ATP Indian Wells Betting: Federer and Nadal set for another tough battle in the desert

"I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games.."

Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

Sean Calvert has seen a fair few Roger Federer versus Rafa Nadal matches over the years and he'll be up late again tonight for the latest instalment. He fancies this one to go long...

A fairly awful choke from Milos Raonic against an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga cost me my bet on Wednesday at the BNP Paribas Open. 

Not for the first time this week one of the men let a good lead slip away and it looked all over a Raonic win when Tsonga went a set down and had treatment on his knee, but Raonic handed the Frenchman a lifeline with an awful service game in set two and then gave him the match in a similar style in set three, ending on a double fault. 

That will be a painful loss for the Canadian, who normally possesses a more reliable temperament and Tsonga goes through to face Novak Djokovic, who had a 2am finish local time against Sam Querrey last night.

That match is for tomorrow though and today it's my outright tip Tomas Berdych taking on Kevin Anderson and if you're staying up late counting your Cheltenham winnings (or losses) then it's Rafa Nadal versus Roger Federer at 2am UK time.

Part 29 of this match-up is probably one of the toughest to predict, with both players not at their best physically. 

Rafa still has issues with his knees and it's in the lap of the gods how well he is able to move on any given day. He was hampered last night against Ernests Gulbis, but was still able to edge that one and similarly Federer struggled again with his back and crept past Stan Wawrinka.

Obviously the match-up favours Nadal, who has won 18 of their matches lifetime to Fed's 10 and we can expect the same tactics again tonight, as Rafa will try and get the ball up high to Roger's backhand and control the point from there.

That said, Federer won here 12 months ago on a very windy day and Nadal has only played two competitive matches on a hard court since that day, so all things considered it's far from easy to pick a winner in this one.

If I were going on the outright match odds market I would favour the underdog purely on the match-up at around 2.166/5, but I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games at 1.865/6.

Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

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Dubai Desert Classic: Kaymer back on The Punter's menu

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Martin Kaymer – Can he contend at the Emirates?

“Kaymer comes into the event without any of the pressures of last year and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him.”

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?

Tournament
This will be the 23rd staging of the Dubai Desert Classic, the final leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East Swing.

Venue
Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE

Course Details
Par 72, 7301 yards. The Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted the event since its inception. Like last week's venue, Doha GC in Qatar, the wind is often a factor, especially in the afternoons. The front nine ends with a stretch of three tough holes in four - the 6th, 8th and 9th are all strong par fours, so the back nine is the scoring nine, with three par fives (the 10th, 13th and 18th). Water is in play on ten holes. A good all round game is required here but an ability to hit it long off the tee and to putt on Bermuda certainly won't go amiss. Over the last few years, good scrambling has been a key stat too.

Useful Sites

Course Guide

Official Event Site

Tee Times

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 6.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.00am Saturday and 8.00am on Sunday.

Last five winners
2011 - Alvaro Quiros -11
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)
2009 - Rory McIlroy -19
2008 - Tiger Woods -14
2007 - Henrik Stenson -19

Typical Winner
It certainly helps if you're long off the tee but it's not absolutely imperative. You do need to hit plenty of greens though and if you don't, you need a brilliant short game to save pars. There have been one or two shock winners over the years but the title usually goes to a top-class contender.

Market Leader
It's impossible to crab favourite Rory McIlroy. He's in fine form, his first Tour win came here in 2009, and he clearly loves this place. He's led after the first round in each of the last three years, so an argument could be made for a trade at least, but he's simply too short for my liking at just [5.4]. Especially when you bear in mind how poorly he's finished the event in the last two years. He was 10th last year and 6th in 2010.

Second favourite, Martin Kaymer, recovered well last week in Qatar after his surprising missed cut at his beloved Abu Dhabi Golf Club. He's always struggled at Doha in the past, so his top-ten finish caught the eye.

Lee Westwood will feel as if this event owes him one, he really should have won here two years ago. He's played the event 13 times in total though and other than that effort in 2010, his record's quite ordinary and I'm happy to overlook him once again.

