Millwall v Wigan: Lions bite no problems for resurgent Latics

"Millwall are 4.67/2 to win the game with The Draw at 3.9n/a, but on current form, ability, and the stats it's impossible to select anything other than a Wigan win."

Back Wigan to beat Millwall @ 1.8810/11

One of the prizes for winning this FA Cup semi-final might not be too appealing, but the other one certainly is and Mike Norman believes Wigan will be the team celebrating...

Millwall v Wigan
Saturday 17:15, live on ESPN

Arguably the worst prize in football awaits the winner of this weekend's first FA Cup semi-final.

No, I'm not talking about a return to Wembley to contest the oldest cup competition in the world against either Chelsea or Manchester City; which is obviously a fantastic reward. I'm talking of course about qualification to the Europa League; in my opinion the worst competition in football.

Everything about the Europa League is wrong; Thursday night football, regular Sunday afternoon domestic football, the format, Champions League clubs entering at a later stage etc. It's awful.

Not that any of this will be entering the minds of anyone - barring the supporters - connected with the Latics or the Lions on Saturday afternoon. Both sets of players will simply be concentrating on trying to reach a major Wembley cup final for the first time in their club's history, and with it the chance to lift some silverware.

Of course, these two clubs have played in major cup finals before, staged at the Millennium Stadium however, and they did contest a Wembley cup final between each other in 1999, Wigan emerging 1-0 victors to lift the Football League Trophy - far from being labelled a major Wembley cup final.

Match Odds

As cup competitions progress it's inevitable that upsets become less likely and Andrew Atherley details here perfectly the task facing Millwall this weekend.

Since the Premier League era began, seven times a club from the top-flight has faced a Championship side in the semi-final of the FA Cup, and the outcome after 90 minutes has been six wins and a draw for the 'bigger' club. On this stat alone Wigan look to hold a great chance of winning the match at odds of 1.8810/11.

Opta also highlight a significant stat counting against the Lions. Millwall have won just one of their last 13 clashes against top-flight opposition in the FA Cup, and that came against a bang out-of-form Aston Villa side earlier this season.

Current form also suggests Wigan hold the advantage. They are fighting for their lives in the Premier League, though three wins and a draw from their last five games has given them a chance to survive. In the middle of that good league run Roberto Martinez's men went to Goodison Park and produced one of the performances of the season to beat Everton 3-0. They'll want to keep the momentum going here.

Kenny Jackett's Millwall lost at home to relegation-threatened Sheffield Wednesday in midweek meaning it's three Championship games without a win, and while this recent form can be attributed to having one eye on this game, it will take a huge performance to get the better of Wigan.

Millwall are 4.67/2 to win the game with The Draw at 3.9n/a, but on current form, ability, and the stats it's impossible to select anything other than a Wigan win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Cup semi-finals/finals tend to be tense affairs with the initial emphasis being on not losing rather than trying to win, and I expect this encounter to be no different.

Millwall will line-up defensively-minded with four at the back, and Liam Trotter - if fit - anchoring the midfield. They'll aim to keep Wigan at bay and it will probably take a while for the Premier League outfit to find their stride and creat some chances.

Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at 1.910/11 and the way I expect the game to go I think that is worth a decent wager with a view to laying off later in the game if it starts to open up. Obviously an early goal will be a negative, but I certainly don't envisage a high-scoring encounter.

First Goalscorer

I fancy a Wigan victory in a low-scoring game, so would much rather have a wager in the First Goalscorer market as opposed to the To Score market as it could be that just one goal settles this tie.

Arouna Kone has been in terrific form of late with six goals in his last seven league and cup games and is a worthy favourite at 6.86/1, but at slightly bigger odds a chance is taken on Jordi Gomez (8.88/1). The Spaniard has started all five of Wigan's FA Cup games this season, scoring three goals, and looked really impressive against Everton in the last round.

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Back Wigan to beat Millwall @ 1.8810/11
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.910/11

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US Masters Betting: Is it time to back resurgent Woods for the Masters?

"12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time."

After a stunning victory at Doral, Tiger Woods is all the rage with punters to land a fifth US Masters title next month. The odds are falling fast, but Paul Krishnamurty argues there's still plenty of way to go...

Its that special time of the punting year again, and I don't just mean the Cheltenham Festival. With less than a month before the season's first major, serious golf punters are trying to get ahead of the game by grabbing the early US Masters value. There is always trading mileage in predicting which way the market will move about each player as interest heightens.

