Showing posts with label Augusta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Augusta. Show all posts

April 10, 2013

US Masters Betting: 101 reasons why Westwood is Major value for the win at Augusta

"Westwood now has the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he’s now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling."

Lee Westwood has come close at Augusta in two of the last three seasons. Ralph Ellis says this could be the year when an improved short game means he's ready to be measured up for the Green Jacket...

By his own admission Lee Westwood once had more than 100 putters stored in his garage. While Tiger Woods took the same battered old implement from one winning tournament to the other for years, Worksop's finest was always looking for the magic stick which would sort out the one big weakness in his game.

It's the oldest adage in golf that you drive for show and putt for dough, and Westwood has long been its biggest example. Brilliant from tee to green (his ex caddy Billy Foster claims he's always been the world's best), his short game has never quite matched up.

Take last year's Masters, for example. Around four days at Augusta he took 128 putts, a total exceeded by only three others who played all 72 holes, and yet still finished just two shots short of a play-off. It was probably the most glaring example of his problems in a year when he stayed in the world's top ten despite being ranked 189th for scrambling and 174th in strokes gained/putting on the PGA tour. It doesn't take a genius to work out what needed to be solved to take the last step and actually win a Major.

Much has been made of Westwood's decision to leave his Nottingham roots and move his family to Florida. It's been part of a drastic change, with sacked caddies, coaches and other specialists left in his wake.

But one side effect of living in America was the chance to do something about his short game, and not only the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he's now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling. The chip shots are going close enough to the hole that he hasn't had to rely on putting.

Living in the States also allowed him to spend some time at Ping's headquarters in Arizona to have his putting stroke put under high-tec analysis with HD cameras establishing that he was cutting slightly across the ball from outside to inside. If you're bothered about the technical side he will now use a Counterbalanced Ping Scottsdale TR Anser B. If you're not, all you need to know is that it has a longer, 38 inch shaft and a higher mass to keep the face more square to the target. He used it in anger for the first time in the Shell Houston Open and the result was a top ten finish. In his opening round he took just 26 putts.

Now I know Augusta's lightning fast greens are a different matter, but that does tend to make Westwood's current price of 3.45n/a for a top ten finish in the Masters rather tempting. Come to that he's got the pedigree to think that backing him at 3433/1 to be the winner will give you a very good run for your money. You're talking about a player who has been in the top three in two of the last three seasons, so sort out his most glaring fault and it could be time to take the final step.

He once had 100 putters. Could it be that the 101st will be the one that Westwood prizes most?

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US Masters: Top five Augusta memories ... and accompanying bets!

"Faldo was unpopular for his single-minded commitment and sometimes miserable demeanour, but I loved his determination to be the best. Choose from Justin Rose, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter or David Lynn as the Top English player this year." 

Augusta serves up classic moments year after year so we sent Ralph Ellis to Youtube to pick us five of the best...

Tradition says the sound of the first cuckoo is the sign that spring is arriving. When I was little it was more the smell of cut grass for the first time at the cricket field where my dad ran the club. But now the sure sign that summer is finally on its way is the Thursday night when you sit up and watch the start of the action from Augusta.

If you didn't already love golf, watching The Masters would drag you in and make you hopelessly enchanted by the sport. Maybe it's the beautiful backdrop, the sumptuous colour of the flowers around Augusta National, the sound of birdsong, punctuated by the swish of a club. But mostly it's the compelling drama that gets played out on that stage - the fascinating fight of mind over matter watching top players deal with the challenge of the course and its lightening fast greens, while trying to handle the pressure to succeed.

Those greens. Downhill putts that roll, and roll, and roll some more. Peter Alliss once described them as "like putting down the bonnet of a car and trying to get the ball to stop an inch before it falls on to the bumper." 

Here are my top five Masters memories. Will the 2013 tournament serve up some similarly classic moments? You couldn't bet against it. 


Jack Nicklaus in 1986
This was the one that got me hooked on the Masters. Nicklaus, The Golden Bear, aged 46 and so far off the pace that even when he birdied the 9th nobody really noticed. But then came the greatest finish the Masters had produced as he took just 30 to play the final nine holes. An eagle at the 15th set up his challenge, and by the time he rolled in a putt on 17 to take the outright lead it was clear that history was happening. A compelling performance by the man who still holds the most Majors - and is still the oldest to wear the Green Jacket.


The Bet: In 2012 Fred Couples led after two rounds at the age of 52 - he's 120.0119/1 to be the first round leader this time.


