Millwall v Wigan: Lions bite no problems for resurgent Latics

"Millwall are 4.67/2 to win the game with The Draw at 3.9n/a, but on current form, ability, and the stats it's impossible to select anything other than a Wigan win."

Back Wigan to beat Millwall @ 1.8810/11

One of the prizes for winning this FA Cup semi-final might not be too appealing, but the other one certainly is and Mike Norman believes Wigan will be the team celebrating...

Millwall v Wigan
Saturday 17:15, live on ESPN

Arguably the worst prize in football awaits the winner of this weekend's first FA Cup semi-final.

No, I'm not talking about a return to Wembley to contest the oldest cup competition in the world against either Chelsea or Manchester City; which is obviously a fantastic reward. I'm talking of course about qualification to the Europa League; in my opinion the worst competition in football.

Everything about the Europa League is wrong; Thursday night football, regular Sunday afternoon domestic football, the format, Champions League clubs entering at a later stage etc. It's awful.

Not that any of this will be entering the minds of anyone - barring the supporters - connected with the Latics or the Lions on Saturday afternoon. Both sets of players will simply be concentrating on trying to reach a major Wembley cup final for the first time in their club's history, and with it the chance to lift some silverware.

Of course, these two clubs have played in major cup finals before, staged at the Millennium Stadium however, and they did contest a Wembley cup final between each other in 1999, Wigan emerging 1-0 victors to lift the Football League Trophy - far from being labelled a major Wembley cup final.

Match Odds

As cup competitions progress it's inevitable that upsets become less likely and Andrew Atherley details here perfectly the task facing Millwall this weekend.

Since the Premier League era began, seven times a club from the top-flight has faced a Championship side in the semi-final of the FA Cup, and the outcome after 90 minutes has been six wins and a draw for the 'bigger' club. On this stat alone Wigan look to hold a great chance of winning the match at odds of 1.8810/11.

Opta also highlight a significant stat counting against the Lions. Millwall have won just one of their last 13 clashes against top-flight opposition in the FA Cup, and that came against a bang out-of-form Aston Villa side earlier this season.

Current form also suggests Wigan hold the advantage. They are fighting for their lives in the Premier League, though three wins and a draw from their last five games has given them a chance to survive. In the middle of that good league run Roberto Martinez's men went to Goodison Park and produced one of the performances of the season to beat Everton 3-0. They'll want to keep the momentum going here.

Kenny Jackett's Millwall lost at home to relegation-threatened Sheffield Wednesday in midweek meaning it's three Championship games without a win, and while this recent form can be attributed to having one eye on this game, it will take a huge performance to get the better of Wigan.

Millwall are 4.67/2 to win the game with The Draw at 3.9n/a, but on current form, ability, and the stats it's impossible to select anything other than a Wigan win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Cup semi-finals/finals tend to be tense affairs with the initial emphasis being on not losing rather than trying to win, and I expect this encounter to be no different.

Millwall will line-up defensively-minded with four at the back, and Liam Trotter - if fit - anchoring the midfield. They'll aim to keep Wigan at bay and it will probably take a while for the Premier League outfit to find their stride and creat some chances.

Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at 1.910/11 and the way I expect the game to go I think that is worth a decent wager with a view to laying off later in the game if it starts to open up. Obviously an early goal will be a negative, but I certainly don't envisage a high-scoring encounter.

First Goalscorer

I fancy a Wigan victory in a low-scoring game, so would much rather have a wager in the First Goalscorer market as opposed to the To Score market as it could be that just one goal settles this tie.

Arouna Kone has been in terrific form of late with six goals in his last seven league and cup games and is a worthy favourite at 6.86/1, but at slightly bigger odds a chance is taken on Jordi Gomez (8.88/1). The Spaniard has started all five of Wigan's FA Cup games this season, scoring three goals, and looked really impressive against Everton in the last round.

Recommended Bets

Back Wigan to beat Millwall @ 1.8810/11
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.910/11

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Equatorial Guinea v Senegal: Lions to come roaring back

African Cup Of Nations / Tobias Gourlay / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Dame N'doye scored an excellent goal for Senegal at the weekend

"Equatorial Guinea held South Africa and Cameroon to draws in friendlies last year, but Senegal’s need for a win is so big it might be uncontainable"

Senegal remain third favourites to win the Africa Cup of Nations, despite losing their opening game, and Tobias Gourlay expects - hopes - they will start to justify their status against Equatorial Guinea

Wednesday 19:00 (Live on British Eurosport)
Equatorial Guinea [6.0] Senegal [1.75] draw [3.6]

Equatorial Guinea

In the tournament's opening game on Saturday, Equatorial Guinea showed that money can buy you success. Starting with a team of 11 players who had not been born in Equatorial Guinea, the co-hosts beat Libya 1-0. Javier Balboa's late winner earned the team $1m to share among themselves.

Rodolfo Bodipo, a forward for Deportivo La Coruna and the squad's captain, carried an injury into the tournament and, after being stretchered off against Libya, is unlikely to feature in this match.

Senegal

Coach Amara Traore has called the weekend's surprising defeat to Zambia a "wake-up call". Let's hope so. Senegal were this column's pre-tournament pick and on Saturday they were sluggish - half-asleep even. The alarm will really go off if they fail to win on Wednesday.

To ensure that they do take three points and given themselves a chance of avoiding Cote d'Ivoire in the semi-finals, perhaps Papiss Cisse, who scored four times in qualifying, will replace his Newcastle United team-mate Demba Ba. And perhaps Dame N'doye, scorer of an excellent goal against Zambia, will be given a start.

Match Odds

Senegal are three points behind their hosts, but odds-on favourites to win. The Lions' record of having won 11/13 coming into the tournament suggests that, if they have been woken up, there is little danger of them being held to a draw and they will take all three points.

