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July Cup Preview: The Olympic picks

Athleticism and talent is what the Olympics is all about, and the same goes for horse racing, so Jamie Lynch has married the two to try and unearth the July Cup winner...

Hidden Gem-ili. Adam had 'em. Adam and Beli-eve. Gemili, Gemili, Gemili, Gemili: Life is but a dream. If you could patent headlines like you can patent inventions, then we need never do a patent bet again, too busy counting cash, because some of the above, and a few better ones besides, will be used and abused in the next month in conjunction with the big Olympics-related story: Adam Gemili.

Gemili, the new sensation of British athletics, this week became World Junior 100m Champion, in the process breaking the national youth record with a non-Turftrax time of 10.05 secs. To put that in some context, the quickest 100m times in the world so far this year have been 9.75 by Yohan Blake, 9.76 by Usain Bolt, and 4.66 (hand timed) by Tom Queally at around 2:32pm on the 19th of last month. What makes it all the more of a feel-good, flag-waving, Richard Curtis-esque story is that, only six months ago, the boy Gemili had an entirely different career, as a footballer, employed by Dagenham & Redbridge and playing on loan for lowly Thurrock.

Adam Gemili had come to a dead end down one career path, as a footballer, but all along he had the potential to be a champion sprinter, and here he is with the chance to express himself truly and fully by showcasing his speed on the biggest stage. Sounds a lot like Strong Suit, who has come to a dead end down one career path, as a miler, but all along had the potential to be a champion sprinter, and here he is with the chance to express himself truly and fully by showcasing his speed on the biggest stage, in the Group 1 July Cup.

He's treading a well-worn path. Since 2000, seven July Cup winners - Agnes World, Mozart, Pastoral Pursuits, Les Arcs, Marchand d'Or, Starspangledbanner and Dream Ahead - had tried to be moulded into something they weren't, raced over at least a mile (or two, amazingly, in the case of Les Arcs), prior to reverting to sprinting with a Group 1 bang.

Strong Suit is top-rated by Timeform in the July Cup, and therefore you might think it's a very simple equation: best form in the line-up + high cruising speed + drop back to sprinting = certainty. If only. If only racing was that simple. Unfortunately, the calculation doesn't end there, as some division has to be done, and in Strong Suit's case it's the going. Since he was slammed by Dream Ahead in the Middle Park in October 2010, incidentally the last time he raced at as short as six furlongs, Strong Suit hasn't gone near soft ground, by connections' design, and conditions at Newmarket have reduced his winning percentage chance (to 9%) as well as my enthusiasm for him: from McDonalds-coffee hot to carvery-veg lukewarm.

If Strong Suit is Adam Gemili, let's see if we can fit the other July Cup contenders to appropriate Olympians, past or present, and work out their percentage chance.

BATED BREATH: Viktor Lisitsky. The nearly man. Russian gymnast Lisitsky, who competed at the '64 and '68 games, holds the unenviable record of most silver medals (five) without any gold. Lisitsky would have swept the board in many other eras, in common with Bated Breath who has had to settle for second in four Group 1s so far. Still, a brilliant, consistent athlete, and damned handsome to boot. Winning chance: 21%

DANDY BOY: Adam Gemili's slightly less talented brother, if he's got one. To label him as a poor man's Strong Suit is unfair, so let's say a not-so-rich man's Strong Suit; shorter on raw ability but identical in profile in that he has spent much of his time over longer trips while looking a sprinter, a point proved at Royal Ascot when, reverted to six furlongs, he won the Wokingham under a big weight. Winning chance: 8%

GENKI: Brendan Foster (in his capacity as commentator and not athlete). Familiar and always nice to see him at the big events, but while he just about justified his presence in his prime, he's not really up to it these days. Winning chance: 1.5%

HAWKEYETHENOO: Liz McColgan. Scottish, tough, likeable, legs of iron, but too one paced to win at the top level. Winning chance: 1.5%

KRYPTON FACTOR: Wilson Kipketer. Shunned the country he started in, but took off once he did. Won three times at the World Championships, or the Dubai Carnival as it was for Krypton Factor, but struggled to reproduce that form in other competitions. Winning chance: 3.8%

LIBRANNO: John Regis. Powerful, front-running, barrel-shaped, second-tier sprinter, always gave his running - and won more than his share at Group 2 level - but not good enough to outspeed the leading sprinters of his time. Winning chance: 6%

MAYSON: Phillips Idowu. Injury restricted early career, yet looked a prospective worldbeater once he got going, but wheels have come off lately, and questions persist about current physical well-being. Winning chance: 3%

SEPOY: Jana Pittman-Rawlinson. Australian 400m hurdler who was prolific in her field, until some British-based intervention (married English athlete Chris Rawlinson), and the problems started then, never quite the same under different management. Winning chance: 7%

SIRIUS PROSPECT: Mo Farah. Transformed and very successful in 2011, looked destined for the top, but not yet the same force this year, albeit step back in right direction last time out. Winning chance: 5%

SOCIETY ROCK: Matthew Clive Pinsent. Often overshadowed, often underestimated, often overlooked, but a very high-achiever with several 'been there and done that' t-shirts in his wardrobe, and he has more power and ability than most of his rivals in this particular Olympic line-up. A good sidekick obviously helps, though, and Society Rock has the best in Ryan Moore. Winning chance: 23%

THE CHEKA: Nick Skelton. Seems to have been around for donkey's years - in fact he has been around for donkey's years - but the big prize always has been and always will be beyond him. Winning chance: 2.4%

ORTENSIA: Willie Davenport. An Olympian who liked the sun but evidently wasn't so good in colder climates: he won gold in the '68 summer Olympics (110m hurdles) but trailed down the field as part of the bobsleigh team at the winter games in '80. Ortensia didn't look so effective at wintry Royal Ascot as she had at home in sunny Australia. Winning chance: 8.4%

REPLY: Tom Daley. Precocious. Might not have trained on as expected. Winning chance: 2.6%

FIRE LILY: Beth Tweddle. No beauty. Younger than you might think, because she's done a lot, but hard to see her suddenly finding the required improvement to win on the biggest stage, at which she's tried and failed previously. Winning chance: 5.8%

There it is then, the July Cup in Olympian format, and the one with the highest percentage winning chance, according to the scientific and precise calculations, is Matthew Pinsent, a.k.a. Society Rock. Contrary to popular belief, Society Rock isn't only an Ascot specialist, but compliant with popular belief, Society Rock does relish soft ground, and proven ability under such conditions is absolutely crucial, as Strong Suit (a.k.a Adam Gemili) may discover. While all eyes were on Black Caviar (a.k.a. Fanny Blankers-Koen) and the unfolding drama at the line in the Diamond Jubilee, Society Rock was flying home after a slow start, but for which he'd have won, and he can make amends here.