Poulter's hole-in-one at the 16th in 2008
I love Ian Poulter's story. I'd love him to win at Augusta, just to put a final chapter on the tale of a boy who sold Mars bars and collected balls on a public driving range but found time to practise so hard he became one of the top players in the World. I've walked the course behind him at The Open and at Ryder Cups and I love his energy and his competitive instinct - even if the explosive temperament does seem to cost him when it comes to trying to win big tournaments for himself instead of a team. This was one of those moments where you are settled on the sofa, watching the action unfold, and then suddenly sit up and go "wow".


The Bet: It's 1.9620/21 there will be a hole-in-one at some time in this year's tournament. 


The last Englishman to win, Nick Faldo in 1996
Golfing history has this down as the year Greg Norman crumbled, losing a six shot lead as the nerves bit deeper. I remember it as the year Faldo won, watching with pride as a home player showed guts and grinding determination to take his chance for a third Green Jacket. Faldo was a winner when winning wasn't fashionable for Brits. He was unpopular for his single-minded commitment and sometimes miserable demeanour, but I loved his determination to be the best. 


The Bet: Choose from Justin Rose, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter or David Lynn as the Top English player this year. 


Tiger announces himself to the world in 1997
A year after The Great White Shark got eaten alive by Augusta National, along came a slimly built American kid called Tiger Woods. We got so used to him winning everything for years after that it's hard to put into context just how dramatic was his first Major. At 21 it seemed ludicrous that he was the pre-tournament favourite, all the more so when he was four over after his first nine holes. But then he shot 30 for the back nine and we all sat up. It was his driving distances that we'd barely seen before - his average for the four days was 323 yards. Nine shots ahead of the field on Sunday morning, the last day wasn't even a contest but the procession was brilliant viewing as the young Tiger played stunning shot after stunning shot to wrap up the title.


The Bet: Is Tiger back to his best? He's 5.49/2 favourite to be this year's winner. 


McIlory's meltdown
Oh dear. This was car crash TV, but you just had to sit and watch, even at times you felt like hiding behind the sofa. Rory McIlroy, a smiling, boyish 21-year-old, played three days of stunning golf to take a four shot lead into Sunday. Half way round he still led by one - and then came the hook that bounced off a tree into some cabins, a recovery that hit another tree, and a triple-bogey seven at the tenth. Hold yourself together, and he did with two shots to the 11th green, only for a three putt. By the time he'd four-putted on the 12th it was all over, and the drive into Rae's Creek on the 13th just piled up the agony. Sport hurts. Maybe you can't be physically injured playing golf, but this was mental torture.

The Bet: Is this the year McIlroy puts that misery behind him? He's 11.010/1 second favourite. http://www.betfair.com/exchange/golf/market?id=1.107077980

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April 5, 2012

Masters Tips: Three-ball bets for the opening day in Augusta

US Masters RSS / / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Does Charl offer first day value?

Does Charl offer first day value?

"Angel Cabrera [4.3] has seen a flood of support following his early showing at the Shell Houston Open (opened with a 65), but the former Masters champion is really up against it on day one playing with wonder boy Rory McIlroy and the mercurial Bubba Watson."

Can Charl get his Masters defence off to a strong start? Will Louis produce the goods at Augusta? Does Rickie have a chance against Rose and Immelman? Is Cabrera going to find either Rory or Bubba too strong? For Dan Geraghty the answer to all of the above is yes!

There is something of a bandwagon forming for Keegan Bradley, his price has been steadily contracting for weeks now. He's certainly a player with a lot of nerve and a bright future but I'm surprised he is available at the same price in his three-ball as defending champion Charl Schwartzel [2.14]. This is Bradley's debut at Augusta, Charl's extra experience will be hard to match on day one. No disrespect to amateur Kelly Kraft (the third member of the three ball) but this one looks a match.

Charl's great friend Louis Oosthuizen [2.86] suffered an unfortunate collapse on Sunday last week when leading the Shell Houston Open, however, he bounced back well towards the end of his round to finish solo third. That event is seen as a great warm-up for Augusta, it's a fairly similar test so I'm happy to overlook Oosthuizen's three missed Augusta cuts. He's clearly coming into this week in good form and it's his second Masters as a Major champion. His playing partners are Mark Wilson (who has a disappointing record in Majors) and Graeme McDowell who has also missed his last two cuts at the Masters.

I really like the look of Rickie Fowler's price [3.3] in his day one three ball. He played well without scoring great in Houston last time out, this was backed up by this quote from him afterwards "Embarrassing score on the weekend but my main goal this week was to get ready for Augusta... didn't show but I feel really good about my game". Fowler finished 38th on debut last year, look for him to improve on that this time around. He has a tough grouping for the first two days, with past champion Trevor Immelman and Justin Rose, but the price is right!

Angel Cabrera [4.3] has seen a flood of support following his early showing at the Shell Houston Open (opened with a 65), but the former Masters champion is really up against it on day one playing with wonder boy Rory McIlroy and the mercurial Bubba Watson, who has been in the top 20 on every single start this season (seven appearances). It's hard to see him finishing the day on top and is worth a lay at [4.3].