Peter Hansen, fourth best at [24.0], ticks the form and course form boxes boldly and he'll have an army of followers but as detailed in yesterdays De-brief, he's not one to trust in the mix and I can't take to him at all.

Selections
I swerved Martin Kaymer in last year's renewal at a lot less than he trades at this time around and rightly so. I was wary of the fact that he'd just become world number one, and that he was placed in a high profile three-ball, alongside Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood. He comes into the event without any of those pressures this time around and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him. His form figures here read 2-4-4-31 and if he hadn't flopped last year, he'd have been a point or two shorter.

Defending Champion, Alvaro Quiros, isn't happy with his game and comes here after two disappointing efforts. A missed cut in Abu Dhabi was followed by a very ordinary effort in Qatar but I'm going to stick with him. The big problem last week was putting and that could be down to the particularly slow greens. He actually topped the Driving Distance stats and ranked 6th for Greens In Regulation, so although he's bemoaning his form, the rest of his game seems to be in good order. Given he traded at heavy odds on in 2010 and quite frankly blew it on that occasion, and given he made two triple-bogeys and came from ten back after day one last year to win, I felt he was a big enough price to take a chance on this time around.

The first bet I struck this week was on Thomas Bjorn. The Dane got blown away on day one last week but recovered brilliantly. I thought the rejuvenated Bjorn, who won this back in 2001, would have been no bigger than [25.0] this week so taking the [30.0] available yesterday didn't take a lot of pondering over.

Young Dane, Thorbjørn Olesen, didn't back up a good performance in Abu Dhabi, finishing well down the field last week in Qatar but he was too big at [130.0] here, and last up is Thongchai Jaidee. The Thai veteran put in a much improved performance last week and should have gotten himself into the playoff here two years ago.

Dubai Desert Classic Selections
Martin Kaymer @ [10.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [30.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [140.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [220.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the AT & T Pebble Beach National, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar......

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......

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US Politics Betting: Carnage in Carolina as punters desert nominee-elect Romney

US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney is no longer the favourite to win in South Carolina

"Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner."

The last few days has seen a number of important events that have turned the race to be the Republican candidate on its head. All of which is playing into the hands of Barack Obama, says Paul Krishnamurty.

In keeping with a long history of political betting shocks, the race for the Republican nomination has been turned on it's head over recent days. When the final week of campaigning for the South Carolina Primary began, Mitt Romney was trading as low as [1.1] for both the nomination and tonight's pivotal contest. Suddenly, following a series of significant developments, he is friendless for South Carolina at [5.1] and drifting out to [1.4] for the wider contest.

The favourite's troubles began after a series of hostile ads inspired by chief rival Newt Gingrich, who had previously been on the receiving end of negative campaigning from Romney backers before the opening Iowa Caucus. As voters mulled over Romney's controversial corporate past at Bain Capital, the billionaire failed to neutralise criticism of his tax affairs. With the wind in his sails, Gingrich stepped up the pressure with two strong debate performances and polling in the Southern state was transformed. Having trailed Romney by 11 points only six days ago, the latest numbers have Gingrich ahead by 9%.

Nor are Romney's woes restricted to this single contest. An earlier victory in the opening Iowa Caucus was wiped out after a recount, with Rick Santorum declared the winner. A Gingrich victory tonight would now mean three different candidates had won the opening three races while a fourth, Ron Paul, remains a key player. Another significant development is the withdrawal of one-time favourite Rick Perry, and his subsequent endorsement of Gingrich. Perry was the one candidate with a potential donor base to rival Romney, and now their man has effectively confirmed the controversial former House Speaker as the principal anti-Romney candidate, that cash may well pour into Gingrich's coffers, therefore levelling the playing field.

However the race develops over the longer-term, it seems increasingly certain that Romney will be unable to declare an early victory and focus his attention on the later Presidential contest. Barack Obama, an eyecatching [1.83] to win a second term, must be delighted by this week's events. Punters wanting to learn in greater detail about the dynamics behind these intriguing races might gain something from checking out CNN's all-night coverage with Wolf Blitzer and a team of experts. Some of the detailed analysis frankly puts the UK media to shame.

