The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kaymer playing catch up

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Schwartzel and Oosthuizen after a successful first round in Malaysia

“Hopefully I’ll wake up in the morning to see Kaymer has at least caught Schwartzel and that he’s nicely tucked away in his hotel watching the storms gather.”

It's early days at the week's two events but given Steve's already involved in-running, here's his early thoughts...

13:50 - April 12, 2012

Although it's early days, given I've got involved in Malaysia, I thought I'd kick off the blog.

The RBC Heritage has only just kicked off so there's nothing to report there but they've already finished round one at the Maybank Malaysian Open and I've had an in-running play already.

My two pre-event picks have flopped and grabbing the headlines are South African friends Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen, who played together this morning. Schwartzel leads after an opening eight-under-par 64, and Louis, who shot two shots worse, is in a tie for 3rd. Jeev Milkha Singh is currently 2nd on -7 but I've backed someone much further down the list...

Although raindrops fell and storm clouds threatened, we didn't experience any delays today but that might not be the case tomorrow. Today's afternoon starters may look miles behind now but that may not be the case this time tomorrow and although it really doesn't look like it now, if the weather does close in tomorrow, today's late starters may have the advantage. Given the cream has risen to the top at this venue so far, I've spent the morning nibbling away at the classiest of those that that will be up and at 'um early tomorrow - Martin Kaymer, at odds of over [20.0].

Starting out six behind on -2, it will be his turn to play in the best of the conditions tomorrow and there's a strong chance that Schwartzel and co get delayed in the afternoon and that they'll need to come back early on Saturday to finish off.

There are a few ifs and buts there obviously but I fancy it's worth the risk. Hopefully I'll wake up in the morning to see Kaymer has at least caught Schwartzel and that he's nicely tucked away in his hotel watching the storms gather. We'll see.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-event Picks:
Bernd Wiesberger @ [140.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Running Play
Martin Kaymer @ an average of [23.0]

RBC Heritage Pre-Event Picks:
Jim Furyk @ [20.0]
Zach Johnson @ an average of just over [50.0]
Brian Gay @ [100.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
George McNeil @ [180.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [180.0]
Chad Campbell @ [250.0]
Stephen Ames @ [280.0]
Time Herron @ an average of [340.0]

Our man takes a look at this week's US PGA Tour event, where he can see Jim Furyk contending again and where value picks are plentiful. Read Steve's preview here......

Steve takes a good look at this week's Race to Dubai event in Kuala Lumpur. Will another promising youngster take the title?...

Steve looks back on yet another fantastic Masters tournament. What lessons have we learnt for next year?...

Amazon Sports Center

Dubai Desert Classic: Kaymer back on The Punter's menu

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Martin Kaymer – Can he contend at the Emirates?

“Kaymer comes into the event without any of the pressures of last year and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him.”

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?

Tournament
This will be the 23rd staging of the Dubai Desert Classic, the final leg of the Race to Dubai's Middle East Swing.

Venue
Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE

Course Details
Par 72, 7301 yards. The Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted the event since its inception. Like last week's venue, Doha GC in Qatar, the wind is often a factor, especially in the afternoons. The front nine ends with a stretch of three tough holes in four - the 6th, 8th and 9th are all strong par fours, so the back nine is the scoring nine, with three par fives (the 10th, 13th and 18th). Water is in play on ten holes. A good all round game is required here but an ability to hit it long off the tee and to putt on Bermuda certainly won't go amiss. Over the last few years, good scrambling has been a key stat too.

Useful Sites

Course Guide

Official Event Site

Tee Times

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days - starting 6.00am Thursday and Friday, 9.00am Saturday and 8.00am on Sunday.

Last five winners
2011 - Alvaro Quiros -11
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)
2009 - Rory McIlroy -19
2008 - Tiger Woods -14
2007 - Henrik Stenson -19

Typical Winner
It certainly helps if you're long off the tee but it's not absolutely imperative. You do need to hit plenty of greens though and if you don't, you need a brilliant short game to save pars. There have been one or two shock winners over the years but the title usually goes to a top-class contender.