Recommendation: Row in with Pinsent, a.k.a.Society Rock, in the July Cup.

......
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The Punter's picks for the Omega European Masters and the Deutsche Championship

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jason Day – Runner-up last year, can he go one better?

“I tried very hard to stop myself from backing Jason Day but failed. Last year’s runner-up impresses almost every week and it’s highly possible that he’ll be bobbing around the top of the leaderboard come Monday night.”

Steve looks to the Spanish contingency for success in the Alps. Whilst in the States, is it going to be Jason's Day on Monday?

The picturesque Crans-sur-Sierre course hosts the Omega European Masters for the 65th time this year and the event, now co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour, has attracted one of the best non-major line-ups of the season.

A strong case can be made for any of the first three in the market. Rory McIlroy should have won his maiden event here in 2008, and he finished 7th a year later. Lee Westwood won here way back in 1999 and he's been in tremendous form of late (until he gets to the green and putts!) and Matteo Manassero will win this event at some stage. His third placed finish last year could very easily have been better and his game clearly fits the venue perfectly. But are any of them a value price?

We've not seen Rors since his crazy wrist-wrecking tree root trick at the PGA Championship. Westwood's putting is atrocious, and his form here hasn't been as spectacular as the views since his win anyway, and Manny is not in great form, though he was the closest to inclusion.

I was tempted by Francesco Molinari, who like Manny has the game for Crans, and had he been a fraction bigger I'd have taken a chance on the out-of-form Italian. And Alex Noren and Seung-Yul Noh were both also on the shortlist but in the end I've left them all out.

My first pick is last year's winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez, at what could be a huge price. This is the popular veteran's 23rd consecutive appearance and he has ten top-ten finishes here. His last three year's figures read 3-4-1. He hasn't been himself since breaking his putter in Bahrain but with a course record so strong, he simply had to be backed. Besides, I envisage a bit of Spanish inspiration this year...

The late Seve Ballesteros will be on the minds of many this week and there's a strong Spanish contingency. Crans was the scene of one his most wondrous shots and a marble plaque on the 18th commemorates it. He made numerous course changes back in the 1990's and if there's an event the Spanish will want to bag this season, it's this one, so I've backed a number of them.

There are few players in the field (if any) in better form than South African George Coetzee and after coming up close with him last week in Scotland, I've again supported him here. There's every chance he could bounce after last week's near miss but if he doesn't, with its drivable par fours and reachable par fives, George could just get on a roll.

I've detailed the case for Thorbjorn Olesen and Brett Rumford in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner piece and I've also backed the 2001 champ, Argentine Ricardo Gonzalez at a monster price.

Selections:

Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [40.0]
George Coetzee @ [50.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [120.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [170.0]
Brett Rumford @ [180.0]
Pablo Martin @ [260.0]
Alejandro Canizares @ [300.0]
Ricardo Gonzalez @ [310.0]

The ninth staging of the Deutsche Bank Championship, which doesn't start until Friday, is the second FedEx Cup playoff event. It's Labor Day on Monday in the States and this event traditionally finishes up on Monday.

Charley Hoffman was a shock winner twelve months ago but most years a really class-act picks up the prize. Five of the eight winners to date have been ranked in the top three in the world rankings at the time of their victory and in contrast to the European Masters, I don't think trawling through the players at big odds will pay dividends and all four of my picks are relatively short.

Given he's only chalked up one win so far, I tried very hard to stop myself from backing Jason Day but failed. Last year's runner-up impresses almost every week and it's highly possible that he'll be bobbing around the top of the leaderboard come Monday night.

Olin Browne and Steve Stricker have both won here so you don't necessarily need to bomb it off the tee but it certainly helps. Where it lands doesn't appear to matter too much though- Driving Accuracy isn't an important stat. The stats that do count at TPC Boston are Par 5 performance, Greens In Regulation and Birdie Average.

Five of the eight winners have ranked first for Par 5 Performance and two have ranked second. Seven of the eight winners have ranked in the top-10 for GIR and making lots of birdies is essential - Hoffman made 28 last year!

Webb Simpson looks the perfect fit. He currently ranks second for Par 5 Performance, 14th for GIR and third for Birdie Average. His first round 71 at The Barclays was just too poor to see him go back-to-back after his maiden win at the Wyndham Championship a fortnight ago but he finished like a train with rounds of 66 and 63. He's plainly in good heart, has the game for the venue and at [40.0], he was a no-brainer pick.

Another of last week's selections, Camilo Villegas, gets another chance. He's going in the right direction all of a sudden with two top-10's in-a-row and he was third here in 2008. And finally, Bubba Watson ranks in the top-12 for all three key stats and he could just bounce back to form at a big price.

Selections:

Jason Day @ [26.0]
Webb Simpson @ [40.0]
Camilo Villegas @ [65.0]
Bubba Watson @ [70.0]

It's been a good week for Steve, as Dustin Johnson wins a sprint in New Jersey and Thomas Bjorn eventually secures victory in a Scottish marathon......

With a win in the bag in the States already, our man takes a detailed look at the state of play at Gleneagles and it's a case of Bjorn again for Steve......

Rock steady Robert gets the nod in Scotland and Rose is taken to bloom in New Jersey. Read the Punter's preview of this week's golf action here......

