NBA Betting Preview: Phoenix visit is chance for Spurs to step up

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

The pressure is on the for the Spurs

"I am expecting a huge effort from the Spurs in this crucial fixture."

With LA hot on their heels, San Antonio need to raise their game this weekend. Nick Shiambouros selects the best bets at the start of an exciting weekend in the NBA...

The Boston Celtics beat the San Antonio Spurs 107-97 at the AT&T Center on Thursday evening. Both teams traded punches all night long but it was the Celtics who proved the stronger in the final quarter.

Point guard Rajon Rondo had a huge night for Boston, scoring 22 points with 14 assists, in a very important victory which leaves the Celtics just two games behind Chicago in the Eastern Conference.

This was the fifth straight loss for San Antonio who are in real danger of losing the number one seeding in the Western Conference. The Spurs are now just 2.5 games ahead of Los Angeles with seven games left in the regular season.
On Thursday, the in form Los Angeles Lakers beat the Dallas Mavericks 110-82 in one of the most ill-tempered games I've seen all year. The game got out of hand in the fourth quarter when the teams were involved in an altercation on the floor. Four players were ejected as a result of this ugly incident.

This was the eighth win in a row for Los Angeles who are firing on all cylinders. The defending champions look unstoppable at the moment and have shortened to [3.85] to win the NBA championship.

This weekend , the Los Angeles Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs continue their battle for Western Conference supremacy and home court advantage.

On Sunday, the San Antonio Spurs play host to the Phoenix Suns in a nationally televised game. This is a must win game for San Antonio who have the best home record in basketball at 33-5. Despite their shocking recent form they will be heavily fancied.

The Suns have played very poorly since the All-Star break and appear to be looking forward to a long summer holiday. They still have a mathematical chance of making the post-season but it would take a miracle.

I am expecting a huge effort from the Spurs in this crucial fixture. Tim Duncan and company fully understand the importance of this game and should have way too many weapons for the disappointing Suns. I'm sure this veteran team will run up the score and should be backed at around [1.9] with the advertised handicap.

Later on Sunday, the Lakers host the Denver Nuggets. LA have been presented with a real chance of catching San Antonio in the West and will fight for every point in this game.

The great Kobe Bryant has been on fire for Los Angeles in the past few weeks and is playing like a man who is desperate to win his third consecutive championship.

At the defensive end of the floor, Ron Artest who has finally recaptured his early season form. He's not the easiest player to coach but he is one of the best defensive players in the game.

The Denver Nuggets are currently in fifth place in the Western Conference and are playing some decent basketball despite losing superstar guard Carmelo Anthony to New York earlier this year.

Head coach George Karl has done a wonderful job with the rotation and they could make a little noise in the post-season. I think the Lakers will be very difficult to beat and should be backed at around [1.9] with the advertised handicap.

Recommended Bets
Sunday back San Antonio with advertised handicap at [1.9]
Sunday back Los Angeles with advertised handicap at [1.9]

Nick Shiambouros previews the semi-finals of college basketball's big competition...

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Nick Shiambouros looks at some of the big weekend fixtures in the NBA...

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Qatar Masters and the WM Phoenix Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cheesehead Mark Wilson enjoys a great 24 hours

“Mark Wilson was winning the Phoenix Open 12 months too late! Amazingly, I ignored him this time around, having backed him before the off last year at a humongous [350.0], when he led at halfway before dropping tamely away.”

It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!

Thomas Bjorn held his nerve and putted superbly to hold off the field and take the Qatar Masters yesterday. Whilst in the States, Mark Wilson had what must go down as the best 24 hours of his life. His beloved Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl yesterday, before he returned to TPC Scottsdale today to clinch the WM Phoenix Open, beating Jason Duffner in a play-off.

My Bets

All my bets are detailed in this week's Live Golf Blog and it's not been a great week. The only thing that isn't listed there is my lay back of my bet on Phil Mickelson to win the Masters. He spooked me yesterday and I can see him drifting a bit if he doesn't get his act together next week, so I've dumped my bet back at the same price I took - [8.8].

