African Cup Of Nations 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Mane man: Marouane Chamakh will lead the Atlas Lions line against Tunisia
"Morocco have players from top European leagues in key positions and that big-match experience could be the difference"
Tobias Gourlay explains how Morocco can win the Maghreb deby with Tunisia, despite concerns around the form of their strikers
Monday 19:00 (Live on British Eurosport)
Morocco [2.62] Tunisia [3.1] draw [3.15]
Morocco
The Atlas Lions won their qualifying group, but failed to score in half of their six games. Adel Taarabt has returned to the squad after walking out last summer. Despite poor club form, he will probably start upfront with Marouane Chamakh, who is similarly short on confidence.
Coach Eric Gerets only took his first international job a few months ago, but has significant experience at club level with big teams in France, Germany and the Netherlands.
Tunisia
Many big teams are missing from this year's Cup of Nations, but for a tenth successive competition the Eagles of Carthage are there.
It's not quite accurate to say they flew into Gabon - they trailed in second in their qualifying group, beating up on the bottom two teams but failing to win any of their four matches against Botswana and Malawi, who finished first and third.
Match Odds
Fifa suggests it is difficult to separate the two teams, but Morocco (ranked 61 in the world) are favourites to beat their North African rivals (59) in this repeat of the 2004 final.
Gerets' team has players from top European leagues in key positions - as well as the strikers, there is Udinese's impressive Mehdi Benatia in central defence and the captain, Houssine Kharja of Fiorentina, in midfield. Given the teams similarly mediocre records in getting here - both won only half of their qualifiers - that big-match experience could be the difference.
Nine of Morocco's last 12 matches anywhere have produced two goals or fewer, which helps explain why Under 2.5 Goals is only [1.57].
Dare we risk Under 1.5 Goals at [2.62]? A couple of big home wins over Algeria and Tanzania aside, Morocco's four other qualifiers stayed Under 1.5 Goals and three of Tunisia's eight qualifiers were similarly low-scoring (2/4 on foreign soil).
Tunisia's matches used to be quite exciting: between August 2010 and August 2011 eight of their nine games went Over 2.5 Goals. Things have now changed. In none of their last five matches have both teams scored. The same's true of 8/12 Morocco games. With the market not quite sure what to expect, there might be a touch of value backing 'No' at evens.
Recommended Bet: Back Morocco @ [2.62] to win
*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
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