Normally that would involve finding big-priced candidates likely to be gambled down, especially if they're fancied to perform well in the few events before Augusta. This time, however, the market dynamics may well result in most of the field drifting out as confidence builds behind the favourite.

Numerous thoughts whizzed around my brain over the weekend, watching Tiger Woods win his 17th WGC title. First, there was the most obvious cliche that form is temporary while class is permanent. On a more personal note, it was hard not to berate myself for not sticking to my own golden rules. Last year I'd successfully followed a plan to ignore Tiger outside his favourite events. Last month I abandoned it with disastrous effect at his second home, Torrey Pines. Having missed that boat, I couldn't bring myself to back him at Doral, even at tempting double-figure odds.

Then on Friday afternoon, ahead of the second round, I had a conversation with my esteemed colleague Steve Rawlings about the merits of his in-running bet on Tiger. I disagreed with him, citing numerous failures in contention from the post-scandal Tiger. Moreover, I just couldn't get poor performances at the World Matchplay, Abu Dhabi and Honda Classic out of my head. Needless to say, Steve was spectacularly right and I was wrong!

Of course, rather than cry over spilt milk, the plan must be to move forward and learn the lesson. I felt Tiger's performance at Doral may well have been his best and was certainly his most significant display since his personal life and career unravelled in 2009. He looked his old self, without weaknesses in any department.  Clearly at the very least the rules of last season should still apply.

Therefore, the next step is to restate which those favoured tracks and events are. Augusta must be on the shortlist, although in fairness I wouldn't bracket it with Torrey Pines, Firestone or St Andrews as courses where a Woods playing at 75% of his best is basically unbeatable. After all, if that were the case, he would have won there more recently than 2005. Nevertheless Tiger's Masters record is pretty awesome, winning four times and registering ten top-five finishes. Significantly, he didn't need to be anywhere near his best to make the top-six in every renewal between 2006 and 2011.

One course which must be listed alongside the aforementioned of ideal layouts is the one place where we'll see him before now and the Masters. Even last year, despite struggling to find form most weeks, Tiger landed a seventh title at Bay Hill, finishing seven shots ahead of third place. On all that historical evidence and last week's Doral form, Woods must be considered a good thing for next week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

If and when he wins an eighth title there, expect a further plunge on Tiger's odds for Augusta. In recent days, his Masters odds have shortened from 10.09/1 to 6.411/2 and there is plenty of way to go. 12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time. 

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Back Tiger Woods @ 6.411/2 to win the US Masters 

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Weekend Football Round-up: Chelsea resurgent under DiMatteo

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can DiMatteo's Chelsea overcome Manchester City?

"Di Matteo will take his side to The Etihad Stadium on Wednesday full of confidence and they could be value at [4.4] to win there."

It's been a traumatic weekend and Ralph Ellis, like everybody else, is thinking about Fabrice Muamba and his family. Here, our man considers results in the FA Cup and Premier League...

I'm sure all the Betfair community will send their thoughts to Fabrice Muamba and his family. Everyone who cares for football has been united by their concern.

Events away from White Hart Lane got me thinking about how the recipe for success at one club can produce failure at another. Just look at Chelsea and Wolves.

Meanwhile, It is four games since Roman Abramovich reacted to a defeat by West Bromwich Albion and sent Andre Villas Boas out the exit door - and the decision to promote his assistant Roberto Di Matteo has transformed the place. Four wins, including the dramatic turnaround in the Champions League against Napoli, have restored morale and confidence. Goodness me, he's even got Fernando Torres scoring goals again.

Wolves owner Steve Morgan must be looking at that and wondering why. He also took action after losing to Albion and ended up promoting the number two. But Terry Connor's four games in charge at Molineux have lurched from one disaster to another. And a 5-0 thrashing by Manchester United yesterday has now dumped them firmly at the bottom of the table.

Wolves are now [1.26] relegation favourites and [2.34] to finish up rock bottom(http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103375374&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013). And this week will tell us much about the character of Morgan, who made his money building houses and had planned to build his football club with the same care. Will he hold his nerve and stick by his decision to promote Connor? Or will he let himself be rushed into going back to the short list of potential managers he spoke to just a few weeks ago.

