Coolmore Classic Preview: Another for Demi

Weight-adjusted Timeform ratings suggest three-year-olds could regain their dominance this afternoon with Dear Demi rated marginally ahead of Flying Snitzel and Bennetta in what is a very evenly graded field, making value the key for any punter wanting a wager...

The Group 1 Coolmore Classic for fillies and mares over 1500m at Rosehill has assembled the usual strong line up of the fairer sex, headed in the quality handicap by multiple Group 1-winning mare Streama...

First run in 1973, the Coolmore Classic has been won by some of Australia's finest female gallopers, including the mighty Sunline who won the feature twice (2000/2002), Typhoon Tracy, Alverta, Bounding Away and Emancipation.

The race was once considered the domain for three-year-old fillies, but in the last three years the older mares have had the edge with Ofcourseican (2012), Aloha (2011) and Alverta (2010) scoring, Typhoon Tracy the last three-year-old to win in 2009 with the youngsters winning five of the previous ten renewals including that win.

Weight-adjusted Timeform ratings suggest three-year-olds could regain their dominance this afternoon with Dear Demi rated marginally ahead of Flying Snitzel and Bennetta in what is a very evenly graded field, making value the key for any punter wanting a wager. Owned by John Singleton, Dear Demi will be aiming to give the popular owner of Strawberry Hill Stud a second win in the race, Singleton having already won the race in 2007 with another three-year-old Tuesday Joy ridden by Darren Beadman.

In fact there are similarities between the two fillies coming into the Coolmore. Tuesday Joy had won the Wakeful Stakes and was runner up in the VRC Oaks in Melbourne during the spring and was second in the Surround Stakes prior to her storming win the Coolmore. On the other hand, Dear Demi was unlucky in the Wakeful Stakes before winning the VRC Oaks as well as the Surround Stakes last start. Both rated similarly with Timeform on 118.

Singleton also owned Gentle Genius who started at 200-1 when narrowly beaten in a close finish by Sunline in her second Coolmore win in 2002. As for Dear Demi this afternoon, I believe she can improve further as she currently sits around four pounds below her peak rating and could not have been more impressive last start winning the Surround Stakes from Driefontein, showing a great turn of foot in the closing stages after settling second last early.

So quickly did she arrive at the finish that race rider Jim Cassidy half eased her down to win by a neck. That was Cassidy's second win aboard the filly having been atop her in the VRC Oaks. Today he hopes to post a third win in the Coolmore having already been successful on Shamekha (2004) and Flitter (1995). On paper, there should be good speed in the race with three or four go forward types. Cassidy should be able to settle Dear Demi worst than midfield early and produce her when the front runners start gasping for air.

Last start impressive Flemington winner Flying Snitzel, Timeform rated 114, is hard to overlook as a genuine improver. After an even effort when resuming in the Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill, trainer Gerald Ryan sent the filly to Melbourne for the G2 Kewney Stakes at Flemington over 1400m.

Coming off a 21 day break since her first up run she did not disappoint. Ridden far more patiently by Craig Williams than had been the case to that time, Flying Snitzel unleashed a devastating burst of acceleration taking her from 10th place 200m from home to an idling length and a quarter win.

Clearly the gear change of removing the blinkers and putting winkers on combined with a more patient ride led to a new peak performance. Craig Williams stays atop the filly today and a similar ride combined with an additional 100m in distance should see her right in the finish.

The lightly-raced filly Bennetta is deserving of another chance. Up until last start she had carried all before her in three previous runs culminating in an impressive Light Fingers Stakes victory from Ichihara, a form line that now looks substantial after that filly's win in last Saturday's Eskimo Prince Quality under a big weight. However, running as an even money favourite in the Surround last time out Bennetta was never a winning hope getting home meekly after a wide run facing the breeze at Warwick Farm.

It would be wise to overlook that run by Bennetta. She has a Timeform rating of 115 and with crack rider Glen Boss to take over pilot duties combined with a four kilo weight drop she certainly has a winning weight if she can reproduce her best. The fact Glen Boss who shares the mantle with Cassidy as the most successful Coolmore riders in the race is no burden for her either, the three-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey has already won the Coolmore aboard Aloha (2011) and Typhoon Tracy (2009).

The history of the Coolmore is definitely against those horses highly weighted. Apart from Sunline who was a freak, no winner has carried more than 56 kgs to win in the last 20 years. Early favourite Steps In Time, Streama and Red Tracer are all handicapped above 56kgs and more importantly all were unplaced last year carrying less weight than today. 

Older mares Appearance and Zurella loom as prospects along with the Gai Waterhouse trained three-year-old Driefontein. All are must includes for multiple players.

Appearance from the Guy Walter stable scored an upset win in the G1 Myer Classic over 1600m at Flemington on Derby day in the spring. She comes into the race today third up from a spell - the same state she was in on Myer Classic day. That is a significant lead for punters, Walter aiming to repeat a winning formula. Both her fresh runs were sound and a return to her peak Timeform rating of 114 keeps her under notice.

New Zealand mare Zurella is an interesting one to assess. Timeform rated 111, she did not train on in the spring when set for a Caulfield Cup campaign. Runner up in the New Zealand Oaks at three, she came to Melbourne at four winning the G2 Let's Elope Stakes over 1400m at Flemington in impressive fashion but then lost form. Here she is second up after an equally eye catching fresh up run in the G1 Waikato Draught Sprint over 1400m, flashing home from near last in the 13 horse field to take third place behind Final Touch.

The biggest problem for her today is the 1500m around Rosehill which may be a shade short in distance. That said she is a quality mare and cannot be dismissed entirely.

Driefontein, Timeform rated 115, is on trial at 1500m but she has been steadily working up to a win, just failing to hold out Dear Demi in the Surround Stakes last time out. With no weight on her back and the ability to race handy, it would come as no surprise to see her in the frame at the finish.

Off Time: 05.10BST

Recommendation:

Back Dear Demi @ 7.50n/a in the Coolmore Classic

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2000 Guineas: Oxx's Akeed misses opening Classic with injury

News / Timeform / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Born To Sea emulate half-brother Sea The Stars (yellow)?

"Oxx's sole 2000 Guineas representative is now likely to be Born To Sea ([12.0])..."

Akeed Mofeed, well backed in recent days for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, will miss the race through injury.