Equatorial Guinea held South Africa and Cameroon to draws in friendlies last year, but Senegal's need for a win is so big it might be uncontainable.

Over/Under Goals

Nine of Equatorial Guinea's last 12 matches have produced Under 2.5 Goals, which is a [1.66] shot for this match.

Courtesy of James Eastham, we have a stat that says opening-round matches in the Africa Cup of Nations are not as cagey as you might instinctively feel: at the last four tournaments, 16 of 31 such games went Over 2.5 Goals.

Because Senegal have such hot attacking properties - usually - and because [2.5] is a very big price, Over 2.5 Goals is the selection.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.5]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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Morocco v Tunisia: Atlas Lions are kings of North Africa

African Cup Of Nations / Tobias Gourlay / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mane man: Marouane Chamakh will lead the Atlas Lions line against Tunisia

"Morocco have players from top European leagues in key positions and that big-match experience could be the difference"

Tobias Gourlay explains how Morocco can win the Maghreb deby with Tunisia, despite concerns around the form of their strikers

Monday 19:00 (Live on British Eurosport)
Morocco [2.62] Tunisia [3.1] draw [3.15]

Morocco

The Atlas Lions won their qualifying group, but failed to score in half of their six games. Adel Taarabt has returned to the squad after walking out last summer. Despite poor club form, he will probably start upfront with Marouane Chamakh, who is similarly short on confidence.

Coach Eric Gerets only took his first international job a few months ago, but has significant experience at club level with big teams in France, Germany and the Netherlands.

Tunisia

Many big teams are missing from this year's Cup of Nations, but for a tenth successive competition the Eagles of Carthage are there.

It's not quite accurate to say they flew into Gabon - they trailed in second in their qualifying group, beating up on the bottom two teams but failing to win any of their four matches against Botswana and Malawi, who finished first and third.

Match Odds

Fifa suggests it is difficult to separate the two teams, but Morocco (ranked 61 in the world) are favourites to beat their North African rivals (59) in this repeat of the 2004 final.

Gerets' team has players from top European leagues in key positions - as well as the strikers, there is Udinese's impressive Mehdi Benatia in central defence and the captain, Houssine Kharja of Fiorentina, in midfield. Given the teams similarly mediocre records in getting here - both won only half of their qualifiers - that big-match experience could be the difference.

Over/Under Goals

Nine of Morocco's last 12 matches anywhere have produced two goals or fewer, which helps explain why Under 2.5 Goals is only [1.57].

Dare we risk Under 1.5 Goals at [2.62]? A couple of big home wins over Algeria and Tanzania aside, Morocco's four other qualifiers stayed Under 1.5 Goals and three of Tunisia's eight qualifiers were similarly low-scoring (2/4 on foreign soil).

Both Teams to Score?

Tunisia's matches used to be quite exciting: between August 2010 and August 2011 eight of their nine games went Over 2.5 Goals. Things have now changed. In none of their last five matches have both teams scored. The same's true of 8/12 Morocco games. With the market not quite sure what to expect, there might be a touch of value backing 'No' at evens.

Recommended Bet: Back Morocco @ [2.62] to win

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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The Championship Betting: Must win time for Blades and Lions

Championship / Andrew French / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Micky Adams’ Sheff Utd side have a tiny chance of achieving Championship safety

"It was the Blades' second consecutive 3-2 win, and the fact they have ground out those two successes shows they are prepared to fight for their survival."

For different reasons, Sheff Utd and Millwall need three points on Saturday, whilst Crystal Palace will be delighted if they can secure a point at Hull. Andrew French explains all.

Sheff Utd v Barnsley

Even to have a chance of staying up, Sheffield United need everything to go their way both this weekend and next. All they can do is win and hope - and I think they have every chance of doing the former. The Blades were all but down when they trailed 2-0 at Reading on Monday, but an amazing rally to win that game has given them a slender lifeline. It was the Blades' second consecutive 3-2 win, and the fact they have ground out those two successes shows they are prepared to fight for their survival. Visitors Barnsley have nothing to play for but pride - and they have won only once in their last eight outings. They have not won any of their last eight away games and, having conceded at least once in each of their last nine games, the evidence points to the home side being able to find the net.

Back Sheff Utd at [2.18]

Millwall v Swansea

One of four teams fighting for the last play-off slot, Millwall are on something of a roll - and how often do we see teams come from outside the top six with a charge at the end of the season? The Lions have won six of their last nine and were lethal in putting away a woeful Preston side at The Den last weekend, following up by just about sending Scunthorpe down to League One with a win at Glanford Park on Monday. Visitors Swansea are assured of being involved in the play-offs, but are not in the greatest form. Monday's win over Ipswich was their first in four attempts, and they have lost more away matches this season (11) than any other team in the top 10. They particularly struggle when visiting the division's better teams, losing seven of their nine games away to top-half opposition.

Back Millwall at [2.46]

Hull v Crystal Palace

A point will be good enough to make sure Palace are playing Championship football again next season, and while no team will ever admit to playing for a draw, you couldn't blame Palace for looking to keep it tight in this one. Their away record suggests they can't risk being too cavalier; their 16 defeats is the highest in the division and their sole victory on the road was way back on October 10. However, the Eagles have been far harder to beat on their travels lately, drawing their last two at Doncaster and Leicester. In fact, their recent run of two defeats in seven shows they have knuckled down just when they've needed to. Hosts Hull can, conceivably, still finish sixth - but it would take an incredible sequence of results. Instead, they are set for a mid-table finish and their home form must give Palace plenty of hope. The Tigers have failed to win 15 of their 22 matches at the KC Stadium, and have been beaten at home by two of the bottom three sides already this season.

Lay Hull at [1.86]

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