Market Leader
It's impossible to crab favourite Rory McIlroy. He's in fine form, his first Tour win came here in 2009, and he clearly loves this place. He's led after the first round in each of the last three years, so an argument could be made for a trade at least, but he's simply too short for my liking at just [5.4]. Especially when you bear in mind how poorly he's finished the event in the last two years. He was 10th last year and 6th in 2010.

Second favourite, Martin Kaymer, recovered well last week in Qatar after his surprising missed cut at his beloved Abu Dhabi Golf Club. He's always struggled at Doha in the past, so his top-ten finish caught the eye.

Lee Westwood will feel as if this event owes him one, he really should have won here two years ago. He's played the event 13 times in total though and other than that effort in 2010, his record's quite ordinary and I'm happy to overlook him once again.

Peter Hansen, fourth best at [24.0], ticks the form and course form boxes boldly and he'll have an army of followers but as detailed in yesterdays De-brief, he's not one to trust in the mix and I can't take to him at all.

Selections
I swerved Martin Kaymer in last year's renewal at a lot less than he trades at this time around and rightly so. I was wary of the fact that he'd just become world number one, and that he was placed in a high profile three-ball, alongside Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood. He comes into the event without any of those pressures this time around and in a weaker field, at a much better price, and off the back of an extremely encouraging week in Qatar, I simply had to back him. His form figures here read 2-4-4-31 and if he hadn't flopped last year, he'd have been a point or two shorter.

Defending Champion, Alvaro Quiros, isn't happy with his game and comes here after two disappointing efforts. A missed cut in Abu Dhabi was followed by a very ordinary effort in Qatar but I'm going to stick with him. The big problem last week was putting and that could be down to the particularly slow greens. He actually topped the Driving Distance stats and ranked 6th for Greens In Regulation, so although he's bemoaning his form, the rest of his game seems to be in good order. Given he traded at heavy odds on in 2010 and quite frankly blew it on that occasion, and given he made two triple-bogeys and came from ten back after day one last year to win, I felt he was a big enough price to take a chance on this time around.

The first bet I struck this week was on Thomas Bjorn. The Dane got blown away on day one last week but recovered brilliantly. I thought the rejuvenated Bjorn, who won this back in 2001, would have been no bigger than [25.0] this week so taking the [30.0] available yesterday didn't take a lot of pondering over.

Young Dane, Thorbjørn Olesen, didn't back up a good performance in Abu Dhabi, finishing well down the field last week in Qatar but he was too big at [130.0] here, and last up is Thongchai Jaidee. The Thai veteran put in a much improved performance last week and should have gotten himself into the playoff here two years ago.

Dubai Desert Classic Selections
Martin Kaymer @ [10.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [30.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [140.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [220.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the US Tour's event, the AT & T Pebble Beach National, and I'll kick off the In-Play Blog on either Thursday or Friday.

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar......

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......

Amazon Sports Center

Commercialbank Qatar Masters: Back Kaymer for day one win

Three Ball Bets / Dan Geraghty / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

He disappointed last week, can he find form in Qatar?

"Alvaro Quiros and the stats say that this is a course for the long hitters, with that in mind I'm taking arguably the longest on tour, Nicolas Colsaerts [1.91], to get the better of two of the shortest hitters on tour Colin Montgomerie and Jose Maria Olazabal."

Dan Geraghty is hoping for better luck with his three-ball tips, making four selections for the opening day action at the Commercialbank Qatar Masters

Unfortunately the nature of three-ball betting means there are going to be weeks like last, I just hope they are kept to a minimum!

All three recommended golfers led before finishing second in their three-balls. Tiger played well tee-to-green but he wasn't good enough to better the mercurial Rory McIlroy; Joost Luiten also finished day one under par only to find Nicolas Colsaerts too good while Alexander Noren took care of Branden Grace but was overtaken by Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano. To add insult to injury, all three went on to win their three ball on day two.

