Showing posts with label opening. Show all posts
Showing posts with label opening. Show all posts
August 11, 2013
April 10, 2012
2000 Guineas: Oxx's Akeed misses opening Classic with injury
News 
/ Timeform / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment Can Born To Sea emulate half-brother Sea The Stars (yellow)?
"Oxx's sole 2000 Guineas representative is now likely to be Born To Sea ([12.0])..."
Akeed Mofeed, well backed in recent days for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, will miss the race through injury.
Trainer John Oxx has been forced to rule his Timeform 114p-rated colt out of the first Classic of the season after he found him to be lame.
Bruce Raymond, racing manager to owner Jaber Abdullah, said: "It was a bit of a shock when John told me.
"He'll be fine in the long-term and he'll only miss a week but it's enough to force him out of the Guineas unfortunately."
A five-length winner of a Leopardstown maiden in September, he was beaten in the Beresford Stakes on his last start at two when he was reportedly unsuited by the testing ground.
Raymond added that although the sun of Dubawi still had the option of the Guineas up until this setback, Oxx had always viewed him more as a Derby (currently trading at [15.0] for Epsom version) horse.
"It's only a strain, it's nothing serious, but John thought it better not to run in the Guineas," he continued.
"Anyway, he's always thought the Derby would be more his race, even last year.
"The plan now is to run him in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. That's the tried and tested route for a lot of the Irish Derby horses.
"It's a shame but there we go. He'd been a bit worried about him for the last few days and now we know where we stand."
Despite his injury, Akeed Mofeed, who features in the latest edition of Timeform Horses to Follow 2012, is still a horse to keep well on side this year.
Oxx's sole 2000 Guineas representative is now likely to be Born To Sea ([12.0]), with the market headed by Camelot at [4.1] and substantial gamble Most Improved at [5.7].
..........
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Thomas Gibney's Lion Na Bearnai showed thorough stamina reserves to deny the Edward o'Grady-trained Out Now in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse......
Get Me Out Of Here finally landed the decent prize his consistent efforts have deserved when winning the Grade Two Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle at Fairyhouse......
April 5, 2012
Masters Tips: Three-ball bets for the opening day in Augusta
US Masters / Dan Geraghty / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Does Charl offer first day value?
"Angel Cabrera [4.3] has seen a flood of support following his early showing at the Shell Houston Open (opened with a 65), but the former Masters champion is really up against it on day one playing with wonder boy Rory McIlroy and the mercurial Bubba Watson."
Can Charl get his Masters defence off to a strong start? Will Louis produce the goods at Augusta? Does Rickie have a chance against Rose and Immelman? Is Cabrera going to find either Rory or Bubba too strong? For Dan Geraghty the answer to all of the above is yes!
There is something of a bandwagon forming for Keegan Bradley, his price has been steadily contracting for weeks now. He's certainly a player with a lot of nerve and a bright future but I'm surprised he is available at the same price in his three-ball as defending champion Charl Schwartzel [2.14]. This is Bradley's debut at Augusta, Charl's extra experience will be hard to match on day one. No disrespect to amateur Kelly Kraft (the third member of the three ball) but this one looks a match.
Charl's great friend Louis Oosthuizen [2.86] suffered an unfortunate collapse on Sunday last week when leading the Shell Houston Open, however, he bounced back well towards the end of his round to finish solo third. That event is seen as a great warm-up for Augusta, it's a fairly similar test so I'm happy to overlook Oosthuizen's three missed Augusta cuts. He's clearly coming into this week in good form and it's his second Masters as a Major champion. His playing partners are Mark Wilson (who has a disappointing record in Majors) and Graeme McDowell who has also missed his last two cuts at the Masters.
I really like the look of Rickie Fowler's price [3.3] in his day one three ball. He played well without scoring great in Houston last time out, this was backed up by this quote from him afterwards "Embarrassing score on the weekend but my main goal this week was to get ready for Augusta... didn't show but I feel really good about my game". Fowler finished 38th on debut last year, look for him to improve on that this time around. He has a tough grouping for the first two days, with past champion Trevor Immelman and Justin Rose, but the price is right!
