US Masters Betting: 101 reasons why Westwood is Major value for the win at Augusta

"Westwood now has the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he’s now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling."

Lee Westwood has come close at Augusta in two of the last three seasons. Ralph Ellis says this could be the year when an improved short game means he's ready to be measured up for the Green Jacket...

By his own admission Lee Westwood once had more than 100 putters stored in his garage. While Tiger Woods took the same battered old implement from one winning tournament to the other for years, Worksop's finest was always looking for the magic stick which would sort out the one big weakness in his game.

It's the oldest adage in golf that you drive for show and putt for dough, and Westwood has long been its biggest example. Brilliant from tee to green (his ex caddy Billy Foster claims he's always been the world's best), his short game has never quite matched up.

Take last year's Masters, for example. Around four days at Augusta he took 128 putts, a total exceeded by only three others who played all 72 holes, and yet still finished just two shots short of a play-off. It was probably the most glaring example of his problems in a year when he stayed in the world's top ten despite being ranked 189th for scrambling and 174th in strokes gained/putting on the PGA tour. It doesn't take a genius to work out what needed to be solved to take the last step and actually win a Major.

Much has been made of Westwood's decision to leave his Nottingham roots and move his family to Florida. It's been part of a drastic change, with sacked caddies, coaches and other specialists left in his wake.

But one side effect of living in America was the chance to do something about his short game, and not only the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he's now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling. The chip shots are going close enough to the hole that he hasn't had to rely on putting.

Living in the States also allowed him to spend some time at Ping's headquarters in Arizona to have his putting stroke put under high-tec analysis with HD cameras establishing that he was cutting slightly across the ball from outside to inside. If you're bothered about the technical side he will now use a Counterbalanced Ping Scottsdale TR Anser B. If you're not, all you need to know is that it has a longer, 38 inch shaft and a higher mass to keep the face more square to the target. He used it in anger for the first time in the Shell Houston Open and the result was a top ten finish. In his opening round he took just 26 putts.

Now I know Augusta's lightning fast greens are a different matter, but that does tend to make Westwood's current price of 3.45n/a for a top ten finish in the Masters rather tempting. Come to that he's got the pedigree to think that backing him at 3433/1 to be the winner will give you a very good run for your money. You're talking about a player who has been in the top three in two of the last three seasons, so sort out his most glaring fault and it could be time to take the final step.

He once had 100 putters. Could it be that the 101st will be the one that Westwood prizes most?

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5 reasons why the UK won't win Eurovision

Eurovision Song Contest / Dan Fitch / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

A man who has done much damage to the UK's Eurovision hopes.

Dan Fitch takes a look at the problems that face the UK as they attempt to win Eurovision.

To win Eurovision all you have to do is to come up with the best/catchiest song, right? Wrong. It's a lot more complicated than that. Especially if you're British.

The Brits haven't won the contest since 1997 and are poor value at a price of [11.0] to win this year. Here are the five reasons why the UK won't win Eurovision.

How many boy bands were asked to represent the UK before Blue were dug up from obscurity? The group do at least have some past form in the competition, but unfortunately it's the type that you would best describe as 'poor'.

Lee Ryan wrote the song 'Guardian Angel', that Andy Scott-Lee performed on a 2005 reality show to find our Eurovision entry, only for the British public to decide that Scott-Lee should remain most famous for being married to Michelle Heaton. The following year saw Anthony Costa finish second in the same contest, with his incorrectly named song 'It's a Beautiful Thing' (it wasn't).

Blue's Eurovision entry is called 'I Can', which we'll all be referring to as 'We Can't' if they fail to win. It's a forgettable number that was probably rejected by Take That, Westlife and The Wanted before being reluctantly handed over to Blue. At best this song could end up being used as background music in the next series of Masterchef, but it won't win Eurovision.

The trouble with the British is that when we're not getting involved in illegal wars, we tend to be quite fair about things. This is a mistake when it comes to Eurovision, where being fair is a shortcut to finishing in a lowly position.

