Dubai World Cup: O'Brien to ride So You Think in Meydan showpiece?

News / Timeform / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Joseph O'Brien

"O'Brien became the youngest ever jockey to win at the Breeders' Cup meeting when partnering another possible Dubai mount, St Nicholas Abbey..."

Joseph O'Brien has played down speculation linking him with the mount on So You Think in the Dubai World Cup on Saturday week.

Trained by his father Aidan O'Brien, Timeform 131-rated six-year-old entire So You Think is favourite for the $10million Dubai World Cup at Meydan on the back of a solid first season in Europe after joining Ballydoyle from Australia.

O'Brien became the youngest ever jockey to win at the Breeders' Cup meeting when partnering another possible Dubai mount, St Nicholas Abbey (Timeform rating 127), to a famous victory in the Turf.

With Ryan Moore, a jockey O'Brien snr repeatedly turned to in the big races last season, apparently lined up to partner current [22.0]-shot Planteur for Marco Botti or Silver Pond ([21.0]), many believed it paved the way for the youngster to take the most important ride of his career.

However, while several horses trained at Ballydoyle appeared among the 'likely fields' released by the Dubai Racing Club at the weekend, the jockey revealed that none are yet definite runners.

"As yet we're not quite sure what's going and what's not going," said O'Brien.

"I haven't been told what I'll be riding and all the horses still have a couple of pieces of work to be done.

"Nothing is 100% certain to be going just yet."

So You Think is currently trading as the [4.3] favourite for the Dubai World Cup on Saturday March 31, while O'Brien may also renew his association with unbeaten RP Trophy winner Camelot this season, the 117P-rated three-year-old current market leader for both the 2000 Guineas ([3.6]) and Epsom Derby ([3.5]).

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Cheltenham Gold Cup: They think it's all over without Kauto

Jamie Lynch / Jamie Lynch / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

A relaxed Sam Waley-Cohen and Long Run

"Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field..."

If the worst comes to the worst and Kauto Star is forced to miss the Gold Cup, then it's a simple task for Long Run and Sam Waley-Cohen. Or is it? Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch gets on his bike to find out...

Chris Hoy does about ten seconds of full-on pedalling in the Sprint, and not only does he get a medal for that, he gets a knighthood too. And a load of money from Kelloggs.

Of course, there's far more to the Sprint than the actual sprint as - and you'll know exactly what bit I mean here - there are those opening few laps where the two cyclists play the ultimate game of cat and mouse and go about as fast as a fat Dalek. It's captivating stuff, and the one held up - the hunter - always always seems to win.

I've looked it up, and apparently there are all sorts of scientific and physiological reasons why the chaser is favoured, from energy distribution to the aerodynamic drag, but nowhere does it mention the human psyche and its effect; the positive mentality of being the hunter rather than the hunted.

When Hoy hits the velodrome, he knows he's got one man to beat, he knows exactly the time in which he's got to do it, he knows exactly the point at which he's got to push it, and therefore he can focus all his resources on one job against one rival with one aim. Hoy is brilliant in its execution, but it's a simple equation nonetheless.

It's a simple equation for Long Run in a Cheltenham Gold Cup with Kauto Star in it. Long Run has got one horse to beat, to hunt down, and making it a one-on-one pursuit, like the cycling Sprint, means a specific plan of action can be drawn up, including contingencies. Yes, Long Run has failed twice in his role as the hunter this season, unable to catch Kauto Star, but plenty will have been taken from Haydock and Kempton - 'I learned much more from defeat than I ever learned from winning' - and, above that, Long Run will be doing the hunting on his territory this time, with the stiffer track and two extra furlongs.

If Kauto Star doesn't make it, Long Run will be unawares, but Sam Waley-Cohen will know the state of play, and won't he just. In sport, there's a very different psychology involved in being the hunted. Just ask Andrew Strauss.

After England beat India 4-0 last summer, in the process becoming number one in the world Test rankings, Strauss said: 'The next 12 months will be the biggest test we've had yet; it's a different mindset being the hunters rather than the hunted.' What happened in the next series? England got beaten up 3-0 by Pakistan. And what happened in the subsequent one-day series against the same team, when England reverted to underdogs and reverted to hunting? England savaged them 4-0.