Betfair website

NFL Draft Results: Quarter-Back heavy picks

NFL / Andy Richmond / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Prince Amukamara moved to the New York Giants

"Those surprises at the top end of the draft created some excellent value lower down with Detroit (Nick Fairley), Minnesota (Christian Ponder), St Louis Rams (Robert Quinn) and the New York Giants (Prince Amukamara) all far better players than their position in round one of the draft would suggest."

Cam Newton ended up at the Carolina Panthers as expected but there a few other surprises elsewhere. Andy Richmond gives us the lowdown on Thursday night's action.

With so much of the "action" in the NFL of late taking place in the law courts (as the owners and players' labour dispute rumbles on) it was edifying to see some events which may affect the 2011 NFL season on the pitch take place on Thursday night as the 2011 NFL Draft got underway.

As things stand it's only the end of Round One and therefore hard to judge the overall quality but in some ways the draft mirrored last season and got a little crazy at times. The offence-driven NFL saw the draft become quarterback heavy, with four going in the first 12 picks.

There were no surprises in the first three picks - the much hyped or vaunted Cam Newton went to the Carolina Panthers to address their quarterback problems although on a side which went 2-14 last season, he'll need to live up to his billing to get them anywhere near the play-offs. Don't get me wrong on Newton, he is a huge raw talent but that's the key word - raw - and he will have to learn quickly in the NFL. And that's something which I'm not sure he can do. Time is the one thing that he doesn't have to learn how to become an NFL quarterback and the skills that go with it is a huge ask on one year's college experience.

Three other signal callers were taken in the first round to equal the four taken in the 2004 draft, although it remains to be seen whether these four measure up to the class of '04 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and J.P Losman). The surprising pick amongst this bunch was Jake Locker going to the Titans especially with two (in my opinion) better options in Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert available. Those two found homes in Minnesota and Jacksonville respectively and completed the quarterback stampede in the first round.

Picks two and three were the property of Denver and Buffalo - they both had defensive problems , amongst others, to fix. Denver took Von Miller to address their pass rush issues but surely they would have been better to take Marcell Dareus who the Bulls seized upon gratefully. Dareus will really help with their run defence which was ranked 32nd in the NFL last season. The Broncos may have got the worst end of this deal.

For my money the best pick in the top five came at number five where Cardinals drafted cornerback Patrick Peterson. Combine him with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Arizona have the ultimate coverage package.

Beyond that top five there were some very strange decisions that came out of the draft "war rooms" - in fact they flew in the face of most of the mock drafts that I had seen. Possibly the strangest and the riskiest was the Atlanta Falcons trading up to get wide receiver Julio Jones, that cost them a package of five future draft picks, including their first round-pick in 2012. It gives then two go-to receivers but leaves then still weak defensively and that's where they were expected to strengthen in the draft - whilst not season defining, it is a brave pick.

Those surprises at the top end of the draft created some excellent value lower down with Detroit (Nick Fairley), Minnesota (Christian Ponder), St Louis Rams (Robert Quinn) and the New York Giants (Prince Amukamara) all far better players than their position in round one of the draft would suggest.

Two notable absences from Round One were Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers and Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett; both will surely be snapped up early on in the next round. Injury and attitude doubts respectively holding them back on this occasion.

The strength and success of the draft will ultimately be defined by results during the 2011 season as long as the current dispute is solved - my initial feelings are that those who had the earlier picks will need a lot more than these singular selections to turn their seasons around and those with a solid base from last season are more likely to maintain their form.

This year's NFL Draft is smothered in confusion. The combination of the ongoing labour dispute between owners and players and the lack of a clear-cut candidate to be top pick has left the market wide open. Let's try and work...

There are a plethora of side markets for Sunday's big game - so here are a plethora of side bets for Sunday's big game...

BB's American Football expert Andy Richmond analyses the big one and predicts a defensive classic...

Betfair website

The Punter's picks for the Trophee Hassan II and the Shell Houston Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Stuart Appleby – The Punter’s most obvious pick in Houston

“Not only has Stuart Appleby won here and should have won here twice but he also won the title in 1999 and was runner-up in 2003. In short, Apples loves Houston and [55.0] was plenty big enough.”

Freddie gets the nod in nigh on impossible Morocco and there's a team of four in Texas, where the picture's somewhat clearer...

This week's Race to Dubai event, the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco, looks a nigh on impossible puzzle to solve. It's a pro-am with a distinctly second division field staged over two courses and two different courses to those used last year to boot! I simply did not know where to start, or whether it was even worth starting and I wasn't a million miles from not even having a bet before the off, but where's the fun in that? And anyway, one player looked way too big - Sweden's Freddie Andersson-Hed.

It's less than two months since Freddie was finishing 7th in the Dubai Desert Classic, a far better event than this one and that came just a week after a missed cut in Qatar, so a couple of weekends off recently needn't be a huge negative, especially considering he shot 67 last Friday, ten shots better than he'd shot on Thursday.

Freddie was a winner last year at the Italian Open, finished tied 2nd at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, was an excellent 6th at the HSBC Champions event in China and is far too good to have been as big as [140.0] to win such a weak event. And I see I'm not alone, Paul Krishnamurty has him as one of his Find Me A 100 Winner picks this week too.

Selection:

Freddie Andersson-Hed @ an average of [135.0]

There's much more to go on in the States at the 64th Shell Houston Open, staged for the sixth year running at the Redstone GC Tournament Course, so here are a few pointers...

Paul Casey, the 2009 champ, is the only European to have ever won the event.

Although water comes into play on 10 holes, driving accuracy at Redstone appears almost irrelevant. Last year's winner, Anthony Kim, actually finished last of those that made the cut for fairways hit.

It's not essential to be long off the tee either. Although the last two winners, Kim and Casey, and Adam Scott, successful in 2007, were all in the top-10 for driving distance, the other two Redstone winners, Johnson Wagner and Stuart Appleby only ranked 53rd and 27th respectively.