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Charl Schwartzel @ [2.1]
2pts Back Louis Oosthuizen @ [2.86]
1pt Back Rickie Fowler @ [3.3]
1pt Lay Angel Cabrera @ [4.3]

*All the above bets are available in-play on betfair

Season Profit / Loss: -14.22

*Follow me on twitter @dangeraghty10

From Tea Olive to Holly - all the holes at Augusta rated for you...

Rory McIlroy tees off alongside the man who got the best view of his 2011 meltdown at Augusta. The in-form Irishman shouldn't be fazed but, whether Ralph Ellis is backing him to claim the Green Jacket, is another matter......

Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?...


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Augusta Hole-by-Hole Guide: More in-play ammunition for you!

US Masters RSS / / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Danger lurks at every hole on this famous course

Danger lurks at every hole on this famous course

"Birdies at the 18th are like gold-dust, and par is always an excellent score."

From Tea Olive to Holly - all the holes at Augusta rated for you

Hole 1: Tea Olive
445 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 4th hardest
Usually among the toughest holes on the course, most will be happy to hit the fairway, green in regulation and emerge with par.

Hole 2: Pink Dogwood
575 yard par-five
2011 ranking: 16th hardest

The longest of Augusta's par-fives is still well within range in two shots for almost everyone. Anything less than a birdie represents a backward step.

Hole 3: Flowering Peach
350 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 13th hardest

A classic risk-reward par-four. At just 350 yards, the third hole is well within range for the longest hitters, but the most rewarding approach tends to involve laying up short of the bunkers, leaving a full second shot with maximum control. A good birdie opportunity.

Hole 4: Flowering Crab Apple
240 yard par-three
2011 ranking: 7th hardest

Every player will be glad to get out of this long, bunker-protected hole with par.

Hole 5: Magnolia
455 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 8th hardest

A long, accurate tee-shot, avoiding penal fairway bunkers, could set up a birdie chance, but par remains a good score here.

Hole 6: Juniper
180 yard par-three
2011 ranking: 12th hardest

Though far from an easy birdie opportunity due to the complexity of a large, undulating green, this is usually the least penal of Augusta's short holes.

Hole 7: Pampas
450 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 5th hardest

Tee-to-green accuracy is the order of the day here to obtain the best fairway lie and then avoid the greenside bunkers. Par is a good score on another tough hole.

Hole 8: Yellow Jasmine
570 yard par-five
2011 ranking: 15th hardest

In the last three Masters, this has been the hardest of Augusta's long holes, although a birdie is still expected in order to maintain position, especially given the lack of opportunities elsewhere.

Hole 9: Carolina Cherry
460 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 11th hardest

The front-nine finishes with a hole that will offer up its fair share of birdies, but also penalise short second shots which roll backwards off a sloping green.

Hole 10: Camellia
495 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 6th hardest

The most brutal section of the course begins with the hole where Rory McIlroy's challenge disintegrated 12 months ago. Historically this was the toughest hole, although the 11th has recently overtaken it in that respect.

Hole 11: White Dogwood
505 yard par-four
2011 ranking: Hardest

Welcome to Amen Corner and the hardest hole on the course! A long second shot must clear the pond guarding the front-left of this green, so players often take the safer option of bailing out right, leaving a tough scramble for par. Birdies here are like gold-dust, and par is always an excellent score.

Hole 12: Golden Bell
155 yard par-three
2011 ranking: 2nd hardest

The shortest hole on the course is a superb set-up, that has ruined many a Masters challenge. It can offer a birdie for those holding the green, or potential disaster for those finding Rae's Creek or the bunkers.

Hole 13: Azalea
510 yard par-five
2011 ranking: Easiest

Amen Corner closes with a genuine eagle opportunity, although Rae's Creek runs right across the green entrance and will snare plenty of approach shots.

Hole 14: Chinese Fir
440 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 14th hardest

A lack of bunkers makes this one of the few par-fours at Augusta which amounts to a good birdie chance although, as ever, a pinpoint iron approach is essential.

Hole 15: Firethorn
530 yard par-five
2011 ranking: 17th hardest

The ultimate risk-reward par-five that will make or break many challenges. This green is usually within range and will yield plenty of eagles, but the second shot requires perfect precision to clear the water and hold the green. Those hitting it long will face a devilish eagle chip downhill towards the water.

Hole 16: Redbud
170 yard par-three
2011 ranking: 9th hardest

Although the water looks daunting, this short hole is actually a reasonable birdie chance. It was the scene of the shot many consider to be golf's greatest ever, when Tiger Woods chipped in for birdie during the final round in 2005.