Trainer John Oxx has been forced to rule his Timeform 114p-rated colt out of the first Classic of the season after he found him to be lame.

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to owner Jaber Abdullah, said: "It was a bit of a shock when John told me.

"He'll be fine in the long-term and he'll only miss a week but it's enough to force him out of the Guineas unfortunately."

A five-length winner of a Leopardstown maiden in September, he was beaten in the Beresford Stakes on his last start at two when he was reportedly unsuited by the testing ground.

Raymond added that although the sun of Dubawi still had the option of the Guineas up until this setback, Oxx had always viewed him more as a Derby (currently trading at [15.0] for Epsom version) horse.

"It's only a strain, it's nothing serious, but John thought it better not to run in the Guineas," he continued.

"Anyway, he's always thought the Derby would be more his race, even last year.

"The plan now is to run him in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. That's the tried and tested route for a lot of the Irish Derby horses.

"It's a shame but there we go. He'd been a bit worried about him for the last few days and now we know where we stand."

Despite his injury, Akeed Mofeed, who features in the latest edition of Timeform Horses to Follow 2012, is still a horse to keep well on side this year.

Oxx's sole 2000 Guineas representative is now likely to be Born To Sea ([12.0]), with the market headed by Camelot at [4.1] and substantial gamble Most Improved at [5.7].

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Trainer Shark Hanlon has issued an upbeat bulletin regards his Grand National runner Alfa Beat, suggesting that punters who overlook the horse do so at their peril......

Thomas Gibney's Lion Na Bearnai showed thorough stamina reserves to deny the Edward o'Grady-trained Out Now in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse......

Get Me Out Of Here finally landed the decent prize his consistent efforts have deserved when winning the Grade Two Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle at Fairyhouse......

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Guineas News: Smart looking to send his Classic hopefuls to trials

News / Timeform / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newmarket Racecourse

"Romeo Foxtrot and Ptolemaic have also done exceptionally well."

Bryan Smart is keen to give his three Newmarket Guineas entries a run in one of the trials to assess their prospects of going for Classic glory.

The North Yorkshire trainer has Foxtrot Romeo (Timeform master rating of 99) and Ptolemaic (97) in the 2000 Guineas and Excelette (102) in the 1000 Guineas.

All three are big prices in the ante-post markets for their respective events, but Smart reports them to have wintered well.

"Excelette has done really well through the winter. I'm very pleased with her," said Smart.

"Romeo Foxtrot and Ptolemaic have also done exceptionally well.

"All three will probably take in a trial and we'll see what we do after that.

"They all had good first seasons and have done very well during the winter."

In other Guineas news, Mick Channon is weighing up options for his exciting filly Samitar (112).

The daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar showed her quality during a fine juvenile campaign, winning an Ascot Group 3 and a Newmarket sales race.

She was also beaten just a head by Lyric Of Light (114p) in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile and Channon is looking forward to seeing her return to the track as a three-year-old.

"Samitar is great, I'm very pleased with her," said the West Ilsey trainer.

"I'm not quite sure where she'll go first, she might run in a sales race, but we'll see."

Samitar is currently [30/0] for the 1000 Guineas and the same price for the Epsom Oaks.

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Monterosso lands the Dubai World Cup, the world's richest race, at Meydan......

Cirrus Des Aigles gamely held St Nicholas Abbey to land the spoils in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan......

Cityscape lands the Dubai Duty Free under James Doyle at Meydan......

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SA Classic: Golden Chateau chases Triple Crown at Turffontein

South Africa / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mike de Kock has a strong SA Classic team

The winners of the Gauteng Guineas, Golden Chateau, and Gauteng Fillies Guineas, Go Indigo, are among the entries for the Grade 1 SA Classic and SA Fillies Classic to be run over 1800m at Turffontein on Saturday March 31....

Mike de Kock's Golden Chateau will be hoping to take another step towards landing the R2-million bonus for any horse that can complete the South African Triple Crown consisting of the Guineas, the SA Classic and SA Derby, having landed a shock success (started at 100/1) in the Guineas.

Golden Chateau is one of seven entries from the de Kock stable, but they may all have their work cut out against Justin Snaith's Gimmethegreenlight, who won the Queen's Plate at Turffontein.

Fillies Guineas champion Go Indigo will be looking to emulate Igugu and become only the second filly to win the SA Triple Tiara, for which a R1-million bonus will be paid.

The SA Classic and SA Fillies Classic are among eight Graded races to be run on Turffontein's Saturday card, the highlights of which you can hear live on Timeform Radio.

Saturday's Turffontein Card
? SA Classic (3-year-olds; Grade 1) 1800m R2,000,000
? SA Fillies' Classic (3-year-old fillies; Grade 1) 1800m R1,000,000
? HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) 1600m R1,000,000
? Man O'War Sprint (3-year-olds; Grade 3) 1100m R200,000
? Caradoc Gold Cup (Grade 3) 2850m R200,000
? Protea Stakes (2-year-olds; Grade 3) 1100m R200,000
? Pretty Polly Stakes (2-year-old fillies; Grade 3) 1100m R165,000
? Jacaranda Handicap (Grade 3) 1800m R165,000

Mike de Kock saddles the favourite for the Grade 1 J&B Met at Kenilworth on Saturday in the shape of star filly Igugu. Sean Trivass caught up with him to get his views on the big race.......

Sean Trivass recently met up with leading South Africa-based trainer Joey Ramsden (son of legendary punter Jack Ramsden and trainer Lynda) to discuss Saturday's J&B Met day card at Kenilworth, where Joey's stable star Variety Club goes in the Grade 1 Cape Derby........

There were few surprises when the final field was announced for the R2.5-million J&B Met to be run over 2000m at Kenilworth on Saturday 28 January, with South Africa's reigning Horse of the Year Igugu heading a fantastic field of 16......

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Coolmore Classic Review: A Classic result for former jockey Quinton

News / Gary Crispe / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ron Quinton after training the winner of the 2002 Crown Oaks

"Ofcourseican who has been in career best form improved her Timeform rating again in the Coolmore Classic..."

Saturday's Group 1 Coolmore Classic over 1500m at Rosehill saw former champion rider, now trainer Ron Quinton, achieve a unique a milestone when Ofcourseican rallied late to claim the major end of the prize writes Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe...

Quinton, who won the race twice as a rider made history being the first ex-jockey to also prepare the winner the feature fillies and mares classic.