Alvaro Quiros very nearly pulled off a decent gamble but stuttered at just the wrong time and Mark Wilson was winning the Phoenix Open 12 months too late! Amazingly, I ignored him this time around, having backed him before the off last year at a humongous [350.0], when he led at halfway before dropping tamely away- a painful pair of results.

All I can do is take a deep breath and move on....

Player to follow

Quiros was out of form last year but still finished 2nd, and playing in atrocious conditions this year, he was five over par through 15 holes on Thursday, and yet still managed 2nd again. He'll be a strong fancy again next year as I can't believe when his career is over and done he'll just have the 2009 Qatar Masters title to his name. Doha is so well suited to his game I can see him winning this title several times.

There will be plenty of punters that don't agree with my assessment after his finish yesterday. The missed par putt on 15 was terrible and his decision to take a wedge off the 17th tee mindboggling, but those sort of things are always possible with Quiros and as a backer you know it's factored into the price and you just have to accept it. Some would say he choked, and maybe they're right but for me he didn't. He'll still scoop up titles each year and often at a value price.

He also traded odds on last year in this week's event - the Dubai Desert Classic, and it may not be very long at all before he gains compensation for yesterday's near miss.

Players to swerve

There will be plenty of punters disappointed with Mickelson's pathetic effort this week as well and I can't pretend I wasn't one of them but like Quiros, it's all there before you and when you pay your money you take your chance. Lefty's been liable to go from brilliant to awful for years now and he's not going to change now. This game is all about price though and like Quiros, the negative aspect of Lefty's game often leads to him being over-priced. The same can't be said about short-priced American young guns Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler....

Johnson started very well in Phoenix, was matched at just [3.5] but then, yet again, went AWOL. It's a year to the day since I first started to wonder about Dustin's in-contention disposition when he gave up a great chance to win the Northern Trust Open. That dodgy effort was enough to put me off the following week when he scrambled home in most unconvincing fashion at the AT & T (which he defends again this week). He then went on to famously blow a considerable lead at the same venue at the US Open. He did manage another win last year, at the BMW Championship, but that was largely thanks to Paul Casey's choke and he appears to be getting worse in the mix.

As for Fowler, he was very in-and-out this week and that illusive first career win appears to be sliding further away. Both players are amongst the very, very best in the world and only a fool would say they weren't and that they won't win plenty of titles, but will they win as often as their prices suggest? I suspect not.

What have we learnt for next year?

Doha GC really is a course for a certain type of horse, as the saying sort of goes, and this year's leaderboard was again littered with the usual Qatar suspects. Recent past winners Robert Karlsson, Alvaro Quiros and Retief Goosen all contended, and even out of form past winners Paul Lawrie and Darren Fichardt showed up for a while. Thomas Bjorn didn't have sparkling form at Doha before this week, but he'd finished in the top-ten there a couple of times previously. In contrast, the likes of Martin Kaymer and Ian Poulter just can't seem to take to the place. Stick to the course form guys again next year.

With wind often an issue the draw is very important. Those with an afternoon start on day one this year were severely handicapped and I have to wonder how much worse Bjorn's first round score would have been (he shot a two over 74 with a morning start), had he played in the worsening afternoon winds.

I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday morning with a preview of this week's two events - The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach.

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The Punter's Live Golf Blog: The Qatar Masters and the WM Phoenix Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Retief Goosen – 42 today and leading the Qatar field

"Louis Oosthuizen must have played well to keep a bogey off his card through 13 holes but the rot set in once the coverage started and I had to endure him bogeying three off his last five holes."

There's been a Fasth start in windswept Qatar, as Niclas joins Birthday Boy Goosen at the top off the leaderboard.....