It's not easy to establish whether putting or accurate iron play is more important - some of the five winners here have hit plenty of greens and some have had a great week with the putter.

We also have to add in the quandary of which players are really up for it and which are readying themselves for next week. Phil Mickelson for one will almost certainly be thinking about Augusta. When interviewed after the event last year he said this wasn't an ideal course to prepare for Augusta, stating that he has to use his driver all week to prepare for the Masters but that with all the water in play he knows he's going to put himself in trouble a lot, and last year he did.

Confused? So was I. Maybe I should have written confusing stats instead of pointers! But fortunately there is one very good pattern emerging that could well lead to profits in-running. Just like Augusta next week, it seems you really have to be up with the pace at Redstone.

In 2007 Stuart Appleby led from start to finish. Then a year later he messed up the final hole to let in Adam Scott and to scupper a repeat of the feat. Twelve months later Wagner led all the way and Paul Casey led from round two onwards in '09, having been tied for 4th after day one. And then last year Kim's end of round positions were 3-4-1-1. I know it's only five years form but it does look a strong trend.

Given all the above, I've taken it easy here with just four modest plays from the get-go and I'll be looking to build a profitable portfolio in play.

The shortest priced and most obvious selection is Stuart Appleby. Not only has he won here and should have won here twice but he also won the title in 1999 and was runner-up in 2003. In short, Apples loves Houston and [55.0] was plenty big enough.

My other three are all Texas residents. Ben Crane has been off with a rib injury so there's a slight risk there but he's quite sensible and tends to withdraw before the off if he's not right. If he is right, [60.0] was generous. He's been in decent form this year and has two top-25 finishes from three starts here, despite very poor opening rounds.

Gary Woodland looks a good fit for Redstone where his big-hitting should be a plus, although he did miss the cut here on his only previous outing two years ago. The big downside is that he may already have done his winning. It's possibly a lot to ask to hope he'll win again, just two weeks after his impressive victory at Copperhead but he's a big enough price to take the risk.

And last up is Chad Campbell, who really should have won here in '08. I must be mad but he gets one more last try!

Selections:

Stuart Appleby @ [55.0]
Ben Crane @ [60.0]
Gary Woodland @ [75.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]

I'll be back on Friday with the Live Golf Blog.

It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet......

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

Betfair website

The Punter's picks for the Honda Classic

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Y E Yang – A former winner of the Honda and one of the Punter’s picks

“Successful here two years ago and in fair form, Y E Yang’s a really tough competitor and he’ll handle the windy conditions, should they materialise.”

Steve looks forward to this week's sole event...Can he find winner number five in 2011?

After Luke Donald became my fourth pre-event winner of the year last week, following successes with Louis Oosthuizen, Martin Kaymer and Alvaro Quiros, I was keen as mustard to get going with the studying this week but with no Race to Dubai event I've only had the Honda Classic on the US PGA Tour to concentrate on. This is the fifth year in-a-row that the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Florida has been used and now I've got a feel for the place picking fancies wasn't difficult, but getting prices about them was and it's as much a case of who I haven't backed as who I have....

I really should have taken the [60.0] available about Robert Allenby on Sunday but something stopped me. Maybe it's the fact he hasn't won on US soil for ten years, or maybe it was his dreadful lag putting during the final round of the Northern Trust Open. Whatever it was, I can certainly live with not backing him at less than [40.0], even though he lives next door to the course, clearly loves it here and will cope admirably with the strong winds forecast.

Last week's hero, Luke Donald, won this tournament in 2006 before it moved venues, and he was 2nd here in '08, but he'll surely be drained and looks woefully short - though I certainly respect his chances. Lee Westwood and Graeme McDowell both fared well last year but look a little short and the resurgent V J Singh also played well here twelve months ago and looks to be back in the groove, but will his putting hold up if he gets a sniff of victory? Ian Poulter looks attractively priced and he's bound to be keen to get back in the saddle, after being cruelly denied at the death last week by Stewart Cink in round one of his Match Play title defence, but he's not played here since 2007 - when he failed to break 70, so he's been left out too. And of the bigger prices both Spencer Levin and Jimmy Walker are in fine fettle and were close to making the final draft but again - I felt they were a shade short and the wrong side of [100.0]. So that's who's out, now for who's in...

Successful here two years ago and in fair form, my first pick is Y E Yang. He reached the last eight of last week's Match Play after defying the odds three times - most impressively when dumping out Graeme McDowell. He missed the cut at the Northern Trust Open two weeks ago but made the top-10 again in Phoenix the week before. I wouldn't say he's any better than a fair price now but he's a really tough competitor and he'll handle the windy conditions, should they materialise.

Another player that won't mind it blowing is last year's runner-up Anthony Kim, though I recognise I'm taking a big gamble with his wellbeing. He either spat the dummy out against Nick Watney in the first round last week or he was still feeling unwell having withdrawn from the Northern Trust, apparently suffering from flu. There were signs at the Farmers Insurance Open that Kim could finally be over his wrist injury and if he has been poorly for the last few weeks, and if he's now back to full fitness, then [55.0] was a massive price for such a classy player with course form.

Given that we've seen nothing but triple-figure priced winners on the US PGA Tour this year, I'm more than happy to add a couple at big prices. Jason Dufner very nearly broke his duck just a few weeks ago in Phoenix when he produced a much improved in-contention effort - losing to Mark Wilson in a play-off. He appeared to take a little while to work through that disappointment but two weekend rounds in the 60's at Riviera may have done the trick. His 40th placed finish last year isn't too inspiring but the fact that he finished 13th in 2007 and 9th in '09 shows he has an aptitude for the venue. I felt he was worth taking a chance on at such a big price.

Paul Krishnamurty has reasoned the case for my final pick, Stephen Ames, in his Find Me A 100 Winner piece. I was fortunate enough to get a bit matched at [230.0] on the Canadian early on Monday but he's still a belting good price as he ticks an awful lot of boxes. He was one of my picks last year at just [80.0] before he'd even played here. He shot 64 in round two before going on to finish tied 17th 12 months ago and that experience can only help. I fancy he could go really, really well.