Hole 17: Nandina
440 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 2nd hardest

Historically this was never a particularly difficult hole, but last year it played second hardest. The principal challenge lies in a heavily sloping green, making the pin position critical to it's playability.

Hole 18: Holly
465 yard par-four
2011 ranking: 10th hardest

While not the toughest closing hole in golf by any means, the 18th will take its share of double-bogey victims over the week. The key challenge is avoiding the bunkers on the left off the tee. If finding the fairway, birdie becomes a realistic possibility.

Rory McIlroy tees off alongside the man who got the best view of his 2011 meltdown at Augusta. The in-form Irishman shouldn't be fazed but, whether Ralph Ellis is backing him to claim the Green Jacket, is another matter......

Can Charl get his Masters defence off to a strong start? Will Louis produce the goods at Augusta? Does Rickie have a chance against Rose and Immelman? Is Cabrera going to find either Rory or Bubba too strong? For Dan...

Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?...


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Woods v McIlroy: Tiger has his claws out for Rory at Augusta

US Masters RSS / / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

McIlroy and Woods - a burgeoning rivalry

McIlroy and Woods - a burgeoning rivalry

"McIlroy is more settled both professionally and personally. He's learned to trust his ability under the gun. This time round he won’t panic if he lets a stroke or two slip away."

Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?


A few months ago, many hacks were saying there was no way back for Tiger Woods and no stopping Rory McIlroy. Now, as the US Masters looms in to view, most of those same hacks are saying the only man who can stop Rory McIlroy is Tiger Woods. Golf can be a fickle game - and it seems to have fostered a press corps which reflects its very nature.

The truth, of course, is that Tiger has been on the way back for a while. All you had to do was look at his steadily improving game since the back-end of last year and the progress reports. Admittedly, the progress reports from the great man himself were subjective, but his fellow pros and practice partners all suggested he was on the verge of something great.

Those players included Arjun Atwal, Robert Allenby, Ernie Els and even Phil Mickelson - expert witnesses for the defence. All Woods needed was a win. And after a couple of near-misses, it came a fortnight back at Bay Hill where he blitzed a stellar field by five shots. The prosecution's case quickly folded and Woods was acquitted on charges of masquerading as the game's greatest.

Tiger was free to roam around his natural habitat of Augusta National. He was even re-installed as a firm favourite (currently available at [6.2] to back). However, a return to the good old days among these green Georgia pastures is by no means assured. The golfing landscape has changed and that's largely due to the emergence of McIlroy ([7.4] to back) a successful and hungry predator who has been stealthily stalking, waiting on the return of a healthy Tiger.

This time last year, McIlroy still had much to prove. His final-round implosion at Augusta was one of the biggest falls from grace in Masters history - and even left him languishing outside the top-ten. Rather than an Aladdin on the threshold of The Cave of Wonders, he was a young street rat struggling for survival and composure.

After the breakdown, though, came the breakthrough. And it arrived in quite spectacular fashion with his crowning procession at Congressional, leading from flag-fall to win by eight shots. The wunderkind had grown up. He hasn't looked back since, winning twice and finished no lower than third in nine of his last 12 events. His win at the Honda Classic, where he coolly staved off a charging Woods even handed him the number one ranking - making him its second-youngest incumbent (at 22) behind Tiger (21).

True, Luke Donald has borrowed top-dog status in the interim (as McIlroy took his now annual sabbatical to prepare for the Masters). But like Easter weekend itself, it's only lent. And speaking of Easter weekend, there can be no ignoring its propensity for comebacks from the dead. McIlroy, for his part, now has to deal with the Tiger's second coming. Not that the Ulsterman sounds concerned. "It's great for the game. I want to test myself against the best, at their best. And for me, that means going down the stretch with Tiger." Bring it on.

Of course, Woods' renaissance does provide the neat side-effect of deflecting some of the attention away from McIlroy. "I'm going in with a lot more scrutiny because of what happened last year," he continued. "It's just something that I'll have to deal with but Tiger's win certainly helps." In any case, McIlroy is a totally different proposition this term after a milestone 2011 campaign. He is more settled both professionally and personally and has learned to trust his ability under the gun. This time round he won't panic if he lets a stroke or two slip away.

Nevertheless, Woods remains the consummate and proven major performer with four Green Jackets and numerous close shaves. Which is probably why he can afford to sound the more phlegmatic of the pair. "Listen, I've gone into Augusta with wins and without wins. You're looking for one week, that's all. I understand how to play Augusta National. It's just a matter of executing the game plan."

That said, Tiger hasn't executed his gameplan since the 2008 US Open, marooned on 14 majors - four short of Jack Nicklaus' record haul. Time was when passing that mark was simply a matter of time. Now the man with time on his side isn't Woods but McIlroy. Tiger's very urgency could be the one thing that undoes his challenge this week.