Long Run's price has inevitably contracted, and it will do so more if Kauto is ruled out, reflecting the far easier task for the horse, but the question I'm tentatively asking is would the shortened price take full account of the different task for the jockey? And - this is where we have to be brutally honest - it's not a seasoned jockey that we're talking about. Sam Waley-Cohen knows the horse inside out, the pair have already won a Gold Cup, and the jockey also finished second in the Grand National last year, which might seem like question answered, but the difference between those races and a Kauto-less Gold Cup is pressure; the pressure brought about by being the hunted.

Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field...and they weren't altogether convincing. The fact that they pretty much scrambled home there, whatever the reason, is something else that might just prey on Waley-Cohen's mind, and the weight of expectation in the Gold Cup will be on a different scale to what it was at Newbury if Long Run finds himself at Cheltenham without Kauto to share the attention.

Long Run and Waley-Cohen always has been and always will be a partnership in which the jockey is scrutinised almost as much as the horse, because of his amateur status, and that would be intensified in a Gold Cup which looked at his mercy. The pressure, the expectation and the onus would all be on Waley-Cohen, and that itself complicates the issue.

In some ways, Long Run is comparable to Chris Hoy's bike, in that neither will be aware of the pressures and expectations, whoever is in opposition. In both cases that is a problem for the riders and the riders alone.

Kauto Star missing the Gold Cup would undoubtedly increase Long Run's chances of winning it, but, tangentially, it might just ask different questions of his rider, requiring a lot more tactical thought than a one-on-one scenario.

What I've written is maybe just something to think about. Sam Waley-Cohen will do well not to think about it.

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Betting Briefing: So You Think to take on Workforce in Eclipse

Weekly Betfair Briefing / Timeform / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Workforce is an intended runner in the Eclipse on Saturday

"Last year's Derby and Arc winner Workforce is reportedly an intended runner as he bids to add a 10-furlong Group 1 to his record and he is set to clash with the top-class ex-Australian horse So You Think, who lost little caste in defeat in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot."

It's Irish Derby day at the Curragh on Sunday, and fast-forward to Saturday and you can see another Derby winner in the shape of Workforce, who goes for the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown...

Sunday June 26

There is Flat racing in Britain due to take place at Salisbury and Windsor on Sunday, while there is also an interesting NH card slated for Uttoxeter where the best race is the three-and-a-half-mile Summer National.

Over in Ireland, the Curragh is the venue for the third day of the Irish Derby festival, and the highlight is the Irish Derby itself. The market is headed by Carlton House, who will be attempting to reverse Epsom form with Treasure Beach, while the likes of Memphis Tennessee, Native Khan and Seville also represent the English Derby form. The best race on the supporting card at the Curragh is the Group 2 Railway Stakes over six furlongs for two-year-olds. Aidan O'Brien has won the race in the past with some of his best juveniles and he has a strong entry this year which includes the Coventry winner Power.

Monday June 27

Pontefract and Wolverhampton are the venues for afternoon racing on the Flat on Monday, while Musselburgh and Windsor take over for the evening action.

Tuesday June 28

There are three Flat meetings scheduled to take place in Britain on Tuesday: at Brighton and Hamilton in the afternoon and at Southwell in the evening. Stratford plays host to a summer jumping card in the evening, when there is also Flat racing at Sligo in Ireland.

Wednesday June 29

Jumping predominates on Wednesday afternoon with meetings set to take place at Perth and Worcester. On the Flat front, they race at Catterick in the afternoon and Chepstow and Kempton in the evening. The day's best race takes place in Ireland where the Group 3 Brownstown Stakes over seven furlongs for fillies and mares is the highlight of a seven-race card at Fairyhouse.

Thursday June 30

Haydock and Yarmouth on the Flat and Perth over jumps are the venues for racing in the afternoon on Thursday, while it's Epsom and Newbury on the level in the evening. Over in Ireland there will be a seven-race evening card at Leopardstown that includes the listed Golden Fleece Stakes for two-year-olds over seven furlongs.

Friday July 1

There are two listed races on the card at Sandown on the first day of July, when there is also afternoon action at Doncaster and Warwick to go with evening racing at Beverley and Haydock.

Saturday July 2

Saturday promises to provide one of the potential highlights of the Flat season in the shape of the mile-and-a-quarter Group 1 Eclipse Stakes at Sandown. Last year's Derby and Arc winner Workforce is reportedly an intended runner as he bids to add a 10-furlong Group 1 to his record and he is set to clash with the top-class ex-Australian horse So You Think, who lost little caste in defeat in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot. There is no shortage of quality on the rest of the card at Sandown, that includes the Group 3 Sprint Stakes over five-furlongs, a couple of listed races and a trio of highly competitive handicaps.