Quinton who won the inaugural running of the Coolmore Classic back in 1973 aboard the late Tommy Smith-trained Miss Personality also won the event on champion mare Emancipation trained by Neville Begg in 1984 and there is just a touch of irony in Saturday's result as Ofcourseican narrowly defeated Secret Admirer, trained by Neville's son Graeme.

Ofcourseican registered her eighth win in 26 career starts easily registering her biggest victory to date. A convincing winner of the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup last start but previously untried at 1500m, she dispelled any doubts about her ability to run out the distance strongly with a resolute finish deepest on the course to reach the lead 200m out then stall off challenges from two smart mares at the top of the weights Secret Admirer and King's Rose.

History yet again proved a harsh taskmaster for horses handicapped to carry more than 56kgs. Only four horses in the 39 years prior had carried more weight to win and while Secret Admirer (58kgs) and King's Rose (57.5kgs) came close they were held out by the lighter weighted Ofcourseican on the line.

Ofcourseican who has been in career best form improved her Timeform rating again in the Coolmore Classic, increasing her figure to 114 to a new career peak, up 2 lb from her previous mark in the Liverpool City Cup.

This value is under the five-year winning average Timeform rating for the race but slightly above the average rating suggested by historical race analysis.

Runner up, 2011 Group 1 Epsom Handicap winner Secret Admirer was impressive in defeat rating to 123, an increase 1 lb from her past master figure while third-placed King's Rose returned a rating of 122, her best figure since joining Peter Moody's stables last year.

Despite an official track rating of dead, race time analysis suggests a racing surface closer to the dead-slow range. Not all runners were suited by those conditions plus the added bias against racing on the fence resulted in most of the winners for the day coming down the centre of the track.

Race favourite Steps In Time, who was also on trial at the 1500m, set the pace throughout but pulled hard and refused to settle under Jimmy Cassidy. She turned for home well clear and had several runners off the bit chasing, however she compounded quickly leaving the race set up for those horses racing on the back of the speed.

Three-year-old filly Streama was one of those being hard ridden on the home turn. She failed to run into the race after tracking Steps In Time, beaten just over three lengths but in terms of her rating, she ran to her Surround Stakes winning form at her start prior.

Trainer Guy Walter is now toying with the idea of stepping her up in distance to the Group 1 Vinery Stakes over 2000m in a fortnight.

The winner Ofcourseican is likely to progress to the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes over 1500m at Rosehill in two weeks time where she is likely to again meet both Secret Admirer and King's Rose. However those mares will meet her much better under the weight for age conditions of that race.

Robin Bastiman is keen to get Borderlescott back on turf over a straight five furlongs after he was well beaten on his seasonal return at Lingfield......

Trainer Tom Taaffe has secured the services of Andrew Lynch for the ride on Treacle in the Grand National at Aintree on April 14......

Premio Loco landed the Group 3 Winter Derby at Lingfield on Saturday under an excellent ride from George Baker......

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Coolmore Classic: Streama looking to hit target at Rosehill for Bowman

News / Editor / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Rosehill Gardens

"Steps In Time has has her work cut out from stall 12 however, as does Victorian multiple Group 1 winner Yosei..."

The Group 1 Coolmore Classic (due off 05:10 GMT) is the feature at Rosehill on Saturday, and top-weight Secret Admirer has been allotted stall six of 14 for the fillies and mares showpiece.

Trained by Graeme Begg and the mount of Brenton Avdulla, four-year-old Secret Admirer is set to carry 58kg in the $600,000 Coolmore Classic having landed the Group 1 Epsom Handicap over 1600m at Randwick in the spring prior to running third in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes over 1600m at Flemington in November.

With Secret Admirer a [12.0] chance, current market leader is Streama at [3.1], the Syndey-based filly having won the Group 2 Surround Stakes over 1400m on her latest outing. She will carry 55kg and will be ridden from stall nine by regular partner Hugh Bowman.

John O'Shea's up-and-coming Steps In Time is next best in the betting at [5.2] and is the mount of Jim Cassidy. Steps In Time has has her work cut out from stall 12 however, as does Victorian multiple Group 1 winner Yosei , who will go from barrier 10 under Michelle Payne.

On the card 40 minutes earlier is another Group 1, the $400,000 Ranvet Stakes (2000m), in which first and second in the Group 1 Australian Stakes, Manighar and Southern Speed, are taken on by Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes winner Shoot Out.

Peter Moody's former Euro Manighar, who will be ridden from stall four by stable jockey Luke Nolen, narrowly landed the Australian Cup over 2000m at Flemington on March 10 and is currently trading at [5.6] for a race in which the Chris Waller-trained Shoot Out is [3.55] market leader.

A total of nine fillies will do battle for the $300,000 Group 2 Jacobs Creek Reisling Stakes (1200m) with star juvenile Samaready ([1.7] favourite) looking to enhace her claims for the Golden Slipper at the track on April 7, for which she currently heads the betting at [3.6].

Get free form, cards & results for Australia timeform.com/free/

Dual Group 2 winner Best Terms came through her first serious gallop of 2012 with flying colours....

It is said that there are few certainties in life other than death and taxes. After a hectic Cheltenham Festival, jumps handicapper Phil Turner can add a few more to that list- whichever lane you change into during a motorway traffic jam immediately becomes the slowest, there are far more lows than highs when you're a lifelong Evertonian and, of course, Big Buck's will continue to remain unbeaten over hurdles.........

Joseph O'Brien has played down speculation linking him with the mount on So You Think in the Dubai World Cup on Saturday week....

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Sean Jazayeri Captures WPT L.A. Poker Classic

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sean Jazayeri celebrates after winning the 2012 WPT L.A. Poker Classic (Photo: World Poker Tour)

Jazayeri began heads-up play behind leader Doc Sands, but scored a huge double-up when his ace-king outdrew Sands' pocket queens, and just one hand later Jazayeri had won the title.

Sean Jazayeri overcame a final table full of more experienced and decorated poker pros Wednesday night to win the 2012 World Poker Tour Los Angeles Poker Classic, besting a field of 549 to take the title and $1,370,240 first prize. David "Doc" Sands took runner-up in the event, with Dan Kelly finishing third.

Jazayeri carried the chip lead to the final table, and when a short-stacked Jason Somerville pushed all in from under the gun for 820,000 (less than 14 big blinds) on just the second hand last night, Jazayeri was there with the call.