Does that leave the door ajar for McIlroy? Well, yes and no. The trouble with contests billed as two-horse races is that a dark horse often arrives to spoil the party. Take this year's Gold Cup for example, a supposed straight duel between Kauto Star and Long Run. The result: one pulled up, the other finished third. Phil Mickelson, who can lay claim to the best course form of anyone in the field, is always a threat and will be popular with those who like to back the outsider of three. Then there's the small matter of the other 94 runners, many of whom are decidedly in-form.

However, what is for certain is that fans can rejoice in a burgeoning new rivalry that we looked set to miss out on. The express train to major greatness had asked Tiger to hop off at Platform 14 and picked up Rory in his place. It was a sliding doors moment. Praise be that the driver had a change of heart and let Tiger back on. Next stop: Augusta.

What will it take to win the year's first major? Our man takes a look at past results and key trends at Augusta National and he also gives the reasoning behind his eight selections......

A trio of American golfers make appeal in the top-10 finish market, says Paul Krishnamurty...

Many will contend, only one will win. Here are five players who can finish up the field to reward an investment in the top 20 finish market...


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April 4, 2012

US Masters Tips: Augusta lover Scott the top Aussie bet

US Masters RSS / / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Adam Scott, pictured during practice this week, loves Augusta

Adam Scott, pictured during practice this week, loves Augusta

"If there is to be a surprise, it could come from John Senden (an attractive [10.0] to back) whose distance control should allow him to find the right shelves of these notorious greens."

Adam Scott gets good vibes from Augusta and that's giving Romily Evans good vibes as he studies the Top Australian market for the 2012 Masters

Greg Norman, for so long the standard-bearer of Australian golf, always came up a whisker shy of Masters glory. And at first glance the generation which followed him appears similarly doomed. Just take last year at Augusta where Adam Scott, Jason Day and Geoff Ogilvy all came up agonisingly short in the final analysis.

Scott and Day played together in that final round and inspired each other to the giddy heights of second place. Trouble was: they ran into the best closing finish in Masters history from Charl Schwartzel, who made birdie on the final four holes. No crime there.

More worrying, perhaps, is their combined lack of recent form. Day hasn't been better than 20th in any of his stateside outings this season, while Scott has only played nine competitive rounds and has taken the last three weeks off. Still, the latter move was a premeditated attempt by Scott to practice and peak for the Masters, following the lead of Rory McIlroy.

It's a tournament which offers the 31-year-old his best chance of a major. And Scott himself concurs: "Every time I walk out on the course, I feel I can shoot a good score no matter how I'm hitting it."

Those are bold words but they were adeptly backed up in 2011 when for the first time, he truly looked comfortable on the greens with his broomhandle putter (his only three-stab came at the first hole). Scott is prohibitively priced for this market (trading at [3.05] to back) but it's a fair price when you consider his lack of opposition.

The next three in the market - Messrs Day, Ogilvy and Aaron Baddeley - are all putting machines whose ball-striking sometimes lets them down. The flatstick is a real weapon on Augusta's speedy surfaces but if you can't put the ball in position with your iron-play, it's rendered a redundant skill.

Therefore, if there is to be a surprise, it could come from John Senden (an attractive [10.0] to back) whose distance control should allow him to find the right shelves of these notorious greens.

Recommended Bet
Back Adam Scott @ [3.1]
Back John Senden @ [10.0]

There's some serious quality in the Top US Player market with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson dominating matters. But with the punters focused on those two, could there be value backing another American at a massive price?...

A small stakes wager on two of the forgotten men of British and Irish golf might just yield a profit in the top UK & Ireland market, suggests Romily Evans...

There are five Spanish players in the Masters lineup and the favourite is a justifiably short price to finish above his compatriots, says Romily Evans...


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March 24, 2012

US Masters Trends: Augusta dos and don'ts...

The Punter RSS / / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Charl Schwartzel celebrates his historical fourth birdie in-a-row on the final hole last year

Charl Schwartzel celebrates his historical fourth birdie in-a-row on the final hole last year

“Year after year, the man that dons the famous green jacket has putted with aplomb - only Luke Donald, who finished tied fourth, putted better than Schwartzel last year.”

Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, looks forward to the year's first major, highlighting trends to follow and pitfalls to avoid at the US Masters

Forget daffodils, snowdrops and birdsong, the Cheltenham Festival hints at the onset of spring and the US Masters announces its arrival.

Its position in the calendar isn't the only reason I await the year's first major so eagerly though. With its famous azaleas, dogwoods and perfectly manicured fairways, Augusta sure is easy on the eye and I can't be the only one who fondly remembers the pre-Sky Sports days when the US Masters was one of the few treats us golf fans got, but the real reason I've warmed to the event so much is that it's a great tournament to bet on.