In 2003 we scored a deserved 'nul points', when Jemini sang so off-key that is sounded as if the duo were warbling different songs, but we might have been saved this embarrassment if we made better friends with our neighbours.

Take Greece and Cyprus for instance. In every contest since 1998 they have given each other 12 points, regardless of the quality of the songs involved. Then there was the case of the 2007 contest where the first fifteen places were suspiciously filled by nations east of the Adriatic sea.

A wise old sage (possibly Thoreau) once said, 'Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours'. Unfortunately we don't have any neighbours who particularly like us, which brings us to our third point, after this video showing the history of the Greece/Cyprus bromance.

Our Eurovision chances are not helped by the fact that at one time or another we have been at war with just about every country in Europe, apart from Switzerland... and that was only because we had no use for all those cuckoo clocks.

The days of us getting into scuffles against Europe's great and good may be over, but our current involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan have made us about as popular on the continent as driving on left. We have no close friends, only former enemies.

There's not a lot we can do about this, apart from trying to stop annoying everyone. Or alternatively we could play hard-ball and insist that every skint European nation that we help to bail out, gives us 12 points.

While Eurovision isn't treated with the sincerity on the continent that we British often imply, it's fair to say that it's not thought of as quite so much of a joke in Europe.

The sniggering British attitude towards Eurovision is partly down to the fact that for many years it was commentated on by Terry Wogan, who would spend the entire show taking the p*ss out of everyone.

Wogan has now gone, but by choosing Graham Norton as his replacement, the BBC did nothing to dispel the notions that Eurovision is something to be laughed at and only enjoyed by the gay community. We're not saying that Eurovision should be treated with the same sort of sincerity that BBC extend to their coverage of Remembrance Sunday, but just pointing out that our attitude towards Eurovision isn't going to endear us to the people handing out points.

We are the nation that gave the world the likes of The Beatles, Dusty Springfield, The Kinks, Scott Walker, Led Zeppelin, David Bowie, Roxy Music, Elvis Costello, The Jam, Blur, Radiohead and Michelle McManus. What have the whole of Europe produced in return? The Scorpions, Roxette, Vanessa Paradis... and Abba - OK, they were good, we'll give them that.

Our point is that in any contest involving European nations and popular music, there should only be one winner. Other than the United States (who aren't in Europe, fact fans) no other country has produced better pop and rock acts than the UK and some of them have even been interested in getting involved in Eurovision. Oasis wanted to enter 'All Around The World' in 1998, while Morrissey was keen to represent the UK in 2007. Who did we send instead? Someone called 'Imaani' and Scootch.

So why don't we use such talents in the Eurovision song contest? If we were to enter the cream of our musical crop then we'd either win every year, or could sit smug in the knowledge that the rest of Europe were just being deliberately contentious. We're never going to win the World Cup, but popular music is the one thing that we're demonstrably better at than the French, Dutch and Germans.

Germany will be wheeling out last year's winner Lena Meyer-Landrut while Britain has employed the 'talents' of ageing 'boy' band Blue, even Ireland are putting their faith in the star names with Jedward preparing to perform. But can the proven...

Dan Fitch takes a look at the Eurovision Song Contest entries that embarrassed the UK....

After being dead in the water for the last few years punters believe that former chart darlings Blue could put the UK back on the Eurovision map...

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Stick with Ger for Reasons known at Navan

Tipping / Stuart Jones / 16 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Today's best bet goes on the Flat at Navan

"Reasons Unknown may have finished down the field all starts in maidens at 2 yrs but he fared easily best of those held up when third to Haziyna on handicap debut at Leopardstown and is capable of better again".

Big fields are the order of the day at both Gowran and Navan this Sunday, but we're still hopeful of finding some winners with our three selections.

Plenty of question marks hang over those with the best previous form in the minor event at Gowran due off at 15.40, so it may well be best to side with the unexposed and progressive novice Allee Garde. Willie Mullins' representative immediately created a good impression when switched to hurdles, winning a maiden at Down Royal (2½m) in facile style. He was far from discredited in the Spa Hurdle at Cheltenhan last time, remains open to improvement, and this is a much more realistic assignment.