Somerville held 8c-8d and Jazayeri Ad-Qd. Somerville was safe through the turn as the board came seven-high, but the Qh fell on the river to pair Jazayeri and send Somerville out in sixth.

Just 10 hands later, Jason Burt opened with a min-raise to 160,000 from the small blind and Dan Kelly called from the big blind. The flop came Kd-4h-3h, Burt continued for 180,000, and Kelly called. The turn was Qs and this time Burt bet 370,000. Kelly responded by pushing all in for about 600,000, and Burt called with a little less.

Kelly was drawing to a straight with Jh-10c while Burt had top pair with Kh-Jc. The river then brought the Ad, giving Kelly Broadway and eliminating Burt in fifth.

About an hour later came the next elimination. Following an opening raise by Jazayeri and a call by Kelly, Noah Schwartz pushed all in from the button for a little over 1.5 million. Jazayeri then reraised all in over the top, forcing a fold from Kelly.

Schwartz had Ac-Jh and Jazayeri Kc-Kh. The board came 10c-6h-6s-9s-10d, and Schwartz was knocked out in fourth.

With three left, Jazayeri had taken a huge advantage with better than 9.8 million, with Kelly next with 4.64 million and Sands with 2 million even.

Sands improved his circumstance in short order by doubling through Kelly, using Kh-9d to beat Kelly's Ah-8d after the board brought Sands a needed king. Sands would later grab another large pot versus Kelly, sending the latter down to short-stacked status among the final three.

It wasn't long after that Kelly found himself all in with Ks-Jh against Sands' pocket deuces, and after the board ran out seven-high they were down to two.

Sands began heads-up play with a lead with 9.47 million to Jazayeri's 7 million. He'd maintain that lead for much of the hour or so the pair squared off, but Jazayeri grabbed it back after a huge double-up with Ah-Kd versus Sands' Qd-Qh. An ace on the flop gave Jazayeri the lead which held through the river, and suddenly he had nearly 14 million to Sands' 2.58 million.

Just one hand later, Sands was all in with Ks-Qh against Jazayeri's Ad-5d. The flop came Kc-10s-5c to give Sands the lead, and after the Jc he was still in front. But the river brought the 5h to give Jazayeri trips and the title.

2012 WPT L.A. Poker Class final table payouts:
1st: Sean Jazayeri -- $1,370,240
2nd: Doc Sands -- $806,370
3rd: Dan Kelly -- $521,770
4th: Noah Schwartz -- $355,750
5th: Jason Burt -- $252,980
6th: Jason Somerville -- $202,910

That $1.37 million payday eclipses Jazayeri's previous career-high by a longshot. His previous best cash had been for just over $48,000 for a runner-up finish at a $2,000 buy-in NLHE event at the 2011 Wynn Classic.

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The eighth edition of the Grand Series of Poker (GSOP) kicked off on Sunday 26 February and already Betfair Poker players are absolutely destroying the series and winning ridiculous sums of cash! Even this humble scribbler is in profit, what...

They have reached the six-handed final table at the World Poker Tour Los Angeles Poker Classic with Sean Jazayeri leading the remaining players with 4.38 million and Doc Sands second with 4.01 million. Rounding out the tough final table are...

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Honda Classic: Fowler heads the three-ball bets on day one

Three Ball Bets / Dan Geraghty / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Rickie Fowler has lost none of his style but does his sound game remain?

"Graeme McDowell is based in Orlando and if past results are anything to go by, will certainly find this week's set up and conditions more to his liking than last week in Arizona.

Just as it was looking rosy for Dan Geraghty along came the World Matchplay to wipe out a promising P&L - can he turn it around at this week's Honda Classic? Here are the three musketeers he's hoping can swashbuckle him back into profit

Well, last week was a disaster to say the least and killed the P&L. I console myself slightly in the fact that some of the shrewdest golf punters I know struggled as much as I did.

This week the PGA Tour rolls into Florida for the Honda Classic.

Robert Allenby put in a fine performance in a poor field at last week's Mayakoba Golf Classic but ultimately he may struggle to come to terms with the defeat. Standing on the final tee Allenby had the tournament won but ruined his flawless card with an ugly double bogey to lose out to Korean-American John Huh. On Thursday the Australian is partnered by D A Points and Graeme McDowell [2.6] whose last round here was a 64. The Northern Irishman is based in Orlando and if past results are anything to go by, will certainly find this week's set up and conditions more to his liking than last week in Arizona.

Last week Rickie Fowler [2.3] was narrowly beaten by David Toms but finished so well that I'm happy to take him to beat an out of sorts KT Kim, who hasn't played here before and Boo Weekley who has been struggling with his game for a while now and has not enjoyed the Honda since his playoff defeat in 2007.

Ben Crane's [2.6] stroke average around here reads well (69.13 for eight rounds). Third on his last appearance at the Honda (2009), Crane's first day opponents look highly beatable. Freddie Jacobson has had a very slow start to the year due to torn ligaments in his left thumb - the Swede struggling badly when losing to Robert Karlsson in the first round of the Matchplay last week - and Mr Consistency, Charles Howell III, while a danger, lacks the class of Crane.

Recommended Bets
Graeme McDowell [2.6] - 2 points
Rickie Fowler [2.3] - 2 points
Ben Crane [2.6] - 1 point

Season Profit Loss: -12.02 points

Dan Geraghty makes his selections for the first round two balls at the WGC Accenture Matchplay......

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Honda Classic: Rory can learn from humble Hunter

General / Ralph Ellis / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

McIlroy congratulates Mahan at the Accenture

"McIlroy shares the top of the early market for the Masters with Woods and will be burning to erase the memory of last year’s final day meltdown."

Rory McIlroy's talent has never been in doubt but the Irishman shouldn't take success for granted, says Ralph Ellis ahead of this weekend's Honda Classic.

Between confidence and arrogance there's a very fine line. Believing in yourself is good. In fact for a sportsman it's essential. Go that bit further, however, and danger lurks.

I thought that on Saturday night, listening to Roy Hodgson telling a press conference, after his West Bromwich Albion team had beaten Sunderland, that he didn't need to answer questions about relegation any more. Brave when they are still on just 32 points.

But that was almost humble compared to Rory McIlroy after he'd lost the Accenture Match Play final to Hunter Mahan, and with it the chance to take over as world number one. "Getting to the top of the rankings is hopefully inevitable," he said.