This week the European Tour makes the short trip to Qatar and by all accounts the players will face a battle, Christian Cevaer has used Twitter to inform us the course is playing like a links - hard and windy, but with rough, water and huge grain!

Martin Kaymer [2.74] will no doubt be hurting after last weeks missed cut. All the headlines leading up to the event were focused on the German but for whatever reason it just didn't happen for him. He got off to a bad start and the course was playing tougher than usual. The German ace couldn't get himself back on terms, meaning a fast start this week is all the more important.

Kaymer's playing partners are Alvaro Quiros and KJ Choi. Quiros has a fantastic record here but if the wind blows, he can struggle, as last year's opening 75 shows. Choi is also a dangerous adversary but is making his debut here and I am backing Kaymer to come out on top after day one.

One young man that should enjoy the battle is Peter Uihlein [3.5]. The youngster performed with great credit in tough conditions at the 2011 Open, where he narrowly lost out on the silver medal to Tom Lewis, who has, of course, since gone on to win on the European Tour.

Uihlein started his professional career last week on the European Tour's sister tour - The Challenge Tour, where he improved round on round to finish a very respectable 12th. The American has already spent some time pre-season practising in the desert with Lee Westwood and his other new 'stablemates' and at the prices I'm willing to give him a chance to beat Thomas Aiken, who has played four tournaments in quick succession and failed to score in the 60s last week, and Damian McGrane, who likes tough conditions but has started the season very poorly and has a terrible record here.

Lorenzo Gagli [2.6] enhanced his reputation with a fine campaign last term, he's yet to win but many are expecting big things this time around. The Italian appears to have started the season slightly sharper than those he faces in his opening day three ball (Raphael Jacquelin and Michael Hoey) and with the cobwebs blown away last week he can make a fast start.

Alvaro Quiros and the stats say that this is a course for the long hitters, with that in mind I'm taking arguably the longest on tour, Nicolas Colsaerts [1.91], to get the better of two of the shortest hitters on tour Colin Montgomerie and Jose Maria Olazabal.

Godspeed, my friends.

Recommended Bets
Kaymer [2.74] - 2 points win
Uihlein [3.5] - 1 point win
Gagli [2.6] - 1 point win
Colsaserts [1.91] - 2 points win

Running profit / loss: - 5.74 points

There's a phenomenal amount of golfing talent to choose from in Abu Dhabi this week so who is Dan Geraghty's money on?...

Dan Geraghty picks the best first day bets at the first PGA Tour event of the West Coast Swing...

With The Punter covering both main tours in his weekly column we have set Dan Geraghty a new test - find us three-ball winners every week. He kicks off at the Joburg Open where a golfer making a new start...

Amazon Sports Center

Kaymer v Woods v Westwood: Who will be the desert king?

Golf Bets / Joe Dyer / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

A relaxed Kaymer can beat his faltering opponents

"Of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer."

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?

Golf fans get a breakfast-time treat when the top three in the world rankings tee it up at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning.

It could be a battle royale, it could be a massive letdown, but there is bound to be massive interest at 8:20am UK time when Tiger Woods (no.3), Martin Kaymer (no.2) and Lee Westwood (no.1) compete for bragging rights in the desert heat.

In truth, of the trio, there is only one man in form - Kaymer - and the market reflects that with the rising German star priced at [2.7] to emerge with the best first round score. Woods is next in the betting at [2.98] with Westwood the [3.25] outsider.

The 26-year-old already has a tournament win this year (three weeks ago in Abu Dhabi) while his more experienced opponents have struggled so far - Westwood missing the cut at the Qatar Masters, while Woods laboured to an unimpressive 44th place finish at his favourite Torrey Pines track two weeks ago.

In terms of course form each man has a reason to back him - Woods is a previous winner, Westwood last year's runner-up while Kaymer has finished second, fourth and fourth in the last three years.

The German has shown an aptitude for repeating good performances at courses he enjoys and that, coupled with his current form, make him the bet at [2.7].

The three best golfers in the world get down to business at the Dubai Desert Classic on Thursday morning - who will emerge on top?...