See U Bob (16.15) and Torphichen are the two to concentrate on in the following minor chase and the form of the former's second to Hughies Grey at Navan last time makes him the one to side with. Paul Nolan's dual-winning hurdler bounced right back to his very best chase form when running this year's Ulster National winner to a short head in that Grade 2 event and this strong-travelling sort won't be inconvencienced by the slight drop in trip.

Ger Lyon's has started the season in excellent form and his Leopardstown eye catcher Reasons Unknown looks to have very strong claims of building on the promise of his reappearance in the 17.10 at Navan. Reasons Unknown may have finished down the field all starts in maidens at 2 yrs but he fared easily best of those held up when third to Haziyna on handicap debut at Leopardstown and is capable of better again.

Recommendations

back Allee Garde @ [6.4] in the 15.40 at Gowran
back See U Bob @ [4.5] in the 16.15 at Gowran
back Reasons Unknown @ [5.0] in the 17.10 at Navan

We're headed to Shakespeare country for today's placepot......

Three bets for Sunday from Timeform's US team......

Timeform run the rule over this two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase......

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Pud On Tilt: Part 2 - Reasons for Tilt and How to Prevent Them

Internet Poker / Matthew Pitt / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

To go through and list every single reason why a poker player might go on tilt might take literally forever due to the sheer number of factors that one would have to take into consideration. With that in mind I thought it would be best to list a few situations that have caused yours truly to fall into the clutches of the dreaded tilt monster.

The most common facet of poker that used to cause me to go on tilt, or at least begin the slippery slope towards it, was the dreaded bad beat. We have all been there, looking on course to book a nice winning session at the cash tables only for some complete numptey to hit his two outer on the river to stack you. I believe this is what the excellent Jared Tendler refers to as "Injustice Tilt" because you feel as if an injustice has been done to you as it was your right to win the pot.

That is your first mistake. Unless you are a 100% lock to win a hand then you have no right to the pot because 1% occurrences can and do happen (once every 100 times usually, sorry for being sarcastic) This problem is also magnified by the fact most poker players tend to forget the times they had variance working for them in a good way, instead they attribute the fact they won a hand to good play not variance so when something negative happens it seems much worse to them and that the whole poker world is against them.

Another cause of Pudding tilt, but one I have gotten over almost 100% now, was simply running badly. As I am quite a low volume player compared to many running bad seems to last longer than say it would a 10-12 tabling grinder. The latter may get through a sticky spell of 3,000 in a single day where as it could take me 5-10 days depending on when I get to play. This prolonged period of running bad can begin to make you feel disillusioned with the game as you are constantly folding bad hands, missing flops and losing to flush-chasing morons all the time! This used to me down the path of "passive tilt" which will be discussed in a later piece but I have almost overcome this horrible demon basically by realising that you have to take the rough with the smooth and you have to realise that poker, cash games especially, are just one long session that never end. I try to imagine that in my lifetime I will play millions of hands so being card dead or having a bad spell of 2,000 is quite literally a drop in the ocean.

The third and final cause for me going on tilt, and again something I have learned to control, was when I made a mistake. I hate losing but accept it as part of the game, but I used to go nuts if I lost due to a mistake made by myself as I could have prevented it. The worst time for this was when I would say to myself that "they have the flush" but then still call anyway. WTF! How many of you are sat nodding now? This used to send me over the edge until I read "Every Hand Revealed" by Gus Hansen, the book that documented every hand he played during his Aussie Millions Main Event win back in 2007.

Although I can't remember the exact wording or what page it was on Hansen basically said in poker you have to accept that on occasions you are going to make decisions that are completely wrong and you will make plenty of them. By realising we work with incomplete information so our decisions are going to be clouded somewhat you quickly stop beating yourself up over making mistakes you make. As long as at the time there was a legitimate reason for your play then accept it and move on.

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Pud on Tilt: Part 1 - Kübler-Ross model

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