Angel Cabrera [4.3] has seen a flood of support following his early showing at the Shell Houston Open (opened with a 65), but the former Masters champion is really up against it on day one playing with wonder boy Rory McIlroy and the mercurial Bubba Watson, who has been in the top 20 on every single start this season (seven appearances). It's hard to see him finishing the day on top and is worth a lay at [4.3].
Recommended Bets
2pts Back Charl Schwartzel @ [2.1]
2pts Back Louis Oosthuizen @ [2.86]
1pt Back Rickie Fowler @ [3.3]
1pt Lay Angel Cabrera @ [4.3]
*All the above bets are available in-play on betfair
Season Profit / Loss: -14.22
*Follow me on twitter @dangeraghty10
From Tea Olive to Holly - all the holes at Augusta rated for you...
Rory McIlroy tees off alongside the man who got the best view of his 2011 meltdown at Augusta. The in-form Irishman shouldn't be fazed but, whether Ralph Ellis is backing him to claim the Green Jacket, is another matter......
Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?...
January 26, 2012
Abu Dhabi Championship Betting: Opening day three-ball tips
Three Ball Bets / Dan Geraghty / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy will be joined by Luke Donald for a marquee three-ball on Thursday morning
"The great Tiger Woods is [3.1] to win a three ball and I'm having some of that."
There's a phenomenal amount of golfing of talent to choose from in Abu Dhabi this week so who is Dan Geraghty's money on?
I guess Brandt Snedeker wasn't rusty then! Lesson (probably not) learnt, beware the injured golfer. Bill Haas stuttered to a 71 and was beaten by a full 7 shots by the aforementioned Snedeker, while Brendon De Jonge won by 11 shots over Tim Herron to keep last week from being too disastrous.
There are two fantastic tournaments to keep us busy this week. One in Abu Dhabi and the other at Torrey Pines.
There is a mouthwatering line-up at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship, a line-up so strong that world number one Luke Donald finds himself priced at [15.0] to win with Martin kaymer, Rory and Tiger ahead of him in the betting. Phew, this is going to be a scorcher!
But on to the three-ball bets.
Joost Luiten [2.8] struggled badly in the rain and wind during the weekend at Fancourt last week. However, I'm expecting an improved performance this week as prior to Fancourt, Luiten spent the first part of his year practising in the Dubai sun.
The Dutchman finished 2011 very strongly, his final 10 tournaments bringing five top-10 finishes, including his first win (Iskandar Johor Open at the end of November) and now that he is over his injury problems he will no doubt be dreaming of his first Ryder Cup. Back Joost to see off Niclas Colsaerts, whose mind must be fried after he won and lost last weeks tournament numerous times and Henrik Stenson who hasn't played much golf in recent times (beware the injured golfer, oo er).
It's been well documented that the South Africans have dominated the early European Tour schedule but - alas the tour has moved on to pastures new - perhaps now we have an opportunity to oppose some of them. Branden Grace has been in wonderful form in his home country but on an unfamiliar course in a different continent is worth opposing in his first day three ball with Alexander Noren [2.75] who has has plenty of experience here as well as some good results, including an 11th placed finish in 2008.
The great Tiger Woods is [3.1] to win a three ball and I'm having some of that. It is possibly the best three ball line up I've ever seen (Donald, McIlroy) but it's a new season, he's coming off the back of a W (of sorts) and at the prices I'm happy to pay my money, take my chance and sit back and watch nearly every shot the trio hit.
Recommended Bets
2pt Back Joost Luiten @ [2.8]
1pt Back Noren @ [2.75]
1pt Back Woods @ [3.1]
Running Profit/Loss: - 1.74 points
Dan Geraghty picks the best first day bets at the first PGA Tour event of the West Coast Swing...
With The Punter covering both main tours in his weekly column we have set Dan Geraghty a new test - find us three-ball winners every week. He kicks off at the Joburg Open where a golfer making a new start...
March 9, 2011
WGC-CA Championship Three-Ball Tips: Five bets for the opening day
Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Is G-Mac the best golfer in the world at the moment?
"Twelve months ago, had Graeme McDowell found himself in a three-ball against Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, he would have been a rank outsider. Now he's the favourite, and rightly so."