The top three golfers in the world are in action on the European Tour this week and Mike Norman believes Lee Westwood can prove why he's top of the tree....

The big man with a big swing is Dan Geraghty's headline tip in this week's Three Against the Field column...

Betfair website

Qatar Masters Betting: Think twice before backing Kaymer

Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The Doha course has not suited Kaymer in the past - why would it now?

"Having arrived here three times in stellar form only to fail miserably each time, one must assume there is something about the layout that doesn't fit Kaymer's game."

Paul Krishnamurty finds plenty of reasons to doubt [7.8] market favourite Martin Kaymer in Qatar this week, and finds a pair of players with which to oppose the German genius

If the new season were your first experience of golf betting, it would be easy to conclude that whereas the PGA Tour was a wide-open mug's game, picking Race to Dubai winners is as easy as shelling peas.

While the shortest priced winner of the four US events so far has been [90.0], the favourite has won the last three 'European' events. After scouring recent Euro Tour schedules, I can find no precedent for such a run, though I'm sure somebody with a longer memory can remember the last time it happened. Nor has the trend been restricted to favourites - the previous two winners started as third and second favourite.

It would of course be wrong to assume that those trends reflect anything deeper over the long-term. After all, the 2010 season saw only six favourites win throughout the entire year, and the general consensus is that the European Tour is becoming ever more competitive. Nevertheless, recent results at the Qatar Masters point to another predictable winner. Since this event began to attract top international stars halfway through the last decade, one of them has tended to win.

A golden opportunity for Martin Kaymer to deliver a fourth straight win for favourite backers and become world number one, then? Mike Norman certainly thinks so and punters have been quick to steam into odds of [7.8] about the German. I have to disagree.

I should add that has absolutely nothing to do with my wider view about Kaymer, who I agree will become world number one soon. Indeed, the last time he had such an opportunity at last autumn's Valderrama Masters, I tipped him at an almost identical price. Kaymer failed miserably on that occasion - perhaps due to the pressure, but that isn't part of my reasoning. He lacks nothing in the bottle department. Instead, my opposition is based on three grounds - price, opposition and most importantly, the course.

There is no sense in trying to find fault with Kaymer's performance to win his third Abu Dhabi title, because there were none. It was almost perfect, 'machine' golf. However, we already knew that the course was absolutely perfect for him on the basis of previous renewals, so there's no reason to assume he'll be anywhere near so dominant elsewhere. Against a field that also includes three other members of the world's top-seven, [7.8] is a very short price about anyone, especially given serious doubts about Kaymer's suitability for this Doha course.

Kaymer has played Doha three times, with a best result of just 31st. I suppose he could be forgiven at least one of the failures, as it came immediately after winning his first title. Many youngsters suffer such a reaction. But having arrived here three times in stellar form only to fail miserably each time, one must assume there is something about the layout that doesn't fit. I suspect it has much to do with tricky, undulating Bermuda greens, that are different and slower than at Abu Dhabi. Kaymer certainly wouldn't be the first classy player to struggle to get the hang of them.

Given those previous Doha failures, the best value may lie in laying Kaymer to finish in the top-ten and top-five. As for alternative picks, refer to my recent "Five to follow during the Desert Swing" piece. In addition to discussing Kaymer's prospects around these different layouts, Alvaro Quiros and Chris Wood were identified as players to follow. Quiros absolutely loves this layout, finishing first and second in the last two years, even when not quite at his best. A top-ten on a less suitable layout in Bahrain is the ideal prep.

Wood also took the eye on last year's Doha debut, starting poorly with 75 before fighting back to register a top-15 finish. He's started the season well and looks as likely a first-time winner as anyone. Moreover, the strong winds forecast this week are right up his street, as illustrated by top-fives on his first two cracks at the Open Championship.

Recommended Bets:
Lay Martin Kaymer to make the top-five @ [2.9]
Lay Martin Kaymer to make the top-ten @ [1.9]
Back Alvaro Quiros @ [16.5]
Back Chris Wood @ [70.0]

Betfair website