There is a sense around Molineux that the players are a bit too comfortable under Connor's control. They like him, they enjoy his training sessions. But they have let him down, failing to properly defend set pieces - and Ronald Zubar's reckless two tackles to get an early red card yesterday was a symptom of a lack of concentration. It's the sort of thing Steve Bruce would focus on if the owner went back to him - and the former Sunderland manager is now just [4.0] in the next Wolves manager market. Betfair's punters doubt Connor will survive. He was appointed until the end of the season but must still be in charge when they play Manchester City on April 22 for the market to pay out. He is now [2.1] to lay.

The big issue at the bottom will be how many points are needed to avoid relegation. Last year, Birmingham went down with 39, but it looks like a much smaller total will be needed this time. Quite possibly Norwich on 36 points already have enough, despite losing to a single goal at Newcastle yesterday.

Albion manager Roy Hodgson reckoned a couple of weeks ago that his side were already safe with 32, so he would have seen Paul Scharner's equaliser to earn a 1-1 draw at Wigan as extra insurance. The result still lifted the Latics off the foot of the table and the track record of last season, when Roberto Martinez conjured two wins in their final two games, would make me nervous about backing them at [1.31] to go down.
Swansea are certainly safe after a 3-0 win at Fulham, and those who backed them at anything up to [7.2] to be the top promoted team can safely turn the market green - their price now is [1.25].

The better that Swansea do, the more you wonder whether Abramovich got the wrong former Mourinho aide when he appointed Villas Boas rather than ex-reserve coach and now Swansea boss Brendan Rodgers. But at least the appointment of Di Matteo is working, and that could be good news for Manchester United, now [1.49] favourites in the title race having built a four point lead and brought their goal difference to within three of Manchester City at the same time. Di Matteo will take his side to The Etihad Stadium on Wednesday full of confidence and they could be value at [4.4] to win there.

Despite their upturn Chelsea at [3.6] aren't quite favourites to win the FA Cup. That place belongs to [3.55] Liverpool as the only other side definitely in the semi-finals following a 2-1 win over Stoke in which Stewart Downing scored only his second goal of the season. Sunderland, a side who definitely did benefit from changing manager when Martin O'Neill arrived, still look value at [10] after earning a replay from a difficult tie at Everton.

Five-star United [1.49] for the title after destroying new relegation favourites Wolves...

Carlos Tevez is due to return to Premier League action against Chelsea - something we never thought would happen during the Argentinean's self-imposed strike - and it's a sign that City are getting desperate in the title race, says Richard...

There were just two games in the Premier League today with Wigan held by West Brom and Swansea trouncing Fulham. Joe Dyer has the betting headlines from both matches...

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Premier League Results: Resurgent Rooney fires United closer to title

Premier League / Joe Dyer / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney was finally among the scorers

"The title is surely destined for United after Old Trafford were treated to the Wayne Rooney show for the first time in a long time. "

In-running drama aplenty as leading teams all win - but find very different ways to do it

A titanic night at the top of the table ended in wins for Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea - but only one of them did it the easy way. Meanwhile, a 2-2 draw did little for either West Brom or Wigan at the other end of the league.

The title is surely destined for United after Old Trafford were treated to the Wayne Rooney show for the first time in a long time. The England star scored in the first minute and on the cusp of halftime to make it easy for United who are now [1.69] to end up top of the pile. Darren Bent retaliated for Aston Villa, but a Nemanja Vidic rocket put the home team back in the comfort zone.

The Reds' pursuers in the title race - Arsenal and Chelsea - both went behind in their fixtures but came back to keep themselves just about in touch with the leaders.

Sunderland scored early on at the Stadium of Light but that only seemed to wind Chelsea up. The champions struck back to take a 2-1 lead only to be pegged back again. It stayed that way until the second half when the Blues were able to pull away thanks to John Terry and a late Nicolas Anelka effort, the 4-2 final score traded at [120.0].

At the Emirates, Arsenal went behind to an early Louis Saha effort and laboured in their attempts to overhaul the Toffees, having to wait until the 70th minute for an equaliser and the 75th for a winner. The Gunners traded at [8.0] for the win and are [4.3] for the title.

There was yet more drama at the Hawthorns where West Brom touched [1.28] when taking an early lead only to concede twice to Wigan, who were matched at [1.4]. Of course it couldn't end that way and the draw was backed at [6.6] before the Baggies scored a late goal of their own.

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