Ahead of next Saturday's South Carolina primary, Paul Krishnamurty discusses the chances of a candidate who has been dubbed "dangerous", "revolutionary" and even "racist."...

Victory in second primray puts Romney on the path to nomination. But rivals might yet spring a surprise in South Carolina......

At odds of [1.03] to win, a Mitt Romney failure in the coming New Hampshire primary would be the mother of all politics betting shocks, so the story this week is how the front-runner's rivals fare, says Paul Krishnamurty...

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Points and Murray after yesterday’s win

“Even after this weekend’s dreadful flop from the front Sky TV’s pundits were describing Rory McIlroy in glowing terms. He simply hasn’t developed the mettle needed to see out tournaments properly though and his putting really does need to improve.”

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T.....

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again must be Alvaro Quiros' mantra. Having traded odds on in the 2010 Dubai Desert Classic, and having looked likely to catch Thomas Bjorn last week in Qatar, before a late wobble put pay to his charge, the flamboyant Spaniard finally got his just deserts in the desert when he came from a mile back over the weekend to win at the Emirates.

Whilst in the States, Darren Andrew Points, otherwise known as D.A Points , playing with the hugely irritating Bill Murray, chipped in for eagle on the hardest hole on the course (the 14th) and then kept his nerve to take his first US PGA Tour title, to become the sixth winner of the 2011 season and the 6th straight winner at a triple-figure price. Murray's inane buffoonery made this Pro-Am unwatchable for the first three days but it helped Points stay calm yesterday.

My Bets

Quiros was my main pick in Dubai so it's been a great week and after a couple of poor weeks it was great to get back on track for the year. As always, my in-running plays up until the start of play last night are detailed in the Live Golf Blog.

I wasn't going to get involved last night but as round four progressed I couldn't help myself, but I'm glad I did. I started off by backing Phil Mickelson, who I already had onside from the off but when he closed to within three of the lead with six to play I thought he was too big at [20.0] so I topped up. I layed my bet back at [14.0] five minutes later so all I'd effectively done was boost any potential winnings. Winnings that didn't materialise! He made bogey at the treacherous par five 14th and that was that.

The event looked to involve just three players after that, Steve Marino, whose substantial halfway lead was eroding fast, Hunter Mahan, who had started very fast - playing the front nine in five under par and eventual winner D.A Points - with the latter trading far bigger than the two former. I couldn't see why at all, I didn't fancy the already wobbling Marino, with whom Points was tied with at the time, and I'm far from a huge Mahan fan either. [5.7] looked more than fair to me so I backed him, albeit very modestly. I layed the stake back at [2.02] and it was far from a big win but it was enough to cover all my stakes on the event so it finished the weekend off nicely.

Player to follow

As stated, I'm no Hunter Mahan fan but I spent most of last night cursing the fact I'd not backed him. Strangely Hunter has never led after three rounds but he's been within two of the lead nine times. He managed to muscle past the previously flaky Justin Rose at the 2007 Travelers Championship but the rest of the time he's been poor. On the last four occasions he's been bang there on a Sunday he's gone backwards and rapidly. From one back to six back (at the Farmers Insurance last month), one back to four back, two back to nine back! And two back to four back.

Contrast that with his other two PGA Tour wins, when he came from three back to win by two at last year's Bridgestone Invitational and from four back to win in Phoenix a few months earlier. And he also came close at last year's AT & T National in July, when he came from six back to lose by just one.

Taking on Hunter when he's right on the pace with a round to go but backing him when he's a bit further back seems to be the way to go and given how weak the round three leaderboard was here, that was very nearly a good chance missed last night and I was relieved he didn't win.

Player to swerve

Change the record Steve!

It has to be young Rory McIlroy again though. He's so well supported in the market and it's not really surprising. Even after this weekend's dreadful flop from the front Sky TV's pundits were describing him in glowing terms. He simply hasn't developed the mettle needed to see out tournaments properly though and his putting really does need to improve.

