable of defeating him on a hard court in the bottom half of the draw, the money has come in for Nole.

Rafa's absence has left a quarter in which I could make a case for about half a dozen players to make the semi finals, but whether they would be a match for Djokovic in the last four is questionable at best.

But those looking for big value will have their eyes firmly on that section of the draw and Tommy Haas at 330.0329/1, Janko Tipsarevic at 210.0209/1, John Isner at 95.094/1, David Ferrer at 75.074/1 and Richard Gasquet at 440.0439/1 will all attract those seeking a big shock in Djokovic's section.

One slip up or an injury/illness for the number two seed would blow the bottom half wide open and that's what would be required for any of the above to figure, but on the evidence of Cincinnati Nole is not at his best and shocks do happen in majors every now and then as Rafa found out at Wimbledon.

The top half looks the tougher and world number one Roger Federer must overcome the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Mardy Fish or Gilles Simon before thinking about a potential quarter final with Tomas Berdych.

But Berdych has never done well in New York and with the Czech currently struggling for form there's a great chance for one of Sam Querrey, Nico Almagro, Radek Stepanek or Florian Mayer to make a slam quarter final.

Murray's quest for a first major at his favourite Slam sees him take on former US and now Russian player Alex Bogomolov Jr, who will no doubt not have the New York crowd on his side after turning his back on America.

Bogomolov has stunned Murray before on a hard court, but his form in 2012 has been terrible and the Scot's first tough match on paper will probably materialise in round four with Milos Raonic his likely opponent.

Then a quarter final with probably Jo Wilfried Tsonga, or perhaps Kei Nishikori or Marin Cilic, as Tsonga as only once made the last eight in New York, which is a surprisingly poor return in conditions that should suit him.

Federer's path to that likely semi final with Murray starts with a hilarious first round encounter with the hapless Donald Young, who's just won his first match after 17 straight losses on tour.

But I expect Murray and Federer to come through to meet in New York for the first time since the 2008 final and that could be the match of the tournament if it happens.

As for the defending champion, his first round is a simple one against Italian clay courter Paolo Lorenzi, followed by a potential fourth round clash with Alex Dolgopolov, which would be a repeat of 12 months ago when they played out an entertaining 16-14 first set tie break.

For him the key clash would be against Del Potro in the quarters, but punters backing Delpo are taking a big chance that his injured left wrist will stand up to the rigours of five set tournament play - and that's without even considering the rest of his injury prone body.

And Delpo has a fascinating opening round against fellow Argentine, David Nalbandian, who he doesn't get on with at all, so that will be one to watch for potential fireworks.

As far as betting strategy is concerned the outright market offers little in the way of real value with Djokovic having a very obvious favourites chance, but I can't be on him at 2.68/5 at the moment and Federer is a better option at 3.7511/4.

Murray also has an outstanding chance, but at 5.04/1 he's a little on the short side considering his route is the toughest, so the best play is to back Federer and invest in one or two of the huge priced players in that wide open third section of the draw on a back to lay basis.

Recommended Bets

Back Roger Federer at 3.7511/4
Back to lay Janko Tipsarevic at 210.0209/1
Back to lay John Isner at 95.094/1
Back to lay Tommy Haas at 330.0329/1

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Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Djokovic faces test as Berd takes off

Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

Sean Calvert explains why he believes Andy Murray's conqueror can cause the world number one a few problems in today's semi-final. Meanwhile, Rafa should win comfortably against Gilles Simon...

Friday was another good day at the Monte Carlo Masters after a tough start to the week, as both of the wagers I suggested were winners.

Andy Murray's match went the way I predicted - to a decider - and it was Tomas Berdych who took a deserved win after being the more forceful of the two players on the day.

It was one of those frustrating displays from Murray, who forced Sky commentator, Barry Millns, into several apologies as the expletives flew with regularity from the Scot's mouth in front of a stern faced Ivan Lendl.

And Gilles Simon's straight sets win over a misfiring Jo-Wilfried Tsonga brought further reward to those who were on the 2.56/4 available on Simon pre-match.