Selections:

Y E Yang @ [55.0]
Anthony Kim @ [55.0]
Jason Dufner @ [110.0]
Stephen Ames @ an average of [210.0]

I'll be back on Friday with the Live Golf Blog to survey the scene after round one.

Steve looks forward to this week's sole event...Can he find winner number five in 2011?...

Devastating Donald delivers as Steve finds success at the Matchplay.......

Steve looks forward to an entertaining day one at the Match Play but he's hardly brimming with confidence.......

Betfair website

The Punter's Picks for WGC Match Play and the Mayakoba Classic

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Geoff Ogilvy – superb event form and one of the Punter’s picks

“Ogilvy’s record in this event is quite simply superb. He absolutely battered last year’s finalist, Paul Casey, in the 2009 final, two years after losing in the final to Henrik Stenson and three years after winning the event on debut.”

Steve looks forward to an entertaining day one at the Match Play but he's hardly brimming with confidence....

We're on the eve of one of the most exciting and enjoyable days in sport, let alone golf. Day one of the WGC Accenture Match Play is a joy to behold. Action packed and fast paced, the top-64 in the world (give or take a couple of exceptions) will be whittled down to 32 and there'll be shocks aplenty.

After that it all slows down a bit, with the round of 32 on Thursday, 16 on Friday and, in a change to the format of old, just the quarter-final matches will be played on Saturday. This year the final will be over just 18 holes and will follow the semi's on Sunday - a big improvement in my eyes.

My record in this event is appalling and I can't profess to being too confident of my selections this year either, but you never know, my luck in the event has to change at some point, doesn't it?

Last year I backed a raft of outsiders from all sections of the draw and that worked well until the final 16. Five of my dozen picks made it through the first two rounds but a disastrous third day saw only Thongchai Jaidee make it through to the quarter-finals, before he lost his nerve against eventual winner Ian Poulter.

In last year's event there were a number of shocks in the first two rounds but then the favourites prevailed and with that in mind, all my picks are players I can genuinely see going all the way - as opposed to being big -priced outsiders that I'd hope to get as far as the semi-finals to trade out. Which was last year's failed plan. So in price order, this year's sorry souls, almost evenly dispersed across the brackets, are as follows...

Phil Mickelson @ [26.0] - Ben Hogan Bracket

Lefty's record is far from inspiring in this event and it's hard to see why. In theory, his cavalier, birdie-making, attacking and occasionally wayward style should be ideal. A double-bogey or worse will only result in one lost hole and his ability to make plenty of birdies should stand him in good stead. He wasn't on my shortlist originally but with a (supposedly) easy first round opponent in the shape of Brendan Jones and a potentially inspiring second round match against event debutant, Rickie Fowler, I thought he was fairly priced.

Fowler performed brilliantly at the Ryder Cup last year and has a Walker Cup record that reads 7-1-0 but he does seem to have gone off the boil and I'd fancy Lefty to just get the better of him. That said young Rickie has to get past a real tough nut to crack in Peter Hanson first anyway.

Geoff Ogilvy @ [29.0] - Sam Snead Bracket

Geoff has a potentially tough scrap against Padraig Harrington, followed by a likely encounter with Tiger Woods and a third round tussle with any one of these four quality Americans -Dustin Johnson, Mark Wilson, Bubba Watson or Bill Haas. And if he does scrape through three rounds, he could well face Paul Casey, in the last eight! Sounds tough I know but Ogilvy's record in this event is quite simply superb.

He absolutely battered last year's finalist, Casey, in the 2009 final, two years after losing in the final to Henrik Stenson and three years after winning the event on debut. It's a tough draw but he's a very tough match play exponent and besides, what often looks a tough draw can open right up and be anything but.

Luke Donald @ [46.0] - Bobby Jones Bracket

Luke's Match Play record is nothing short of magnificent - Unbeaten in four Walker Cup singles matches, his record in the amateur event reads seven points from a possible eight. He's a duel winner of the World Cup and has an impressive Ryder Cup record too, of his eleven matches to date; he's won eight, halved one and lost just two, and one of those was in Wales on day one and very much down to an out-of-sorts Pod.

In six starts in this event he's never once failed to get through his opening match. With the exception of an awkward looking possible third round opponent in the shape of Charl Schwartzel, Luke has a decent early draw and I fancy him to go well.

Alvaro Quiros @ [50.0] - Ben Hogan Bracket

Much like Mickelson - who Alvaro could meet (if I'm very, very lucky) in the quarter-finals, Quiros has the sort of game that should suit this event. When he won in Dubai two weeks ago, it was despite a pair of triple-bogeys. Mistakes like that are very hard to overcome in stroke-play and nowhere near as damaging in this format.

He has a great record in the desert and can't be blamed for last year's heavy first round defeat - incredibly, Mike Weir birdied 10 of the 12 holes they played on his way to an 8 & 6 win.

His first round tie against Y E Yang will be no pushover and if he get through that he faces a really tough second round match against either Stewart Cink or defending champ Ian Poulter, both of whom have tremendous match play records and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off Poults at above [30.0]. Should he reach round three he's likely to meet either Graham McDowell or Ross Fisher, so it's a really tough draw but after he'd finished 2nd in Qatar and won in Dubai, I told myself I'd back him here - if I could get over [40.0] and although it's a task and a half he has in front of him, I felt I had to have him onside.

Ben Crane @ [100.0] and Zach Johnson @ [130.0] - Gary Player Bracket

I thought this looked the weakest of the four brackets, with Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy looking the ones to beat. Kaymer's record is far from great in the event though and he didn't particularly impress on his Ryder Cup debut. Whilst wobbly Rors is simply never a betting proposition for my money - though I do think this format suits him better than stroke play.

Both Crane and Johnson have decent match play records and could be over-priced - hopefully they'll meet in the last eight to fight for the right to play Ogilvy in the semi finals. Doesn't it sound easy!

