African Cup Of Nations 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Dame N'doye scored an excellent goal for Senegal at the weekend
"Equatorial Guinea held South Africa and Cameroon to draws in friendlies last year, but Senegal’s need for a win is so big it might be uncontainable"
Senegal remain third favourites to win the Africa Cup of Nations, despite losing their opening game, and Tobias Gourlay expects - hopes - they will start to justify their status against Equatorial Guinea
Wednesday 19:00 (Live on British Eurosport)
Equatorial Guinea [6.0] Senegal [1.75] draw [3.6]
Equatorial Guinea
In the tournament's opening game on Saturday, Equatorial Guinea showed that money can buy you success. Starting with a team of 11 players who had not been born in Equatorial Guinea, the co-hosts beat Libya 1-0. Javier Balboa's late winner earned the team $1m to share among themselves.
Rodolfo Bodipo, a forward for Deportivo La Coruna and the squad's captain, carried an injury into the tournament and, after being stretchered off against Libya, is unlikely to feature in this match.
Senegal
Coach Amara Traore has called the weekend's surprising defeat to Zambia a "wake-up call". Let's hope so. Senegal were this column's pre-tournament pick and on Saturday they were sluggish - half-asleep even. The alarm will really go off if they fail to win on Wednesday.
To ensure that they do take three points and given themselves a chance of avoiding Cote d'Ivoire in the semi-finals, perhaps Papiss Cisse, who scored four times in qualifying, will replace his Newcastle United team-mate Demba Ba. And perhaps Dame N'doye, scorer of an excellent goal against Zambia, will be given a start.
Senegal are three points behind their hosts, but odds-on favourites to win. The Lions' record of having won 11/13 coming into the tournament suggests that, if they have been woken up, there is little danger of them being held to a draw and they will take all three points.
Equatorial Guinea held South Africa and Cameroon to draws in friendlies last year, but Senegal's need for a win is so big it might be uncontainable.
Nine of Equatorial Guinea's last 12 matches have produced Under 2.5 Goals, which is a [1.66] shot for this match.
Courtesy of James Eastham, we have a stat that says opening-round matches in the Africa Cup of Nations are not as cagey as you might instinctively feel: at the last four tournaments, 16 of 31 such games went Over 2.5 Goals.
Because Senegal have such hot attacking properties - usually - and because [2.5] is a very big price, Over 2.5 Goals is the selection.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.5]
*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
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