"As far as betting strategy is concerned the outright market offers little in the way of real value with Djokovic having a very obvious favourites chance, but I can’t be on him at 2.68/5 at the moment and Federer is a better option at 3.7511/4."
Sean Calvert discusses the best betting angles ahead of the season's final major, and he believes Roger Federer is slightly better value than Novak Djokovic to lift the title...
The draw has been made for the final major of the year in what looks set to be a fascinating 2012 US Open Championship.
With Rafa Nadal ruling himself out due to a knee injury the draw has opened up and Britain's Andy Murray finds himself in the same half as a certain Swiss player, while Novak Djokovic's price has come in as news of his comfortable draw broke.
Djokovic is down to a best priced 2.68/5 to retain his Men's Singles title and with Juan Martin Del Potro the only one looking capable of defeating him on a hard court in the bottom half of the draw, the money has come in for Nole.
Rafa's absence has left a quarter in which I could make a case for about half a dozen players to make the semi finals, but whether they would be a match for Djokovic in the last four is questionable at best.
But those looking for big value will have their eyes firmly on that section of the draw and Tommy Haas at 330.0329/1, Janko Tipsarevic at 210.0209/1, John Isner at 95.094/1, David Ferrer at 75.074/1 and Richard Gasquet at 440.0439/1 will all attract those seeking a big shock in Djokovic's section.
One slip up or an injury/illness for the number two seed would blow the bottom half wide open and that's what would be required for any of the above to figure, but on the evidence of Cincinnati Nole is not at his best and shocks do happen in majors every now and then as Rafa found out at Wimbledon.
The top half looks the tougher and world number one Roger Federer must overcome the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Mardy Fish or Gilles Simon before thinking about a potential quarter final with Tomas Berdych.
But Berdych has never done well in New York and with the Czech currently struggling for form there's a great chance for one of Sam Querrey, Nico Almagro, Radek Stepanek or Florian Mayer to make a slam quarter final.
Murray's quest for a first major at his favourite Slam sees him take on former US and now Russian player Alex Bogomolov Jr, who will no doubt not have the New York crowd on his side after turning his back on America.
Bogomolov has stunned Murray before on a hard court, but his form in 2012 has been terrible and the Scot's first tough match on paper will probably materialise in round four with Milos Raonic his likely opponent.
Then a quarter final with probably Jo Wilfried Tsonga, or perhaps Kei Nishikori or Marin Cilic, as Tsonga as only once made the last eight in New York, which is a surprisingly poor return in conditions that should suit him.
Federer's path to that likely semi final with Murray starts with a hilarious first round encounter with the hapless Donald Young, who's just won his first match after 17 straight losses on tour.
But I expect Murray and Federer to come through to meet in New York for the first time since the 2008 final and that could be the match of the tournament if it happens.
As for the defending champion, his first round is a simple one against Italian clay courter Paolo Lorenzi, followed by a potential fourth round clash with Alex Dolgopolov, which would be a repeat of 12 months ago when they played out an entertaining 16-14 first set tie break.
For him the key clash would be against Del Potro in the quarters, but punters backing Delpo are taking a big chance that his injured left wrist will stand up to the rigours of five set tournament play - and that's without even considering the rest of his injury prone body.
And Delpo has a fascinating opening round against fellow Argentine, David Nalbandian, who he doesn't get on with at all, so that will be one to watch for potential fireworks.
As far as betting strategy is concerned the outright market offers little in the way of real value with Djokovic having a very obvious favourites chance, but I can't be on him at 2.68/5 at the moment and Federer is a better option at 3.7511/4.
Murray also has an outstanding chance, but at 5.04/1 he's a little on the short side considering his route is the toughest, so the best play is to back Federer and invest in one or two of the huge priced players in that wide open third section of the draw on a back to lay basis.
Recommended Bets
Back Roger Federer at 3.7511/4
Back to lay Janko Tipsarevic at 210.0209/1
Back to lay John Isner at 95.094/1
Back to lay Tommy Haas at 330.0329/1
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