There is one more event this week - the Mayakoba Classic in Mexico on the PGA Tour. I'm leaving that alone until after day one though. In the first four years of the event, nobody has come from any further back than 6th after the first round. Fred Funk made all the running in the inaugural event, Brian Gay was the tournament's 'closer' a year later, Mark Wilson was fourth after one round in 2009 and last year's front two - Cameron Beckman and Joe Durant had been 2nd and 1st after day one. It looks a real front-runner's event and I'll get stuck in on Friday morning.

Paul Krishnamurty will be back each day with his picks at the Match Play, so there'll be no Live Blog this week but I'll be back on Monday with a reflection on the week in my Tournament De-Brief.

Steve looks forward to an entertaining day one at the Match Play but he's hardly brimming with confidence.......

Not a great weekend for Steve as he rues not backing SSP in India and fails to lay Boom Boom at Riviera........

SSP collects, as Robert Coles crashing on the last.......

Betfair website

The Punter's picks for the Avantha Masters and the Northern Trust Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bubba Watson – One of the Punter’s picks at Riviera

“Bubba’s improving all the time for my money and a second win looks inevitable in 2011; let’s get it out of the way nice and quickly.”

Our man picks out a moustache sporting New Delhi hat-trick seeker and in the States, he surprisingly swerves his favourite player....

I was sorry to see the end of the Gulf Swing, where sane viewing times and upheld course form resulted in an enjoyable and profitably four week stretch. It's all rather different this week though, as the Race to Dubai takes a pretty drastic dip in quality with the tri-sanctioned Avantha Masters in India. Asian and Indian Tour members will do battle with European Tour stalwarts at the DLF Golf and Country Club in New Delhi and although it looks a tricky puzzle to solve I've drawn on happy memories of last year's renewal, when I dug out winner Andrew Dodt at the juicy odds of [80.0]. Let's see if I can repeat the feat!

There were a number of Asian Tour players that caught the eye and Mike's main man Gaganjeet Bhullar was top of the list but I felt I just couldn't back him at less than [40.0], especially considering I took [460.0] about him in Hong Kong just three months ago! Towards the head of the market Thongchai Jaidee looks a fair price if, and it's a fairly big if, you can forgive last week's missed cut.

Given the quality of the field and the fact that the event will be played out throughout the earlier hours, especially over the first two days, I've not gone mad by any means and all of my picks are for modest stakes at big prices.

My first selection is Thai veteran Prayad Marksaeng. He missed the cut here last year but he's got a bit of course form from years ago and most importantly, he's found something with his putter just lately.

Rickard Karlberg looks like a star of the future and an entertaining one at that. His website's well worth a gander and his frequent updates show that he's probably a bit of a character. He'll be sporting a new moustache this week and that's all because he spoke more Swedish than his caddy on the back nine of last Sunday's final round in Dubai! Of course backing someone because they've lost a facial hair wager with their bag-rat is not particularly scientific nor is it the reason I'm backing Rick. He impressed me greatly when he finished in a tie for third alongside Graeme McDowell at the prestigious Singapore Masters and he's already played in New Delhi twice, and won twice! He finished third on last year's Asian Tour money-list and that was largely due to victories at the Sail Open in April and the Hero Honda Indian Open as recently as December.

I've also backed Marcel Siem, who was a pick last year when he led after day one and a couple of Thai favourites of mine in promising youngster Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Chapchai Nirat.

Selections:

Prayad Marksaeng @ [70.0]
Rickard Karlberg @ [80.0]
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ [90.0]
Marcel Siem @ [110.0]
Chapchai Nirat @ [200.0]

The US event is where the quality lies this week and the Northern Trust Open has yet again attracted a strong field. Strong enough for me to swerve my ole mate Phil Mickelson, which will certainly surprise fellow columnist Paul Krishnamurty.

As Paul points out, I'm a huge Lefty fan and whilst I take issue with the title of his piece, as I'd gladly take [10.0], or [9.8] if we're being picky, about the Augusta specialist in the US Masters each year, for once I'm in agreement re Phil the Thrill.

Yes he has great course form here but he also has a fine record at both Pebble Beach and Phoenix.... When he pitched up in Phoenix a fortnight ago it was off the back of very decent effort at the Farmers Insurance Open - where he finished 2nd at the generous sp of above [20.0]. I took [19.0] but he was friendless after I'd backed him. I took [9.2] in Phoenix, where he lost the plot after halfway and after much deliberation, against weaker opposition, I took [10.5] last week.

He may have topped the GIR (Greens in Regulation) stats last week but, unusually for him, he scrambled poorly and he's been woeful with the putter for the last two weeks. Add to that the fact that I fancy he'll get an afternoon tee time on Thursday to suit the TV boys and I can't see any value at around [9.0]. I'm hoping for that afternoon start on day one now and if it materialises I'm confident I can comfortably beat his current price in-running because I'll still want him onside to some degree.

And I'm also in agreement with Paul re a couple of his picks. I very nearly backed Anthony Kim but felt he was just a fraction short but the same can't be said about Bubba Watson. He looks to have the ideal game for Riviera and I was so impressed with him at Torrey Pines when he held off Lefty. Two missed cuts sandwich two top-20 finishes here but I expect an improvement this week - Bubba's improving all the time for my money and a second win looks inevitable in 2011; let's get it out of the way nice and quickly.

It's already falling in India and rain's also forecasted here and in the past that's when the less obvious results have occurred at Riviera, so all my other picks are at triple-figure odds.

Louis Oosthuizen's putting was so bad in Qatar the other week that I thought I'd be swerving him for some time but with the forecast rain, finding fairways will be at a premium and at [100.0] his accurate game could prosper and he's just about worth risking.

Y E Yang was a pick last time out in Phoenix, where he made the top-ten, and also in this event last year, when he finished 15th and Mark Wilson looked overpriced given he's going for a third win in five starts and that his game really should fit the venue.

Zach Johnson doesn't have the greatest of records here but was too big at [160.0] and finally, the damp weather will probably be against Fred Couples, but ole Boom Boom's record here is magnificent and I couldn't leave him out.