Saturday is semi-finals day and first up is Novak Djokovic versus Berdych and I think if there is ever a time at the moment to take the world number one on it could be now.

His performance against Robin Haase on Friday was patchy and he admitted that "it's tough to play tennis with the way I feel" after hearing of the passing of his grandfather a few days ago.

The other view is that he'll want to go on and win this event and dedicate it to his relative, so he may well be putting everything into the next couple of days.

So, there's his emotional state to consider as well as the usual form and statistics, which tell us that Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

I've always thought that Berdych should be a real contender on clay, but it's hard to believe in him completely with his often erratic and frustrating displays.

He certainly has it in him to beat Djokovic today and the 4.1n/a is a tempting price based on the Czech's best form and the emotional question mark over Nole.

The Berdman was excellent against Murray, but I don't trust him to produce back-to-back performances and consequently I think the best play in this one is to lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6.

The other bet to consider in my view is the 4.3100/30 about Djokovic taking this one by two sets to one, as I think the Serb will have the odd dip and Berdych should be able to cash in - at least long enough to take a set.

The other semi-final features Rafa Nadal taking on Gilles Simon for the sixth time, with Rafa leading 4-1 overall and this will also be their first meeting on clay.

This should be pretty much a perfect match-up for Rafa, who won't be coughing up anywhere near as many unforced errors as Tsonga did against Simon on Friday.

The Frenchman is going to have to play a much more aggressive game than he's comfortable with to have a chance today, although Nadal hasn't been at his best this week.

Rafa is around 1.071/14 to win, which is far too short considering the knees are still troubling him and the only bet I would consider in this is taking Simon on the handicap with a 5.5 games start at around 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet
Lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6

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Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Djokovic can edge Nadal in dream final

The bet that appeals most is in the total games market where the mark is 22.5 games. I will be on overs at around 2.021/1.

Sean Calvert followers prospered on Saturday so can our man provide more Monte Carlo moolah as the King of Clay meets the world number one in Sunday's final?

It was another good day at the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday, as my recommended bet and my other advice were successful on semi finals day.

As soon as Tomas Berdych took the first set against Novak Djokovic we were in the money and hopefully a few were on the 2-1 Djokovic win and Gilles Simon +5.5 on the handicap as well.

So, Sunday brings the final that most would have wanted to see, which is Djokovic and Rafa Nadal facing off for the first time on clay since Rome last year.

Nole won that day and I must say that I'm slightly surprised that the market has Rafa as the 1.784/5 favourite for this one.

Neither player has been at their best in this tournament so far - Djokovic understandably so in the circumstances - but the world number one has still won their last seven matches on the bounce and should probably be the favourite in my eyes.

I would imagine that Nole's tactics of hammering the Nadal two-handed backhand and hitting as hard as he can to the Spaniard's forehand to open up the weaker backhand wing will be the same today and unless Nadal goes for his shots a bit more then the result should be the same. In theory.

Rafa needs to serve at his US Open 2010 best and vary his play more than he has done in their recent meetings to take the win today and I'm not sure he's at that level just at the moment.

He still seems to be troubled by his knees and I certainly won't be touching the 1.784/5 about a Nadal win at the outset.

Of course, there are still question marks lingering over Djokovic after what has doubtless been a tough week for him on and off the court and with neither player at their peak I think the tactic in this one is to look at the alternative markets to the straight match odds.

The one that appeals most to me today is the total games market where the mark is 22.5 games and I will be on the overs at around 2.021/1.

I'm expecting highs and lows from both players this afternoon - particularly Djokovic - and I have a feeling that this one will go to a decider.

A riskier play would be to back Djokovic 2-1 at around 4.94/1 and trade in-play from there, but I'll be baking the overs and hoping that the Monte Carlo crowd will be treated to a three set classic.

Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games at 2.021/1

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Dubai Tennis Championships: Can Murray upset Djokovic bros?

Events / Sean Calvert / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Andy prevail in Dubai?