If only life, and sport, was so simple. The talent isn't in doubt: a sublime swing, a feathery touch around the greens, a steady putting stroke. It seems every ingredient of greatness is there. But if he thinks he can just wait for the wins to follow then he and his fans might just be in for a disappointment.

The undeniable fact is that in 37 career PGA Tour starts now, McIlory has just two wins. It means that while you can happily back him at [2.7] for a top five finish for this week's Honda Classic, the [9.4] for him to be the winner is a different matter.

At the moment there's still a soft underbelly to his performances. He showed true grit in knocking out his big rival Lee Westwood, but then didn't have the mental steel to see off Mahan, whose previous biggest claim to worldwide fame was breaking down in tears when he'd lost the crucial last singles at Celtic Manor in the 2010 Ryder Cup.

It may be unkind making comparisons to a young Tiger Woods, but if McIlory believes he should be judged by those sort of standards then it probably has to be done. And I can't remember the early Tiger coming up with anything resembling Rory's seventh and eighth holes against Mahan, when the Irishman made double bogey from the middle of the fairway and then couldn't take advantage of Hunter's three-putt.

McIlroy shares the top of the early market for the Masters with Woods and will doubtless be burning to erase the memory of last year's final day meltdown. But to do that he still has to find what the football people call a "winning mentality." Since his injury scare at the PGA Championship last year he's finished out of the top ten just once in 11 tournaments, but finished first only in an unofficial event in Shanghai and the Hong Kong Open.

Getting to the top might well happen. But until McIlroy finds the mean streak that turns nearly-winning into winning, it's anything but inevitable.

Five things you might not know about Hunter Mahan

1. Born May 1982 in Orange, California, his dad Monte worked undercover in the drug squad for the LAPD. The family moved to Texas when he took early retirement because he'd been beaten up in a fight with a suspect.

2. Hunter's into fashion because mum Cindy was a buyer at the Nordstrom department store in Dallas and used her company discount to buy her son's clothes. When he was ten he had 20 pairs of shoes, all with matching outfits.

3. His wife Kandi (they married last year at Piazza in the Village, Dallas) is a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader.

4. He teamed up with other golfers Ben Crane, Bubba Watson and Rickie Fowler last year to make a "boy band" pop video for charity. Check it out on YouTube.

5. His hobby is restoring classic cars. He currently drives a 2007 Bentley, but has been working on a 1969 Chevrolet Nova truck to prepare for shows.

Charl Schwartzel, Bill Haas and Nick Watney were three of Paul Krishnamurty's four golfers to watch last year - so who's he gone for this time round?...

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Can Rory make amends and win the Masters? Will this be the year when Woods dominates again? Or will Lefty eclipse them both? Paul Krishnamurty looks ahead to the four Majors of 2012....

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Kentucky Derby: Union Rags now clear favourite for May classic

News / Timeform / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Union Rags during a workout

"Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124..."

Union Rags has shortened markedly in the ante-post betting for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5, following his authoritative success in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.

The Michael Matz-trained colt is [4.1] from around [10.0] on Betfair for the Kentucky Derby, with a double-figure or bigger price on offer about all other named contenders.

Union Rags, winner of four of his five races, accounted for News Pending comfortably by four lengths, with the previously unbeaten Discreet Dancer fading into third. The much-touted Algorithms was a late scratch due to a setback.

Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124, which puts him 6 lb and more ahead of his likely rivals and just 2 lb behind the average rating achieved by Kentucky Derby winners in the last five years.

Matz, who won the big one in 2006 with Barbaro, indicated that he was likely to aim Union Rags at the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby, over 9 furlongs and back at Gulfstream, on March 31.

In the meantime, look out for Timeform's new "Road To The Kentucky Derby" feature, with rolling biographies of the leading contenders, starting on these pages later this week.

With opposition to reigning champion Quevega thin on the ground, Emma Lavelle is keen to run Kentford Grey Lady in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham......

Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers......

Kauto Star is reported to be in tremendous shape ahead of his bid for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup success on Friday February 16....

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Tuan Phan Leads, Ivey Bubbles WPT L.A. Poker Classic; 54 Remain

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Ivey hadn't played a U.S. tourney since March 2011, but returned to play the WPT LAPC event which he won in 2008 (Photo: World Poker Tour)

Current chip leader Tuan Phan will return to a stack of 1.14 million when play resumes on Monday, with Jason Somerville his nearest competitor with 860,000 and Joe Tehan third with 831,500.

After three days of play at the World Poker Tour Los Angeles Poker Classic, just 54 players remain with Tuan Phan the only one among them with more than 1 million chips. Meanwhile, because of his elimination Sunday night in 55th place, Phil Ivey bubbled the event as the last player to be eliminated before the cash.

Of the 549 who entered the $10,000 buy-in event, 182 had made it through to Day 3, and it would take seven 90-minute levels of poker on Sunday for the field to be trimmed to 54.

Current chip leader Tuan Phan is on a roll, having just won the World Series of Poker Circuit Harrah's Atlantic City Main Event in December for which he claimed a $188,190 first prize. Phan returns to a stack of 1.14 million chips, with Jason Somerville his nearest competitor with 860,000 and Joe Tehan third with 831,500.

Among the late-day bustouts on Sunday were several notables, including J.C. Tran, Phil Collins, Nick Schulman, Matt Stout, and Phil Hellmuth. As action wound down in Level 17 (500/2,500/5,000), Bryan Piccioli was knocked out in 57th and Sam Barnhardt in 56th, meaning they were one away from the cash.

Phil Ivey had around 200,000 chips at that point, but lost two-thirds of his stack to A.J. Jejelowo in an all-in confrontation in which the latter's 6s-6d held versus Ivey's Ad-10s.

Not long after that Ivey open-pushed for about 65,000 with pocket sixes and was called by David Baker who held K-K. The kings held, and Ivey -- playing in his first major tournament in the U.S. since the spring of 2011 -- was out in 55th.