The magical Masters is less than a fortnight away now, so with the Georgia venue back on my mind, here's a few Augusta Do's and Don'ts.

Do back an outsider if you fancy one. Four of the last five winners have started the week at triple-figure odds. With a superb Masters pedigree, Phil Mickelson surprised no one when he won here for the third time two years ago but very few picked out last year's victor Charl Schwartzel, nor the three that preceded Mickelson. Zach Johnson, Trevor Immelman and Angel Cabrera were all shock winners.

Don't take any notice of the no Aussie winner stat. It's true that no player from Down Under has triumphed yet but there's absolutely no reason why. Greg Norman came closest, famously blowing a six shot lead with a round to go in 1996, and Adam Scott wasn't far away last year either. He traded at a low of [1.39] before Schwartzel's birdie blitz and two fellow Aussies were also placed. Jason Day tied Scott for second and Geoff Ogilvy finished tied fourth. There are plenty of contenders from Down Under again this year and it's not a stat to give any credence to.

Do back a hole-in-one on day four
. There have been seven aces in the last eight years and six have them have come on the 16th hole on Sunday. I see no reason for the organisers to end the practice of placing the pin in a favourable spot there and if you wait until the end of play on Saturday before backing Yes in the Hole-In-One market you may well get rewarded handsomely.

Don't back a debutant
. Jason Day's 276 total last year was the lowest for a first-timer and a magnificent effort but other than the first two champs (Horton Smith in 1934 and Gene Sarazen a year later), Fuzzy Zoeller, back in 1979, is still the only other player to win on debut.

Do get involved in-running
and do concentrate on the leaders. Schwartzel was tied 7th after round one last year and that's the furthest back any winner's been in six years after day one.

Don't back dodgy putters or poor scramblers. It's very hard to nail down exactly what constitutes the perfect Augusta type- hence the big price winners of late! Length off the tee is a distinct advantage but plenty of short hitters have won. Recent champions Zach Johnson and Mike Weir are hardly big bombers and Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O'Meara and Ben Crenshaw weren't renowned for getting it out there off the tee either. Finding the greens with regularity won't harm your cause and when you do miss them, keeping mistakes to a minimum is crucial, so excellent scrambling is key, but most important of all is putting. Year after year, the man that dons the famous green jacket has putted with aplomb - only Luke Donald, who finished tied fourth, putted better than Schwartzel last year.

Do put the radio on if you're serious about trading. It can drive you bonkers trying to watch the event on TV whilst listening to it on the radio at that same time but if you're serious about making it a profitable week, it may just be worth it.

Don't back anyone outside the final pairing on Sunday. Schwartzel benefited from Rory McIlroy's spectacular collapse last year and a Stuart Appleby stumble let in Zach Johnson in 2007 but they're the only two winners not to have started day four in the final two-ball in the last 20 years.

And finally, do enjoy the week. It's a joy from start to finish and it's very nearly here.

Our man's off to a poor start in Morocco, where they've only just started playing round two, but it's better news in Florida where both his picks start well, and he's got his eye on Tiger Woods too now......

With so little course form to go on, Steve looks to last week for the bulk of his five selections at this week's Race To Dubai event......

The Punter takes a look at this week's PGA Tour event, where Tiger Woods bids to win his seventh Arnold Palmer Invitational......


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March 18, 2012

US Masters Trends: How to find the identikit Augusta champion

US Masters RSS / / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Is Nick Watney the next Masters champion?

Is Nick Watney the next Masters champion?

"Champions over the last 20 years had already played an average 8.65 Masters, with only four making fewer than six appearances."

With the first major of the year always played on the same course there's plenty of history and statistics to go through in an attempt to find the 2012 winner.

Brits have a poor recent record. Aussies even more so.
In an era when the UK boasts the world's top-three ranked players, following this rule defies both the market and basic logic. Nevertheless, Augusta has not been a happy hunting ground recently for Brits, with none of our boys winning since Nick Faldo in 1996. Still, at least our stats compare very favourably to Australia, who have never provided a Masters champion.

Thirty-somethings with plenty of Augusta experience tend to fare best
At 26, Charl Schwartzel rather bucked this trend last year but 11 of the last 20 champions were in their 30s and only Tiger Woods won at a younger age than Schwartzel. A second stat, therefore, that counts against 22 year-old, British, tournament favourite Rory McIlroy and it doesn't bode well for third favourite Phil Mickelson either, who will be bidding to become the first over-40 to win since Mark O'Meara in 1998. The average age during the last 20 years was 32.55.