I know he's won twice but the first time he nearly threw away a six shot lead and the second victory came courtesy of a miraculous weekend finish at the Wachovia. In contention he's still woeful and remains one to treat with caution.

This week's Race to Dubai event is the Avantha Masters in India and on the US PGA Tour a stellar field will assemble for the Northern Trust Open. I'll preview both, either tomorrow night or on Wednesday morning.

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T........

Alvaro puts the Punter through the mill but it was all worth it in the end........

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

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Dubai Desert Classic Results: Quiros holds his nerve

Betfacts / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 13 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Quiros played his usual attacking, sometimes erratic, brand of golf

"Quiros’ final round was typical of one of the most exciting and flamboyant players on the European Tour and included a hole-in-one on the 11th, an eagle on the 2nd and a triple bogey on the 8th."

Alvaro Quiros won the Dubai Desert Calssic after a very up and down final round...

Alvaro Quiros won the Dubai Desert Classic after being matched at a high of 180.0 on Betfair, carding a third consecutive 68 to win by one shot over James Kingston and Anders Hansen. Quiros' final round was typical of one of the most exciting and flamboyant players on the European Tour and included a hole-in-one on the 11th, an eagle on the 2nd and a triple bogey on the 8th.

At one stage it looked like his chances were over after that triple bogey but he recovered well and none of his rivals for the win, which included James Kingston (low of [3.0]) and Rory McIlroy ([2.14]), made the most of Quiros' slip-up to post a sufficiently competitive score in the clubhouse, though credit goes to South African Kingston for playing the back nine in three under. In the end it was left to Anders Hansen to mount a final challenge; he went odds-on at [1.91] when leading by one and could have forced a play-off if he'd birdied the last but a poor second gave him virtually no-chance of attacking the flag with his third and he was left ruing a couple of missed birdie chances on 16 and 17, as he carded a final score of 10 under.

Tiger Woods was in the hunt at one stage, as was Lee Westwood, but both made mistakes as they tried to force the issue.

Alvaro Quiros won the Dubai Desert Calssic after a very up and down final round......

A heartbreaking final hole meltdown from US journeyman Robert Garrigus hands Westwood a second chance at the St Jude Classic which the Englishman takes...

Englishman did not go unbacked during his unlikely win at Wentworth as canny bettors get huge price on Betfair...

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The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach National

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Early leader Rory McIlroy playing the 12th hole this morning

"Minutes later the cameras showed Quiros on the 10th green. Was he putting for eagle or birdie? Neither. To my astonishment and bitter disappointment it was for a double-bogey seven, which he then missed. What a start to the week."

It's a dreadful start in Dubai for Steve, as both Alvaro Quiros and Miguel-Angel Jimenez mess up good starts...

I wasn't the least bit surprised by what I found with my first peek at the leaderboard at around 6.30 this morning - Rory McIlroy was five under par through ten holes. The Irishman loves this track and this is where he won his first title. A little further down, on three under par, was my morning starter, Miguel-Angel Jimenez, and I was perfectly happy. Unfortunately, my happiness didn't last long....

Playing the tougher front nine second, Jimenez made no further progress and a complete pig's ear of the 6th. A birdie at the 7th lifted my spirits but then his approach shot on the 9th whacked into the hospitality suite and ricocheted into the water. He finished with another double-bogey and an overall score of level par, which left him seven shots off Rory, who really played well and could have finished further clear.

I was a bit peeved to see Sky take an hour and half's break, just as the three-ball containing the world's top three of Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Tiger Woods start off and felt given the unique circumstances a change to their scheduling wouldn't have gone amiss.

The coverage re-started just in time to see Martin Kaymer do exactly what Jimenez had done on the 9th and make double-bogey via the hospitality suite. Something that wasn't entirely unexpected - he played the hole in five over par last year!

My main pick Alvaro Quiros, playing in the group behind had ticked along very nicely and on two under par, all I wanted him to do was get through the tricky 9th. Surely then, playing the easier nine, with its three par 5's, he could kick on and make some ground up on young Rors.