Here's how the top of the counts look heading into Monday's Day 4, with a number of familiar names among them:

1. Tuan Phan -- 1,140,000
2. Jason Somerville -- 860,000
3. Joe Tehan -- 831,500
4. Casey Stewart -- 791,000
5. Lawrence Greenberg -- 707,000
6. Noah Schwartz -- 685,000
7. Larry Lipman -- 571,000
8. Tom Marchese -- 530,000
9. Badih Bouhahra -- 469,500
10. Doc Sands -- 463,500

Also returning to above-average stacks are Dan Idema (11th), Dan Kelly (14th), Nick Binger (16th), David Pham (19th), and David Baker (22nd). Among those in the lower half of the counts are Joe Hachem (38th), Sorel Mizzi (43rd), and Christian Harder (50th).

The first players eliminated on Monday will earn $21,080 -- a little over twice their buy-ins -- although all will be eyeing the whopping $1,370,240 first prize reserved for the winner. Players will play down to 18 on Monday, with those returning to play down to a six-handed final table on Tuesday.

Join Betfair Poker Now.

Online poker tournament specialist Mickey Petersen has become the latest European Poker Tour champion after he took down the Copenhagen leg of the prestigious tour. This was Petersen's first major live win and it was made all the more special...

The EPT Copenhagen Main Event reached its final table yesterday after the 24 players who returned to their seats in the Casino Copenhagen in the Radisson Blu Scandinavia Hotel were reduced to the final eight competitors after a little over...

"We're not gonna take it!" So said the Who. And Twisted Sister. And Howard Beale, who was also mad as hell. More recently have come similar sounding pronouncements from figures in the poker community regarding the still-in-limbo legal and moral...

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Timeform Dubai Daily: Meydan Classic, Thursday 15:45

Dubai / Timeform / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Is Entifaadha your idea of the winner?

"A race lacking depth and one that looks at the mercy of Entifaadha who can take this enroute to the UAE Derby".

Timeform take a look at the field for the $150,000 listed Meydan Classic...

Kenny Powers got better with each run last year in the face of some stiffish assignments, and returned as good as ever when second to Factory Time. Stamina not assured, and does need to improve again.

Cash Luck has won 5 of his 11 starts in Singapore, including a minor event in January when blinkered. Has the highest official rating of these and clearly respected despite conceding weight to most.

Burano was steadily progressive at 2 yrs without getting his head in front. Pleasing reappearance when fifth to Factory Time over inadequate trip and different surface an excuse on latest. Respected.

Matusalen was unbeaten in 4 races in Spain, all his successes coming in minor events. Clearly going the right way and no surprise to see him go well.

Factory Time won first 2 starts, and better form in defeat subsequently, particularly when sixth in the Dewhurst. Back to form when winning last time but did dictate and this looks tougher.

Cody Maverick was well beaten on debut before seeming to show a fair level of form when ninth behind Factory Time in a minor event. Below that form when third in a maiden next time and vulnerable here.

Strait of Zanzibar is a useful if quirky performer, and was fortunate to break his duck in a listed race at Tipperary in August. Limitations and flaws exposed subsequently and others more convincing.

Entifaadha won first 2 starts, including Acomb Stakes at York. Not disgraced subsequently, including in a Group 2 at Doncaster and must have leading claims with extra 1f promising to suit.

Noor Zabeel won a maiden at York last year for Mick Channon before running with credit in minor and listed company. Fair start for this yard when sixth in UAE 2000 Guineas and has place claims in this.

Energia Dust was formerly trained in Brazil where he won 1 of his 3 starts. No real threat in a couple of minor events at Meydan this season and difficult to fancy at present.

Old Pal won minor event in Germany last year when in the care of Werner Hefter. Not the most consistent otherwise and finished well held behind Factory Time here earlier this month. Cheekpieces now on.

Fiscal showed signs of ability in 2 starts for John Gosden despite never truly threatening. Improved significantly when third behind Factory Time here recently and claims if that doesn't flatter him.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Entifaadha
2. Matusalen
3. Cash Luck

Timeform Verdict: A race lacking depth and one that looks at the mercy of Entifaadha who can take this enroute to the UAE Derby. Matusalen and Cash Luck are unknown quantities having proven prolific in Spain and Singapore respectively, and they should ensure that the selection doesn't have it all his own way.

...........

Click HERE to listen to Timeform's Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux previewing three races on Thursday's Meydan card.

Visit timeform.com to download a race card for Thursday's meeting at Meydan.

There's another quality card at Meydan on Thursday and Timeform Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux has three recommended SmartPlays......

Trainer Peter Moody has told how Black Caviar will not be chasing her record-breaking 20th consecutive successs in the Futurity Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday......

Richard Hills, retained jockey to Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, is to retire from the saddle on Dubai World Cup night at Meydan on March 31....

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Gulfstream Park Preview: Two Classic winners set to return

USA / Graeme North / 11 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Shackleford: Takes on Ruler On Ice in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap

"Shackleford... posted one of Timeform's best timefigures of 2011 in North America when winning the Preakness..."

Timeform's Graeme North previews the Grade 1 Donn Handicap and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap....

The road to Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby takes a back seat this weekend as some of the best of the older horses still around converge on Gulfstream Park where the highlight of a strong Saturday card there is the reappearance of two of last season's Classic winners, Shackleford and Ruler On Ice, in the nine-furlong Grade 1 Donn Handicap due off at 21:45 GMT.

So strong is the field that neither the Preakness nor the Belmont winner is top weight; that honour goes to the Jockey Club Gold Cup winner and Breeders' Cup Classic fifth, the largely consistent Flat Out.

Flat Out's subdued recent reappearance can be overlooked on account of it being his turf debut, but even back on dirt and at his best he looks to have something to find - around 4lbs on Timeform ratings - conceding weight to both Classic winners.

Shackleford, who posted one of Timeform's best timefigures of 2011 in North America when winning the Preakness before looking a non-stayer behind Ruler On Ice in a well-run Belmont on a slow track, is the more interesting of that pair despite his draw in stall 9 and the short run to the first turn.

Not only did Shackleford show marginally the better form of the pair subsequently when beating his old rival in the G1 Haskell Invitational (before ending the year with an excellent second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile after compromising his chance by disputing a strong pace that set things up for the winner) but Timeform's unique Early Position Figures - which indicate how today's race might well be run based on the in-running positions adjusted for field size of the runners at various points of call in recent races - suggests the Donn Handicap could be set up ideally for him.

Only the unbeaten and promising but still relatively-unproven Trickmeister seems likely to head him down the back stretch in a race that promises to test speed more than stamina and Shackleford's top-level mile form could prove decisive in the dash for home.