There is also quality racing at Haydock on Saturday where the feature event is the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks, though the big betting handicap of the day is the Old Newton Cup. Both races take place over a trip just short of a mile and a half. Beverley and Leicester also play host to racing on Saturday afternoon, as do Carlisle and Nottingham in the evening.

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Qatar Masters Betting: Think twice before backing Kaymer

Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The Doha course has not suited Kaymer in the past - why would it now?

"Having arrived here three times in stellar form only to fail miserably each time, one must assume there is something about the layout that doesn't fit Kaymer's game."

Paul Krishnamurty finds plenty of reasons to doubt [7.8] market favourite Martin Kaymer in Qatar this week, and finds a pair of players with which to oppose the German genius

If the new season were your first experience of golf betting, it would be easy to conclude that whereas the PGA Tour was a wide-open mug's game, picking Race to Dubai winners is as easy as shelling peas.

While the shortest priced winner of the four US events so far has been [90.0], the favourite has won the last three 'European' events. After scouring recent Euro Tour schedules, I can find no precedent for such a run, though I'm sure somebody with a longer memory can remember the last time it happened. Nor has the trend been restricted to favourites - the previous two winners started as third and second favourite.

It would of course be wrong to assume that those trends reflect anything deeper over the long-term. After all, the 2010 season saw only six favourites win throughout the entire year, and the general consensus is that the European Tour is becoming ever more competitive. Nevertheless, recent results at the Qatar Masters point to another predictable winner. Since this event began to attract top international stars halfway through the last decade, one of them has tended to win.

A golden opportunity for Martin Kaymer to deliver a fourth straight win for favourite backers and become world number one, then? Mike Norman certainly thinks so and punters have been quick to steam into odds of [7.8] about the German. I have to disagree.

I should add that has absolutely nothing to do with my wider view about Kaymer, who I agree will become world number one soon. Indeed, the last time he had such an opportunity at last autumn's Valderrama Masters, I tipped him at an almost identical price. Kaymer failed miserably on that occasion - perhaps due to the pressure, but that isn't part of my reasoning. He lacks nothing in the bottle department. Instead, my opposition is based on three grounds - price, opposition and most importantly, the course.

There is no sense in trying to find fault with Kaymer's performance to win his third Abu Dhabi title, because there were none. It was almost perfect, 'machine' golf. However, we already knew that the course was absolutely perfect for him on the basis of previous renewals, so there's no reason to assume he'll be anywhere near so dominant elsewhere. Against a field that also includes three other members of the world's top-seven, [7.8] is a very short price about anyone, especially given serious doubts about Kaymer's suitability for this Doha course.

Kaymer has played Doha three times, with a best result of just 31st. I suppose he could be forgiven at least one of the failures, as it came immediately after winning his first title. Many youngsters suffer such a reaction. But having arrived here three times in stellar form only to fail miserably each time, one must assume there is something about the layout that doesn't fit. I suspect it has much to do with tricky, undulating Bermuda greens, that are different and slower than at Abu Dhabi. Kaymer certainly wouldn't be the first classy player to struggle to get the hang of them.

Given those previous Doha failures, the best value may lie in laying Kaymer to finish in the top-ten and top-five. As for alternative picks, refer to my recent "Five to follow during the Desert Swing" piece. In addition to discussing Kaymer's prospects around these different layouts, Alvaro Quiros and Chris Wood were identified as players to follow. Quiros absolutely loves this layout, finishing first and second in the last two years, even when not quite at his best. A top-ten on a less suitable layout in Bahrain is the ideal prep.

Wood also took the eye on last year's Doha debut, starting poorly with 75 before fighting back to register a top-15 finish. He's started the season well and looks as likely a first-time winner as anyone. Moreover, the strong winds forecast this week are right up his street, as illustrated by top-fives on his first two cracks at the Open Championship.

Recommended Bets:
Lay Martin Kaymer to make the top-five @ [2.9]
Lay Martin Kaymer to make the top-ten @ [1.9]
Back Alvaro Quiros @ [16.5]
Back Chris Wood @ [70.0]

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