Selections:

Bubba Watson @ [46.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [100.0]
Y E Yang @ [110.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
Zach Johnson @ [160.0]
Fred Couples @an average of [250.0]

I'll kick off the Live Golf Blog on Thursday afternoon.

Our man picks out a moustache sporting New Delhi hat-trick seeker and in the States, he surprisingly swerves his favourite player.......

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T........

Alvaro puts the Punter through the mill but it was all worth it in the end........

Betfair website

The Punter's picks for the Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach National

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Alvaro Quiros takes aim at the Dubai skyline during last year’s Desert Classic

“With everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans Alvaro may just sneak passed them all.”

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai....

There isn't any doubt which event fills centre stage this week, with the world's top-three teeing it up in Dubai. All the action's being played out in the very friendly morning UK timeslot and we're in for a real treat at the Dubai Desert Classic but finding any value hasn't been easy.

Once Martin Kaymer had demolished the field in Abu Dhabi last month, for the third time in four years, he was always top of my list for this week, but not at this price. His record is superb - not quite Abu Dhabiesque but pretty sensational all the same. He showed an immediate liking for the gaff when he chased home Tiger Woods on his debut three years ago and he's followed that effort up with two 4th placed finishes. But I just have enough little niggles to let him go un-backed this week.

My main concern was the fact that he was always likely to be drawn alongside Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods, and he has. And to make it only slightly tougher they're playing in the afternoon on day one too, which is rarely the best side of the draw. The prospect of topping the world rankings hasn't appeared to have affected his game yet but then it's only just become a real issue but I have a nagging concern that all this new talk of him gazumping Westwood and topping the tree might just unsettle him.

One other issue is the 9th hole. It's a tricky par four with water in play and Martin just can't seem to master it. He played it in five over par last year! I took [12.5] twelve months ago on the back of a very similar set of form figures and just feel he's too short this time around at about half that price.

This is strong line-up to say the least and the aforementioned Woods and Westwood, as well as Rory McIlroy all have great course form, with Westwood the only one of the three not to have taken the title - though he really should have done so last year. Despite their strong course form, none make any appeal. Woods was woeful last time out at Torrey Pines, Westwood appears to have gone AWOL since topping the charts and Rory is sure to contend but will his putting and his bottle hold up? I have my doubts.

Another player that most certainly had a chance to win last year is my first selection, last week's nearly man - Alvaro Quiros.

In an interview last week on Sky, Alvaro confessed to having experienced only one occasion when he started to think of victory before it was sealed - at this event last year. When he found the green on the par five 13th on Sunday he was matched at a low of [1.58] but he three-putted and completely lost it after that. Some may say he did much the same thing last week in Qatar but I'm prepared to give him another chance.

He showed in no uncertain terms in Qatar that he can repeat form at certain venues and I expect him to contend again here, and with everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans he may just sneak passed them all.

Second up is last year's champ Miguel Angel Jimenez - I felt [40.0] was just too big for the likeable veteran. I'm completely happy to dismiss his effort at Doha last week. Although he's held the early lead there a couple of times before, he's never really fared too well there and he could well have suffered a reaction to his near miss the week before in Bahrain when he finished in a tie for 2nd. The big concern with Mig is putting. He got so frustrated at missing short ones in Bahrain that he threw his 'old faithful' at his bag and broke it during round three. Hopefully he's now found a suitable replacement that can get a few more to drop.

I've also backed Thonchai Jaidee, whose case is made in this week's 'Find Me A 100 Winner' piece and last but not least, another Spaniard in the shape of last week's third place finisher, Raphael Cabrera-Bello. He's a risky play, with only a missed cut to his name at this venue, but at [150.0] he's not going to do too much damage to the bank balance if he flops.

Selections:

Alvaro Quiros @ [21.0]
Miguel Angel-Jimenez @ [40.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [100.0]
Raphael Cabrera-Bello @ [150.0]

I've been through the runners at this week's other event, the A T & T Pebble Beach National, umpteen times and I'll be jiggered if I can find anyone really worth backing. I went round and round that many times I almost found myself pressing that little blue button next to Phil Mickelson's name. And I'm not entirely convinced I won't do yet before they tee off! We have to be careful here though; so far in 2011 the US Tour hasn't produced a double-figure priced winner, let alone a single-figure priced one. So far, it's the year of the shocks stateside.

Lefty was awful last week after starting so well and I was certain I'd be swerving him this week but then I looked at the field in detail and a play on him makes as much sense as anything else.

He's won this title three times and on the last such occasion, in 2007, it followed immediately after a dreadful missed cut in Phoenix. Mercurial at the best of times his record here is a real mixed bag. He's as liable to bolt up as he is to miss the cut but at a slightly bigger price he certainly makes more appeal than defending champ Dustin Johnson - who I simply don't trust in contention anymore. A case of sorts can be made for the next six or so in the betting but none of them grab me at the prices but I have managed to dig out a couple.

Brian Gay is in fair form, having finished in the top-20 in each of his last four spins. His record on the west coast is far from magnificent but with a best ever 16th place here last year, I felt he was just worth a small play at [55.0]. And I've a sneaky feeling about Matt Bettencourt this year, so he's been backed at [200.0].

Selections:

Brian Gay @ [55.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [200.0]

I'll be back on Thursday to kick off the Live Blog.

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!...

I know it's Monday afternoon but we're not done yet! Can Mark Wilson hang on in Phoenix?...

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Find Me A 100 Winner: Two picks at the WM Phoenix Open

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Robert Garrigus, chuffed as a badger to hole a birdie putt at the the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

The risk-reward layout of TPC Scottsdale ensures twists and turns in the betting and Paul Krishnamurty is hoping either of his two picks get close enough to the action to trade low in the market

Choosing which of this week's two tournaments to search for a triple-figure priced winner was something of a no-brainer, as this column has gone frustratingly close in the last two renewals of the WM Phoenix Open. In 2009, sole pick Scott Piercy led by four at one stage, trading below [3.0], while Rickie Fowler went odds-on before finishing second last year. The following trading system would have made a substantial profit on both occasions, and with an extra pick this time I'm confident of doing so again.