Of the others, Redeemed seemed to show quite a lot of improvement on just his second try in Graded company when winning the G3 Discovery Stakes on his final start but a timefigure of 92 for that win suggests it might be dubious form, while Mission Impazible is a regular foe of Flat Out's but looks to have a bit to find at the weights. Soaring Empire has already had a pipe-opener this year, but didn't do enough to suggest he's up to winning such a warm contest as this on just his second start back from a long break.

The other highlight at Gulfstream is the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (off 22:13 GMT) over the same trip, with the weights headed by the consistent Get Stormy who was much improved in 2011. For the second November running he didn't do himself justice in the Breeders' Cup Mile but before that he'd won a couple of Grade 1 events at Keeneland and Churchill Downs when allowed to set a leisurely pace.

Not withstanding his excellent chance at the weights on Saturday - he looks to have around 3lb in hand on Timeform ratings as it is on a couple of bits of 2011 form - that front-running angle might be the key to the race with few of his rivals inclined to go forward.

Yankee Fourtune has made the running in the past while Yummy With Butter did take the field along steadily in the Grade 3 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes over a slightly shorter trip here on his reappearance before being run down in a tight finish by the re-opposing Silver Medallion, but that's not his normal style and in any case he looks vulnerable again to the very progressive and younger Todd Pletcher runner, as well as perhaps too to Kindergarten Kid who was barely a length behind Silver Medallion in that race despite having started his run from further back. Morning Line odds of 4/1 look very fair on Get Stormy, with forecast favourite Sangaree (who is also entered in the Donn Handicap) still to prove he's as effective on turf as dirt or equitrack.
.............
Get a free form guide for racing in the USA at http://www.timeform.com/free/.

Tonight's SmartPlays in America consist of two backs at Aqueduct and a lay at Charles Town. Read on to get Timeform's selections......

Timeform's US team highlight two backs and a lay for Tuesday evening in North America.........

On the eve of the best sprinter in the world attempting to take her career wins to a straight 18, Timeform brings you another international racing podcast......

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Dubai Desert Classic: Kaymer back on The Punter's menu

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Martin Kaymer – Can he contend at the Emirates?

“Kaymer comes into the event without any of the pressures of last year and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him.”

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?

Tournament
This will be the 23rd staging of the Dubai Desert Classic, the final leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East Swing.

Venue
Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE

Course Details
Par 72, 7301 yards. The Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted the event since its inception. Like last week's venue, Doha GC in Qatar, the wind is often a factor, especially in the afternoons. The front nine ends with a stretch of three tough holes in four - the 6th, 8th and 9th are all strong par fours, so the back nine is the scoring nine, with three par fives (the 10th, 13th and 18th). Water is in play on ten holes. A good all round game is required here but an ability to hit it long off the tee and to putt on Bermuda certainly won't go amiss. Over the last few years, good scrambling has been a key stat too.

Useful Sites

Course Guide

Official Event Site

Tee Times

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 6.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.00am Saturday and 8.00am on Sunday.

Last five winners
2011 - Alvaro Quiros -11
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)
2009 - Rory McIlroy -19
2008 - Tiger Woods -14
2007 - Henrik Stenson -19

Typical Winner
It certainly helps if you're long off the tee but it's not absolutely imperative. You do need to hit plenty of greens though and if you don't, you need a brilliant short game to save pars. There have been one or two shock winners over the years but the title usually goes to a top-class contender.

Market Leader
It's impossible to crab favourite Rory McIlroy. He's in fine form, his first Tour win came here in 2009, and he clearly loves this place. He's led after the first round in each of the last three years, so an argument could be made for a trade at least, but he's simply too short for my liking at just [5.4]. Especially when you bear in mind how poorly he's finished the event in the last two years. He was 10th last year and 6th in 2010.

Second favourite, Martin Kaymer, recovered well last week in Qatar after his surprising missed cut at his beloved Abu Dhabi Golf Club. He's always struggled at Doha in the past, so his top-ten finish caught the eye.

Lee Westwood will feel as if this event owes him one, he really should have won here two years ago. He's played the event 13 times in total though and other than that effort in 2010, his record's quite ordinary and I'm happy to overlook him once again.

Peter Hansen, fourth best at [24.0], ticks the form and course form boxes boldly and he'll have an army of followers but as detailed in yesterdays De-brief, he's not one to trust in the mix and I can't take to him at all.

Selections
I swerved Martin Kaymer in last year's renewal at a lot less than he trades at this time around and rightly so. I was wary of the fact that he'd just become world number one, and that he was placed in a high profile three-ball, alongside Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood. He comes into the event without any of those pressures this time around and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him. His form figures here read 2-4-4-31 and if he hadn't flopped last year, he'd have been a point or two shorter.

Defending Champion, Alvaro Quiros, isn't happy with his game and comes here after two disappointing efforts. A missed cut in Abu Dhabi was followed by a very ordinary effort in Qatar but I'm going to stick with him. The big problem last week was putting and that could be down to the particularly slow greens. He actually topped the Driving Distance stats and ranked 6th for Greens In Regulation, so although he's bemoaning his form, the rest of his game seems to be in good order. Given he traded at heavy odds on in 2010 and quite frankly blew it on that occasion, and given he made two triple-bogeys and came from ten back after day one last year to win, I felt he was a big enough price to take a chance on this time around.

The first bet I struck this week was on Thomas Bjorn. The Dane got blown away on day one last week but recovered brilliantly. I thought the rejuvenated Bjorn, who won this back in 2001, would have been no bigger than [25.0] this week so taking the [30.0] available yesterday didn't take a lot of pondering over.

Young Dane, Thorbjørn Olesen, didn't back up a good performance in Abu Dhabi, finishing well down the field last week in Qatar but he was too big at [130.0] here, and last up is Thongchai Jaidee. The Thai veteran put in a much improved performance last week and should have gotten himself into the playoff here two years ago.

Dubai Desert Classic Selections
Martin Kaymer @ [10.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [30.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [140.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [220.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the AT & T Pebble Beach National, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar......

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......

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X Factor 2011: Devlin no club classic

X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Misha and Janet look vulnerable this week

"Whatever might be said about the merits of Little Mix, they are very unlikely to survive into the very late stages of this competition. Being able to back The Risk at 1.5 in this market, then, is a gift, and should be treated as such."

