Jamie Lynch 
/ Jamie Lynch / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
A relaxed Sam Waley-Cohen and Long Run
"Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field..."
If the worst comes to the worst and Kauto Star is forced to miss the Gold Cup, then it's a simple task for Long Run and Sam Waley-Cohen. Or is it? Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch gets on his bike to find out...
Chris Hoy does about ten seconds of full-on pedalling in the Sprint, and not only does he get a medal for that, he gets a knighthood too. And a load of money from Kelloggs.
Of course, there's far more to the Sprint than the actual sprint as - and you'll know exactly what bit I mean here - there are those opening few laps where the two cyclists play the ultimate game of cat and mouse and go about as fast as a fat Dalek. It's captivating stuff, and the one held up - the hunter - always always seems to win.
I've looked it up, and apparently there are all sorts of scientific and physiological reasons why the chaser is favoured, from energy distribution to the aerodynamic drag, but nowhere does it mention the human psyche and its effect; the positive mentality of being the hunter rather than the hunted.
When Hoy hits the velodrome, he knows he's got one man to beat, he knows exactly the time in which he's got to do it, he knows exactly the point at which he's got to push it, and therefore he can focus all his resources on one job against one rival with one aim. Hoy is brilliant in its execution, but it's a simple equation nonetheless.
It's a simple equation for Long Run in a Cheltenham Gold Cup with Kauto Star in it. Long Run has got one horse to beat, to hunt down, and making it a one-on-one pursuit, like the cycling Sprint, means a specific plan of action can be drawn up, including contingencies. Yes, Long Run has failed twice in his role as the hunter this season, unable to catch Kauto Star, but plenty will have been taken from Haydock and Kempton - 'I learned much more from defeat than I ever learned from winning' - and, above that, Long Run will be doing the hunting on his territory this time, with the stiffer track and two extra furlongs.
If Kauto Star doesn't make it, Long Run will be unawares, but Sam Waley-Cohen will know the state of play, and won't he just. In sport, there's a very different psychology involved in being the hunted. Just ask Andrew Strauss.
After England beat India 4-0 last summer, in the process becoming number one in the world Test rankings, Strauss said: 'The next 12 months will be the biggest test we've had yet; it's a different mindset being the hunters rather than the hunted.' What happened in the next series? England got beaten up 3-0 by Pakistan. And what happened in the subsequent one-day series against the same team, when England reverted to underdogs and reverted to hunting? England savaged them 4-0.
Long Run's price has inevitably contracted, and it will do so more if Kauto is ruled out, reflecting the far easier task for the horse, but the question I'm tentatively asking is would the shortened price take full account of the different task for the jockey? And - this is where we have to be brutally honest - it's not a seasoned jockey that we're talking about. Sam Waley-Cohen knows the horse inside out, the pair have already won a Gold Cup, and the jockey also finished second in the Grand National last year, which might seem like question answered, but the difference between those races and a Kauto-less Gold Cup is pressure; the pressure brought about by being the hunted.
Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field...and they weren't altogether convincing. The fact that they pretty much scrambled home there, whatever the reason, is something else that might just prey on Waley-Cohen's mind, and the weight of expectation in the Gold Cup will be on a different scale to what it was at Newbury if Long Run finds himself at Cheltenham without Kauto to share the attention.
Long Run and Waley-Cohen always has been and always will be a partnership in which the jockey is scrutinised almost as much as the horse, because of his amateur status, and that would be intensified in a Gold Cup which looked at his mercy. The pressure, the expectation and the onus would all be on Waley-Cohen, and that itself complicates the issue.
In some ways, Long Run is comparable to Chris Hoy's bike, in that neither will be aware of the pressures and expectations, whoever is in opposition. In both cases that is a problem for the riders and the riders alone.
Kauto Star missing the Gold Cup would undoubtedly increase Long Run's chances of winning it, but, tangentially, it might just ask different questions of his rider, requiring a lot more tactical thought than a one-on-one scenario.
What I've written is maybe just something to think about. Sam Waley-Cohen will do well not to think about it.
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