17.45 - February 3rd, 2011

I've had a busy day away from the golf today, so I haven't seen much of the coverage. I did watch the first hour or so first thing this morning though and it wasn't much fun. One of my picks, Louis Oosthuizen, must have played well to keep a bogey off his card through 13 holes but the rot set in once the coverage started and I had to endure him bogeying three off his last five holes to drop back to a score of +1. That wasn't a disaster though and he's only four shots behind pace-setters Retief Goosen, who shot an impressive 69, and Niclas Fasth, who still has two holes of round one to play. Play was suspended due to fading light.

It's not been the greatest of starts for my picks with Alvaro Quiros the best of the rest but he's way back in a tie for 52nd after limping around in the afternoon winds in 75 strokes.

I'm a bit disappointed I didn't back Robert Karlsson, who I had considered carefully before the off. He's a shot off the lead and vying for favouritism with the Goose but I'm not tempted to get him onside right now. He performed minor miracles to hold his score together and played very scrappily over the last half a dozen holes.

I haven't made any further plays in Qatar but I have added a couple more in Phoenix, even though they still haven't started, thanks to a delay of 3 ½ hours due to frost. For some bizarre reason last week's winner Bubba Watson drifted right out yesterday and I managed to get a very small bet matched at [42.0], and I couldn't resist the [60.0] available on Ben Crane.

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Find Me A 100 Winner: Two picks at the WM Phoenix Open

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Robert Garrigus, chuffed as a badger to hole a birdie putt at the the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

The risk-reward layout of TPC Scottsdale ensures twists and turns in the betting and Paul Krishnamurty is hoping either of his two picks get close enough to the action to trade low in the market

Choosing which of this week's two tournaments to search for a triple-figure priced winner was something of a no-brainer, as this column has gone frustratingly close in the last two renewals of the WM Phoenix Open. In 2009, sole pick Scott Piercy led by four at one stage, trading below [3.0], while Rickie Fowler went odds-on before finishing second last year. The following trading system would have made a substantial profit on both occasions, and with an extra pick this time I'm confident of doing so again.

This long-established fixture really is the ideal opportunity to employ such a trading system, as more players than usual tend to trade in short numbers here. The field generally finishes tightly-packed, with swift turnarounds always likely around Scottsdale's risk-reward layout. The last three renewals all produced plenty of weekend volatility.

First up I'm going for a player who knows this course inside out, David Toms at [120.0]. Though yet to win the event, Toms has a very solid Scottsdale record, making the top-20 seven times this century, including four top-tens. He also took the eye on his seasonal debut at the Bob Hope Classic, starting slowly before closing with 66/66/68. Toms may not be quite the major-winning force of old, but remains well capable of winning at this level, as illustrated by a couple of top-three finishes towards the end of the 2010 season.

My second pick is a rather different type of character, wildly inconsistent Robert Garrigus at [140.0]. Such odds are massive when considering that his last four events include a win and a second place. Granted, he's missed both cuts since, but that has always been his style and Garrigus remains worth considering on courses that suit. He is a better player than when finishing 11th on his 2007 course debut. It bodes well that another massive hitter, JB Holmes, has overpowered this course for two recent victories.

The specific trading advice is to have 1.5 units on each player, at odds that combine to a minimum of [60.0]. Then place two lay orders on each player; one at [10.0] and another at [3.0]. Should any lay target be matched, we'll be guaranteed at least seven units profit.

Recommended Bets:
1.5u David Toms @ [120.0]
1.5u Robert Garrigus @ [140.0]

Place order to lay David Toms 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay Robert Garrigus 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay David Toms 10u @ [3.0]
Place order to lay Robert Garrigus 10u @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -5 units

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The Punter's picks for the Qatar Masters and the WM Phoenix Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The unique 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale

“Players need thick skins if they’re going to mess up at the par three 16th hole, where thousands upon thousands dish out jeers and cheers in equal drunken measures.”

Steve looks to rekindle happy memories of past glories in Qatar and to erase painful ones of near misses in Phoenix....

