"12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time."
After a stunning victory at Doral, Tiger Woods is all the rage with punters to land a fifth US Masters title next month. The odds are falling fast, but Paul Krishnamurty argues there's still plenty of way to go...
Its that special time of the punting year again, and I don't just mean the Cheltenham Festival. With less than a month before the season's first major, serious golf punters are trying to get ahead of the game by grabbing the early US Masters value. There is always trading mileage in predicting which way the market will move about each player as interest heightens.
Normally that would involve finding big-priced candidates likely to be gambled down, especially if they're fancied to perform well in the few events before Augusta. This time, however, the market dynamics may well result in most of the field drifting out as confidence builds behind the favourite.
Numerous thoughts whizzed around my brain over the weekend, watching Tiger Woods win his 17th WGC title. First, there was the most obvious cliche that form is temporary while class is permanent. On a more personal note, it was hard not to berate myself for not sticking to my own golden rules. Last year I'd successfully followed a plan to ignore Tiger outside his favourite events. Last month I abandoned it with disastrous effect at his second home, Torrey Pines. Having missed that boat, I couldn't bring myself to back him at Doral, even at tempting double-figure odds.
Then on Friday afternoon, ahead of the second round, I had a conversation with my esteemed colleague Steve Rawlings about the merits of his in-running bet on Tiger. I disagreed with him, citing numerous failures in contention from the post-scandal Tiger. Moreover, I just couldn't get poor performances at the World Matchplay, Abu Dhabi and Honda Classic out of my head. Needless to say, Steve was spectacularly right and I was wrong!
Of course, rather than cry over spilt milk, the plan must be to move forward and learn the lesson. I felt Tiger's performance at Doral may well have been his best and was certainly his most significant display since his personal life and career unravelled in 2009. He looked his old self, without weaknesses in any department. Clearly at the very least the rules of last season should still apply.
Therefore, the next step is to restate which those favoured tracks and events are. Augusta must be on the shortlist, although in fairness I wouldn't bracket it with Torrey Pines, Firestone or St Andrews as courses where a Woods playing at 75% of his best is basically unbeatable. After all, if that were the case, he would have won there more recently than 2005. Nevertheless Tiger's Masters record is pretty awesome, winning four times and registering ten top-five finishes. Significantly, he didn't need to be anywhere near his best to make the top-six in every renewal between 2006 and 2011.
One course which must be listed alongside the aforementioned of ideal layouts is the one place where we'll see him before now and the Masters. Even last year, despite struggling to find form most weeks, Tiger landed a seventh title at Bay Hill, finishing seven shots ahead of third place. On all that historical evidence and last week's Doral form, Woods must be considered a good thing for next week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.
If and when he wins an eighth title there, expect a further plunge on Tiger's odds for Augusta. In recent days, his Masters odds have shortened from 10.09/1 to 6.411/2 and there is plenty of way to go. 12 months ago after winning at Bay Hill, he traded down to around 4.84/1 before the Masters. This time around the form is better and his principal rival Rory McIlroy is under a cloud, so I expect the current 6.411/2 to look massive in four weeks time.
Recommended Bet (Back to Lay)
US Masters
Back Tiger Woods @ 6.411/2 to win the US Masters
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