This long-established fixture really is the ideal opportunity to employ such a trading system, as more players than usual tend to trade in short numbers here. The field generally finishes tightly-packed, with swift turnarounds always likely around Scottsdale's risk-reward layout. The last three renewals all produced plenty of weekend volatility.

First up I'm going for a player who knows this course inside out, David Toms at [120.0]. Though yet to win the event, Toms has a very solid Scottsdale record, making the top-20 seven times this century, including four top-tens. He also took the eye on his seasonal debut at the Bob Hope Classic, starting slowly before closing with 66/66/68. Toms may not be quite the major-winning force of old, but remains well capable of winning at this level, as illustrated by a couple of top-three finishes towards the end of the 2010 season.

My second pick is a rather different type of character, wildly inconsistent Robert Garrigus at [140.0]. Such odds are massive when considering that his last four events include a win and a second place. Granted, he's missed both cuts since, but that has always been his style and Garrigus remains worth considering on courses that suit. He is a better player than when finishing 11th on his 2007 course debut. It bodes well that another massive hitter, JB Holmes, has overpowered this course for two recent victories.

The specific trading advice is to have 1.5 units on each player, at odds that combine to a minimum of [60.0]. Then place two lay orders on each player; one at [10.0] and another at [3.0]. Should any lay target be matched, we'll be guaranteed at least seven units profit.

Recommended Bets:
1.5u David Toms @ [120.0]
1.5u Robert Garrigus @ [140.0]

Place order to lay David Toms 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay Robert Garrigus 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay David Toms 10u @ [3.0]
Place order to lay Robert Garrigus 10u @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -5 units

Betfair website

The Punter's picks for the Qatar Masters and the WM Phoenix Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The unique 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale

“Players need thick skins if they’re going to mess up at the par three 16th hole, where thousands upon thousands dish out jeers and cheers in equal drunken measures.”

Steve looks to rekindle happy memories of past glories in Qatar and to erase painful ones of near misses in Phoenix....

Now in its 14th year, the Qatar Masters has always been staged at Doha GC, so there's plenty of course form to peruse and the first thing that stuck me is that the last six winners have all been top-class, so it's highly likely that the run of punter-friendly results on the Race to Dubai could well continue for at least another week.

I knew who'd be my main pick here as long ago as last year really. I backed Alvaro Quiros when he won this event two years ago and I was again onboard twelve months ago when he finished 2nd. He's the second of my Five Bets for 2011, though the less said about the first the better! And I see Paul Krishnamurty also ear-marked the swashbuckling Spaniard for this event in his 'Five to following during the Desert Swing' piece.

Another of Paul's five is Louis Oosthuizen and after a bit of dithering I've backed him too, but not at the price I pondered far too long over on Monday. Some lucky soles have managed to get [30.0] and [29.0] about King Louis, I've settled for [27.0]. He was the runner-up two years ago, 14th last year and 8th in '05. I was very disappointed by his performance in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago but I'm prepared to give him another chance.

If I hadn't backed Oosthuizen I would almost certainly have backed last year's winner Robert Karlsson. His whole game was in fine fettle last week but he putted particularly well when finishing 5th in Bahrain. I never seem to get Bob right though, so I've reluctantly left him out.

Last year's third, Brett Rumford looked a little big at [180.0] and one from far, far leftfield is Pablo Martin. The Spaniard's three outings to date here have yielded precisely zilch - two missed cuts and a withdrawal but at [350.0] I thought he was well worth a few pounds and here's why. It's a bit longwinded but bear with me...

It's less than two months since Martin defended the Alfred Dunhill Championship, an event Alvaro Quiros also won in 2007, and he should also have won the Portugal Masters in October - where he traded odds on. Another event Quiros has won. And the runner-up in Portugal (for the second time) was Karlsson, defending champ here. There looks to be a correlation between the two venues and maybe also this one and Leopard Creek. Like Quiros, Ernie Els has won this title as well as the Alfred Dunhill Championship. It could be a nonsensical theory but at the price I can live with it if is.

Selections:

Alvaro Quiros @ [20.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [27.0]
Brett Rumford @ [180.0]
Pablo Martin @ [350.0]

Like the Qatar Masters, this week's US PGA Tour event, the WM Phoenix Open, also has plenty of course form to consider - it's been played at TPC Scottsdale since 1987. It's a unique and very well patronised stadium course where players need thick skins if they're going to mess up at the par three 16th hole, where thousands upon thousands dish out jeers and cheers in equal drunken measures.

My ole mate Phil Mickelson didn't do much wrong when getting beat by the narrowest of margins by Bubba Watson on Sunday and I couldn't see any reason not to back him again this week, in an event he's already won twice.

Last week he ranked 2nd for GIR (Greens in Regulation) and 11th for putting. A repeat of that performance will see him go close again. He'll need to lift himself though, as he looked pretty disappointed on Sunday night.

I've also backed last year's runner-up, Y E Yang, who played OK last week and who looked a shade big at a triple-figure price. I don't want to dwell too long on last year, it was a painful result. As well as backing Yang, I was also backed Rickie Fowler at a big price and they both traded odds on but failed to cross the line!

Paul Krishnamurty was also on Fowler last year - he was his 'Find Me A 100 Winner' pick and purely by coincidence I see I've backed one of his selections again this year....

After backing Scottsdale resident Robert Garrigus in-running at the opening event of the season, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, where he lost in a play-off, I've backed him, and been very disappointed in him, in his last two events. I was going to give up on him but I see he was 11th here on debut way back in 2007. He missed the cut a year later in his only other outing but he's a different proposition nowadays and sleeping in his own bed won't hinder his chances.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [9.2]
Y E Yang @ [100.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [140.0]

I'll be back sometime on Thursday with the start of my Live Golf Blog.

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