"Djokovic is the favourite to take a fourth straight Dubai title and he’s not an awful price at around [2.38], but it’s worth taking a chance with Murray this week at palatable [8.0]."

It's a family affair in Dubai this week for the world number one, but Sean Calvert fancies a wager on Andy Murray at more attractive odds...

We were unlucky with our bet on Milos Raonic in Memphis last week, but as the Canadian reached the final, he was available to lay at [1.33] from the initial [3.5].

The ATP Tour moves on to Dubai, Acapulco and Delray Beach this week, with the world's top stars drawn to the $1.7 million prize pot on offer at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.

Shamelessly, the tournament has given wildcards to three-time defending champion, Novak Djokovic's brother Marco and Victoria Azarenka's boyfriend Sergei Bubka.

For the record, Marco Djokovic is ranked 867 in the world and has been playing with little success in Futures events in Turkey lately, while Bubka is the world number 158 and has one Challenger title to his name from back in 2009.

So, instead of handing the valuable wild cards to deserving causes, the tournament has gone for the 'it's not what you know but who you know' option and given them to friends and family of the male and female world number ones.

The draw has paired Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Janko Tipsarevic and Tomas Berdych together in the top half, along with Nikolay Davydenko and Ivan Ljubicic.

The bottom half sees Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mardy Fish, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, and Alexandr Dolgopolov as the main contenders.

Unsurprisingly, Novak Djokovic is the favourite to take a fourth straight Dubai title and he's not an awful price at around [2.38], but it's worth taking a chance with Murray this week at more palatable [8.0].

The Scot normally indulges in his traditional post-Melbourne malaise at this time of the year, but with Ivan Lendl looking on, Murray is more likely to make a fist of this event than he has done in the last few years.

Two quarter-final exits have been Murray's best showings here, but he'll surely put in a better effort this time to show not just Lendl, but everyone else as well, that he's edging closer to the top three after his Melbourne performances.

He pushed Nole very close in their Australian Open semi and he leads the world number one 4-2 in matches on outdoor hard-courts over the best of three sets.

A concern for the Scot would be the likely match he faces against Tomas Berdych in the last eight here this week.

Murray hasn't beaten the Czech since 2005 and for my money, Berdych is a decent long shot this week at around the [29] mark.

The Berdman has been playing well so far in 2012 with a win in Montpelier and a semi-final in Rotterdam to add to his Australian Open effort. He reached the semi-finals here last year before retiring against Djokovic in what was a tight match and he could go close again this time.

The only other player with chances in the top half of the draw is Tipsarevic, who is priced up this week at around the [50.0] mark, but it's hard to see him beating Djokovic, Murray/Berdych and then probably Federer in consecutive matches.

Tipsy hasn't been in the best touch this year either and was thrashed by Gasquet in Melbourne and beaten in Marseille by Michael Llodra last week. In the bottom half, I expect Federer to be the man to reach the final, as he has a fairly straightforward looking quarter, with the inconsistent Fish perhaps an obstacle before a likely semi-final against either Del Potro or Tsonga.

Delpo will surely be a touch jaded after two finals in two weeks and I can't see him busting a gut here with Indian Wells just around the corner. In any case, Federer has his number at the moment.

Tsonga looks a better prospect for semi final material, but the big Frenchman hasn't kicked on from his fine end to 2011 and he has something to prove this week. To sum up then, Djokovic is the obvious choice, but at a bigger price I'll take a chance on Murray with a small saver on Berdych.

If you fancy a real outsiders shot this week, consider Ernests Gulbis, who is around [22.0] to win at Delray Beach. Ernie has no form whatsoever with a stack of first round losses to his name, but he came here in 2010 with similar form and won it.

On the basis that he might well enjoy this event more than most, and the fact that he has a very handy draw in the bottom half, he's worth thinking about this week.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray at around [8.0]

Long shot
Berdych at around [29.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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Australian Open Results: Djokovic edges out Murray in a thriller

Australian Open Betting / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brothers in arms. Novak Djokovic embraces Andy Murray after a monumental effort by both players.