Debutant winners very rare, champions tend to have plenty of Augusta experience
Champions over the last 20 years had already played an average 8.65 Masters, with only four making fewer than six appearances. Once again Schwartzel and Woods bucked this trend by winning on their second attempt. Unsurprisingly on a layout where course knowledge offers a huge advantage, no debutant has won since 1979. Keegan Bradley backers beware!

Favour multiple winners and proven major champions
Eleven of the last 20 winners were already major champions, of whom nine were winning at least their second Masters title. Even the unlikeliest champions were multiple winners on the European or PGA tours, besides one exception. Zach Johnson had only won once on the PGA Tour, although he did have a couple more to his name on the competitive Nationwide Tour. Otherwise, the least prolific was Angel Cabrera, who had only four previous titles to his name although the Argentinian was hardly short of credentials, having already won a US Open. Of the players currently trading below [100.0], this trend counts against Bradley, Jason Day, Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler.

Shortlist
If sticking strictly to the above four trends, only five players currently trading below [100.0] meet all the criteria. They are Tiger Woods, Nick Watney, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson and Brandt Snedeker. All are multiple winners, in their thirties, making at least their fourth appearance at Augusta. Many more would qualify if considering players currently trading in triple-figures and given that four of the last five Masters winners began the week at well above [100.0], looking for outsiders might well be the best plan.

With Rory McIlroy gobbling up attention at the head of the market punters are forgetting about other Augusta contenders with some spectacular prices available on good players with a genuine chance of Masters glory, says Paul Krishnamurty...

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....


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February 28, 2012

Masters 2012: Five Augusta clues to take from the Matchplay

US Masters RSS / / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Is Tiger a fading force, or is he slowly tuning his game up?

Is Tiger a fading force, or is he slowly tuning his game up?

"Given the stellar form of his main rivals over the past few weeks, it is becoming impossible to justify Tiger's status as joint-favourite for the Masters."

With the first big event of 2012 completed and just five weeks until the Masters, what did we learn from the World Matchplay? Paul Krishnamurty weighs up the performances and progress of the big-names.

Tiger Woods is a false favourite for Augusta
Time is running out for Tiger to re-assert his credentials, before his supporters give up on him ever recapturing the glory days. Prior to the World Matchplay, he'd looked in decent enough nick, but lacking the confidence and ruthlessness in contention that made him the greatest ever. At Dove Mountain, Woods looked all at sea, lucky to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano before losing in the last-16, without Nick Watney having to produce his best golf. Given the stellar form of his main rivals over the past few weeks, it is becoming impossible to justify Tiger's status as joint-favourite for the Masters.

Rory McIlroy seems certain to contend
In contrast, co-favourite Rory keeps improving and is becoming impossible to keep out of the frame. McIlroy wasn't at his best over the whole week at Dove Mountain, and doesn't look particularly well suited to matchplay, yet still reached the final. Most encouraging was how he upped his game when presented with the definitive test of a semi-final against Lee Westwood. Even despite a persistently poor conversion ratio, in-play punters keep being rewarded for backing Rory pre-tournament, with Sunday's second place his tenth top-five finish in 11 starts. It would take a brave man to lay [8.2] for Augusta under the circumstances.

Lee Westwood still can't shed his 'nearly man' reputation
A similar point could be made about Lee Westwood's in-running credentials, but it is doubtful the Worksop Wonder will take any consolation from that. He was extremely frustrated after failing to finish off the Dubai Desert Classic recently, and must have come away from Arizona wondering what he has to do in order to win a big, career-defining title. His golf was peerless for the first four rounds, yet remains without either a Major or World Golf Championship to his name.

Luke Donald's world number one status looks extremely shaky
The biggest surprise of the week was defending champion Luke Donald's opening day trouncing at the hands of Ernie Els, continuing a terrible start to the season. Granted it's early days but following on from 48th and 56th place finishes, Donald is so far unrecognisable from the ultra-consistent character who dominated last season. Perhaps the pressure of being world number one is getting to him, or perhaps 2011 was just as good as it will ever get for Luke. Either way, his Masters credentials are fading fast.

Hunter Mahan is rapidly becoming a big tournament specialist
Lets take nothing away from the new World Matchplay champion. That was Mahan's second WGC title, adding to the 2010 Bridgestone Invitational, and confirms this superb ball-striker has the game for big occasions on championship courses. At the current odds of [46.0], there are worse bets for the Masters, especially as his course record takes the eye. It usually takes several attempts to learn Augusta's secrets, and Hunter has already made an impression with top-tens in 2009 and 2010. The next will be his fifth attempt as a pro, which is just about the right length of apprenticeship.

It was a disappointing putting performance from Tiger Woods last Sunday, one that coincided with a very hot putter in the hands of Phil Mickelson. But he's looking dangerous and yet another win at the US Masters is a conceivable...

Ralph Ellis can't see dual Money List champ Luke Donald winning SPOTY but he likes his chances at The Masters...