Oops. Guess what, he too found water via the hospitality boxes too! He did manage to get up-and-down for bogey but this was starting to become a real issue. I didn't think the boxes looked any nearer to the green than they'd been in previous years but the run of watery ricochets suggested otherwise.

As the power group played the 10th I couldn't help but notice that Kaymer was trading at half Westwood's price, despite the fact he trailed the Worksop Wonder by one! Who is the real number one I wonder...

Minutes later the cameras showed Quiros on the 10th green. Was he putting for eagle or birdie? Neither. To my astonishment and bitter disappointment it was for a double-bogey seven, which he then missed. What a start to the week - it appeared I was out of the game with all my pre-event picks and I hadn't even had my lunch!

With Rory making such a good start, and with Westwood chugging along well, Kaymer's price was holding up quite well and I decided, as I'm not big on either Rory or Westy, I'd try and get him onside. I waited while he played the tough 14th and 15th, and again delayed as he pared the 15th, then struck, taking [5.5], as he drove the par 4 16th green.

Westwood's bogey at the last helps Kaymer's cause but guess who made eagle to make a poor day so much better. It was typical Tiger - tenacious to the end.

I made two further in-running plays, taking [80.0] about Richard Sterne and [200.0] about Pablo Martin - who's fared considerably better than when he was a pre-event pick last week. As I write, he's five under with a hole to play.

I'm still waiting to see if I get a small bet matched on Phil Mickelson at [10.5] in the States. I must be getting close to the front of the queue now.

It's a dreadful start in Dubai for Steve, as both Alvaro Quiros and Miguel-Angel Jimenez mess up good starts......

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!...

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Kaymer v Woods v Westwood: Who will be the desert king?

Golf Bets / Joe Dyer / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

A relaxed Kaymer can beat his faltering opponents

"Of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer."

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?

Golf fans get a breakfast-time treat when the top three in the world rankings tee it up at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning.

It could be a battle royale, it could be a massive letdown, but there is bound to be massive interest at 8:20am UK time when Tiger Woods (no.3), Martin Kaymer (no.2) and Lee Westwood (no.1) compete for bragging rights in the desert heat.

In truth, of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer - and the market reflects that with the rising German star priced at [2.7] to emerge with the best first round score. Woods is next in the betting at [2.98] with Westwood the [3.25] outsider.

The 26-year-old already has a tournament win this year (three weeks ago in Abu Dhabi) while his more experienced opponents have struggled so far - Westwood missing the cut at the Qatar Masters, while Woods laboured to an unimpressive 44th place finish at his favourite Torrey Pines track two weeks ago.

In terms of course form each man has a reason to back him - Woods is a previous winner, Westwood last year's runner-up while Kaymer has finished second, fourth and fourth in the last three years.

The German has shown an aptitude for repeating good performances at courses he enjoys and that, coupled with his current form, make him the bet at [2.7].

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?...

The top three golfers in the world are in action on the European Tour this week and Mike Norman believes Lee Westwood can prove why he's top of the tree....

The big man with a big swing is Dan Geraghty's headline tip in this week's Three Against the Field column...

Betfair website

The Punter's picks for the Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach National

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Alvaro Quiros takes aim at the Dubai skyline during last year’s Desert Classic

“With everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans Alvaro may just sneak passed them all.”

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai....

There isn't any doubt which event fills centre stage this week, with the world's top-three teeing it up in Dubai. All the action's being played out in the very friendly morning UK timeslot and we're in for a real treat at the Dubai Desert Classic but finding any value hasn't been easy.

Once Martin Kaymer had demolished the field in Abu Dhabi last month, for the third time in four years, he was always top of my list for this week, but not at this price. His record is superb - not quite Abu Dhabiesque but pretty sensational all the same. He showed an immediate liking for the gaff when he chased home Tiger Woods on his debut three years ago and he's followed that effort up with two 4th placed finishes. But I just have enough little niggles to let him go un-backed this week.