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

I'm vexed. Positively vexed. It's that Mike the Norman (his parents were French). He's been in sparklingly prescient mood of late and, quite frankly, he's making me look ham amateur. Not that I'm bitter. He tries ever so hard, and deserves these brief moments of recognition. Bless him.

And anyway, whatever losses this column may have incurred of late, they will all be more than cancelled out when our long-term bets begin to blossom. Misha Bryan is as good as gone, which will allow us to collect on our top 3 lay, and I still can't envisage Janet Devlin winning the thing, which leaves us incredibly well placed on The Risk, Craig Colton and Marcus Collins - who are still the most viable contenders for the outright title.

In many ways this column is a microcosm of the X Factor itself. The show is going through some short-term pain. Ratings are down and Cowbell has reportedly intervened, giving finalists a good talking to and insisting on a triple-elimination-shocker this weekend. Massive action of this sort will, of course, bring Cowbell the Supreme (his mother is Diana Ross) massive results. So it will be for us, dear readers. We just need to adopt the approach of Cowbell, take massive action, and then reap the rewards.

Let's get started in the Groups' market. Whatever might be said about the merits of Little Mix (nee Rythmix), they are very unlikely to survive into the very late stages of this competition. Being able to back The Risk at [1.5] in this market, then, is a gift, and should be treated as such.

Similarly, Johnny Robinson is a shoo-in for the Over 25s. Although Brucknell the Kitty (her parents were demented wild cats) won plaudits last week for a slightly more bearable performance, she is ultimately unpopular and will be gone soon, perhaps as soon as this weekend. Johnny, on the other hand, will be safe for a few weeks, so we should get stuck in to the [1.5].

As for this week's elimination, it's difficult to see how the Club Classics' theme will play. Outside of our trio of The Risk, Craig and Marcus, I can easily see any of the remainder being in the bottom three. For whatever reason, the talentless Frankie has managed to evade the sing-off in the past two weeks, and I'm reluctant to weigh in again at such a short price, even though he has to struggle with the theme this time around.

A better bet to be in the bottom three is Kitty. She continues to receive negative press - most recently for an alleged racist comment directed the way of The Risk's Derry Mensah - and, on this basis, [1.6] looks pretty tasty.

Having predicted in week one that Misha Bryan was too weird to be popular, I was kicking myself a little not to have backed her for a bottom two berth last week. Given that fate, it's surprising to see her as big as [4.2] this week to be in the bottom three, which looks like a very big price to me.

Rounding of this instalment I'm going to have a punt on Janet Devlin struggling this week. The theme won't suit her, and [9.0] looks just too juicy to ignore.

This week's recommendations:
5pts Back The Risk at [1.5] in Groups market.
5pts Back Johnny Robinson at [1.5] in Over 25s market.
3pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [1.6] in Bottom Three market.
1pt Back Misha Bryan at [4.2] in Bottom Three market.
1pt Back Janet Devlin at [9.0] in Bottom Three market.

Previously recommended:
3pts Back Frankie Cocozza at [1.74] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1pt Back Frankie Cocozza at [3.8] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market - WON.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - OPEN.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - OPEN.

Settled bets:
11.00pts staked; 4.64pts returned; -6.36pts overall.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our X-Factor Star Predictor...

Mike Norman admits that this year's competition is now wide open after the events of Saturday night, but rank outsider Frankie Cocozza is a worthy favourite to be the next act out....

In a shock results show that saw Seventh Elimination favourite Frankie Cocozza survive yet again, Sophie Habibis is the latest contestant to fall......

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in...

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Patinack Farm Classic: Black Caviar fans will make a statement

News / Gary Crispe / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Black Caviar is aiming for a 16th straight victory at Flemington.

"Black Caviar is the most popular horse to race in Australia since triple Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva, with her public aura rivalling the adoration that was bestowed on champions Phar Lap and Kingston Town"

Wearing salmon and black will be much more than a fashion statement at Flemington on Saturday when Black Caviar's growing army of fans turn out to watch her shoot for her 16th straight victory in the $1 million Patinack Farm Classic...

It has become the norm for racegoers to wear a combination of salmon and black to match Black Caviar's silks whenever she is racing.

Black Caviar is the most popular horse to race in Australia since triple Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva, with her public aura rivalling the adoration that was bestowed on champions Phar Lap and Kingston Town at the height of their careers.

The racing public expect her to win the Patinack Farm Classic and so does her jockey Luke Nolen.

In fact, Nolen believes Black Caviar is ready for the peak performance of her brief spring campaign, expecting the mare will go to another level after her recent wins at Caulfield and Moonee Valley.

She faces only six rivals, three of them stable mates while the other three have at some stage in their careers tried to match it with the champion mare only to have their hearts broken.

"She'll be peaking tomorrow and what we'll see tomorrow is probably Black Caviar at her best in Melbourne this spring," Nolen said.

However Nolen said Black Caviar will not be racing the clock

"As long as she's winning, it doesn't matter. They don't pay any more for breaking track records," he said.

"I'll just ride her to win."

Black Caviar is aiming for back to back wins in the Patinack Farm Classic. It will be her seventh Group 1 win, her sixth race win at Flemington and will take her prize money past $4 million.

In last year's Patinack Classic she was ridden by Ben Melham, only one of three times that Nolen has not been her rider as he was serving a suspension.

It's been a frustrating Melbourne Cup week for Nolen as he is winless after 20 rides on the first three days of the carnival, a rare statistic for last season's Melbourne premiership winner.

Black Caviar's trainer Peter Moody has also been winless with 15 starters on the first three days of the carnival.

Moody said the $1 million prize money and Group 1 status of the Patinack Classic are the reason why he is lining up three stablemates, all mares, against Black Caviar on Saturday.

"A Group 1 placing on their resume would mean a lot to their pedigrees as they are all multiple stakes winners," he said.

"I don't expect them to be competitive with Black Caviar. They are racing for second or third."

Tune in for live commentaries at http://radio.timeform.com/

Get free form, cards & results for Australian racing at timeform.com/free/

Mosheen, trained by Robert Smerdon, slammed her rivals this morning to claim a nine-length victory in the VRC Oaks at Flemington......

A classy field of 19 horses have been entered for the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 19, including last season's Gold Cup and King George winner Long Run and outstanding veteran Kauto Star......

Flemington hosts the Grade 1 Emirates Stakes on Saturday......

Betfair website