No-one doubts that Rory McIlroy suffered a Masters meltdown but that doesn't mean we write him off entirely, says Paul Krishnamurty. In fact there's much to learn from Augusta winner Charl Schwartzel......


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April 2, 2011

The In-Play betting guide to Augusta

US Masters RSS / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lay before your man tees off on 18

Lay before your man tees off on 18

"Augusta is renowned as a front-runners' track, with 19 of the last 20 winners coming from Sunday's final group. Why? Because most of the birdies and eagles on what is otherwise a very tough course, arrive on four holes, all par-5s."

It's not easy to make a mint betting in-running at Augusta but take heed of these five pointers from Paul Krishnamurty before making your In-Play decisions


Never forget that Augusta is a front-runners' course
Arguably the principal attraction of betting in-running is the scope to 'back high, lay low'. Due to the nature of the sport - big fields, big prices, the potential for disaster holes - this strategy is particularly popular with golf punters, and rightly so.

Most events offer numerous such opportunities, and those with the bravery to take on the front-runners and favourites must surely have enjoyed a bumper payout at Bay Hill and Andalucia last weekend. While foolish favourite backers were steaming in at short odds-on to back the likes of Mark Foster and Steve Marino, the shrewdies were either taking them on, or building up big-priced positions about players who would soon be challenging for the lead.

Of course, it isn't quite so simple. Every course is different, and an important lesson for punters to learn this week is that the Masters rarely offers such opportunities. Augusta is renowned as a front-runners' track, with 19 of the last 20 winners coming from Sunday's final group. Why? Because most of the birdies and eagles on what is otherwise a very tough course, arrive on four holes, all par-5s. Especially given some evil Sunday pin positions, it is set up for the man two shots clear, playing conservatively, waiting to attack the par-fives while his opponents are punished for playing too aggressively elsewhere.

That doesn't mean that money can't be made by trading players at big prices, from off the pace. That strategy would have paid off last year with final day chargers Anthony Kim and KJ Choi, so long as bets were laid back at the opportune moment. Such successful timing is the key, and in order to get it right, you need to know the course.

How to play the front-nine
The opening hole 'Tea Olive' is usually one of the toughest of the front-nine, so it makes little sense to back your man until he's played it, or is at least safely on the green in regulation, putting for realistic birdie. Why take the risk of a bad start, especially when there are two excellent birdie opportunities on the horizon?

Now the fun begins. The 2nd is a par-5, and the 3rd is the easiest par-4 on the course. Players really need to capitalise on these early opportunities, as there will be precious few more throughout the remainder of the front-nine. Only the par-5 8th averages under par, and even that is the least generous of the long holes.

Lay players before they reach Amen Corner
Augusta's most famous stretch of holes begins on the 11th, but the trouble actually begins earlier. The 10th hole, 'Cammelia', played the hardest on the course last year, and third hardest in 2009. The 11th, 'White Dogwood', is usually even tougher. At over 500 yards with water down the left, this is a potential disaster hole. Into the wind, many players are unable to reach in two. The par-three 12th 'Golden Bell' is no picnic either, ranking seventh hardest last year and second in 2009. This is the hole likeliest to produce a triple-bogey or worse. Year in, year out, numerous challenges end in disaster during this stretch of three holes, making it the ideal time to lay.

Back players before they play the 13th
Just as holes 10-12 are where Green Jackets are invariably lost, the next three holes are where the Masters is usually won. Birdies and eagles are within range for pretty much everyone on the 13th and 15th, both par-5s that always rank among the three easiest holes on the course. Of course it doesn't always work out so simply, as there is water in play on both holes, but this is the section of the round where it makes most sense to back players to make their move. It also helps that the 14th is the second easiest par-4 on the course.

Bail out before the tee-shot on 18
After the 15th, birdies become pretty scarce once again, which explains why we've had relatively few late turnarounds in this major. The 16th on Sunday is a good risk-reward affair, offering either hole-in-one or bogey potential. While this course isn't one renowned for disastrous finishes, (compared to say a Carnoustie or Sawgrass), don't make the mistake of thinking your man's job is complete before the 18th hole, 'Holly'. If not the toughest hole on the course, ranking ninth and eighth in the last two renewals, there are still plenty of perils, particularly the bunkers that catch so many slightly errant drives. As it yields few birdies, there is little to gain from hanging on to a 'back' position.

Martin Laird won on the USPGA Tour this week and deserves full credit for his achievements but there was also an impressive third-place finish for Justin Rose, who revealed the bizarre secret to his putting success....

Mike Norman has been quite vocal in opposing Tiger Woods since he returned to the game, and now he is pleading for your help to explain why the great man is favourite to win next week's US Masters....

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......


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