My main concern was the fact that he was always likely to be drawn alongside Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods, and he has. And to make it only slightly tougher they're playing in the afternoon on day one too, which is rarely the best side of the draw. The prospect of topping the world rankings hasn't appeared to have affected his game yet but then it's only just become a real issue but I have a nagging concern that all this new talk of him gazumping Westwood and topping the tree might just unsettle him.

One other issue is the 9th hole. It's a tricky par four with water in play and Martin just can't seem to master it. He played it in five over par last year! I took [12.5] twelve months ago on the back of a very similar set of form figures and just feel he's too short this time around at about half that price.

This is strong line-up to say the least and the aforementioned Woods and Westwood, as well as Rory McIlroy all have great course form, with Westwood the only one of the three not to have taken the title - though he really should have done so last year. Despite their strong course form, none make any appeal. Woods was woeful last time out at Torrey Pines, Westwood appears to have gone AWOL since topping the charts and Rory is sure to contend but will his putting and his bottle hold up? I have my doubts.

Another player that most certainly had a chance to win last year is my first selection, last week's nearly man - Alvaro Quiros.

In an interview last week on Sky, Alvaro confessed to having experienced only one occasion when he started to think of victory before it was sealed - at this event last year. When he found the green on the par five 13th on Sunday he was matched at a low of [1.58] but he three-putted and completely lost it after that. Some may say he did much the same thing last week in Qatar but I'm prepared to give him another chance.

He showed in no uncertain terms in Qatar that he can repeat form at certain venues and I expect him to contend again here, and with everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans he may just sneak passed them all.

Second up is last year's champ Miguel Angel Jimenez - I felt [40.0] was just too big for the likeable veteran. I'm completely happy to dismiss his effort at Doha last week. Although he's held the early lead there a couple of times before, he's never really fared too well there and he could well have suffered a reaction to his near miss the week before in Bahrain when he finished in a tie for 2nd. The big concern with Mig is putting. He got so frustrated at missing short ones in Bahrain that he threw his 'old faithful' at his bag and broke it during round three. Hopefully he's now found a suitable replacement that can get a few more to drop.

I've also backed Thonchai Jaidee, whose case is made in this week's 'Find Me A 100 Winner' piece and last but not least, another Spaniard in the shape of last week's third place finisher, Raphael Cabrera-Bello. He's a risky play, with only a missed cut to his name at this venue, but at [150.0] he's not going to do too much damage to the bank balance if he flops.

Selections:

Alvaro Quiros @ [21.0]
Miguel Angel-Jimenez @ [40.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [100.0]
Raphael Cabrera-Bello @ [150.0]

I've been through the runners at this week's other event, the A T & T Pebble Beach National, umpteen times and I'll be jiggered if I can find anyone really worth backing. I went round and round that many times I almost found myself pressing that little blue button next to Phil Mickelson's name. And I'm not entirely convinced I won't do yet before they tee off! We have to be careful here though; so far in 2011 the US Tour hasn't produced a double-figure priced winner, let alone a single-figure priced one. So far, it's the year of the shocks stateside.

Lefty was awful last week after starting so well and I was certain I'd be swerving him this week but then I looked at the field in detail and a play on him makes as much sense as anything else.

He's won this title three times and on the last such occasion, in 2007, it followed immediately after a dreadful missed cut in Phoenix. Mercurial at the best of times his record here is a real mixed bag. He's as liable to bolt up as he is to miss the cut but at a slightly bigger price he certainly makes more appeal than defending champ Dustin Johnson - who I simply don't trust in contention anymore. A case of sorts can be made for the next six or so in the betting but none of them grab me at the prices but I have managed to dig out a couple.

Brian Gay is in fair form, having finished in the top-20 in each of his last four spins. His record on the west coast is far from magnificent but with a best ever 16th place here last year, I felt he was just worth a small play at [55.0]. And I've a sneaky feeling about Matt Bettencourt this year, so he's been backed at [200.0].

Selections:

Brian Gay @ [55.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [200.0]

I'll be back on Thursday to kick off the Live Blog.

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!...

I know it's Monday afternoon but we're not done yet! Can Mark Wilson hang on in Phoenix?...

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