There are some marquee groups teeing off at Doral tomorrow but there's value to be found right through the card on day one of the latest WGC event.
5pts Aaron Baddeley @ [2.4] (vs Hoffman, Points)
Starting Time: 16.20
The opening round at Doral includes some of the most prestigious 3-balls seen all year, but the very best value can be found in a relatively low-key group. I've already made the case for Aaron Baddeley in my Find Me a 100 Winner column, and the Aussie can get us off to a good start in the opening group against a couple of markedly inferior opponents.
Whereas Baddeley has shown some of the best early season form, winning at Riviera and ranking sixth for greens in regulation overall, Hoffman has done nothing since last summer. His performance at the World Matchplay was particularly dire. Pebble Beach winner D A Points will probably set a higher benchmark. That victory didn't come completely out of the blue, as he had made the top-five a fortnight earlier at Torrey Pines, but Points remains no more than a journeyman pro, rather out of his depth at this level.
5pts Nick Watney @ [2.3] (vs Scott, Singh)
Starting Time: 16.41
A calm weather forecast for Doral is expected to ensure a birdie-fest, for which weak putters need not apply. Watney not only represents the best recent form of this trio, but is leagues apart when it comes to putting. Scott, who hit 77/82 last week, has endured a miserable time at Doral since losing confidence with the flat stick, and should be opposed in any way possible.
The same argument has applied to Vijay Singh in recent times, but he has holed a few more than usual this year, and as a course specialist can't be written off. Nevertheless, Vijay is well behind Watney in golf's pecking order these days, especially in a low-scoring contest. Nick was a slightly unlucky runner-up here in 2009, and after seven straight top-25s including five top-six finishes, is a rock solid candidate for the title.
2pts Graeme McDowell @ [2.8] (Woods, Mickelson)
Starting Time: 16.51
Possibly the clearest illustration of the ongoing changes at golf's top table can be found in the betting for this marquee group. Twelve months ago, had Graeme McDowell found himself in a three-ball against Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, he would have been a rank outsider. Now he's the favourite, and rightly so.
For my money, he's the hottest player in the world right now. Since Tiger's bubble burst and Mickelson won his last event, (the Masters), Gmac has won four titles, starred in the Ryder Cup and overtaken those two American legends in the world rankings. He has been virtually impossible to keep out of contention since last summer, and even in rare blips like last week, finished like a train to make the top-ten. By contrast, Mickelson has only seriously contended once since Gmac got the better of him at the US Open. As for Tiger, he is unbackable on recent evidence.
4pts Matt Kuchar @ [2.4] (Furyk, Els)
Starting Time: 17.44
Another legend who simply cannot be backed right now is defending champion Ernie Els, who was beaten by 25 shots in Sunday's Honda Classic. Most of his problems stem from the putter, which cannot bode well for this week's test. Likewise, Jim Furyk is a former Doral champion also badly struggling with his game at the moment, putting up a particularly inept display at the World Matchplay.
The smart bet has to be the ultra-consistent Kuchar, who has become one of the most reliable weekly golfing investments. The 2010 PGA Tour Money List champ has started 2011 in similar vein, registering three top-sevens out of five strokeplay starts, and winning five matches out of six at the World Matchplay.
2pts Martin Kaymer @ [2.5] (Donald, Westwood)
Starting Time: 17.54
In what must surely be a first, this all-European group boasts the world's top-three players, with the man currently in pole position taken to justify favouritism. Separating Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood and Luke Donald over a whole season will be far from straightforward, but the German stands out here on course form.
Neither Westwood or Donald has ever shown any great aptitude for Doral. Lee's best result from three is 30th, Luke's best from sixth is 20th. In contrast, Kaymer finished third last year and has a golden opportunity to make amends for that defeat to Donald in the World Matchplay final.
There are some marquee groups teeing off at Doral tomorrow but there's value to be found right through the card on day one of the latest WGC event....
There's no substitute for winning golf tournaments says Mike Norman, and that means his selection in the Winner market this week is an automatic choice....
No player splits golf fans more than Phil Mickelson and Paul Krishnamurty is up for opposing the world no.4 with a trio of big-hitting, longer priced opponents...
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