The bet that appeals most is in the total games market where the mark is 22.5 games. I will be on overs at around 2.021/1.
Sean Calvert followers prospered on Saturday so can our man provide more Monte Carlo moolah as the King of Clay meets the world number one in Sunday's final?
It was another good day at the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday, as my recommended bet and my other advice were successful on semi finals day.
As soon as Tomas Berdych took the first set against Novak Djokovic we were in the money and hopefully a few were on the 2-1 Djokovic win and Gilles Simon +5.5 on the handicap as well.
So, Sunday brings the final that most would have wanted to see, which is Djokovic and Rafa Nadal facing off for the first time on clay since Rome last year.
Nole won that day and I must say that I'm slightly surprised that the market has Rafa as the 1.784/5 favourite for this one.
Neither player has been at their best in this tournament so far - Djokovic understandably so in the circumstances - but the world number one has still won their last seven matches on the bounce and should probably be the favourite in my eyes.
I would imagine that Nole's tactics of hammering the Nadal two-handed backhand and hitting as hard as he can to the Spaniard's forehand to open up the weaker backhand wing will be the same today and unless Nadal goes for his shots a bit more then the result should be the same. In theory.
Rafa needs to serve at his US Open 2010 best and vary his play more than he has done in their recent meetings to take the win today and I'm not sure he's at that level just at the moment.
He still seems to be troubled by his knees and I certainly won't be touching the 1.784/5 about a Nadal win at the outset.
Of course, there are still question marks lingering over Djokovic after what has doubtless been a tough week for him on and off the court and with neither player at their peak I think the tactic in this one is to look at the alternative markets to the straight match odds.
The one that appeals most to me today is the total games market where the mark is 22.5 games and I will be on the overs at around 2.021/1.
I'm expecting highs and lows from both players this afternoon - particularly Djokovic - and I have a feeling that this one will go to a decider.
A riskier play would be to back Djokovic 2-1 at around 4.94/1 and trade in-play from there, but I'll be baking the overs and hoping that the Monte Carlo crowd will be treated to a three set classic.
Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games at 2.021/1
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