In what was surely the match of the tournament, Novak Djokovic came out on top against Andy Murray over five sets. Rafael Nadal awaits him in the final.

The wait continues for a British Grand Slam winner after Andy Murray was knocked out at the semi-final stage of the Australian Open earlier today by Novak Djokovic.

In what was arguably the match of the tournament, Murray and the world number one toiled for just short of five hours in a see-saw match that saw Djokovic go one set up, Murray winning the next two, the Serbian winning the fourth with ease and breaking the Scot at 6-5 to complete a memorable 6-3 3-6 6-7 (4-7) 6-1 7-5 win.

Murray will feel he wasted opportunities to knock out the pre-tournament favourite, who actually appeared the more tired of the two as the game wore on. But the man they call the 'Serbinator' didn't win three Slams last year by giving up when he was behind or not coming out on top on the big-pressure points. He traded at a high of [2.88] to win the match when 2-1 down in sets. A 3-2 win for the number one seed traded at [19.0] on Betfair.

For Murray, this match, albeit one that ended in defeat, will give him belief that he can beat the likes of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the remaining Slams of the year. He played a more aggressive brand of tennis that pushed his opponent all the way, a far cry from the ultra-defensive game where he's waited for the man on the other side of the net to make mistakes, tactics that he's been guilty of in the past.

For just short of five hours the Melbourne crowd enjoyed one of the great matches of recent years but they won't have enjoyed it as much as Rafael Nadal. The French Open champion qualified for the final yesterday after a four sets win over Roger Federer and in addition to having the extra day's rest anyway, will have watched with glee as Djokovic pushed his body to the limit and will surely go into Sunday's final as the more fatigued of the two.

Yet despite that, it is the Serb who will start as the [1.72] favourite with Nadal [2.34], almost exactly the same price he was pre-match to beat Federer.

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Rome Masters Tips: Who will win Nadal v Djokovic part IV?

Events / Sean Calvert / 15 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Rafa avenge last week's final defeat?

"Djokovic will be exhausted now after a three-hour stint against Murray and what he doesn’t need the day after is a match with Rafa Nadal."

The two best players in the world meet today for their fourth final since March with the Spaniard favoured to end the Serbian's phenomenal run - but does Sean Calvert share that view?

I've said many times that you can never tell which Andy Murray is likely to turn up on a tennis court and never was that more clearly illustrated than at the Foro Italico on Saturday night.

The error ridden Scot was awful in the first set against Novak Djokovic before coming back to serve for the match and then faltering again to move up another notch on the list of 'Great British Losers'.

If Djokovic wasn't tired before the semi-final - and he was - he'll be exhausted now after a three-hour stint against Murray and what he doesn't need the day after is a match with Rafa Nadal.

That's exactly what he's got though and we have the final that I predicted in my tournament preview.

In that preview I advised backing Rafa and I won't be changing my mind today. He'll be the fresher, the fitter, and the more motivated tennis player after losing to Nole in Madrid last week.

The pair are meeting for the fourth time since March after finals at Indian Wells, Miami and the Spanish capital, with the Serb winning all three of course in his amazing unbeaten start to 2011.

The layers reckon that the world number one will end that run today though, as he's been put in at around [1.5] to claim his sixth Rome Masters title.

A key factor in today's clash will be the slower conditions that Rafa loves, which should mean that far less of Djokovic's cross court backhand winners to the Nadal forehand will get past the Rafa defences.

Another one is the lack of free points on serve for either player, meaning more punishing rallies. The last time these two met in the final in Rome in 2009 there were no aces in the match, so if Djokovic is going to win this it will cost him physically.

I hope this match won't be spoiled by fatigue, but there is a good chance that Rafa could finish this one early after a tight first set, so there may some play in backing Nadal with a deficit in the handicap market.

The Spaniard is around [2.28] to win this two sets to love, which is another likely outcome, but as Nole has forgotten how to lose this year, it could be a risky play.

For me, the safest wager in the Rome Masters final 2011 is a Nadal outright win at around [1.5].

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal at [1.5]

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