Now in its 14th year, the Qatar Masters has always been staged at Doha GC, so there's plenty of course form to peruse and the first thing that stuck me is that the last six winners have all been top-class, so it's highly likely that the run of punter-friendly results on the Race to Dubai could well continue for at least another week.

I knew who'd be my main pick here as long ago as last year really. I backed Alvaro Quiros when he won this event two years ago and I was again onboard twelve months ago when he finished 2nd. He's the second of my Five Bets for 2011, though the less said about the first the better! And I see Paul Krishnamurty also ear-marked the swashbuckling Spaniard for this event in his 'Five to following during the Desert Swing' piece.

Another of Paul's five is Louis Oosthuizen and after a bit of dithering I've backed him too, but not at the price I pondered far too long over on Monday. Some lucky soles have managed to get [30.0] and [29.0] about King Louis, I've settled for [27.0]. He was the runner-up two years ago, 14th last year and 8th in '05. I was very disappointed by his performance in Abu Dhabi a fortnight ago but I'm prepared to give him another chance.

If I hadn't backed Oosthuizen I would almost certainly have backed last year's winner Robert Karlsson. His whole game was in fine fettle last week but he putted particularly well when finishing 5th in Bahrain. I never seem to get Bob right though, so I've reluctantly left him out.

Last year's third, Brett Rumford looked a little big at [180.0] and one from far, far leftfield is Pablo Martin. The Spaniard's three outings to date here have yielded precisely zilch - two missed cuts and a withdrawal but at [350.0] I thought he was well worth a few pounds and here's why. It's a bit longwinded but bear with me...

It's less than two months since Martin defended the Alfred Dunhill Championship, an event Alvaro Quiros also won in 2007, and he should also have won the Portugal Masters in October - where he traded odds on. Another event Quiros has won. And the runner-up in Portugal (for the second time) was Karlsson, defending champ here. There looks to be a correlation between the two venues and maybe also this one and Leopard Creek. Like Quiros, Ernie Els has won this title as well as the Alfred Dunhill Championship. It could be a nonsensical theory but at the price I can live with it if is.

Selections:

Alvaro Quiros @ [20.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [27.0]
Brett Rumford @ [180.0]
Pablo Martin @ [350.0]

Like the Qatar Masters, this week's US PGA Tour event, the WM Phoenix Open, also has plenty of course form to consider - it's been played at TPC Scottsdale since 1987. It's a unique and very well patronised stadium course where players need thick skins if they're going to mess up at the par three 16th hole, where thousands upon thousands dish out jeers and cheers in equal drunken measures.

My ole mate Phil Mickelson didn't do much wrong when getting beat by the narrowest of margins by Bubba Watson on Sunday and I couldn't see any reason not to back him again this week, in an event he's already won twice.

Last week he ranked 2nd for GIR (Greens in Regulation) and 11th for putting. A repeat of that performance will see him go close again. He'll need to lift himself though, as he looked pretty disappointed on Sunday night.

I've also backed last year's runner-up, Y E Yang, who played OK last week and who looked a shade big at a triple-figure price. I don't want to dwell too long on last year, it was a painful result. As well as backing Yang, I was also backed Rickie Fowler at a big price and they both traded odds on but failed to cross the line!

Paul Krishnamurty was also on Fowler last year - he was his 'Find Me A 100 Winner' pick and purely by coincidence I see I've backed one of his selections again this year....

After backing Scottsdale resident Robert Garrigus in-running at the opening event of the season, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, where he lost in a play-off, I've backed him, and been very disappointed in him, in his last two events. I was going to give up on him but I see he was 11th here on debut way back in 2007. He missed the cut a year later in his only other outing but he's a different proposition nowadays and sleeping in his own bed won't hinder his chances.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [9.2]
Y E Yang @ [100.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [140.0]

I'll be back sometime on Thursday with the start of my Live Golf Blog.

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